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At least 793 records · Page 44

Ensemble learning-iterative training machine learning for uncertainty quantification and automated experiment in atom-resolved microscopy

Deep learning has emerged as a technique of choice for rapid feature extraction across imaging disciplines, allowing rapid conversion of the data streams to spatial or spatiotemporal arrays of features of interest. However, applications of deep learning in experimental domains are often limited by the out-of-distribution drift between the experiments, where the network trained for one set of imaging conditions becomes sub-optimal for different ones. This limitation is particularly stringent in the quest to have an automated experiment setting, where retraining or transfer learning becomes impractical due to the need for human intervention and associated latencies. Here we explore the reproducibility of deep learning for feature extraction in atom-resolved electron microscopy and introduce workflows based on ensemble learning and iterative training to greatly improve feature detection. This approach allows incorporating uncertainty quantification into the deep learning analysis and also enables rapid automated experimental workflows where retraining of the network to compensate for out-of-distribution drift due to subtle change in imaging conditions is substituted for human operator or programmatic selection of networks from the ensemble. This methodology can be further applied to machine learning workflows in other imaging areas including optical and chemical imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling

The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Emulation of the calculations of final r -process abundance patterns with a neural network

This work explores the construction of a fast emulator for the calculation of the final pattern of nucleosynthesis in the rapid neutron capture process (the r-process). An emulator is built using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN). We train the ANN with nuclear data and relative abundance patterns. We take as input the β-decay half-lives and the one-neutron separation energy of the nuclei in the rare-earth region. The output is the final isotopic abundance pattern. In this work, we focus on the nuclear data and abundance patterns in the rare-earth region to reduce the dimension of the input and output space. We show that the ANN can capture the effect of the changes in the nuclear physics inputs on the final r-process abundance pattern in the adopted astrophysical conditions. We employ the deep ensemble method to quantify the prediction uncertainty of the neural network emulator. The emulator achieves a speed-up by a factor of about 20 000 in obtaining a final abundance pattern in the rare-earth region. The emulator may be utilized in statistical analyses such as uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and sensitivity analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

First Measurement of the Michel Parameter ξ ' in the τ - → μ - ν ¯ μ ν τ Decay at Belle

We report the first measurement of the Michel parameter ξ' in the $\tau$ - →μ - ⁢ $\overline{v}$ μ ⁢v $\tau$ decay with a new method proposed just recently. The measurement is based on the reconstruction of the $\tau$ - →μ -⁢ $\overline{v}$ μ v $\tau$ events with subsequent muon decay in flight in the Belle central drift chamber. The analyzed data sample of 988 fb -1 collected by the Belle detector corresponds to approximately 912×10 6 $\tau$ + ⁢$\tau$ - pairs. We measure ξ'=0.22±0.94⁢(stat)±0.42⁢(syst), which is in agreement with the standard model prediction of ξ' =1. Statistical uncertainty dominates in this study, being a limiting factor, while systematic uncertainty is well under control. Our analysis proved the practicability of this promising method and its prospects for further precise measurement in future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Bidding Curve Design for Hybrid Power Plants with Uncertain Solar Forecast

This paper presents a novel bidding curve design algorithm tailored for hybrid power plants (HPPs) to participate in the wholesale electricity market. Utilizing forecasts for photovoltaic (PV) generation and available battery power, our algorithm strategically computes the bidding curve to maximize HPP profit while adeptly managing the inherent uncertainty associated with PV power generation. In addition, the introduction of the penalty cost in HPP bidding curves provides the system operator a tool to effectively manage the system-level uncertainty that caused by HPPs. Numerical analysis through Monte Carlo simulations confirms that our bidding curve methodology outperforms the benchmark across various scenarios.

bidding curve↗

Robust Data-Driven Predictive Run-to-Run Control for Automated Serial Sectioning

This letter presents a one-step predictive run-to-run controller (R2R-MPC) for the automation of mechanical serial sectioning (MSS), a destructive material analysis process. To address the inherent uncertainty and disturbances in the MSS process, a robust closed-loop approach is presented. Here, the robust R2R-MPC models the uncertainty of the MSS process using a linear differential inclusion. As an analytical model of the MSS process is unavailable, the differential inclusion is identified from historical data. The R2R-MPC is posed as an optimization problem that computes incremental changes to the control input which minimize the worst-case material removal errors. This optimization-based controller is combined with a run-to-run controller to provide integral action that rejects constant disturbances and tracks constant reference removal rates. To demonstrate the efficacy of our robust R2R-MPC, we present simulation results which compare the presented controller with a conventional non-robust R2R.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Rethinking the Price Formation Problem–Part 2: Rewarding Flexibility and Managing Price Risk

