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NASA NTRS2016

We Can't Count on Repairing All Failures Going to Mars

Reliability analysis often assumes that a complex system can be kept operating indefinitely with scheduled maintenance and emergency repair using a stock of spare parts, as long as the spare parts are not depleted. This assumption seems justified for well-tested, widely used, long operational systems with a multigenerational history of failure, redesign, and reliability growth. It seems doubtful that newer, relatively untried, high technology space systems can always be repaired. We cannot assume space systems will have a low rate of random failures that can all be repaired with a few identical spares. New untried systems usually have a high initial failure rate, called infant mortality, due to errors in requirements, design, parts, materials, and operations planning. These problems can cause groups of related failures called Common Cause Failures (CCFs). The practical definition of a CCF is any failure mode that cannot be cured using identical redundant systems or spare parts. Systems with CCFs may fail repeatedly for the same reason. Can a life support system be kept operating on the way to Mars using only redundant systems and spare parts? The failure history of International Space Station (ISS) life support systems suggests that CCFs are likely to occur and will probably require design changes rather than being reparable with spare parts.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study: Appendices - Volume 2

The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the Appendices to the main report.

Piascik, Robert S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Parametric Failures in COTS Capacitors

Insertion of COTS components into hi-rel systems require extensive environmental testing of the parts that often results in parametric failures. Based on experience with commercial and hi-rel PME and BME ceramic capacitors and polymer and MnO2 cathode tantalum capacitors, this presentation discusses two major reasons for parametric failures. One is due to the marketing pressure that forces manufacturers to squeeze performance of COTS components thus leaving insufficient margin between the rated and actual characteristics. Another, and probably a more serious reason is degradation of characteristics caused by physico-chemical processes in materials under environmental stresses. Reliability assessment requires development of models to predict behavior of the parts during applications based on accelerated testing that might be outside the specified conditions and target applications. Examples of models developed to simulate and predict wear-out failures are presented. Risks associated with overstressing during HALT are discussed.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Effects of Fiber Surface Modification and Thermal Aging on Composite Toughness and Its Measurement

A detailed experimental study was conducted to establish the structure-property relationships between elevated temperature aging and fiber-matrix bonding, Mode 2 interlaminar fracture toughness, and failure modes of carbon fiber/PMR-15 composites. The fiber-matrix adhesion was varied by using carbon fibers with different surface treatments. Short beam shear tests were used to quantify the interfacial shear strength afforded by the use of the different fiber surface treatments. The results of the short beam shear tests showed that, for times up to 1000 hr, the aging process caused no changes in the bulk of the three composite materials that would degrade the shear properties of the material. Comparisons between the interlaminar shear strengths (ILSS) measured by the short beam shear tests and the GIIC test results, as measured by the ENF test, indicated that the differences in the surface treatments significantly affected the fracture properties while the effect of the aging process was probably limited to changes at the starter crack tip. The fracture properties changed due to a shift in the fracture from an interfacial failure to a failure within the matrix when the fiber was changed from AU-4 to AS-4 or AS-4G. There appears to be an effect of the fiber/matrix bonding on the thermo-oxidative stability of the composites that were tested. The low bonding afforded by the AU 1 fiber resulted in weight losses about twice those experienced by the AS 1 reinforced composites, the ones with the best TOS.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Effects of Fiber Surface Modification and Thermal Aging on Composite Toughness And its Measurement

