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At least 793 records · Page 44

Forecasting the Structure and Orientation of Earthbound Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the key drivers of strong to extreme space weather storms at the Earth that can have drastic consequences for technological systems in space and on ground.The ability of a CME to drive geomagnetic disturbances depends crucially on the magnetic structure of the embedded flux rope, which is thus essential to predict. The current capabilities in forecasting in advance(at least half a day before) the geo effectiveness of a given CME is however severely hampered by the lack of remote-sensing measurements of the magnetic field in the corona and adequate tools to predict how CMEs deform, rotate, and deflect during their travel through the coronal and interplanetary space as they interact with the ambient solar wind and other CMEs. These problems can lead not only to over estimation or underestimation of the severity of a storm, but also to forecasting "misses" and "false alarms" that are particularly difficult for the end-users. In this paper, we discuss the current status and future challenges and prospects related to forecasting of the magnetic structure and orientation of CMEs. We focus both on observational- and modeling-based (first principle and semiempirical) approaches and discuss the space- and ground-based observations that would be the most optimal for making accurate space weather predictions. We also cover the gaps in our current understanding related to the formation and eruption of the CME flux rope and physical processes that govern its evolution in the variable ambient solar windbackground that complicate the forecasting.

Kilpua, E. K. J.↗

International Space Station Spacecraft Charging Environments: Modeling, Measurement and Implications for Future Human Space Flight Programs

Spacecraft charging analysis and migration is an interdisciplinary subject combining aspects of electrostatics, plasma physics, ionizing radiation, and materials science, as well as electronic system electromagnetic interference and compatibility (EMI/EMC) effects. Spacecraft charging hazards are caused by the accumulation of electrical charge on spacecraft and spacecraft components produced by interactions with space plasmas, energetic charged particles, and solar UV photons as well as spacecraft electrical power and propulsion systems operations. Spacecraft charging hazard effects include both hard and soft avionics and electrical power system anomalies and have led to the partial or complete loss of numerous spacecraft. The International Space Station (ISS) orbital altitude and inclination (~400 km and 51.6o) determined the dominant natural environment factors affecting ISS spacecraft charging; high speed flight through the geomagnetic field and electrical power system interaction with the cold, high-density ionospheric plasma. In addition ISS is exposed to energetic auroral electrons at high latitude. In this paper we present the results of ISS spacecraft charging modeling and measurements and compare the measurements with numerical modeling of ISS charging processes. ISS is a large metallic structure and flight through the geomagnetic field at orbital speed dominates ISS charging. Collection of ionospheric electrons by the large 160V PV arrays is the next largest contributor. Charging by auroral electrons is detectable but makes a relatively minor contribution. Finally we report the observation of short duration (~ 1 sec) rapid charging peaks associated with shunt/un-shunt operations of the 160V PV arrays, a phenomena not predicted before flight. ISS spacecraft charging environments are radically different from those encountered at higher altitudes in Earth?s magnetosphere and in cis-Lunar space. We present a brief review of those charging environments and an assessment of the applicability of ISS spacecraft charging management and experience to future human spaceflight programs beyond LEO.

Koontz, Steven L.↗

Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today’s climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research—field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of atmospheric scattering and surface reflection on upwelling solar radiation

A study is presented of the solar radiation transfer in the complete earth-atmosphere system, and numerical results are compared with satellite data obtained during the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment on Nimbus 6, in August, 1975. Emphasis is placed on the upwelling radiance distribution at the top of the atmosphere, assumed to be at 50 km. The numerical technique is based on the finite difference method, which includes azimuth and spectral variations for the entire solar wavelength range. Detailed solar properties, atmospheric physical properties, and optical properties are used. However, since the property descriptions are based on a trade-off between accuracy and computational realities, aerosol and cloud optical properties are treated with simple approximations. The radiative transfer model is in good agreement with the satellite radiance observations. The method provides a valuable tool in analyzing satellite- and ground-based radiation budget measurements and in designing instrumentation.

Suttles, J. T.↗

Mass and energy flow near sunspots

Sunspots block the flow of energy to the solar surface. The blocked energy heats the volume beneath the spot, producing a pressure excess which drives an outflow of mass. Linear numerical models of the mass and energy flow around spots were constructed to estimate the predictions of this physical picture against the observed properties of sunspot bright rings and moat flows. The width of the bright ring and moat are predicted to be proportional to the depth of the spot penumbra, in conflict with the observed proportionality of the moat width to the spot diameter. Postulating that spot depths are proportional to spot diameters would bury the moat flow too deeply to be observed, because the radial velocity at the surface is found to be inversely proportional to the depth of the spot penumbra. The radial velocity at the surface is of order a few hundred meters per second after 1 day, in agreement with the observed excess of moat velocities over supergranule velocities.

