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At least 793 records · Page 44

Accuracy of Tilt Rotor Hover Performance Predictions

The accuracy of various methods used to predict tilt rotor hover performance was established by comparing predictions with large-scale experimental data. A wide range of analytical approaches were examined. Blade lift was predicted with a lifting line analysis, two lifting surface analyses, and by a finite-difference solution of the full potential equation. Blade profile drag was predicted with two different types of airfoil tables and an integral boundary layer analysis. The inflow at the rotor was predicted using momentum theory, two types of prescribed wakes, and two free wake analyses. All of the analyses were accurate at moderate thrust coefficients. The accuracy of the analyses at high thrust coefficients was dependent upon their treatment of high sectional angles of attack on the inboard sections of the rotor blade. The analyses which allowed sectional lift coefficients on the inboard stations of the blade to exceed the maximum observed in two-dimensional wind tunnel tests provided better accuracy at high thrust coefficients than those which limited lift to the maximum two-dimensional value. These results provide tilt rotor aircraft designers guidance on which analytical approaches provide the best results, and the level of accuracy which can be expected from the best analyses.

Felker, Fort F.↗

Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

Nelson, R. F.↗

Extrapolation of the dna fragment-size distribution after high-dose irradiation to predict effects at low doses

The patterns of DSBs induced in the genome are different for sparsely and densely ionizing radiations: In the former case, the patterns are well described by a random-breakage model; in the latter, a more sophisticated tool is needed. We used a Monte Carlo algorithm with a random-walk geometry of chromatin, and a track structure defined by the radial distribution of energy deposition from an incident ion, to fit the PFGE data for fragment-size distribution after high-dose irradiation. These fits determined the unknown parameters of the model, enabling the extrapolation of data for high-dose irradiation to the low doses that are relevant for NASA space radiation research. The randomly-located-clusters formalism was used to speed the simulations. It was shown that only one adjustable parameter, Q, the track efficiency parameter, was necessary to predict DNA fragment sizes for wide ranges of doses. This parameter was determined for a variety of radiations and LETs and was used to predict the DSB patterns at the HPRT locus of the human X chromosome after low-dose irradiation. It was found that high-LET radiation would be more likely than low-LET radiation to induce additional DSBs within the HPRT gene if this gene already contained one DSB.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Low Temperature Rhombohedral Single Crystal SiGe Epitaxy on c-plane Sapphire

Current best practice in epitaxial growth of rhombohedral SiGe onto (0001) sapphire (Al2O3) substrate surfaces requires extreme conditions to grow a single crystal SiGe film. Previous models described the sapphire surface reconstruction as the overriding factor in rhombohedral epitaxy, requiring a high temperature Al-terminated surface for high quality films. Temperatures in the 850-1100 C range were thought to be necessary to get SiGe to form coherent atomic matching between the (111) SiGe plane and the (0001) sapphire surface. Such fabrication conditions are difficult and uneconomical, hindering widespread application. This work proposes an alternative model that considers the bulk sapphire structure and determines how the SiGe film nucleates and grows. Accounting for thermal expansion effects, calculations using this new model show that both pure Ge and SiGe can form single crystal films in the 450-550 C temperature range. Experimental results confirm these predictions, where x-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy show the films fabricated at low temperature rival the high temperature films in crystallographic and surface quality. Finally, an explanation is provided for why films of comparable high quality can be produced in either temperature range.

Duzik, Adam J.↗

Application of two creep fatigue life models for the prediction of elevated temperature crack initiation of a nickel base alloy

Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and Total Strain-Strain Range Partitioning (TS-SRP) models for predicting the creep-fatigue crack initiation life of high temperature alloys are presented. The models differ in their fundamental assumptions regarding the controlling parameters for fatigue crack initiation and in the amount of data required to determine model constants. The CDA model represents a ductility exhaustion approach and uses stress quantities to calculate the cyclic fatigue damage. The TS-SRP model is based on the use of total mechanical strain and earlier concepts of the Strain Range Partitioning Method. Both models were applied to a well controlled fatigue data set at a high temperature nickel base alloy, B1900 + Hf, tested at 1600 F and 1800 F. The tests were divided into a baseline data set required to determine model constants and a verification data set for evaluation of the predictive capability of the models. Both models correlated the baseline data set to within factors of two in life, and predicted the verification data set to within a factor of three or better. In addition, sample calculations to demonstrate the application of each model and discusions of the predictive capabilities and areas requiring further development are presented.

