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At least 793 records · Page 44

Time-dependent approximation schemes for some problems of parameter estimation in distributed systems

A parameter estimation method that can be used to estimate functional parameters in delay differential equations and moving boundary problems is discussed. In either problem, the original model equation (which is infinite-dimensional) is approximated by a system of ordinary differential equations that can be solved numerically in an efficient way. The approximation scheme is based on time-dependent spline elements. For the delay equation with time-varying delay, convergence results are presented that indicate the estimates obtained using the approximating system. Numerical test examples converge in some sense to a best-fit parameter for the original system are included by means of which time-varying and state-dependent delays and a time-varying diffusion coefficient in a one-phase, one-dimensional Stefan problem are estimated.

Murphy, K. A.↗

Impacts of phase state and water content on secondary organic aerosol formation and partitioning (Final Technical Report)

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) account for a major fraction of particulate matter in the atmosphere, affecting climate, air quality, and public health. SOA formation and evolution are highly complex processes involving both chemical reactions and transport of molecules in air, at particle surfaces, and within particles. The state of the matter, or “phase state,” comprising SOA can vary from a liquid, over an amorphous semi-solid, to a glassy solid, depending on chemical composition, water content, relative humidity (RH), and temperature. The occurrence of glassy and amorphous semi-solid states can pose limitations on the rate of transport of molecules, affecting gas-particle interactions and challenging the treatment of SOA in atmospheric models. The objective of this project was to improve fundamental understanding of the interplay of the phase state of particles and water content on the evolution of SOA formation. We have developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (T g ) of organic compounds to predict the phase state and viscosity of SOA. This method has been applied to high resolution mass spectrometry data of various types of SOA, achieving a good agreement with viscosity measurements. In addition, the viscosity estimation method was implemented into a regional model CMAQ to simulate diel and seasonal variations of SOA phase state over the U.S. Applying kinetic multilayer modeling, we analyzed laboratory experiments and ARM field measurements (e.g., HI-SCALE) on kinetic limitations of amine uptake. We have also conducted numerical simulations to estimate equilibration timescales of SOA partitioning. Overall, we have evaluated the impacts of phase state and water content on SOA lifecycle that should contribute to reducing the uncertainty of SOA representation in regional climate and air quality predictions. The project has yielded 17 publications, in which DE-SC0018349 is explicitly acknowledged. Please see the list of publications as below, followed by summary of research activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

JCL↗

Optical veiling, disk accretion, and the evolution of T Tauri stars

High-resolution spectra of 31 K7-M1 T Tauri stars (TTs) in the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud demonstrate that most of these objects exhibit substantial excess emission at 5200 A. Extrapolations of these data consistent with low-resolution spectrophotometry indicate that the extra emission is comparable to the stellar luminosity in many cases. If this continuum emission arises in the boundary layers of accreting disks, more than about 30 percent of all TTs may be accreting material at a rate which is sufficiently rapid to alter their evolution from standard Hayashi tracks. It is estimated that roughly 10 percent of the final stellar mass is accreted in the TT phase. This amount of material is comparable to the minimum gravitationally unstable disk mass estimated by Larson and it is speculated that the TT phase represents the final stages of disk accretion driven by gravitational instabilities.

Hartmann, Lee W.↗

An improved method for simultaneous determination of frictional pressure drop and vapor volume fraction in vertical flow boiling

The two-phase frictional pressure drop and vapor volume fraction in the vertical boiling and adiabatic flow of the refrigerant, R11, have been simultaneously measured by a liquid balancing column and differential magnetic reluctance pressure transducers. An account is given of the experimental apparatus and procedure, data acquisition and analysis, and error estimation employed. All values of two-phase multipliers evaluated on the basis of the measured frictional pressure drop data in vertical upflow fall in the range bounded by the predictions of the Chisholm correlation and the homogeneous model.

