Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “technical analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen and Solid Carbon Products from Natural Gas: A Review of Process Requirements, Current Technologies, Market Analysis, and Preliminary Techno Economic Assessment

In this paper, we review relevant technologies—primarily thermochemical and plasma conversion processes—that use natural gas to produce solid carbon and hydrogen, and recent research progress and commercial activities. Technical challenges include the high energetic requirements necessary for methane activation and, for some catalytic processes, the separation of solid carbon product from the spent catalyst. We assess current and new carbon product markets that could be served given technological advances, and we discuss technical barriers and potential areas of research to address these needs. We provide preliminary economic analysis where it was concluded that the cost of pyrolytically produced CO2-free hydrogen can be potentially reduced to <$4/kg target levels with the co-production and sale of sufficiently high-value carbon products.

Dagle, Robert A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic Gears: The Key to Robust, Cost-Effective Hydropower Drivetrains

Based on previous demonstrated success at fabricating 5 and 10 kW scale magnetic gearbox (MGB) prototypes, Emrgy and its partners (the project team) proposed to design and construct a 100 kW scale MGB with a 30:1 gear ratio for the low-head hydro applications. The Statement of Project Objectives included tasks covering: 1) Market Applicability; 2) Technical Metrics; 3) Design (initial); 4) Electromagnetic (EM) Load and Structural Analysis; 5) Modal Analysis; 6) Sealing Design and 7) Final Design during Budget Period 1. Budget Period 2 included tasks covering: 1) Materials Procurement and Test Plan Development; 2) Assembly; and 3) Testing. The Market Applicability study (Task 1) led to a clear conclusion and recommendation toward “Low Head” technologies for maximum market share of both New Stream Reach development as well as powering Non-Powered Dams. The findings of this study also identified the opportunity for a larger scale magnetic gearbox-based drive train as a function of increased torque, as opposed to increased speed. The Technical Metrics Study (Task 2) concluded a horizontal orientation was preferred, examined potential loss mechanisms, concluded that a Halbach Array magnetic design was preferred, established a 30:1 gear ratio as optimal, and established a power rating of 100 kW as optimal. The subsequent initial and final detailed design process included electro-magnetic (EM) load and structural analysis (Task 4), a Modal analysis (for vibration) (Task 5), and a sealing design (Task 6) to assure water impermeability. The final design package (Task 7) included 729 individual parts, 117 unique part numbers, and 15 assemblies. In order to facilitate procurement, the full bill of materials was broken down into several sub-components: 1) custom magnetic parts; 2) custom machined parts; 3) custom casted parts; and 4) commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. The casted parts were fabricated by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) via a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with Emrgy and funded by the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO). The procurement effort (Task 8) ultimately covered three time periods based on challenges encountered in meeting the budgeted cost for the prototype. Following the first effort in the early stages of Budget Period 2 in 2017, a no-cost time extension was granted to seek alternative fabrication and procurement options. The project was re-booted in 2020 based on the new ORNL CRADA that would focus on five (5) of the more difficult and expensive parts using their advanced manufacturing expertise. Procurement efforts for the other custom machined parts resulted in quotations that still exceeded the budget by more than $\$$100k. This was, in part, also due to the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic that caused both supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. As the project continued, pricing and availability degraded further. In Q2 FY’22, it was decided to not proceed with the fabrication of the prototype (Task 9) based on budgetary limitations. Outcomes included a full and detailed design of a 100 kW magnetic gearbox and associated indented bill of materials (BOM) and CAD drawings, a full assembly instruction manual with an associated BOM for materials necessary to support assembly, the fabrication of the double Halbach magnetic array for the rotor/stator system, fabrication of five (5) sand-casted/machined parts (via CRADA with ORNL) and an initial draft of a comprehensive testing plan. The most significant non-outcome was the actual fabrication and testing of the prototype gearbox based on budget limitations. Lessons learned included the need for an Application / Design / Cost trade analysis to better elucidate the cost potential of the MGB in the projected volumes anticipated for future demand. This would better establish the efficacy of the original cost target ($\$$0.80/Watt) and/or the need for reconsideration of designs and applications. Likewise, additional consideration of the prototype nature of the gearbox – single use, short lifetime, etc. - either as a separate exercise or in place of the design process completed, to reduce the cost of the demonstration prototype device. Additionally, project continuity was cited as a significant risk based on the loss of the primary design engineering firm after Budget Period 1. A design analysis exercise was conducted at the conclusion of the project to identify potential areas for cost reduction. One concept considered was the removal of the inner ring of magnets (with associated changes in the outer ring magnets) to enable a horizontal collapse of the design. It was estimated this could reduce cost by 10-25% without impacting performance.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving and Automating Building Model Data Exchange

