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At least 793 records · Page 44

Flat-histogram extrapolation as a useful tool in the age of big data

In this work, we review recent work by the authors to revisit the concept of extrapolating thermodynamic properties of classical systems using statistical mechanical principles. Specifically, we discuss how the combination of these principles with biased sampling techniques enables the prediction of free energy landscapes and other detailed information, such as structural properties, of the system in question. Remarkably accurate estimates of physical properties across a broad range of conditions have been achieved using this approach, greatly reducing the number of simulations needed to explore a given system's behaviour. While approximate, these extrapolations significantly amplify the amount of reasonably accurate information that can be extracted from simulations enabling a small set of them to feed data-intensive regression algorithms such as neural networks. Thus, this extrapolation methodology represents a useful tool for performing tasks such as high-throughput screening of physical properties, optimising force field parameters, exploring equilibrium phase behaviour, and enabling theory-guided data science for these systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

AIMSim : An accessible cheminformatics platform for similarity operations on chemicals datasets

The recent advances in deep learning, generative modeling, and statistical learning have ushered in a renewed interest in traditional cheminformatics tools and methods. Quantifying molecular similarity is essential in molecular generative modeling, exploratory molecular synthesis campaigns, and drug-discovery applications to assess how new molecules differ from existing ones. Further, most tools target advanced users and lack general implementations accessible to the larger community. In this work, we introduce Artificial Intelligence Molecular Similarity (AIMSim), an accessible cheminformatics platform for performing similarity operations on collections of molecules called molecular datasets. AIMSim provides a unified platform to perform similarity-based tasks on molecular datasets, such as diversity quantification, outlier and novelty analysis, clustering, dimensionality reduction, and inter-molecular comparisons. AIMSim implements all major binary similarity metrics and molecular fingerprints and is provided as a Python package that includes support for command-line use as well as a Graphical User Interface for code-free utilization with fully interactive plots.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

EI_MS_ML

The unambiguous identification of compounds from their electron ionization mass (EI-MS) spectra remains a significant unsolved problem in the field of metabolomics and analytical chemistry as a whole. Typically EI-MS spectra are compared using various mathematical operations that convert the spectral similarity or differences into a distance-like metric that roughly approximates the similarity of any two spectra. A commonly used metric for this is the cosine similarity metric which has values close to one for very similar spectra and a value of zero for very dissimilar spectra; however, no metric is perfect. Due to the prevalence of structurally-similar compounds such as isomers and the prevalence of certain fragmentation patterns across structurally-dissimilar compounds, the unambiguous assignment of EI-MS spectra compounds remains difficult. Frequently, querying an observed EI-MS spectrum against a large database such as the NIST17 library yields multiple possible assignments requiring the end user to distinguish between multiple high scoring hits, or multiple low scoring hits while keeping in mind that the correct hit may not be in the database at all. Although techniques such as orthogonal information from techniques such as chromatography can greatly aid in unambiguous assignment, this also requires more complicated experimental designs and access to more complicated analytical instrumentation. Substructures can be trivially detected and represented as strings using a previously published technique called node coloring from a known chemical structure. However, for experimentally-derived EI-MS spectra this information must be derived from the spectra itself (i.e., because we do not know what compound it represents). To achieve this, the software uses techniques from the field of machine learning and a large training dataset of EI-MS spectra corresponding to known structures annotated with substructure strings, to build models that can predict the presence of a given chemical substructure from an EI-MS spectrum directly.If these predictions are of high-quality (i.e., are unlikely to be false positives), the presence of one or more predicted substructures can be used to constrain the number of possible hits for a query spectrum. Mathematically, this restriction could be expressed in many forms, but the most straight-forward implementation is to weight the cosine similarity of a query spectrum and a plausible database match with a Tanimoto-like coefficient based on the ratio of the number of substructures predicted to the number of substructures present in the potential database hit. Determining which combination of models best reduces assignment ambiguity will be achieved using a combination of manual curation and optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms. This software will perform all the steps necessary to construct said models from a training dataset and evaluate them using a holdout dataset. Various statistical analyses can be performed to determine if this approach does decrease assignment ambiguity. For example, if this approach works, on average, the rank-order of the correct assignment for the holdout set of EI-MS spectra should decrease and the weighted cosine similarities for most of the possible matches in the database should be better than the unweighted cosine similarities. Furthermore, this same pipeline can be used on real experimental data to generate less ambiguous assignments.

