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Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗

Examining astrophysical gas cloud collapse using an optical depth-scaled, x-ray-irradiated, carbon-foam sphere

When stellar radiation interacts with a molecular cloud, the cloud's fate depends on the strength of the incident radiation and the radiation's mean-free-path within the cloud [F. Bertoldi, Astrophys. J. 346, 735–755 (1989)]. Under the right conditions, the radiation compresses the cloud and a star formation may occur. Where and when the stellar formation occurs in the cloud's collapse are open questions. Direct observation of the complete star–cloud lifecycle is nearly impossible due to the immense timescales and distances over which the interaction occurs. Laboratory astrophysics offers a way to investigate such a system by scaling the important astrophysical parameters to the laboratory. This work describes laboratory experiments to study the radiation-driven implosion of clouds, using x rays from a laser-irradiated, thin, gold foil as a surrogate star and a carbon-foam sphere as a surrogate cloud. An optically thick system, theoretically corresponding to a star-forming regime, was selected by choice of the foam density. Gold foil and sphere motions were imaged by x-ray radiography. Radiographic images show the formation of an interface between rarefied gold and carbon plasmas, a shock moving into the sphere, and a blunting of the initial sphere's shape. Measurements show that the shock moved linearly around 64 μm/ns into the sphere, and the gold–carbon interface formed by 2 ns at the sphere edge remained stationary. The deformation of the sphere was driven by the incident radiation and not by mechanical pressures applied by gold plasma. The blunting of the sphere was likely due to the geometric reduction of flux near the sphere's poles. Higher x-ray flux near the sphere's equator caused high compression and a faster shock, which flattened the sphere. We will discuss the results and implications of our observations.

VanDervort, R. W. [University of Michigan 1 , Ann ↗

Neural network acceleration of large-scale structure theory calculations

Here, we make use of neural networks to accelerate the calculation of power spectra required for the analysis of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing data. For modern perturbation theory codes, evaluation time for a single cosmology and redshift can take on the order of two seconds. In combination with the comparable time required to compute linear predictions using a Boltzmann solver, these calculations are the bottleneck for many contemporary large-scale structure analyses. Here, we construct neural network-based surrogate models for Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) predictions of matter power spectra, real and redshift space galaxy power spectra, and galaxy-matter cross power spectra that attain ~ 0.1% (at one sigma) accuracy over a broad range of scales in a ωCDM parameter space. The neural network surrogates can be evaluated in approximately one millisecond, a factor of 1000 times faster than the full Boltzmann code and LPT computations. In a simulated full-shape redshift space galaxy power spectrum analysis, we demonstrate that the posteriors obtained using our surrogates are accurate compared to those obtained using the full LPT model. We make our surrogate models public at https://github.com/sfschen/EmulateLSS, so that others may take advantage of the speed gains they provide to enable rapid iteration on analysis settings, something that is essential in complex contemporary large-scale structure analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The case for digital twins in metal additive manufacturing

The digital twin (DT) is a relatively new concept that is finding increased acceptance in industry. A DT is generally considered as comprising a physical entity, its virtual replica, and two-way digital data communications in-between. Its primary purpose is to leverage the process intelligence captured within digital models—or usually their faster-solving surrogates—towards generating increased value from the physical entities. The surrogate models are created using machine learning based on data obtained from the field, experiments and digital models, which may be physics-based or statistics-based. Anomaly detection and correction, and diagnostic closed-loop process control are examples of how a process DT can be deployed. In the manufacturing industry, its use can achieve improvements in product quality and process productivity. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) stands to gain tremendously from the use of DTs. This is because the AM process is inherently chaotic, resulting in poor repeatability. However, a DT acting in a supervisory role can inject certainty into the process by actively keeping it within bounds through real-time control commands. Closed-loop feedforward control is achieved by observing the process through sensors that monitor critical parameters and, if there are any deviations from their respective optimal ranges, suitable corrective actions are triggered. The type of corrective action (e.g. a change in laser power or a modification to the scanning speed) and its magnitude are determined by interrogating the surrogate models. Because of their artificial intelligence (AI)-endowed predictive capabilities, which allow them to foresee a future state of the physical twin (e.g. the AM process), DTs proactively take context-sensitive preventative steps, whereas traditional closed-loop feedback control is usually reactive. Apart from assisting a build process in real-time, a DT can help with planning the build of a part by pinpointing the optimum processing window relevant to the desired outcome. Again, the surrogate models are consulted to obtain the required information. In this article, we explain how the application of DTs to the metal AM process can significantly widen its application space by making the process more repeatable (through quality assurance) and cheaper (by getting builds right the first time).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Methods to Account for CAP-88 PC-Omitted Nuclides in Radioactive Air Emissions From DOE Facilities

