Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “risk informed design”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44

Managing a project's legacy: implications for organizations and project management

Organizations that rely on projects to implement their products must find effective mechanisms for propagating lessons learned on one project throughout the organization. A broad view of what constitutes a project's 'legacy' is presented that includes not just the design products and leftover parts, but new processes, relationships, technology, skills, planning data, and performance metrics. Based on research evaluating knowledge reuse in innovative contexts, this paper presents an approach to project legacy management that focuses on collecting and using legacy knowledge to promote organizational learning and effective reuse, while addressing factors of post-project responsibility, information obsolescence, and the importance of ancillary contextual information. .

risk management↗

A Planetary Protection Strategy for the Mars Aerial Regional-Scale Environmental Survey (ARES) Mission Concept

The Aerial Regional-scale Environmental Survey (ARES) is a Mars exploration mission concept designed to send an airplane to fly through the lower atmosphere of Mars, with the goal of taking scientific measurements of the atmosphere, surface, and subsurface phenomenon. ARES was first proposed to the Mars Scout program in December 2002 for a 2007 launch opportunity and was selected to proceed with a Phase A study, step-2 proposal which was submitted in May 2003. ARES was not selected for the Scout mission, but efforts continued on risk reduction of the atmospheric flight system in preparation for the next Mars Scout opportunity in 2006. The ARES concept was again proposed in July 2006 to the Mars Scout program but was not selected to proceed into Phase A. This document describes the Planetary Protection strategy that was developed in ARES Pre Phase-A activities to help identify, early in the design process, certain hardware, assemblies, and/or subsystems that will require unique design considerations based on constraints imposed by Planetary Protection requirements. Had ARES been selected as an exploration project, information in this document would make up the ARES Project Planetary Protection Plan.

Kuhl, Christopher A.↗

Economic Metrics for Commercial Reusable Space Transportation Systems

The success of any effort depends upon the effective initial definition of its purpose, in terms of the needs to be satisfied and the goals to be fulfilled. If the desired product is "A System" that is well-characterized, these high-level need and goal statements can be transformed into system requirements by traditional systems engineering techniques. The satisfaction of well-designed requirements can be tracked by fairly straightforward cost, schedule, and technical performance metrics. Unfortunately, some types of efforts, including those that NASA terms "Programs," tend to resist application of traditional systems engineering practices. In the NASA hierarchy of efforts, a "Program" is often an ongoing effort with broad, high-level goals and objectives. A NASA "project" is a finite effort, in terms of budget and schedule, that usually produces or involves one System. Programs usually contain more than one project and thus more than one System. Special care must be taken in the formulation of NASA Programs and their projects, to ensure that lower-level project requirements are traceable to top-level Program goals, feasible with the given cost and schedule constraints, and measurable against top-level goals. NASA Programs and projects are tasked to identify the advancement of technology as an explicit goal, which introduces more complicating factors. The justification for funding of technology development may be based on the technology's applicability to more than one System, Systems outside that Program or even external to NASA. Application of systems engineering to broad-based technology development, leading to effective measurement of the benefits, can be valid, but it requires that potential beneficiary Systems be organized into a hierarchical structure, creating a "system of Systems." In addition, these Systems evolve with the successful application of the technology, which creates the necessity for evolution of the benefit metrics to reflect the changing baseline. Still, economic metrics for technology development in these Programs and projects remain fairly straightforward, being based on reductions in acquisition and operating costs of the Systems. One of the most challenging requirements that NASA levies on its Programs is to plan for the commercialization of the developed technology. Some NASA Programs are created for the express purpose of developing technology for a particular industrial sector, such as aviation or space transportation, in financial partnership with that sector. With industrial investment, another set of goals, constraints and expectations are levied on the technology program. Economic benefit metrics then expand beyond cost and cost savings to include the marketability, profit, and investment return requirements of the private sector. Commercial investment criteria include low risk, potential for high return, and strategic alignment with existing product lines. These corporate criteria derive from top-level strategic plans and investment goals, which rank high among the most proprietary types of information in any business. As a result, top-level economic goals and objectives that industry partners bring to cooperative programs cannot usually be brought into technical processes, such as systems engineering, that are worked collaboratively between Industry and Government. In spite of these handicaps, the top-level economic goals and objectives of a joint technology program can be crafted in such a way that they accurately reflect the fiscal benefits from both Industry and Government perspectives. Valid economic metrics can then be designed that can track progress toward these goals and objectives, while maintaining the confidentiality necessary for the competitive process.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)