There are many instances throughout a project’s lifecycle where there arises a need for quick and accurate risk assessment of building designs. For example, an unexpected design change during construction may necessitate structural engineers to perform a seismic risk assessment on analytical models of the updated building design using high fidelity structural analysis software, such as ANSYS or Abaqus. However, the efficiency of such workflows often depends upon the interoperability of architectural design software and structural analysis software. When the quality of this interoperability is lacking or even non-existent, the efficiency of virtual engineering workflows is hampered, which increases project costs. A McGraw Hill industry survey of professional users of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technologies found that there is high demand for BIM interoperability for structural analysis, but that the value/difficulty ratio is currently too low for practical use. There have been efforts by the academic community to facilitate model data exchange between the architectural design and structural analysis domains, but such solutions have not been widely adopted by industry, face technical challenges, and oftentimes are limited in applicability for users of various BIM software. Therefore, INL is developing capabilities to improve, automate, and generalize model data exchange between architectural BIM software (e.g., Revit) and structural analysis software (e.g., SAP2000, ANSYS). The goal is to help expedite and automate as much of the pre-processing step for creating analytical models in finite element analysis software as reasonably as possible. Such a "BIM-to-FEA" conversion tool should provide direct benefit to end-users through accuracy, automation, quick turn-around, and wide applicability. To generalize the application of this BIM-to-FEA conversion tool and increase its useability among the many different commercial BIM software currently used by industry, the program is being developed with the concept of openBIM. OpenBIM is the application of non-proprietary, open data standards that allow for BIM model data exchange in a format that is accessible, retainable, and useable for all users. The most widely used open, non-proprietary data exchange format for BIM is the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) schema. IFC is developed by buildingSMART international and is ISO certified (ISO 16739-1:2018). The BIM-to-FEA conversion tool is being developed for compatibility with typical commercial building designs of steel framed structures. The tool is currently capable of importing architectural BIM data of framed building structures, recognizing and extracting the aspects of the model that are required for structural analysis, adjusting the connectivity of frame members, and finally exporting to an analytical model stored in the IFC format. The exported IFC analytical model can then be imported into various openBIM compliant software, such as SAP2000. Such capabilities have already been tested on commercial software, as shown above, and continue to be improved. Work is underway to test the conversion on various commercial BIM software, develop a user-friendly interface, incorporate the program into the broader DeepLynx data warehouse project being developed by INL, and to eventually open-source the tool for the benefit of the community. Future development of the tool envisions the ability for efficient iterative risk assessment of generative building designs, all within a workflow utilizing open-source tools. One such open-source tool will be MOOSE, an advanced finite element analysis tool developed at INL. The conversion tool will also branch out from typical commercial building designs and will aim to incorporate nuclear construction. The aim will be to convert both structural and non-structural components of nuclear facilities, such as curved concrete containment structures and piping systems, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hydrogen Gas Retention and Release from WTP Vessels: Summary of Preliminary Studies

The Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is currently being designed and constructed to pretreat and vitrify a large portion of the waste in the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site. A number of technical issues related to the design of the pretreatment facility (PTF) of the WTP have been identified. These issues must be resolved prior to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of River Protection (ORP) reaching a decision to proceed with engineering, procurement, and construction activities for the PTF. One of the issues is Technical Issue T1 - Hydrogen Gas Release from Vessels (hereafter referred to as T1). The focus of T1 is identifying controls for hydrogen release and completing any testing required to close the technical issue. In advance of selecting specific controls for hydrogen gas safety, a number of preliminary technical studies were initiated to support anticipated future testing and to improve the understanding of hydrogen gas generation, retention, and release within PTF vessels. These activities supported the development of a plan defining an overall strategy and approach for addressing T1 and achieving technical endpoints identified for T1. Preliminary studies also supported the development of a test plan for conducting testing and analysis to support closing T1. Both of these plans were developed in advance of selecting specific controls, and in the course of working on T1 it was decided that the testing and analysis identified in the test plan were not immediately needed. However, planning activities and preliminary studies led to significant technical progress in a number of areas. This report summarizes the progress to date from the preliminary technical studies. The technical results in this report should not be used for WTP design or safety and hazards analyses and technical results are marked with the following statement: “Preliminary Technical Results for Planning – Not to be used for WTP Design or Safety Analyses.”