Routine research and development activities at US Department of Energy facilities can result in the release of radioactive emissions, potentially exposing the public and the environment. Such emissions are subject to certain Clean Air Act regulations, specifically those outlined in 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H, which are enforced by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Compliance is determined in part with a dose standard. Doses to members of the public from most US Department of Energy facility airborne emissions are modeled using CAP-88 PC software, the latest version of which contains more than 1,200 radionuclides. Radioactive effluents from US Department of Energy facilities may contain radioisotopes that are not available in CAP-88 PC, and those radioisotopes must still be evaluated to determine whether doses to members of the public are below established limits. CAP-88 PC-omitted radionuclides can be accounted for using alternate methods, including the use of surrogate radionuclides. Here, this paper elucidates the process of accounting for CAP-88 PC-omitted radionuclides by providing criteria and rationale for surrogate selection, a compilation of surrogate radionuclides used in the past by US Department of Energy facilities, a discussion of alternate methods used to account for CAP-88 PC-omitted radionuclides and a comparison of methods and impacts on receptor doses. Ultimately, this paper aims to aid in the process of surrogate selection and consequently to simplify and expedite compliance with Clean Air Act regulations.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

A Bayesian Multi-fidelity Neural Network to Predict Nonlinear Frequency Backbone Curves

The use of structural mechanics models during the design process often leads to the development of models of varying fidelity. Often low-fidelity models are efficient to simulate but lack accuracy, while the high-fidelity counterparts are accurate with less efficiency. Here, this paper presents a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling approach that combines the accuracy of a high-fidelity finite element model with the efficiency of a low-fidelity model to train an even faster surrogate model that parameterizes the design space of interest. The objective of these models is to predict the nonlinear frequency backbone curves of the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge benchmark structure which exhibits simultaneous nonlinearities from frictional contact and geometric nonlinearity. The surrogate model consists of an ensemble of neural networks that learn the mapping between low and high-fidelity data through nonlinear transformations. Bayesian neural networks are used to assess the surrogate model's uncertainty. Once trained, the multi-fidelity neural network is used to perform sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the design parameters on the predicted backbone curves. Additionally, Bayesian calibration is performed to update the input parameter distributions to correlate the model parameters to the collection of experimentally measured backbone curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Tencoder: tensor-product encoder-decoder architecture for predicting solutions of PDEs with variable boundary data

It is widely hoped that artificial intelligence will boost data-driven surrogate models in science and engineering. However, fundamental spatial aspects of AI surrogate models remain under-studied. We investigate the ability of neural-network surrogate models to predict solutions to PDEs under variable boundary values. We do not wish to retrain the model when the boundary values change but to make them inputs to the model and infer the solution of the PDE under those boundary conditions. Such a capability is essential to making AI-based surrogate models practically useful. While simple feedforward networks are used for one-dimensional (1D) Poisson equation, an encoder-decoder architecture with a tensor-product layer is developed for the two-dimensional Poisson equation posed on a rectangular domain. We show that it is indeed possible to infer solutions to PDEs from variable boundary data using neural networks in this relatively simple setting, and point to future directions.

Kashi, Aditya↗

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Context-Aware Learning for Inverse Design in Photovoltaics

This document describes progress in the ARPA-E DIFFERENTIATE project titled “Context-Aware Learning for Inverse Design in Photovoltaics” during the period of May 2019 to May 2022. This project is being performed at Iowa State University, New York University, Stanford University, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project aims to develop a new machine learning (ML) framework to significantly accelerate the design of organic microstructures for improved organic photovoltaic performance. In this project, we had developed an inverse design framework using Deep Learning called InvNets for generating microstructures with desired physics-driven properties. As a preliminary product, in Milestone 3, we demonstrated how InvNets show 20% improvement in the performance of the microstructures and over 100X speedup in the performance compared to traditional processes for physics-driven inverse design. Later, in Milestone 6, we demonstrated that InvNets work for more complex physics properties, specifically, generating microstructures for organic photovoltaic cells with desired current-voltage characteristics. Further, in Milestone 4, we explored the idea of using physics-aware surrogates for obtaining solutions of partial differential equations(PDE) called as DiffNets(now called as NeuFENets to avoid ambiguity of names). The connection between both frameworks is that DiffNet surrogates form the physics-aware surrogate in the InvNet framework. Finally in Milestone 8, we extend our framework for other physics domains. Specifically, we explore building geometry-aware NeuFENets by developing physics surrogates that exploit ideas from traditional immersed boundary finite element methods. With these updates, we are able to achieve all the Milestones.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy-efficient, Large-scale Molecular Dynamics Simulations via Hardware- and Algorithm-level Optimization

