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At least 793 records · Page 44

Lessons Learned With Risk Management: A Systems Engineer's Perspective

Risk management is a communications device that, when executed as an essential task, enables systems engineering to effectively balance risk across the project. Developing and baselining risks is an essential continuous task to ensure top project concerns both from bottom up and top down are being mitigated. Risk management provides the opportunity to avoid the consequence of the risk when mitigation steps start early enough. Just discussing risk with all the project flight elements during development, even if no risks are open, provides an excellent communication opportunity between systems engineering and those elements, ensuring concerns and worries have a platform for discussion. A well-managed risk identification process will identify concerns that are serious but not being clearly communicated, and it will enable mitigation of those potential problems before they cause a failure. Effective risk management requires considerable time and effort, but that effort will save time and money across the development. Risk management must be frequent enough to be useful and in depth enough to bring out emerging issues. It also requires a trusting relationship between the lead systems engineer and element and/or subsystem leads. The discussions need to be with the right number of individuals (typically a handful) and the right duration in time (typically an hour a month). Outside of these risk working groups, there is a formal management process to input, status, and disposition risks, and a monthly Risk Management Board meeting where key project stakeholders are informed. This paper provides good guidance on effective risk management from a systems engineering perspective and provides project lessons learned from the NASA spaceflight missions NICER, Landsat 9, LRO, and OSIRIS-REx to demonstrate the effectiveness of risk management.

Lessons Learned↗

Lessons Learned With Risk Management: A Systems Engineer’s Perspective

Risk management is a communications device that, when executed as an essential task, enables systems engineering to effectively balance risk across the project. Developing and baselining risks is an essential continuous task to ensure top project concerns both from bottom up and top down are being mitigated. Risk management provides the opportunity to avoid the consequence of the risk when mitigation steps start early enough. Just discussing risk with all the project flight elements during development, even if no risks are open, provides an excellent communication opportunity between systems engineering and those elements, ensuring concerns and worries have a platform for discussion. A well-managed risk identification process will identify concerns that are serious but not being clearly communicated, and it will enable mitigation of those potential problems before they cause a failure. Effective risk management requires considerable time and effort, but that effort will save time and money across the development. Risk management must be frequent enough to be useful and in depth enough to bring out emerging issues. It also requires a trusting relationship between the lead systems engineer and element and/or subsystem leads. The discussions need to be with the right number of individuals (typically a handful) and the right duration in time (typically an hour a month). Outside of these risk working groups, there is a formal management process to input, status, and disposition risks, and a monthly Risk Management Board meeting where key project stakeholders are informed. This paper provides good guidance on effective risk management from a systems engineering perspective and provides project lessons learned from the NASA spaceflight missions NICER, Landsat 9, LRO, and OSIRIS-REx to demonstrate the effectiveness of risk management.

Lessons Learned↗

Analysis of high velocity impact on hybrid composite fan blades

Recent developments in the analysis of high velocity impact of composite blades are described, using a computerized capability which consists of coupling a composites mechanics code with the direct-time integration features of NASTRAN. The application of the capability to determine the linear dynamic response of an interply hybrid composite aircraft engine fan blade is described in detail. The results also show that the impact stresses reach sufficiently high magnitudes to cause failures in the impact region at early times of the impact event.

Chamis, C. C.↗

A liquid stratification model to predict failure in thermally damaged EBW detonators

In previous work, commercially available downward facing exploding bridgewire detonators (EBWs) were exposed to elevated temperatures. These detonators were then initiated using a firing set which discharged a high amplitude short duration electrical pulse into a thin gold bridgewire. Responses of the detonators were measured using photonic doppler velocimetry (PDV) and high-speed photography. A time delay of 4 μs between EBW initiation and first movement of an output flyer separated operable detonators from inoperable detonators or duds. Here, we propose a simple method to determine detonator operability from the calculated state of the detonator at the time the firing set is initiated. The failure criterion is based on the gap distance between the exploding bridgewire (EBW) and the adjacent initiating explosive within the detonator which is low-density pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) that melts between 413-415 K (140-142 ºC). The gap forms as PETN melts and flows to the bottom of the input pellet. Melting of PETN is modeled thermodynamically as an energy sink using a normal distribution spread over a temperature range between the onset temperature of 413 K and the ending temperature of 415 K. The extent of the melt is determined from the average temperature of the PETN. The PETN liquid is assumed to occupy the interstitial gas volume in the lower part of the input pellet. The vacated volume from the relocated liquid forms the gap between the EBW and the PETN. The remaining sandwiched layer consists of solid PETN particles and gas filling interstitial volume. We predict that a threshold gap between 17-27 μm separates properly functioning detonators from duds.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Visualizing degradation mechanisms in a gas-fed CO 2 reduction cell via operando X-ray tomography