Mitchell, Joshua↗

Understanding and improving anode performance in an alkaline membrane electrolyzer using statistical design of experiments

The behavior of the oxygen-evolving positive electrode (i.e. anode) in the anion exchange membrane water electrolyzer (AEMEL) is complex and influenced by several factors. Very few studies have been performed to understand oxygen evolution reaction (OER) behavior by optimizing the individual factors that influence performance. Here, this study highlights the effects of catalyst loading, catalyst selection, porous transport layer (PTL) type and conductive additive content. The influence of each factor is elucidated through a design of experiments (DoE) approach with a full statistical analysis. Electrochemical data, alongside Pareto charts, parametric trends and their mutual interactions are discussed. This DoE approach is also helpful in making useful predictions and discovering new combinations to be tested. The end result was a high-performance AEMEL able to operate at a current density of 1.0 A/cm 2 at 1.80 V with IrOx OER and PtNi hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) catalysts using 0.3 M KOH fed to the anode. Even lower operating voltage was observed with PbRuOx catalyst at the anode, 1.64 V @ 1.0 A/cm 2 , though the cell decay rate was higher. Lastly, a IrOx/PtNi cell was stably operated continuously for 30 days (720 h) at 1.0 A/cm 2 . This study can serve as a guide for optimal electrode design with insights into component-performance compromises, which can aid in making design choices and performing techno-economic analyses.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential for specialized applications in segmented inverse beta decay (IBD) neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Although this method may easily extend to 3D scalar fields, our focus here is on 2D real-valued fields as it directly applies to directionality. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗

Multi-fidelity information fusion with concatenated neural networks

Recently, computational modeling has shifted towards the use of statistical inference, deep learning, and other data-driven modeling frameworks. Although this shift in modeling holds promise in many applications like design optimization and real-time control by lowering the computational burden, training deep learning models needs a huge amount of data. This big data is not always available for scientific problems and leads to poorly generalizable data-driven models. This gap can be furnished by leveraging information from physics-based models. Exploiting prior knowledge about the problem at hand, this study puts forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) approach to build more tailored, effective, and efficient surrogate models. For our analysis, without losing its generalizability and modularity, we focus on the development of predictive models for laminar and turbulent boundary layer flows. In particular, we combine the self-similarity solution and power-law velocity profile (low-fidelity models) with the noisy data obtained either from experiments or computational fluid dynamics simulations (high-fidelity models) through a concatenated neural network. We illustrate how the knowledge from these simplified models results in reducing uncertainties associated with deep learning models applied to boundary layer flow prediction problems. The proposed multi-fidelity information fusion framework produces physically consistent models that attempt to achieve better generalization than data-driven models obtained purely based on data. While we demonstrate our framework for a problem relevant to fluid mechanics, its workflow and principles can be adopted for many scientific problems where empirical, analytical, or simplified models are prevalent. In line with grand demands in novel PGML principles, this work builds a bridge between extensive physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms and paves the way for using hybrid physics and machine learning modeling approaches for next-generation digital twin technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling the dynamics of phospholipids in the fluid phase of liposomes