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

In Situ Characterization of Boehmite Particles in Water Using Liquid SEM

In situ imaging and elemental analysis of boehmite (AlOOH) particles in water is realized using the System for Analysis at the Liquid Vacuum Interface (SALVI) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). This paper describes the method and key steps in integrating the vacuum compatible SAVLI to SEM and obtaining secondary electron (SE) images of particles in liquid in high vacuum. Energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDX) is used to obtain elemental analysis of particles in liquid. A synthesized AlOOH particle is used as a model in the liquid SEM illustration. Our results demonstrate that particles can be imaged in the SE mode with good resolution. The AlOOH EDX spectrum shows significant signal from the Al compared with deionized water and the empty channel control. In situ liquid SEM is a powerful technique to study particles in liquid with many exciting applications. This procedure aims to provide technical details in how to conduct liquid SEM imaging and EDX analysis using SALVI and reduce potential pitfalls using this approach for other researchers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Analysis of Distributed Energy Generation in Crow Creek, Alaska

Through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities (E2C) program, NLR, other national laboratory experts, and select organizations provide Expert Match - free, short-term technical assistance to address near-term energy challenges and questions. Expert Match is for community stakeholders who have decision-making power or influence in their community but need access to additional energy expertise to inform key upcoming decisions. This Expert Match request supported Crow Creek in Girdwood, AK with a feasibility analysis for a microgrid to provide year-round power across the community.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Integrated Safety and Security Models for Comprehensive Reliability and Resiliency Evaluation

The security of the electric grid and supporting energy systems is crucial to national security. One of the complexities in analyzing the security of energy systems is the safety consequences that may result from accidents. For energy systems, the goal is to ensure that they operate as intended and that any consequences are mitigated or prevented. The integration of safety and security is paramount to protecting these systems from attacks and ensuring that large consequences are prevented. This report describes an integrated safety and security methodology to evaluate cybersecurity events that can lead to large consequences. This novel approach first describes how Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) provides a digital causal analysis for Bayesian Networks (BNs). The use of STPA causal analysis provides a systematic approach to constructing BNs that adequately model cyber scenarios that result in consequences. When combined with the technical principles described in Risk-Informed Management of Enterprise Systems (RIMES), a comprehensive risk-informed cybersecurity analysis results that allows decision-makers to prioritize systems that most impact risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of Environmentally Friendly Refrigerant Options for Window Air Conditioners

This paper presents a technical assessment of environmentally friendly refrigerants as alternatives to R410A for window air conditioners. The alternative refrigerants that are studied for its replacement include R32, a mixture of R32/R125 with 90%/10% molar concentration, R600a, R290, R1234yf, R1234ze and R134a. Baseline experiments were performed on a window unit charged with R410A. The heat pump design model (HPDM) was modified and calibrated with the baseline data and was used to evaluate the comparative performance of the WAC with alternative refrigerants. The paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each refrigerants and their suitability for window air conditioners. Among all the refrigerants studied, R32 offers the best efficiency and the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP), and hence its use will result in the overall environmental friendliness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2014

Analysis of Background Gamma-Radiation Amplitude Variation at U.S. Ports of Entry

The Technical Reachback (TRB) project analyzes data and builds tools to enhance the capability for interdiction of illicit nuclear material at U.S. border crossings. The work done by TRB allows for a more precise classification of radioactive isotopes, pattern detection in traffic, and formulation of effective defenses.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2015

High Fidelity Forward Model Development for Nuclear Reactor Spent Fuel Technical Nuclear Forensics

The fidelity of the forward model within a spent fuel forensic analysis system was improved by using two unique methodologies. The first consisted of developing a system to create accurate one-group neutron cross-section libraries for any user specified reactor system. In such, a detailed model is developed using the depletion code MONTEBURNS. During MONTEBURNS execution, cross-section libraries are generated at every user specified burnup step in time. These libraries could be developed for many reactor systems, then housed in a database and used for analyzing unknown fuel samples. The forensic analysis system for spent fuel resulted in higher accuracy at predicting the initial uranium isotopic compositions and burnup from spent fuel samples. Using this method, the error in results was reduced from the order of 1-6% down to less than 1% when recovering a fuel sample's burnup and initial uranium isotopic composition. The second method consisted of implementing 2D/3D reactor depletion codes as the forward model within the system's framework. This method would allow the usage of potentially recoverable geometric information from an unknown sample. No predetermined cross-section library is required for the system using this method, therefore potentially reducing model error associated with the neutron flux spectrum. The accuracy of the recovered initial uranium isotopic compositions and burnup from spent fuel samples was also improved using this method, even more so than the first. For MTR reactors, the error using this method was significantly reduced and was driven to below 0.5%. However, additional research may be required to determine the ideal fission yield and recoverable energy per fission for cases where significant amounts of 239 PU are bred and burned throughout the life of the fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applicability of the ARCON96 Code to the Radiological Consequence Analysis of Releases from the Radioassay and Non-Destructive Testing (RANT) Facility

Establish technical justification to demonstrate that the horizontal diffusion parameter (σy) and vertical diffusion parameter (σz) that are embedded in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Atmospheric Relative CONcentrations (ARCON96) code are representative of the meteorological conditions at LANL. Compare the ARCON96 atmospheric diffusion factor ( X /Q) to the MACCS2-calculated X /Q for the determination of radiological consequences of ground releases from the Radioassay and Non-Destructive Testing (RANT) facility on the key receptors, the colocated worker (CW) and Maximally-Effected Offsite Individual (MEOI).

