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At least 793 records · Page 44

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Materials and Fuels Complex FY-24 -- FY-28 Five-Year Investment Strategy

MFC supports current RD&D missions while enabling new projects and missions working with DOE-NE sponsors, other federal agencies, private industry, and academia. The investment strategy described in this document guides the efforts to build, expand, and sustain DOE-NE research capabilities at MFC, increase access to MFC capabilities by industry and the nuclear RD&D community, and revitalize existing MFC nuclear infrastructure. The strategy also anticipates and guides the preparations necessary for demonstration of advanced nuclear energy technologies in support of NRIC, the DOE Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) initiative, and nuclear energy and other related critical outcomes identified in the INL Laboratory Plan. The investment strategy for MFC addresses building and improving on these core competencies, introducing new and revitalized RD&D capabilities, and maturing the NRIC test bed. MFC is also implementing new business and operations models to help transform MFC into a complex that supports an advanced nuclear technology development test bed. The strategy for MFC is presented in several parts, each focusing on an element needed for success.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Effectively Considering the Distribution System in Integrated Resource Plans

While electricity planning practices vary by state and utility based on utility type and market structure, integrated resource planning (IRP) remains a prominent vehicle — even in states with centrally-organized wholesale electricity markets. IRP focuses on meeting forecasted long-term electricity needs. Typically, utilities have not considered impacts of design and operation of the low-voltage distribution network in IRP. With advanced capabilities of grid-edge technologies to generate and store electricity and provide load flexibility, and large utility investments in distribution systems, it's increasingly important to consider at least some distribution planning elements in IRP. This report considers the value proposition for doing so, such as reducing utility costs through resource co-optimization and strategic siting of grid-edge resources, and idenfities the most important touchpoints between planning for bulk power and distribution systems and provide a range of tactics for integrating these two processes.

Relf, Grace [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Can color-mixed system technology improve lighting quality and energy efficiency?

LEDs have made tremendous inroads in the architectural lighting market but have yet to reach their potentials for energy efficiency or delivering benefit to building occupants. Progress in color-mixed systems can contribute to both goals with anticipated benefits for luminous efficacy, application efficacy, human health, plant growth, and general satisfaction. These benefits can be achieved because unlike static, broadband white light emitters that are ubiquitous today, color-mixed systems offer spectral flexibility. The prospect of widespread implementation of tunable lighting by the 2030s is exciting, but it will require overcoming several challenges and greater responsibility from the specifier. Now is the time to begin planning and developing effective strategies for deploying color-mixed LED systems. Here we examine the pros, cons, and development path for this technology.

Royer, Michael P.↗

Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 1: ATT Foundations and Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs)

The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 1, held on November 4, 2025, convened experts to address the integration of advanced transmission technologies, including Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) and High Performance Conductors (HPCs), with a focus on digital assurance challenges. The session highlighted the growing importance of cybersecurity, supply chain transparency, reliability, and business risk management in deploying GETs, especially Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs). Participants examined how expanded attack surfaces, limited vendor pools, and new regulatory requirements—such as FERC Orders 881, 2023, and 1920—are influencing utilities and technology providers. The workshop underscored the need for cyber-informed engineering, secure-by-design principles, and practical risk management strategies, while fostering collaboration and knowledge sharing among industry peers. Technical discussions covered the evolution from static to dynamic line ratings, complexities of cloud-based architectures, and NERC CIP compliance challenges. The session concluded with a collaborative risk exercise and a preview of future workshops on advanced power flow control and transmission topology optimization, reinforcing the cohort’s commitment to advancing digital assurance in the energy sector.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Enhanced Lighting Signals for Safety and Efficiency - Experiments With Addressable LEDs