In this study, part 1 of this two-part paper describes the impact that uncertainty has on the design and analysis of price formation policies in the non-convex auctions conducted by U.S. wholesale electricity market operators. Using first a toy model and then a large-scale test system, Part 2 demonstrates the difference in prices under the idealized benchmark of ex ante convex hull pricing defined in Part 1 versus existing methods, in particular documenting the potential for suppression of volatility and therefore under-compensation of flexibility by existing methods. The examples highlight that inefficient spot price formation can induce inefficient forward commitments of generators, necessitating out-of-market intervention to restore a reliable and efficient operating plan.Given the potential side effects of existing policies for investment and operation, we suggest two elements in a reoriented approach to the price formation problem: first ensuring that prices exhibit full-strength volatility, and second ensuring that risk-averse market participants have sufficient ability to manage this volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy gain scale calibration of the XRISM Resolve microcalorimeter spectrometer: ground calibration results and on-orbit comparison

The Resolve instrument aboard the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) is a 36-pixel microcalorimeter spectrometer that provides nondispersive spectroscopy with ∼ 5 eV spectral resolution in the soft X-ray waveband. Resolve has a requirement to provide an absolute energy-scale calibration of ± 2 eV from 0.3 to 12 keV. We describe our ground calibration strategy and results of a subset of the ground calibration campaigns, including a discussion of improvements in the energy scale ground calibration compared with Hitomi’s. These improvements include calibration of the low-energy band below 4 keV with the instrument in the flight dewar and the dewar aperture door open, which was not performed for Hitomi, and thorough measurements over an extended high-energy waveband to 22 keV. We also developed an improved technique for gain calibration of “mid-res” secondary events, which have suppressed gain due to proximity to a preceding X-ray event (18 to 70 ms) on the same pixel. We provide a discussion of the on-orbit energy scale monitoring campaigns and an assessment of the Resolve energy scale uncertainties, a key parameter for astrophysics analysis. Energy-scale calibration approaches for future space-based instruments, including the X-ray Integral Field Unit on Athena and microcalorimeter spectrometers proposed or under discussion for future X-ray observatory concepts, have heritage in the calibration of XRISM. We briefly comment on lessons learned from Resolve calibration that are relevant for these future instruments.

Aluminum↗

Long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics potential of the DUNE experiment

The sensitivity of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) to neutrino oscillation is determined, based on a full simulation, reconstruction, and event selection of the far detector and a full simulation and parameterized analysis of the near detector. Detailed uncertainties due to the flux prediction, neutrino interaction model, and detector effects are included. DUNE will resolve the neutrino mass ordering to a precision of 5σ, for all δ CP values, after 2 years of running with the nominal detector design and beam configuration. It has the potential to observe charge-parity violation in the neutrino sector to a precision of 3σ (5σ) after an exposure of 5 (10) years, for 50% of all δ CP values. It will also make precise measurements of other parameters governing long-baseline neutrino oscillation, and after an exposure of 15 years will achieve a similar sensitivity to sin 2 2$θ_{13}$ to current reactor experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale) v.6.14

Sandia's Dakota software supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically, Dakota manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to: (1) enhance understanding of risk, (2) improve products, and (3) assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a computational model. Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verification and validation activities. The algorithms implemented in Dakota aim to address challenges in performing these analyses with complex science and engineering models from desktop to high performance computers. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525 SAND2021-10468 O

Adams, BrianM.↗

DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale) v.6.16

Sandia's Dakota software supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically, Dakota manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to: (1) enhance understanding of risk, (2) improve products, and (3) assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a computational model. Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verification and validation activities. The algorithms implemented in Dakota aim to address challenges in performing these analyses with complex science and engineering models from desktop to high performance computers. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525 SAND2021-10468 O

Adams, BrianM.↗

pnnl/MCRASTA

McRasta (Markov Chain Rate and State Analysis) was developed to estimate parameter uncertainty in constitutive friction models via Bayesian inverse and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Fichera, Marissa [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Community Data Contribution to M.E.T.A. with ATF-relevant Hydrided Zr cladding (Coated and Uncoated)

Since the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi loss-of-coolant accident, accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) claddings have been developed to improve the coping times in such events. However, the mechanical performance of ATF cladding is crucial in ensuring that it does not negatively impact the mechanical integrity during all other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle, and the validity of the existing safe operating margins must be verified. However, due to the cladding’s tube geometry and textured anisotropy, determination of apparent mechanical properties under certain deformation paths is challenging. In the uniaxial hoop direction, for instance, the measured mechanical stresses include frictional forces caused by loading mandrels or varying deformation paths in the sample during traditional ring tensile testing. This experimental difficulty is exacerbated by the specimen size. However, addressing these challenges enables irradiation separate-effects investigations in which the materials can be inserted in reactors like the High Flux Isotope Reactor, and reducing the material consumption of commercially irradiated material allows for further post-irradiation examinations. Despite the advantages of reduced-scale mechanical testing, any drawbacks from new specimen geometries must be evaluated, and uncertainties from specimen preparation, setup, and analysis methodologies must be understood.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Measurements of the 239 Pu(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) and 238 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) Cross-Section Ratios Using Quasi-Monoenergetic Neutron Beams

