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At least 793 records · Page 44

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DOE OSTI2022

Very small-scale, segregating-fluidized-bed experiments: A dataset for CFD-DEM validation and uncertainty quantification

IWe report fluidization experiments were conducted on a small scale and with a rapid response (short duration) to enable corresponding simulations at low-computational cost. Rise times are reported for four or fewer polyethylene particles (intruders) in an air-fluidized bed of ~5000 group D glass beads. Experimental inputs were completely characterized—particle properties, system dimensions and operating conditions—which is necessary for validating computational fluid mechanics (CFD)-discrete element method (DEM) including a comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis. Input uncertainties are reported as bounds or cumulative distribution functions of measured values. The staggering number of simulations required to complete a UQ analysis (~O[10 4 ] simulations corresponding to ~5 uncertain inputs) motivates this study. These segregating-bed experiments are designed to permit analogous CFD-DEM simulations to complete in less than a day on a single (~2.5 GHz) computational processor unit (CPU). Segregation times are reported for several operating conditions, intruder sizes, and initial configurations, providing a rich dataset for numerical model testing, validation and UQ.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrous SiO 2 in subducted oceanic crust and H 2 O transport to the core-mantle boundary

Subduction of oceanic lithosphere transports surface H 2 O into the mantle. Recent studies show that dense SiO 2 in the form of stishovite, an abundant mineral in subducted oceanic crust at depths greater than ~270 km, has the potential to host and transport a considerable amount of H 2 O into the lower mantle, but the H 2 O storage capacity of SiO 2 phases at high pressure and temperature remains uncertain. We investigate the hydration of stishovite and its higher-pressure polymorphs, β-stishovite and seifertite, with in situ X-ray diffraction experiments at high pressures and temperatures. The H 2 O contents in SiO 2 phases are quantified based on observed increases in unit cell volume relative to the anhydrous SiO 2 system. Density functional theory (DFT) computations permit calibration of water content as a function of volume change based on interstitial substitution of H 2 O. Regression of our experimental data indicates an H 2 O storage capacity in stishovite of ~3.5 wt% in the transition zone and shallow lower mantle, decreasing to about 0.8 wt% at the base of the mantle. We find that SiO 2 -bearing subducted oceanic crust can accommodate all the H 2 O in slab lithosphere that survives sub-arc dehydration. Hydration of silica phases in subducted oceanic crust and their unparalleled capacity to host significant amounts of H 2 O even at high mantle temperatures provides a unique mechanism for transport and storage of water in the deepest mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using sub-limb observations to measure gravity waves excited by convection

Convective gravity waves are a major driver of atmospheric circulation, including the stratospheric and mesospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Previous work shows clear evidence that these waves can be excited by both single convective cells and by mesoscale convective complexes acting as a single unit. However, the partitioning of the generated waves and, crucially for atmospheric model development, the flux of momentum they transport between these two types of excitation process remains highly uncertain due to a fundamental lack of suitable observations at the global scale. Here, we use both theoretical calculations and sampled output from a high-resolution weather model to demonstrate that a satellite instrument using a sub-limb geometry would be well suited to characterising the short-vertical short-horizontal gravity waves these systems produce, and hence to provide the scientific knowledge needed to identify the relative wave-driving contribution of these two types of convective wave excitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

IUE observations of WX Ceti in outburst

IUE observations of the peculiar dwarf nova WX Ceti roughly two weeks into a rare outburst, the first since 1963, are obtained. The SWP and LWP observations are very similar to other erupting dwarf novae, both in the line and continuum spectrum. The C IV 1549 A doublet displays blueshifted absorption, indicating the presence of a wind which has a terminal velocity of either 3150 km/s or 5450 km/s; the two possible values are due to an uncertain interpretation of features in the blue wing of the line. The line may also show a weak, redshifted emission, completing a P Cygni profile. The derived mass-loss of 0.7-2.2 x 10 to the -11th solar masses/yr is quite typical of dwarf novae in outburst. Thus, despite the unusual photometric properties of this system, long recurrence time, large amplitude outbursts, and long duration eruptions, the IUE observations reveal that the physical characteristics of the outburst are fairly typical of dwarf novae.

