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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Relation Between Magnetospheric State Parameters and the Occurrence of Plasma Depletion Events in the Nighttime Midlatitude F Region

Studies using all-sky imagers have revealed the presence of various ionospheric irregularities in the nighttime midlatitude F region. The most prevalent and well known of these are the medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) that usually occur when the geomagnetic activity is low and midlatitude spread F plumes that are often observed when the geomagnetic activity is high. The inverse and direct relations between geomagnetic activity and the occurrence rate of MSTIDs and midlatitude plumes, respectively, have been observed by several studies using different instruments; however, most of them focus on MSTIDs only and use only Kp to characterize geomagnetic activity. In order to understand the underlying causes of these two relations and to distinguish between MSTIDs and plumes, it is illuminating to better characterize the occurrence of MSTIDs and plumes using multiple magnetospheric state parameters. Here we statistically compare multiple geomagnetic driver and response parameters (such as Kp, AE, Dst, and solar wind parameters) with the occurrence rates of nighttime MSTIDs and plumes observed using an all ]sky imager at Arecibo Observatory (AO) between 2003 and 2008. We also present seasonal and annual variations of MSTIDs and plumes at AO. The results not only allow us to better distinguish MSTIDs and plumes, but also to shed further light on the generation mechanism and electrodynamics of these two different phenomena occurring at nighttime in the midlatitude F region.

Seker, Ilgin↗
NASA NTRS2016

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism

The purpose of covariance realism is to properly size a primary object's covariance in order to add validity to the calculation of the probability of collision. The covariance realism technique in this paper consists of three parts: collection/calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics. An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) method is employed to determine if a covariance is properly sized by comparing the empirical distribution of Mahalanobis distance calculations to the hypothesized parent 3-DoF chi-squared distribution. To realistically size a covariance for collision probability calculations, this study uses a state noise compensation algorithm that adds process noise to the definitive epoch covariance to account for uncertainty in the force model. Process noise is added until the GOF tests pass a group significance level threshold. The results of this study indicate that when outliers attributed to persistently high or extreme levels of solar activity are removed, the aforementioned covariance realism compensation method produces a tuned covariance with up to 80 to 90% of the covariance propagation timespan passing (against a 60% minimum passing threshold) the GOF tests-a quite satisfactory and useful result.

Realism↗
NASA NTRS2016

Does a Relationship Between Arctic Low Clouds and Sea Ice Matter?

Arctic low clouds strongly affect the Arctic surface energy budget. Through this impact Arctic low clouds influence important aspects of the Arctic climate system, namely surface and atmospheric temperature, sea ice extent and thickness, and atmospheric circulation. Arctic clouds are in turn influenced by these elements of the Arctic climate system, and these interactions create the potential for Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks. To further our understanding of potential Arctic cloudclimate feedbacks, the goal of this paper is to quantify the influence of atmospheric state on the surface cloud radiative effect (CRE) and its covariation with sea ice concentration (SIC). We build on previous research using instantaneous, active remote sensing satellite footprint data from the NASA A-Train. First, the results indicate significant differences in the surface CRE when stratified by atmospheric state. Second, there is a weak covariation between CRE and SIC for most atmospheric conditions. Third, the results show statistically significant differences in the average surface CRE under different SIC values in fall indicating a 3-5 W m(exp -2) larger LW CRE in 0% versus 100% SIC footprints. Because systematic changes on the order of 1 W m(exp -2) are sufficient to explain the observed long-term reductions in sea ice extent, our results indicate a potentially significant amplifying sea ice-cloud feedback, under certain meteorological conditions, that could delay the fall freeze-up and influence the variability in sea ice extent and volume. Lastly, a small change in the frequency of occurrence of atmosphere states may yield a larger Arctic cloud feedback than any cloud response to sea ice.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing A Continuous Ozone Record Through the SAGE and Aura Missions With NASA Reanalysis Products

