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At least 793 records · Page 44

Method for Accurately Calibrating a Spectrometer Using Broadband Light

A novel method has been developed for performing very fine calibration of a spectrometer. This process is particularly useful for modern miniature charge-coupled device (CCD) spectrometers where a typical factory wavelength calibration has been performed and a finer, more accurate calibration is desired. Typically, the factory calibration is done with a spectral line source that generates light at known wavelengths, allowing specific pixels in the CCD array to be assigned wavelength values. This method is good to about 1 nm across the spectrometer s wavelength range. This new method appears to be accurate to about 0.1 nm, a factor of ten improvement. White light is passed through an unbalanced Michelson interferometer, producing an optical signal with significant spectral variation. A simple theory can be developed to describe this spectral pattern, so by comparing the actual spectrometer output against this predicted pattern, errors in the wavelength assignment made by the spectrometer can be determined.

Simmons, Stephen↗

Detection of Ionospheric Alfven Resonator Signatures in the Equatorial Ionosphere

The ionosphere response resulting from minimum solar activity during cycle 23/24 was unusual and offered unique opportunities for investigating space weather in the near-Earth environment. We report ultra low frequency electric field signatures related to the ionospheric Alfven resonator detected by the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite in the equatorial region. These signatures are used to constrain ionospheric empirical models and offer a new approach for monitoring ionosphere dynamics and space weather phenomena, namely aeronomy processes, Alfven wave propagation, and troposphere24 ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling mechanisms.

Simoes, Fernando↗

Multi-Sensor Observations of Earthquake Related Atmospheric Signals over Major Geohazard Validation Sites

We are conducting a scientific validation study involving multi-sensor observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several atmospheric and environmental parameters, which we found, are associated with the earthquakes, namely: thermal infrared radiation, outgoing long-wavelength radiation, ionospheric electron density, and atmospheric temperature and humidity. For first time we applied this approach to selected GEOSS sites prone to earthquakes or volcanoes. This provides a new opportunity to cross validate our results with the dense networks of in-situ and space measurements. We investigated two different seismic aspects, first the sites with recent large earthquakes, viz.- Tohoku-oki (M9, 2011, Japan) and Emilia region (M5.9, 2012,N. Italy). Our retrospective analysis of satellite data has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Second, we did a retrospective analysis to check the re-occurrence of similar anomalous behavior in atmosphere/ionosphere over three regions with distinct geological settings and high seismicity: Taiwan, Japan and Kamchatka, which include 40 major earthquakes (M>5.9) for the period of 2005-2009. We found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives; false positives were less then 10%. Our initial results suggest that multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area that could be explained by a coupling between the observed physical parameters and earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, D.↗

Finite Element Simulation of Solid Rocket Booster Separation Motors During Motor Firing

One of the toughest challenges facing Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) engineers is to ensure that any design changes made to the Shuttle-Derived Booster Separation Motors (BSM) for future space exploration vehicles is able to withstand the increasingly hostile motor firing environment without cracking its critical component - the graphite throat. This paper presents a critical analysis methodology and techniques for assessing effects of BSM design changes with great accuracy and precision. For current Space Shuttle operation, the motor firing occurs at SRB separation - approximately 125 seconds after Shuttle launch at an altitude of about 28 miles. The motor operation event lasts about two seconds, however, the surface temperature of the graphite throat increases approximately 3400 F in less than one second with a corresponding increase in surface pressure of approximately 2200 pounds per square inch (psi) in less than one-tenth of a second. To capture this process fully and accurately, a two-phase sequentially coupled thermal-mechanical finite element approach was developed. This method allows the time- and location-dependent pressure fields to interact with the spatial-temporal thermal fields throughout the operation. The material properties of graphite throat are orthotropic and temperature-dependent. The analysis involves preload and multiple body contacts.

Yu. Weiping↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-35020-DND

Low dimensionality materials continue to gain interest in the research community due to a combination of unique optical, electronic transport, and structural properties. Carbon Nanotubes and graphene are two such materials that are attractive for structural health monitoring applications. Single layer graphene is transparent, conductive, strong, flexible, and amenable to deposition by inkjet printing techniques. Carbon nanotubes are extremely strong and lightweight, and available in forms that can be printed, stitched or applied as a sensory patch on a structure. In this work the flexibility, conductivity, and processing capabilities of these low dimensionality carbon structures are coupled to produce directly printed strain sensors. Experimental results from coupon testing through full-scale flight tests are presented and a path toward structural systems with inherent health monitoring discussed.

