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At least 811 records · Page 45

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A high-resolution pseudo-polygon discrete element model for regional sea ice

Here, this work presents a pseudo-polygon discrete element model for high-resolution sea ice simulations. A scale-invariant bonded particle contact model is proposed to model joints between sea ice floes based on the smeared fracture model and a lattice spring beam model, and the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion is implemented to represent the shearing failure mechanism of sea ice packings under complex loadings. All mechanical parameters of the bond model can be directly determined from laboratory tests. Validations of the proposed model are made by investigations of mechanical response and failure criteria of field sea ice sheets. Compared with the field observations of sea ice from satellite radar and in situ stress sensors, the proposed model is capable of reproducing the typical constitutive behavior and the Coulomb friction envelope of field sea ice. Finally, the proposed discrete element sea ice model is used to study the effect of loading rates on mechanical behavior including failure strength of regional sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cooperative multivalent receptor binding promotes exposure of the SARS-CoV-2 fusion machinery core

The molecular events that permit the spike glycoprotein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to bind and enter cells are important to understand for both fundamental and therapeutic reasons. Spike proteins consist of S1 and S2 domains, which recognize angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors and contain the viral fusion machinery, respectively. Ostensibly, the binding of spike trimers to ACE2 receptors promotes dissociation of the S1 domains and exposure of the fusion machinery, although the molecular details of this process have yet to be observed. We report the development of bottom-up coarse-grained (CG) models consistent with cryo-electron tomography data, and the use of CG molecular dynamics simulations to investigate viral binding and S2 core exposure. We show that spike trimers cooperatively bind to multiple ACE2 dimers at virion-cell interfaces in a manner distinct from binding between soluble proteins, which processively induces S1 dissociation. We also simulate possible variant behavior using perturbed CG models, and find that ACE2-induced S1 dissociation is primarily sensitive to conformational state populations and the extent of S1/S2 cleavage, rather than ACE2 binding affinity. These simulations reveal an important concerted interaction between spike trimers and ACE2 dimers that primes the virus for membrane fusion and entry.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Peridynamic neural operators: A data-driven nonlocal constitutive model for complex material responses

Neural operators, which can act as implicit solution operators of hidden governing equations, have recently become popular tools for learning the responses of complex real-world physical systems. Nevertheless, most neural operator applications have thus far been data-driven and neglect the intrinsic preservation of fundamental physical laws in data. Here, in this work, we introduce a novel integral neural operator architecture called the Peridynamic Neural Operator (PNO) that learns a nonlocal constitutive law from data. This neural operator provides a forward model in the form of state-based peridynamics, with objectivity and momentum balance laws automatically guaranteed. As applications, we demonstrate the expressivity and efficacy of our model in learning complex material behaviors from both synthetic and experimental data sets. We also compare the performances with baseline models that use predefined constitutive laws. We show that, owing to its ability to capture complex responses, our learned neural operator achieves improved accuracy and efficiency. Moreover, by preserving the essential physical laws within the neural network architecture, the PNO is robust in treating noisy data. The method shows generalizability to different domain configurations, external loadings, and discretizations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Mechanism of astatine and bismuth sorption on extraction chromatography resins from nitric acid media

Systematic study of astatine (At) sorption on extraction chromatography resins from nitric acid media has been performed at Texas A&M University. This work covers commercially available resins such as LN, TK400, SR, TRU, and UTEVA. Acquiring an understanding of At behavior in up to 4 M HNO 3 solutions is a key step to develop a rapid and reliable system for At separation and purification. The determined distribution coefficients are greater than 20 for all the resins studied, reaching 400 for TRU and UTEVA resins. The sorption uptake decreases in the order: TRU ≳ UTEVA >TK400 ≳ SR >LN. For each resin a thermodynamic model has been developed to suggest a possible mechanism of At sorption and corresponding sorption constants have been estimated. Literature data along with new results on bismuth (Bi) sorption by studied resins in nitric acid media have been reviewed and a mathematical model to describe its behavior has been suggested. A ratio of corresponding fit functions of At and Bi assigned to the same resin and acidity has been used to estimate separation factors of these elements. Furthermore, only the TRU resin is not suitable for efficient At isolation from Bi, while the other four resins demonstrate promising results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computational determination of a primary diffusion mode in γ U-10Mo under irradiation

