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At least 811 records · Page 45

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

Foyle, David C.↗

Bayesian optimal experimental design for constitutive model calibration

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high/consequence engineering decisions, which necessitates a high confidence in the calibration of and predictions from complex material models. However, the calibration and validation of material models is often a discrete, multi-stage process that is decoupled from material characterization activities, which means the data collected does not always align with the data that is needed. To address this issue, an integrated workflow for delivering an enhanced characterization and calibration procedure—Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—is introduced and demonstrated. Further, this framework leverages Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), which creates a line of communication between model calibration needs and data collection capabilities in order to optimize the information content gathered from the experiments for model calibration. Eventually, the ICC framework will be used in quasi real-time to actively control experiments of complex specimens for the calibration of a high-fidelity material model. This work presents the critical first piece of algorithm development and a demonstration in determining the optimal load path of a cruciform specimen with simulated data. Calibration results, obtained via Bayesian inference, from the integrated ICC approach are compared to calibrations performed by choosing the load path a priori based on human intuition, as is traditionally done. The calibration results are communicated through parameter uncertainties which are propagated to the model output space (i.e. stress–strain). In these exemplar problems, data generated within the ICC framework resulted in calibrated model parameters with reduced measures of uncertainty compared to the traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative assessment of orbital and terrestrial central power plants

Recent studies of the space power system (SPS) are integrated into a total social cost framework developed for terrestrial central electric power systems. Total social costs include the projection of commercial economics to the time frame of interest as well as the federal research, development and demonstration (RD&D) costs, the health impacts, the resources required, the environmental impacts and other social costs. The SPS system is limited to transporting all materials from the earth's surface to geosynchronous orbit. Only silicon photovoltaic is considered as the SPS energy conversion technique. Costs and impacts of the LWR are considered as a reference for nuclear systems, and the low BTU coal gasification with combined cycle gas and steam turbines is considered as a reference for a fossil central electric plant. The ground solar systems considered are solar thermal using the central receiver approach with thermal storage, and solar photovoltaic using the silicon cell with battery storage.

Caputo, R.↗

Improvement and generalization of ABCD method with Bayesian inference

To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors, such as the capabilities and the performance of the accelerator and detectors, the use and exploitation of the available information, the design of search strategies and observables, as well as the proposal of new models. We focus on the use of the information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD method to improve it and to generalize it using Bayesian Machine Learning techniques and tools. We propose that a dataset consisting of a signal and many backgrounds is well described through a mixture model. Signal, backgrounds and their relative fractions in the sample can be well extracted by exploiting the prior knowledge and the dependence between the different observables at the event-by-event level with Bayesian tools. We show how, in contrast to the ABCD method, one can take advantage of understanding some properties of the different backgrounds and of having more than two independent observables to measure in each event. In addition, instead of regions defined through hard cuts, the Bayesian framework uses the information of continuous distribution to obtain soft-assignments of the events which are statistically more robust. To compare both methods we use a toy problem inspired by pp\to hh\to b\bar b b \bar b p p → h h → b b ‾ b b ‾ , selecting a reduced and simplified number of processes and analysing the flavor of the four jets and the invariant mass of the jet-pairs, modeled with simplified distributions. Taking advantage of all this information, and starting from a combination of biased and agnostic priors, leads us to a very good posterior once we use the Bayesian framework to exploit the data and the mutual information of the observables at the event-by-event level. We show how, in this simplified model, the Bayesian framework outperforms the ABCD method sensitivity in obtaining the signal fraction in scenarios with 1% and 0.5% true signal fractions in the dataset. We also show that the method is robust against the absence of signal. We discuss potential prospects for taking this Bayesian data-driven paradigm into more realistic scenarios.

Alvarez, Ezequiel↗

Lattice Boltzmann and Navier-Stokes Cartesian CFD Approaches for Airframe Noise Predictions

Lattice Boltzmann (LB) and compressible Navier-Stokes (NS) equations based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches are compared for simulating airframe noise. Both LB and NS CFD approaches are implemented within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) framework. Both schemes utilize the same underlying Cartesian structured mesh paradigm with provision for local adaptive grid refinement and sub-cycling in time. We choose a prototypical massively separated, wake-dominated flow ideally suited for Cartesian-grid based approaches in this study - The partially-dressed, cavity-closed nose landing gear (PDCC-NLG) noise problem from AIAA's Benchmark problems for Airframe Noise Computations (BANC) series of workshops. The relative accuracy and computational efficiency of the two approaches are systematically compared. Detailed comments are made on the potential held by LB to significantly reduce time-to-solution for a desired level of accuracy within the context of modeling airframes noise from first principles.

