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Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗

A CubeSat-Payload Radiation-Reliability Assurance Case using Goal Structuring Notation

CubeSats have become an attractive platform for universities, industry, and government space missions because they are cheaper and quicker to develop than full-scale satellites. One way CubeSats keep costs low is by using commercial off-the-shelf parts (COTS) instead of space-qualified parts. Space-qualified parts are often costlier, larger, and consume more power than their commercial counterparts precluding their use within the CubeSat form-factor. Given typical power budgets, monetary budgets, and timelines for CubeSat missions, conventional radiation hardness assurance, like the use of space-qualified parts and radiation testing campaigns of COTS parts, is not practical. Instead, a system-level approach to radiation effects mitigation is needed. In this paper an assurance case for a system-level approach to mitigate radiation effects of a CubeSat science experiment is expressed using Goal Structuring Notation (GSN), a graphical argument standard. The case specifically looks at three main mitigation strategies for the radiation environment: total ionizing dose (TID) screening of parts, detection and recovery from single-event latch-ups (SEL) and single-event functional interrupts (SEFI). The graphical assurance case presented makes a qualitative argument for the radiation reliability of the CubeSat experiment using part and system-level mitigation strategies.

COTS↗

The Effects to Exposure of Simulated Spaceflight Radiation on Behavioral Health of Male and Female Mice

Exposure to space radiation is a principal consideration of spaceflight missions as risk is leveraged as time and dose—both expected to increase with future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Previous mission exposure levels, galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE), have been characterized as increased compared to those natural to Earth and are predicted to cause robust deficits at higher doses and longer durations. The cognitive health implications of this critical difference are understood as risks to mission and crew operations. We examined potential radiation-induced disruptions on brain health through resting-state in-cage behavior. 23–24-week-old male and female mice were exposed to 0 cGy (Sham), 5 cGy, 15 cGy, and 50 cGy via Five-Ion GCR Simulation (H, Si, He, O, Fe) at the NASA Space Radiation Lab in Brookhaven National Labs. Behavioral and cognitive performance were evaluated via frequency/duration of digging, rearing, and grooming within the 72-hour period immediately following irradiation. Additionally, during this time we evaluated nestlet building using a 5-stage Deacon score, rating shredding and shelter assembly of cotton material from untouched (1) to shredded and formed into a crater shape (5). We have observed differences in Deacon score only among the 15 cGy subset. Further comparative performance analysis will be completed evaluating the differences in irradiation effects between male and female mice. These experimental design aspects that allot for gender-inclusivity is supportive of the diversification of future space travel mission plans. Investigating gender differences is an element under our main objective of determining radiation dose-response curves. In brief, these studies identified a space-relevant radiation dose of 15 cGy that that can be utilized for future standardized ground studies on the nervous system.

spaceflight cognition impairment↗

Investigating Biological Responses to Space-like Radiation using the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

As we plan crewed missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, it is essential to understand how persistent exposure to space radiation affects biology. Unlike on the International Space Station, where crew support and sample return are possible, experiments for long-duration missions require autonomous systems with no sample return. Human cells would be ideal biosensors, but limitations in culture methods, extended prelaunch storage, and long flight durations make it very difficult to keep human cells alive. Unlike other model systems, yeast can survive the constraints of long-duration spaceflight. Despite a billion years of evolution separating yeast from humans, we share homology in hundreds of genes important for basic cell function, including responses to DNA damage. Thus, yeast are excellent biosensors for detecting types/extent of damage induced by space radiation. BioSentinel is NASA’s latest biological CubeSat, and first interplanetary space bioscience mission. BioSentinel is manifested on Artemis 1, the first test flight of NASA’s Space Launch System, in the coming year. The BioSensor payload within BioSentinel contains two yeast strains. The wild type serves as a control for health and “normal” DNA damage repair (DDR). The rad51 deletion mutant is defective for DDR and will undergo alterations to growth and metabolism as it accumulates radiation damage. Changes in growth and metabolic activity will be measured using a 3-color LED detection system and the metabolic redox dye alamarBlue®. Preliminary tests indicate a significant change in alamarBlue response to space-like, low-dose ionizing radiation. We will discuss these findings in four parts – Introduction to biological CubeSats and the BioSentinel mission (presented by Sergio Santa Maria), preliminary responses to space-like ionizing radiation (presented here), a deeper dive into tracking metabolic changes after exposure to ionizing radiation (presented by Diana Gentry), and a look into methods for correcting flight optical data (presented by Abbey Kim). This work is funded by NASA’s Advanced Exploration Systems.