For enhanced roadway safety, clear and immediate visual cues are essential for preventing accidents between drivers and pedestrians. At intersections, however, the line of sight to other roadway users may be obstructed by vehicles and infrastructure. Additionally, adverse conditions, including low visibility, poor weather, or inadequate lighting can increase the potential for collisions. Distracted drivers and pedestrians can further exacerbate the risk of accidents, particularly when using a smartphone, rather than focusing on roadway surroundings. These issues demonstrate the need for infrastructure upgrades that enhance visibility and awareness at crosswalks. A potential solution is through enhanced lighting signals integrated into the roadway infrastructure. One such example is the use of addressable LEDs, individually controllable lights that can change color and brightness instantaneously through programmable microcontrollers. They can be installed and integrated into crosswalks to maintain visibility in conditions where pedestrians may be difficult to see, while also offering peripheral cues to pedestrians who may be distracted by their phones or other objects rather than the road. Such a system (as one example) that is integrated into a traffic intersection digital twin that tracks all roadway users accurately, has the potential to enhance visibility of vulnerable road users, and thus enhance safety. This paper examines the potential implementation and feasibility of this technology, as well as the safety benefits it could provide. Laboratory experiments with addressable LEDs reveal the capabilities and challenges of this technology for roadway infrastructure safety. These findings could pave the way for more integrated lighting in infrastructure for vehicles and pedestrians at intersections, merge and diverge locations, and other areas where complex interactions present safety hazards. Such lighting solutions, enabled by modern computation and communications, could enhance safety and efficiency in our transportation system and improve overall mobility.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Challenges in the designing, planning and deployment of hydrogen refueling infrastructure for fuel cell electric vehicles

Hydrogen can power transportation with near zero greenhouse gas emissions. With government support, early market development is now underway in several nations thanks to technological advances in fuel cell vehicles and electricity generation from renewable energy. Deploying a sustainable hydrogen refueling infrastructure faces methodological and practical challenges ranging from the creation of appropriate codes to managing the co-evolution of the refueling network and growth of the stock of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Furthermore, this paper presents a comprehensive review of the challenges facing the designing, planning and deployment of hydrogen refueling infrastructure progress to date and outlook for the future. The design and costs of refueling infrastructure as well as the lifecycle environmental effects of hydrogen vehicles depend on how hydrogen is produced and delivered to refueling stations. In recent years, important advances have been made in methods for planning the numbers, sizes and location of hydrogen stations. Institutional barriers are also gradually being overcome. Co-evolving the deployment of stations and the demand for fuel cell vehicles remains a crucial subject for future research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Dose Summation Strategies for External Beam Radiation Therapy and Brachytherapy in Gynecologic Malignancy: A Review from the NRG Oncology and NCTN Medical Physics Subcommittees

Definitive, nonsurgical management of gynecologic malignancies involves external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and/or brachytherapy (BT). Summation of the cumulative dose is critical to assess the total biologic effective dose to targets and organs at risk. Cumulative dose calculation from EBRT and BT can be performed with or without image registration (IR) and biologic dose summation. Among these dose summation strategies, linear addition of dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters without IR is the global standard for composite dose reporting. This approach stems from an era without image guidance and simple external beam and brachytherapy treatment approaches. With technological advances, EBRT and high-dose-rate BT have evolved to allow for volume-based treatment planning and delivery. Modern conformal therapeutic radiation involves volumetric or intensity modulated EBRT, capable of simultaneously treating multiple targets at different specified dose levels. Therefore, given the complexity of modern radiation treatment, the linear addition of DVH parameters from EBRT and high-dose-rate BT is challenging to represent the combined dose distribution. Deformable image registration (DIR) between EBRT and image guided brachytherapy (IGBT) data sets may provide a more nuanced calculation of multimodal dose accumulation. However, DIR is still nascent in this regard, and needs further development for accuracy and efficiency for clinical use. Biologic dose summation can combine physical dose maps from EBRT and each IGBT fraction, thereby generating a composite DVH from the biologic effective dose. However, accurate radiobiologic parameters are tissue-dependent and not well characterized. A combination of voxel-based DIR and biologic weighted dose maps may be the best approximation of dose accumulation but remains invalidated. The purpose of this report is to review dose summation strategies for EBRT and BT, including conventional equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions dose summation without image registration, physical dose summation using 3-dimensional rigid IR and DIR, and biologic dose summation. We also provide general clinical workflows for IGBT with a focus on cervical cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Adoption of delivery services in light of the COVID pandemic: Who and how long?