This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Mars Ascent Vehicle Hybrid Propulsion Configuration

As part of a Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign, two Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) configurations have been designed in parallel. Each ascent vehicle configuration has a different propulsion system which ultimately leads to two unique vehicle designs. As part of a Preliminary Architecture Assessment (PAA), these vehicle designs were developed to the same level of maturity in order to inform the selection of one of the vehicles as the point of departure design for the campaign. The selection will be made in November 2019. The initial MSR architecture called for a hybrid-based propulsion MAV. This type of propulsion system calls for a solid wax motor that would utilize liquid MON-25 as an oxidizer. Hybrid rocket propulsion allows for more flexibility than traditional solid or liquid propulsion options, and typically benefits from the advantages of both. A hybrid motor can be throttled and shut down easily, and avoids significant risk in manufacturing and handling. On a theoretical level, hybrid motors perform at a higher specific impulse (Isp) than solid motors. The primary disadvantage of hybrid motors comes from additional complexity and significantly less flight heritage and low Technology Readiness Level (TRL). This paper describes the design of the hybrid propulsion configuration. An additional paper will be published describing the design of the solid propulsion configuration1. The hybrid propulsion configuration MAV was developed in 2019 by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in association with NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). It features a Single Stage to Orbit (SSTO) design with an SP7A solid wax fuel and MON-25 liquid oxidizer. The liquid portion of the vehicle allows for a Liquid Injection Thrust Vector Controller (LITVC) as well as hypergolic propellant additives for ignition. The vehicle was designed to deliver approximately 0.31kg of Martian geological samples to a circular orbit at Mars of 343km at a 25o inclination. Although hybrid propulsion in general has been used on launch vehicles in the past, the integrated vehicle subsystems that operate in conjunction with these propulsion elements do not typically operate in a Martian environment, which in this application can get as cold as -40oC. The PAA advanced the maturity of these subsystems by performing detailed design and analysis on the vehicle with respect to structures and mechanisms, Guidance/Navigation/Control (GNC) systems, avionics, Reaction Control System (RCS), LITVC, thermal environments, and advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). This paper will summarize the results of these studies.

Yaghoubi, Darius↗

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

In a recent address at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, Vice President Al Gore articulated a Digital Earth Vision. That vision spoke to developing a multi-resolution, three-dimensional visual representation of the planet into which we can roam and zoom into vast quantities of embedded geo-referenced data. The vision was not limited to moving through space, but also allowing travel over a time-line, which can be set for days, years, centuries, or even geological epochs. A working group of Federal Agencies, developing a coordinated program to implement the Vice President's vision, developed the definition of the Digital Earth as a visual representation of our planet that enables a person to explore and interact with the vast amounts of natural and cultural geo-referenced information gathered about the Earth. One of the challenges identified by the agencies was whether the technology existed that would be available to permanently store and deliver all the digital data that enterprises might want to save for decades and centuries. Satellite digital data is growing by Moore's Law as is the growth of computer generated data. Similarly, the density of digital storage media in our information-intensive society is also increasing by a factor of four every three years. The technological bottleneck is that the bandwidth for transferring data is only growing at a factor of four every nine years. This implies that the migration of data to viable long-term storage is growing more slowly. The implication is that older data stored on increasingly obsolete media are at considerable risk if they cannot be continuously migrated to media with longer life times. Another problem occurs when the software and hardware systems for which the media were designed are no longer serviced by their manufacturers. Many instances exist where support for these systems are phased out after mergers or even in going out of business. In addition, survivability of older media can suffer from physical breakdown of components (e.g. tapes simply lose their magnetic properties after a long time in storage). As a result, a potential data survivability crisis is emerging. The scale of the crisis is comparable to that facing the Social Security System. Sometime in one or two decades, the exponential growth of data will become so great that many enterprises will not be able to migrate through their data to more permanent media during the lifetime of the media on which it resides. This will result in significant losses of data and their resultant impacts. To avoid this crisis, we need to plan and devote greater financial and intellectual resources are needed for the development and refinement of new storage media and migration technologies in order to preserve all data any organization determines worth saving permanently. This talk will explore technological solutions and suggested recommendations to address this technological data crisis.