Buzz Wincheski↗

Environmental Verification of NASA’s Europa Clipper Mission

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and its partner are planning a mission to explore an icy moon of Jupiter, Europa. The objective of the planned Europa Clipper mission is to gain insight into the key ingredients for this potentially habitable world. This mission will conduct investigations using a suite of remote sensing and in-situ fields and particles instruments, and a two-channel ice-penetrating radar. Among its science objectives are to produce high-resolution images of Europa's surface, determine its composition, look for signs of recent or ongoing activity, measure the thickness of the ice shell, search for subsurface lakes, and determine the depth and salinity of Europa's ocean. Europa Clipper is expected to encounter very challenging environments. These environments include radiation, dynamics, thermal, and electromagnetics, which have been translated into a set of environmental requirements that are levied onto the Europa Clipper flight system design. This paper describes how the environmental requirements are specified and verified for each flight component and at which level of integration. A couple of examples will be provided to illustrate the process by which a comprehensive set of verification activities is specified and performed for individual subsystems and instruments to ensure mission success.

Man, Kin Fung↗

Uranus Probe Entry and Descent Mission Concept

Introduction: Uranus was identified as the third highest priority flagship mission in the 2012-2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. This latest concept study was requested by the Decadal Survey panel to determine NASA’s planetary science priorities from 2022-2032. This study focused on the probe’s entry and descent aspects and associated trades for viable trajectory options. Uranus Mission and Descent Probe: The proposed Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) Flagship mission will investigate Uranus and its surrounding moons using an orbiting spacecraft with a Uranus descent probe. Unlike previous studies the probe release will occur after orbit insertion allowing sufficient separation of critical events during the orbit insertion burn. The probe will be released at an altitude that allows one hour of in situ atmospheric readings that will be relayed to the orbiter. Afterwards the orbiter will transition to the moon tour phase of the mission. The configuration chosen for the entry aeroshell was a 45° sphere-cone. This shape has been used in the past in the Pioneer Venus Galileo missions. However, the nose radius considered in the present study differed from the values used in either of the previous configurations, primarily to reduce the heat flux at the stagnation point. A two-step approach was used in the development of flight trajectories for the chosen configuration. In the first step, the trajectory code POST2 was used to screen the thousands of entry states provided by interplanetary trajectory simulations, which were terminated at an altitude of 2000 km from the reference surface (1 bar) of Uranus. The screening criteria were: (i) optimization of the communication geometry between the entry probe and orbiter to ensure at least 1 hour of science measurements, (ii) peak stagnation point pressures to be less than six bar, (iii) peak heat fluxes to be less than 5 kW/cm2; the latter two constraints being the limits of ground-test capabilities of the arc jets at NASA Ames Research Center. The entry team investigated two trajectories that met the criteria above, a shallow entry (high heat load ~44 kJ/cm2) and a steeper entry (high heat rate ~1950 W/cm2). In the second step, the two bounding candidate entry states from the POST2 screening process were used in developing flight trajectories using TRAJ coupled with FIAT (a materials thermal response and sizing code) and a margins policy to determine a margined uniform thickness (hence mass) of the forward heatshield material based on the aerothermal environments at the stagnation point. Since the combination of TRAJ and FIAT size the TPS based on stagnation point environments only, flow field computations using DPLR were necessary to determine turbulent aerothermal environments on the conical flank, and the augmentation of these environments due to surface roughness. The environments at select locations on the forward heatshield were then used to size the thermal protection material, with the largest thickness value then used to estimate the mass. The newly developed woven thermal protection material –HEEET (Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology) –was considered for the forward heatshield and PICA (Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator) was considered for the backshell. These NASA-developed materials are at TRL 6 and TRL 9, respectively. Furthermore, two options were considered for the HEEET material: (i) a dual-layer option with a denser recession layer on top and an insulative layer underneath it, and (ii) a single layer option consisting of the insulative layer alone. Results: It is clear that probe entry states are feasible and the selected TPS options are able to perform in the predicted aerothermal environments thus enabling the mission to meet of the descent probe portion of this flagship mission

