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NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing DebriSat Fragments: So Many Fragments, So Much Data, and So Little Time

To improve prediction accuracy, the DebriSat project was conceived by NASA and DoD to update existing standard break-up models. Updating standard break-up models require detailed fragment characteristics such as physical size, material properties, bulk density, and ballistic coefficient. For the DebriSat project, a representative modern LEO spacecraft was developed and subjected to a laboratory hypervelocity impact test and all generated fragments with at least one dimension greater than 2 mm are collected, characterized and archived. Since the beginning of the characterization phase of the DebriSat project, over 130,000 fragments have been collected and approximately 250,000 fragments are expected to be collected in total, a three-fold increase over the 85,000 fragments predicted by the current break-up model. The challenge throughout the project has been to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the characteristics of each fragment. To this end, the post hypervelocity-impact test activities, which include fragment collection, extraction, and characterization, have been designed to minimize handling of the fragments. The procedures for fragment collection, extraction, and characterization were painstakingly designed and implemented to maintain the post-impact state of the fragments, thus ensuring the integrity and accuracy of the characterization data. Each process is designed to expedite the accumulation of data, however, the need for speed is restrained by the need to protect the fragments. Methods to expedite the process such as parallel processing have been explored and implemented while continuing to maintain the highest integrity and value of the data. To minimize fragment handling, automated systems have been developed and implemented. Errors due to human inputs are also minimized by the use of these automated systems. This paper discusses the processes and challenges involved in the collection, extraction, and characterization of the fragments as well as the time required to complete the processes. The objective is to provide the orbital debris community an understanding of the scale of the effort required to generate and archive high quality data and metadata for each debris fragment 2 mm or larger generated by the DebriSat project.

Shiotani, B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A GPT‐4 Reticular Chemist for Guiding MOF Discovery**

Abstract We present a new framework integrating the AI model GPT‐4 into the iterative process of reticular chemistry experimentation, leveraging a cooperative workflow of interaction between AI and a human researcher. This GPT‐4 Reticular Chemist is an integrated system composed of three phases. Each of these utilizes GPT‐4 in various capacities, wherein GPT‐4 provides detailed instructions for chemical experimentation and the human provides feedback on the experimental outcomes, including both success and failures, for the in‐context learning of AI in the next iteration. This iterative human‐AI interaction enabled GPT‐4 to learn from the outcomes, much like an experienced chemist, by a prompt‐learning strategy. Importantly, the system is based on natural language for both development and operation, eliminating the need for coding skills, and thus, make it accessible to all chemists. Our collaboration with GPT‐4 Reticular Chemist guided the discovery of an isoreticular series of MOFs, with each synthesis fine‐tuned through iterative feedback and expert suggestions. This workflow presents a potential for broader applications in scientific research by harnessing the capability of large language models like GPT‐4 to enhance the feasibility and efficiency of research activities.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

RELAP-7 Application and Enhancement for FLEX Strategies and ATF Behavior under Extended Loss of AC Power Conditions

