Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “ocean sciences”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Data-link alternatives for the NASA pilot data systems

There are several preliminary, or pilot, efforts for developing data systems for supporting NASA science research. The Pilot Data Systems consist of the Pilot Land Data System (PLDS), the Pilot Ocean Data System (PODS), the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS), and the Pilot Planetary Data System (PPDS). The PLDS is likely to have the greatest communication needs of the various pilots. Communications issues and requirements are examined in the context of the mature PLDS as it may exist by 1990. The PLDS is seen as a distributed processing system linking resources at a number of NASA research centers and outside universities. Large image data sets, including LANDSAT scenes, are a major data type to be moved along the PLDS communications network. The unusually large size of these data files requires examining new technologies that may allow efficient and affordable communication at rates of up to 60 megabits per second. Potentially useful developments include portable satellite ground stations, and time division multiple access for sharing high-speed satellite links. Further pooling of communications for the various data systems into a single network would reduce costs and may make economic justification of access to the required data rates possible.

Likens, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

MALDI for Europa Planetary Science and Exobiology

TOF MS for Europa landed science can identify small molecules of the cryosphere and complex biomolecules upwelling from a subsurface water ocean. A matrix-assisted laser-desorption ionization (MALDI) testbed for cryo-ice mixtures is being developed.

Wdowiak, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Retrieval of Ocean Surface Windspeed and Rainrate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Brightness Temperature Observations

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne synthetic aperture passive microwave radiometer capable of wide swath imaging of the ocean surface wind speed under heavy precipitation e.g. in tropical cyclones. It uses interferometric signal processing to produce upwelling brightness temperature (Tb) images at its four operating frequencies 4, 5, 6 and 6.6 GHz [1,2]. HIRAD participated in NASA s Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) mission during 2010 as its first science field campaign. It produced Tb images with ~70 km swath width and 3 km resolution from a ~ 20 km altitude. From this, ocean surface wind speed and column averaged atmospheric liquid water content can be retrieved across the swath. The column averaged liquid water then could be related to an average rain rate. The retrieval algorithm (and the HIRAD instrument itself) is a direct descendant of the nadir-only Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer that is used operationally by the NOAA Hurricane Research Division to monitor tropical cyclones [3,4]. However, due to HIRAD s slant viewing geometry (compared to nadir viewing SFMR) a major modification is required in the algorithm. Results based on the modified algorithm from the GRIP campaign will be presented in the paper.

Biswas, Sayak K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Overview of Terra

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. During the last couple of years, seven EOS science missions were launched, representing observations of (i) total solar irradiance, (ii) Earth radiation budget, (iii) land cover & land use change, (iv) ocean processes (vector wind, sea surface temperature, ocean topography, and ocean color), (v) atmospheric processes (aerosol and cloud properties, water vapor, and temperature and moisture profiles), (v) tropospheric chemistry, (vi) sea ice concentration, and (viii) precipitation. In succeeding years many more satellites will be launched that will contribute immeasurably to our understanding of the Earth's environment. In this lecture I will describe how scientists are using NASA's Earth science data to examine land use and natural hazards, environmental air quality, including dust storms over the world's deserts, cloud and radiation properties, sea surface temperature, and tropospheric chemistry. This lecture will describe the Terra satellite, launched in December 1999 and still operating, and each of the five sensors onboard the spacecraft. This overview will highlight the goals and objectives of this mission, and describe the contributions and unique datasets provided by each sensor. This lecture will form the background for an extensive weeklong course on Terra and all the algorithms that have been developed and implemented to process the data from this spacecraft. This lecture will include a description of the Terra orbit, launch, data communication with the spacecraft, and data processing and archival of the data.

