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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

A review of the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere relationship

The papers published by Labitzke (1987) and by Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) indicated that the separation of Winter stratospheric data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) led to a largely improved relationship with the 11 year solar cycle. Since then, this possible relationship has been studied and extended from the surface to the lower thermosphere and its extension to other seasons is in progress. An opportunity is provided to review the state of the problem and to attempt to give a general view of the experimentally observed responses of the atmosphere to solar activity, when considering the phases of the Q.B.O. After a brief recall of the relationship discovered in the winter stratosphere, its extension downwards, upwards and to the other seasons are successively reviewed. The existing models are not adequate right now to represent the solar influence as they only take into account the change in UV flux, but before being able to use the large scale dynamics in a coupled radiative photochemical model, one needs to understand the mechanism able to explain the forcing from the lower atmosphere or the surface which could be induced by a change in solar activity.

Chanin, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Prediction of three sigma maximum dispersed density for aerospace applications

Free molecular heating (FMH) is caused by the transfer of energy during collisions between the upper atmosphere molecules and a space vehicle. The dispersed free molecular heating on a surface is an important constraint for space vehicle thermal analyses since it can be a significant source of heating. To reduce FMH to a spacecraft, the parking orbit is often designed to a higher altitude at the expense of payload capability. Dispersed FMH is a function of both space vehicle velocity and atmospheric density, however, the space vehicle velocity variations are insignificant when compared to the atmospheric density variations. The density of the upper atmosphere molecules is a function of altitude, but also varies with other environmental factors, such as solar activity, geomagnetic activity, location, and time. A method has been developed to predict three sigma maximum dispersed density for up to 15 years into the future. This method uses a state-of-the-art atmospheric density code, MSIS 86, along with 50 years of solar data, NASA and NOAA solar activity predictions for the next 15 years, and an Aerospace Corporation correlation to account for density code inaccuracies to generate dispersed maximum density ratios denoted as 'K-factors'. The calculated K-factors can be used on a mission unique basis to calculate dispersed density, and hence dispersed free molecular heating rates. These more accurate K-factors can allow lower parking orbit altitudes, resulting in increased payload capability.

Charles, Terri L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A consideration of atomic oxygen interactions with space station

A computer model is developed in order to calculate fluence for a generalized spacecraft in orbital flight based on mass spectrometer and incoherent scatter (MSIS) measurements of ambient density. The calculations are used to identify criteria for the selection of materials for the construction of an LEO Space Station. The model is generalized such that the surfaces for study can be oriented in any direction with respect to: a body coordinate system fixed to the spacecraft (E surfaces); and a solar inertial coordinate system. A parametric study was performed in order to evaluate the effects of altitude, inclination, and solar activity on atomic oxygen fluence. Values are obtained for samples of Mylar, Kevlar, Kapton, Tedlar, Teflon and sulfone, as well as for some ethylene polymers. The range of values for material reactivities is from 360 microns for ram-facing surfaces to 200 microns for solar power surfaces during each cycle of solar activity. The possibility of improving reactivity by employing certain chemical coatings is also discussed.

Leger, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Timing of solar cycles by rigid internal rotations

The so-called 11-year cycle of solar activity is really more complex and contains many periods of greatly different lengths. Periods as long as 178 years and as short as 3.1 years are predicted by a theory based on beats between rigidly rotating, inertially oscillating g-modes inside the sun. Most of the beat periods are then confirmed to about 1 percent accuracy in sunspot observations. Since the agreement is of high statistical significance, one can conclude that approximate alignment of major solar oscillation modes contributes to high solar activity. The theory receives further support when tested against an independent class of observations - the large-scale magnetic sector structure. Predicted rotation rates of at least four solar oscillation modes are detected in the sector data with discrepancies all less than 0.3 percent. As a by-product of these successful fits to observation, the mean rotation of the entire solar mass becomes known. Its rotation frequency is 4.49 by 10 to the -7th power Hz, which is a sidereal period of 25.8 days. Magnetic fields have played no role in calculating the length of any of these solar cycles.

Wolff, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Methods to Improve the Maintenance of the Earth Catalog of Satellites During Severe Solar Storms

The objective of this thesis is to investigate methods to improve the ability to maintain the inventory of orbital elements of Earth satellites during periods of atmospheric disturbance brought on by severe solar activity. Existing techniques do not account for such atmospheric dynamics, resulting in tracking errors of several seconds in predicted crossing time. Two techniques are examined to reduce of these tracking errors. First, density predicted from various atmospheric models is fit to the orbital decay rate for a number of satellites. An orbital decay model is then developed that could be used to reduce tracking errors by accounting for atmospheric changes. The second approach utilizes a Kalman filter to estimate the orbital decay rate of a satellite after every observation. The new information is used to predict the next observation. Results from the first approach demonstrated the feasibility of building an orbital decay model based on predicted atmospheric density. Correlation of atmospheric density to orbital decay was as high as 0.88. However, it is clear that contemporary: atmospheric models need further improvement in modeling density perturbations polar region brought on by solar activity. The second approach resulted in a dramatic reduction in tracking errors for certain satellites during severe solar Storms. For example, in the limited cases studied, the reduction in tracking errors ranged from 79 to 25 percent.

