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At least 793 records · Page 44

COWALKER:EFFECTIVE TRANSPORT PROPERTIES OF COMPOSITE MATERIALS

SF-23-026 This software computes effective transport properties of composite materials involving fibers and nanoparticles using a random-walk algorithm that efficiently scales to an arbitrary number of processes and cores. Effective transport properties (thermal, electrical) are key to bridge the microstructure of complex materials with its macroscopic behavior. Traditional approaches either use effective medium approximations (closed mathematical expressions that are approximation for certain conditions) or continuum simulation models such as finite element or finite volume, which require the generation of a mesh for each configuration explored. cowalker leverages the equivalence between laplacian or heat equation-based models and random walks to compute the asymptotic transport properties from an ensemble of first sojourn times of a random walker moving through the composite material. This allows us to directly define a composite material as a collection of particles and use algorithms developed for molecular dynamics to quickly compute the intersection of the walker with the different interfaces in the material. cowalker is developed in C++, and it relies on the GNU Scientific Library for random generation. cowalker is currently delivered as source code, so the GSL library is not included in cowalker's distribution. A more userfriendly version, cowalker.jl is currently in development and will be released as part of cowalker.

YANGUAS-GIL, ANGEL↗

Automatic Classification of Biological Targets in a Tidal Channel Using a Multibeam Sonar

Multibeam sonars are widely used for environmental monitoring of fauna at marine renewable energy sites. However, they can rapidly accrue vast volumes of data, which poses a challenge for data processing. Here, using data from a deployment in a tidal channel with peak currents of 1–2 m s –1 , we demonstrate the data-reduction benefits of real-time automatic classification of targets detected and tracked in multibeam sonar data. First, we evaluate classification capabilities for three machine learning algorithms: random forests, support vector machines, and k-nearest neighbors. For each algorithm, a hill-climbing search optimizes a set of hand-engineered attributes that describe tracked targets. Here, the random forest algorithm is found to be most effective—in postprocessing, discriminating between biological and nonbiological targets with a recall rate of 0.97 and a precision of 0.60. In addition, 89% of biological targets are correctly classified as either seals, diving birds, fish schools, or small targets. Model dependence on the volume of training data is evaluated. Second, a real-time implementation of the model is shown to distinguish between biological targets and nonbiological targets with nearly the same performance as in postprocessing. From this, we make general recommendations for implementing real-time classification of biological targets in multibeam sonar data and the transferability of trained models.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