This work aims to develop a framework for energy-efficient computing that will enable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of large-scale phenomena with atomic precision and simultaneously remove computational bottlenecks limiting the speed of MD simulations. We seek to implement such an approach through the development of surrogate models for the interatomic force calculation combined with the use of mixed numerical precision formats. For a model system of neutral atoms (only pairwise interactions), significant force calculation efficiency improvements were achieved, without detrimental effects on atomic structures or average energies, using single precision, by developing a surrogate model (deep neural network), and by quantizing this surrogate model. For a model system of charged atoms, the reciprocal-space calculation of electrostatic interactions was identified as the main bottleneck, and the development of a surrogate model should be pursued to achieve an estimated one-order-of-magnitude additional speedup.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam

Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.

Hobbs, Michael L.↗

Investigation of Navier-Stokes Code Verification and Design Optimization

With rapid progress made in employing computational techniques for various complex Navier-Stokes fluid flow problems, design optimization problems traditionally based on empirical formulations and experiments are now being addressed with the aid of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). To be able to carry out an effective CFD-based optimization study, it is essential that the uncertainty and appropriate confidence limits of the CFD solutions be quantified over the chosen design space. The present dissertation investigates the issues related to code verification, surrogate model-based optimization and sensitivity evaluation. For Navier-Stokes (NS) CFD code verification a least square extrapolation (LSE) method is assessed. This method projects numerically computed NS solutions from multiple, coarser base grids onto a freer grid and improves solution accuracy by minimizing the residual of the discretized NS equations over the projected grid. In this dissertation, the finite volume (FV) formulation is focused on. The interplay between the xi concepts and the outcome of LSE, and the effects of solution gradients and singularities, nonlinear physics, and coupling of flow variables on the effectiveness of LSE are investigated. A CFD-based design optimization of a single element liquid rocket injector is conducted with surrogate models developed using response surface methodology (RSM) based on CFD solutions. The computational model consists of the NS equations, finite rate chemistry, and the k-6 turbulence closure. With the aid of these surrogate models, sensitivity and trade-off analyses are carried out for the injector design whose geometry (hydrogen flow angle, hydrogen and oxygen flow areas and oxygen post tip thickness) is optimized to attain desirable goals in performance (combustion length) and life/survivability (the maximum temperatures on the oxidizer post tip and injector face and a combustion chamber wall temperature). A preliminary multi-objective optimization study is carried out using a geometric mean approach. Following this, sensitivity analyses with the aid of variance-based non-parametric approach and partial correlation coefficients are conducted using data available from surrogate models of the objectives and the multi-objective optima to identify the contribution of the design variables to the objective variability and to analyze the variability of the design variables and the objectives. In summary the present dissertation offers insight into an improved coarse to fine grid extrapolation technique for Navier-Stokes computations and also suggests tools for a designer to conduct design optimization study and related sensitivity analyses for a given design problem.

Vaidyanathan, Rajkumar↗

Opposed Jet Burner Extinction Limits: Simple Mixed Hydrocarbon Scramjet Fuels vs Air

