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NASA NTRS2016

Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfatematter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.

Kresmer, Stefanie↗
NASA NTRS2017

MATRIX-VBS (v1.0): Implementing an Evolving Organic Aerosol Volatility in an Aerosol Microphysics Model

The gas-particle partitioning and chemical aging of semi-volatile organic aerosol are presented in a newly developed box model scheme, where its effect on the growth, composition, and mixing state of particles is examined. The volatility-basis set (VBS) framework is implemented into the aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves mass and number aerosol concentrations and in multiple mixing-state classes. The new scheme, MATRIX-VBS, has the potential to significantly advance the representation of organic aerosols in Earth system models by improving upon the conventional representation as non-volatile particulate organic matter, often also with an assumed fixed size distribution. We present results from idealized cases representing Beijing, Mexico City, a Finnish forest, and a southeastern US forest, and investigate the evolution of mass concentrations and volatility distributions for organic species across the gas and particle phases, as well as assessing their mixing state among aerosol populations. Emitted semi-volatile primary organic aerosols evaporate almost completely in the intermediate-volatility range, while they remain in the particle phase in the low-volatility range. Their volatility distribution at any point in time depends on the applied emission factors, oxidation by OH radicals, and temperature. We also compare against parallel simulations with the original scheme, which represented only the particulate and non-volatile component of the organic aerosol, examining how differently the condensed-phase organic matter is distributed across the mixing states in the model. The results demonstrate the importance of representing organic aerosol as a semi-volatile aerosol, and explicitly calculating the partitioning of organic species between the gas and particulate phases.

volatility-basis set↗
NASA NTRS2023

Dispersion and Aging of Volcanic Aerosols after the La Soufriere Eruption in April 2021

Volcanic aerosols change the atmospheric composition and thereby affect weather and climate. Aerosol dynamic processes such as nucleation, condensation, and coagulation modify the shape, size, and mass of aerosol particles, which influence their atmospheric lifetime and radiative properties. Nevertheless, most models omit these processes for ash particles. In this work, we explore the ash aerosol aging and sulfate production during the first 4 days following the 2021 La Soufrière (St. Vincent) eruption with the ICON-ART model (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with Aerosol and Reactive Trace gases). Online coupling of ICON-ART with a one-dimensional volcanic plume model calculates volcanic emission, which makes it possible to resolve the different eruption phases of the noncontinuous La Soufrière eruption. We compared our simulated aerosol distribution and composition with observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument, the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) Research Aerosol (RA) Algorithm, and the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO). We show that online coupling is essential to adequately model the emissions and plume development close to the volcano. The modeled aerosol aging is in very good agreement with observations from MISR near the emission source and with CALIOP at larger distances. Furthermore, particle aging occurs faster in the troposphere than in the stratosphere due to the availability of water vapor and OH, but a layer of coated ash appears at the plume top due to faster oxidation of SO2 and lofting by aerosol-radiation interaction. This paper gives the first direct comparison of aerosol aging in volcanic eruption plumes between simulations and observations