ORNL_AISD_NiPt

This dataset describes the nickel-platinum (NiPt) solid solution binary alloy, where the two constituent elements nickel (Ni) and platinum (Pt) are randomly placed on the face centered cubic (FCC) crystal structure, with the lattice constant of 3.840 angstroms. The dataset comprises data for three different sizes of the crystal structure: 256 atoms, 864 atoms, and 2,048 atoms, each of which contains 1900 configurations. For each size of the crystal structure, the data set was generated for concentrations ranging from 0at% of Pt to 100at% of Pt in the NiPt binary system, with increasing the concentration of Pt in the system every 5at%. For each one of the chemical compositions, 100 random configurations were generated, each with a different random seed. Each of the output files contains the mass, type, atomic coordinates, energy per atom, and forces in x, y, and z directions respectively. For each atomic configuration, the output was collected every 150 steps during the minimization stage and every 1000 steps during the replica exchange stage. Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) [1], which is a molecular dynamics code, was used to generate data for NiPt alloy. The simulation used the interatomic potential for NiPt binary system MEAM_LAMMPS_KimSeolJi_2017_PtNi__MO_020840179467_001 [3] from the OpenKIM library (Open Knowledgebase of Interatomic Models) [2]. This potential was developed based on the second nearest-neighbor modified embedded-atom method (2NN MEAM). The simulation process begins with the generation of the random NiPt structure and follows with the short minimization and replica exchange simulation. The minimization procedure adjusts atomic coordinates and performs energy minimization, which typically leads to a local potential energy minimum. The method used for the minimization was the conjugate gradient algorithm. A short replica exchange (parallel tempering) simulation involves four replicas (ensembles) of a system and follows the minimization stage. Multiple snapshots of the configuration were collected during the minimization and replica exchange stages. NiPt alloy is interesting due to its magnetic and charge transfer properties [4]. The data is provided in three compressed zipped folders: atoms256.zip, atoms864.zip, atoms2048.zip Each zipped folder contains the data that describes crystals of size 256 atoms, 864 atoms, and 2,048 atoms respectively. Each one of the three zipped folders contains the data structured in the following way: -Ni_ground_state.cfg --> atomic configuration for the pure nickel -Pt_ground_state.cfg --> atomic configuration for the pure platinum -Pt#_filtered --> folders containing atomic configurations for #at% concentration of platinum. The folder contains 100 atomic configurations, each saved in a subfolder. Each subfolder named config* is associated with a specific atomic configuration. Each of these subfolders contains files with .cfg format, corresponding to outputs for each atomic configuration The total number of atomic configurations contained in atoms256.zip is 65,046. The total number of atomic configurations contained in atoms864.zip is 63,936. The total number of atomic configurations contained in atoms2048.zip is 61,997. The total number of atomic configurations spanned by the entire dataset is 190,979. References [1] https://www.lammps.org/ [2] https://openkim.org/ [3] https://openkim.org/id/MEAM_LAMMPS_KimSeolJi_2017_PtNi__MO_020840179467_001 [4] El-Gendy, Ahmed A. and Hampel, Silke and Büccchner, Bernd and Klingeler, Rüdiger, Tuneable magnetic properties of carbon-shielded NiPt-nanoalloys, RSC Adv., volume 6, issue 57, pages 52427-52433, 2016, The Royal Society of Chemistry, doi:10.1039/C6RA05910D

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ORNL_AISD_NiPt_108atoms

This dataset describes the nickel-platinum (NiPt) solid solution binary alloy, where the two constituent elements nickel (Ni) and platinum (Pt) are randomly placed on the face centered cubic (FCC) crystal structure, with the lattice constant of 3.840 angstroms. The dataset comprises data for crystal structures with 108 atoms with 1,900 configurations. The data set was generated for concentrations ranging from 0at% of Pt to 100at% of Pt in the NiPt binary system, with increasing the concentration of Pt in the system every 5at%. For each one of the chemical compositions, 100 random configurations were generated, each with a different random seed. Each of the output files contains the mass, type, atomic coordinates, energy per atom, and forces in x, y, and z directions respectively. For each atomic configuration, the output was collected every 150 steps during the minimization stage and every 1000 steps during the replica exchange stage. Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) [1], which is a molecular dynamics code, was used to generate data for NiPt alloy. The simulation used the interatomic potential for NiPt binary system 'MEAM_LAMMPS_KimSeolJi_2017_PtNi__MO_020840179467_001' [3] from the OpenKIM library (Open Knowledgebase of Interatomic Models) [2]. This potential was developed based on the second nearest-neighbor modified embedded-atom method (2NN MEAM). The simulation process begins with the generation of the random NiPt structure and follows with the short minimization and replica exchange simulation. The minimization procedure adjusts atomic coordinates and performs energy minimization, which typically leads to a local potential energy minimum. The method used for the minimization was the conjugate gradient algorithm. A short replica exchange (parallel tempering) simulation involves four replicas (ensembles) of a system and follows the minimization stage. Multiple snapshots of the configuration were collected during the minimization and replica exchange stages. NiPt alloy is interesting due to its magnetic and charge transfer properties [4]. The data is provided in a compressed zipped folders atoms108.zip. The zipped folder contains the data structured in the following way: - Ni_ground_state.cfg --> atomic configuration for the pure nickel - Pt_ground_state.cfg --> atomic configuration for the pure platinum - Pt#_filtered --> folders containing atomic configurations for #at% concentration of platinum. The folder contains 100 atomic configurations, each saved in a subfolder - Each subfolder named config* is associated with a specific atomic configuration. Each of these subfolders contains files with .cfg format, corresponding to outputs for each atomic configuration The total number of atomic configurations contained in atoms108.zip is 66,132. This dataset is an extension to the dataset ORNL_AISD_NiPt [5] that has been previously released with crystal structures of 256 atoms, 864 atoms, and 2,048 atoms, with the same methodology for data collection. References [1] https://www.lammps.org/ [2] https://openkim.org/ [3] https://openkim.org/id/MEAM_LAMMPS_KimSeolJi_2017_PtNi__MO_020840179467_001 [4] El-Gendy, Ahmed A. and Hampel, Silke and Büchner, Bernd and Klingeler, Rüdiger, Tuneable magnetic properties of carbon-shielded NiPt-nanoalloys, RSC Adv., volume 6, issue 57, pages 52427-52433, 2016, The Royal Society of Chemistry, doi:10.1039/C6RA05910D [5] M. Karabin, M. Lupo Pasini, and M. Eisenbach. ORNL_AISD_NiPt. United States: N. p., 2023. Web. doi:10.13139/OLCF/1958172.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spatio-Temporal Surrogates for Interaction of a Jet with High Explosives: Part II - Clustering Extremely High-Dimensional Grid-Based Data