CubeSat↗

Less Atmospheric Radiative Heating By Dust Due to the Synergy of Coarser Size and Aspherical Shape

Mineral dust aerosols cool and warm the atmosphere by scattering and absorbing solar (shortwave: SW) and thermal (longwave: LW) radiation. However, significant uncertainties remain in dust radiative effects, largely due to differences in the dust size distribution and spectral optical properties simulated in Earth system models. Dust models typically underestimate the coarse dust load (more than 2.5 µm in diameter) and assume a spherical shape, which leads to an overestimate of the fine dust load (less than 2.5 µm) after the dust emissions in the models are scaled to match observed dust aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (DAOD550). Here, we improve the simulated dust properties with data sets that leverage measurements of size-resolved dust concentration, asphericity factor, and refractive index in a coupled global chemical transport model with a radiative transfer module. After the adjustment of size-resolved dust concentration and spectral optical properties, the global and annual average of DAOD550 from the simulation increases from 0.023 to 0.029 and falls within the range of a semi-observationally based estimate (0.030 ± 0.005). The reduction of fine dust load after the adjustment leads to a reduction of the SW cooling at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). To improve agreement against a semi-observationally based estimate of the radiative effect efficiency at TOA, we find that a less absorptive SW dust refractive index is required for coarser aspherical dust. Thus, only a minor difference is estimated for the net global dust radiative effect at TOA (−0.08 vs. −0.00 W m−2 on a global scale). Conversely, our sensitivity simulations reveal that the surface warming is substantially enhanced near the strong dust source regions (less cooling to −0.23 from −0.60 W m−2 on a global scale). Thus, less atmospheric radiative heating is estimated near the major source regions (less heating to 0.15 from 0.59 W m−2 on a global scale), because of enhanced LW warming at the surface by the synergy of coarser size and aspherical shape.

simulated dust properties↗

Chimeric Mouse Models for Space Radiation Risk Investigations

Assessment of human health risks associated with space radiation exposure is based largely on the knowledge learned from studies in which animals, mostly rodents, are exposed to high-LET radiation on the ground. It has been recognized that translation of animal results to meaningful implications for human disease can be challenging, particularly for certain risk categories such as the high-LET radiation effects in the central nervous system (CNS). Considering limitations in utilizing non-human primates and clinical studies in humans, chimeric animals can potentially bridge the knowledge gap between rodents and humans. In a chimeric animal, a specific organ or a cell type is replaced with respective human cells that are functional. A number of chimeric mouse models have been developed in the medical research community to study human diseases, and some of the models can potentially be used for NASA applications. Here we investigate use of mice engrafted with human hepatocytes, which have been used in studies of genotoxicity from carcinogen exposures, for assessment of space radiation damage. In a pilot study, we use PXB mice whose livers contain >90% human cells and have been found to function nearly identically to human liver tissues. These mice were exposed to gamma rays for investigations of DNA damage, transcriptomics, and histopathological changes in the humanized livers. Results obtained from PXB mice were compared non-engrafted control animals from the same background strain that are exposed to identical conditions. Preliminary data from histopathological analysis suggest chimeric mouse models are suitable for investigations of space radiation risks, as the humanized liver tissue exhibited changes induced by radiation and was markedly distinct from the liver tissue from the control animals (Fox Chase SCID mice).