volcanic aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2010

Implication of the Observable Spectral Cutoff Energy Evolution in XTE J1550-564

The physical mechanisms responsible for production of the non-thermal emission in accreting black holes should be imprinted in the observational appearances of the power law tails in the X-ray spectra from these objects. Variety of spectral states observed from galactic black hole binaries by it Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) allow examination of the photon upscattering under different accretion regimes. We revisit of RXTE data collected from the black hole X-ray binary XTE J1550-564 during two periods of X-ray activity in 1998 and 2000 focusing on the behavior of the high energy cutoff of the power law part of the spectrum. For the 1998 outburst the Iran- sition from the low-hard state to the intermediate state was accompanied by a gradual decrease in the cutoff energy which then showed a sharp reversal to a clear increasing trend during the further evolution towards the very high and high-soft states. However, the 2000 outburst showed only the decreasing part of this pattern. Notably, the photon indexes corresponding to the cutoff increase for the 1998 event are much higher than the index values reached during the 2000 rise transition. We attribute this difference in the cutoff' energy behav- for to the different partial contributions of the thermal and non-thermal (bulk motion) Comptonization in photon upscattering. Namely, during the 1998 event the higher accretion rate presumably provided more cooling to the Comptonizing media and thus reducing the effectiveness of the thermal upscattering process. Under these conditions the bulk motion takes a leading role in boosting the input soft photons. Monte Carlo simulations of the The physical mechanisms responsible for production of the non-thermal emission in accreting black holes should be imprinted in the observational apperances of the power law tails in the X-ray spectra from these objects. Variety of spectral states observed from galactic black hole binaries by it Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) allow examination of the photon upscattering under different accretion regimes. We revisit of RXTE data collected from the black hole X-ray binary XTE J1550-564 during two periods of X-ray activity in 1998 and 2000 focusing on the behavior of the high energy cutoff of the power law part of the spectrum. For the 1998 outburst the Iran- sition from the low-hard state to the intermediate state was accompanied by a gradual decrease in the cutoff energy which then showed a sharp reversal to a clear increasing trend during the further evolution towards the very high and high-soft states. However, the 2000 outburst showed only the decreasing part of this pattern. Notably, the photon indexes corresponding to the cutoff increase for the 1998 event are much higher than the index values reached during the 2000 rise transition. We attribute this difference in the cutoff' energy behav- for to the different partial contributions of the thermal and non-thermal (bulk motion) Comptonization in photon upscattering. Namely, during the 1998 event the higher accretion rate presumably provided more cooling to the Comptonizing media and thus reducing the effectiveness of the thermal upscattering process. Under these conditions the bulk motion takes a leading role in boosting the input soft photons. Monte Carlo simulations of the Comptonization in a bulk motion region near an accreting black hole by Laurent & Titarchuk (2010) strongly support this scenario. strongly support this scenario

Titarchuk, Lev↗
NASA NTRS1994

An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

John, Kuruvilla↗
NASA NTRS2014

3D Radiative Transfer in Eta Carinae: Application of the SimpleX Algorithm to 3D SPH Simulations of Binary Colliding Winds

Eta Carinae is an ideal astrophysical laboratory for studying massive binary interactions and evolution, and stellar wind-wind collisions. Recent three-dimensional (3D) simulations set the stage for understanding the highly complex 3D flows in Eta Car. Observations of different broad high- and low-ionization forbidden emission lines provide an excellent tool to constrain the orientation of the system, the primary's mass-loss rate, and the ionizing flux of the hot secondary. In this work we present the first steps towards generating synthetic observations to compare with available and future HST/STIS data. We present initial results from full 3D radiative transfer simulations of the interacting winds in Eta Car. We use the SimpleX algorithm to post-process the output from 3D SPH simulations and obtain the ionization fractions of hydrogen and helium assuming three different mass-loss rates for the primary star. The resultant ionization maps of both species constrain the regions where the observed forbidden emission lines can form. Including collisional ionization is necessary to achieve a better description of the ionization states, especially in the areas shielded from the secondary's radiation. We find that reducing the primary's mass-loss rate increases the volume of ionized gas, creating larger areas where the forbidden emission lines can form. We conclude that post processing 3D SPH data with SimpleX is a viable tool to create ionization maps for Eta Car.

3D radiative transfer simulations↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of advanced combustion concepts for dry NO sub x suppression with coal-derived, gaseous fuels

The emissions performance of a rich lean combustor (developed for liquid fuels) was determined for combustion of simulated coal gases ranging in heating value from 167 to 244 Btu/scf (7.0 to 10.3 MJ/NCM). The 244 Btu/scf gas is typical of the product gas from an oxygen blown gasifier, while the 167 Btu/scf gas is similar to that from an air blown gasifier. NOx performance of the rich lean combustor did not meet program goals with the 244 Btu/scf gas because of high thermal NOx, similar to levels expected from conventional lean burning combustors. The NOx emissions are attributed to inadequate fuel air mixing in the rich stage resulting from the design of the large central fuel nozzle delivering 71% of the total gas flow. NOx yield from ammonia injected into the fuel gas decreased rapidly with increasing ammonia level, and is projected to be less than 10% at NH3 levels of 0.5% or higher. NOx generation from NH3 is significant at ammonia concentrations significantly less than 0.5%. These levels may occur depending on fuel gas cleanup system design. CO emissions, combustion efficiency, smoke and other operational performance parameters were satisfactory. A test was completed with a catalytic combustor concept with petroleum distillate fuel. Reactor stage NOx emissions were low (1.4g NOx/kg fuel). CO emissions and combustion efficiency were satisfactory. Airflow split instabilities occurred which eventually led to test termination.