Halem, Milton↗

Early Results and Spaceflight Implications of the SWAB Flight Experiment

Microbial monitoring of spacecraft environments provides key information in the assessment of infectious disease risk to the crew. Monitoring aboard the Mir space station and International Space Station (ISS) has provided a tremendous informational baseline to aid in determining the types and concentrations of microorganisms during a mission. Still, current microbial monitoring hardware utilizes culture-based methodology which may not detect many medically significant organisms, such as Legionella pneumophila. We hypothesize that evaluation of the ISS environment using non-culture-based technologies would reveal microorganisms not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. To achieve this goal, a spaceflight experiment, operationally designated as SWAB, was designed to evaluate the DNA from environmental samples collected from ISS and vehicles destined for ISS. Results from initial samples indicate that the sample collection and return procedures were successful. Analysis of these samples using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and targeted PCR primers for fungal contaminants is underway. The current results of SWAB and their implication for in-flight molecular analysis of environmental samples will be discussed.

Ott, C. Mark↗

Smart Semi-Supervised Accumulation of Large Repositories for Industrial Control Systems Device Information

Industrial Control Systems device manufacturers frequently add new features to improve their product performance. Oftentimes, these changes are mainly vendor-driven initiatives, and customers may not be aware of the full impact of these new capabilities on their cybersecurity posture. In the energy sector, this can lead to considerable dissonance between vendor-provided cybersecurity claims and a customer’s responsibility for Operation Technology cybersecurity compliance. Thus, the resulting dynamic verification burden is shifted towards the customer and may pose a significant cybersecurity risk to the energy sector landscape. We found that there is very limited research into cybersecurity auditing for Operational Technology. However, a solution is needed for vetting the vendor-supplied feature claims and their adherence to cybersecurity requirements and standards. We are presently engaged in an effort to develop such a system. This paper demonstrates one vital aspect of this effort in proposing an end-to-end framework to accumulate a large repository of ICS device information for this vetting system, curate the dataset, and conduct extensive processing. This framework is designed to use web scraping, data analytics and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to identify vendor websites, automate the collection of website-accessible documents and automatically derive metadata from them for identification of product documents relevant to the repository. We have found that this automated approach to vendor identification, document extraction into a product repository, and NLP pre-processing is unique and has not been previously presented in the literature. The preliminary work shows that this is feasible and can produce reliable results with minimum supervision. Future work will be built upon this foundation in order to achieve semi-supervised vetting of device technical information – a vital capability for ensuring that vendor-claimed device cybersecurity capabilities match industry requirements.