This report summarizes the results of a three-year research project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) to enhance and apply the RELAP-7 code by adding and improving several important components (e.g., a mechanistic Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) system model) for thermal hydraulic studies of LWRs under ELAP conditions and evaluating the time available for transition to portable FLEX equipment. The project team included University of Massachusetts–Lowell, The Ohio State University, Texas A&M University, Idaho National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In the Fukushima accident, it was found that the RCIC system played a crucial role in delaying core meltdown by almost three days in Fukushima Daiichi Unit 2, because of self-regulated operation of the steam driven RCIC turbine-pump injection system. Steam flow in the convergent-divergent nozzles of the RCIC Terry turbine is two-phase non-equilibrium transonic flow with homogenous nucleation condensation. To more accurately predict the dynamic process and behavior of the transonic compressible steam flow, a one-dimensional transient two-phase analytical model is presented. A simplified four-fluid model was employed in the present work with the consideration of four separate fluid fields: vapor, liquid film, entrained droplets and condensed droplets. The mass, momentum and energy interactions between the fluids were considered and modeled. An extended seven-equation non-equilibrium critical flow model was developed to obtain the critical pressure and velocities of each phase at the nozzle throat. To predict the wetness in the divergent section, a mechanistic nucleation condensation model was integrated in the nozzle analysis model, considering the generation and consequent growth of droplets. The governing differential equations on a staggered grid were discretized using the second-order Lax-Wendroff scheme with a flux limiter, and the Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equation (SIMPLE) algorithm was employed to solve the discrete linear system. To demonstrate the predictability and reliability of the physical models and the numerical method proposed in the present work, three representative nozzles were modeled and simulated. The results show good agreement with the available experimental data, even for condensation shock. Then, the 1D nozzle model was employed to obtain nozzle flow tables of the Terry turbine nozzle for different working pressures which can cover the operation pressure range of the RCIC system. A mechanistic RCIC turbine-pump system model was developed and implemented in the system code TRACE to simulate dynamic responses of the RCIC system under Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) conditions. The turbine-pump governing equations are based on the control volume approach of the angular momentum balance. The physics based mechanistic RCIC model was developed using the TRACE control system components (i.e., signal variables, control blocks, and tables), and incorporated into a TRACE boiling water reactor (BWR) model. The TRACE model in this report has a detailed nodalization of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV), and all of the major flow paths and system components, including the safety relief valves (SRVs) and the containment suppression pool and drywell. Based on the nozzle flow tables generated from the 1D nozzle model developed, the turbine drive torque can be calculated from table lookup. Since the detailed specifications of the RCIC pump are unavailable, the homologous curves for a Bingham pump were used in the current pump component. A station black-out (SBO) accident test problem was selected to demonstrate the TRACE RCIC model. The short-term SBO simulations were performed for two cladding materials: Zircaloy and FeCrAl, to demonstrate the effect of the accident tolerant fuel cladding on fuel heat-up under BDBA accident conditions. The wetwell plays a vital safety role in SBO and other BWR accident scenarios in that it can reduce containment pressure and supply additional core make-up water. The suppression pool temperature distribution has a very large impact on both RPV and containment pressure. Thus, another novel contribution of the project comes mainly from an improved, systems-level wetwell model which can capture buoyancy-induced thermal stratification effects due to steam injection and condensation. A two-zone stratified wetwell model has been implemented in RELAP-7 and some results from that model are presented. This wetwell model is capable of simulating thermal stratification due to a low steam mass injection rate. With a low mass flow rate, the model assumes that all the steam condenses within the pipe and the resulting plume can be approximated with a purely buoyant, heat-source driven model. The wetwell model developed with these assumptions is adequate to simulate slow transients such as extended SBO transients.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Study of Nonlinear Black-Box Modeling for Power Electronics Converters

With the increasing penetration level of renewable sources and power electronics loads in modern power systems, accurate and computationally efficient models are needed. Black-box model (BBM) could be a useful method in such systems. However, not very extensive research efforts have been made for power electronics BBM so far, and existing works mostly focus on steady-state operation, neglecting the important transient behaviors such as load transients, voltage transients, and faults. This paper presents a comparative study of three commonly used nonlinear BBM approaches for transient behaviors of power electronics converters. Comparison methods are proposed, and the evaluations are conducted under different transients using a grid-connected single-phase photovoltaic inverter. The findings of this study provide valuable references for further feasibility investigations on implementing BBMs in large-scale power electronics-rich power systems.

Qiao, Liang↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based cosmological inference with wavelet harmonics, scattering transforms, and moments of weak lensing mass maps. II. cosmological results