Building an accurate surrogate model for the spatio-temporal outputs of a computer simulation is a challenging task. A simple approach to improve the accuracy of the surrogate is to cluster the outputs based on similarity and build a separate surrogate model for each cluster. This clustering is relatively straightforward when the output at each time step is of moderate size. However, when the spatial domain is represented by a large number of grid points, numbering in the millions, the clustering of the data becomes more challenging. In this report, we consider output data from simulations of a jet interacting with high explosives. These data are available on spatial domains of different sizes, at grid points that vary in their spatial coordinates, and in a format that distributes the output across multiple files at each time step of the simulation. We first describe how we bring these data into a consistent format prior to clustering. Borrowing the idea of random projections from data mining, we reduce the dimension of our data by a factor of thousand, making it possible to use the iterative k-means method for clustering. We show how we can use the randomness of both the random projections, and the choice of initial centroids in k-means clustering, to determine the number of clusters in our data set. Our approach makes clustering of extremely high dimensional data tractable, generating meaningful cluster assignments for our problem, despite the approximation introduced in the random projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

Interpreting High-resolution Spectroscopy of Exoplanets using Cross-correlations and Supervised Machine Learning

We present a new method for performing atmospheric retrieval on ground-based, high-resolution data of exoplanets. Our method combines cross-correlation functions with a random forest, a supervised machine-learning technique, to overcome challenges associated with high-resolution data. A series of cross-correlation functions are concatenated to give a “CCF-sequence” for each model atmosphere, which reduces the dimensionality by a factor of ∼100. The random forest, trained on our grid of ∼65,000 models, provides a likelihood-free method of retrieval. The precomputed grid spans 31 values of both temperature and metallicity, and incorporates a realistic noise model. We apply our method to HARPS-N observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-9b and obtain a metallicity consistent with solar (logM = − 0.2 ± 0.2). Our retrieved transit chord temperature (T=6000{sub −200}{sup +0}K) is unreliable as strong ion lines lie outside of the extent of the training set, which we interpret as being indicative of missing physics in our atmospheric model. We compare our method to traditional nested sampling, as well as other machine-learning techniques, such as Bayesian neural networks. We demonstrate that the likelihood-free aspect of the random forest makes it more robust than nested sampling to different error distributions, and that the Bayesian neural network we tested is unable to reproduce complex posteriors. We also address the claim in Cobb et al. 2019 that our random forest retrieval technique can be overconfident but incorrect. We show that this is an artifact of the training set, rather than of the machine-learning method, and that the posteriors agree with those obtained using nested sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disorder Enhanced Thermalization in Interacting Many-Particle System