Beebe, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Studies of dynamic processes related to active experiments in space plasmas

This is the final report for grant NAGw-2055, 'Studies of Dynamic Processes Related to Active Experiments in Space Plasmas', covering research performed at the University of Michigan. The grant was awarded to study: (1) theoretical and data analysis of data from the CHARGE-2 rocket experiment (1keV; 1-46 mA electron beam ejections) and the Spacelab-2 shuttle experiment (1keV; 100 mA); (2) studies of the interaction of an electron beam, emitted from an ionospheric platform, with the ambient neutral atmosphere and plasma by means of a newly developed computer simulation model, relating model predictions with CHARGE-2 observations of return currents observed during electron beam emissions; and (3) development of a self-consistent model for the charge distribution on a moving conducting tether in a magnetized plasma and for the potential structure in the plasma surrounding the tether. Our main results include: (1) the computer code developed for the interaction of electrons beams with the neutral atmosphere and plasma is able to model observed return fluxes to the CHARGE-2 sounding rocket payload; and (2) a 3-D electromagnetic and relativistic particle simulation code was developed.

Banks, Peter M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Particulate exhaust emissions from an experimental combustor

The concentration of dry particulates (carbon) in the exhaust of an experimental gas turbine combustor was measured at simulated takeoff operating conditions and correlated with the standard smoke-number measurement. Carbon was determined quantitatively from a sample collected on a fiberglass filter by converting the carbon in the smoke sample to carbon dioxide and then measuring the volume of carbon dioxide formed by gas chromatography. At a smoke of 25 (threshold of visibility of the smoke plume for large turbojets) the carbon concentration was 2.8 mg carbon/cu m exhaust gas, which is equivalent to an emission index of 0.17 g carbon/kg fuel.

Norgren, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Low NOx heavy fuel combustor concept program addendum: Low/mid heating value gaseous fuel evaluation

The combustion performance of a rich/quench/lean (RQL) combustor was evaluated when operated on low and mid heating value gaseous fuels. Two synthesized fuels were prepared having lower heating values of 10.2 MJ/cu m. (274 Btu/scf) and 6.6 MJ/cu m (176 Btu/scf). These fuels were configured to be representative of actual fuels, being composed primarily of nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. A liquid fuel air assist fuel nozzle was modified to inject both of the gaseous fuels. The RQL combustor liner was not changed from the configuration used when the liquid fuels were tested. Both gaseous fuels were tested over a range of power levels from 50 percent load to maximum rated power of the DDN Model 570-K industrial gas turbine engine. Exhaust emissions were recorded for four power level at several rich zone equivalence ratios to determine NOx sensitivity to the rich zone operating point. For the mid Btu heating value gas, ammonia was added to the fuel to simulate a fuel bound nitrogen type gaseous fuel. Results at the testing showed that for the low heating value fuel NOx emissions were all below 20 ppmc and smoke was below a 10 smoke number. For the mid heating value fuel, NOx emissions were in the 50 to 70 ppmc range with the smoke below a 10 smoke number.

Novick, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Simulation and Flight Evaluation of a Parameter Estimation Input Design Method for Hybrid-Wing-Body Aircraft

As part of an effort to improve emissions, noise, and performance of next generation aircraft, it is expected that future aircraft will make use of distributed, multi-objective control effectors in a closed-loop flight control system. Correlation challenges associated with parameter estimation will arise with this expected aircraft configuration. Research presented in this paper focuses on addressing the correlation problem with an appropriate input design technique and validating this technique through simulation and flight test of the X-48B aircraft. The X-48B aircraft is an 8.5 percent-scale hybrid wing body aircraft demonstrator designed by The Boeing Company (Chicago, Illinois, USA), built by Cranfield Aerospace Limited (Cranfield, Bedford, United Kingdom) and flight tested at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California, USA). Based on data from flight test maneuvers performed at Dryden Flight Research Center, aerodynamic parameter estimation was performed using linear regression and output error techniques. An input design technique that uses temporal separation for de-correlation of control surfaces is proposed, and simulation and flight test results are compared with the aerodynamic database. This paper will present a method to determine individual control surface aerodynamic derivatives.