Here, we present the derivation of a new model to describe neutron spin echo spectroscopy and quasi-elastic neutron scattering data on liposomes. We compare the new model with existing approaches and benchmark it with experimental data. The analysis indicates the importance of including all major contributions in the modeling of the intermediate scattering function. Simultaneous analysis of the experimental data on lipids with full contrast and tail contrast matched samples reveals highly confined lipid tail motion. A comparison of their dynamics demonstrates the statistical independence of tail-motion and height–height correlation of the membrane. A more detailed analysis indicates that the lipid tail relaxation is confined to a potential with cylindrical symmetry, in addition to the undulation and diffusive motion of the liposome. Despite substantial differences in the chemistry of the fatty acid tails, the observation indicates a universal behavior. The analysis of partially deuterated systems confirms the strong contribution of the lipid tail to the intermediate scattering function. Within the time range from 5 to 100 ns, the intermediate scattering function can be described by the height–height correlation function. The existence of the fast-localized tail motion and the contribution of slow translational diffusion of liposomes determine the intermediate scattering function for t < 5 ns and t > 100 ns, respectively. Taking into account the limited time window lowers the bending moduli by a factor of 1.3 (DOPC) to 2 (DMPC) compared to the full range.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structure of chalcogen overlayers on Au(111): Density functional theory and lattice-gas modeling

Ordering of different chalcogens, S, Se, and Te, on Au(111) exhibit broad similarities but also some distinct features, which must reflect subtle differences in relative values of the long-range pair and many-body lateral interactions between adatoms. We develop lattice-gas (LG) models within a cluster expansion framework, which includes about 50 interaction parameters. These LG models are developed based on density functional theory (DFT) analysis of the energetics of key adlayer configurations in combination with the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of the LG models to identify statistically relevant adlayer motifs, i.e., model development is based entirely on theoretical considerations. The MC simulation guides additional DFT analysis and iterative model refinement. Given their complexity, development of optimal models is also aided by strategies from supervised machine learning. The model for S successfully captures ordering motifs over a broader range of coverage than achieved by previous models, and models for Se and Te capture the features of ordering, which are distinct from those for S. More specifically, the modeling for all three chalcogens successfully explains the linear adatom rows (also subtle differences between them) observed at low coverages of ~0.1 monolayer. The model for S also leads to a new possible explanation for the experimentally observed phase with a (5 × 5)-type low energy electron diffraction (LEED) pattern at 0.28 ML and to predictions for LEED patterns that would be observed with Se and Te at this coverage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Shock state distributions in porous tantalum and characterization with multipoint velocimetry

Heterogenous materials under shock compression can be expected to reach different shock states throughout the material according to local differences in microstructure and the history of wave propagation. Here, in this work, a compact, multiple-beam focusing optic assembly is used with high-speed velocimetry to interrogate the shock response of porous tantalum films prepared through thermal-spray deposition. The distribution of particle velocities across a shocked interface is compared to results obtained using a set of defocused interferometric beams that sampled the shock response over larger areas. The two methods produced velocity distributions along the shock plateau with the same mean, while a larger variance was measured with narrower beams. The finding was replicated using three-dimensional, mesoscopically resolved hydrodynamics simulations of solid tantalum with a pore structure mimicking statistical attributes of the material and accounting for radial divergence of the beams, with agreement across several impact velocities. Accounting for pore morphology in the simulations was found to be necessary for replicating the rise time of the shock plateau. The validated simulations were then used to show that while the average velocity along the shock plateau could be determined accurately with only a few interferometric beams, accurately determining the width of the velocity distribution, which here was approximately Gaussian, required a beam dimension much smaller than the spatial correlation lengthscale of the velocity field, here by a factor of ∼30×, with implications for the study of other porous materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nanoscale Spatial Distribution of Supported Nanoparticles Controls Activity and Stability in Powder Catalysts for CO Oxidation and Photocatalytic H 2 Evolution

Here we discuss, supported metal nanoparticles are essential components of high-performing catalysts, and their structures are intensely researched. In comparison, nanoparticle spatial distribution in powder catalysts is conventionally not quantified, and the influence of this collective property on catalyst performance remains poorly investigated. Here, we demonstrate a general colloidal self-assembly method to control uniformity of nanoparticle spatial distribution on common industrial powder supports. We quantify distributions on the nanoscale using image statistics and show that the type of nanospatial distribution determines not only the stability, but also the activity of heterogeneous catalysts. Widely investigated systems (Au–TiO 2 for CO oxidation thermocatalysis and Pd–TiO 2 for H 2 evolution photocatalysis) were used to showcase the universal importance of nanoparticle spatial organization. Spatially and temporally resolved microkinetic modeling revealed that nonuniformly distributed Au nanoparticles suffer from local depletion of surface oxygen, and therefore lower CO oxidation activity, as compared to uniformly distributed nanoparticles. Nanoparticle spatial distribution also determines the stability of Pd–TiO 2 photocatalysts, because nonuniformly distributed nanoparticles sinter while uniformly distributed nanoparticles do not. This work introduces new tools to evaluate and understand catalyst collective (ensemble) properties in powder catalysts, which thereby pave the way to more active and stable heterogeneous catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulations of activities, solubilities, transport properties, and nucleation rates for aqueous electrolyte solutions