Airframe Noise Prediction↗

Spaced out: An economic framework to explore the impacts of PV panel spacing on large-scale farming in Colorado

CONTEXT Agrivoltaic systems co-locate solar technologies with agricultural operations on an integrated plot of land and potentially provide benefits to both energy and agricultural systems. To date, large-scale (>5-MW) agrivoltaic projects in the United States have been limited to grazing and ecovoltaic applications, raising questions about the impact and scalability of agrivoltaic crop systems. Many agrivoltaic designs raise the height of the solar panels to accommodate agricultural practices while keeping energy density high. However, raising the panels results in increased photovoltaic (PV) development costs, which often are higher than the economic returns of crop production underneath the panels. This leads to unfavorable project economics and the need for other agrivoltaic solutions than raising panels. OBJECTIVE To explore other solutions, we perform an initial feasibility analysis for an agrivoltaic solution that can integrate with large-scale farming practices by increasing the row spacing in between panels. Increased PV row spacing is a low-cost approach for scaling agrivoltaics to accommodate crop production and this spacing can be tailored to required crop equipment for different regions. Increasing row spacing will reduce the power density (PV installed per acre), but in areas that are not land limited, these agrivoltaic designs could be economically feasible. Our analysis establishes a framework for a feasibility analysis for where and with what crops spaced out panel agrivoltaic solutions might be economical. METHODS Using a case study for large-scale agriculture crops in Colorado, we establish a framework for wide-row agrivoltaic economic feasibility analysis. We utilized the System Advisor Model to calculate technoeconomic metrics to compare different row spacing solutions and capture tradeoffs of these system designs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We find that, in some circumstances, wider row agrivoltaic solutions that allow for continued mechanized crop production can provide economic benefits over a traditional utility-scale PV system. For most crops examined in this analysis, roughly $\$$200/acre in agricultural profit justified spacing out the panels to at least 31.7 ft. to accommodate agrivoltaic configurations versus PV only configurations. Additionally, opportunities for increased agricultural revenue with agrivoltaic systems allow PV project economics to tolerate a larger range of CAPEX variability while remaining economically viable relative to the PV only configurations. SIGNIFICANCE This framework can be adapted for a wide variety of crops and regions and allows for examination of economically favorable sites for future agrivoltaic systems that utilize different configuration and expand opportunities for agrivoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Geometry-aware framework for deep energy method: An application to structural mechanics with hyperelastic materials

Here, in this work, we introduce a novel physics-informed framework named the Geometry-Aware Deep Energy Method (GADEM) for solving structural mechanics problems on different geometries. As the weak form of the physical system equation (or the energy-based approach) has demonstrated clear advantages compared to the strong form for solving solid mechanics problems, GADEM employs the weak form and aims to infer the solution on multiple shapes of geometries. Integrating a geometry-aware framework into an energy-based method results in an effective physics-informed deep learning model in terms of accuracy and computational cost. Different ways to represent the geometric information and to encode the geometric latent vectors are investigated in this work. We introduce a loss function of GADEM which is minimized based on the potential energy of all considered geometries. An adaptive learning method is also employed for the sampling of collocation points to enhance the performance of GADEM. We present some applications of GADEM to solve solid mechanics problems, including a loading simulation of a toy tire involving contact mechanics and large deformation hyperelasticity. The numerical results of this work demonstrate the remarkable capability of GADEM to infer the solution on various and new shapes of geometries using only one trained model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A high-resolution large-eddy simulation framework for wildland fire predictions using TensorFlow

Background: Wildfires are becoming more severe, so we need improved tools to predict them over a wide range of conditions and scales. One approach towards this goal entails the use of coupled fire/atmosphere modelling tools. Although significant progress has been made in advancing their physical fidelity, existing tools have not taken full advantage of emerging programming paradigms and computing architectures to enable high-resolution wildfire simulations. Aims: The aim of this study was to present a new framework that enables landscape-scale wildfire simulations with physical representation of combustion at an affordable cost. Methods: We developed a coupled fire/atmosphere simulation framework using TensorFlow, which enables efficient and scalable computations on Tensor Processing Units. Key Results: Simulation results for a prescribed fire were compared with experimental data. Predicted fire behavior and statistical analysis for fire spread rate, scar area, and intermittency showed overall reasonable agreement. Scalability analysis was performed, showing close to linear scaling. Conclusions: While mesh refinement was shown to have less impact on global quantities, such as fire scar area and spread rate, it benefits predictions of intermittent fire behavior, buoyancy-driven dynamics, and small-scale turbulent motion. Implications: This new simulation framework is efficient in capturing both global quantities and unsteady dynamics of wildfires at high spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).

