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At least 793 records · Page 44

Potential Lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization Experiments and Mission Scenarios

The extraction and use of resources on the Moon, known as In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), can potentially reduce the cost and risk of human lunar exploration while also increasing science achieved. By not having to bring all of the shielding and mission consumables from Earth and being able to make products on the Moon, missions may require less mass to accomplish the same objectives, carry more science equipment, go to more sites of exploration, and/or provide options to recover from failures not possible with delivery of spares and consumables from Earth alone. While lunar ISRU has significant potential for mass, cost, and risk reduction for human lunar missions, it has never been demonstrated before in space. To demonstrate that ISRU can meet mission needs and to increase confidence in incorporating ISRU capabilities into mission architectures, terrestrial laboratory and analog field testing along with robotic precursor missions are required. A stepwise approach with international collaboration is recommended. This paper will outline the role of ISRU in future lunar missions, and define the approach and possible experiments to increase confidence in ISRU applications for future human lunar exploration

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

High Performance EVA Glove Collaboration: Glove Injury Data Mining Effort

Human hands play a significant role during extravehicular activity (EVA) missions and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) training events, as they are needed for translating and performing tasks in the weightless environment. It is because of this high frequency usage that hand- and arm-related injuries and discomfort are known to occur during training in the NBL and while conducting EVAs. Hand-related injuries and discomforts have been occurring to crewmembers since the days of Apollo. While there have been numerous engineering changes to the glove design, hand-related issues still persist. The primary objectives of this study are therefore to: 1) document all known EVA glove-related injuries and the circumstances of these incidents, 2) determine likely risk factors, and 3) recommend ergonomic mitigations or design strategies that can be implemented in the current and future glove designs. METHODS: The investigator team conducted an initial set of literature reviews, data mining of Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) databases, and data distribution analyses to understand the ergonomic issues related to glove-related injuries and discomforts. The investigation focused on the injuries and discomforts of U.S. crewmembers who had worn pressurized suits and experienced glove-related incidents during the 1980 to 2010 time frame, either during training or on-orbit EVA. In addition to data mining of the LSAH database, the other objective of the study was to find complimentary sources of information such as training experience, EVA experience, suit-related sizing data, and hand-arm anthropometric data to be tied to the injury data from LSAH. RESULTS: Past studies indicated that the hand was the most frequently injured part of the body during both EVA and NBL training. This study effort thus focused primarily on crew training data in the NBL between 2002 and 2010. Of the 87 recorded training incidents, 19 occurred to women and 68 to men. While crew ages ranged from thirties to fifties, the age category most affected was in the forties range. Incident rate calculations (incidents per 100 training runs) revealed that the 2002, 2003, and 2004 time periods registered the highest reported incident rate levels (3.4, 6.1, and 4.1 respectively) when compared to the following years (all ≤ 1.0). In addition to general hand-arm discomfort being the highest reported result from training, specific types of hand injuries or symptoms included erythema, fingernail delamination, abrasions, muscle soreness/fatigue, paresthesia, bruising, blanching, and edema. Specific body locations most affected by hand injuries included the metacarpophalangeal joints, fingernails, finger crotches, fingers in general, interphalangeal joints, and fingertips. Causes of injuries reported in the LSAH data were primarily attributed to the forces that the gloved hands were exposed to due to hand intensive tasks and/or poor glove sizing. DISCUSSION: Although the age data indicate that most injuries are reported by male crewmembers in their forties, that is also the dominant gender and age range of most EVA crew therefore it is not an unexpected finding. Age and gender analysis will continue as more details on the uninjured population is accrued. While there is a reasonable mechanism to link training quantity to injury, the results were inconsistent and point to the need for a consistent method of suit-related injury screening and documentation. For instance, the high-incident rate levels for the years 2002 to 2004 could be attributed to a comprehensive medical review of crewmembers post-NBL EVA training that occurred from July 19, 2002 to January 16, 2004. Furthermore, there could have been increased awareness from an investigation at the NBL. These investigations may have temporarily increased the fidelity of reported injuries and discomforts during these dates as compared to surrounding years, when injury signs and symptom were no longer actively being investigated but rather voluntarily reported. Data mining for possible mechanistic factors continues and includes more detailed training timelines, hand anthropometry, and suit sizing information. The limited published data looking at hand-arm anthropometry correlated hand-anthropometry metrics with injuries stemming from glove design and operation. Future work will include further evaluation of body sizing and fit in relation to hand injury incidents.