A detailed experimental study was conducted to establish the structure-property relationships between elevated temperature aging and (I) fiber-matrix bonding, (2) Mode II interlaminar fracture toughness, and (3) failure modes of carbon fiber/PMR-15 composites. The fiber-matrix adhesion was varied by using carbon fibers with different surface treatments. Short beam shear tests were used to quantify the interfacial shear strength afforded by the use of the different fiber surface treatments. The results of the short beam shear tests definitely showed that, for aging times up to 1000 hr, the aging process caused no observable changes in the bulk of the three composite materials that---would degrade the shear properties of the material. Comparisons between the interlaminar shear strength (ILSS) measured by the short beam shear tests and the GII c test results, as measured by the ENF test, indicated that the differences in the surface treatments significantly affected the fracture properties while the effect of the aging process was probably limited to changes at the starter crack tip. The fracture properties changed due to a shift in the fracture from an interfacial failure to a failure within the matrix when the fiber was changed from AU-4 to AS-4 or AS-4G. There appears to be an effect of the fiber/matrix bonding on the thermo-oxidative stability of the composites that were tested. The low bonding afforded by the AU-4 fiber resulted in weight losses about twice those experienced by the AS-4 reinforced composites, the ones with the best TOS.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Regional Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks

Abstract Measures of foreshock occurrence are systematically examined using earthquake catalogs for eight regions (Italy, southern California, northern California, Costa Rica, Onshore Japan, Alaska, Turkey, and Greece) after imposing a magnitude ≥3.0 completeness level. Foreshocks are identified using three approaches: a magnitude-dependent space + fixed-time windowing method, a nearest-neighbor clustering method, and a modified magnitude-dependent space + variable-time windowing method. The method with fixed-time windows systematically yields higher counts of foreshocks than the other two clustering methods. We find similar counts of foreshocks across the three methods when the magnitude aperture is equalized by including only earthquakes in the magnitude range M*−2≤ M< M*, in which M* is the mainshock magnitude. For most of the catalogs (excluding Italy and southern California), the measured b-values of the foreshocks of all region-specific mainshocks are lower by 0.1–0.2 than b-values of respective aftershocks. Allowing for variable-time windows results in relatively high probabilities of having at least one foreshock in Italy (∼43%–56%), compared to other regional catalogs. Foreshock probabilities decrease to 14%–41% for regions such as Turkey, Greece, and Costa Rica. Similar trends are found when requiring at least five foreshocks in a sequence to be considered. Estimates of foreshock probabilities for each mainshock are method dependent; however, consistent regional trends exist regardless of method, with regions such as Italy and southern California producing more observable foreshocks than Turkey and Greece. Some regions with relatively high background seismicity have comparatively low probabilities of detectable foreshock activity when using methods that account for variable background, possibly due to depletion of near-failure fault conditions by background activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Advancing human exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit, and ultimately to Mars, is of great interest to NASA, other organizations, and space exploration advocates. Various strategies for getting to Mars have been proposed. These include NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, a near-term flyby of Mars advocated by the group Inspiration Mars, and potential options developed for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign. Regardless of which approach is used to get to Mars, they all share a need to visualize and analyze their proposed campaign and evaluate the feasibility of the launch and on-orbit assembly segment of the campaign. The launch and assembly segment starts with flight hardware manufacturing and ends with final departure of a Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV), or set of MTVs, from an assembly orbit near Earth. This paper describes a discrete event simulation based strategic visualization and analysis tool that can be used to evaluate the launch campaign reliability of any proposed strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The input to the simulation can be any manifest of multiple launches and their associated transit operations between Earth and the exploration destinations, including Earth orbit, lunar orbit, asteroids, moons of Mars, and ultimately Mars. The simulation output includes expected launch dates and ascent outcomes i.e., success or failure. Running 1,000 replications of the simulation provides the capability to perform launch campaign reliability analysis to determine the probability that all launches occur in a timely manner to support departure opportunities and to deliver their payloads to the intended orbit. This allows for quantitative comparisons between alternative scenarios, as well as the capability to analyze options for improving launch campaign reliability. Results are presented for representative strategies.