Entry Descent and Landing↗

SUSAN Power/Propulsion System Emulation Test Predictions

The development of all-electric and hybrid-electric propulsion systems for transport aircraft presents an opportunity for new designs that can reduce fuel consumption and emissions from commercial aviation while enabling safer and more reliable aircraft. The SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) is a conceptual design for a single-aisle transport aircraft with a series/parallel partial-hybrid propulsion system that is being developed by NASA as a reference design for single-aisle transport with a high degree of electrification. The SUSAN aircraft incorporates multiple tightly coupled power, propulsion, and flight control systems. This coupling leads to challenges in the aircraft control design process, requiring a hierarchical and more coordinated control architecture. This presentation will summarize the plans for a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) test performed in the Hybrid Propulsion Emulation Rig (HyPER) facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). During this test, a real-time reference model of the full-scale SUSAN powertrain and controllers will be run alongside a sub-scale electro-mechanical system representing a portion of the electrified components in the SUSAN hybrid powertrain. This test will allow the performance of the SUSAN controllers to be evaluated using real powertrain components and allows side-by-side comparison between the real and modeled subsystems. This presentation will summarize the full-scale system model, steps towards integration of representative hardware for future control testing, and predicted results.

Jonah J. Sachs-Wetstone↗

Comprehensive Digital Twin of a Macro-fluidic Electrochemical Reactor to Optimize the Electrochemical-based Recovery of O2 from Metabolic CO2

Future long-duration missions will require a sustainable and efficient system capable of yielding a minimum of 75% O 2 recovery from metabolic CO 2 to achieve self-sufficiency for long space missions beyond Earth's low orbit. A Macro-fluidic Electrochemical Reactor (MFECR) development effort to electrochemically recover O 2 from CO 2 is underway at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to increase current O 2 recovery efficiency and reduce air revitalization (AR) system complexity at the International Space Station (ISS) habitat and future long missions. The authors have developed and deployed a digital twin of an actual single cell of the MFECR via a comprehensive 3D multiphysics model that thoroughly replicates the exact configuration and fluid/material domains of the MFECR. This model's electrochemical physics consists of multicomponent-multiphase electrochemical-driven reactions leading to CO 2 conversion to C 2 H 4 and CO along with the formation of H 2 on the cathode in parallel with the generation of O 2 and H 2 O on the anode. This electrochemical model is coupled with all the physics phenomena involved in the process, including but not limited to fluid and non-ideal mass transfer of reactant and product species in free and porous media, convective/conduction/radiative heat transfer, and conduction of DC electrical current with Joule heating generation. The digital twin has proved to be an essential tool for performing different qualitative studies, including the effect of reducing the height (increasing the respect ratio) of the serpentine walls, leading to a further redesign of the EDU (the newly redesigned MFECR EDU has been fabricated and is expected to be used in future tests), the evaluation of setting different MFECRs connected in series, and the assessment of feeding air directly to the MFECR skipping the preceding metabolic CO 2 separation from air. The MFECR's test stand is fully automated and equipped with several inline measurements (flow, pressure, temperature, pH, component concentration) systems on all six MFECR's IO streams, allowing reliable experimental validation of the model, parametric determination of all electrochemical reactions, and process optimization.

Jesus A Dominguez↗

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗

Hybrid Reduced Order Model for N2-N2 Interactions for Application to Dissociation and Energy Transfer Processes

This work presents a general framework for model reduction of non-equilibrium energy transfer and dissociation processes. The multi-group maximum-entropy method is coupled with the quasi-classical trajectory method to directly construct a reduced order model for chemical non-equilibrium. Kinetic data is calculated by applying detailed balance at a microscopic level, overcoming the limitation of calculating recombination kinetic data. This approach enables the construction of a reduced order model for kinetics which bypasses the need to compute state-to-state kinetic data. This physics based reduced order model ensures that an equilibrium distribution is reached given infinite time, while allowing for non-equilibrium distributions during the relaxation and dissociation processes. A proof-of-concept test case demonstrates the applicability of this model by comparison with state-to-state kinetic data for the N2(Chi (sup 1) Sigma ((sub g), (sup plus sign)) minus N ((exp 4) S (sub u)) system with excellent agreement.