Low enriched uranium (< 20 % 235 U)-molybdenum (U-Mo) monolithic fuel is the primary candidate for high performance research and test reactors, and is in the process of being qualified to replace highly enriched uranium (≥ 20 % 23 5U) fuel. As part of the qualification process, it is critical to understand and predict the behavior of fission gas bubbles under irradiation, which affects fuel swelling and fuel failure. Mechanistic fuel models are being developed that can both reproduce the existing experimental data for fuel swelling, and be further applied to irradiation conditions beyond the experimental scope. Diffusion of species under irradiation conditions is an important parameter in the mechanistic fuel models; however, no temperature-relevant experimental diffusion data exists. In the present work, radiation-enhanced diffusion coefficients of U, Mo, and Xe in λU-10wt.%Mo were calculated in the temperature range between 300 K and 1400 K via rate-theory models and molecular dynamics simulations with an embedded-atom method interatomic potential for the U-Mo-Xe system. Accordingly, total diffusion coefficients under relevant irradiation conditions are determined using previously obtained intrinsic thermal diffusion and radiation-driven diffusion coefficients, as well as the newly calculated radiation-enhanced diffusion coefficients presented herein. Radiation-enhanced diffusion of U and Mo was dominant in the intermediate temperature range, whereas radiation-enhanced diffusion of Xe did not significantly contribute to total diffusion of Xe at the relevant fission rate densities. Radiation-enhanced diffusion of Xe became faster than both intrinsic thermal diffusion and radiation-driven diffusion at a fission rate density of 5 x 10 22 fissions/m 3 /s, which is higher than the typical fission rate density range in research reactors. The temperature regime that radiation-enhanced diffusion of each element dominated was dependent on the fission rate density. Finally, the total diffusion coefficients of U, Mo, and Xe, updated in this work, will be utilized as parameters in the mechanistic fuel models to help predict the behavior of fission gas bubbles under irradiation more accurately.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Enhancing Network Anomaly Detection Using Graph Neural Networks

In the world of Internet of Things (IoT) networks, where devices are constantly communicating, keeping them secure from cyber threats is critical. This paper introduces a novel approach to detecting unusual and potentially harmful activities in these networks using graph neural networks (GNNs). We combine two specific types of GNNs-GraphSAGE and graph attention networks (GAT)-to create a model that understands and represents the behaviors and interactions in a network. GraphSAGE creates an embedding of network activities by examining local data interactions, while GAT directs the model's focus to the most critical interactions. By integrating these two methods in a single model that considers different types of interactions (both host and flow nodes), we aim to create a system that accurately represents the current state of a network and can also spot anomalies effectively while reducing false positives and negatives. Our innovative approach has demonstrated promising results, achieving an accuracy of 98% on the UNSW-NB15 dataset, significantly outperforming standalone GraphSAGE and GAT models. This underscores its potential as a robust framework for securing IoT networks against cyber threats and anomalies.

Marfo, William↗

Rhizosphere Soil Biogeochemical Data and Photosynthetic Data of Vicia Faba in a Rhizobox

Here we share the data in column format via csv files for pH, redox, and dissolved oxygen collected at hourly resolution from microelectrodes. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations collected from TOC are also provided in a similar format but are composited samples from hourly microdialysis collection. This provided resolution of diel rhizosphere dynamics belowground. Plant physiological data was also collected at every 5 min for 24 hr cycles in order to capture diel dynamics aboveground. This data was used to parameterize the reaction transport model eSTOMP-ROOTS, which examines the rhizosphere biogeochemistry of a growing Vicia faba plant. The aim was to investigate plant activity and belowground biogeochemical processes, particularly their impact on mineral-organic associations in the rhizosphere. We combined in-situ rhizosphere microsensor and plant physiological measurements with a 3-D plant-soil reactive transport model to explore the behavior of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the rhizosphere. Over several days, microdialysis probes placed at the root-soil interface in live soil showed distinct daily patterns of DOC concentration in the pore water. Spikes in DOC concentrations during the day aligned with peaks in leaf-level photosynthesis, accompanied by decreasing redox potential and dissolved oxygen levels, and increasing pH in the rhizosphere. This new mechanistic modeling framework, which integrates aboveground plant physiological data with non-destructive, high-resolution monitoring of rhizosphere processes, offers significant potential for studying the factors that control carbon storage in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Bridging molecular-scale interfacial science with continuum-scale models