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Algorithm Science to Operations for the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)

The VIIRS sensor provides measurements for 22 Environmental Data Records (EDRs) addressing the atmosphere, ocean surface temperature, ocean color, land parameters, aerosols, imaging for clouds and ice, and more. That is, the VIIRS collects visible and infrared radiometric data of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean, and land surfaces. Data types include atmospheric, clouds, Earth radiation budget, land/water and sea surface temperature, ocean color, and low light imagery. This wide scope of measurements calls for the preparation of a multiplicity of Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBDs), and, additionally, for intermediate products such as cloud mask, et al. Furthermore, the VIIRS interacts with three or more other sensors. This paper addresses selected and crucial elements of the process being used to convert and test an immense volume of a maturing and changing science code to the initial operational source code in preparation for launch of NPP. The integrity of the original science code is maintained and enhanced via baseline comparisons when re-hosted, in addition to multiple planned code performance reviews.

NPOESS (NATIONAL POLAR-ORBITING OPERATIONAL ENVIRO↗
NASA NTRS2004

Observation Planning Made Simple with Science Opportunity Analyzer (SOA)

As NASA undertakes the exploration of the Moon and Mars as well as the rest of the Solar System while continuing to investigate Earth's oceans, winds, atmosphere, weather, etc., the ever-existing need to allow operations users to easily define their observations increases. Operation teams need to be able to determine the best time to perform an observation, as well as its duration and other parameters such as the observation target. In addition, operations teams need to be able to check the observation for validity against objectives and intent as well as spacecraft constraints such as turn rates and acceleration or pointing exclusion zones. Science Opportunity Analyzer (SOA), in development for the last six years, is a multi-mission toolset that has been built to meet those needs. The operations team can follow six simple steps and define his/her observation without having to know the complexities of orbital mechanics, coordinate transformations, or the spacecraft itself.

observation planning operations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improving the Transition of Earth Satellite Observations from Research to Operations

There are significant gaps between the observations, models, and decision support tools that make use of new data. These challenges include: 1) Decreasing the time to incorporate new satellite data into operational forecast assimilation systems, 2) Blending in-situ and satellite observing systems to produce the most accurate and comprehensive data products and assessments, 3) Accelerating the transition from research to applications through national test beds, field campaigns, and pilot demonstrations, and 4) Developing the partnerships and organizational structures to effectively transition new technology into operations. At the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama, a NASA-NOAA-University collaboration has been developed to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The SPoRT Center research focus is to improve forecasts through new observation capability and the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues such as convective initiation and 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The near real-time availability of high-resolution experimental products of the atmosphere, land, and ocean from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Infrared Spectroradiometer (AIRS), and lightning mapping systems provide an opportunity for science and algorithm risk reduction, and for application assessment prior to planned observations from the next generation of operational low Earth orbiting and geostationary Earth orbiting satellites. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future. The SPoRT Web page is at (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport).

Goodman, Steven J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of AI/ML with Data Assimilation for Earth System Prediction

Focal Area(s): Development of dynamically consistent AI/ML methods that can integrate with the data assimilation cycle to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of state estimation and prediction at short to medium range forecast horizons. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses a first step toward complete integration of AI/ML and DA. Here, we address model emulation and its application to simple coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics for use in data assimilation applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

The GRO remote terminal system

In March 1992, NASA HQ challenged GSFC/Code 531 to propose a fast, low-cost approach to close the Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Zone-of-Exclusion (ZOE) over the Indian Ocean in order to provide global communications coverage for the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) spacecraft. GRO had lost its tape recording capability which limited its valuable science data return to real-time contacts with the TDRS-E and TDRS-W synchronous data relay satellites, yielding only approximately 62 percent of the possible data obtainable. To achieve global coverage, a TDRS spacecraft would have to be moved over the Indian Ocean out of line-of-sight control of White Sands Ground Terminal (WSGT). To minimize operations life cycle costs, Headquarters also set a goal for remote control, from the WSGT, of the overseas ground station which was required for direct communications with TDRS-1. On August 27, 1992, Code 531 was given the go ahead to implement the proposed GRO Relay Terminal System (GRTS). This paper describes the Remote Ground Relay Terminal (RGRT) which went operational at the Canberra Deep Space Communications Complex (CDSCC) in Canberra, Australia in December 1993 and is currently augmenting the TDRSS constellation in returning between 80-100 percent of GRO science data under the control of a single operator at WSGT.