Moreno, V.↗

Effect of net direct current on the properties of radio frequency sheaths: simulation and cross-code comparison

In order to understand, predict and control ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) interactions with tokamak scrape-off layer plasmas, computational tools which can model radio frequency (RF) sheaths are needed. In particular, models for the effective surface impedance and DC rectified sheath potentials may be coupled with full wave RF simulation codes to predict self-consistent wave fields near surfaces and the resulting power dissipation and plasma-material interactions from ion sputtering. In this study, previous work assuming zero net DC current flow through the sheath is generalized to allow the surface to collect net positive or negative current, as is often observed in experiments. The waveforms, DC potential and RF admittance are investigated by means of analytical theory, nonlinear fluid and particle-in-cell (PIC) codes. Cross-code comparisons provide detailed model verification and elucidate the roles of ion and electron kinetics. When the sheath draws negative (positive) DC current, the voltage rectification is reduced (increased) compared with the zero-current case, and the magnitude of both the real and imaginary parts of the admittance are increased (reduced). In conclusion, a previous four-input parametrization of the sheath rectification and admittance properties is generalized to include a fifth parameter describing the DC sheath current.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A model of the 8-25 micron point source infrared sky

A model is developed that permits the representation of the Galactic disk and bulge, the molecular ring, extragalactic sky, and other Galactic structures in terms of the IR point-source sky. Full characterization is achieved for up to 87 types of Galactic sources in terms of scale heights and absolute magnitudes, and the model is guided by a parallel Monte Carlo simulation of the Galaxy at 12 microns. The model predicts differential and cumulative IR source counts for all bandpasses in the IRAS ranges and can therefore be employed to predict the character of the point-source sky related to IR space observations.

Wainscoat, Richard J.↗

Ground-testing of One-way Ranging from a Lunar Beacon Demonstrator Payload (Lunar Node -1)

Similar to lighthouses providing navigation aids and awareness to ships sailing along the coast, in-situ navigation beacons can be used to provide redundancy, awareness, and improved onboard position knowledge for vehicles operating in and around the lunar sphere of influence. Lunar Node - 1 is a radio frequency navigation beacon that is manifested on Intuitive Machines' NOVA-C lunar lander flight in 2022 for operation during cruise and from a mid-latitude landing location. This payload utilizes commercial components developed for Low Earth Orbit applications and packages them into an integrated package to provide a navigation reference signal as part of a large lunar-centric navigation network. As part of its operations, Deep Space Network ground stations will operate as the notional "user" of this service, allowing for performance characterization, calibration, and operation of the beacon payload. This paper provides an overview of the payload, how its fits into a large concept of operations, and ground testing results. A specific focus is on ground testing of the payload with DSN ground receivers as part of RF Compatibility Testing. A primary goal of this testing was to characterize a pseudo-noise ranging code sequence generated by the payload. The results in this paper define the testing sequence, unique operational constraints with two-way ranging ground equipment, and applications of the ground-derived error model to predicted in-flight performance of the ranging code.

Evan Anzalone↗

Ground-Testing of One-Way Ranging from a Lunar Beacon Demonstrator Payload (Lunar Node -1)

Similar to lighthouses providing navigation aids and awareness to ships sailing along the coast, in-situ navigation beacons can be used to provide redundancy, awareness, and improved onboard position knowledge for vehicles operating in and around the lunar sphere of influence. Lunar Node - 1 is a radio frequency navigation beacon that is manifested on Intuitive Machines' NOVA-C lunar lander flight in 2022 for operation during cruise and from a mid-latitude landing location. This payload utilizes commercial components developed for Low Earth Orbit applications and packages them into an integrated package to provide a navigation reference signal as part of a large lunar-centric navigation network. As part of its operations, Deep Space Network ground stations will operate as the notional "user" of this service, allowing for performance characterization, calibration, and operation of the beacon payload. This paper provides an overview of the payload, how its fits into a large concept of operations, and ground testing results. A specific focus is on ground testing of the payload with DSN ground receivers as part of Radio Frequency (RF) Compatibility Testing. A primary goal of this testing was to characterize a pseudo-noise ranging code sequence generated by the payload. The results in this paper define the testing sequence, unique operational constraints with two-way ranging ground equipment, and applications of the ground-derived error model to predicted in-flight performance of the ranging code.