This article reviews recent molecular simulation studies of "collective" properties of aqueous electrolyte solutions, specifically free energies and activity coefficients, solubilities, nucleation rates of crystals, and transport coefficients. These are important fundamental properties for biology and geoscience, but also relevant for many technological applications. Their determination from molecular-scale calculations requires large systems and long sampling times, as well as specialized sampling algorithms. As a result, such properties have not typically been taken into account during optimization of force field parameters; thus, they provide stringent tests for the transferability and range of applicability of proposed molecular models. There has been significant progress on simulation algorithms to enable the determination of these properties with good statistical uncertainties. Comparisons of simulation results to experimental data reveal deficiencies shared by many commonly used models. Moreover, there appear to exist specific tradeoffs within existing modeling frameworks, so that good prediction of some properties is linked to poor prediction for specific other properties. For example, non-polarizable models that utilize full charges on the ions generally fail to predict accurately both activity coefficients and solubilities; the concentration dependence of viscosity and diffusivity for these models is also incorrect. Scaled-charge models improve the dynamic properties and could also perform well for solubilities, but fail in the prediction of nucleation rates. Even models that do well at room temperature for some properties generally fail to capture their experimentally observed temperature dependence. Finally, the main conclusion from the present review is that qualitatively new physics will need to be incorporated in future models of electrolyte solutions to allow description of collective properties for broad ranges of concentrations, temperatures, and solvent conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crash Risks Evaluation of Urban Expressways: A Case Study in Shanghai

We report that proactive traffic safety management systems can reduce crashes by identifying crash precursors, evaluating real-time crash risks, and implementing suitable interventions. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to propose a reliable crash risk evaluation model that takes real-time traffic flow data as input. Previous studies have primarily focused on real-time crash prediction using some statistical or machine-learning methods. However, further quantitative evaluation and classification of crash risks have been ignored. In this study, we conduct a systematic crash risk evaluation workflow, including crash risk prediction, crash risk quantification, and crash risk classification. Specifically, the crash risk prediction using an extended logit model is proposed, from which CAS, CSD, UAS, DAS, DTV are identified to be contributing factors of crash risks. Then a crash risk quantification model based on the parameter evaluation of the extended logit model is developed. The crash risks of urban expressways and their spatial-temporal evolution trends are quantified. Finally, the crash risks are classified into high crash risk level, moderate crash risk level, and low crash risk level by the k-means cluster algorithm. Then the threshold boundaries of different crash risk levels are determined. The research results provide a proactive guidance for traffic safety management of urban expressways.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Single-Particle Studies Reveal a Nanoscale Mechanism for Elastic, Bright, and Repeatable ZnS:Mn Mechanoluminescence in a Low-Pressure Regime