Opposed Jet Burner tools have been used extensively by the authors to measure Flame Strength (FS) of laminar non-premixed H2 air and simple hydrocarbon (HC) air counterflow diffusion flames at 1-atm. FS represents a strain-induced extinction limit based on air jet velocity. This paper follows AIAA-2006-5223, and provides new HC air FSs for global testing of chemical kinetics, and for characterizing idealized flameholding potentials during early scramjet-like combustion. Previous FS data included six HCs, pure and N2-diluted; and three HC-diluted H2 fuels, where FS decayed very nonlinearly as HC was added to H2, due to H-atom scavenging. This study presents FSs on mixtures of (candidate surrogate) HCs, some with very high FS ethylene. Included are four binary gaseous systems at 300 K, and a hot ternary system at approx. 600 K. The binaries are methane + ethylene, ethane + ethylene, methane + ethane, and methane + propylene. The first three also form two ternary systems. The hot ternary includes both 10.8 and 21.3 mole % vaporized n-heptane and full ranges of methane + ethylene. Normalized FS data provide accurate means of (1) validating, globally, chemical kinetics for extinction of non-premixed flames, and (2) estimating (scaling by HC) the loss of incipient flameholding in scramjet combustors. The n-heptane is part of a proposed baseline simulant (10 mole % with 30% methane + 60% ethylene) that mimics the ignition of endothermically cracked JP-7 like kerosene fuel, as suggested by Colket and Spadaccini in 2001 in their shock tube Scramjet Fuels Autoignition Study. Presently, we use FS to gauge idealized flameholding, and define HC surrogates. First, FS was characterized for hot nheptane + methane + ethylene; then a hot 36 mole % methane + 64% ethylene surrogate was defined that mimics FS of the baseline simulant system. A similar hot ethane + ethylene surrogate can also be defined, but it has lower vapor pressure at 300 K, and thus exhibits reduced gaseous capacity. The new FS results refine our earlier idealized reactivity scale that shows wide ranging (50 x) diameter-normalized FSs for various HCs. These range from JP-10 and methane to H2 air, which produces an exceptionally strong flame that agrees within approx. 1% of recent 2-D numerically simulations. Finally, we continue advocating the FS approach as more direct and fundamental, for assessing idealized scramjet flameholding potentials, than measurements of unstrained laminar burning velocity or blowout in a Perfectly Stirred Reactor.

Pellett, Gerald L.↗

Nitric Oxide and Oxygen Air-Contamination Effects on Extinction Limits of Non-Premixed Hydrocarbon-Air Flames for a HIFiRE Scramjet

Unique nitric oxide (NO) and oxygen air-contamination effects on the extinction Flame Strength (FS) of non-premixed hydrocarbon (HC) vs. air flames are characterized for 7 gaseous HCs, using a new idealized 9.3 mm straight-tube Opposed Jet Burner (OJB) at 1 atm. FS represents a laminar strain-induced extinction limit based on cross-section-average air jet velocity, Uair, that sustains combustion of a counter jet of gaseous fuel just before extinction. Besides ethane, propane, butane, and propylene, the HCs include ethylene, methane, and a 64 mole-% ethylene / 36 % methane mixture, the writer s previously recommended gaseous surrogate fuel for HIFiRE scramjet tests. The HC vs. clean air part of the work is an extension of a May 2008 JANNAF paper that characterized surrogates for the HIFiRE project that should mimic the flameholding of reformed (thermally- or catalytically-cracked) endothermic JP-like fuels. The new FS data for 7 HCs vs. clean air are thus consolidated with the previously validated data, normalized to absolute (local) axial-input strain rates, and co-plotted on a dual kinetically dominated reactivity scale. Excellent agreement with the prior data is obtained for all 7 fuels. Detailed comparisons are also made with recently published (Univ. Va) numerical results for ethylene extinction. A 2009-revised ethylene kinetic model (Univ. Southern Cal) led to predicted limits within approx. 5 % (compared to 45 %, earlier) of this writer s 2008 (and present) ethylene FSs, and also with recent independent data (Univ. Va) obtained on a new OJB system. These +/- 5 % agreements, and a hoped-for "near-identically-performing" reduced kinetics model, would greatly enhance the capability for accurate numerical simulations of surrogate HC flameholding in scramjets. The measured air-contamination effects on normalized FS extinction limits are projected to assess ongoing Arc-Heater-induced "facility test effects" of NO production (e.g., 3 mole-%) and resultant oxygen depletion (from 21 to 19.5 %), for testing the "64/36" surrogate fuel in Langley s Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility for HIFiRE engine designs. The FS results show a generally small (< 4 %) "nitric oxide enhancement" effect, relative to clean air, for up to 3 % NO (freestream Mach number up to 7 in Arc Jet testing). However, a progressively large "oxygendeficiency weakening" effect develops. For 3 % NO, a net weakening of 26 % in FS is derived for the "64/36" fuel vs. air. The corresponding net weakening for pure ethylene is 20 %. A number of practical recommendations regarding facility test effects are offered.

Pellett, Gerald L.↗