Cates, Grant↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Cates, Grant↗

NASA NTRS1978

EPRI-NASA Cooperative Project on Stress Corrosion Cracking of Zircaloys

Examinations of the inside surface of irradiated fuel cladding from two reactors show the Zircaloy cladding is exposed to a number of aggressive substances, among them iodine, cadmium, and iron-contaminated cesium. Iodine-induced stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of well characterized samples of Zircaloy sheet and tubing was studied. Results indicate that a threshold stress must be exceeded for iodine SCC to occur. The existence of a threshold stress indicates that crack formation probably is the key step in iodine SCC. Investigation of the crack formation process showed that the cracks responsible for SCC failure nucleated at locations in the metal surface that contained higher than average concentrations of alloying elements and impurities. A four-stage model of iodine SCC is proposed based on the experimental results and the relevance of the observations to pellet cladding interaction failures is discussed.

Cubicciotti, D.↗

NASA NTRS1966

Calculations of reliability predictions for the Apollo spacecraft

A new method of reliability prediction for complex systems is defined. Calculation of both upper and lower bounds are involved, and a procedure for combining the two to yield an approximately true prediction value is presented. Both mission success and crew safety predictions can be calculated, and success probabilities can be obtained for individual mission phases or subsystems. Primary consideration is given to evaluating cases involving zero or one failure per subsystem, and the results of these evaluations are then used for analyzing multiple failure cases. Extensive development is provided for the overall mission success and crew safety equations for both the upper and lower bounds.

Amstadter, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA Crew and Cargo Launch Vehicle Development Approach Builds on Lessons from Past and Present Missions

The United States (US) Vision for Space Exploration, announced in January 2004, outlines the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) strategic goals and objectives, including retiring the Space Shuttle and replacing it with new space transportation systems for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) that the new human-rated Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) lofts into space early next decade will initially ferry astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) Toward the end of the next decade, a heavy-lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) will deliver the Earth Departure Stage (EDS) carrying the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) to low-Earth orbit (LEO), where it will rendezvous with the CEV launched on the CLV and return astronauts to the Moon for the first time in over 30 years. This paper outlines how NASA is building these new space transportation systems on a foundation of legacy technical and management knowledge, using extensive experience gained from past and ongoing launch vehicle programs to maximize its design and development approach, with the objective of reducing total life cycle costs through operational efficiencies such as hardware commonality. For example, the CLV in-line configuration is composed of a 5-segment Reusable Solid Rocket Booster (RSRB), which is an upgrade of the current Space Shuttle 4- segment RSRB, and a new upper stage powered by the liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen (LOX/LH2) J-2X engine, which is an evolution of the J-2 engine that powered the Apollo Program s Saturn V second and third stages in the 1960s and 1970s. The CaLV configuration consists of a propulsion system composed of two 5-segment RSRBs and a 33- foot core stage that will provide the LOX/LED needed for five commercially available RS-68 main engines. The J-2X also will power the EDS. The Exploration Launch Projects, managed by the Exploration Launch Office located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, is leading the design, development, testing, and operations planning for these new space transportation systems. Utilizing a foundation of heritage hardware and management lessons learned mitigates both technical and programmatic risk. Project engineers and managers work closely with the Space Shuttle Program to transition hardware, infrastructure, and workforce assets to the new launch systems, leveraging a wealth of knowledge from Shuffle operations. In addition, NASA and its industry partners have tapped into valuable Apollo databases and are applying corporate wisdom conveyed firsthand by Apollo-era veterans of America s original Moon missions. Learning from its successes and failures, NASA employs rigorous systems engineering and systems management processes and principles in a disciplined, integrated fashion to further improve the probability of mission success.

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

Anderson, Leif↗

NASA NTRS2004

Olympus Mons Aureole Deposits: New Evidence for a Flank Failure Origin

The origin of the rough-textured aureoles that surround the immense Olympus Mons volcano on Mars is controversial. We present data from the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey missions to demonstrate that at least two of the aureole lobes are derived from the volcano's flanks in large and probably catastrophic mass movement events, leaving behind headwalls that constitute the basal scarp. This evidence stems from the morphology and internal structure of aureole blocks, which exhibit remnants of volcanic flow units on their surfaces. Our claim is supported by plausible reconstructions of the prefailure flanks. Structural analogs to known flank failure events at Hawaiian volcanoes suggest that repeated cycles of flank growth and collapse at Olympus Mons allow generation of the observed aureoles from a protoedifice similar in size and shape to the present one.