Ameri, Kimia↗

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

ARC disruption physics and strategy

Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) plans to operate a tokamak power plant called ARC in the early 2030s. Tokamak plasmas have stability limits that, if crossed, lead to a rapid termination of the plasma, referred to as a disruption. Disruptions pose a melt risk to the first wall resulting from thermal and non-thermal particle heat fluxes, and an electromagnetic loading risk on all metal components within the equilibrium coils. A comprehensive set of models is used herein to provide an assessment of both mitigated and unmitigated ARC disruption loads. A preliminary massive gas injection system is baselined and a runaway electron mitigation coil option is proposed to close possible gaps in the baseline. It is predicted that all ARC disruption loads are within a factor of 2 of the disruption loads in SPARC, a tokamak presently under construction by CFS, and therefore SPARC provides an opportunity to calibrate models, test solutions and inform the design of ARC. The goal for ARC is disruption-free operation, however, the pragmatic design target is to withstand one mitigated disruption per day, and to restart the plasma following mitigation in tens of seconds without interrupting the power output. Unmitigated disruptions must be rare, and experience with unmitigated disruption impacts in SPARC will better define what rare means. The implications of this strategy for plasma disruptivity and disruption prediction are discussed, and operating the ARC scenario on SPARC is expected to refine the ARC final design and operational plan.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Mars Project: Avoiding Decompression Sickness on a Distant Planet

A cost-effective approach for Mars exploration is to use available resources, such as water and atmospheric gases. Nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) are available and could form the inert gas component of a habitat atmosphere at 8.0, 9.0, or 10.0 pounds per square inch (psia). The habitat and space suit are designed as an integrated system: a comfortable living environment about 85% of the time and a safe working environment about 15% of the time. A goal is to provide a system that permits unrestricted exploration of Mars, but the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) during the extravehicular activity in a 3.75-psia suit, after exposure to any of the three habitat conditions, may limit unrestricted exploration. I evaluate here the risk of DCS since a significant proportion of a trinary breathing gas in the habitat might contain Ar. I draw on past experience and published information to extrapolate into untested, multivariable conditions to evaluate risk. A rigorous assessment of risk as a probability of DCS for each habitat condition is not yet possible. Based on many assumptions about Ar in hypobaric decompressions, I conclude that the presence of Ar significantly increases the risk of DCS. The risk is significant even with the best habitat option: 2.56 psia oxygen, 3.41 psia N2, and 2.20 psia Ar. Several hours of prebreathing 100% 02, a higher suit pressure, or a combination of other important variables such as limited exposure time on the surface or exercise during prebreathe would be necessary to reduce the risk of DCS to an acceptable level. The acceptable level for DCS risk on Mars has not yet been determined. Mars is a great distance from Earth and therefore from primary medical care. The acceptable risk would necessarily be defined by the capability to treat DCS in the Rover vehicle, in the habitat, or both.

Conkin, Johnny↗

Knowledge Base for Distributed Spacecraft Mission Design Using the Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C)

Opportunities for multi-point measurements, greater revisit frequency, failure robustness, and improved cost effectiveness motivate consideration of Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) for future Earth science missions. However, careful analysis is required to assess the distributed sensing capabilities of a constellation compared to more mature monolithic spacecraft while also considering other important dimensions such as cost and risk. The large combinatorial DSM design space limits existing mission analysis tools and exploration methods which emphasize monolithic design variables. The Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) under development at Goddard seeks to enumerate and evaluate alternative mission architectures to minimize cost and maximize scientific return for pre-defined goals during pre-phase A analysis.Similar to other model-centric engineering efforts, efficient data management is a significant challenge for DSM mission analysis. In TAT-C, a Knowledge Base (KB) is envisioned as a cumulative central repository of information and meta-information about DSMs. Initial KB concepts store related data for reuse within or across mission analyses; however, over time, the KB is envisioned to be an important layer to coordinate actions of both human analysts and automated design agents to search a large design space for desirable mission alternatives. Preliminary KB research builds on a modern web technology stack to provide the following functionality: 1) storage of trade-space search requests which set requirements and constraints for DSM concepts, 2) storage of analysis results which quantify performance metrics for evaluated DSM concepts, 3) a RESTful application programming interface (API) for scripted access to data from TAT-C modules, 4) web-based graphical user interface (GUI) for manual access to underlying data, and 5) access control and management restrictions relevant to data protection and security. These efforts have culminated in a prototype KB used by the research team during TAT-C development to assess opportunities for future work.