Solid–water interfaces are crucial for clean water, conventional and renewable energy, and effective nuclear waste management. However, reflecting the complexity of reactive interfaces in continuum-scale models is a challenge, leading to oversimplified representations that often fail to predict real-world behavior. This is because these models use fixed parameters derived by averaging across a wide physicochemical range observed at the molecular scale. Recent studies have revealed the stochastic nature of molecular-level surface sites that define a variety of reaction mechanisms, rates, and products even across a single surface. To bridge the molecular knowledge and predictive continuum-scale models, we propose to represent surface properties with probability distributions rather than with discrete constant values derived by averaging across a heterogeneous surface. This conceptual shift in continuum-scale modeling requires exponentially rising computational power. By incorporating our molecular-scale understanding of solid–water interfaces into continuum-scale models we can pave the way for next generation critical technologies and novel environmental solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Conical intersections shed light on hot carrier cooling in quantum dots

Experimental observations of vibronic coherences in electronically excited colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals offer a window into the ultrafast dynamics of hot carrier cooling. In previous work, we showed that, in amine-passivated quantum dots (QDs), these coherences arise during relaxation through a cascade of conical intersections between electronically excited states. Here, in this work, we demonstrate the generality of this framework by application to QDs with surface-bound carboxylate ligands. A model involving a similar cascade of conical intersections accurately reproduces the frequencies of vibronic coherences observed with broadband multidimensional spectroscopy. The impact of ligands on the relaxation dynamics is attributed to two distinct mechanisms involving either electronic or vibrational coupling between the core and ligands. Compared to the amine-passivated QDs studied previously, the electronic coupling mechanism is less prominent in carboxylate-passivated QDs. Furthermore, comparison of acetate and formate ligands reveals that truncating the ligand alkyl chains alters the relaxation behavior predicted by the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Catalytic Resonance Theory: Forecasting the Flow of Programmable Catalytic Loops

Chemical transformations on catalyst surfaces occur through series and parallel reaction pathways. These complex networks and their behavior can be most simply evaluated through a three-species surface reaction loop (A* to B* to C* to A*) that is internal to the overall chemical reaction. Application of an oscillating dynamic catalyst to this reactive loop has been shown to exhibit one of three types of behavior: (1) a positive net flux of molecules about the loop in the clockwise direction, (2) a negative net flux of molecules about the loop in the counterclockwise direction, or (3) negligible flux of molecules about the loop at the limit cycle of reaction. Three-species surface loops were simulated with microkinetic modeling to assess the reaction loop behavior resulting from a catalytic surface oscillating between two or more catalyst surface energy states. Selected input parameters for the simulations spanned an 11-dimensional parameter space using 127 688 different parameter combinations. Their converged limit cycle solutions were analyzed for their loop turnover frequencies, the majority of which were found to be approximately zero. Classification and regression machine learning models were trained to predict the sign and magnitude of the loop turnover frequency and successfully performed above accessible baselines. Notably, the classification models exhibited a baseline weighted F1 score of 0.49, whereas trained models achieved weighted F1 scores of 0.94 and 0.96 when trained on the parameters used to define the simulations and derived rate constants, respectively. The trained models successfully predicted catalytic loop behavior, and interpretation of these models revealed all input parameters to be important for the prediction and performance of each model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Damage buildup in multilayer hexagonal boron nitride films under Ar ion bombardment

Ion irradiation can be used to modify properties of two-dimensional hexagonal boron nitride (2D-hBN). However, the behavior of multilayer 2D-hBN under ion bombardment remains essentially unexplored. Here, in this study, we systematically study the damage buildup in 40-nm-thick multilayer 2D-hBN films irradiated at room temperature with 500 keV Ar ions with doses up to 0.64 displacements per atom. Transmission electron microscopy, soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy are employed to study effects of ion irradiation. Results reveal a monotonic buildup of damage that can be described by the phenomenological zero cascade overlap model. Compared to the behavior of other group-III nitride semiconductors, radiation damage in hBN is influenced by polymorphism, involving transitions between bonding configurations of hexagonal, cubic, and amorphous phases.

Seo, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (L↗