Radiation effects↗

Chimeric Mouse Models for Space Radiation Risk Investigations

Assessment of human health risks associated with space radiation exposure is based largely on the knowledge learned from studies in which animals, mostly rodents, are exposed to high-LET radiation on the ground. It has been recognized that translation of animal results to meaningful implications for human disease can be challenging, particularly for certain risk categories such as the high-LET radiation effects in the central nervous system (CNS). Considering limitations in utilizing non-human primates and clinical studies in humans, chimeric animals can potentially bridge the knowledge gap between rodents and humans. In a chimeric animal, a specific organ or a cell type is replaced with respective human cells that are functional. A number of chimeric mouse models have been developed in the medical research community to study human diseases, and some of the models can potentially be used for NASA applications. Here we investigate use of mice engrafted with human hepatocytes, which have been used in studies of genotoxicity from carcinogen exposures, for assessment of space radiation damage. In a pilot study, we use PXB mice whose livers contain >90% human cells and have been found to function nearly identically to human liver tissues. These mice were exposed to gamma rays for investigations of DNA damage, transcriptomics, and histopathological changes in the humanized livers. Results obtained from PXB mice were compared non-engrafted control animals from the same background strain that are exposed to identical conditions. Preliminary data from histopathological analysis suggest chimeric mouse models are suitable for investigations of space radiation risks, as the humanized liver tissue exhibited changes induced by radiation and was markedly distinct from the liver tissue from the control animals (Fox Chase SCID mice).

Radiation effects↗

On Computationally Efficient Radiative Transfer Calculations for Three-dimensional Entry Problems

The current work presents an efficient simulation framework for rigorously modeling radiative fields emanating from non-equilibrium planetary entry flows in complex three-dimensional domains. Key to this endeavor is adoption of finite-volume discretization in lieu of brute-force ray tracing. This change in conjunction with mesh sweeping and Lebedev-type quadrature for angular integration allows spatial-angular resolution of radiative transfer to be performed in a computationally tractable manner. Additionally, a new methodology has been established to build standalone reduced-order spectral databases for non-equilibrium radiative properties that can be applied to a broad range of hypersonic planetary entry problems with minimal loss in accuracy. The efficacy of the new framework has been demonstrated on the atomic nitrogen radiative system. The resulting reduced-order model requires three orders-of-magnitude fewer spectral evaluations and results in a 95% decrease in memory footprint. A comparative study for representative forebody and afterbody lines-of-sight from Stardust, FIRE II, and meteor entries into the Earth atmosphere indicates that both total intensity variation and detailed spectra can be retrieved with as few as 625 reduced-order groups (contrasting with the 100,000 frequencies in the original full set model). Similarly, three-dimensional predictions of radiative heating experienced by the Orion forebody are in excellent agreement with legacy radiation solvers while requiring only a sliver (roughly 0.5%) of computing wall time.

3D radiation↗

On Computationally Efficient Radiative Transfer Calculations for Three-Dimensional Entry Problems

The current work presents an efficient simulation framework for rigorously modeling radiative fields emanating from non-equilibrium planetary entry flows in complex three-dimensional domains. Key to this endeavor is adoption of finite-volume discretization in lieu of brute-force ray tracing. This change in conjunction with mesh sweeping and Lebedev-type quadrature for angular integration allows spatial-angular resolution of radiative transfer to be performed in a computationally tractable manner. Additionally, a new methodology has been established to build standalone reduced-order spectral databases for non-equilibrium radiative properties that can be applied to a broad range of hypersonic planetary entry problems with minimal loss in accuracy. The efficacy of the new framework has been demonstrated on the atomic nitrogen radiative system. The resulting reduced-order model requires three orders-of-magnitude fewer spectral evaluations and results in a 95% decrease in memory footprint. A comparative study for representative forebody and afterbody lines-of-sight from Stardust, FIRE II, and meteor entries into the Earth atmosphere indicates that both total intensity variation and detailed spectra can be retrieved with as few as 625 reduced-order groups (contrasting with the 100,000 frequencies in the original full set model). Similarly, three-dimensional predictions of radiative heating experienced by the Orion forebody are in excellent agreement with legacy radiation solvers while requiring only a sliver (roughly 0.5%) of computing wall time.