Wilkin, Paul G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

The sun is observed to be a torsional oscillator with a period of 11 years

Twelve years of full-disk Mount Wilson velocity data have been analyzed to study horizontal east-west motions. A torsional wave pattern with alternating latitude zones of slow and fast rotation is found, after subtracting a differentially rotating frame. Amplitudes of the flow pattern average about 3 m/s. It requires about 22 years for zones to drift from the poles, where they originate, to the equator, where they disappear. The pattern is symmetric about the equator. The zones representing the next solar cycle (No. 22) are seen now at high solar latitudes. Solar active regions are formed in a latitude strip centered on the boundary of fast- and slow-velocity zones. This pattern evidently represents a deep-seated circulation pattern and is the first evidence of the association of mass motions with large-scale characteristics of the solar activity cycle.

Howard, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling and Observations of OH UV-emissions in the Lunar Exosphere

The discovery of water on the Moon has led to several questions about lunar water’s origin, evolution, and total amount. One of the technique used to better understand the origin of the water, notably by the NASA LADEE/UVS instrument, is the observation of OH fluorescence. However, to better interpret the data, it is important to understand the processes leading to that emission. We present an application of the Aeroplanets model to the simulation of the OH emissions from the solar fluorescence and the dissociation of H2O from photon and electron impact in function of the solar activity. We applied the model to several cases of Lunar exosphere affected or not by meteor impacts that are known to release water in the exosphere.We show how we can retrieve the amount of OH and H2O on the line of sight of the different instruments and how the solar activity can affect that retrieval.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

solar longitude↗
NASA NTRS1981

Latitudinal anisotropy of the solar far ultraviolet flux - Effect on the Lyman alpha sky background

An estimate is given for the anisotropy of the solar full disk flux in the far ultraviolet, as it would be observed for lines of sight within and above the ecliptic plane through the predominant influence of plages at low heliocentric latitudes. The flux anisotropy for Lyman alpha, at a level of solar activity with a sunspot number of roughly 160, is approximately 0.88 for the integrated flux over the Lyman alpha profile and 0.83 for the flux at line center. The effect of this Lyman alpha flux anisotropy on the Lyman alpha sky background intensity, resonantly backscattered from the local interstellar medium that is streaming through the solar system, is examined. It is concluded that the solar Lyman alpha anisotropy should be included in models of the interplanetary background during periods of moderate to high solar activity.

Cook, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Frequency spectra of short-period variations of cosmic ray

Frequency spectra for different periods of solar activity were calculated by 5-minutes data of a neutron super-monitor, (altitude 3340 m, cutoff rigidity is 6, 7 GV, counting rate is about 4.5.10 per hour). It was shown that shifting of the spectrum power from low-frequency range to high-frequency range takes place from minimum to maximum of the solar activity. It was reliably distinguished the peak with 160-minutes period coincided with the period of the Sun's atmosphere oscillation and some types of geomagnetic pulsation by the method of accumulation of the frequency spectra. It was conducted the comparison of cosmic ray spectra with spectra of geomagnetic field for the same point of the registration and at the same period.

Antonova, V. P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Simulations of the gross solar magnetic field during sunspot cycle 21

Regarding new bipolar magnetic regions as sources of flux, the evolution of the radial component of the solar photospheric magnetic field during 1976-1984 has been simulated with a spatial resolution of about 34,000 km, and the corresponding evolution of its absolute value averaged over the visible disk is derived. For nominal values of the transport parameters, this simulated gross field is in close, though imperfect, agreement with the observed gross field and its associated indices of solar activity. By analyzing the response of the simulated gross field to variations in the transport parameters and the source properties, it is found that the simulated field originates in newly erupted bipolar regions. The lifetimes of these regions are almost always less than three mo. Consequently, the strength of the simulated gross field is a measure of the current level of solar activity, and any recurrent patterns with lifetimes in excess of six mo must reflect the continuing eruption of new flux at 'active longitudes' rather than the persistence of old flux in long-lived magnetic structures.

Sheeley, Neil R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

New results on the site of initiation of Cornal Mass Ejections (CMES), and an interpretation of observation of their interaction with streamers

In this paper it is shown that in some months of the phase of minimum solar activity 1985-1987 as many as (80-90)% of a total number of CMEs occur near belts of streamers with neutral line (NL), and only (10-20)% of them appear near belts of streamers without NL. (Streamers without NL separate regions in the corona with the same direction of radial fields of magnetic tubes originating from adjacent coronal holes). With increasing solar activity, the center of gravity of the number of emerging CMEs is shifting toward belts of steamers without NL and reaches over 80% of their total number in some months by the end of 1989. The CME position angle (PA) coincides, on average, with the angle of the portion of NL which straddles the CME. It is quite possible that this condition is satisfied not in the average but rigorously for each CME. The streamer observed on the limb does not disrupt if the CME in transit either only slightly overlaps with the streamer or lies at all outside it. If in the limb plane under consideration the steamer lies inside the CME, then it disrupts after CME passage.

