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NASA NTRS1996

An Independent Evaluation of the FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis Alternative Study

The present instruments of safety and reliability risk control for a majority of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs/projects consist of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Critical Items List (CIL), and Hazard Report (HR). This extensive analytical approach was introduced in the early 1970's and was implemented for the Space Shuttle Program by NHB 5300.4 (1D-2. Since the Challenger accident in 1986, the process has been expanded considerably and resulted in introduction of similar and/or duplicated activities in the safety/reliability risk analysis. A study initiated in 1995, to search for an alternative to the current FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis methodology generated a proposed method on April 30, 1996. The objective of this Summer Faculty Study was to participate in and conduct an independent evaluation of the proposed alternative to simplify the present safety and reliability risk control procedure.

Ray, Paul S.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

Latimer, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Man-Machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) v5: Augmentations, Motivations, and Directions for Aeronautics Applications

As automation and advanced technologies are introduced into transport systems ranging from the Next Generation Air Transportation System termed NextGen, to the advanced surface transportation systems as exemplified by the Intelligent Transportations Systems, to future systems designed for space exploration, there is an increased need to validly predict how the future systems will be vulnerable to error given the demands imposed by the assistive technologies. One formalized approach to study the impact of assistive technologies on the human operator in a safe and non-obtrusive manner is through the use of human performance models (HPMs). HPMs play an integral role when complex human-system designs are proposed, developed, and tested. One HPM tool termed the Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is a NASA Ames Research Center HPM software tool that has been applied to predict human-system performance in various domains since 1986. MIDAS is a dynamic, integrated HPM and simulation environment that facilitates the design, visualization, and computational evaluation of complex man-machine system concepts in simulated operational environments. The paper will discuss a range of aviation specific applications including an approach used to model human error for NASA s Aviation Safety Program, and what-if analyses to evaluate flight deck technologies for NextGen operations. This chapter will culminate by raising two challenges for the field of predictive HPMs for complex human-system designs that evaluate assistive technologies: that of (1) model transparency and (2) model validation.

Gore, Brian F.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Formal Foundations for Hierarchical Safety Cases

Safety cases are increasingly being required in many safety-critical domains to assure, using structured argumentation and evidence, that a system is acceptably safe. However, comprehensive system-wide safety arguments present appreciable challenges to develop, understand, evaluate, and manage, partly due to the volume of information that they aggregate, such as the results of hazard analysis, requirements analysis, testing, formal verification, and other engineering activities. Previously, we have proposed hierarchical safety cases, hicases, to aid the comprehension of safety case argument structures. In this paper, we build on a formal notion of safety case to formalise the use of hierarchy as a structuring technique, and show that hicases satisfy several desirable properties. Our aim is to provide a formal, theoretical foundation for safety cases. In particular, we believe that tools for high assurance systems should be granted similar assurance to the systems to which they are applied. To this end, we formally specify and prove the correctness of key operations for constructing and managing hicases, which gives the specification for implementing hicases in AdvoCATE, our toolset for safety case automation. We motivate and explain the theory with the help of a simple running example, extracted from a real safety case and developed using AdvoCATE.

Hierarchy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating 240 Pu Prompt Fission Neutron Spectra Including Chi-Nu Experimental Data

This report documents an evaluation of 240 Pu prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) including Chi-Nu experimental data. This work is a FY2025 Q4 NCSP (Nuclear Criticality Safety Program) milestone and named a “strategic priority”. This evaluation is new; it differs substantially from the most recent evaluation included in the ENDF/B library, which was for ENDF/B-VII.1 and then carried over unchanged to ENDF/B-VIII.1. The key difference between ENDF/B-VIII.1 and the new evaluation is that we have, for the first time, realistic experimental 240 Pu PFNS covering a broad incident and outgoing neutron energy range.