3D radiation↗

Actively Controlled Louver for Human Spacecraft Radiator Ultraviolet (UV), Dust, and Freeze Protection

This paper examines the use of actively controlled louvers to attenuate UV and dust, as well as mitigate freezing concerns for human spacecraft radiators during Artemis missions. Artemis missions to the lunar orbit or surface will expose the radiators to high energy UV radiation and dust, which will degrade the radiator’s coating emissivity and consequently reduce heat rejection performance. In addition, subfreezing environmental temperatures during transit to lunar orbit and nighttime on lunar south pole can rupture coolant tubes, reduce heat rejection performance, and worst-case scenario result in a Loss of Mission (LOM). Louver technology would be a promising solution to maintaining radiator performance and integrity for Artemis missions, but heritage louvers are passively controlled. This technology needs maturing to active control, or motor actuation, to achieve faster thermal response times. Actively controlled louver design considerations are discussed in this paper. The analysis that follows shows actively controlled louvers can attenuate high energy UV radiation and dust, as well as protect the coolant from freezing.

Louver↗

Actively Controlled Louver for Human Spacecraft Radiator Ultraviolet (UV), Dust, and Freeze Protection

This paper examines the use of actively controlled louvers to attenuate UV and dust, as well as mitigate freezing concerns for human spacecraft radiators during Artemis missions. Artemis missions to the lunar orbit or surface will expose the radiators to high energy UV radiation and dust, which will degrade the radiator’s coating emissivity and consequently reduce heat rejection performance. In addition, subfreezing environmental temperatures during transit to lunar orbit and nighttime on lunar south pole can rupture coolant tubes, reduce heat rejection performance, and worst-case scenario result in a Loss of Mission (LOM). Louver technology would be a promising solution to maintaining radiator performance and integrity for Artemis missions, but heritage louvers are passively controlled. This technology needs maturing to active control, or motor actuation, to achieve faster thermal response times. Actively controlled louver design considerations are discussed in this paper. The analysis that follows shows actively controlled louvers can attenuate high energy UV radiation and dust, as well as protect the coolant from freezing.

Louver↗

Overview of The Inaugural Space Health Impacts for the NASA Experience (SHINE) Training Program - Virtual Space Radiation Curriculum

The Space Radiation Element part of NASA Human Research Program initiated a virtual, annual space radiation curriculum. The SHINE space radiation curriculum aims to educate participants not only in the scientific aspects of space radiation but also in the agency’s risk management strategies. SHINE combines weekly seminars by speakers from NASA, other government agencies, academia, and industry, with networking sessions designed to foster collaboration between participants and interactions with NASA scientists. A total of 59 applications were received from which 25 participants were selected. The 25 participants, with citizenship from a total of 8 countries, are composed of 5 graduate students, 4 postdocs, 11 scientists and 5 professors/medical doctors. Participants have a wide range of expertise including molecular and cellular biology, microbiology, botany, physiology, engineering, physics, aerospace medicine, planetary science, biostatistics, and modeling. The inaugural course ran weekly from February 2023 to August 2023 and was comprised of lectures, less formal coffee hours and office hours. The topics covered ranged from space environments to health effects to granting opportunities. The second annual SHINE training program is scheduled from February to August 2024. In addition, a separate competitive practicum session, to allow participants to gain hands-on radiation experience, will be held Fall 2024 at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL).

SHINE↗

NASA’s Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulator – How we study the effects of space radiation on Earth

Earth’s atmosphere and natural magnetic field do a good job protecting us from space radiation. Space radiation is different from radiation on Earth, which mostly comes from isotopes found in rock and soil or from medical procedures like an Xray. Ionizing space radiation comes from particles ejected from the Sun, or solar particle events, and from supernovae outside our solar system making up a background of galactic cosmic radiation. These particles, representing the elements of the periodic table, have been stripped of their electrons as they are accelerated in interstellar space to almost the speed of light. One of NASA’s biggest challenges is protecting astronauts from these high energy particles of galactic cosmic radiation which can cause cancer and other diseases. To understand the biological damage imparted to living systems and to develop protective countermeasures, NASA has built a galactic cosmic ray simulator on Earth.