During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the loss and the subsequent recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Due to the employed solar occultation and self-calibration method, the SAGE monitors have produced stable data throughout the lifetime of each instrument. However, over ten years passed between the end of the SAGE II and SAGE III/M3M missions in 2005 and the launch of SAGE III/ISS instrument in 2017, leaving a gap in the data that much be bridged in order to assess the trends in the ozone record. Reanalysis products, such as the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are attractive candidates for trend analysis due to the statistically optimized combination of multiple observing systems and the regular temporal and spatial coverage. In this study, we explore using the SAGE records to develop a stable reanalysis data product, suitable for trend analysis, from the start of the SAGE II record in 1984 through the present. Changes in the assimilated observation systems can introduce discontinuities within the MERRA-2 ozone record, such as in 2004 when the MERRA-2 system shifted from assimilating ozone retrievals collected by SBUV instruments to those collected by instruments onboard the Aura satellite. We follow the radiative transfer procedure outlined by Wargan et al. (2018) to address discontinuities in the MERRA-2 ozone dataset at the 2004 transition and during the Aura record. SAGE II ozone profiles are used to address discontinuities in upper stratospheric ozone associated with changes in the MERRA-2 meteorological observing system in 1998 and 1995. Lastly, we will use the resulting bias-corrected MERRA-2 ozone fields to assess the relative performance of the data from different SAGE sensors.

SAGE↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Properties of SGR 1900+14 Bursts

We study the statistics of soft gamma repeater (SGR) bursts, using a data base of 187 events detected with BATSE and 837 events detected with RXTE PCA, all from SGR 1900+14 during its 1998-1999 active phase. we find that the fluence or energy distribution of bursts is consistent with a power law of index 1.66, over 4 orders of magnitude. This scale-free distribution resembles the Gutenberg-Richter Law for earthquakes, and gives evidence for self-organized criticality in SGRS. The distribution of time intervals between successive bursts from SGR 1900+14 is consistent with a log-normal distribution. There is no correlation between burst intensity and the waiting times till the next burst, but there is some evidence for a correlation between burst intensity and the time elapsed since the previous burst. We also find a correlation between the duration and the energy of the bursts, but with significant scatter. In all these statistical properties, SGR bursts resemble earthquakes and solar flares more closely than they resemble any known accretion-powered or nuclear-powered phenomena. Thus our analysis lends support to the hypothesis that the energy source for SGR bursts is internal to the neutron star, and plausibly magnetic.

Gogus, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS1977

Seismic energy transmission in an intensively scattering environment

In order to account for some special features of lunar seismograms, namely, the gradual build-up of the signal, the extremely prolonged tail, and the lack of apparent coherence among three orthogonal components of ground motion, a statistical approach is proposed for describing transmission of seismic energy through a medium in which strong scattering takes place. A seismic diffusion theory is presented for a medium with randomly distributed scatterers of a given size distribution. A solution of the resulting diffusion equation for an impulsive energy source gives a curve which fairly closely reproduces the envelope of typical lunar impact seismograms. Since the model is based on constant diffusivity, long-range transmission will require a combination of diffusion and wave propagation treatments for accurate description.

Nakamura, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Criteria for the use of regression analysis for remote sensing of sediment and pollutants

An examination of limitations, requirements, and precision of the linear multiple-regression technique for quantification of marine environmental parameters is conducted. Both environmental and optical physics conditions have been defined for which an exact solution to the signal response equations is of the same form as the multiple regression equation. Various statistical parameters are examined to define a criteria for selection of an unbiased fit when upwelled radiance values contain error and are correlated with each other. Field experimental data are examined to define data smoothing requirements in order to satisfy the criteria of Daniel and Wood (1971). Recommendations are made concerning improved selection of ground-truth locations to maximize variance and to minimize physical errors associated with the remote sensing experiment.

Whitlock, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Stellar contributions to the diffuse soft X-ray background

One of the results of the EINSTEIN/C.f.A. X-ray stellar survey was a determination of the contribution of the disk stellar population to the galactic component of the diffuse soft (0.28 - 1.0 keV) X-ray background. This analysis employed both binned and unbinned nonparametric statistical methods that have been developed by Avni, et al. (1980). These methods permitted the use of the information contained in both the 22 detections and 4 upper bounds on the luminosities of 26 dM stars in order to derive their luminosity function. Luminosity functions for earlier stellar types are not yet developed. For these earlier stellar types, the median luminosities as determined by Vaiana, et al., are used (1981), which underestimates their contribution to the background. We find that it is the M dwarfs that dominate the disk population stellar contribution to this background. To calculate the contribution of the stellar sources to the background, simple models both for the spatial distribution of the stars and for the properties of the intervening interstellar medium are used. A model is chosen in which all stellar classes have the same functional form for their spatial distribution: an exponentially decreasing distribution above the galactic equatorial plane, and a uniform distribution within the galactic plane for a region of several kiloparsecs centered on the Sun.