Klausner, J. F.↗

A vehicle health monitoring system for the Space Shuttle Reaction Control System during reentry

A general two tier framework for vehicle health monitoring of Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C) system actuators, effectors, and propulsion devices is presented. In this context, a top level monitor that estimates jet thrust is designed for the Space Shuttle Reaction Control System (RCS) during the reentry phase of flight. Issues of importance for the use of estimation technologies in vehicle health monitoring are investigated and quantified for the Shuttle RCS demonstration application. These issues include rate of convergence, robustness to unmodeled dynamics, sensor quality, sensor data rates, and information recording objectives. Closed loop simulations indicate that a Kalman filter design is sensitive to modeling error and robust estimators may reduce this sensitivity. Jet plume interaction with the aerodynamic flowfield is shown to be a significant effect adversely impacting the ability to accurately estimate thrust.

Rosello, Anthony David↗

Predicting zeolites’ stability during the corrosion of nuclear waste immobilization glasses: Comparison with glass corrosion experiments

During the long-term corrosion of nuclear waste glasses under nuclear waste disposal conditions, the precipitation of zeolitic phases has been linked to a delayed acceleration in glass corrosion (known as “Stage III”). Hence, predicting the thermodynamic propensity for zeolites to form upon the dissolution of nuclear waste glasses is key to ensure their long-term performance. Here, we compile a unified, internally-consistent thermodynamic database “clay20” to estimate the stability of clay and feldspar phases relevant to nuclear waste immobilization glasses, including beidellite(Mg, Ca, Na, K), kaolinite, montmorillonite(Mg, Ca, Na, K), nontronite(Mg, Ca, Na, K), saponite(Ca, Na, K), and albite. Based on this, we report a geochemical modeling method allowing us to predict the stability of secondary phases (including zeolites, calcium–silicate–hydrate gels, and clays) upon the dissolution of nuclear waste immobilization glasses. We show that this approach offers a realistic description of the stability of the secondary phases forming during the dissolution of two archetypical model nuclear glasses (namely, the International Simple Glass, ISG, and WVUTh-203) under conditions relevant to nuclear waste disposal (T = 90°C, p = 1 bar) as a function of pH. We find that the formation of silica and clay secondary phases is thermodynamically favored at low pH (pH < 10), whereas, in contrast, zeolite (analcime) and calcium–silicate–hydrate phases are favored at high pH (pH > 10.5). This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e., not solely kinetics) plays a key role in determining the range of solution pH wherein stage III corrosion may occur, i.e., when zeolite formation is favored.

Zhen-Wu, Bi Yun↗

SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force

The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well–known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential influences of Earth’s Coriolis force on shear–wave polarization measurements by conducting 3D numerical simulations for elastic waves generated by earthquake and explosive sources in a radially symmetric, and 3D mantle and crustal models. The Coriolis force can produce polarization anomalies of mantle shear waves up to 7° and core phases, such as SKS and SKKS, up to 4°. Uncorrected shear–wave polarizations due to the Coriolis force can cause an additional source of error (5°–10° in fast direction, and 0.2–0.3 s delay time depending on the method and seismic phase), inaccurate interpretation of station misalignments, and imprecise estimates of the core–mantle boundary topography. We show how to correct for the Coriolis force on teleseismic shear waves using 1D ray tracing for well–isolated phases. Here, we recommend the use of full waveform simulations to accurately account for earthquake sources parameters, poorly isolated phases that could include interfering phase arrivals within the measurement time window, and the effect of the Coriolis force on the polarizations of shear waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