Downes, Ronald A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Argon-40/Argon-39 Age Spectra of Apollo 17 Highlands Breccia Samples by Laser Step Heating and the Age of the Serenitatis Basin

We have obtained high-resolution (21-63 steps) Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectra using a continuous laser system on 19 submilligram samples of melt rocks and clasts from Apollo 17 samples collected from the pre-Imbrian highlands in the easternmost part of the Serenitatis basin. The samples include poikilitic melt rocks inferred to have been formed in the Serenitatis basin-forming impact, aphanitic melt rock whose compositions vary and whose provenance is uncertain, and granulite, gabbro, and melt clasts. Three of the poikilitic melts have similar age spectrum plateau ages (72395,96, 3893 +/- 16 Ma (2sigma); 72535,7, 3887 +/- 16 Ma; 76315,150, 3900 +/- 16 Ma) with a weighted mean age of 3893 +/- 9 Ma, which we interpret as the best age for the Serenitatis basin- forming impact. Published Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectrum ages of Apollo 17 poikilitic melts are consistent with our new age but are much less precise. Two poikilitic melts did not give plateaus and the maxima in their age spectra indicate ages of greater than or equal to 3869 Ma (72558,7) and greater than or equal to 3743 Ma (77135,178). Plateau ages of two poikilitic melts and two gabbro clasts from 73155 range from 3854 +/- 16 Ma to 3937 +/- 16 Ma and have probably been affected by the ubiquitous (older?) clasts and by post- formation heating (impact) events. Plateau ages from two of the aphanitic melt 'blobs' and two granulites in sample 72255 fall in the narrow range of 3850 q 16 Ma to 3869 q 16 Ma with a weighted mean of 3862 +/- 8 Ma. Two of the aphanitic melt blobs from 72255 have ages of 3883 +/- 16 Ma and greater than or equal to 3894 Ma, whereas a poikilitic melt clast (of different composition from the 'Serenitatis' melts) has an age of 3835 +/- 16 Ma, which is the upper limit for the accretion of 72255. These data suggest that either the aphanitic melts vary in age, as is also suggested by their varying chemical compositions, or they formed in the 72255 accretionary event about 3.84-3.85 Ga and older relict material is responsible for the dispersion of ages. In any case the aphanitic melts do not appear to be Serenitatis products. Our age for the Serenitatis impact shows, on the basis of the isotopic age evidence alone, that Serenitatis is greater than 20-25 Ma and probably greatr than 55-60 Ma older than Imbrium (less than or equal to 3870 Ma and probably less than or equal to 3836 Ma (Dalrymple and Ryder, 19931). Noritic granulite sample 78527 has a plateau age of 4146 +/- 17 Ma, representing a minimum age for cooling of this sample in the early lunar crust. So far there is no convincing evidence in the lunar melt rock record for basin-forming impacts significantly older than 3.9 Ga.

Dalrymple, G. Brent↗

NASA NTRS2001

Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms

Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was created to address a key challenge in scientific discovery: experiments are often slow, require significant manual labor, and generate data that is not easily integrated across different tools. This limits how quickly scientists can explore new materials, processes, and chemical reactions. Our motivation was to design a system that makes research faster, more reliable, and adaptable by combining automation with artificial intelligence. By doing so, we aimed to reduce human error, accelerate discovery, and allow researchers to quickly test many possibilities that would otherwise take months or years. Our approach was to build a flexible platform that connects laboratory robots, measurement instruments, and a central data system, all guided by artificial intelligence. MARS integrates liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and plate readers with an intelligent decision-making system that chooses the most informative experiments to run next. This creates a closed loop where experiments are performed automatically, the data is analyzed in real time, and new conditions are immediately tested. Through this work, we demonstrated that MARS can carry out multiple experiments with little or no human intervention, adapt to different scientific problems, and handle uncertain or noisy measurements in a robust way. The results show that modular and intelligent automation can significantly accelerate the pace of discovery, providing a model for future self-driving laboratories. This approach addresses the growing scientific need for adaptable, data-driven research platforms that can keep up with the complexity and scale of modern science.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Attitude/attitude-rate estimation from GPS differential phase measurements using integrated-rate parameters

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Oshman, Yaakov↗

NASA NTRS1997

Vector Observation-Aided/Attitude-Rate Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