Space Exploration Missions↗

RadLab: A Comprehensive Database and Graphical and Programming Interfaces for Biologically Relevant Space Radiation Data

RadLab, a new component of the NASA Open Science Data Repository (OSDR), is a platform built upon a database of radiation data relevant to space biology. RadLab provides visual and programmatic interfaces for interrogation of its database, as well as a submission process for inclusion of data from investigators. The RadLab application programming interface (API) implements a request syntax enabling users to retrieve data filtered by various combinations of parameters (detector type, location, direction, timespan, etc), which are delivered in machine-readable text formats, ready to be ingested by downstream analysis pipelines; while the graphical user interface (GUI) provides easy means to iteratively modify query parameters and incorporates a number of standard analyses and visualizations (time series plots, geospatial visualizations, detector comparison). Investigators from many countries, including US, Russia, Japan, Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, and Italy, have committed to provide data from their instruments located on the ISS; RadLab will also include data from other spacecraft in LEO (e.g., the Space Shuttle, the Mir space station), BLEO (e. g. BioSentinel, Mars Orbiter, among others), and on other celestial bodies (e. g. Chang’e 4, Curiosity). The first release of RadLab has been made available to the public. Once fully operational, RadLab will provide a comprehensive and ever-growing compendium of space radiation data, facilitating straightforward access to multiple types of readings and enabling space biology researchers to perform intercomparisons of detectors and to determine the radiation environment of research missions, both via programmatic retrieval of these data and via the graphical analysis toolkit; as well as a user-friendly submission portal for ingesting data from space agencies and research institutions. Radiation scientists will be able to use RadLab to gain a deeper understanding of the space radiation environment for future human space exploration. The RadLab Working Group has been formed to foster close collaborations among data contributors and users, to identify data sources, to put in place standards for data normalization, to guide the development of features of the analysis toolkit, to establish the use of RadLab in space radiation biology research, and eventually to provide a forum for discussing relevant research issues that can take advantage of RadLab's capabilities.

radiation↗

RadLab: A Comprehensive Database and Graphical and Programming Interfaces for Biologically Relevant Space Radiation Data

RadLab, a new component of the NASA Open Science Data Repository (OSDR), comprises a database of radiation measurements relevant to space biology, and visual and programmatic interfaces for interrogation and retrieval of these data. The attributes of data available through RadLab include spacecraft, types of radiation sensing instruments, locations within the spacecraft (e.g. modules of the ISS), associated celestial bodies, trajectories, and spacecraft coordinates. The application programming interface (API) implements a request syntax for retrieval of timestamped data filtered by various combinations of such attributes; the graphical user interface (GUI) extends this functionality with visualizations, such as spacecraft schematics, time series plots, geospatial visualizations, and provides easy means to iteratively refine search parameters, inspect the data on the fly, and download target subsets of these data. The release of RadLab currently available to the public contains datasets provided by US and international collaborators and focuses on data recorded on the ISS. Investigators from multiple countries, including the US, Canada, Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Russia and the Czech Republic, have committed to provide data from their instruments in and beyond low Earth orbit; RadLab will also soon expand to include past (e.g. Shuttle and Mir) and future (e.g. Artemis) data. RadLab will provide a comprehensive, dynamic compendium of space radiation data, enabling the scientific community to perform analyses of data from multiple detectors and to determine the radiation environment of research missions and experiments, both via programmatic retrieval of these data and through the graphical analysis toolkit. The RadLab Working Group has been formed to foster collaborations among data contributors and users, to identify data sources, to put in place standards for data harmonization, and to guide the development of the platform, with the goal to establish the use of RadLab in space radiation research and to advance our understanding of the space radiation environment in human habitats.

radiation↗

Designing Experiments for SpinSat, A Novel Variable-Gravity-and-Radiation Platform for Deep-Space Science

