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At least 793 records · Page 44
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NASA NTRS2020

The Role of Oceanic Processes in the Initiation of Boreal Winter Intraseasonal Oscillations Over the Indian Ocean

Observational analyses and ocean general circulation model experiments were performed to understand the influence of oceanic processes on warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) prior to convection initiation of boreal winter intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), including the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), in the tropical Indian Ocean. We found 39 strong ISOs that passed over the Indian Ocean Warm Pool (WP) region during the November–April season of the 2001–2012 period. Seventeen of them (44%) initiated over the Seychelles‐Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) before propagating eastward to the WP and Maritime Continent. Including only global‐scale MJOs, 71% (24%) of the remaining MJO events initiated from the SCTR (WP). Four (seven) SCTR (WP) ISO events were preceded by SSTAs that were strongly influenced by wind stress‐driven oceanic processes; all four (2/7) SCTR (WP) events were MJOs. Composite analyses of the four oceanic process influenced SCTR MJO events showed that wind stress‐driven oceanic processes contributed about 30% (between 0.1 and 0.2 °C) of the preconvection warming in the SCTR, which coincides with the Intertropical Convergence Zone with mean SST > 28 °C. Reduced upwelling and entrainment played a more important role than horizontal advection in elevating the +SSTAs. Case studies revealed that the two ocean process‐influenced primary MJO SCTR events were also associated with oceanic equatorial Rossby waves. Furthermore, results of a linear atmospheric mixed layer model indicated that boundary layer processes related to SSTAs contributed approximately half of the total convergence during MJO initiation, relative to the effect of the free troposphere, for the Rossby wave‐influenced events.

MJO Initiation↗
NASA NTRS2010

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

ocean circulation circulation models ocean models ↗
NASA NTRS1986

Numerical simulation of synthetic aperture radar image spectra for ocean waves

A numerical model for predicting the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image of a moving ocean surface is described, and results are presented for two SIR-B data sets collected off the coast of Chile. Wave height spectra measured by the NASA radar ocean wave spectrometer (ROWS) were used as inputs to this model, and results are compared with actual SIR-B image spectra from orbits 91 and 106. Additional parametric variations are presented to illustrate the effects of nonlinearities in the imaging process.

Lyzenga, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the structure of the Southern Oscillation

A realistic oceanic general circulation model is forced with winds observed over the tropical Pacific between 1967 and 1979. The structure of the simulated Southern Oscillation is strikingly different in the western and eastern sides of the basin, because the principal interannual zonal-wind fluctuations are confined to the west and are in the form of an equatorial jet. This causes thermocline displacements to have maxima off the equator in the west (where the curl of the wind is large) but on the equator in the east. Zonal phase propagation, both on and off the equator, is at different speeds in the west and east. The phase pattern is complex, and there is, on interannual time scale, no explicit evidence of individual equatorial waves. These results lead to a modification of the 'delayed oscillator' mechanism originally proposed by Schopf and Suarez to explain a continual Southern Oscillation. The results also permit an evaluation of the various coupled ocean-atmosphere models that simulate the Southern Oscillation and indicate which measurements are necessary to determine which models are most relevant to reality.

Chao, YI↗
NASA NTRS2018

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Magnetization of the oceanic crust: TRM or CRM?

A model was proposed in which chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) acquired within the first 20 Ma of crustal evolution may account for 80% of the bulk natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of older basalts. The CRM of the crust is acquired as the original thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) is lost through low temperature alteration. The CRM intensity and direction are controlled by the post-emplacement polarity history. This model explains several independent observations concerning the magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model accounts for amplitude and skewness discrepancies observed in both the intermediate wavelength satellite field and the short wavelength sea surface magnetic anomaly pattern. It also explains the decay of magnetization away from the spreading axis, and the enhanced magnetization of the Cretaceous Quiet Zones while predicting other systematic variations with age in the bulk magnetization of the oceanic crust. The model also explains discrepancies in the anomaly skewness parameter observed for anomalies of Cretaceous age. Further studies indicate varying rates of TRM decay in very young crust which depicts the advance of low temperature alteration through the magnetized layer.

Raymond, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

surface energy↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Numerical Study of the Liquid Motion in Titan’s Subsurface Ocean