Bookbinder, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of LANDSAT-D Orbit Determination Using a Filter/Smoother (PREFER)

Simulated range and range rate data for five tracking stations were first generated using batch least squares orbit determination (GTDS). Then GTDS was used (in the differential correction mode) to produce a nominal trajectory which was input to PREFER. The GTDS differential correction (DC) run was made using models which differed from those used to produce the simulated data. These model differences were chosen to be fairly realistic approximations to the errors in the models actually used for operational orbit determination. Several different simulation runs were made with different types of model errors in order to determine the sensitivity to these errors. The nominal trajectory and the simulated measurement data were input to PREFER to produce a smoothed ephemeris file. Numerous runs of PREFER were made in which parameters describing the statistics of the model errors were varied. The likelihood function computed by the Kalman filter determined the ""best'' choice of input parameters. There was strong negative correlation between the likelihood function and the errors in the smoothed ephemeris.

Gibbs, B. P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The attractor dimension of solar decimetric radio pulsations

The temporal characteristics of decimetric pulsations and related radio emissions during solar flares are analyzed using statistical methods recently developed for nonlinear dynamic systems. The results of the analysis is consistent with earlier reports on low-dimensional attractors of such events and yield a quantitative description of their temporal characteristics and hidden order. The estimated dimensions of typical decimetric pulsations are generally in the range of 3.0 + or - 0.5. Quasi-periodic oscillations and sudden reductions may have dimensions as low as 2. Pulsations of decimetric type IV continua have typically a dimension of about 4.

Kurths, J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Tail lobe ion composition at energies of 0.1 to 16 keV/e: Evidence for mass-dependent density gradients

A large set of energetic (0.1 to 16 keV/e) ion composition data from the central magnetotail, obtained by the ISEE 1 spacecraft between 10 and 23R(sub E) from Earth, is sorted according to measured total ion beta value, in order to investigate whether bulk properties of different ions vary in different ways between plasma sheets and lobes, as suggested by a comparison of certain experimental and theoretical results in the literature. Despite inevitable difficulties with extracting statistically valid data at very low beta (10(exp -2) or lower), the results seem to support a recent theoretical model suggesting that lighter ions have a steeper density gradient than heavier ions, especially when comparing H(+) ions with O(+) ions. The results also indicate that ion velocity distributions are fairly isotropic even at low beta, at least those of H(+) ions, although field-aligned flows are common. The results are evaluated in the context of plasma transport and are found to lend some support to the notion that tail lobe convection may be directed inward from the dawn and dusk flanks.

Lennartsson, O. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Tail lobe ion composition at energies of 0.1 to 16 keV/e: Evidence for mass-dependent density gradients

A large set of energetic (0.1- to 16-keV/e) ion composition data from the central magnetotail, obtained by the International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) 1 spacecraft between 10 and 23 R(sub E) from Earth, is sorted according to measured total ion beta value, in order to investigate whether bulk properties of different ions vary in different ways between plasma sheet and lobes, as suggested by a comparison of certain experimental and theoretical results in the literature. Despite inevitable difficulties with extracting statistically valid data at very low beta (10(exp -2) or lower), the results seem to support a recent theoretical model suggesting that lighter ions have a steeper density gradient than heavier ions, especially when comparing H(+) ions with O(+) ions. The results also indicate that ion velocity distributions are fairly isotropic even at low beta, at least those of H(+) ions, although field-aligned flows are common. The results are evaluated in the context of plasma transport and are found to lend some support to the notion that tail lobe convection may be directed inward from the dawn and dusk flanks.