Zillig, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Ocean color observations of phytoplankton distributions and primary productivity

The primary goal of this activity is to develop the means to assess the mean and variability of phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity on global scales. There are three major approaches whose goals are to provide global scale observations. These are processing and analysis of the complete CZCS data set in a consistent manner; preparing science mission and project implementation plans for the SeaWiFS sensor to be launched on LANDSAT 6 in 1991; and providing guidance to EOS flight projects for ocean color observations using the MODIS sensor planned for the Polar Platform in the mid 1990's. This processing presents the first consistent view of phytoplankton pigments on global scales, and analysis of this temporally undersampled data set is proving very instructive in specifying mission requirements for SeaWiFS and future algorithm development.

Esaias, W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Primordial Atmospheric Origin of Hydrospheric Deuterium Enrichment on Mars

The deuterium-to-hydrogen (D/H or 2H/1H) ratio of Martian atmospheric water (~6× standard mean ocean water, SMOW) is higher than that of known sources, requiring planetary enrichment. A recent measurement by NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity of Hesperian-era (>3 Ga) clays yields a D/H ratio ~3×SMOW, demonstrating that most of the enrichment occurs early in Mars’s history, reinforcing the conclusions of Martian meteorite studies. As on Venus, Mars’s D/H enrichment is widely thought to reflect preferential loss to space of 1H (protium) relative to 2H (deuterium), but both the cause and the global environmental context of large and early hydrogen losses remain to be determined. Here, we apply a recent model of primordial atmosphere evolution to Mars, link the magma ocean of the accretion epoch with a subsequent water-ocean epoch, and calculate the behavior of deuterium for comparison with the observed record. In contrast to earlier works that consider Martian D/H fractionation in atmospheres in which hydrogen reservoirs are present exclusively as H2O or H2, here we consider 2-component (H2O-H2) outgassed atmospheres in which both condensed (H2O) and escaping (H2) components – and their interaction – are explicitly calculated. We find that a a ≈2-3× hydrospheric deuterium-enrichment is produced rapidly if the Martian magma ocean is chemically reducing at last equilibration with the primordial atmosphere, making H2 and CO the initially dominant species, with minor abundances of H2O and CO2. Reducing gases – in particular H2 – can cause substantial greenhouse warming and prevent a water ocean from freezing immediately after the magma ocean epoch. We find that greenhouse warming due to plausible H2 inventories (pH2=1-102 bars) yields surface temperatures high enough (Ts=290-560 K) to stabilize a water ocean and produce an early hydrological cycle through which surface water can be circulated. Moreover, the pressure-temperature conditions are high enough to produce ocean-atmosphere H2O-H2 isotopic equilibrium through gas-phase deuterium exchange such that surface H2O strongly concentrates deuterium relative to H2, which preferentially takes up protium and escapes from the primordial atmosphere. The efficient physical separation of deuterium-rich (H2O) and deuterium-poor (H2) species via condensation permits equilibrium isotopic partitioning and early atmospheric escape to be recorded in modern crustal reservoirs. The proposed scenario of primordial H2-CO-rich outgassing and escape suggests significant durations (>Myr) of chemical conditions on the Martian surface conducive to prebiotic chemistry immediately following magma ocean crystallization.