240Pu↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Tool for the Automated Design and Evaluation of Habitat Interior Layouts

The objective of space habitat design is to minimize mass and system size while providing adequate space for all necessary equipment and a functional layout that supports crew health and productivity. Unfortunately, development and evaluation of interior layouts is often ignored during conceptual design because of the subjectivity and long times required using current evaluation methods (e.g., human-in-the-loop mockup tests and in-depth CAD evaluations). Early, more objective assessment could prevent expensive design changes that may increase vehicle mass and compromise functionality. This paper describes a new interior design evaluation method to enable early, structured consideration of habitat interior layouts. This interior layout evaluation method features a comprehensive list of quantifiable habitat layout evaluation criteria, automatic methods to measure these criteria from a geometry model, and application of systems engineering tools and numerical methods to construct a multi-objective value function measuring the overall habitat layout performance. In addition to a detailed description of this method, a C++/OpenGL software tool which has been developed to implement this method is also discussed. This tool leverages geometry modeling coupled with collision detection techniques to identify favorable layouts subject to multiple constraints and objectives (e.g., minimize mass, maximize contiguous habitable volume, maximize task performance, and minimize crew safety risks). Finally, a few habitat layout evaluation examples are described to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method and tool to influence habitat design.

Simon, Matthew A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Arc Flash Evaluation Poster

Arc flash evaluation is a key aspect of assessing the safety of an electrical system. An arc flash occurs when a short circuit results in large amounts of unexpected current in a conductor leading to a massive release of energy. By conducting an arc flash evaluation engineers are able to design safer systems and determine the level of protective equipment that a worker needs to wear in order to survive an arc flash incident.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

ECAR-6440 Rev 2 MARVEL Hazard Evaluation

This hazard evaluation supports the Microreactor Applications Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) Project’s design effort and the development of the preliminary documented safety analysis (PDSA) (addendum to safety analysis report [SAR]-420, “Transient Reactor Test [TREAT] Facility FSAR”) (SAR-420-ADD-1). The hazard evaluation process for the MARVEL project for compliance with the requirements in 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” follows a process similar to the Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) as outlined in Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI)-18-04, “Risk-Informed Performance-Based Guidance for Non-Light Water Reactor Licensing Basis Development,” and supporting documents. The LMP process is adapted to fit Department of Energy (DOE) reactor regulatory requirements as applicable and appropriate using a graded approach based on the MARVEL microreactor design. This approach provides reasonable assurance of meeting the requirements of 10 CFR 830 for protection of the public, workers, and environment.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - November 2022 Meeting Notes and Information Request Status

Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This document summarizes results from the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY2023) U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Fukushima-related information and associated discussions during these meetings benefit operating, new, and advanced reactors. Significant safety insights have been and are continuing to be obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional benefits to the operating fleet and new LWR and non-LWR designs. U.S. evaluations of obtained examination information and input regarding future Daiichi examinations are of interest to several organizations within Japan. Since its inception, the U.S. has provided consensus input for high priority time-sequenced examination tasks and supporting research activities. In their Mid-to-Long-term Examination Plan for 1F investigations, TEPCO included all remaining U.S. consensus information requests and additional information requests they identified. TEPCO periodically provides reports on the status of these requests (reflecting D&D priorities, new insights from investigations, and new technologies that become available). Hence, U.S. experts agreed that it was appropriate for TEPCO to track and prioritize these information requests as D&D progresses. U.S. experts will continue to review and comment on the information obtained from examinations and, as needed, provide additional details and relevant background material to support future examinations. As documented in this report, several other items, such as additional details on information requests pertaining to ex-vessel examinations, relevant references from prior research, additional documents to provide insights regarding recent investigation findings, and reviews of recently released documents, were agreed to during the FY2023 meeting.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Electric Propulsion Aircraft Evaluation for Urban Air Mobility: Insights from NASA-Ames