Lennartsson, O. W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by rain decreases, as the size of a pixel becomes smaller. This means that within what looks like a patch of rainy area in a coarse resolution view with larger pixel size, one finds clusters of rainy and dry patches when viewed on a finer scale. The model makes definite predictions about how these and other related statistics depend on the pixel size. These predictions were found to agree well with data. In a subsequent second part of the work we plan to test the model with rain gauge data collected during the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) ground validation campaign.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Delta Method Application for the Correlation of IR Detector Thermal Parasitic Loads with Statistically Accurate Results

The Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) is a cryogenic IR detector that is passively cooled below 110K. LEISA is part of the L’Ralph instrument, which is going on the Lucy mission, with planned flyby’s of the Trojan asteroids around 5.5 AU. One of the primary thermal challenges is to successfully quantify each significant parasitic heat flow value with statistical certainty.Simulation of flight-like thermal environments and correlation of thermal models is an important part of this challenge, which can be critical for thermally sensitive systems such as cryogenic detectors that are passively cooled. It is common practice during TVAC to achieve several thermal balance points and then to correlate several design variables in order to achieve the closest match to all balance points tested. This approach lends itself to high levels of uncertainty in the correlated values due to the cumulative effect of absolute temperature uncertainty and differences between the sensors used for the measurement. Accuracy can be improved with the use of more accurate sensors, by calibrating all sensors with respect to each other, and by using Zero-Q methodologies, all of which add cost and complexity to the test.The Delta Method uses the difference in temperature caused by the changes in the boundary conditions to calculate heat flows and/or thermal resistances across temperature differentials. This eliminates the problem of high uncertainties with absolute temperature measurements, and yields statistically accurate results down to the sensor resolution of 1mK at < 100K, by taking the sensor’s calibration errors out of the equation. During testing, this method relies on parametric variations around an initial balance point, by varying the boundary conditions of the different parasitic heat sources. The Delta Method, as well as its application on the LEISA thermal test, will be discussed in detail.

Daniel G. Bae↗
NASA NTRS1972

Mars gravitational field estimation error

The error covariance matrices associated with a weighted least-squares differential correction process have been analyzed for accuracy in determining the gravitational coefficients through degree and order five in the Mars gravitational potential junction. The results are presented in terms of standard deviations for the assumed estimated parameters. The covariance matrices were calculated by assuming Doppler tracking data from a Mars orbiter, a priori statistics for the estimated parameters, and model error uncertainties for tracking-station locations, the Mars ephemeris, the astronomical unit, the Mars gravitational constant (G sub M), and the gravitational coefficients of degrees six and seven. Model errors were treated by using the concept of consider parameters.

Compton, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Parameter uncertainties in control system design.

Development of a design method for including the effects of parameter uncertainties in the design of linear control systems. The approach taken to this problem may be classified as a special case of the stochastic control problem. Thus the formulation is based on the minimization of the expected value of a quadratic performance index defined in terms of the system state vector. The uncertainty in the value of the performance index is the result of the statistical nature of the system parameters rather than a random input signal. It is shown that the expected value of the performance index may be written as a sum of two terms under the assumption of first-order variations of the system state. The first of these terms expresses the nominal performance of the system when the system parameters assume their mean values. The second term represents the effect of the uncertainties on the expected value of the performance index, and is interpreted as an index of system sensitivity.

Palsson, T.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Cratering on Mars. I - Cratering and obliteration history. II Implications for future cratering studies from Mariner 4 reanalysis

It is pointed out that Mars is especially well adapted to statistical studies of crater morphologies for deciphering its geological history. A framework for understanding planetary geomorphological histories from the diameter-frequency relations of different morphological classes of craters described by Chapmam et al. (1970) is extended in order to understand Martian cratering, erosional, and depositional history. The cratering-obliteration history derived is compared with global interpretations considered by Hartman (1973) and Soderblom et al. (1974). An idealized dust-filling model is employed.

Chapman, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cloud fluctuation statistics

A space-time statistical analysis of total outgoing infrared radiation is used to determine the gross features of day-to-day cloudiness fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean in summer and winter. IR fluctuations arise from the passage of cloudiness systems through a grid box as well as the creation and destruction of cloudiness in the box. Which process dominates depends upon the size of the box relative to the size, speed and persistence time of a typical cloudiness system. In most regions the statistical analysis yields advection speeds characteristic of 700 mb mean flow with spatial dependence resembling the 300 mb mean flow. Spatial scales less than 2000 km predominate, smaller scales having less persistence. Characteristic time scales are on the order of one or two days, even for a grid box spanning the entire North Pacific storm track. This result is remarkable in view of the much longer time scales commonly associated with atmospheric disturbances. Apparently many cloudiness systems are created and destroyed during the lifetime of a single disturbance.

Cahalan, R. F.↗