We introduce an extension of the non-equilibrium dynamical mean field theory to incorporate the effects of static random disorder in the dynamics of a many-particle system by integrating out different disorder configurations resulting in an effective time-dependent density-density interaction. We use this method to study the non-equilibrium transient dynamics of a system described by the Fermi Anderson-Hubbard model following an interaction and disorder quench. The method recovers the solution of the disorder-free case for which the system exhibits qualitatively distinct dynamical behaviors in the weak-coupling (prethermalization) and strong-coupling regimes (collapse-and-revival oscillations). However, we find that weak random disorder promotes thermalization. In the weak coupling regime, the jump in the quasiparticle weight in the prethermal regime is suppressed by random disorder while in the strong-coupling regime, random disorder reduces the amplitude of the quasiparticle weight oscillations. These results highlight the importance of disorder in the dynamics of realistic many-particle systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Diffusion Codes: Self-Correction from Small(er)-Set Expansion with Tunable Non-locality

Optimal constructions of classical LDPC codes can be obtained by choosing the Tanner graph uniformly at random among biregular graphs. We introduce a class of codes that we call ``diffusion codes'', defined by placing each edge connecting bits and checks on some graph, and acting on that graph with a random SWAP network. By tuning the depth of the SWAP network, we can tune a tradeoff between the amount of randomness -- and hence the optimality of code parameters -- and locality with respect to the underlying graph. For diffusion codes defined on the cycle graph, if the SWAP network has depth $\sim Tn$ with $T> n^{2β}$ for arbitrary $β>0$, then we prove that almost surely the Tanner graph is a lossless ``smaller set'' vertex expander for small sets up size $δ\sim \sqrt T \sim n^β$, with bounded bit and check degree. At the same time, the geometric size of the largest stabilizer is bounded by $\sqrt T$ in graph distance. We argue, based on physical intuition, that this result should hold more generally on arbitrary graphs. By taking hypergraph products of these classical codes we obtain quantum LDPC codes defined on the torus with smaller-set boundary and co-boundary expansion and the same expansion/locality tradeoffs as for the classical codes. These codes are self-correcting and admit single-shot decoding, while having the geometric size of the stabilizer growing as an arbitrarily small power law. Our proof technique establishes mixing of a random SWAP network on small subsystems at times scaling with only the subsystem size, which may be of independent interest.

Combinatorics (math.CO)↗

Demystifying the Resilience of Large Language Models: An End-to-End Perspective

Deep neural networks are known to be resilient to random bit-wise faults in their parameters. However, this resilience has primarily been established through evaluations of classification models. The extent to which this claim holds for large-language models remains underexplored. In this work, we conduct an extensive measurement study on the impact of random bitwise faults in commercial-scale language models. We perform an in-depth analysis of the resulting generation outputs. We first expose that these language models are not truly resilient to random bit-flips. While aggregate metrics such as accuracy may suggest resilience, an in-depth inspection of the generated outputs shows significant degradation in text quality. Our analysis also shows that tasks requiring more complex reasoning suffer more from performance and quality degradation. Moreover, we extend our analysis to models with augmented reasoning capabilities, such as Chain-of-Thought or Mixture of Experts architectures, and characterize their failure scenarios under random bit-flips.

Sun, Yu↗

Accuracy of predictions made by machine learned models for biocrude yields obtained from hydrothermal liquefaction of organic wastes