This presentation delves into a recent evaluation conducted at NASA-Ames on the Vertical Motion Simulator, focusing on the handling qualities of Distributed Electric Propulsion VTOL (eVTOL) aircraft, specifically tailored for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) applications. The presentation will focus on the recent effort to adapt and refine use of the Aeronautical Design Standard -33 (ADS-33) rotorcraft handling qualities developed by the U.S. Army and NASA to meet the diverse needs of civilian (eVTOL) concept evaluation. A brief discussion of the author’s personal test pilot insights in the early development of military Fly-By-Wire evaluation methods will also be provided. The emergence of innovative eVTOL designs with unique lift capabilities and flight control systems, present both opportunities and challenges, particularly in ensuring safety amidst technological complexity. To navigate these challenges, our investigation examined evaluation criteria designed to accommodate the varied configurations and advanced automation systems inherent in modern eVTOL aircraft. By establishing a standardized approach to evaluation, our research not only fosters innovation but also upholds safety standards in the dynamic landscape of urban air mobility. Through this endeavor, we help to facilitate the seamless integration of novel aircraft capabilities into new operations, contributing to a new era of safe and efficient aerial transportation.

Loran Allen Haworth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Electric Propulsion Aircraft Evaluation for Urban Air Mobility: Insights from NASA Ames

eVTOL↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Refinement and Exploration

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A risk assessment-informed framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk informed capability to quantitatively estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for safety-related DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of safety-related DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the LWRS-developed framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Adding diversity within a system or components is the primary means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases system complexity and may not address all sources of systematic failures. Optimization of diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the proposed framework provides: (a) A best-estimate, risk informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, focusing on software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; (b) A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems; (c) Technical bases and risk informed insights to assist users address the risk informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; and (d) A risk informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The research and development efforts of this project in FY 2023 are focused on refining current methods on software CCF modeling and estimation and exploring additional innovative approaches to risk assessment of DI&C systems to enable a more comprehensive and complete assessment of various safety-related DI&C design architectures. The primary audience of this report are DI&C designers, engineers, and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) practitioners. This includes stakeholders, such as the nuclear utilities and regulators who consider the deployment and upgrade of DI&C systems, DI&C software developers and reviewers, and cybersecurity specialists. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the methodology, not for the evaluation of an actual digital control system. Results are obtained based on limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bounding Pressure and Flammability Evaluations of Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel Department of Energy Standard Canisters

This paper presents bounding pressure and flammability evaluations for DOE Standard Canister loaded with DOE-managed aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF). The objective of these evaluations is to gain confidence in the safety and feasibility of possible loading configurations for extended (>50 years) periods of dry storage, with particular focus on the dry storage canister pressures and potential for formation of a flammable atmosphere. The primary concern about the extended dry storage of ASNF is radiolytic gas generation. The aluminum cladding of these materials tends to corrode, and these corrosion products—typically aluminum oxides, such as boehmite, bayerite, or gibbsite—could carry water. This makes ASNF dry storage canisters difficult to dry. The gamma radiation field in dry storage environments could cause a radiolytic breakdown of residual water, forming chemical species such as molecular hydrogen (H2). The release of these species could increase the canister pressure and lead to the generation of a flammable canister atmosphere. The bounding evaluations presented within this study surmise conservative, but credible, conditions and processes. This includes the assumption of a full breakdown of a large quantity of free, physisorbed, and chemisorbed water (bound in a trihydrate, i.e., Al2O3 • 3H2O, layer). The considered dry storage configurations include a ~3 m (10 ft) long, ~46 cm (18 in) diameter (10 x 18) DOE Standard Canister loaded with 32 Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) ASNF elements, and a ~3 m (10 ft) long, ~61 cm (24 in) (10 x 24) diameter DOE Standard Canister loaded with 40 ATR ASNF elements. While the results of this study indicate the possibility of atmospheric hydrogen concentrations above the lower flammability limit, insufficient concentrations of oxygen will prevent the formation of flammable atmospheres. The maximum credible pressures remain well within the structural limits of the DOE Standard Canister.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