Neutron-induced fission cross-section ratio measurements were carried out at Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory (TUNL) over multiple experiment campaigns from 2021-2023. The total beam time for these measurements across all the experimental campaigns was approximately three weeks. This work was intended to serve as an independent validation of the fissionTPC cross-section ratio measurements. In contrast to the white spectrum neutron source and time-projection chamber utilized in the fissionTPC, these measurements utilized pulsed, quasi-monoenergetic neutron beams and fission ionization chambers. Therefore, this work has different sources of systematic error and can be used as a complementary measurement. In this report we describe our fission cross-section ratio measurements, analysis, results and provide a detailed uncertainty budget.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nucleon isovector momentum fraction, helicity and transversity moment using Lattice QCD

We present our recent high precision calculations (Phys. Rev. D102 (2020) no.5, 054512 and JHEP 04 (2021) 044, JHEP 21 (2020) 004) of the first moment of nucleon isovector polarized, unpolarized and transversity distributions, i.e., momentum fraction, helicity and transversity moment, respectively. We use the standard method for the calculation of these moments (via matrix elements of twist two operators), and carry out a detailed analysis of the sources of systematic uncertainty, in particular of excited state contributions. Our calculations have been performed using two different lattice setups (Clover-on-HISQ and Clover-on-Clover), each with several ensembles. They give consistent results that are in agreement with global fit analyses.

Mondal, Santanu↗

Revised and New Proper Motions for Confirmed and Candidate Milky Way Dwarf Galaxies

A new derivation of systemic proper motions of Milky Way satellites is presented and applied to 59 confirmed or candidate dwarf galaxy satellites using Gaia Data Release 2. This constitutes all known Milky Way dwarf galaxies (and likely candidates) as of 2020 May, except for the Magellanic Clouds, the Canis Major and Hydra 1 stellar overdensities, and the tidally disrupting Bootes III and Sagittarius dwarf galaxies. We derive systemic proper motions for the first time for Indus 1, DES J0225+0304, Cetus 2, Pictor 2, and Leo T, but note that the latter three rely on photometry that is of poorer quality than that of the rest of the sample. We cannot resolve a signal for Bootes 4, Cetus 3, Indus 2, Pegasus 3, or Virgo 1. Our method is inspired by the maximum likelihood approach of Pace & Li and examines simultaneously the spatial, color–magnitude, and proper motion distribution of sources. Systemic proper motions are derived without the need to identify confirmed radial velocity members, although the proper motions of these stars, where available, are incorporated into the analysis through a prior on the model. The associated uncertainties on the systemic proper motions are on average a factor of ∼1.4 smaller than existing literature values. Analysis of the implied membership distribution of the satellites suggests that we accurately identify member stars with a contamination rate lower than 1 in 20.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An efficient hybrid downscaling framework to estimate high-resolution river hydrodynamics

Flow depth and velocity are the most important hydrodynamic variables that govern various river functions, including water resources, navigation, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Existing high-resolution flow depth simulations rely on either computationally expensive river hydrodynamic models (RHMs) or data-driven models with formidable training costs, whereas data-driven modeling of flow velocity has rarely been explored. Here, using the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian process learning (LSG) model, we developed a downscaling approach to construct high-resolution flow depth and velocity from a two-dimensional (2-D) RHM simulation at coarse resolution. The LSG models were trained and tested in an urban watershed in Houston using two different hurricane-driven flood events. The high-resolution (as fine as 30 m resolution) and low-resolution (mostly 1000 m resolution) meshes include 664 724 and 14 536 grid cells, respectively. The results showed that through downscaling, the simulation errors were reduced to less than one-fourth and one-third of the errors of the low-resolution 2-D RHM for flow depth and velocity, respectively. Our analysis further revealed that the dominant uncertainty sources of the downscaled hydrodynamics are different, with flow velocity dominated by the dimensionality reduction error, which we reduced by using a regionalized training procedure. The downscaling approach achieves an 84-fold acceleration in computational time compared to the high-resolution 2-D RHM, making high-fidelity ensemble flood modeling feasible. More importantly, the developed method provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamical processes with local physical, chemical, and biological processes in river models.

Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