Reid, C. R.↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hurricane Sandy and Adaptation Pathways in New York: Lessons from a First-Responder City

Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city - the City of New York - have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a ''tipping point'' leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists.

adaptation pathways↗

NASA's Gravitational - Wave Mission Concept Study

With the conclusion of the NASA/ESA partnership on the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Project, NASA initiated a study to explore mission concepts that will accomplish some or all of the LISA science objectives at lower cost. The Gravitational-Wave Mission Concept Study consisted of a public Request for Information (RFI), a Core Team of NASA engineers and scientists, a Community Science Team, a Science Task Force, and an open workshop. The RFI yielded were 12 mission concepts, 3 instrument concepts and 2 technologies. The responses ranged from concepts that eliminated the drag-free test mass of LISA to concepts that replace the test mass with an atom interferometer. The Core Team reviewed the noise budgets and sensitivity curves, the payload and spacecraft designs and requirements, orbits and trajectories and technical readiness and risk. The Science Task Force assessed the science performance by calculating the horizons. the detection rates and the accuracy of astrophysical parameter estimation for massive black hole mergers, stellar-mass compact objects inspiraling into central engines. and close compact binary systems. Three mission concepts have been studied by Team-X, JPL's concurrent design facility. to define a conceptual design evaluate kt,y performance parameters. assess risk and estimate cost and schedule. The Study results are summarized.

Stebbins, Robin↗

Transferable Adversarial Attack on 3D Object Tracking in Point Cloud

3D point cloud object tracking has recently witnessed considerable progress relying on deep learning. Such progress, however, mainly focuses on improving tracking accuracy. The risk, especially considering that deep neural network is vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, of a tracker being attacked is often neglected and rarely explored. In order to attract attentions to this potential risk and facilitate the study of robustness in point cloud tracking, we introduce a novel transferable attack network (TAN) to deceive 3D point cloud tracking. Specifically, TAN consists of a 3D adversarial generator, which is trained with a carefully designed multi-fold drift (MFD) loss. The MFD loss considers three common grounds, including classification, intermediate feature and angle drifts, across different 3D point cloud tracking frameworks for perturbation generation, leading to high transferability of TAN for attack. In our extensive experiments, we demonstrate the proposed TAN is able to not only drastically degrade the victim 3D point cloud tracker, \ie, P2B, but also effectively deceive other unseen state-of-the-art approaches such as BAT and M^2Track, posing a new threat to 3D point cloud tracking.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recuperated Joule-Brayton Pumped Thermal Energy Storage

This article describes a techno-economic model for pumped thermal energy storage systems based on recuperated Joule-Brayton cycles and two-tank liquid storage. Models have been developed for each component, with particular emphasis on the heat exchangers. Economic metrics such as the power and energy capital costs (i.e., per-kW and per-kWh capacity) and levelized cost of storage are evaluated by gathering numerous cost correlations from the literature, thereby enabling estimates of uncertainty. It is found that the use of heat exchangers with effectivenesses up to 0.95 is economically worthwhile, but higher values lead to rapidly escalating component size and system cost. Several hot storage fluids are considered; those operating at the highest temperatures (chloride salts) improve the round-trip efficiency but the benefit is marginal and may not warrant the additional material costs and risk when compared to lower-temperature nitrate salts. Cost-efficiency trade-offs are explored using a multi-objective optimization algorithm, yielding optimal designs with round-trip efficiencies in the range 59-72% and corresponding levelized storage costs of 0.12 0.03 and 0.38 0.10 $/kWhe. Lifetime costs are competitive with lithium-ion batteries for discharging durations greater than 6 h under current scenarios.