We utilize operando X-ray computed tomography, coupled with real-time electrochemical analysis, to reveal the underlying failure mechanisms of membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) for electrochemical CO 2 reduction (eCO 2 R). Through operando imaging, we can obtain unprecedented insights into the dynamic behavior of the MEA under different operating conditions, revealing critical changes in interface interactions, phase distribution, and structural integrity over time. Our findings identify phenomena giving rise to the transition from CO 2 R to the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), as evidenced by shifts in cathode potential and CO 2 R selectivity. The formation of inhomogeneous precipitates at the gas diffusion electrode disrupts the CO 2 supply and reduces the active sites for eCO 2 R, resulting in a shift toward H2 production during low current density operation. Additionally, under high current density conditions, rapid water crossover up to the microporous layer/gas diffusion layer promotes the transition from CO 2 R to HER, further shifting cell potential toward anodic direction. Oscillating voltage conditions reveal the dissolution and regrowth of precipitates, providing direct visualization of the competing selectivity of CO 2 R and HER. This work offers new insight into the degradation mechanisms of MEAs, with implications for the design of more durable CO 2 R systems.

Lee, Sol A [California Institute of Technology (Ca↗

Analysis of high velocity impact on hybrid composite fan blades

This paper describes recent developments in the analysis of high velocity impact of composite blades using a computerized capability which consists of coupling a composites mechanics code with the direct-time integration features of NASTRAN. The application of the capability to determine the linear dynamic response of an intraply hybrid composite aircraft engine fan blade is described in detail. The predicted results agree with measured data. The results also show that the impact stresses reach sufficiently high magnitudes to cause failures in the impact region at early times of the impact event.

Chamis, C. C.↗

Postbuckling behavior of selected flat stiffened graphite-epoxy panels loaded in compression

Results of an experimental study of the postbuckling behavior of selected flat stiffened graphite-epoxy panels loaded in compression are presented. The postbuckling response and failure characteristics of undamaged panels and panels damaged by low-speed impact are described. Each panel had four equally-spaced I-spaced stiffeners and 16- or 24-ply quasi-isotropic skins. Panels with three different stiffener spacings were tested. Some undamaged specimens supported as much as three times their initial buckling load before failing. Failure of all panels initiated in a skin-stiffener interface region. Analytical results obtained from a nonlinear general shell finite element analysis computer code correlate well with typical postbuckling test results up to failure. The analytical modeling detail necessary to predict accurately the response of a panel is described. Test results show that low-speed impact damage can reduce the postbuckling strength of a stiffened panel and that the skin-stiffener interface region is more sensitive to impact damage than the skin midway between stiffeners.

Starnes, J. H., Jr.↗

Infant Mortality and Wear-Out Failures in Polymer and MnO2 Tantalum Capacitors

Reliability testing of modern tantalum capacitors shows the presence of both types, infant mortality (IM) and wearout (WO) failures. To assure reliable operation, the probability of IM failures should be reduced to below the specified level, and the time of WO inception should be greater than the required useful life of the parts at operation conditions. In this work, several types of MnO2 and polymer cathode tantalum capacitors have been tested at highly accelerated conditions to assess voltage acceleration factors, determine adequate burn-in conditions, and assess the useful life. A modified time dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) model has been suggested to explain both types of failure, and a physical mechanism of degradation that is based on migration and reactions of oxygen vacancies explains increase of the defect related, IM failures with the level of stress.

tantalum capacitors↗

Failure prediction and estimation of failure parameters

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine frictional state or other parameters in an earthquake zone or other failing medium, using acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes. Predictions of future failures are demonstrated in different regimes. A classifier is trained using time series of acoustic emission data along with historic data of frictional state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and gradient boost trees are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to testing or live data in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, or make predictions regarding a future failure event. The technology has been developed in a double direct shear apparatus, but can be widely applied to seismic faults, other terrestrial failures, or failures in man-made structures. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗

The optimum cost-effective test time for redundant systems with specified reliability and confidence