Taylor, Brian R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observing System Simulations for the NASA ASCENDS Lidar CO2 Mission Concept: Substantiating Science Measurement Requirements

The NASA ASCENDS mission (Active Sensing of Carbon Emissions, Nights, Days, and Seasons) is envisioned as the next generation of dedicated, space-based CO2 observing systems, currently planned for launch in about the year 2022. Recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey, active (lidar) sensing of CO2 from space has several potentially significant advantages, in comparison to current and planned passive CO2 instruments, that promise to advance CO2 measurement capability and carbon cycle understanding into the next decade. Assessment and testing of possible lidar instrument technologies indicates that such sensors are more than feasible, however, the measurement precision and accuracy requirements remain at unprecedented levels of stringency. It is, therefore, important to quantitatively and consistently evaluate the measurement capabilities and requirements for the prospective active system in the context of advancing our knowledge of carbon flux distributions and their dependence on underlying physical processes. This amounts to establishing minimum requirements for precision, relative accuracy, spatial/temporal coverage and resolution, vertical information content, interferences, and possibly the tradeoffs among these parameters, while at the same time framing a mission that can be implemented within a constrained budget. Here, we present results of observing system simulation studies, commissioned by the ASCENDS Science Requirements Definition Team, for a range of possible mission implementation options that are intended to substantiate science measurement requirements for a laser-based CO2 space instrument.

Kawa, Stephan R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Determining structure in molecular clouds

We descibe an automatic, objective routine for analyzing the clumpy structure in a spectral line position-position-velocity data cube. The algorithm works by first contouring the data at a multiple of the rms noise of the observations, then searches for peaks of emission which locate the clumps, and then follows them down to lower intensities. No a proiri clump profile is assumed. By creating simulated data, we test the performance of the algorithm and show that a contour map most accurately depicts internal structure at a contouring interval equal to twice the rms noise of the map. Blending of clump emission leads to small errors in mass and size determinations and in severe cases can result in a number of clumps being misidentified as a single unit, flattening the measured clump mass spectrum. The algorithm is applied to two real data sets as an example of its use. The Rosette molecular cloud is a 'typical' star-forming cloud, but in the Maddalena molecular cloud high-mass star formation is completely absent. Comparison of the two clump lists generated by the algorithm show that on a one-to-one basis the clumps in the star-forming cloud have higher peak temperatures, higher average densities, and are more gravitationally bound than in the non-star-forming cloud. Collective properties of the clumps, such as temperature-size-line-width-mass relations appear very similar, however. Contrary to the initial results reported in a previous paper (Williams & Blitz 1993), we find that the current, more thoroughly tes ted analysis finds no significant difference in the clump mass spectrum of the two clouds.

Williams, Jonathan P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Simulating Exoplanet Transit and Eclipse Observations with JWST

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be a nearly ideal machine for acquiring the transmission and emission spectra of transiting exoplanets over its large wavelength range 0.7 - 28 microns. The NIRSpec, NIRCam, nTFI, and MIRI instruments will have spectroscopic capabilities that span spectral resolutions from 20 - 3000 and can cover up to 2 - 3 octaves in wavelength simultaneously. This will allow observing multiple molecular features at once, facilitating the separation of atmospheric temperature and abundance effects on spectra. Many transiting planets will also be able to be observed with both transmission and eclipse spectroscopy, providing further insights and constraints on planetary thermal structures and energy transport. Simulated JWST spectra of planets ranging from mini-Neptunes to gas giants will be presented. These simulations include planets ranging from mini-Neptunes to gas giants will be presented. These simulations include current best estimates of actual instrument throughput, resolution, spectral range, systematic noise, and random noise terms. They show that JWST will be able to determine the atmospheric parameters of a wide variety of planets, often when observing only one or a few transit or eclipse event sequences. The thermal emissions of rocky super-Earths will also be quickly detectable via mid-IR eclipse observations if such planets are found around nearby M star hosts beforehand.

Greene, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Rovibrational Intensities of the (40 deg 1) and (00 deg 0) Pentad Absorption Bands of 12C16O2 Between 7284 and 7921 cm(exp-1)