Evan J Anzalone↗

Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations of the tokamak plasma boundary for model predictive control using SINDy *

Abstract Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations have been used to identify reduced models with the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) method and develop model-predictive control of the boundary plasma state using main ion gas puff actuation. A series of gas actuation sequences are input into SOLPS-ITER to produce a dynamic response in upstream and divertor plasma quantities. The SINDy method is applied to identify reduced linear and nonlinear models for the electron density at the outboard midplane n e , s e p O M P and the electron temperature at the outer divertor T e , s e p d i v . Note that T e , s e p d i v is not necessarily the peak value of T e along the divertor. The identified reduced models are interpretable by construction (i.e. not black box), and have the form of coupled ordinary differential equations. Despite significant noise in T e , s e p d i v , the reduced models can be used to predict the response over a range of actuation levels to a maximum deviation of 0.5% in n e , s e p O M P and 5%–10% in T e , s e p d i v for the cases considered. Model retraining using time history data triggered by a preset error threshold is also demonstrated. A model predictive control strategy for nonlinear models is developed and used to perform feedback control of a SOLPS-ITER simulation to produce a setpoint trajectory in n e , s e p O M P using the integrated plasma simulator framework. The developed techniques are general and can be applied to time-dependent data from other boundary simulations or experimental data. Ongoing work is extending the approach to model identification and control for divertor detachment, which will present transient nonlinear behavior from impurity seeding, including realistic latency and synthetic diagnostic signals derived from the full SOLPS-ITER output.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years. The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Niño–Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months. A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for the decay of the Higgs boson to a pair of light pseudoscalar bosons in the final state with four bottom quarks in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{\textrm{s}} $ = 13 TeV

A search is presented for the decay of the 125 GeV Higgs boson (H) to a pair of new light pseudoscalar bosons (a), followed by the prompt decay of each a boson to a bottom quark-antiquark pair, $ \textrm{H}\to \textrm{aa}\to \textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}} $. The analysis is performed using a data sample of proton-proton collisions collected with the CMS detector at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. To reduce the background from standard model processes, the search requires the Higgs boson to be produced in association with a leptonically decaying W or Z boson. The analysis probes the production of new light bosons in a 15 < m$_{a}$ < 60 GeV mass range. Assuming the standard model predictions for the Higgs boson production cross sections for pp → WH and ZH, model independent upper limits at 95% confidence level are derived for the branching fraction $ \mathcal{B}\left(\textrm{H}\to \textrm{aa}\to \textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}\right) $. The combined WH and ZH observed upper limit on the branching fraction ranges from 1.10 for m$_{a}$ = 20 GeV to 0.36 for m$_{a}$ = 60 GeV, complementing other measurements in the μμττ, ττττ and bbℓℓ (ℓ = μ, τ) channels.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Fringing Analysis and Simulation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time

Abstract The presence of fringing in astronomical Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) images will have an impact on photometric quality and measurements. Yet its impact on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has not been fully studied. We present a detailed study on fringing for CCDs already implemented on the Rubin Observatory LSST Camera’s focal plane. After making physical measurements and knowing the compositions, we developed a model for the e2v CCDs. We present a method to fit for the internal height variation of the epoxy layer within the sensors based on fringing measurements in a laboratory setting. This method is generic enough that it can be easily modified to work for other CCDs. Using the derived fringing model, we successfully reproduce comparable fringing amplitudes that match the observed levels in images taken by existing telescopes with different optical designs. This model is then used to forecast the expected level of fringing in a single LSST y -band sky background exposure with Rubin telescope optics in the presence of a realistic time-varying sky spectrum. The predicted fringing amplitude in LSST images ranges from 0.04% to 0.2% depending on the location of a CCD on the focal plane. We find that the predicted variation in surface brightness caused by fringing in LSST y -band sky background images is about 0.6 μ Jy arcsec − 2 , which is 40 times larger than the current measurement error. We conclude that it is necessary to include fringing correction in the Rubin’s LSST image processing pipeline.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗

