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NASA NTRS2005

Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

MCKissick, Burnell T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Twist Model Development and Results from the Active Aeroelastic Wing F/A-18 Aircraft

Understanding the wing twist of the active aeroelastic wing (AAW) F/A-18 aircraft is a fundamental research objective for the program and offers numerous benefits. In order to clearly understand the wing flexibility characteristics, a model was created to predict real-time wing twist. A reliable twist model allows the prediction of twist for flight simulation, provides insight into aircraft performance uncertainties, and assists with computational fluid dynamic and aeroelastic issues. The left wing of the aircraft was heavily instrumented during the first phase of the active aeroelastic wing program allowing deflection data collection. Traditional data processing steps were taken to reduce flight data, and twist predictions were made using linear regression techniques. The model predictions determined a consistent linear relationship between the measured twist and aircraft parameters, such as surface positions and aircraft state variables. Error in the original model was reduced in some cases by using a dynamic pressure-based assumption. This technique produced excellent predictions for flight between the standard test points and accounted for nonlinearities in the data. This report discusses data processing techniques and twist prediction validation, and provides illustrative and quantitative results.

Lizotte, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Characteristics of trapped proton anisotropy at Space Station Freedom altitudes

The ionizing radiation dose for spacecraft in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is produced mainly by protons trapped in the Earth's magnetic field. Current data bases describing this trapped radiation environment assume the protons to have an isotropic angular distribution, although the fluxes are actually highly anisotropic in LEO. The general nature of this directionality is understood theoretically and has been observed by several satellites. The anisotropy of the trapped proton exposure has not been an important practical consideration for most previous LEO missions because the random spacecraft orientation during passage through the radiation belt 'averages out' the anisotropy. Thus, in spite of the actual exposure anisotropy, cumulative radiation effects over many orbits can be predicted as if the environment were isotropic when the spacecraft orientation is variable during exposure. However, Space Station Freedom will be gravity gradient stabilized to reduce drag, and, due to this fixed orientation, the cumulative incident proton flux will remain anisotropic. The anisotropy could potentially influence several aspects of Space Station design and operation, such as the appropriate location for radiation sensitive components and experiments, location of workstations and sleeping quarters, and the design and placement of radiation monitors. Also, on-board mass could possible be utilized to counteract the anisotropy effects and reduce the dose exposure. Until recently only omnidirectional data bases for the trapped proton environment were available. However, a method to predict orbit-average, angular dependent ('vector') trapped proton flux spectra has been developed from the standard omnidirectional trapped proton data bases. This method was used to characterize the trapped proton anisotropy for the Space Station orbit (28.5 degree inclination, circular) in terms of its dependence on altitude, solar cycle modulation (solar minimum vs. solar maximum), shielding thickness, and radiation effect (silicon rad and rem dose).

Armstrong, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

One phase of the large area crop inventory project is presented. Wheat yield models based on the input of environmental variables potentially obtainable through the use of space remote sensing were developed and demonstrated. By the use of a unique method for visually qualifying daily plant development and subsequent multifactor computer analyses, it was possible to develop practical models for predicting crop development and yield. Development of wheat yield prediction models was based on the discovery that morphological changes in plants are detected and quantified on a daily basis, and that this change during a portion of the season was proportional to yield.

Haun, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evidence that Horizontal Moisture Advection Regulates the Ubiquitous Amplification of Rainfall Variability over Tropical Oceans

The column moist static energy (MSE) budget equation approximates the processes associated with column moistening and drying in the tropics, and is therefore predictive of precipitation amplification and decay. We use ERA-Interim (ERA-I) and TRMM 3B42 data to investigate day-to-day convective variability and distinguish the roles of horizontal MSE (or moisture) advection versus vertical advection, sources, and sinks. Over tropical convergence zones, results suggest that horizontal moisture advection is a primary driver of day-to-day precipitation fluctuations; when drying via horizontal moisture advection is smaller (greater) than Chikira’s “column process,” precipitation tends to amplify (decay). In the absence of horizontal moisture advection, precipitation tends to increase spontaneously almost universally through a positive column process feedback. This bulk positive feedback is characterized by negative effective gross moist stability (GMS), which is maintained throughout the tropical convergence zones. How this positive feedback is achieved varies geographically, depending on the shape of vertical velocity (omega) profiles. In regions where omega profiles are top-heavy, the effective GMS is negative primarily owing to strong feedbacks between convection and diabatic MSE sources (radiative and surface fluxes). In these regions, vertical MSE advection stabilizes the atmosphere (positive vertical GMS). Where omega profiles are bottom-heavy, by contrast, a positive feedback is primarily driven by import of MSE through a shallow circulation (negative vertical GMS). The diabatic feedback and vertical GMS are in a seesaw balance, offsetting one another. Our results suggest that ubiquitous convective variability is amplified by the same mechanism as moisture-mode instability.