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) has potential for converting abundant wet organic wastes into renewable fuels. Because HTL consists of a complex reaction network, deterministic, physics-based prediction of its biocrude yield is prohibitively difficult. Data-driven methods provide an alternative to the physics-based approach; however, rigorous testing must be performed to ensure the accuracy of predictions made by data-driven methods. To this end, a data set was assembled consisting of 570 data points appearing in the open literature. The data set was divided into training, validation, and test sub-sets and used for evaluating different machine learning regression approaches to predict biocrude yield. Among the tested algorithms, Random Forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) predicted biocrude yields in a test set that had not been used for training with the greatest accuracy, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 8.34 and 8.57, respectively. Further refinement of the Random Forest model reduced its RMSE to 8.07. In comparison, predictions of a series of literature models resulted in RMSE ranging from 9.16 in the most accurate case to 27.6 in the least accurate; most literature models yielded RMSE values > 10. Using biocrude yield predictions from the most accurate Random Forest model and a probabilistic economic analysis found that the model accuracy is sufficient to prioritize allocation of resources based on projected minimum fuel selling price. In our report the models and analysis represent a major advance in the ability to use readily available data to predict biocrude yields on new feedstocks that have not previously been studied.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Local structure graph models with higher-order dependence

Local structure graph models (LSGMs) describe random graphs and networks as a Markov random field (MRF)—each graph edge has a specified conditional distribution dependent on explicit neighbourhoods of other graph edges. Centered parameterizations of LSGMs allow for direct control and interpretation of parameters for large- and small-scale structures (e.g., marginal means vs. dependence). Here, we extend this parameterization to account for triples of dependent edges and illustrate the importance of centered parameterizations for incorporating covariates and interpreting parameters. Using a MRF framework, common exponential random graph models are also shown to induce conditional distributions without centered parameterizations and thereby have undesirable features. This work attempts to advance graph models through conditional model specifications with modern parameterizations, covariates and higher-order dependencies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis and prediction of intersection traffic violations using automated enforcement system data

We report that the automated enforcement system (AES) is an effective way of supplementing traditional traffic enforcement, and the traffic violation data from AES can also be effectively used for safety research. In this study, traffic violation data were used to analyze the influencing factors associated with traffic violations and to predict the probability of violations at intersections. The potential factors influencing violations include 24 independent factors related to time, space, traffic and weather. Results from a logistic model showed that the midday period, weekends, residential districts, collector roads, congested traffic conditions, high traffic flow, lower wind speed and low temperature would increase the probability of traffic violations. The probability of violations was predicted by the random forest algorithm, which was proven to be the best traffic violation prediction model among logistic regression, Gaussian naive Bayes, and support vector machine. Moreover, the proximity weighted synthetic oversampling technique (ProWSyn) method was applied to reduce the impact of the imbalance ratio (IR) and improve the model’s prediction performance. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and Precision-Recall (PR) curves illustrated that the random forest algorithm using oversampling data had the best classifier prediction performance than undersampling data. The area under curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) error with IR = 1 reached 0.914 and 0.0787, which showed the better performance of the random forest algorithm using ProWSyn in dealing with imbalanced traffic violation data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A chemistry-informed hybrid machine learning approach to predict metal adsorption onto mineral surfaces

Historically, surface complexation model (SCM) constants and distribution coefficients (K d ) have been employed to quantify mineral-based retardation effects controlling the fate of metals in subsurface geologic systems. Our recent SCM development workflow, based on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange (L-SCIE) database, illustrated a community FAIR data approach to SCM development by predicting uranium(VI)-quartz adsorption for a large number of literature-mined data. Here, we present an alternative hybrid machine learning (ML) approach that shows promise in achieving equivalent high-quality predictions compared to traditional surface complexation models. At its core, the hybrid random forest (RF) ML approach is motivated by the proliferation of incongruent SCMs in the literature that limit their applicability in reactive transport models. Our hybrid ML approach implements PHREEQC-based aqueous speciation calculations; values from these simulations are automatically used as input features for a random forest (RF) algorithm to quantify adsorption and avoid SCM modeling constraints entirely. Named the LLNL Speciation Updated Random Forest (L-SURF) model, this hybrid approach is shown to have applicability to U(VI) sorption cases driven by both ion-exchange and surface complexation, as is shown for quartz and montmorillonite cases. The approach can be applied to reactive transport modeling and may provide an alternative to the costly development of self-consistent SCM reaction databases.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Multiscale Concurrent Atomistic-Continuum (CAC) modeling of multicomponent alloys