Maximum Entropy↗

Coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model to a Spacecraft Thermal System Model for the DraMS Instrument Thermal Analysis

The Dragonfly Mass Spectrometer (DraMS) is an instrument on the Dragonfly mission, which will spend 7 years in deep space cruise before landing and operating on the surface of Titan. Vacuum thermal analyses are required for deep space cruise, and convection analyses are required for the Titan surface operations. Model exchanges across multiple thermal teams are needed for all phases of the mission. For DraMS, Thermal Desktop® (TD) has been the main thermal analytical tool of choice due to its capability in modeling complex thermal systems with relatively low computational power and for its availability across thermal teams. However, TD does not have computational fluid dynamics (CFD) capability and struggles to accurately capture complex convective behavior. DraMS has fans operating in tandem and gas flow behaviors are not easily predicted due to its complex flow paths. CFD software, such as Fluent, can model and predict such complex flow behaviors, but CFD models are computationally expensive, and its workflow processes are not tailored towards simulating large and complex systems. Therefore, a coupled modeling approach was chosen for DraMS: A TD model was used for simulating all the conductive, radiative, and source terms, while a Fluent CFD model was added on, as needed, to the TD model to provide the convective boundary conditions using the System Coupling software. The coupling software allows the TD and Fluent models to communicate data and arrive at a co-solved and co-converged solution. Furthermore, Thermal Iso-value Exchange (TIE) method was developed to facilitate and improve the TD-Fluent data exchange process. This paper will discuss the analytical studies that were done to verify the accuracy and usability of the coupled approach and the challenges associated, which lead to the development of the TIE approach. DraMS thermal design and co-solved analysis results will also be discussed.

Heat transfer↗

Coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model to a Spacecraft Thermal System Model for the DraMS Instrument Thermal Analysis

The Dragonfly Mass Spectrometer (DraMS) is an instrument on the Dragonfly mission, which will spend 7 years in deep space cruise before landing and operating on the surface of Titan. Vacuum thermal analyses are required for deep space cruise, and convection analyses are required for the Titan surface operations. Model exchanges across multiple thermal teams are needed for all phases of the mission. For DraMS, Thermal Desktop (TD) has been the main thermal analytical tool of choice due to its capability in modeling complex thermal systems with relatively low computational power and for its availability across thermal teams. However, TD does not have computational fluid dynamics (CFD) capability and struggles to accurately capture complex convective behavior. DraMS has fans operating in tandem and gas flow behaviors are not easily predicted due to its complex flow paths. CFD software, such as Fluent, can model and predict such complex flow behaviors, but CFD models are computationally expensive, and its workflow processes are not tailored towards simulating large and complex systems. Therefore, a coupled modeling approach was chosen for DraMS: A TD model was used for simulating all the conductive, radiative, and source terms, while a Fluent CFD model was added on, as needed, to the TD model to provide the convective boundary conditions using the System Coupling software. The coupling software allows the TD and Fluent models to communicate data and arrive at a co-solved and co-converged solution. Furthermore, Thermal Iso-value Exchange (TIE) method was developed to facilitate and improve the TD-Fluent data exchange process. This paper will discuss the analytical studies that were done to verify the accuracy and usability of the coupled approach and the challenges associated, which lead to the development of the TIE approach. DraMS thermal design and co-solved analysis results will also be discussed.