horizontal moisture advection↗

NASA NTRS1975

A variable conductance heat pipe flight experiment - Performance in space

The Ames Heat Pipe Experiment (AHPE) is a variable conductance heat pipe/radiator system which was launched aboard the OAO-C spacecraft in August, 1972. All available flight data was reviewed and those from a few orbits were selected for correlation with predictions from an analytical model of the system. The principal conclusion of this study is that gas controlled variable conductance heat pipes can perform reliably for long time periods in the space environment and can effectively provide temperature stabilization for spacecraft electronics. Furthermore, the performance of such systems can be adequately predicted using existing analysis tools.

Wanous, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Experimental results for labyrinth gas seals with honeycomb stators - Comparisons to smooth-stator seals and theoretical predictions

Experimental measurements are presented for the rotordynamic stiffness and damping coefficients of a teeth-on-rotor labyrinth seal with a honeycomb stator. Inlet circumferential velocity, inlet pressure, rotor speed, and seal clearance are primary variables. Results are compared to data for teeth-on-rotor labyrinth seals with smooth stators and to analytical predictions from a two-control-volume compressible flow model. The experimental results show that the honeycomb-stator configuration is more stable than the smooth-stator configuration at low rator speeds. At high rotor speeds, the stator surface does not affect stability. The theoretical model predicts the cross-coupled stiffness of the honeycomb-stator seal correctly within 25 percent of measured values. The model provides accurate predictions of direct damping for large clearance seals; however, the model predictions and test results diverge with increasing running speed. Overall, the model does not perform as well for low clearance seals as for high clearance seals.

Hawkins, Larry↗

NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Association Between Asthma and Air Quality in the Presence of Wildfires

Asthma hospital/emergency room (patient) data are used as the foundation for creating a health outcome indicator of human response to environmental air quality. Daily U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) fine particulates (PM2.5) ground data and the U.S. National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA) MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data were acquired and processed for years of 2007 and 2008. Figure 1 shows the PM2.5 annual mean composite of all the 2007 B-spline daily surfaces. Initial models for predicting the number of weekly asthma cases within a Florida county has focused on environmental variables. Weekly maximums of PM2.5, relative humidity, and the proportions of the county with smoke and fire were the environmental variables included in the model. Cosine and sine functions of time were used to account for seasonality in asthma cases. Counties were considered to be random effects, thereby adjusting for differences in socio ]demographics and other factors. The 2007 predictions for Miami ]Dade county when using B ]splines PM2.5 are displayed in Figures 2.

Young, L. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Super-Resolution from Space: Using MERRA-2 and MAIAC Satellite Imagery to Produce Daily Continuous 1 km PM2.5 Estimates

PM2.5 measurements from ground stations are the gold standard when available, but the expense and coverage of such stations limits widespread monitoring. Having accurate PM2.5 estimates outside the range of these stations is important for monitoring this crucial aspect of air quality. The goal of this project is to produce daily 1 km continuous PM2.5 estimates for the contiguous US relying primarily on satellite-derived data sources. This is important because models based on such data can be more easily expanded outside the study area and produce global estimates as well. The temporal availability of such data products is often weekly/daily, unlike land-use products with are often available at a yearly or worse temporal resolution. To achieve our goal, we use a couple of different deep neural network architectures to produce PM2.5 measurements at 10 km and 1 km resolution. We use two model architectures, a UNET-like model and a GAN-based model. We train both models using MERRA-2 data and MAIAC AOD data scaled to 10 km and 1 km for the two different prediction resolutions. MERRA-2 imagery is data rich with a wide range of geospatial variables at 50 km and has long historical availability (beginning in 1980). We’re also using higher spatial resolution MAIAC data at 1 km to provide finer resolution spatial context. This essentially leverages the spatial resolution of MAIAC data and the “wider” information of MERRA-2 data to predict PM2.5. For the target data we’re using a modeled 1 km PM2.5 dataset produced by Harvard to pre-train our models and then fine-tune our models using ground station measurements. Not only are our results comparable with the performance of the Harvard dataset, but can be generalized to any area or time where MERRA-2 and MAIAC data is available.