Here, we present a simulation-based cosmological analysis using a combination of Gaussian and non-Gaussian statistics of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey. We implement the following: (1) second and third moments; (2) wavelet phase harmonics; (3) the scattering transform. Our analysis is fully based on simulations, spans a space of seven 𝑤 Cold Dark Matter (𝑤⁢ CDM) cosmological parameters, and forward models the most relevant sources of systematics inherent in the data: masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration. We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a simulation-based inference approach. Including and combining different non-Gaussian statistics is a powerful tool that strongly improves constraints over Gaussian statistics (in our case, the second moments); in particular, the figure of merit (𝑆 8 , Ω m ) is improved by 70% (Λ ⁢CDM) and 90% (𝑤 ⁢CDM). When all the summary statistics are combined, we achieve a 2% constraint on the amplitude of fluctuations parameter 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 , obtaining 𝑆 8 = 0.794 ±0.017 (Λ⁢ CDM) and 𝑆 8 = 0.817 ±0.021 (𝑤 ⁢CDM), and a ∼10% constraint on Ω m , obtaining Ω m =0.259 ±0.025 (Λ ⁢CDM) and Ω m = 0.273 ±0.029 (𝑤⁢ CDM). In the context of the 𝑤⁢ CDM scenario, these statistics also strengthen the constraints on the parameter 𝑤, obtaining 𝑤 <−0.72. The constraints from different statistics are shown to be internally consistent (with a 𝑝-value>0.1 for all combinations of statistics examined). We compare our results to other weak lensing results from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey data, finding good consistency; we also compare with results from external datasets, such as planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background, finding statistical agreement, with discrepancies no greater than <2.2⁢𝜎.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Use of vibrational spectroscopy to identify the formation of neptunyl–neptunyl interactions: a paired density functional theory and Raman spectroscopy study

Actinyl–Actinyl interactions (AAIs) occur in pentavalent actinide systems, particularly for neptunium (Np), and lead to complex vibrational signals that are challenging to analyze and interpret. Previous studies have focused on neptunyl–neptunyl dimeric species, but trimers and tetramers have been identified as the primary motif for extended topologies observed in solid-state materials. Our hypothesis is that trimeric and tetrameric AAIs lead to the additional signals in the vibrational spectra, but this has yet to be explored systematically. Herein, we investigate three different neptunyl–neptunyl subunits (dimeric, trimeric, tetrameric) and determine the vibrational frequencies of the O=Np=O stretches using both computational and experimental approaches. Density Functional Theory (DFT) was used to identify distinct vibrational motions related to specific neptunyl oligomers and compared to previous literature precedent from Np(V) in HClO 4 and HCl systems. The vibrational behavior of Np(V) in HNO 3 was then evaluated via Raman spectroscopy. As the solution evaporated signals were linked to trimeric and tetrameric models. Solid phases produced in the evaporation include (NpO 2 ) 2 (NO 3 ) 2 (H 2 O) 5 and newly identified crystalline phase, Na(NpO 2 )(NO 3 ) 2 ·4H 2 O (NpNa). Furthermore, the combined computational studies and vibrational analysis provide evidence for unique observable vibrational bands for each polymerized subunit, allowing us to assign spectral features to trimeric and tetrameric models within three different simple anionic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2007

Simulation Studies of the Effect of Forest Spatial Structure on InSAR Signature

The height of scattering phase retrieved from InSAR data is considered being correlated with the tree height and the spatial structure of the forest stand. Though some researchers have used simple backscattering models to estimate tree height from the height of scattering center, the effect of forest spatial structure on InSAR data is not well understood yet. A three-dimensional coherent radar backscattering model for forest canopies based on realistic three-dimensional scene was used to investigate the effect in this paper. The realistic spatial structure of forest canopies was established either by field measurements (stem map) or through use of forest growth model. Field measurements or a forest growth model parameterized using local environmental parameters provides information of forest species composition and tree sizes in certain growth phases. A fractal tree model (L-system) was used to simulate individual 3- D tree structure of different ages or heights. Trees were positioned in a stand in certain patterns resulting in a 3-D medium of discrete scatterers. The radar coherent backscatter model took the 3-D forest scene as input and simulates the coherent radar backscattering signature. Interferometric SAR images of 3D scenes were simulated and heights of scattering phase centers were estimated from the simulated InSAR data. The effects of tree height, crown cover, crown depth, and the spatial distribution patterns of trees on the scattering phase center were analyzed. The results will be presented in the paper.