McGovern, P. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rare events and Griffiths phases in topological quantum error correction

The performance of quantum error correcting (QEC) codes is often studied under the assumption of spatiotemporally uniform error rates. On the other hand, experimental implementations almost always produce heterogeneous error rates, in either space or time, as a result of effects such as imperfect fabrication and/or cosmic rays. It is therefore important to understand if and how their presence can affect the performance of QEC in qualitative ways. Here, in this work, we study the effects of nonuniform error rates in the representative examples of the 1D repetition code and the 2D toric code, focusing on when they have extended spatiotemporal correlations; these may arise, for instance, from rare events (such as cosmic rays) that temporarily elevate error rates over the entire code patch. These effects can be described in the corresponding statistical mechanics models for decoding, where long-range correlations in the error rates lead to extended rare regions of weaker coupling. For the 1D repetition code where the rare regions are linear, we find two distinct decodable phases: a conventional ordered phase in which logical failure rates decay exponentially with the code distance, and a rare-region dominated Griffiths phase in which failure rates are parametrically larger and decay as a stretched exponential. In particular, the latter phase is present when the error rates in the rare regions are above the bulk threshold. For the 2D toric code where the rare regions are planar, we find no decodable Griffiths phase: rare events which boost error rates above the bulk threshold lead to an asymptotic loss of threshold and failure to decode. Unpacking the failure mechanism implies that techniques for suppressing extended sequences of repeated rare events (which, without intervention, will be statistically present with high probability) will be crucial for QEC with the toric code.

classical statistical mechanics↗

NASA NTRS1980

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Sidik, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A hierarchical approach to reliability modeling of fault-tolerant systems

A methodology for performing fault tolerant system reliability analysis is presented. The method decomposes a system into its subsystems, evaluates vent rates derived from the subsystem's conditional state probability vector and incorporates those results into a hierarchical Markov model of the system. This is done in a manner that addresses failure sequence dependence associated with the system's redundancy management strategy. The method is derived for application to a specific system definition. Results are presented that compare the hierarchical model's unreliability prediction to that of a more complicated tandard Markov model of the system. The results for the example given indicate that the hierarchical method predicts system unreliability to a desirable level of accuracy while achieving significant computational savings relative to component level Markov model of the system.

Gossman, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Statistically based material properties: A military handbook-17 perspective

This paper describes statistical procedures and their importance in obtaining composite material property values in designing structures for aircraft and military combat systems. The property value is such that the strength exceeds this value with a prescribed probability with 95% confidence in the assertion. The survival probabilities are the 99th percentile and 90th percentile for the A and B basis values respectively. The basis values for strain to failure measurements are defined in a similar manner. The B value is the primary concern of this paper.

Donald M. Neal↗

NASA NTRS1991

Optical space-to-ground link availability assessment and diversity requirements

The application of optical space-to-ground links (SGLs) for high speed data distribution from geosynchronous and low earth orbiting satellites (e.g., sensor data from the planned Earth Observing System), for lunar and Mars links, and for links from interplanetary probes has been a topic of considerable recent interest. These optical SGLs could conceivably represent the system's operational baseline, or could represent backup links in the event of a GEO relay terminal failure. In this paper the availability of optical SGLs for various system/orbit configurations is considered. Single CONUS sites are assessed for their probability of cloud free line of sight (PCFLOS), and cloud free field of view (PCFFOV). PCFLOS represents an availability metric for geosynchronous platforms, while PCFFOV is a relevant performance metric for non-geostationary platforms (e.g., low earth orbiting satellites). Additionally, the availability of multiple ground terminals utilized in a diversity configuration is considered. Availability statistics vs. the number of diversity sites are derived from climatological data bases for CONUS sites.

Chapman, William↗