Conducting experiments to measure the effects of deep-space radiation and reduced gravity on biological and physical systems remains challenging. The result is a substantial knowledge gap that poses risks to our ability to sustain life and conduct critical operations in deep space. The SpinSat spacecraft platform is designed to bridge such gaps by providing low-cost, reliable, and frequent access to deep space. A disk-shaped rotating satellite that can provide artificial gravity and exposure to space radiation simultaneously, SpinSat is designed to accommodate payloads in a CubeSat form factor (with at least 48 “U” volume), providing power, communications, and a benign thermal environment. It is orbit-agnostic, enabling access to a variety of radiation environments (Van Allen belts, deep space, cis-lunar); and can be equipped with shielding to mimic planetary radiation environments, for both short- and long-term experiments. Because of its versatility and prioritization of late loading for biological payloads, it is well suited to host a wide range of ranging from human tissues and organoids to microorganisms, plants, chemistry, and regolith. Here, we present examples of potential experiment concepts for SpinSat, and discuss the details of how experimental designs could interact with the platform. Potential SpinSat studies have diverse applications, including fundamental radiation biology and DNA repair; cancer biology and countermeasure development; space agriculture; bioproduction of nutrients and pharmaceuticals; understanding regolith dynamics in low gravity; prebiotic chemistry and panspermia. We will further highlight ideas for SpinSat-compatible experimental hardware, existing and in development, and experiment-relevant details on SpinSat capabilities including artificial gravity, potential radiation environments, data, and power. This presentation will aim to provide investigators with the high-level technical information necessary to inspire experiments for SpinSat. We also seek to stimulate conversation and to gain community input on accommodations needs to help guide the evolving design of this platform.

experiment design↗

Advanced Radiation Detectors and Detector Systems Research

Real‐time awareness of space radiation is critical for missions beyond LEO. Missions to the Moon, Mars, Near‐Earth‐Objects (NEOs), inner and outer planets, as well as other destinations in space, will require embedded instrumentation to provide feedback for “smart”, adaptive control systems. Precision instrumentation will also be needed to provide improved data for space radiation modeling and space weather forecasting and awareness. Compact instrumentation on small platforms such as CubeSats and other small space‐faring vehicles will provide a better understanding of the space radiation environment by supplying data from multiple locations in space where information is yet unknown. Compact integrable solid‐state detectors with low noise and high tolerance of operation in a radiation environment are enabled by the application of Wide Band Gap semiconductors as radiation detectors. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is applying its expertise and facilities in harsh environment instrumentation to develop supporting technologies that enable improved instruments for space science missions. A variety of radiation detectors are under development, such as silicon carbide semiconductor detectors, for applications to space science, lunar prospecting, and fission power systems.

Field and particle detectors↗

The Correlation Between Arctic Sea Ice, Cloud Phase and Radiation Using A-Train Satellites

Climate warming has a stronger impact on Arctic climate and sea ice cover (SIC) decline than previously thought. Better understanding and characterization of the relationship between sea ice and clouds and the implications for surface radiation is key to improving our confidence in Arctic climate projections. Here we analyze the relationship between sea ice, cloud phase and surface radiation over the Arctic, defined as north of 60° N, using active- and passive-sensor satellite observations from three different datasets. We find that all datasets agree on the climatology of and seasonal variability in total and liquid-bearing (liquid and mixed-phase) cloud covers. Similarly, our results show a robust relationship between decreased SIC and increased liquid-bearing clouds in the lowest levels (below 3 km) for all seasons (strongest in winter) but summer, while increased SIC and ice clouds are positively correlated in two of the three datasets. A refined map correlation analysis indicates that the relationship between SIC and liquid-bearing clouds can change sign over the Bering, Barents and Laptev seas, likely because of intrusions of warm air from low latitudes during winter and spring. Finally, the increase in liquid clouds resulting from decreasing SIC is associated with enhanced radiative cooling at the surface. Our findings indicate that the newly formed liquid clouds reflect more shortwave (SW) radiation back to space compared to the surface, generating a cooling effect of the surface, while their downward longwave (LW) radiation is similar to the upward LW surface emission, which has a negligible radiative impact on the surface. This overall cooling effect should contribute to dampening future Arctic surface warming as SIC continues to decline.

Arctic climate↗