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At least 793 records · Page 44

A spatially regularized detector for emergent/re-emergent disease outbreaks

Early detection of outbreaks caused by emergent pathogens, using epidemiological surveillance data i.e., daily case counts, is difficult. This is because the data tend to be noisy during the early epoch of the outbreak. In contrast, the spread-rate of the disease tends to be well-behaved, as it depends only on the mixing patterns of the population and the characteristics of the pathogen, neither of which behave erratically in space-time. In this report, we explore whether the spread-rate can be used for epidemiological surveillance, conditional on case count data. Estimating the spread-rate from case count data allows us to exploit exogenous information, e.g., incubation period distributions etc., which can considerably smooth out any erratic temporal behavior. Further, epidemiological dynamics are spatially correlated, and if case counts are available for multiple areal units e.g., counties, these correlations could potentially be used to suppress noise in the early epoch data. These exogenous information and structure are not exploited by conventional syndromic surveillance detectors to extract a well-behaved latent variable for monitoring purposes. The technical challenge lies in the estimation of the spread-rate field jointly over a collection of areal units; further, the spread-rate varies over time. We develop a method based on mean-field variational inference to approximately estimate the spread-rate field, using a Gaussian Random Field Model for spatial regularization. The method is tested on the estimation of spread-rate in the thirty-three counties of New Mexico and detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave in September 2020. We find that the method is scalable, but underestimates the uncertainty in the estimated spread-rate field. We detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 wave a week ahead of conventional syndromic surveillance algorithms, but our simplistic detection algorithm, based on simple anomaly detection, suffers from a high false positive rate, similar to conventional detectors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Isolation of Histone from Sorghum Leaf Tissue for Top Down Mass Spectrometry Profiling of Potential Epigenetic Markers

Histones belong to a family of highly conserved proteins in eukaryotes. They pack DNA into nucleosomes as functional units of chromatin. Post-translational modifications (PTMs) of histones, which are highly dynamic and can be added or removed by enzymes, play critical roles in regulating gene expression. In plants, epigenetic factors including histone PTMs are related to their adaptive responses to the environment. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of epigenetic control can bring unprecedented opportunities for engineering solutions to increase the resilience of crops to climate change. Herein, we describe a protocol to isolate the nuclei and purify histones from sorghum leaf tissue. The extracted histones can be analyzed as their intact forms by top-down mass spectrometry (MS) coupled to online reversed-phase (RP) liquid chromatography (LC). Combinations and stoichiometry of multiple PTMs on the same histone proteoform can be readily identified. In addition, histone tail clipping can be detected using the top-down LC-MS workflow thus yielding the global PTM profile of core histones (H4, H2A, H2B, H3). By comparing the PTM profile among samples corresponding to different conditions (e.g. drought vs. control), potential epigenetic marks can be discovered as targets for further characterization using approaches such as chromatin immunoprecipitation – sequencing (ChIP-seq).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Maximum respiration rates in hyporheic zone sediments are primarily constrained by organic carbon concentration and secondarily by organic matter chemistry

Abstract. River corridors are fundamental components of the Earth system, and their biogeochemistry can be heavily influenced by processes in subsurface zones immediately below the riverbed, referred to as the hyporheic zone. Within the hyporheic zone, organic matter (OM) fuels microbial respiration, and OM chemistry heavily influences aerobic and anaerobic biogeochemical processes. The link between OM chemistry and respiration has been hypothesized to be mediated by OM molecular diversity, whereby respiration is predicted to decrease with increasing diversity. Here we test the specific prediction that aerobic respiration rates will decrease with increases in the number of unique organic molecules (i.e., OM molecular richness, as a measure of diversity). We use publicly available data across the United States from crowdsourced samples taken by the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemical Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium. Our continental-scale analyses rejected the hypothesis of a direct limitation of respiration by OM molecular richness. In turn, we found that organic carbon (OC) concentration imposes a primary constraint over hyporheic zone respiration, with additional potential influences of OM richness. We specifically observed respiration rates to decrease nonlinearly with the ratio of OM richness to OC concentration. This relationship took the form of a constraint space with respiration rates in most systems falling below the constraint boundary. A similar, but slightly weaker, constraint boundary was observed when relating respiration rate to the inverse of OC concentration. These results indicate that maximum respiration rates may be governed primarily by OC concentration, with secondary influences from OM richness. Our results also show that other variables often suppress respiration rates below the maximum associated with the richness-to-concentration ratio. An important focus of future research will identify physical (e.g., sediment grain size), chemical (e.g., nutrient concentrations), and/or biological (e.g., microbial biomass) factors that suppress hyporheic zone respiration below the constraint boundaries observed here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Short-range forecasts with the GISS model of the global atmosphere