Sun, Guoqing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Topological excitonic insulator with tunable momentum order

Correlated topological materials often maintain a delicate balance among physical symmetries. Many topological orders are symmetry protected, whereas most correlated phenomena arise from spontaneous symmetry breaking. Cases where symmetry breaking induces a non-trivial topological phase are rare. Here we demonstrate the presence of two such phases in Ta 2 Pd 3 Te 5 , where Coulomb interactions form excitons that condense below 100 K, one with zero and the other with finite momentum. We observed a full spectral bulk gap, which stems from exciton condensation. This topological excitonic insulator state spontaneously breaks mirror symmetries but involves a weak structural coupling. Scanning tunnelling microscopy shows gapless boundary modes in the bulk insulating phase. Their magnetic field response, together with theoretical modelling, indicates a topological origin. These observations establish Ta 2 Pd 3 Te 5 as a topological excitonic insulator in a three-dimensional crystal. Finally, our results manifest a unique sequence of topological exciton condensations in a bulk crystal, offering exciting opportunities to study critical behaviour and excitations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2017

Study of the Aluminium Content in AGB Winds Using ALMA Indications for the Presence of Gas-Phase (Al2O3)n Clusters

Context: The condensation of inorganic dust grains in the winds of evolved stars is poorly understood. As of today, it is not yet known which molecular clusters form the first dust grains in oxygen-rich (C/O < 1) asymptotic giant branch (AGB) winds. Aluminium oxides and iron-free silicates are often put forward as promising candidates for the first dust seeds. Aims: We aim to constrain the dust formation histories in the winds of oxygen-rich AGB stars. Methods: We obtained Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter array (ALMA) observations with a spatial resolution of 120 × 150mas tracing the dust formation region of the low mass-loss rate AGB star, R Dor, and the high mass-loss rate AGB star, IK Tau. We detected emission line profiles of AlO, AlOH, and AlCl in the ALMA data and used these line profiles to derive a lower limit of atomic aluminium incorporated in molecules. This constrains the aluminium budget that can condense into grains. Results: Radiative transfer models constrain the fractional abundances of AlO, AlOH, and AlCl in IK Tau and R Dor. We show that the gas-phase aluminium chemistry is completely different in both stars with a remarkable difference in the AlO and AlOH abundance stratification. The amount of aluminium locked up in these three molecules is small, ≤1.1×10−7 w.r.t. H2, for both stars, i.e. only ≤2% of the total aluminium budget. An important result is that AlO and AlOH, which are the direct precursors of alumina (Al2O3) grains, are detected well beyond the onset of the dust condensation, which proves that the aluminium oxide condensation cycle is not fully efficient. The ALMA observations allow us to quantitatively assess the current generation of theoretical dynamical-chemical models for AGB winds. We discuss how the current proposed scenario of aluminium dust condensation for low mass-loss rate AGB stars within a few stellar radii from the star, in particular for R Dor and W Hya, poses a challenge if one wishes to explain both the dust spectral features in the spectral energy distribution (SED) in interferometric data and in the polarized light signal. In particular, the estimated grain temperature of Al2O3 is too high for the grains to retain their amorphous structure. We advocate that large gas-phase (Al2O3)n clusters (n > 34) can be the potential agents of the broad 11µm feature in the SED and in the interferometric data and we propose potential formation mechanisms for these large clusters.

stars↗

DOE OSTI2020

Broadband Characterization and Circuit Model Development of Transmission-Scale Transformers

This report describes broadband measurements of transmission-scale transformers typical in the electric power grid. This work was performed as part of the EMP Resilient Grid LDRD project at Sandia National Laboratories to generate circuit models that can be used for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) coupling simulations and response predictions. The objective of the work was to obtain characterization data of substation yard equipment across a frequency range relevant to HEMP. Vector network analyzer measurements up to 100 MHz were performed on two power transformers at ABB-Hitachi and a single ITEC potential transformer. Custom cable breakouts were designed to interface with the transformer terminals and provide ground connections to the chassis at the base of the transformer bushings. The three-phase terminals of the power transformers were measured as a common mode impedance using a parallel resistive splitter, and the single-phase terminals of the potential transformer were measured directly. A vector fitting algorithm was used to empirically fit circuit models to the resulting two-port networks and input impedances of the measured objects. Simplified circuit representations of the input impedances were also generated to assess the degree of precision needed for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse response predictions, which were performed in Sandia's XYCE circuit simulator platform. HEMP coupling simulations using the transformer models showed significant reduction in the voltage peak and broadening in the pulse width seen at the power transformer compared to the traveling wave voltage. This indicated the importance of the load condition when defining the coupled insult in an electric power substation. Simplified circuit models showed a similar voltage at the transformer with a smoothed waveform. The presence of potential transformers in the simulation did not significantly change the simulated voltage at the power transformer. Single-port input impedance models were also developed to define load conditions when transfer characteristics were not necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1994