Andersen, Morten Nonboe↗

Dynamic analysis of fully constrained Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for automated prefabricated component installation

This paper presents a dynamic analysis and validation framework to assess a fully constrained six-anchor Cable-Driven Parallel Robot (CDPR) for automated installation of prefabricated facade components. Compared with conventional eight-anchor systems, the six-anchor configuration simplifies setup and reduces cost, but it also reduces control authority, shrinks the wrench-feasible workspace, and tightens orientation limits. Consequently, it is unclear a priori whether dynamically feasible trajectories exist to move the end effector from pickup to the facade. A constrained trajectory optimization is formulated to enforce the system dynamics, cable-tension bounds, and pose/velocity limits, and the framework is evaluated in simulation at three levels: (i) an idealized reference model, (ii) a lab-scale prototype model incorporating measured anchor misalignments and identified damping, and (iii) a full-scale three-story building model with load decomposition for structural feasibility checks. Across these scenarios, the analysis shows that optimal, constraint-satisfying trajectories exist that move the end effector from pickup to installation while maintaining a near-plumb, level orientation at the final pose. Collectively, this multi-scale dynamic analysis and validation framework supports the deployment readiness of the six-anchor CDPR and provides a prototype-based sensitivity case study of how measured anchor placement deviations affect feasibility.

CDPR↗

Thermodynamic assessment of nonstoichiometric oxides for solar thermochemical fuel production

Two-step solar thermochemical cycling (STC) based on nonstoichiometric oxides is an ideal means of solar fuel (e.g., H 2 , CO) production. Screening of nonstoichiometric oxides with excellent thermodynamic performance is key to achieving high solar-to-fuel efficiency. However, application-driven materials assessment intended for reactor-level solar fuel production performance requires mimicking realistic operating conditions of on-sun tests in a laboratory setting, which makes oxides assessment and screening an onerous task to accomplish experimentally. In this work, a rapid assessment and screening model of nonstoichiometric oxides for two-step solar thermochemical cycling assuming fixed-bed flow pattern and quasi-equilibration of the solid with the flowing gas phase is developed, with solar-to-fuel efficiency being the target function of optimization. The model accounts for the thermodynamic parameters of oxide materials and typical operating conditions of experimental thermochemical cycling. This study employed the model to explore and compare two groups of typical nonstoichiometric oxides (CeO 2 - and (LaSr)MnO 3 -based) for their maximum efficiency under their uniquely optimized cycling conditions. The results show that CeO 2 can reach a maximum efficiency of 12.9% at reduction temperature of 1500 °C, which is superior to other candidate materials, including 20 mol% Zr-doped CeO 2 (10.1%), La 0.6 Sr 0.4 MnO 3 (2.5%) and La 0.8 Sr 0.2 MnO 3 (3.3%). Even when the reduction temperature is lowered to 1350 °C, ceria yields the highest efficiency amongst the candidate STC materials considered. The optimal cycling strategy depends on the inherent thermodynamic properties of the oxides. This approach serves as a framework for assessing the maximum efficiency and optimal conditions of candidate thermochemical materials within a range of constraints rather than comparing materials under arbitrary cycling conditions, which may inherently favor one material over another. For oxidation temperatures below 800–1000 °C, the model could be further improved by considering reaction kinetics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Measurement of the inclusive and differential $t\overline{t}γ$ cross sections in the dilepton channel and effective field theory interpretation in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The production cross section of a top quark pair in association with a photon is measured in proton-proton collisions in the decay channel with two oppositely charged leptons (e ± μ ∓ , e + e - , or μ + μ - ). The measurement is performed using 138 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at √s = 13 TeV during the 2016–2018 data-taking period of the CERN LHC. A fiducial phase space is defined such that photons radiated by initial-state particles, top quarks, or any of their decay products are included. An inclusive cross section of 175.2 ± 2.5(stat) ± 6.3(syst) fb is measured in a signal region with at least one jet coming from the hadronization of a bottom quark and exactly one photon with transverse momentum above 20 GeV. Differential cross sections are measured as functions of several kinematic observables of the photon, leptons, and jets, and compared to standard model predictions. The measurements are also interpreted in the standard model effective field theory framework, and limits are found on the relevant Wilson coefficients from these results alone and in combination with a previous CMS measurement of the tt¯γ production process using the lepton+jets final state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Multiscale model predictive control of battery systems for frequency regulation markets using physics-based models