Results of tests carried out during the period from December 1972 through January 1973 to determine the short-term forecasting accuracy of a multilevel numerical primitive-equation (PE) model of the global atmosphere developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). Six 48-hr forecasts were carried out with the aid of this model, using nine vertical levels and a horizontal grid spacing of 4 deg in latitude and 5 deg in longitude for an effective grid point separation averaging slightly more than 400 km. Verification of forecast sea-level pressures, 1000-mb heights, and 500-mb heights, as well as 1000-mb and 500-mb vector geostrophic winds, shows that the model has forecast skill comparable to that of operational PE models. Based on the 36-hr evolution of 18 extratropical cyclones, the model forecasts exhibit a tendency toward underestimating their propagation speeds and overestimating their central pressures. Both deficiencies are attributed to inadequate horizontal grid resolution. Quantitative verification of forecast surface temperatures over the eastern United States shows a forecast skill equal to that achieved by combined dynamical-statistical procedures.

Druyan, L. M.↗

Dispersion analysis and linear error analysis capabilities of the space vehicle dynamics simulation program

Previous error analyses conducted by the Guidance and Dynamics Branch of NASA have used the Guidance Analysis Program (GAP) as the trajectory simulation tool. Plans are made to conduct all future error analyses using the Space Vehicle Dynamics Simulation (SVDS) program. A study was conducted to compare the inertial measurement unit (IMU) error simulations of the two programs. Results of the GAP/SVDS comparison are presented and problem areas encountered while attempting to simulate IMU errors, vehicle performance uncertainties and environmental uncertainties using SVDS are defined. An evaluation of the SVDS linear error analysis capability is also included.

Snow, L. S.↗

Interactive analysis of a large aperture Earth observations satellite

A system level design and analysis has been conducted on an Earth Observation Satellite (EOS) system using the Interactive Design and Evaluation of Advanced Spacecraft (IDEAS) computer-aided design and analysis program. The IDEAS program consists of about 40 user-friendly technical modules and an interactive graphics display. The reflector support system and feed mast of the EOS spacecraft are constructed with box-truss structural concept, a lattice configuration which can be packaged for delivery in a single Shuttle flight and deployed in orbit. The deployed spacecraft consists of a 120-m by 60-m parabolic focal axis. The spacecraft was modeled for structural, thermal, and control systems analysis and structural elements were designed. On-orbit dynamic and thermal loading analyses were conducted; spacecraft weights and developmental and first unit costs were determined.

Wright, R. L.↗

Flight test configuration for verifying inertial sensor redundancy management techniques

The Redundant Strapdown Inertial Measurement Unit presently tested in flight configuration consists of a semioctahedral array of four dynamically tuned, two-degree-of-freedom (TDOF) gyros and four TDOF accelerometers which can provide dual, fail-operational performance for integrated avionics systems. Attention is given to the multilevel algorithm used for the detection and isolation of three ranges of sensor failure in an integrated avionics context. A technique for the generation of accelerometer and gyro error thresholds which is sensitive to dynamic sensor errors and separation effects is presented, together with simulation results. Emphasis is placed on the ensuring of highly reliable data for flight control/navigation functions, while minimizing false or missed alarms.

Bryant, W. H.↗

Six-Degree-of-Freedom Vibration Suppressor

New system, total-rotor-isolation system (TRIS) employs liquid-inertia vibration-eliminator (LIVE) units, designed to isolate all six degrees of freedom of aircraft-fuselage dynamic response from continuously changing airloads developed by rotor. Vibration suppressor uses liquid mercury to damp vibrations. Results of flight tests indicated at least 95-percent reduction in vibration levels from rotor hub to pilot's seat.

Halwes, Dennis R.↗

A new adaptive control approach for aerospace vehicles with parameter uncertainties

A new stochastic adaptive control structure is developed for the problem of combined parameter estimation and control of aerospace vehicles with changing parameters. Parameter uncertainties are modeled as first-order Gauss-Markov processes, and are introduced to the system dynamics through a small parameter. It is assumed that an accurate inertial measurement unit gives perfect measurements of the state variables. Since the stochastic system is assumed to be Gauss-Markov, the density function of the parameters given these measurements is conditionally Gaussian. Based on this conditionally Gaussian density, the problem of minimizing a quadratic cost over an infinite time horizon can be set up within the framework of stochastic optimal control theory. The optimal feedback control law is derived from a straightforward expansion of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, based on the LQG solution. The resulting nonlinear controller is applied to the pitch axis control of a space platform with uncertain moments of inertia and is shown to produce marked improvement over a fixed controller.