New Mechanism for Yield Point Phenomena

Yield point phenomena (YPP) are widely attributed to discrete dislocation locking by solute atmospheres. An alternate YPP mechanism was recently suggested by simulations of Ta single crystals without any influence of solutes or discrete dislocations. The general meso-scale (GM) simulations consist of crystal plasticity (CP) plus accounting for internal stresses of geometrically necessary dislocation content. GM predicted the YPP while CP did not, suggesting a novel internal stress mechanism. The predicted YPP varied with crystal orientation and boundary conditions, contrary to expectations for a solute mechanism. The internal stress mechanism was probed by experimentally deforming oligocrystal Ta samples and comparing the results with independent GM simulations. Strain distributions of the experiments were observed with high-resolution digital image correlation. A YPP stress–strain response occurred in the 0–2% strain range in agreement with GM predictions. Shear bands appeared concurrent with the YPP stress–strain perturbation in agreement with GM predictions. At higher strains, the shear bands grew at progressively slower rates in agreement with GM predictions. It was concluded that the internal stress mechanism can account for the existence of YPP in a wide variety of materials including ones where interstitial-dislocation interactions and dislocation transient avalanches are improbable. Furthermore, the internal stress mechanism is a CP analog of various micro-scale mechanisms of discrete dislocations such as pile-up or bow-out. It may operate concurrently with strain aging, or either mechanism may operate alone. A suggestion was made for a future experiment to answer this question.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of Dry Cooler Air-Side Performance on a sCO2 Power Cycle for a CSP Application

Uncertainty around the design and control of the supercritical CO2 power cycle must be reduced before this technology can be implemented for large-scale grid support. To better understand the day-to-day performance of an sCO2 cycle, off-design performance calculations must be included for all power block components, and performance assumptions must be removed. This study has expanded the modeled scope to include the air-side performance for the dry cooler and has incorporated discretized heat transfer calculations for both streams through the pre-cooler to better predict off-design performance. This study considered a recompression Brayton cycle in a concentrating solar power application. The cycle model utilized fixed sCO2 turbomachinery maps for the main compressor, recompressor, and expander operating to supply approximately 10 MW gross at the design point. Fixed vendor-supplied fan curves were used to calculate the air-side performance of the dry cooler. The primary heater was modeled considering both the sCO2 and heat transfer fluid streams. Off-design performance was predicted for an ambient temperature range of 0-55℃, a HTF temperature range of 705-735℃, and a HTF mass flow range of 50-105% of the design point value. To understand the importance of modeling the air-side performance, the cycle off-design performance was also calculated using a constant CO2 outlet temperature assumption and a constant approach temperature assumption for the dry cooler. Results show that using these assumptions can significantly alter the power output and cycle efficiency predictions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Experiment and analysis of directional effects on radiant heat transfer.

Critical examination of the validity of the commonly used simplified models for predicting local and overall radiant heat interchange among real surfaces. The spectral local irradiation was measured at wavelengths of 3.08 and 4.51 microns in a configuration consisting of three plane parallel surfaces of finite extent. The test surfaces were gold with mechanical roughness and temperature varying from 0.02 to 7.1 microns and 77 to 760 K, respectively. Comparisons between experimental data and predictions for six different models ranging from the simple diffuse to the most detailed diffuse-plus-specular-directional-property model with specular component calculated according to Beckmann are presented. It is shown that the calculation of the overall irradiation using appropriate constant-property models agrees well with the experimental data to within combined experimental and analytical uncertainty. In general, it is concluded that for accurate prediction of local irradiation the directional characteristics of the surfaces must be considered.

Toor, J. S.↗

Validation of engineering methods for predicting hypersonic vehicle controls forces and moments

This work examines the ability of the aerodynamic analysis methods contained in an industry standard conceptual design code, the Aerodynamic Preliminary Analysis System (APAS II), to estimate the forces and moments generated through control surface deflections from low subsonic to high hypersonic speeds. Predicted control forces and moments generated by various control effectors are compared with previously published wind-tunnel and flight-test data for three vehicles: the North American X-15, a hypersonic research airplane concept, and the Space Shuttle Orbiter. Qualitative summaries of the results are given for each force and moment coefficient and each control derivative in the various speed ranges. Results show that all predictions of longitudinal stability and control derivatives are acceptable for use at the conceptual design stage.

Maughmer, M.↗