Carnot battery↗

129 I and 99 Tc Distribution Coefficients of Subsurface Sediments Collected from the Proposed Site of the Environmental Manage Disposal Facility

Performance Assessment calculations are presently underway to evaluate the Environmental Management Disposal Facility (EMDF), a proposed new low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facility on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Among the large number of input parameters needed for such calculations, are distribution coefficients (K d values; radionuclide concentration solid:liquid ratio) that provide a measure of the tendency of radionuclides to bind to sediments. The objective of this study was to measure K d values of two radionuclides that may pose a disproportionately large amount of risk, 129 I and 99 Tc. The average I K d value for the 10 geological materials recovered from the proposed EMDF site was 52.3 mL/g and ranged from 2.7 to 140.9 mL/g. These values were consistent, but somewhat larger than previous measurements made with ORR sediments and were about an order of magnitude greater than those used in previous EMDF PA calculations. The median Tc K d value was 807.2 mL/g, much greater than previously reported using ORR geological materials. Five of the ten tested geological materials sorbed large quantities of Tc, suggesting that the weakly sorbing Tc(VII) species had been reduced to the very strongly binding and sparingly soluble Tc(IV) species. The five strongly sorbing sediment had apparent solubility values of approximately <10 -8 mol/L. Based on sediment properties and general ORR geological considerations, it was proposed that much of the I and Tc sorption could be attributed to the low pH (average pH = 4.94), low redox status, and/or the elevated levels of iron oxides, manganese oxides, and natural organic matter. An implication of this study is that the areas of the EMDF subsurface environment may have natural properties for attenuating I and Tc movement, thereby potentially reducing risk posed by burial of LLW at this site.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

ASER Annual Site Environmental Report 2020 Summary

We are committed to act as stewards of our environment to achieve our mission in accordance with all applicable environmental requirements. We set continual improvement objectives and targets, measure and document our progress, and share ourresults with our workforce, sponsors, and public. We reduce our environmental risk through legacy cleanup, pollution prevention, and long-term sustainability programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the effectiveness of a camera-based detection system to support informed curtailment and minimize eagle fatalities at wind energy facilities

The American Wind Wildlife Institute (AWWI – now Renewable Energy Wildlife Institute, REWI) – was appointed prime awardee of DOE award number DE-EE0007880 to lead a team of scientists, wind developers, and technology manufacturers in a collaborative evaluation of the effectiveness of a technology intended to help reduce eagle collisions with wind turbines. IdentiFlight, developed by Renewable Energy Systems (RES) in collaboration with Boulder Imaging, is an autonomous aerial monitoring and detection system. REWI partnered with ecological consultants, Western Ecosystems Technology, Inc. (WEST), to independently evaluate the performance of IdentiFlight reducing eagle collision risk under a suite of environmental conditions relative to the performance of a Biomonitor (human observer-based) Program. The project objectives were to 1) evaluate how IdentiFlight compared to biomonitors in detecting and identifying eagles under a suite of environmental conditions and 2) use the observation data to model how IdentiFlight and biomonitors reduced the eagle fatality prediction through informed curtailment. Field testing was to take place at two geographically distinct wind farms over two field seasons at each wind farm with a study design appropriate for meta-analyses across sites and years.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

129 I, 99 Tc, And U Distribution Coefficients of Subsurface Sediments Collected from the Proposed Site of the Environmental Management Disposal Facility

Performance Assessment calculations were completed in 2020 to evaluate the Environmental Management Disposal Facility (EMDF), a proposed new low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facility on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Among the large number of input parameters needed for such calculations, are distribution coefficients (K d values; radionuclide concentration solid:liquid ratio) that provide a measure of the tendency of radionuclides to bind to sediments. The objective of this study was to measure K d values of three radionuclides that may pose a disproportionately large amount of risk, U, 129 I and 99 Tc. The average I K d value for the 14 geological materials recovered from the proposed EMDF site was 37.8 mL/g and ranged from -1.8 to 140.9 mL/g. These values were consistent, but somewhat larger than previous measurements made with ORR sediments and were about an order of magnitude greater than those used in previous EMDF PA calculations. The median Tc K d value was 365.7 mL/g, much greater than previously reported using ORR geological materials. Five of the 14 tested geological materials sorbed large quantities of Tc, suggesting that the weakly sorbing Tc(VII) species had been reduced to the sparingly soluble Tc(IV) species. The five strongly sorbing sediments had apparent Tc solubility values of approximately <10 -8 mol/L. The median U K d value was 5,726 mL/g. All of the tested geological materials had large K d values, ranging from 625 to >10,208 mL/g. Among the sediment samples that exhibited strong U binding, the apparent solubility value was approximately <10 -9 mol/L. Based on sediment properties and general ORR geological considerations, it was proposed that much of the I and Tc retention could be attributed to the site materials exhibiting low pH (average pH = 4.94), low redox status, and/or the elevated levels of iron oxides, manganese oxides, and natural organic matter. Similarly, the extremely high U binding measured in these sediments may also be attributed to the low conditions of carbonates, which can complex and therefore solubilize uranyl in these tests due to the low pH, and also the relatively high concentrations of iron and organic coatings on these samples. An implication of this study is that the areas of the EMDF subsurface environment may have natural properties for attenuating I, Tc, and U movement, and potentially other radionuclides, thereby possibly reducing risk posed by burial of LLW at this site. This document is a revision of SRNL-STI-2021-00404, Revision 0 that includes new data describing U K d values and new I and Tc K d values for four Nolichucky sediments. These new results were integrated into the data presented in the original document.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