Nye, Alan↗

Re-Analysis of the Solar Phase Curves of the Icy Galilean Satellites

Re-analysis of the solar phase curves of the icy Galilean satellites demonstrates that the quantitative results are dependent on the single particle scattering function incorporated into the photometric model; however, the qualitative properties are independent. The results presented here show that the general physical characteristics predicted by a Hapke model (B. Hapke, 1986, Icarus 67, 264-280) incorporating a two parameter double Henyey-Greenstein scattering function are similar to the predictions given by the same model incorporating a three parameter double Henyey-Greenstein scattering function as long as the data set being modeled has adequate coverage in phase angle. Conflicting results occur when the large phase angle coverage is inadequate. Analysis of the role of isotropic versus anisotropic multiple scattering shows that for surfaces as bright as Europa the two models predict very similar results over phase angles covered by the data. Differences arise only at those phase angles for which there are no data. The single particle scattering behavior between the leading and trailing hemispheres of Europa and Ganymede is commensurate with magnetospheric alterations of their surfaces. Ion bombardment will produce more forward scattering single scattering functions due to annealing of potential scattering centers within regolith particles (N. J. Sack et al., 1992, Icarus 100, 534-540). Both leading and trailing hemispheres of Europa are consistent with a high porosity model and commensurate with a frost surface. There are no strong differences in predicted porosity between the two hemispheres of Callisto, both are consistent with model porosities midway between that deduced for Europa and the Moon. Surface roughness model estimates predict that surface roughness increases with satellite distance from Jupiter, with lunar surface roughness values falling midway between those measured for Ganymede and Callisto. There is no obvious variation in predicted surface roughness with hemisphere for any of the Galilean satellites.

Domingue, Deborah↗

Observational constraints for a theoretical model describing the soft X-ray flare

High-resolution solar flare X-ray spectra have recently been obtained from X-ray spectrometer experiments flown on an Air Force spacecraft (P78-1) launched on 1979 February 24. Interpretation of the spectra has produced new results concerning the physical conditions and time behavior of the thermal soft X-ray emitting plasma at temperatures near 20,000,000 K. It is argued that soft and hard X-ray events are not causally related to each other, but are simply two different manifestations of flare energy release. They probably occur in different plasma volumes. The source of the preflare plasma appears to be in the cooler parts of the solar atmosphere, perhaps transition region loops with initial temperatures of 100,000 K and densities of 10 to the 11th per cu cm. Continuous energy input, rather than sequential activation of loops, is required to explain the observations. Compression coupled with chromospheric ablation may produce the high densities in coronal flare loops.

Feldman, U.↗

Defining the Middle Corona

The middle corona, the region roughly spanning heliocentric distances from 1.5 to 6 solar radii, encompasses almost all of the influential physical transitions and processes that govern the behavior of coronal outflow into the heliosphere. The solar wind, eruptions, and flows pass through the region, and they are shaped by it. Importantly, the region also modulates inflow from above that can drive dynamic changes at lower heights in the inner corona. Consequently, the middle corona is essential for comprehensively connecting the corona to the heliosphere and for developing corresponding global models. Nonetheless, because it is challenging to observe, the region has been poorly studied by both major solar remote-sensing and in-situ missions and instruments, extending back to the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) era. Thanks to recent advances in instrumentation, observational processing techniques, and a realization of the importance of the region, interest in the middle corona has increased. Although the region cannot be intrinsically separated from other regions of the solar atmosphere, there has emerged a need to define the region in terms of its location and extension in the solar atmosphere, its composition, the physical transitions that it covers, and the underlying physics believed to shape the region. This article aims to define the middle corona, its physical characteristics, and give an overview of the processes that occur there.

Corona↗

Design considerations for the Tandem Junction Solar Cell

Structure and operation of the tandem junction cell (TJC) are described. The impact of using only back contacts is discussed. A model is presented which explains operation of the TJC in terms of transistor action. The model is applied to predict TJC performance as a function of physical parameters.

Matzen, W. T.↗

Durable Module Materials (DuraMAT) Consortium (Final Technical Report)

The DuraMAT Consortium brings together DOE national lab and university research capabilities with the photovoltaic (PV) and supply-chain industries to accelerate a sustainable, just, and equitable transition to zero carbon electricity generation by 2035 through our five core objectives: development of a central data resource for PV modules, multi-scale and multi-physics modeling, disruptive acceleration science, forensic tools for fielded modules, and materials solutions for more durable, reliable, and resilient modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synthesis of data obtained at Jicamarca, Peru, during the September 11, 1969, eclipse.

Results of continuous measurements of electron temperatures, electron concentrations, and vertical plasma drift made at Jicamarca during the Sept. 11, 1969, solar eclipse and of control measurements made on Sept. 13, 1969. Synthesis of the observed electron concentrations was made, using a model that solved the time-dependent electron-ion continuity equations. Ions O(-), NO(+), O2(+), and N2(+) were treated. Physical and chemical processes pertinent to the F region were considered in a realistic way. At noon, 300 km above Jicamarca, the values q = 290 per cu cm per sec for the O(+) production rate, beta = 1.94 x 0.0001 per sec for the loss coefficient, and H = 59 km for the atomic oxygen scale height were obtained. All large-scale features observed in the F2 region were synthesized by the model. This synthesis was not sensitive to a simultaneous 30% reduction of q and beta.