Early Petrologic Processes on the Ureilite Parent Body

We present a petrographic and petrologic analysis of 21 olivine-pigeonite ureilites, along with new experimental results on melt compositions predicted to be in equilibrium with ureilite compositions. We conclude that these ureilites are the residues of a partial melting/smelting event. Textural evidence preserved in olivine and pigeonite record the extent of primary smelting. In pigeonite cores, we observe fine trains of iron metal inclusions that formed by the reduction of olivine to pigeonite and metal during primary smelting. Olivine cores lack metal inclusions but the outer grain boundaries are variably reduced by a late-stage reduction event. The modal proportion of pigeonite and percentage of olivine affected by late stage reduction are inversely related and provide an estimation of the degree of primary smelting during ureilite petrogenesis. In our sample suite, this correlation holds for 16 of the 21 samples examined. Olivine-pigeonite-liquid phase equilibrium constraints are used to obtain temperature estimates for the ureilite samples examined. Inferred smelting temperatures range from approximately 1150 C to just over 1300 C and span the range of estimates published for ureilites containing two or more pyroxenes. Temperature is also positively correlated with modal percent pigeonite. Smelting temperature is inversely correlated with smelting depth--the hottest olivine-pigeonite ureilites coming from the shallowest depth in the ureilite parent body. The highest temperature samples also have oxygen isotopic signatures that fall toward the refractory inclusion-rich end of the carbonaceous chondrite-anhydrous mineral (CCAM) slope 1 mixing line. These temperature-depth variations in the ureilite parent body could have been created by a heterogeneous distribution of heat producing elements, which would indicate that isotopic heterogeneities existed in the material from which the ureilite parent body was assembled.

Singletary, S. J.↗

Constructing the 'Best' Reliability Data for the Job - Developing Generic Reliability Data from Alternative Sources Early in a Product's Development Phase

Reliability practitioners advocate getting reliability involved early in a product development process. However, when assigned to estimate or assess the (potential) reliability of a product or system early in the design and development phase, they are faced with lack of reasonable models or methods for useful reliability estimation. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, analysts attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support the assessments. Industries, consortia and vendors across many areas have spent decades collecting, analyzing and tabulating fielded item and component reliability performance in terms of observed failures and operational use. This data resource provides a huge compendium of information for potential use, but can also be compartmented by industry, difficult to find out about, access, or manipulate. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing these existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component. It can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. It also establishes a baseline prior that may updated based on test data or observed operational constraints and failures, i.e., using Bayesian techniques. This tutorial presents a descriptive compilation of historical data sources across numerous industries and disciplines, along with examples of contents and data characteristics. It then presents methods for combining failure information from different sources and mathematical use of this data in early reliability estimation and analyses.

Kleinhammer, Roger K.↗

The digital phase-locked loop as a near-optimum FM demodulator.

This paper presents an approach to the optimum digital demodulation of a continuous-time FM signal using stochastic estimation theory. The primary result is a digital phase-locked loop realization possessing performance characteristics that approach those of the analog counterpart. Some practical considerations are presented and simulation results for a first-order message model are presented.

Kelly, C. N.↗

The Information Content of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar: Vegetation and Underlying Surface Topography

Drawing from recently submitted work, this paper first gives a heuristic description of the sensitivity of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (INSAR) to vertical vegetation distribution and under laying surface topography. A parameter estimation scenario is then described in which the INSAR cross correlation amplitude and phase are the observations from which vegetation and surface topographic parameters are estimated. It is shown that, even in the homogeneous layer model of the vegetation, the number of parameters needed to describe the vegetation and underlying topography exceeds the number of INSAR observations for single baseline, single frequency, single incidence-angle, single polarization INSAR. Using ancillary ground truth data to compensate for the under determination of the parameters, forest depths are estimated from the INSAR data. A recently analyzed multi-baseline data set is also discussed and the potential for stand alone INSAR parameter estimation is assessed. The potential of combining the information content of INSAR with that of infrared/optical remote sensing data is briefly discussed.

Treuhaft, Robert N.↗

Assessing mechanical response of CO 2 storage into a depleted carbonate reef using a site-scale geomechanical model calibrated with field tests and InSAR monitoring data