Carbon dioxide is the major constituent of the atmospheres of both Mars and Venus. Correct interpretations of spectra of these atmospheres require accurate knowledge of a substantial number of absorption bands of this gas. This is especially true for Venus; many weak CO2 bands that are insignificant in the earth's atmosphere are prominent absorbers in Venus' hot, dense lower atmosphere. Yet, recent near-infrared spectra of Venus' nightside have discovered emission windows, which occur between CO2 absorption bands, at 4040-4550 cm(exp-1), 5700-5900 cm(exp-1), and several smaller ones between 7500 and 9400 cm(exp-1). This radiation is due to thermal emission from Venus' lower atmosphere, diminished by scattering and absorption within the sulfuric acid clouds on its way to space. Simulations of these data with radiative transfer models can provide improved information on the abundances of a number of constituents of the lower atmosphere (e.g. H2O, CO, HDO, HCl, HF, and OCS) and the optical properties of the clouds, whose spatial variation modulates the brightness of the emissions. However, the accuracy of these retrievals has been limited by insufficient knowledge of the opacity of some of the gas species, including CO2, at the large pathlengths and high temperatures and pressures that exist on Venus. In particular, modeling the emission spectrum did not produce a good fit for the emission window centered at 7830 cm(exp-1). In an ongoing effort to assist analyses of these Venus spectra, we have been making laboratory intensity measurements of several weak bands of CO2 which are significant absorbers in these Venus emission windows. The CO2 bands that are prominent in the 7830 cm(exp-1) region belong to the vibrational sequence 4v1+v3 and associated hot bands. Only 2 of the 5 bands of this sequence have been previously measured. Modeling Venus' emission spectrum in the 7830 cm(exp-1) region had to rely on calculated intensity values for the weak ground state band at 7921 cm-1 and the associated hot bands. Since the calculated intensities of ground state bands are known to have significant uncertainties, we decided to measure this (40 deg 1)I (left arrow) (00 deg 0) band with the Ames 25 meter multiple reflection absorption cell and Fourier transform spectrometer. We also measured the (40 deg 1) (sub IV) (left arrow) (00 deg 0) band at 7460 cm(exp-1), which also had not been previously measured. These measurements are reported in this article, and we also give our reanalysis of the prior measurements of the (40 deg 1) (sub III) (left arrow) (00 deg 0) bands. These measurements provide the basis for improving calculated intensities for related hot bands as well as simulations of Venus' spectrum.

Giver, L. P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Global Model Simulation of Aerosol Effects of Surface Radiation Budget- Toward Understanding of the "Dimming to Brightening" Transition

We present a global model study on the role aerosols play in the change of solar radiation at Earth's surface that transitioned from a decreasing (dimming) trend to an increasing (brightening) trend. Our primary objective is to understand the relationship between the long-term trends of aerosol emission, atmospheric burden, and surface solar radiation. More specifically, we use the recently compiled comprehensive global emission datasets of aerosols and precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions and other sources from 1980 to 2006 to simulate long-term variations of aerosol distributions and optical properties, and then calculate the multi-decadal changes of short-wave radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere by coupling the GOCART model simulated aerosols with the Goddard radiative transfer model. The model results are compared with long-term observational records from ground-based networks and satellite data. We will address the following critical questions: To what extent can the observed surface solar radiation trends, known as the transition from dimming to brightening, be explained by the changes of anthropogenic and natural aerosol loading on global and regional scales? What are the relative contributions of local emission and long-range transport to the surface radiation budget and how do these contributions change with time?

Chin, Mian↗
NASA NTRS2014

Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

human health↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prominence Mass Supply and the Cavity

A prevalent but untested paradigm is often used to describe the prominence-cavity system; the cavity is under-dense because it it evacuated by supplying mass to the condensed prominence. The thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) model of prominence formation offers a theoretical framework to predict the thermodynamic evolutin of the prominence and the surrounding corona. We examine the evidence for a prominence-cavity connection by comparing the TNE model and diagnostics of dynamic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission surrounding the prominence, specifically prominence horns. Horns are correlated extensions of prminence plasma and coronal plasma which appear to connect the prominence and cavity. The TNE model predicts that large-scale brightenings will occur in the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 171 A badpass near he prominence that are associated with the cooling phase of condensation formation. In our simulations, variations in the magnitude of footpoint heating lead to variations in the duration, spatial scale, and temporal offset between emission enhancements in the other EUV bandpasses. While these predictions match well a subset of the horn observations, the range of variations in the observed structures is not captured by the model. We discuss the implications of one-dimensional loop simulations for the three-dimensional time-averaged equilibrium in the prominence and the cavity. Evidence suggests that horns are likely caused by condensing prominence plasma, but the larger question of whether this process produces a density-depleted cavity requires a more tightly constrained model of heating and better knowledge of the associated magnetic structure.

PROMINENCES↗