This paper investigates the optimum test time to determine the number of redundant units needed to achieve high reliability with high confidence. Newly designed systems often have high initial failure rates which can be reduced by testing to find failure modes and remove them by redesign. To accurately estimate the required number of redundant units, the test time must be extended to accurately determine the failure rate. If the measured failure rate is used, there is a 50% chance that the actual hardware failure rate is higher. Using the measured failure rate gives only a 50% confidence that the failure rate and number of spares are not too low. After the test, given the measured failure rate and the desired reliability, the number of spares can be determined and the confidence in the reliability computed. Instead of accepting the reliability results of a fixed duration test, it is possible to set the requirements for both the redundant reliability and the confidence level and then compute the test time needed to minimize the total cost required to achieve these requirements. The confidence that the redundant reliability is not too low is increased by using a higher than measured failure rate to increase the number of spares. The higher number of spares increases cost. Longer test time reduces the variance in the failure rate and the increase in the number of spares, so that test cost increases and spares cost decreases. The total cost is the sum of the cost of the test time and the spares. The optimum test time produces the minimum total cost for the system failure rate, mission length, and required reliability and confidence level. Longer testing is justified by reduced cost. Some examples are given.

Harry W Jones↗

Improved Re-Configurable Sliding Mode Controller for Reusable Launch Vehicle of Second Generation Addressing Aerodynamic Surface Failures and Thrust Deficiencies

In this report we present a time-varying sliding mode control (TV-SMC) technique for reusable launch vehicle (RLV) attitude control in ascent and entry flight phases. In ascent flight the guidance commands Euler roll, pitch and yaw angles, and in entry flight it commands the aerodynamic angles of bank, attack and sideslip. The controller employs a body rate inner loop and the attitude outer loop, which are separated in time-scale by the singular perturbation principle. The novelty of the TVSMC is that both the sliding surface and the boundary layer dynamics can be varied in real time using the PD-eigenvalue assignment technique. This salient feature is used to cope with control command saturation and integrator windup in the presence of severe disturbance or control effector failure, which enhances the robustness and fault tolerance of the controller. The TV-SMC is developed and tuned up for the X-33 sub-orbital technology demonstration vehicle in launch and re-entry modes. A variety of nominal, dispersion and failure scenarios have tested via high fidelity 6DOF simulations using MAVERIC/SLIM simulation software.

Shtessel, Yuri B.↗

Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates

Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Metal Bellows Valve Reliability Testing - Copper Stem Tip Testing

SRNL was funded in Mid-Year FY20 by NNSA NA-231 to continue evaluation of alternate valves for use in tritium service to support domestic Mo-99 production. The focus of the effort was to identify valve cycle life as a function of actuator size and stem tip material. Using the minimum size actuator to reliability open and close valves can reduce glovebox size and thus support domestic companies to “come to market” faster in supplying Mo-99 to the US market. This report serves as a continuation to the FY19 report and summarizes the task activities completed in FY20 after authorization to start work was obtained on May 5 th , 2020. Copper stem tips were tested on the Swagelok 1C and 5C actuated metal bellows valves. With ambitions to cycle each set 150,000 times, both 1C and 5C valves were met with high failure rates. The smaller 1C actuated valves required additional closing pressure to form a seal with the Cu stem tips installed however, excessive stem tip deformation may be the root cause of the majority of the valves failing before 500 cycles. The larger 5C actuated valves were cycled 150,000 times but still resulted in 80% failure rate, suspected of metal fatigue in the bellows due to high cycling frequencies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Enhancement of operational Flexibility of Power Plants Using IN740