Tropical impacts of SST forcing: A case study for 1987 versus 1988

The response of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) to large tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated by evaluating model simulations of the particularly contrasting summer monsoon seasons 1987 and 1988. These years are representative of the warm and cold phases, respectively, of a recent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. An ensemble averaging the results of three simulations was considered for each season, using monthly mean observed SST anomalies for June-August 1987 and 1988 as lower boundary forcing. Consistent with the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF)-analyzed winds, the simulations based on 1988 as compared to 1987 SST exhibit stronger upper-tropospheric irrotational circulation between the monsoon regions and the Southern Hemispheric sub-tropical anticyclones, a stronger Pacific Walker cell and a weaker subtropical westerly jet over the South Pacific. In the same vein, the modeled precipitation, indicating a more northerly position of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in 1988 compared with 1987, is supported by satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation and highly reflective clouds.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems using MOOSE

As an increasing number of companies look toward commercial Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) designs, there is a pressing need to understand the physics of thick-wall chamber gas dynamics. The thick liquid wall approach implements a renewable wall to mitigate the fusion target emissions, thereby reducing the radiation damage rate and significantly extending the lifetime of chamber structures, leading to increased plant availability and reduced waste streams in comparison to dry wall chamber designs. It is necessary, however, to assess the critical performance and safety aspects of these systems. For example, it is crucial to predict (1) where the mass ablated from the liquid walls will vent, which determines the placement of condensing surfaces; (2) debris propagation up the beam lines, which provides essential information for design and protection requirements; (3) peak pressures and impulse on chamber walls, which affect chamber structural design; and (4) momentum transfer to the liquid jets, which constrains the shape and positioning of the jets. In turn, the chamber design and its liquid walls affect shielding requirements, material activation, and tritium fuel cycle. Currently available simulation tools, however, are unable to accurately capture key thick-wall chamber dynamics. Significant assumptions are often made to simplify the system and reduce computational cost and modeling capability needs, but the impact of these assumptions on simulation predictions has not been evaluated. For example, no three-dimensional simulations can be found in the open literature to evaluate gas venting and momentum transfer to the jets with simulations using two-dimensional domains to represent complex three-dimensional geometries. Moreover, limited studies have been dedicated to jet breakup due to both turbulence and neutron heating, and no studies have been found that evaluate how jet breakup can impact shock-jet interaction. Furthermore, effects of radiative heat transfer have rarely been included for the hydrodynamic phase of shock propagation, and integration of proper equations of state in shock dynamics codes has been mostly exploratory. In this study, we use the flexible, high-fidelity Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to model these complex phenomena and inform design and safety studies. Capabilities to model thick-wall chamber gas dynamics are being developed, and the impact of the assumptions listed above (i.e., two-dimensional vs three-dimensional, absence of jet breakout, no radiative heat transfer, and ideal gas behavior) are being quantified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems Using MOOSE-based Multiphysics Simulations

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Three-state majority-vote model on small-world networks

Abstract In this work, we study the opinion dynamics of the three-state majority-vote model on small-world networks of social interactions. In the majority-vote dynamics, an individual adopts the opinion of the majority of its neighbors with probability 1- q , and a different opinion with chance q , where q stands for the noise parameter. The noise q acts as a social temperature, inducing dissent among individual opinions. With probability p , we rewire the connections of the two-dimensional square lattice network, allowing long-range interactions in the society, thus yielding the small-world property present in many different real-world systems. We investigate the degree distribution, average clustering coefficient and average shortest path length to characterize the topology of the rewired networks of social interactions. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the second-order phase transition of the three-state majority-vote dynamics, and obtain the critical noise $$q_c$$ q c , as well as the standard critical exponents $$\beta /\nu$$ β / ν , $$\gamma /\nu$$ γ / ν , and $$1/\nu$$ 1 / ν for several values of the rewiring probability p . We conclude that the rewiring of the lattice enhances the social order in the system and drives the model to different universality classes from that of the three-state majority-vote model in two-dimensional square lattices.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of excess free energy at an interface according to the applied interpolation scheme for elasticity: A phase-field method