Mechanoluminescent materials, which emit light in response to elastic deformation, are demanded for use as in situ stress sensors. ZnS doped with Mn is known to exhibit one of the lowest reported thresholds for appearance of mechanoluminescence, with repeatable light emission under contact pressure <10 MPa. Here, the physical basis for such behavior remains as yet unclear. Here, reliable microscopic detection of mechanoluminescence of single ZnS:Mn microparticles, in combination with nanoscale structural characterization, provides evidence that the mechanoluminescent properties of these particles result from interplay between a non-centrosymmetric crystal lattice and its defects, viz., dislocations and stacking faults. Statistical analysis of the distributions of mechanoluminescence energy release trajectories reveals two distinct mechanisms of excitation: one attributable to a piezo-phototronic effect and the other due to dislocation motion. At pressures below 8.1 MPa, both mechanisms contribute to mechanoluminescent output, with a dominant contribution from the piezo-phototronic mechanism. In contrast, above 8.1 MPa, dislocation motion is the primary excitation source. For the piezo-phototronic mechanism, we propose a specific model that accounts for elastic ZnS:Mn mechanoluminescence under very low pressure. The charged interfaces in stacking faults lead to the presence of filled traps, which otherwise would be empty in the absence of the built-in electric field. Upon application of external stress, local enhancement of the piezoelectric field at the stacking faults’ interfaces facilitates release of the trapped carriers and subsequent luminescence. This field enhancement explains how <10 MPa pressure produces thousands of photons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Statistical Design of Experiments Enables Rapid Exploration of Perfluorobutane Sulfonate Degradation

The phase-out of long-chain PFAS has led to the proliferation of highly recalcitrant short-chain analogs, and mineralization technologies for these short-chain PFAS are needed to mitigate their deleterious effects on environmental and human health. In this study, we utilize a statistical design of experiments, specifically, response surface methodology, to rapidly evaluate the electrochemical degradation of the short-chain PFAS, perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS). We evaluate the impacts of the three primary electrochemical parameters (concentration of PFBS, concentration of supporting electrolyte, and applied current) over multiple orders of magnitude on the three primary reaction outcomes of electrochemical PFBS degradation (incomplete PFBS decomposition, complete PFBS mineralization as fluorine, and anodic energy consumption). Our results correspond with literature and clearly identify the well-known tradeoff between energy consumption and complete mineralization. Intriguingly, partial PFBS decomposition and energy consumption demonstrate nonlinear dependencies in the current/supporting electrolyte concentration space and the current/PFBS concentration space, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of the response surface methodology model to efficiently interrogate a large parameter space, identifying both common results and less-obvious interactions between electrochemical parameters and their influences on reaction outcomes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine Learning Models for Binary Molecular Classification using VUV Absorption Spectra

Machine learning methods were combined with differential absorption spectroscopy measurements in the vacuum-ultraviolet region (5.167 – 9.920 eV) in order to develop predictive capabilities for inferring molecular structure from the spectra. Several types of species were analyzed and, for modeling purposes, were defined using a single classification: (1) alkane, (2) conjugation with oxygen (e.g. diacetyl, ethyl vinyl ether), (3) non-conjugated alkene (e.g. 1-butene, 1,4-cyclohexadiene), (4) oxygen-containing (e.g. 1-butanol, tetrahydrofuran), or (5) cyclic (e.g. cyclopentane, cyclohexanone). The latter molecular classification excluded cyclic ethers. Several modeling methods were employed in the analysis of 102 absorption spectra, 24 of which were measured for the first time. The primary objective was to identify suitable methods that enable accurate predictions of molecular structure classifications with minimized statistical uncertainties. Rather than identifying a single, unifying method to reliably predict molecular structure contributions to VUV absorption spectra, coordination is required among a particular method, the type of molecular structure detail (e.g. conjugation), and absorption region of interest. The latter is accomplished using a binning approach, wherein absorption regions of ~0.5 eV were utilized rather than the entire ~4.8 eV range. Photon energy binning enabled analysis of region-specific predictions of accuracy, precision, and recall. The outcome from the binning approach is that, rather than utilizing the entire spectrum, optimal determination of molecular structure using machine learning methods depends on the absorption region. Furthermore, the present work provides separate machine learning models for each molecular classification, which enables the identification of multi-functional species relevant to atmospheric chemistry and combustion chemistry, where isomer-resolved speciation is critical to understanding complex reaction networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The influence of environmental microseismicity on detection and interpretation of small-magnitude events in a polar glacier setting