Geomechanical risks of injection have raised concerns regarding secure CO 2 storage. In this work, a combined monitoring and modeling approach is used to assess the stress changes and surface uplift associated with CO 2 injection into a depleted carbonate reef of the Michigan basin. A site-scale geomechanical model is built by assigning mechanical properties of formations using well-log and experimental data. Gravity load is applied to the model to estimate the vertical component of stress as well as different lateral boundary displacement scenarios to estimate horizontal stresses. We used a poroelastic pressure-dependent model (instead of a linear elastic mechanical earth model) to calibrate initial stresses using hydraulic fracture test data measured at depleted reservoir status. Multi-phase fluid flow-geomechanical simulations are performed to estimate the poroelastic response during (1) primary depletion (2) field-scale CO 2 injection phase (3) a hypothetical forecast scenario in which well bottom hole pressure (BHP) reach 45000 KPa. The predicted surface uplift is less than 1 mm at the end of the field-scale CO 2 injection phase which is in good agreement with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) uplift measurement. Although the InSAR data shows an insignificant uplift, hydromechanical modeling of injection shows that CO 2 injection still causes reservoir deformation emphasizing the role of carbonate overburden and reservoir formation mechanical properties and limited size of reef on diminishing the surface deformation. Modeling indicates poroelastic response of caprock matters to estimate uplift. The lower permeability of the top two layers provides additional barrier to large uplift. Also, history of subsidence due to production should be accounted to predict uplift due to a follow up injection correctly. This report shows the significance of combining a calibrated geomechanical model with field measured stresses and monitoring data to be used as a tool to ensure the safety of CO 2 storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extended Kalman Filter Performance on the Artemis-1 Mission

The Artemis Program is NASA’s campaign to explore the Moon and beyond. Artemis-1, the uncrewed exoLEO test flight of the Orion spacecraft, was completed in 2022. There were four navigation Extended Kalman Filters (EKFs) that are part of the Orion navigation system. The Atmospheric Extended Kalman Filter (ATMEKF) estimates the vehicle position, velocity, and attitude (referred to as the vehicle state) during the ascent and entry phases of flight. Once Orion is outside of Earths atmosphere, the Earth Orbit Extended Kalman Filter (EOEKF) and CisLunar Extended Kalman Filter (CLEKF) estimate the translational states, depending on the phase of flight, while the Attitude Extended Kalman Filter (ATTEKF) estimates the rotational state of the vehicle. The Kalman filters propagate the vehicle state forward in time using a combination of dynamics models and the output data from the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). The filters update the vehicle states and associated uncertainties, in the form of the covariance matrix, using pseudorange measurements from GPS (in ATMEKF/EOEKF), optical navigation measurements of the Earth or Moon (in CLEKF), and star tracker measurements (in ATTEKF). Simultaneously, the Kalman filters estimate error sources in the sensors, which are included in the state vectors as Exponentially Correlated Random Variables (ECRVs). This paper will summarize the performance of these filters during the Artemis-1 mission.

Artemis-1↗

Autonomic neural control of dynamic cerebral autoregulation in humans

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the present study was to determine the role of autonomic neural control of dynamic cerebral autoregulation in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured arterial pressure and cerebral blood flow (CBF) velocity in 12 healthy subjects (aged 29+/-6 years) before and after ganglion blockade with trimethaphan. CBF velocity was measured in the middle cerebral artery using transcranial Doppler. The magnitude of spontaneous changes in mean blood pressure and CBF velocity were quantified by spectral analysis. The transfer function gain, phase, and coherence between these variables were estimated to quantify dynamic cerebral autoregulation. After ganglion blockade, systolic and pulse pressure decreased significantly by 13% and 26%, respectively. CBF velocity decreased by 6% (P<0.05). In the very low frequency range (0.02 to 0.07 Hz), mean blood pressure variability decreased significantly (by 82%), while CBF velocity variability persisted. Thus, transfer function gain increased by 81%. In addition, the phase lead of CBF velocity to arterial pressure diminished. These changes in transfer function gain and phase persisted despite restoration of arterial pressure by infusion of phenylephrine and normalization of mean blood pressure variability by oscillatory lower body negative pressure. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that dynamic cerebral autoregulation is altered by ganglion blockade. We speculate that autonomic neural control of the cerebral circulation is tonically active and likely plays a significant role in the regulation of beat-to-beat CBF in humans.

Non-NASA Center↗

Vector Observation-Aided/Attitude-Rate Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Oshman, Yaakov↗

Advanced risk assessment of the effects of graphite fibers on electronic and electric equipment, phase 1

A model was developed to generate quantitative estimates of the risk associated with the release of graphite fibers during fires involving commercial aircraft constructed with graphite fiber composite materials. The model was used to estimate the risk associated with accidents at several U.S. airports. These results were then combined to provide an estimate of the total risk to the nation.

Pocinki, L. S.↗