Phase-field modeling is an effective simulation technique for modeling microstructure evolution of elastically anisotropic systems. To introduce the elastic energy contribution in a phase field model, an interpolation scheme is used to define the mechanical properties within the phases and across the continuous interface. Several existing interpolation schemes introduce a potential excess elastic energy at the interface, which undesirable effect on microstructure evolution needs to be evaluated. In this study, we focused on three interpolation schemes including Khachaturyan’ scheme (KHS), Voigt–Taylor’s scheme (VTS), and Steinbach–Apel’s scheme (SAS). Comparisons of these schemes’ performances were performed in three configuration types using the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework: bi-crystal, isotropic particle-matrix and anisotropic particle-matrix. The contribution of excess elastic energy on the interface energy as a function of interface width and the computational time to steady-state were evaluated in these three configurations. SAS introduces the lowest excess elastic energy contribution and the VTS has the biggest contribution amongst the considered schemes. Moreover, when modeling precipitation in an anisotropic elastic material, the SAS approach seems to predict more physical convex shapes during growth, making it preferable to KHS and VTS. Finally, as currently implemented, SAS requires the largest computational time and KHS requires the smallest time to reach steady-state amongst the considered schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetic Pathways Templated by Low-Temperature Intermediates during Solid-State Synthesis of Layered Oxides

Layered oxides have been the dominant cathodes in lithium-ion batteries, and among them, high-nickel (Ni) systems are attractive because of their high capacity. For practical use, synthetic control of stoichiometry and structural ordering is crucial but has been nontrivial due to the complexity inherent to synthesis reactions, which often proceed via nonequilibrium pathways. In this paper, we report here a combined in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction and ab initio study of solid-state synthesis of layered oxides starting from acetate precursors for LiCoO 2 and LiNiO 2 and their solid solution LiNi 0.8 Co 0.2 O 2 . While all three systems ultimately evolve into the same thermodynamically stable layered phase ($R\overline{3}m$), each chemistry involves distinct metastable intermediates. We explain the phase progressions using a structural template model, demonstrating that during the synthesis of LiCoO 2 , the formed metastable spinel polymorph (Li 2 Co 2 O 4 ; $Fd\overline{3}m$) is a kinetically facile lithiation product of spinel Co 3 O 4 —the low-temperature (LT) intermediate from the decomposed Co-acetate. Similarly, in the Ni-based systems, the acetate decomposition products, rocksalts (Ni,Co)O, topotactically template the kinetic pathways of forming disordered rocksalts (Li x (Ni,Co) 2–x O 2 ; $Fm\overline{3}m$), consequently leading to off-stoichiometric Li x (Ni,Co)O 2 with undesired high Li/Ni mixing. These findings highlight new opportunities for engineering precursors to form LT intermediates that template the synthesis of target phases and structural properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Signatures of QCD conductivities in heavy-ion collisions

Dissipative processes are pivotal for understanding the hydrodynamic evolution of hot and dense quantum chromodynamics (QCD) matter created in relativistic nuclear collisions. The interplay of multiple conserved charges—net baryon, strangeness, and electric charge—is of particular interest. Here, we simulate the longitudinal hydrodynamic evolution with the three diffusion currents in a hydrodynamic model with a lattice-QCD-based equation of state, NEOS -4 D , and estimate rapidity distributions including diffusive corrections to the phase-space distribution in the presence of multiple charges, which ensure charge conservation at particlization. We determine the response of particle yields at midrapidity to changes in the diagonal and off-diagonal conductivities. Inversely, we find that most components of the conductivity matrix can be constrained experimentally using identified particle multiplicities at different collision energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