LANL Meteorology Program Self-Assessment 2025 Update

The LANL Meteorological (Met) Program has been subject to several external reviews over the past 19 years. The DOE Meteorological Coordinating Council (DMCC) conducted an initial Met Program Site Assist Visit (SAV) in August 2006 (DMCC 2006). A follow-up SAV in August 2015 assessed progress (DMCC 2015), and in June 2023, the DOE Meteorological Subcommittee (DMSC), successor to the DMCC, conducted a second follow-up SAV (DMSC 2023), in which the Met Program was evaluated relative to the following 8 high-level questions: • What is the state of the meteorological services provided to its customers? • What is the quality of meteorological data provided to its customers and is it adequate and available to meet all customer needs? • What is the quality of atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling provided to its customers and is it applicable to complex wind flow patterns at LANL? • Are the current and future meteorological service customers being serviced appropriately? • Are there adequate human resources to meet present and future program customer needs and are they being appropriately leveraged? • Are existing instrumentation, facilities, and systems adequate to meet present and future customer needs? • Are LANL meteorological services conducted in an efficient, cost-effective manner? • Is meteorological data used to ensure safety & health of LANL personnel? More specific evaluations were performed relative to 23 performance objectives extracted from the ANSI/ANS-3.11- 2024 national standard and 14 separate performance objectives associated with consequence assessment and atmospheric transport and diffusion modeling in the consequence assessment element of DOE G 151.1-1B. In 2023, the DMSC SAV Team also reviewed the status of each of the 18 remaining recommendations from its 2015 SAV. Based on this review, DMSC stated in its Exit Briefing that the LANL meteorological program has gotten much stronger and more robust since 2015 and now represents one of the better managed programs within the DOE complex.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cool rooms for indoor heat resilience: Evaluating affordable cooling strategies in heat-stressed California homes

Extreme heat conditions pose significant indoor survivability challenges for resource-constrained communities, which often lack access to cooling, have poorly insulated homes, and face compounding socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Moreover, concurrent power outages worsen health risks and heat-related illnesses. It is therefore crucial to develop innovative and affordable cooling approaches to protect vulnerable populations. This study assesses the efficacy of “cool rooms”– a designated space within a home equipped with passive and low-power active cooling measures to maintain safe indoor temperatures during extreme heat events and power disruptions. Using a physics-based building energy modeling approach, we evaluate the efficacy of various retrofit packages in maintaining thermal safety within the cool room under recent extreme heat conditions. The results indicate that passive measures can reduce 64% of hours with unmet standard effective temperatures, while the combination of passive and low-power active measures with built-in batteries further cuts this to 86%. Nevertheless, these strategies remain insufficient to maintain indoor thermal safety during extended outages. In contrast, integrating a solar-powered mini-split heat pump, whose technical potential was evaluated in this study, reduces indoor air temperatures below the 28 °C overheating threshold and significantly improves indoor habitability. The localized cool room strategy also offers potential for grid resilience by reducing peak electricity demand by up to 70% compared to whole house cooling during heat waves. The findings can inform the development of actionable heat mitigation plans and retrofit policies for residential communities with relatively low adoption of air conditioning such as warm marine climates.

Cool room↗

NASA NTRS1990

A Unique Hybrid Propulsion System Design for Large Space Boosters

A study was made of the application of hybrid rocket propulsion technology to large space boosters. Safety, reliability, cost, and performance comprised the evaluation criteria, in order of relative importance, for this study. The effort considered the so called classic hybrid design approach versus a novel approach which utilizes a fuel-rich gas generator for the fuel source. Other trades included various fuel/oxidizer combinations, pressure-fed versus pump fed oxidizer delivery systems, and reusable versus expandable booster systems. Following this initial trade study, a point design was generated. A gas generated-type fuel grain with pump fed liquid oxygen comprised the basis of this point design. This design study provided a mechanism for considering the means of implementing the gas generator approach for further defining details of the design. Subsequently, a system trade study was performed which determined the sensitivity of the design to various design parameters and predicted optimum values for these same parameters. The study concluded that a gas generator hybrid booster design offers enhanced safety and reliability over current of proposed solid booster designs while providing equal or greater performance levels. These improvements can be accomplished at considerably lower cost than for the liquid booster designs of equivalent capability.

Rodgers, Frederick C.↗