Eselevich, V. G.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Observed variability in the Fraunhofer line spectrum of solar flux, 1975 - 1980

Over the five years double-pass spectrometer observations of the Sun-as-a-star revealed significant changes in line intensities. The photospheric component weakened linearly with time 0 to 2.3%. From a lack of correlation between these line weakenings and solar activity indicators like sunspots and plage, a global variation of surface properties is inferred. Model-atmosphere analysis suggests a slight reduction in the lower-photospheric temperature gradient corresponding to a 15% increase in the mixing length within the granulation layer. Chromospheric lines such as Ca II H and K, Ca II 8543 and the CN band head weaken synchronously with solar activity. Thus, the behavior of photospheric and chromospheric lines is markedly different, with the possibility of secular change for the former.

Livingston, W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System (ProSEDS)

This Annual Report covers the following main topics: 1) Updated Reference Mission. The reference ProSEDS (Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System) mission is evaluated for an updated launch date in the Summer of 2002 and for the new 80-s current operating cycle. Simulations are run for nominal solar activity condition at the time of launch and for extreme conditions of dynamic forcing. Simulations include the dynamics of the system, the electrodynamics of the bare tether, the neutral atmosphere and the thermal response of the tether. 2) Evaluation of power delivered by the tether system. The power delivered by the tethered system during the battery charging mode is computed under the assumption of minimum solar activity for the new launch date. 3) Updated Deployment Control Profiles and Simulations. A number of new deployment profiles were derived based on the latest results of the deployment ground tests. The flight profile is then derived based on the friction characteristics obtained from the deployment tests of the F-1 tether. 4) Analysis/estimation of deployment flight data. A process was developed to estimate the deployment trajectory of the endmass with respect to the Delta and the final libration amplitude from the data of the deployer turn counters. This software was tested successfully during the ProSEDS mission simulation at MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) EDAC (Environments Data Analysis Center).

Lorenzini, Enrico C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Measured response of the equatorial thermospheric temperature to geomagnetic activity and solar flux changes

Fabry-Perot inteferometer determinations of thermospheric temperatures from 630.0-nm nightglow line-width measurements have been carried out for the period April-August 1983 from Arequipa, Peru (16.4-deg S, 71.5-deg W geographic; 4.4-deg S magnetic). The nightly variation of the thermospheric temperature T(n) measured on 62 nights is compared with MSIS model predictions and found to agree occasionally with the model but, on average, to exceed model predictions by about 180 K. The largest differences, 400-500 K, often occur during strongly increasing geomagnetic activity such as sudden commencements. The rapid increases in T(n) may result from energetic neutrals precipitating at low latitudes from the ring current or from energy carried to equatorial regions from high-latitude (auroral oval) heat sources by gravity waves and equatorward neutral winds.

Biondi, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The downward flux of O(+) over the nightside of Venus

We have constructed a map of the downward flux of O(+) over the nightside of Venus at high and low solar activities through a combination of modeling and analysis of Pioneer Venus ion mass spectrometer data. O(+) density profiles were obtained for almost 40 inbound or outbound segments of orbits from the first 2 years of the mission and about 40 more in the recent reentry phase of the mission. We have determined the nearly linear relationship between the 0(+) maximum density and the downward O(+) flux for several solar zenith angles and local times by constructing models of the nightside ionosphere of Venus for a range of downward ion fluxes at the upper boundaries. We find that the largest downward fluxes occur near the terminators, and the fluxes fall off sharply toward the antisolar point. Although the standard deviations in the data are large, there is a suggestion of a local maximum near 155 deg, and the location of this maximum correlates fairly well with structure in the peak electron density as a function of solar zenith angle reported for the Pioneer Venus radio occulation experiment. The average downward ion flux is inferred to be about 1.7 x 10(exp 8)/sq cm/sec over the nightside hemisphere at solar maximum and a factor of 7 less at moderately low solar activity.

Brannon, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Validation of Spacecraft Active Cavity Radiometer Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Long Term Measurement Trends Using Proxy TSI Least Squares Analyses

Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.

Lee, Robert Benjamin, III↗
NASA NTRS1973

A study of the diurnal variation in the thermosphere as derived by satellite drag

An analysis was performed on 29,574 densities derived from the drag of 10 satellites to determine simultaneously the parameters of the solar-activity effect in the thermosphere on the one hand, and the amplitude and shape of the diurnal-variation curve on the other. This paper reports on the study of the diurnal variation only. Although a considerable amount of smoothing is inherent in the drag method, it seemed useful to see whether any change could be detected in the shape of the diurnal-variation curve with height, latitude and solar activity. None was detected; the curve remains remarkably stable, symmetric, with a maximum at 14 hr 20 min L.S.T. and a minimum at 2 hr 20 min L.S.T. A systematic variation of the temperature range with height is observed when static models are used to derive it.

Jacchia, L. G.↗