satellite imagery↗

NASA NTRS1994

A probabilistic fatigue analysis of multiple site damage

The variability in initial crack size and fatigue crack growth is incorporated in a probabilistic model that is used to predict the fatigue lives for unstiffened aluminum alloy panels containing multiple site damage (MSD). The uncertainty of the damage in the MSD panel is represented by a distribution of fatigue crack lengths that are analytically derived from equivalent initial flaw sizes. The variability in fatigue crack growth rate is characterized by stochastic descriptions of crack growth parameters for a modified Paris crack growth law. A Monte-Carlo simulation explicitly describes the MSD panel by randomly selecting values from the stochastic variables and then grows the MSD cracks with a deterministic fatigue model until the panel fails. Different simulations investigate the influences of the fatigue variability on the distributions of remaining fatigue lives. Six cases that consider fixed and variable conditions of initial crack size and fatigue crack growth rate are examined. The crack size distribution exhibited a dominant effect on the remaining fatigue life distribution, and the variable crack growth rate exhibited a lesser effect on the distribution. In addition, the probabilistic model predicted that only a small percentage of the life remains after a lead crack develops in the MSD panel.

Rohrbaugh, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of a New Cloud Droplet Activation Parameterization wtih in Situ Data from CRYSTAL-FACE and CSTRIPE

The accuracy of the 2003 prognostic, physically based aerosol activation parameterization of A. Nenes and J. H. Seinfeld (NS) with modification introduced by C. Fountoukis and A. Nenes in 2005 (modified NS) is evaluated against extensive microphysical data sets collected on board the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft for cumuliform and stratiform clouds of marine and continental origin. The cumuliform cloud data were collected during NASA's Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE, Key West, Florida, July 2002), while the stratiform cloud data were gathered during Coastal Stratocumulus Imposed Perturbation Experiment (CSTRIPE, Monterey, California, July 2003). In situ data sets of aerosol size distribution, chemical composition, and updraft velocities are used as input for the NS parameterization, and the evaluation is carried out by comparing predicted cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC) with observations. This is the first known study in which a prognostic cloud droplet activation parameterization has been evaluated against a wide range of observations. On average, predicted droplet concentration in adiabatic regions is within -20% of observations at the base of cumuliform clouds and -30% of observations at different altitudes throughout the stratiform clouds, all within experimental uncertainty. Furthermore, CDNC is well parameterized using either a single mean updraft velocity w or by weighting droplet nucleation rates with a Gaussian probability density function of w. This study suggests that for nonprecipitating warm clouds of variable microphysics, aerosol composition, and size distribution the modified NS parameterization can accurately predict cloud droplet activation and can be successfully implemented for describing the aerosol activation process in global climate models.

Meskhidze, Nicholas↗

NASA NTRS1999

A User's Manual for ROTTILT Solver: Tiltrotor Fountain Flow Field Prediction

A CFD solver has been developed to provide the time averaged details of the fountain flow typical for tiltrotor aircraft in hover. This Navier-Stokes solver, designated as ROTTILT, assumes the 3-D fountain flowfield to be steady and incompressible. The theoretical background is described in this manual. In order to enable the rotor trim solution in the presence of tiltrotor aircraft components such as wing, nacelle, and fuselage, the solver is coupled with a set of trim routines which are highly efficient in CPU and suitable for CFD analysis. The Cartesian grid technique utilized provides the user with a unique capability for insertion or elimination of any components of the bodies considered for a given tiltrotor aircraft configuration. The flowfield associated with either a semi or full-span configuration can be computed through user options in the ROTTILT input file. Full details associated with the numerical solution implemented in ROTTILT and assumptions are presented. A description of input surface mesh topology is provided in the appendices along with a listing of all preprocessor programs. Input variable definitions and default values are provided for the V22 aircraft. Limited predicted results using the coupled ROTTILT/WOPWOP program for the V22 in hover are made and compared with measurement. To visualize the V22 aircraft and predictions, a preprocessor graphics program GNU-PLOT3D was used. This program is described and example graphic results presented.