RBDMS, FracFocus, State Support, and Produced Water Initiatives

Award DE-FE-0027702 from the Department of Energy to the Ground Water Protection Council (GWPC) focused on state and federal priorities in the areas of state Risk Based Data Management System (RBDMS) development, connectivity between state systems and FracFocus.org, and data sharing initiatives across agencies. The primary objective was to enhance the RBDMS by adding new components relevant to current environmental topics such as hydraulic fracturing, increasing field inspection capabilities, creating linkages between FracFocus and state programs, upgrading eForm capabilities, and analyzing potential for data sharing. The recipient worked with state agencies developing RBDMS module(s) that meet these needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

R&D to Ensure a Scientific Basis for Qualification Tests and Standards (Final Report)

Project return on investment in a photovoltaic (PV) system depends increasingly on maintaining high energy yields, and the system lifetime is a major factor in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Thus, the rate of PV deployment and the success of these assets depends upon reliable long-term power generation. The overarching objective of this program is to improve photovoltaic (PV) module reliability via development of tests and standards. Where reliability problems or risk are discovered, we can design tests to ensure that these liabilities don't affect future generations of products. Customers can use these tests to understand which products are susceptible to certain degradation mechanisms, and manufacturers can use the tests to design unwanted characteristics out of their products. The work under this program identifies PV reliability needs, performs characterization that provides scientific understanding of targeted degradation mechanisms, and translates those data into practical and predictive test protocols and standards. Major accomplishments include: A model for polarization-type potential induced degradation (PID-p) was developed and validated against experimental data. NREL is currently leading a new edition of IEC 62804-1 for PID detection. PID-p can cause large losses in current and voltage for some module designs on cloudy days. Finite element modeling (FEM) and experiment was used to determine when cells crack in a module. It was shown that cells in landscape orientation are much more likely to crack than those on portrait orientation. Shortly thereafter, the first products with portrait-oriented cells were introduced. Studies of how to test for light and elevated temperature degradation (LeTID) culminated with the publication of IEC TS 63342. Software to predict the progression of LeTID was developed, validated, and made publicly available. Field validated tests and international standards for durability of PV module coatings abrasion, backsheets, and encapsulants were developed. Examples are IEC 62788-1-1, IEC 62788-2 ED2, IEC TS 62788-7-2, IEC 62788-7-3 ED1, IEC 63209-2. NREL led the development a high-temperature testing technical specification, and published guidelines that enable installers to determine whether higher-temperature testing is needed, simply based on location and mounting configuration. In a number of our case studies, variations in the bills of materials or workmanship have been associated with variations in reliability. These observations emphasize the importance of quality assurance to reliability. A framework for criticality (i.e. Pareto) analysis was developed and published. The framework helps us and other researchers determine what problems should be addressed for reliability research to have the biggest industry impact. NREL continues to participate actively in international standards development and stakeholder engagement activities, including organizing an annual PV Reliability Workshop. These activities are important for ensuring we address issues that are relevant and timely, and that we convey our results to those who may benefit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

129 I, 99 Tc, and U Distribution Coefficients of Subsurface Sediments Collected from the Proposed Site of the Environmental Management Disposal Facility