Mars↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relative Contributions of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Coupled Processes to North Pacific and North Atlantic Variability

Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the northern oceans arise from a combination of atmospheric, oceanic, and coupled processes. In this work, we use a novel methodology and a suite of observations to quantify the processes contributing to the dominant patterns of interannual SST variability over these regions. We decompose the upper ocean heat content tendency associated with such dominant patterns into contributions from different heat fluxes: (a) atmospherically driven, (b) surface feedbacks, and (c) oceanic. We find that in the subtropics, cloud radiative flux, turbulent heat flux, and residual oceanic processes each contributes substantially to North Pacific SST variability, whereas turbulent heat flux primarily induces North Atlantic SST variability. Cloud radiative fluxes therefore provide a major source of interannual SST variability in the North Pacific but not in the North Atlantic. In midlatitudes, SST fluctuations over the northern oceans are driven by the combination of turbulent and oceanic heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compensation Between Poleward Energy Transports in the Ocean and Atmosphere. Final report

Equator-to-pole energy transport by the ocean and atmosphere is a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate. In his 1964 seminal paper, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the atmosphere fluxes and the ocean heat storage do not vary substantially, which is a reasonable assumption on long time scales, the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transports should be equal and opposite. Despite its fundamental importance in understanding the climate system, this hypothesis, the so-called Bjerknes compensation, has been tested by only a limited number of studies. The goal of our project is to investigate the degree of compensation in poleward energy transports by the atmosphere and ocean and its dependence on the time scale, latitude and background climate primarily based on a large suite of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations to test the Bjerknes compensation hypothesis. Our particular emphases are to understand: (1) robustness of the degree of the compensation across the various simulations with differing parameterizations and initial conditions, (2) the competing role of atmosphere-ocean couplings through the momentum flux and buoyancy flux in enabling or deterring the compensation, and (3) the role of compensation in the leading modes of variability in the atmosphere and ocean

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A nonhydrostatic formulation for MPAS-Ocean

The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-Ocean) is an open-source, global ocean model and is one component of a family of climate models within the MPAS framework, including atmosphere, sea-ice, and land-ice models. Here, in this work, a new formulation for the ocean model is presented that solves the nonhydrostatic, incompressible Boussinesq equations on an unstructured, staggered, z-level grid. The introduction of this nonhydrostatic capability is necessary for the resolution of internal wave dynamics and large eddy simulations. Compared to the standard, hydrostatic formulation, a nonhydrostatic pressure solver and a vertical momentum equation are added, where the PETSc (Portable Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation) library is used for the inversion of a large sparse system for the nonhydrostatic pressure. Numerical results on a stratified seiche, internal solitary wave, overflow and lock-exchange test cases are presented, and the parallel efficiency of the code is evaluated using up to 1024 processors.

3D Poisson equation↗
NASA NTRS2018

Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS): Final Report of the ASCENDS Ad Hoc Science Definition Team

Improved remote sensing observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are critically needed to quantify, monitor, and understand the Earth's carbon cycle and its evolution in a changing climate. The processes governing ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake remain poorly understood,especially in dynamic regions with large carbon stocks and strong vulnerability to climate change,for example, the tropical land biosphere, the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and the Southern Ocean. Because the passive spectrometers used by GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) require sunlit and cloud-free conditions,current observations over these regions remain infrequent and are subject to biases. These short comings limit our ability to understand and predict the processes controlling the carbon cycle on regional to global scales.In contrast, active CO2 remote-sensing techniques allow accurate measurements to be taken day and night, over ocean and land surfaces, in the presence of thin or scattered clouds, and at all times of year. Because of these benefits, the National Research Council recommended the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights,Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission in the 2007 report Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. The ability of ASCENDS to collect low-bias observations in these key regions is expected to address important gaps in our knowledge of the contemporary carbon cycle.The ASCENDS ad hoc Science Definition Team (SDT), comprised of carbon cycle modeling and active remote sensing instrument teams throughout the United States (US), worked to develop the mission's requirements and advance its readiness from 2008 through 2018. Numerous scientific investigations were carried out to identify the benefit and feasibility of active CO2 remote sensing measurements for improving our understanding of CO2 sources and sinks. This report summarizes their findings and recommendations based on mission modeling studies, analysis of ancillary meteorological data products, development and demonstration of candidate technologies, anddesign studies of the ASCENDS mission concept.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗
DOE OSTI2020

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Abstract Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