Pattern Recognition↗

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

Optical Biosensor Platforms Display Varying Sensitivity for the Direct Detection of Influenza RNA

Detection methods that do not require nucleic acid amplification are advantageous for viral diagnostics due to their rapid results. These platforms could provide information for both accurate diagnoses and pandemic surveillance. Influenza virus is prone to pandemic-inducing genetic mutations, so there is a need to apply these detection platforms to influenza diagnostics. Here, we analyzed the Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks (FEVER) pipeline on ultrasensitive detection platforms, including a waveguide-based optical biosensor and a flow cytometry bead-based assay. The pipeline was also evaluated in silico for sequence coverage in comparison to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) influenza A and B diagnostic assays. The influenza FEVER probe design had a higher tolerance for mismatched bases than the CDC’s probes, and the FEVER probes altogether had a higher detection rate for influenza isolate sequences from GenBank. When formatted for use as molecular beacons, the FEVER probes detected influenza RNA as low as 50 nM on the waveguide-based optical biosensor and 1 nM on the flow cytometer. In addition to molecular beacons, which have an inherently high background signal we also developed an exonuclease selection method that could detect 500 pM of RNA. The combination of high-coverage probes developed using the FEVER pipeline coupled with ultrasensitive optical biosensors is a promising approach for future influenza diagnostic and biosurveillance applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Non-airborne conflicts: The causes and effects of runway transgressions

The 1210 ASRS runway transgression reports are studied and expanded to yield descriptive statistics. Additionally, a one of three subset was studied in detail for purposes of evaluating the causes, risks, and consequences behind trangression events. Occurrences are subdivided by enabling factor and flight phase designations. It is concluded that a larger risk of collision is associated with controller enabled departure transgressions over all other categories. The influence of this type is especially evident during the period following the air traffic controllers' strike of 1981. Causal analysis indicates that, coincidentally, controller enabled departure transgressions also, show the strongest correlations between causal factors. It shows that departure errors occur more often when visibility is reduced, and when multiple takeoff runways or intersection takeoffs are employed. In general, runway transgressions attributable to both pilot and controller errors arise from three problem areas: information transfer, awareness, and spatial judgement. Enhanced awareness by controllers will probably reduce controller enabled incidents.

Tarrel, Richard J.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

Direct-Drive Gas-Cooled Reactor Power System: Concept and Preliminary Testing

This paper describes the concept and preliminary component testing of a gas-cooled, UN-fueled, pin-type reactor which uses He/Xe gas that goes directly into a recuperated Brayton system to produce electricity for nuclear electric propulsion. This Direct-Drive Gas-Cooled Reactor (DDG) is designed to be subcritical under water or wet- sand immersion in case of a launch accident. Because the gas-cooled reactor can directly drive the Brayton turbomachinery, it is possible to configure the system such that there are no external surfaces or pressure boundaries that are refractory metal, even though the gas delivered to the turbine is 1144 K. The He/Xe gas mixture is a good heat transport medium when flowing, and a good insulator when stagnant. Judicious use of stagnant cavities as insulating regions allows transport of the 1144-K gas while keeping all external surfaces below 900 K. At this temperature super-alloys (Hastelloy or Inconel) can be used instead of refractory metals. Super-alloys reduce the technology risk because they are easier to fabricate than refractory metals, we have a much more extensive knowledge base on their characteristics, and, because they have a greater resistance to oxidation, system testing is eased. The system is also relatively simple in its design: no additional coolant pumps, heat exchanger, or freeze-thaw systems are required. Key to success of this concept is a good knowledge of the heat transfer between the fuel pins and the gas, as well as the pressure drop through the system. This paper describes preliminary testing to obtain this key information, as well as experience in demonstrating electrically heated testing of simulated reactor components.

Wright, S. A.↗