We report strengthening in complex multicomponent systems such as solid solution alloys is controlled primarily by the dynamic interactions between dislocation lines and heterogeneously distributed solute species. Modeling of extended defect length scales in such multicomponent systems becomes prohibitively expensive, motivating the development of reduced order approaches. This work explores the application of the Concurrent Atomistic-Continuum (CAC) method to model dislocation mobility in random alloys at extended length scales. By employing recently developed average-atom interatomic potentials, the average “bulk” material response in coarse-grained regions interacts with true random solute species in the atomistic-scale domain. We demonstrate that spurious stresses in domain resolution transition regions are eliminated entirely due to the CAC formulation. Simultaneously, the key details of local stress fluctuation due to randomness in the dislocation core region are captured, and fluctuating stress smoothly decays to the long-range dislocation stress field response. Dislocation mobility calculations, for line lengths over 400 nm, are computed as a function of alloy composition in the model FeNiCr system and compared to full molecular dynamics (MD). The results capture the composition-dependent trends, while reducing degrees of freedom by nearly 40%. This approach can be readily extended to any system described by an EAM potential and facilitates the study of large-scale defect dynamics in complex solute environments to support computational alloy design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Graph-based design of irregular metamaterials

In the field of metamaterial research, random structures offer a novel and less conventional approach compared to traditional periodic designs. Designing random metamaterials is challenging when it comes to ensuring intercon- nectivity, which is essential for manufacturability. This study introduces an innovative framework for generating random metamaterials using graph al- gorithms, ensuring connectivity and adaptability across various base shapes, including cylinders, triangles, pyramids, and cubes. By employing graph algorithms, our framework enhances the intuitiveness and efficiency of de- sign representation and manipulation, streamlining the design process. The framework generates families of designs that exhibit a wide range of prop- erty magnitudes that can be adjusted intuitively by modifying the input parameters. The rapid design process allows many designs to be generated, offering the user a multitude of solutions around the target property range. The designs can be effectively implemented in various fields and subjected to diverse analytical studies, including static, dynamic, and eigenfrequency assessments. We illustrate computational results for two key properties (stiff- ness and acoustic impedance), showcasing the method’s effectiveness through examples ranging from rod-based to cube-based designs. Here, the framework not only advances metamaterial research but also creates new opportunities for innovation in fields requiring customized material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning From User Behavior: A Survey-Assist Algorithm for Longitudinal Mobility Data Collection

GPS-based travel surveys are widely used in mobility studies to gather crucial qualitative data, like purpose, transportation mode and replaced mode. However, survey response still poses a burden to users, especially in long-term mobility studies, leading to response fatigue. We explore a survey-assist strategy to ease this burden by a novel, user-level modeling approach that leverages past responses from each user to predict responses for new trips, without relying on external data sources like GIS data. We investigate three main algorithms for predicting responses: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating responses for similar trips, (ii) using random forest classification, and (iii) clustering that uses a hybrid algorithm to determine spatial structure, which is then fed as input to a classic random forest classifier. The clustering approach can flexibly predict responses for even complex qualitative survey questions; it achieved F-scores of 65%. The random forest pipeline uses architecture that restricts it to predicting three predetermined survey questions: trip purpose, mode, and replaced mode. However, it achieved F-scores of 78%. While the survey-assist approach has been implemented by several proprietary systems, to our knowledge, this is the first exploration in the academic literature. It follows that this is also the first rigorous evaluation of multiple algorithms that can implement the approach. The evaluation uses a large scale, publicly available, longitudinal dataset consisting of ~ 92k trips from 235 users over a period of roughly one and a half years. With this approach, travel surveys can be pre-filled with the predicted responses for each trip, thus streamlining the survey process for users. Combined with an active learning system that requests user input on low-confidence predictions, models can be updated and improved over time to better support the long-term collection of longitudinal qualitative data.

clustering↗