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC): Users’ Manual and Technical Documentation

The carbon intensities (CIs) of biofuels are determined with the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique, which accounts for the energy/material uses and emissions during the complete supply chain of biofuel including feedstock production and fuel conversion stages. Regulatory agencies such as California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopts LCA to calculate biofuel CIs. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program developed by CARB allows individual biofuel conversion facilities to submit their own biofuel CIs with their facility input data and incentivizes the reduction in the CI specific to that particular facility compared to a reference fuel’s CI (Liu et al 2020). Such an incentive program has driven innovations in biorefineries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by linking their revenue directly to its CI score through LCFS credit trading. Besides the biofuel conversion stage, different farming practices for feedstock growth can result in significant CI variations for feedstocks, thus for biofuels. To provide evidence-based research findings, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) has supported the Systems Assessment Center of the Energy Systems and Infrastructure Analysis Division at Argonne National Laboratory to examine CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural crops for biofuel production. Meanwhile, the ARPA-E has launched the Systems for Monitoring and Analytics for Renewable Transportation Fuels from Agricultural Resources and Management (SMARTFARM) program to develop technologies and data platforms that enable an accurate measurement of key farming parameters that can help robust accounting of the GHG benefits of sustainable, low-carbon agronomic practices at farm level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic assessment for the production of algal fuels and value-added products: opportunities for high-protein microalgae conversion

Abstract Background Microalgae possess numerous advantages for use as a feedstock in producing renewable fuels and products, with techno-economic analysis (TEA) frequently used to highlight the economic potential and technical challenges of utilizing this biomass in a biorefinery context. However, many historical TEA studies have focused on the conversion of biomass with elevated levels of carbohydrates and lipids and lower levels of protein, incurring substantial burdens on the ability to achieve high cultivation productivity rates relative to nutrient-replete, high-protein biomass. Given a strong dependence of algal biomass production costs on cultivation productivity, further TEA assessment is needed to understand the economic potential for utilizing potentially lower-cost but lower-quality, high-protein microalgae for biorefinery conversion. Results In this work, we conduct rigorous TEA modeling to assess the economic viability of two conceptual technology pathways for processing proteinaceous algae into a suite of fuels and products. One approach, termed mild oxidative treatment and upgrading (MOTU), makes use of a series of thermo-catalytic operations to upgrade solubilized proteins and carbohydrates to hydrocarbon fuels, while another alternative focuses on the biological conversion of those substrates to oxygenated fuels in the form of mixed alcohols (MA). Both pathways rely on the production of polyurethanes from unsaturated fatty acids and valorization of unconverted solids for use as a material for synthesizing bioplastics. The assessment found similar, albeit slightly higher fuel yields and lower costs for the MA pathway, translating to a residual solids selling price of $899/ton for MA versus $1033/ton for MOTU as would be required to support a $2.50/gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) fuel selling price. A variation of the MA pathway including subsequent upgrading of the mixed alcohols to hydrocarbon fuels (MAU) reflected a required solids selling price of $975/ton. Conclusion The slight advantages observed for the MA pathway are partially attributed to a boundary that stops at oxygenated fuels versus fungible drop-in hydrocarbon fuels through a more complex MOTU configuration, with more comparable results obtained for the MAU scenario. In either case, it was shown that an integrated algal biorefinery can be economical through optimal strategies to utilize and valorize all fractions of the biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

GridLAB-D Technical Support Document: Residential Equivalent Thermal Parameter Model

GridLAB-D is a power distribution systems simulation and analysis tool developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Although GridLAB-D and its underlying residential load model has been used in a variety of power systems analyses, comprehensive documentation of the derivation of the residential house model has not been formally published. The purpose of this technical support document is to serve as a comprehensive resource for the thermal dynamics modeling and house definition implemented in GridLAB-D. It covers model derivation, parameter definitions, and implementation steps in the codebase.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Developing a Validation Methodology for Expert-Informed Bayesian Network Models Supporting Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

Under the auspices of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Signature Discovery Initiative (SDI), the research team developed a series of Bayesian Network models to assess multi-source signatures of nuclear programs. A Bayesian network is a mathematical model that can be used to marshal evidence to assess competing hypotheses. The purpose of the models was to allow non-expert analysts to benefit from the use of expert-informed mathematical models to assess nuclear programs, because such assessments require significant technical expertise ranging from the nuclear fuel cycle, construction and engineering, imagery analysis, and so forth. One such model developed under this research was aimed at assessing the consistency of open-source information about a nuclear facility with the facility’s declared use. The model incorporates factors such as location, security and safety features among others identified by subject matter experts as crucial to their assessments. The model includes key features, observables and their relationships. The model also provides documentation, which serves as training materials for the non-experts.

White, Amanda M.↗