Performance Assessment calculations were completed in 2020 to evaluate the Environmental Management Disposal Facility (EMDF), a proposed new low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facility on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Among the large number of input parameters needed for such calculations, are distribution coefficients (K d values; radionuclide concentration solid: liquid ratio) that provide a measure of the tendency of radionuclides to bind to sediments. The objective of this study was to measure K d values of three radionuclides that may pose a disproportionately large amount of risk, U, iodine-129 ( 129 I) and technetium-99 ( 99 Tc). The average 129 I K d value for the 14 geological materials recovered from the proposed EMDF site was 37.8 mL/g and ranged from 0.45 to 140.9 mL/g. These values were consistent, but somewhat larger than previous measurements made with ORR sediments and were about an order of magnitude greater than those used in previous EMDF PA calculations. The median 99 Tc K d value was 365.7 mL/g, much greater than previously reported using ORR geological materials. Five of the 14 tested geological materials sorbed large quantities of 99 Tc, suggesting that the weakly sorbing 99 Tc(VII) species had been reduced to the sparingly soluble 99 Tc(IV) species. The five strongly sorbing sediments had apparent 99 Tc solubility values of approximately <10 -8 mol/L. The median U K d value was 5,726 mL/g. All of the tested geological materials had large K d values, ranging from 625 to >10,208 mL/g. Among the sediment samples that exhibited strong U binding, the apparent solubility value was approximately <10 -9 mol/L. Based on sediment properties and general ORR geological considerations, it was proposed that much of the 129 I and 99 Tc retention could be attributed to the site materials exhibiting low pH (average pH = 4.94), and/or the elevated levels of iron oxides, manganese oxides, and natural organic matter. Similarly, the extremely high U binding measured in these sediments may also be attributed to the low conditions of carbonates, which can complex and therefore solubilize uranyl in these tests due to the low pH, and also the relatively high concentrations of iron and organic coatings on these samples. An implication of this study is that the areas of the EMDF subsurface environment may have natural properties for attenuating 129 I, 99 Tc, and U movement, and potentially other radionuclides, thereby possibly reducing risk posed by burial of LLW at this site.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Update to the safety program for the general-purpose heat source radioisotope thermoelectric generators for the Galileo and Ulysses missions

With the rescheduling of the Galileo and Ulysses launches and the use of new upper stages following the Challenger accident, the aerospace nuclear safety program for the general-purpose heat source radioisotope thermoelectric generators (GPHS-RTGs) was extended to accommodate the new mission scenarios. As in the original safety program, the objectives were to determine the response of the GPHS-RTG to the various postulated accident environments and to determine the risk (if any) associated with these postulated accidents. The extended GPHS-RTG safety program was successfully completed in sufficient time to prepare an updated Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) with revisions for the October 1989 launch of the Galileo spacecraft.

Bennett, Gary L.↗

Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems

This document contains the proceedings of the Training Workshop on Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems held at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, May 30-3 1, 2001. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University's Center for Advanced Engineering Environments and NASA. Workshop attendees were from NASA, other government agencies, industry, and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to give overviews of the diverse activities in nondeterministic approaches, uncertainty management methodologies, reliability assessment and risk management techniques, and to identify their potential for future aerospace systems.

Ahmed K Noor↗

Functional brain imaging of a complex navigation task following one night of total sleep deprivation

Study Objectives: To assess the cerebral effects associated with sleep deprivation in a simulation of a complex, real-world, high-risk task. Design and Interventions: A two-week, repeated measures, cross-over experimental protocol, with counterbalanced orders of normal sleep (NS) and total sleep deprivation (TSD). Setting: Each subject underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while performing a dual-joystick, 3D sensorimotor navigation task (simulated orbital docking). Scanning was performed twice per subject, once following a night of normal sleep (NS), and once following a single night of total sleep deprivation (TSD). Five runs (eight 24s docking trials each) were performed during each scanning session. Participants: Six healthy, young, right-handed volunteers (2 women; mean age 20) participated. Measurements and Results: Behavioral performance on multiple measures was comparable in the two sleep conditions. Neuroimaging results within sleep conditions revealed similar locations of peak activity for NS and TSD, including left sensorimotor cortex, left precuneus (BA 7), and right visual areas (BA 18/19). However, cerebral activation following TSD was substantially larger and exhibited higher amplitude modulations from baseline. When directly comparing NS and TSD, most regions exhibited TSD>NS activity, including multiple prefrontal cortical areas (BA 8/9,44/45,47), lateral parieto-occipital areas (BA 19/39, 40), superior temporal cortex (BA 22), and bilateral thalamus and amygdala. Only left parietal cortex (BA 7) demonstrated NS>TSD activity. Conclusions: The large network of cerebral differences between the two conditions, even with comparable behavioral performance, suggests the possibility of detecting TSD-induced stress via functional brain imaging techniques on complex tasks before stress-induced failures.

Strangman, Gary↗

The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft

Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.

Krisko, Paula H.↗