Oshman, Yaakov↗

NASA NTRS2000

Sliding Mode Control of the X-33 with an Engine Failure

Ascent flight control of the X-3 is performed using two XRS-2200 linear aerospike engines. in addition to aerosurfaces. The baseline control algorithms are PID with gain scheduling. Flight control using an innovative method. Sliding Mode Control. is presented for nominal and engine failed modes of flight. An easy to implement, robust controller. requiring no reconfiguration or gain scheduling is demonstrated through high fidelity flight simulations. The proposed sliding mode controller utilizes a two-loop structure and provides robust. de-coupled tracking of both orientation angle command profiles and angular rate command profiles in the presence of engine failure, bounded external disturbances (wind gusts) and uncertain matrix of inertia. Sliding mode control causes the angular rate and orientation angle tracking error dynamics to be constrained to linear, de-coupled, homogeneous, and vector valued differential equations with desired eigenvalues. Conditions that restrict engine failures to robustness domain of the sliding mode controller are derived. Overall stability of a two-loop flight control system is assessed. Simulation results show that the designed controller provides robust, accurate, de-coupled tracking of the orientation angle command profiles in the presence of external disturbances and vehicle inertia uncertainties, as well as the single engine failed case. The designed robust controller will significantly reduce the time and cost associated with flying new trajectory profiles or orbits, with new payloads, and with modified vehicles

Shtessel, Yuri B.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Bias in CMIP6 Models as Compared to Observed Regional Dimming and Brightening

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR)↗

NASA NTRS1993

Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

Kreinovich, Vladik↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Oxo to Oxyl to Biradical: Systematic Multireference Calculations of Methane Activation at MOF Nodes

Methane C–H activation at transition-metal sites often involves electronic structures that challenge conventional single-reference electronic structure descriptions. Although Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) is widely used to study catalytic trends, its reliability for reactions involving strongly correlated species remains uncertain. Here we present a systematic multireference investigation of methane activation at metal–organic framework (MOF) node catalysts across the 3d transition-metal series. We introduce an automated workflow for active space selection to enable consistent application of multireference methods, including multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory and n-electron valence state perturbation theory, to these catalytic systems. These calculations show substantial static correlation in the C–H activation reaction step and predict activation barriers that differ from DFT by 30–70 kJ mol–1, with DFT often qualitatively disagreeing in barrier height trends across transition metals. Analysis of multireference wave functions shows that reactivity is governed by the electronic structure of the M–O moiety along a continuum from metal–oxo to oxyl radical and O biradical character. Increased oxygen-centered spin density and weakened M–O bonding are identified as descriptors of catalytic activity which correlate with lower activation barriers.

Wardzala, Jacob↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reduced CO 2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation

Current Earth system models (ESMs) project dramatic slowing (28–42% by 2100) of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) across a range of climate scenarios, with a complete shutdown of SMOC possible by year 2300. Slowing meridional overturning circulation (MOC) differentially impacts the ocean biological and solubility carbon pumps, leaving the net impact on ocean carbon uptake uncertain. Here using a suite of ESMs, we show that slowing MOC reduces anthropogenic carbon uptake by the solubility pump but increases deep-ocean storage of carbon and nutrients by the biological pump. The net effect reduces ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . The deep-ocean nutrient sequestration will increasingly depress global-scale, marine net primary production over time. As a result, MOC slowdown represents a positive feedback that could extend or intensify peak-warmth climate conditions on multi-century timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

The tip of the red giant branch as a distance indicator for resolved galaxies. 2: Computer simulations

Based on both empirical data for the nearby galaxies, and on computer simulations, we show that measuring the position of the tip of the first-ascent red-giant branch provides a means of obtaining the distances to nearby galaxies with a precision and accuracy comparable to using Cepheids and/or RR Lyrae variables. We present an analysis of synthetic I vs (V-I) color magnitude diagrams of Population 2 systems to investigate the use of the observed discontinuity in the I-band luminosity function as a primary distance indicator. In the simulations we quantify the effects (1) signal to noise, (2) crowding, (3) population size, and (4) non-giant-branch-star contamination, on the method adopted for detecting the discontinuity,, measuring its luminosity, and estimating its uncertainity. We discuss sources of systematic error in the context of observable parameters, such as the signal-to-noise ratio and/or surface brightness. The simulations are then scaled to observed color-magnitude diagrams. It is concluded, that from the ground the tip of the red-giant-branch method can be sucessfully used to determine distances accurate to +/- 10% for galaxies out to 3 Mpc (mu approximately 27.5 mag); and from space a factor of four further in distance (mu approximately 30.6 mag) can be reached using HST. This method can be applied whereever a metal-poor population (-2.0 less than Z less than -0.7) of red-giant stars is detected (whose age is in the range 7-17 Gyr), whether that population resides in the halo of a spiral galaxy, the extended outer disk of a dwarf irregular, or in the outer periphery of an elliptical galaxy.

Madore, Barry F.↗