Tadghighi, Hormoz↗

NASA NTRS1993

Tension fracture of laminates for transport fuselage. Part 2: Large notches

Tests were conducted on over 200 center-crack specimens to evaluate: (a) the tension-fracture performance of candidate materials and laminates for commercial fuselage applications; and (b) the accuracy of several failure criteria in predicting response. Crack lengths of up to 12 inches were considered. Other variables included fiber/matrix combination, layup, lamination manufacturing process, and intraply hybridization. Laminates fabricated using the automated tow-placement process provided significantly higher tension-fracture strengths than nominally identical tape laminates. This confirmed earlier findings for other layups, and possibly relates to a reduced stress concentration resulting from a larger scale of repeatable material inhomogeneity in the tow-placed laminates. Changes in material and layup result in a trade-off between small-notch and large-notch strengths. Toughened resins and 0 deg-dominate layups result in higher small-notch strengths but lower large-notch strengths than brittle resins, 90 deg and 45 deg dominated layups, and intraply S2-glass hybrid material forms. Test results indicate that strength-prediction methods that allow for a reduced order singularity of the crack-tip stress field are more successful at predicting failure over a range of notch sizes than those relying on the classical square-root singularity. The order of singularity required to accurately predict large-notch strength from small-notch data was affected by both material and layup. Measured crack-tip strain distributions were generally higher than those predicted using classical methods. Traditional methods of correcting for finite specimen width were found to be lacking, confirming earlier findings with other specimen geometries. Fracture tests of two stiffened panels, identical except for differing materials, with severed central stiffeners resulted in nearly identical damage progression and failure sequences. Strain-softening laws implemented within finite element models appear attractive to account for load redistribution in configured structure due to damage-induced crack tip softening

Walker, Tom H.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Theory and design of variable conductance heat pipes: Steady state and transient performance

Heat pipe technology pertinent to the design and application of self-controlled, variable conductance heat pipes for spacecraft thermal control is discussed. Investigations were conducted to: (1) provide additional confidence in existing design tools, (2) to generate new design tools, and (3) to develop superior variable conductance heat pipe designs. A computer program for designing and predicting the performance of the heat pipe systems was developed.

Edwards, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Utility of ERTS for monitoring the breeding habit of migratory waterfowl

Waterfowl breeding-ground surveys conducted each year by the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife extend over a vast region of the United States and Canada. Data from these surveys are used to estimate waterfowl production by means of a mathematical model. Counts of May and July ponds are some the variables used in this model. Annual production estimates are used to predict fall flights of ducks. This information is then used for establishing waterfowl hunting regulations. Work to date indicates that satellite remote sensing techniques hold considerable promise for the accurate and rapid assessment of waterfowl breeding habitat, especially changes in pond numbers and distribution. Development of an operational system utilizing satellite sensors as a primary source of data appears to be a realistic goal for the future.

Work, E. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Remote Sensing Program

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were related to vineyard yield and other agronomic variables in an attempt to determine the optimum wavelengths for yield prediction modeling. Reflections between vine canopy reflectance and several management practices were also considered. Spectral analysis of test vines found that, although some correlations with vine yield were significant, they were inadequate for producing a yield prediction model. The findings also indicate that the vines examined through the field spectroradiometers were not truly representative. Geologic linears identified from aerial photographys, LANDSAT images, and maps were compared to gas well locations in three New York' counties. Correlations were found between the dominant trends in regional liners and gas field boundaries and trends. Other projects being conducted under the grant include determining vegetable acreage in mucklands, site selection for windmills, spectral effects of sulfur dioxide, and screening tomato seedlings for salt tolerance.

Philipson, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Encapsulation Processing and Manufacturing Yield Analysis

The development of encapsulation processing and a manufacturing productivity analysis for photovoltaic cells are discussed. The goals were: (1) to understand the relationships between both formulation variables and process variables; (2) to define conditions required for optimum performance; (3) to predict manufacturing yield; and (4) to provide documentation to industry.

Willis, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Techniques for the estimation of leaf area index using spectral data

Based on the radiative transport theory of a homogeneous canopy, a new approach for obtaining transformations of spectral data used to estimate leaf area index (LAI), is developed. The transformations which are obtained without any ground knowledge of LAI show low sensitivity to soil variability, and are linearly related to LAI with relationships which are predictable from leaf reflectance, transmittance properties, and canopy reflectance models. Evaluation of the SAIL (scattering by arbitrarily inclined leaves) model is considered. Using only nadir view data, results obtained on winter and spring wheat and corn crops are presented.

Badhwar, G. D.↗