In this work, we propose a multiscale model predictive control (MPC) framework for stationary battery systems that exploits high-fidelity models to trade-off short-term economic incentives provided by energy and frequency regulation (FR) markets and long-term degradation effects. We find that the MPC framework can drastically reduce long-term degradation while properly responding to FR and energy market signals (compared to MPC formulations that use low-fidelity models). Our results also provide evidence that sophisticated battery models can be embedded within closed-loop MPC simulations by using modern nonlinear programming solvers (we provide an efficient and easy-to-use implementation in Julia). We use insights obtained with our simulations to design a low-complexity MPC formulation that matches the behavior obtained with high-fidelity models. This is done by designing a suitable terminal penalty term that implicitly captures long-term degradation. The results suggest that complex degradation behavior can be accounted for in low-complexity MPC formulations by properly designing the cost function. We believe that our proof-of-concept results can be of industrial relevance, as battery vendors are seeking to participate in fast-changing electricity markets while maintaining asset integrity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Calibration of parallel bond parameters in bonded particle models via physics-informed adaptive moment optimisation

This study proposes an automated calibration procedure for bond parameters in bonded discrete element modelling. By exploring the underlying physical correlations between microscopic parameters of bonds and macroscopic strength parameters of the continuum to be modelled, the microscopic shear strength and tensile strength are identified as independent variables for calibration purpose. Then a physics-informed iterative scheme is proposed to automatically approximate the bond parameters by viewing the micro-macro relation as an implicitly defined mathematical mapping function. As a result of highly non-convex features of this implicit mapping, the adaptive moment estimation (Adam), which is especially suitable for problems with noisy gradients, is adopted as the basic iterative scheme, in conjunction with other numerical techniques to approximately evaluate the partial derivatives involved. The whole procedure offers a simple and effective framework for bond parameter calibration. Finally, a numerical example of SiC ceramic is provided for validation. By compared with some existing calibration methods, the proposed method shows significant advantages in terms of calibration efficiency and accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Self-consistent theory of the Darrieus–Landau and Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities with self-generated magnetic fields

The Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) and Darrieus–Landau (DL) instabilities are studied in an inertial confinement fusion context within the framework of small critical-to-shell density ratio D R and weak acceleration regime, i.e., large Froude number Fr. The quasi-isobaric analysis in Sanz et al. is completed with the inclusion of non-isobaric and self-generated magnetic-field effects. The analysis is restricted to perturbation wavelengths k~1 larger than the conduction length scale at the ablation front, yet its validity ranges from wavelengths shorter and larger than the conduction layer width (distance between the ablation front and the critical surface). The use of a sharp boundary model leads to a single analytical expression of the dispersion relation encompassing both instabilities. The two new effects come into play by modifying the perturbed mass and momentum fluxes at the ablation front. The momentum flux (perturbed pressure at the spike) is the predominant stabilizing mechanism in the RT instability (overpressure) and the driving mechanism in the DL instability (underpressure). The non-isobaric effects notably modify the scaling laws in the DL limit, leading to an underpressure scaling as ~k –11/15 rather than ~k –2/5 obtained in the quasi-isobaric model. The magnetic fields are generated due to misalignment between pressure and density gradients (Biermann battery effect). They affect the hydrodynamics by bending the heat flux lines. Within the framework of this paper, they enhance ablation, resulting in a stabilizing effect that peaks for perturbation wavelengths comparable to the conduction layer width. Here, the combination of parameters D R Fr 2/3 defines the region of predominance of each instability in the dispersion relation. It is proven that the DL region falls outside of the parameter range in inertial confinement fusion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Speeding up particle track reconstruction using a parallel Kalman filter algorithm

One of the most computationally difficult problems expected for the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is determining the trajectory of charged particles during event reconstruction. Algorithms used at the LHC today rely on Kalman filtering, which builds physical trajectories incrementally while incorporating material effects and error estimation. Recognizing the need for faster computational throughput, we have adapted Kalman-filter-based methods for highly parallel, many-core SIMD architectures that are now prevalent in high-performance hardware. In this paper, we discuss the design and performance of the improved tracking algorithm, referred to as mkFit. A key piece of the algorithm is the Matriplex library, containing dedicated code to optimally vectorize operations on small matrices. The physics performance of the mkFit algorithm is comparable to the nominal CMS tracking algorithm when reconstructing tracks from simulated proton-proton collisions within the CMS detector. We study the scaling of the algorithm as a function of the parallel resources utilized and find large speedups both from vectorization and multi-threading. mkFit achieves a speedup of a factor of 6 compared to the nominal algorithm when run in a single-threaded application within the CMS software framework.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