Glacial environments exhibit temporally variable microseismicity. To investigate how microseismicity influences event detection, we implement two noise-adaptive digital power detectors to process seismic data from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We add scaled icequake waveforms to the original data stream, run detectors on the hybrid data stream to estimate reliable detection magnitudes and compare analytical magnitudes predicted from an ice crack source model. We find that detection capability is influenced by environmental microseismicity for seismic events with source size comparable to thermal penetration depths. When event counts and minimum detectable event sizes change in the same direction (i.e. increase in event counts and minimum detectable event size), we interpret measured seismicity changes as ‘true’ seismicity changes rather than as changes in detection. Generally, one detector (two degree of freedom (2dof)) outperforms the other: it identifies more events, a more prominent summertime diurnal signal and maintains a higher detection capability. We conclude that real physical processes are responsible for the summertime diurnal inter-detector difference. One detector (3dof) identifies this process as environmental microseismicity; the other detector (2dof) identifies it as elevated waveform activity. Our analysis provides an example for minimizing detection biases and estimating source sizes when interpreting temporal seismicity patterns to better infer glacial seismogenic processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stabilization of Dinuclear Rhodium and Iridium Clusters on Layered Titanate and Niobate Supports

Atomically dispersed organometallic clusters can provide well-defined nuclearity of active sites for both fundamental studies as well as new regimes of activity and selectivity in chemical transformations. More recently, dinuclear clusters adsorbed onto solid surfaces have shown novel catalytic properties resulting from the synergistic effect of two metal centers to anchor different reactant species. Difficulty in synthesizing, stabilizing, and characterizing isolated atoms and clusters without agglomeration challenges allocating catalytic performance to atomic structure. Here, we explore the stability of dinuclear rhodium and iridium clusters adsorbed onto layered titanate and niobate supports using molecular precursors. Both systems maintain their nuclearity when Statistical analysis of HAADF-STEM images revealed that rhodium and iridium dimers had mean cluster-to-cluster distances very similar to what is expected from a random distribution of atoms over a large area, indicating that they are dispersed without aggregation. The stability of dinuclear rhodium clusters supported on titanate nanosheets was also investigated by X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS), DRIFTS, and first-principles calculations. Both X-ray absorption spectroscopy and HAADF-STEM simulations, guided by density functional theory (DFT)-optimized structure models, suggested that rhodium dimers adsorb onto the nanosheets in an end-on binding mode that is stable up to 100 degrees C under reducing conditions. Finally, this study highlights that crystalline nanosheets derived from layered metal oxides can be used as model supports to selectively stabilize dinuclear clusters, which could have implications for heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine-Learning-Assisted Synthesis of Polar Racemates

Racemates have recently received attention as nonlinear optical and piezoelectric materials. We report a machine-learning-assisted composition space approach was applied to synthesize the missing M = Ti, Zr members of the Δ,Λ-[Cu(bpy) 2 (H 2 O)] 2 [MF 6 ] 2·3 H 2 O (M = Ti, Zr, Hf; bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine) family (space group: Pna2 1 ). In each (CuO, MO 2 )/bpy/HF(aq) (M = Ti, Zr, Hf) system, the polar noncentrosymmetric racemate (M-NCS) forms in competition with a centrosymmetric one-dimensional chain compound (M-CS) based on alternating Cu(bpy)(H 2 O) 2 2+ and MF 6 2– basic building units (space groups: Ti-CS (Pnma), Zr-CS (P1̅), Hf-CS (P2/n)). Machine learning models were trained on reaction parameters to gain unbiased insight into the underlying statistical trends in each composition space. A human-interpretable decision tree shows that phase selection is driven primarily by the bpy:CuO molar ratio for reactions containing Zr or Hf, and predicts that formation of the Ti-NCS compound requires that the amount of HF present be decreased to raise the pH, which we verified experimentally. Predictive leave-one-metal-out (LOO) models further confirm that behavior in the Ti system is distinct from that of the Zr and Hf systems. The chemical origin of this distinction was probed via fluorine K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Pre-edge features in the F1s X-ray absorption spectra reveal the strong ligand-to-metal π bonding between Ti(3d – t 2g ) and F(2p) states that distinguishes the TiF 6 2– anion from the ZrF 6 2– and HfF 6 2– anions.

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