Sterling, D. L.↗

Study of interaction among silicon, lithium, oxygen and radiation-induced defects for radiation-hardened solar cells

In order to improve reliability and the useful lifetime of solar cell arrays for space use, a program was undertaken to develop radiation-hardened lithium-doped silicon solar cells. These cells were shown to be significantly more resistant to degradation by ionized particles than the presently used n-p nonlithium-doped silicon solar cells. The results of various analyses performed to develop a more complete understanding of the physics of the interaction among lithium, silicon, oxygen, and radiation-induced defects are presented. A discussion is given of those portions of the previous model of radiation damage annealing which were found to be in error and those portions which were upheld by these extensive investigations.

Berman, P. A.↗

Low cost processes for silicon

The paper describes the multiple process development of low cost processes for manufacture of silicon. A support program includes subtasks for the modeling of reactions and reactors, chemical engineering and solid-state physics studies, and development of impurity concentration measurement procedures. The preliminary economic analyses indicate total product costs ranging from $5.00 to $8.73/kg based on 1000 MT/yr plants. In the studies of impurity effects, a model which considers that degradations of solar cell performance by impurities are primarily due to decreases in base diffusion length was constructed from experimental data.

Lutwack, R.↗

Extinct radioactivities - A three-phase mixing model

A new class of models is advanced for interpreting the relationship of radioactive abundances in the early solar system to their average concentration in the interstellar medium. The model assumes that fresh radioactivities are ejected from supernovae into the hot interstellar medium, and that the time scales for changes of phase into molecular clouds determine how much survives for formation therein of the solar system. A more realistic and physically motivated understanding of the low observed concentrations of I-129, Pu-244, and Pd-107 may result.

Clayton, D. D.↗

Scientific objectives of a Solar Probe mission

The Solar Probe is a mission of exploration and discovery in an uninvestigated region near the sun. The Solar Probe can enhance general understanding of the corona and the solar wind. The first in situ measurements of coronal particles and fields are expected to provide definitive discriminators among many currently proposed models of processes that shape the structure and dynamics of the outer corona and solar wind. In addition, observations of the development of turbulence, nonlinear wave processes, plasma heating, and particle acceleration in the corona can advance these areas of plasma physics in a regime neither duplicated by earth-based laboratories nor by previous space exploration. It also fills the last gap between knowledge of the terrestrial response to solar output as well as provide insight for interpreting observations of general stellar envelopes.

Feldman, W.↗

Enhanced orbit determination filter sensitivity analysis: Error budget development

An error budget analysis is presented which quantifies the effects of different error sources in the orbit determination process when the enhanced orbit determination filter, recently developed, is used to reduce radio metric data. The enhanced filter strategy differs from more traditional filtering methods in that nearly all of the principal ground system calibration errors affecting the data are represented as filter parameters. Error budget computations were performed for a Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario for cases in which only X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler data were used to determine the spacecraft's orbit, X-band ranging data were used exclusively, and a combined set in which the ranging data were used in addition to the Doppler data. In all three cases, the filter model was assumed to be a correct representation of the physical world. Random nongravitational accelerations were found to be the largest source of error contributing to the individual error budgets. Other significant contributors, depending on the data strategy used, were solar-radiation pressure coefficient uncertainty, random earth-orientation calibration errors, and Deep Space Network (DSN) station location uncertainty.

Estefan, J. A.↗

Rendering Three-Dimensional Solar Coronal Structures of Active Region 8227

Coronal X-ray and EUV synthesized images are constructed of Active Region 8227 (May-June 1996) and are compared with Yohkoh/SXT, SOHO/EIT, and TRACE observations. Using the rendering technique of Gary (1997) and Alexander, Gary, and Thompson (1998), specific geometric and physical models are used to integrated the plasma emission along the line of sight to obtain a rendered image. The specific instrumental profiles are convolved in the integration process as well as specific heating functions. We analyze coronal X-ray and EUV structures by constructing synthesized image and comparison with observations provide test of specific physical models. We investigate how different pressure distributions within the active region loop system affect the emission characteristics and compare the various results with coronal observations. We investigate how the different heating functions in the active region are reflected in the effect of overall structure of the region. Specific heating rates are tested.

Gary, G. A.↗

Gas Dynamics and Kinetics in the Cometary Coma: Theory and Observations

Our ability to describe the physical state of the expanding coma affects fundamental areas of cometary study both directly and indirectly. In order to convert measured abundances of gas species in the coma to gas production rates, models for the distribution and kinematics of gas species in the coma are required. Conversely, many different types of observations, together with laboratory data and theory, are still required to determine coma model attributes and parameters. Accurate relative and absolute gas production rates and their variations with time and from comet to comet are crucial to our basic understanding of the composition and structure of cometary nuclei and their place in the solar system. We review the gas dynamics and kinetics of cometary comae from both theoretical and observational perspectives, which are important for understanding the wide variety of physical conditions that are encountered.

Combi, Michael R.↗