A significant growth in demand for online shopping in light of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID) crisis has received attention from transportation practitioners, policy-makers, and researchers. However, an important question arises in this increase in online shopping and resulting deliveries: How long will this last? Very little is known whether this popularity would last a long time. Here, to address this question, the authors conducted a survey of 915 individuals residing in the U.S. and classified them into the four distinctive consumer types (i.e., the prior adopter, temporary adopter and permanent new adopter, and non-adopter) depending on their usage of delivery services before, during, and after (expected) the COVID crisis. This research aims to gain behavioral insight by exploring the differences between the four consumer types and investigating factors affecting the initial adoption and continuance intention of using delivery services. The descriptive analysis revealed that there are clear differences not only between the four types of consumers but also between the four product types (i.e., grocery, food, home goods, and other packages) considered in the survey. The models found that factors affecting the initial adoption and continuance intention are different from the previous studies conducted before the COVID pandemic. Implications for planning and policymaking are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Water Availability for Biorefineries in the Contiguous United States and the Implications for Bioenergy Production Distribution

Renewable biofuel production depends on many factors, including feedstock availability, refinery and shipment infrastructure, and in particular, water availability. This study assesses water requirement and availability for mainstream biorefinery technologies in the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment is conducted in newly defined spatial units, namely, biorefinery planning boundaries, considering feedstock availability, transportation cost, and refinery capacity requirement for cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that the total biorefinery water use in the CONUS by 2030 will be low compared to the total water availability. However, biorefinery water requirements can aggravate the water stress situation in many regions, including the Great Plains, California Central Valley, and the upper Columbia-Snake River basin in Washington. Bioenergy productions in these regions can be largely constrained by water. Here, it is projected that biofuel production will concentrate in Northern Plains, Lake States, and Corn Belt regions, which contribute 94.4% of the conventional, 86.1% of biodiesel, and 54.8% of cellulosic biofuel production mandated by the renewable fuel standard. If biorefineries are constrained to use less than 10% of the locally available water, up to 7% of planned cellulosic biofuel production will be affected. Findings from this study can aid the sustainable planning of national bioenergy production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TRISO SiC Failure Probability for Reactivity Initiated Accidents in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

This work analyzes the failure process of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) during reactivity-initiated accident scenarios for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) with BISON. Two cases are considered—a group control rod withdrawal (CRW) and a control rod ejection (CRE)—reproduced from a previous study. Failure probability is modeled using Weibull statistics, and worst-case scenario Weibull parameters are adopted to simulate the envelopes in BISON with a one-dimensional TRISO model. CRW scenario results are characterized by higher values of maximum energy deposition and final temperature and volumetric strain with respect to the CRE ones, but the latter have remarkably higher SiC failure probability, mainly due to the offset in strain rates between the two cases. This work also confirms the validity and conservatism of the performance envelopes produced in a previous work by replicating the envelope formulation using RELAP5-3D and RAVEN with a different sampling technique and obtaining consistent results. A sensitivity analysis using the Sobol variance decomposition method on SiC failure probability is then performed involving a set of inputs on both CRW and CRE. The two most important parameters are Weibull modulus and characteristic stress, and their relative importance depends on the specific case. The proposed interpretation of the results is that both energy deposition and strain rate influence the relative degree of importance of the failure parameters. Computation of 95% confidence intervals around worst-case scenario SiC failure probability values is also carried out for four different sets of Weibull parameters. Heren a new criterion for SiC TRISO quality classification built upon safety-based ranges of Weibull parameters is proposed to be integrated in future Fuel-Production Quality Assurance Plans.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Multicarrier Energy Systems: Shaping Our Energy Future

Multicarrier energy systems (MCESs) are characterized by strong coordination in operation and planning across multiple energy vectors and/or sectors to deliver reliable, cost-effective energy services to end users/customers with minimal impact on the environment. They have efficiency and flexibility benefits and are deployed in large and small scales on the supply and demand sides and at the network level but are more complex to control and manage. Here, MCESs are reviewed in the context of future low carbon energy systems based on electrification and very high variable renewable energy penetrations. Fully exploiting these systems requires some cost reductions, more sophisticated operations enabled by standardized communications and control capabilities detailed planning paradigms, and addressing their corresponding economic challenges. All these point toward the direction of analysis, markets, and technology research and development coupled with better policy and regulatory frameworks. One futuristic vision of a very low carbon energy system is proposed that illustrates potential pathways to an MCES-dominated energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Key Considerations for Adoption of Technical Codes and Standards for Battery Energy Storage Systems in Thailand