Hahn, Yungsun↗

Experiments on Thermal Convection in Rotating Spherical Shells With Radial Gravity: The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell

Experiments designed to study the fluid dynamics of buoyancy driven circulations in rotating spherical shells were conducted on the United States Microgravity Laboratory 2 spacelab mission. These experiments address several aspects of prototypical global convection relevant to large scale motions on the Sun, Earth, and on the giant planets. The key feature is the consistent modeling of radially directed gravity in spherical geometry by using dielectric polarization forces. Imagery of the planforms of thermally driven flows for rapidly-rotating regimes shows an initial separation and eventual merger of equatorial and polar convection as the heating (i.e. the Rayleigh number) is increased. At low rotation rates, multiple-states of motion for the same external parameters were observed.

Hart, John E.↗

Case Study Investigations of Large-Amplitude Inertia-Gravity Wave Environments and Mesoscale Structures

The research effort supported by NASA Grant NAG5-7469, awarded to the University at Albany, State University of New York (UA/SUNY), comprises the following two projects: (1) the observational study of large-amplitude inertia-gravity wave environments over the continental United States; and (2) the definition of opportunities and issues in extratropical cyclone dynamics and related phenomenological studies that may be addressed using high-resolution global datasets produced by the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.

Bosart, Lance F.↗

Aerodynamic Drag and Drag Reduction: Energy and Energy Savings (Invited)

An assessment of the role of fluid dynamic resistance and/or aerodynamic drag and the relationship to energy use in the United States is presented. Existing data indicates that up to 25% of the total energy consumed in the United States is used to overcome aerodynamic drag, 27% of the total energy used in the United States is consumed by transportation systems, and 60% of the transportation energy or 16% of the total energy consumed in the United States is used to overcome aerodynamic drag in transportation systems. Drag reduction goals of 50% are proposed and discussed which if realized would produce a 7.85% total energy savings. This energy savings correlates to a yearly cost savings in the $30Billion dollar range.

Wood, Richard M.↗

Aerodynamic Drag and Drag Reduction: Energy and Energy Savings (Invited)

An assessment of the role of fluid dynamic resistance and/or aerodynamic drag and the relationship to energy use in the United States is presented. Existing data indicates that up to 25% of the total energy consumed in the United States is used to overcome aerodynamic drag, 27% of the total energy used in the United States is consumed by transportation systems, and 60% of the transportation energy or 16% of the total energy consumed in the United States is used to overcome aerodynamic drag in transportation systems. Drag reduction goals of 50% are proposed and discussed which if realized would produce a 7.85% total energy savings. This energy savings correlates to a yearly cost savings in the $30Billion dollar range.

Wood, Richard M.↗

Ion Thruster Used to Propel the Deep Space 1 Spacecraft to Comet Encounters

The NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness (NSTAR) Project provided a xenon ion propulsion system to the Deep Space 1 (DS1) spacecraft to validate the propulsion system as well as perform primary propulsion for asteroid and comet encounters. The On-Board Propulsion Branch of the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field developed engineering model versions of the 30-cm-diameter ion thruster and the 2.5-kW power processor unit (PPU). Glenn then transferred the thruster and PPU technologies to Hughes Electron Dynamics and managed the contract, which supplied two flight sets of thrusters and PPU s to the Deep Space 1 spacecraft and to a ground-based life verification test at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In addition to managing the DS1 spacecraft development, JPL was responsible for the NSTAR Project management, thruster life tests, the feed system, diagnostics, and propulsion subsystem integration. The ion propulsion development team included NASA Glenn, JPL, Hughes Electronics, Moog Inc., and Spectrum Astro Inc. The overall NSTAR subsystem dry mass, including thruster, PPU, controller, cables, and the xenon storage and feed system, is 48 kg. The mass of the xenon stored onboard DS1 was about 81 kg, and the spacecraft wet mass was approximately 500 kg.The DS1 spacecraft was launched on October 24, 1998, and on July 29, 1999, it flew within 16 miles of the small asteroid Braille (formerly 1992KD) at a relative speed of 35,000 mph. As of November 1999, the ion propulsion system had performed flawlessly for nearly 149 days of thrusting. NASA has approved an extension to the mission, which will allow DS1 to continue thrusting to encounters with two comets in 2001. The DS1 optical and plasma diagnostic instruments will be used to investigate the comet and space environments. The spacecraft is scheduled to fly past the dormant comet Wilson- Harrington in January 2001 and the very active comet Borrelly in September 2001, at which time approximately 500 days of ion engine thrusting will have been completed.