heat transfer↗

Aerothermal Analysis of the Rocket Lab Venus Probe Heatshield

This document provides an overview of the aerothermodynamic analyses performed by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at NASA Langley Research Center for the Rocket Lab Venus Probe (RLVP). In addition to defining the baseline heating environment to the heatshield, this document pursues the experimental validation of key physical models at RLVP-relevant conditions. This experimental validation analysis, which captures the model form uncertainty, is used as one of two primary components of the margin assessment, where the other component is the parametric uncertainty. These model form (experimental) and parametric uncertainty components are used to construct a spatial and time varying margin for the heating to the RLVP heatshield. The margin is evaluated as the sum of the parametric and model form uncertainty components. The model form uncertainty is defined as the difference between the RLVP-relevant measurements and their simulations, using the upper limit uncertainty bounds for both the measurements and simulations in the comparisons. The differences in the dominant physics in the stagnation region and flank lead to the separate RLVP-relevant measurements for assessing the model form uncertainty in these two regions. These regions are addressed as follows: Stagnation Region Heating Environment: For the high-temperature stagnation-region, both the radiative heating and impact of blowing on convective heating are significant, while the impacts of turbulence and roughness are negligible. Coupled radiation and ablation LAURA/HARA solutions with ray-tracing provide the radiative heating over the entire vehicle, including the contributions from the Venus atmosphere and ablation species. Non-ablating LAURA simulations provide the convective heating. During the material-response computation typically used for TPS sizing, this non-ablating convective heating is corrected for the impact of ablation using the blowing correction. Coupled ablation LAURA simulations that capture finite-rate sur-face processes show that this blowing correction may be non-conservative over most of the heatshield. This non-conservatism is due to hydrogen recombination in the finite-rate surface model, which tends to increase the coupled ablation convective heating to near the non-ablating values, therefore making any reduction in the non-ablating value through the blowing correction non-conservative. This non-conservatism due to H catalysis is captured in the parametric component of the margin. The best available ground-test measurements that capture the impact of blowing on stagnation region convective heating, at RLVP-relevant conditions, indicate that the current blowing reduction model is non-conservative by up to 20% at RLVP-relevant blowing rates (the coupled blowing simulations were also non-conservative). Because of the relatively low velocity of the ground tests and the non-Venus atmospheric chemistry, these measurements do not capture the chemistry and therefore do not inform the uncertainty due to H catalysis. However, they do capture the fluid mechanics of blowing. The non-conservatism of the blowing correction implied by these measurements is covered by the model form component of the margin, which leads to total margin values over 50%. For the radiative heating, the shock-tube informed bias approach suggests a model form uncertainty of roughly 20%, while the parametric uncertainty analysis suggests values over 100%. The combined stagnation-point radiation margin of over 100% leads to peak margined radiative heating values of over300 W/cm2, which remains small relative to the peak margined convective heating of nearly 2000 W/cm2. Based on this analysis, at the stagnation point, the peak margined heat rate is 2203 W/cm2 and the margined total heat load is 31.5 kJ/cm2 for the current nominal trajectory. Flank Heating Environment: The forebody flank (and near-shoulder) heating environment is dominated by the impact of turbulence, roughness augmentation, and ablation on the convective heating. An extensive collection of ground test measurements with RLVP-relevant turbulence and roughness is studied to show that the maximum difference between the simulated and measured convective heating is 5%. However, with the exception of the Holden measurements from the 1980s, these measurements do not include roughness elements extending into the supersonic region of the boundary layer, which is likely to occur for RLVP (due to the 45 degree sphere-cone geometry). The interaction between the supersonic flow and roughness could cause convective heating augmentation fundamentally different than for locally subsonic flow. Although these Holden measurements are consistent with the other measurements considered, another path was pursued to assure that the rough-ness height extending into supersonic flow does not fundamentally change the roughness augmentation. This additional path was a computational effort to resolve the roughness elements in the CFD grid, so that the interaction be-tween the roughness elements and locally supersonic flow may be simulated in detail. This roughness-resolved CFD simulation is feasible because of the RLVP forebody TPS’s patterned roughness, which may be approximated analytically, and because of the axisymmetric nominal flow field, which allows a narrow surface region to be simulated and therefore make the computational expense feasible. These grid-resolved roughness simulations, which are performed at actual RLVP flight conditions, result in heating augmentation values that are below the design approach for roughness augmentation. This provides evidence that the design approach for RLVP roughness augmentation is sufficient. Based on this analysis, at this flank or near-shoulder location, the peak margined total heat rate is 2088 W/cm2and the margined total heat load is 26.0 kJ/cm2for the current nominal trajectory. Heat flux, shear, pressure and heat transfer coefficient at the RLVP stagnation point and near shoulder location are evaluated for the entire trajectory, and curved fit to a functional form of F=AρB∞UC∞. These simplified relationships for the nominal and margined aerothermal environments are referred to as aerothermal indicators, and presented at the end of this document.

Christopher O Johnston↗

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