Battery storage is “technology that enables power system operators and utilities to store energy for later use. A battery energy storage system (BESS) is an electrochemical device that charges (or collects energy) from the grid or a power plant and then discharges that energy at a later time to provide electricity or other grid services when needed”. As countries in Asia consider the inclusion of BESS in their power systems to meet policy objectives, renewable energy goals, increase resilience, and expand energy access, there is an opportunity to learn from the experiences of other regions and jurisdictions that have developed more advanced storage markets and deployment methodologies. This report presents global best practices of codes, standards, and interconnection procedures developed to support the safe and reliable deployment of BESS. Several relevant case studies highlight current efforts to ensure safe operation of BESS and showcase potential pathways for adoption of relevant codes and standards. Specifically, this report is intended to support the Thailand Office of Energy Regulatory Commission (OERC) and other stakeholders in their efforts to develop technical codes and standards to govern the installation and operation of BESS; it may also be utilized as a guide for other countries as interest in the deployment of BESS technologies continues to grow.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2020 Energy Storage Pricing Survey

The annual Energy Storage Pricing Survey (ESPS) series is designed to provide a standardized reference system price for various energy storage technologies across a range of different power and energy ratings. This is an essential first step in comparing systems of the different technologies’ usage costs and total cost of ownership. The final system prices are developed based on data from an extensive set of interviews with representatives across the manufacturing and project development value chain, plus available published data. This information is incorporated into a consistent methodology structure that will allow pricing information to be incorporated at whatever level it was obtained, ranging from component to fully installed system. The ESPS system pricing methodology breaks down the cost of an energy storage system into the following component categories: the storage module; the balance of system; the power conversion system; the energy management system; and the engineering, procurement, and construction costs. By evaluating each of the different component costs separately, a more accurate system cost can be developed that provides internal pricing consistency between different project sizes using the same technology, as well as between different technologies that utilize similar components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DC Solar for All: Implementation Plan to Scale Low- and Moderate- Income Community Solar + Storage Resilience Hubs in the District of Columbia

This implementation plan discusses the District of Columbia's strategy to combine low-income community solar projects with resilience technologies. Through the technical and financial support offered by the Inclusive Shared Solar Initiative and building on extensive stakeholder engagement in LMI neighborhoods around the District, the District of Columbia team expects to reduce energy burdens for LMI residents, address barriers to and streamline SfA program enrollment, and support the development of innovative benefit delivery models, including a community solar-supported climate resilience center.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Sustainable Aviation Fuels from 30,000 feet – Scoping Report

A literature review, first principles analysis, and mapping of the airline-fuel infrastructure were performed to reassess the potential for various means of realizing a sustainable aviation sector. The literature review found a plethora of technical methods to make the airline industry net-zero CO 2 but limited work on the emergent barriers to sustainable aviation implementation such as land use, repurposing of fuel refining assets, and airline cost structures. First principles analyses of the energy, land, and costs of three broad net-zero strategies were performed to determine if sustainable aviation is feasible even in the most optimistic scenarios. Those methods were biomass-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), fuel produced from CO 2 captured from the air and H 2 produced from water electrolysis (air-to-fuel: ATF), and offsetting fossil-derived Jet Fuel with carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (direct air capture and storage: DACS). Offsetting CO 2 emissions from using fossil Jet Fuel with DACS was found to consume the least energy, require the smallest quantity of land, and be the cheapest option. Replacing Jet Fuel with SAF was found to be only slightly more expensive than DACS but require substantially more land. ATF was found to be the most expensive and energy intensive option, though it did spare land relative to SAF. We found that calls to utilize waste biomass are well-founded, but wastes alone cannot cover the needs of the global airline industry. This means additional land will need to be allocated for biomass cultivation if SAF becomes the primary pathway to sustainable aviation. While differences were found in the performance of different types of biomass, those differences were small relative to differences with ATF and DACS. An analysis of the pricing structure of the airline industry suggests that some of the cost advantage of DACS may be erased by consumer sentiment which could explain why, to-date, the airline industry is focused primarily on SAF and to a lesser extent ATF. Further work is required to estimate the transportation, capital cost, and financing cost implications of greenfield and brownfield sites for SAF, DACS, and ATF. In the final report, we will analyze the potential to retrofit corn ethanol facilities to operate the ethanol-to-jet fuel process in response to decreasing gasoline demand as the electrification of road transport progresses. We will also construct a prioritization of land use to determine whether each net-zero CO 2 aviation pathway can make claim to the land required by their technology.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