Sovey, James S.↗

Ground/Flight Correlation of Aerodynamic Loads with Structural Response

United States Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) ground tests at the NASA Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) and NASA flight tests provide a basis and methodology for in-flight characterization of the aeroelastic performance through the monitoring of the fluid-structure interaction using surface flow sensors. NASA NF-15B flight tests provided a unique opportunity to test the correlation of aerodynamic loads with sectional flow attachment/detachment points, also known as flow bifurcation points (FBPs), as observed in previous wind tunnel tests. The NF-15B tail was instrumented with hot-film sensors and strain gages for measuring root-bending strains. These data were gathered via selected sideslip maneuvers performed at level flight and subsonic speeds. The aerodynamic loads generated by the sideslip maneuver resulted in root-bending strains and hot-film sensor signals near the stagnation region that were highly correlated. For the TDT tests, a flexible wing section developed under the AFRL SensorCraft program was instrumented with strain gages, accelerometers, and hot-film sensors at multiple span stations. The TDT tests provided data showing a gradual phase change between the FBP and the structural mode occurred during a resonant condition as the wings structural modes were excited by the tunnel-generated gusts.

Mangalam, Arun S.↗

Predicting Bone Mechanical State During Recovery After Long-Duration Skeletal Unloading Using QCT and Finite Element Modeling

During long-duration missions at the International Space Station, astronauts experience weightlessness leading to skeletal unloading. Unloading causes a lack of a mechanical stimulus that triggers bone cellular units to remove mass from the skeleton. A mathematical system of the cellular dynamics predicts theoretical changes to volume fractions and ash fraction in response to temporal variations in skeletal loading. No current model uses image technology to gather information about a skeletal site s initial properties to calculate bone remodeling changes and then to compare predicted bone strengths with the initial strength. The goal of this study is to use quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in conjunction with a computational model of the bone remodeling process to establish initial bone properties to predict changes in bone mechanics during bone loss and recovery with finite element (FE) modeling. Input parameters for the remodeling model include bone volume fraction and ash fraction, which are both computed from the QCT images. A non-destructive approach to measure ash fraction is also derived. Voxel-based finite element models (FEM) created from QCTs provide initial evaluation of bone strength. Bone volume fraction and ash fraction outputs from the computational model predict changes to the elastic modulus of bone via a two-parameter equation. The modulus captures the effect of bone remodeling and functions as the key to evaluate of changes in strength. Application of this time-dependent modulus to FEMs and composite beam theory enables an assessment of bone mechanics during recovery. Prediction of bone strength is not only important for astronauts, but is also pertinent to millions of patients with osteoporosis and low bone density.

Chang, Katarina L.↗

The Precipitation Response Over the Continental United States to Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

The dominant pattern of annual mean SST variability in the Pacific (in its cold phase) produces pronounced precipitation deficits over the continental United States (U.S.) throughout the annual cycle. This study investigates the physical and dynamical processes through which the cold Pacific pattern affects the U.S. precipitation, particularly the causes for the peak dry impacts in fall, as well as the nature of the differences between the summer and fall responses. Results, based on observations and reanalyses, show that the peak precipitation deficit over the U.S. during fall is primarily due to reduced atmospheric moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern U.S., and secondarily due to a reduction in local evaporation from land-atmosphere feedback. The former is associated with a strong and systematic low-level northeasterly flow anomaly over the southeastern U.S. that counteracts the northwest branch of the climatological flow associated with the north Atlantic subtropical high. The above northeasterly anomaly is maintained by both diabatic heating anomalies in the nearby Intra-American Seas and diabatic cooling anomalies in the tropical Pacific. In contrast, the modest summertime precipitation deficit over the U.S. is mainly the result of local land-atmosphere feedback; the rather weak and disorganized atmospheric circulation anomalies over and to the south of the U.S. make little contribution. An evaluation of NSIPP-1 AGCM simulations shows it to be deficient in simulating the warm season tropical convection responses over the Intra-American Seas to the cold Pacific pattern and thereby the precipitation responses over the U.S., a problem that appears to be common to many AGCMs.

SST↗

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1‐km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

carbon sequestration↗