Headers are crucial components within diverse industries, especially in the energy sector, as they enable the efficient transfer of fluids. The selection of materials for headers is determined by their specific applications; for example, Grade 91 and Grade 92 steels are commonly utilized. In our research, we recommend the adoption of INCONEL alloy 740 due to its exceptional robustness and heat-resistant characteristics. One critical parameter in header systems is the heat transfer coefficient, which directly influences the efficiency of heat exchange processes and can thereby impact the structural integrity of the headers. This coefficient is closely linked with factors such as the Nusselt number, which is influenced by fluid flow characteristics and thermal properties. The flow direction within headers, whether unidirectional or multidirectional—significantly affects the overall dynamics of heat transfer. This research focuses on exploring the behavior of headers, a specific pipeline system component, using ANSYS simulation software. The study aims to predict heat transfer and mechanical behavior within headers under various conditions through steady-state and transient simulations (parts 1 and 2 of the report). Key parameters such as heat transfer coefficient, velocity, and temperature are examined with the goal of optimizing header design. Part 3 of the report addresses the critical yet underexplored relationship between pressure drop and heat transfer coefficients in the transient flow regime within headers, specifically focusing on smooth horizontal circular tubes. Limited experimental work has been conducted in this area, prompting the need for comprehensive analysis. By leveraging machine learning techniques, this research aims to establish a correlation between pressure drop and heat transfer across various flow conditions, including laminar, transient, quasi-turbulent, and turbulent regimes. The data utilized for this analysis were meticulously gathered from existing literature, capturing simultaneous measurements of pressure drops and heat transfer. Part 4: In the context of power plants, header pipes are essential components that significantly influence system performance by facilitating the collection and distribution of steam. This report highlights the critical role of header pipes in enhancing reliability, efficiency, and overall power plant performance. A key aspect of this investigation is shape optimization, which aims to maximize performance while minimizing material usage. By focusing on shape optimization, this research contributes to improved efficiency and a reduced environmental footprint for power plant installations. The methodology developed in this study emphasizes optimizing header shapes to decrease reliance on expensive alloy materials and lower maintenance costs. Furthermore, a case study was conducted using a header from an operational power plant to validate the proposed optimization techniques. Finally, part 5 addresses the challenges associated with flexible operations in boiler systems, the study outlines several strategies for enhancing the durability and reliability of steam headers. Key approaches include material selection, which involves utilizing advanced materials with superior high-temperature properties and enhanced fatigue resistance to extend the lifespan of steam headers. Design modifications are also recommended, focusing on implementing changes that mitigate thermal stress and cyclic loading to reduce the likelihood of failures under varying operating conditions. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of regular inspection and monitoring by establishing rigorous protocols to detect early signs of damage, allowing for timely maintenance and minimizing the risks of catastrophic failures. Furthermore, operational guidelines are developed to minimize the frequency and severity of thermal transients, ensuring stable and efficient operations. Collectively, these strategies provide a robust framework for overcoming the unique challenges posed by flexible operation in boiler systems, ultimately contributing to improved reliability and performance in power plant operations. Through this comprehensive approach, the study not only enhances the understanding of pressure drop and heat transfer relationships but also promotes advancements in design and operation that will benefit the entire power generation industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Combining Passive Thermography and Acoustic Emission for Large Area Fatigue Damage Growth Assessment of a Composite Structure

Passive thermography and acoustic emission data were obtained for improved real time damage detection during fatigue loading. A strong positive correlation was demonstrated between acoustic energy event location and thermal heating, especially if the structure under load was nearing ultimate failure. An image processing routine was developed to map the acoustic emission data onto the thermal imagery. This required removing optical barrel distortion and angular rotation from the thermal data. The acoustic emission data were then mapped onto thermal data, revealing the cluster of acoustic emission event locations around the thermal signatures of interest. By combining both techniques, progression of damage growth is confirmed and areas of failure are identified. This technology provides improved real time inspections of advanced composite structures during fatigue testing.Keywords: Thermal nondestructive evaluation, fatigue damage detection, aerospace composite inspection, acoustic emission, passive thermography

Zalameda, Joseph N.↗

Advanced Guidance and Control for Hypersonics and Space Access

Advanced guidance and control (AG&C) technologies are critical for meeting safety, reliability, and cost requirements for the next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV), whether it is fully rocket-powered or has air- breathing components. This becomes clear upon examining the number of expendable launch vehicle failures in the recent past where AG&C technologies could have saved a RLV with the same failure mode, the additional vehicle problems where t h i s technology applies, and the costs and time associated with mission design with or without all these failure issues. The state-of-the-art in guidance and control technology, as well as in computing technology, is the point where we can look to the possibility of being able to safely return a RLV in any situation where it can physically be recovered. This paper outlines reasons for AWC, current technology efforts, and the additional work needed for making this goal a reality. There are a number of approaches to AG&C that have the potential for achieving the desired goals. For some of these methods, we compare the results of tests designed to demonstrate the achievement of the goals. Tests up to now have been focused on rocket-powered vehicles; application to hypersonic air-breathers is planned. We list the test cases used to demonstrate that the desired results are achieved, briefly describe an automated test scoring method, and display results of the tests. Some of the technology components have reached the maturity level where they are ready for application to a new vehicle concept, while others are not far along in development.

Hanson, John M.↗

Using Iterative Repair to Increase the Responsiveness of Planning and Scheduling for Autonomous Spacecraft

An autonomous spacecraft must balance long-term and short-term considerations. It must perform purposeful activities that ensure long-term science and engineering goals are achieved and ensure that it maintains positive resource margins. This requires planning in advance to avoid a series of shortsighted decisions that can lead to failure, However, it must also respond in a timely fashion to a somewhat dynamic and unpredictable environment. Thus, spacecraft plans must often be modified due to fortuitous events such as early completion of observations and setbacks such as failure to acquire a guidestar for a science observation. This paper describes the use of iterative repair to support continuous modification and updating of a current working plan in light of changing operating context.

Chien, Steve↗