An ocean filled with liquid water lies beneath the icy surface of several Jovian and Saturnian moons. In such an ocean, the currents are driven by various phenomena such as the tidal forcing, the deformation of the ice shell lying at its top, the temperature gradient resulting from the surface and bottom heat fluxes…The flow induced by the first two forcings can be modelled by means of a 2D depth-averaged model, while the third one generates horizontal and vertical density variations whose effects can only be captured by a 3D baroclinic model. We study the tides of Titan’s subsurface ocean and the impact of the ice shell on the liquid motion by means of the Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice–ocean Model, SLIM (https://www.climate.be/slim). The impact of the ice shell lying at the top of the ocean is modelled by a surface friction term and surface pressure terms. The latter are a function of the difference between the ocean elevation and the vertical displacement of the shell and the time derivative of this difference. Because of Titan’s appreciable obliquity (0.306°), the tidal motion expected (and found) is similar to the Europa tidal scenario described by Tyler (2008): the surface elevation consists of two bulges rotating around Titan and the associated depth-averaged velocity field consists of two gyres, separated by an area of high speed flow, whose centre follows a sinusoidal path centred on the equator. The ice shell damps the surface motion, thus slowing down the flow, without significantly modifying the spatial patterns of these fields. The depth of the ocean and the mechanical characteristics of the ice shell being poorly constrained, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The depth-averaged flow slows down when the depth is increased and a lag appears in the tidal phase but the tidal range remains similar. The ice shell mechanical characteristics influences both the elevation and depth-averaged velocity fields in terms of magnitude but does not modify the spatial patterns of these fields. The influence of the surface heat flux is studied by means of the 3D baroclinic version of SLIM. The heat flux derived from Titan’s topography by Kvorka et al. (2018) is used as surface boundary condition for the temperature equation while a uniform bottom heat flux is implemented. Its value is computed assuming that the heat budget of the ocean is at equilibrium. These boundary conditions cause density variations, which impact the hydrodynamics of the ocean. While the flow velocity induced by these variations is two orders of magnitude smaller than the tidal flow, its orientation is time-independent, hence impacting the orientation of the velocity field. Although the variations of ocean surface elevation and speed with respect to the shell mechanical properties can be larger than those induced by the surface heat flux, taking into account the latter results in large variations of the velocity field global patterns, which was not observed when modifying the shell mechanical properties. Future studies should therefore focus on modelling the surface and bottom heat fluxes while uncertainties about the mechanical characteristics of the shell can be tolerated.

Titan↗
NASA NTRS1976

Oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere - Thermal and mechanical structure

A coupled thermomechanical subsolidus model of the oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere is developed which includes vertical heat conduction, a temperature-dependent thermal conductivity, heat advection by a horizontal and vertical mass flow that depends on depth and age, contributions of viscous dissipation or shear heating, a linear or nonlinear deformation law relating shear stress and strain rate, as well as a temperature- and pressure-dependent viscosity. The model requires a constant horizontal velocity and temperature at the surface, but zero horizontal velocity and constant temperature at great depths. The depth- and age-dependent temperature, horizontal and vertical velocities, and viscosity structure of the lithosphere and asthenosphere are determined along with the age-dependent shear stress in those two zones. The ocean-floor topography, oceanic heat flow, and lithosphere thickness are deduced as functions of ocean-floor age; seismic velocity profiles which exhibit a marked low-velocity zone are constructed from the age-dependent geotherms and assumed values of the elastic parameters. It is found that simple boundary-layer cooling determines the thermal structure at young ages, while effects of viscous dissipation become more important at older ages.

Schubert, G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

High-Resolution Specification of the Land and Ocean Surface for Improving Regional Mesoscale Model Predictions

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many meteorological processes. High-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), soil temperature and moisture content, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of sensible weather. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been conducting separate studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land-surface initialization data from the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) on subsequent WRF forecasts, as well as the influence of initializing WRF with SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument. This current project addresses the combined impacts of using high-resolution lower boundary data over both land (LIS data) and water (MODIS SSTs) on the subsequent daily WRF forecasts over Florida during May 2004. For this experiment, the WRF model is configured to run on a nested domain with 9- km and 3-kin grid spacing, centered on the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A control configuration of WRF is established to take all initial condition data from the NCEP Eta model. Meanwhile, two WRF experimental runs are configured to use high-resolution initialization data from (1) LIS land-surface data only, and (2) a combination of LIS data and high-resolution MODIS SST composites. The experiment involves running 24-hour simulations of the control WRF configuration, the MS-initialized WRF, and the LIS+MODIS-initialized WRF daily for the entire month of May 2004. All atmospheric data for initial and boundary conditions for the Control, LIS, and LIS+MODIS runs come from the NCEP Eta model on a 40-km grid. Verification statistics are generated at land surface observation sites and buoys, and the impacts of the high-resolution lower boundary data on the development and evolution of mesoscale circulations such as sea and land breezes are examined, This paper will present the results of these WRF modeling experiments using LIS and MODIS lower boundary datasets over the Florida peninsula during May 2004.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Energy Balance: Reconciling Observations and Models

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in eucrites: Implications for the origin of volatile depletion in the asteroid 4 Vesta

We conducted a petrologic study of apatite within eight unbrecciated, non-cumulate eucrites and two monomict, non-cumulate eucrites. These data were combined with previously published data to quantify the abundances of F, Cl, and H2O in the bulk silicate portion of asteroid 4 Vesta (BSV). Using a combination of apatite-based melt hygrometry/chlorometry and appropriately paired volatile/refractory element ratios, we determined that BSV has 3.0–7.2 ppm F, 0.39–1.8 ppm Cl, and 3.6–22 ppm H2O. The abundances of F and H2O are depleted in BSV relative to CI chondrites to a similar degree as F and H2O in the bulk silicate portion of the Moon. This degree of volatile depletion in BSV is similar to what has been determined previously for many moderately volatile elements in 4 Vesta (e.g., Na, K, Zn, Rb, Cs, and Pb). In contrast, Cl is depleted in 4 Vesta by a greater degree than what is recorded in samples from Earth or the Moon. Based on the Cl-isotopic compositions of eucrites and the bulk rock Cl/F ratios determined in this study, the eucrites likely formed through serial magmatism of a mantle with heterogeneous δ37Cl and Cl/F, not as extracts from a partially crystallized global magma ocean. Furthermore, the volatile depletion and Cl-isotopic heterogeneity recorded in eucrites is likely inherited, at least in part, from the precursor materials that accreted to form 4 Vesta and is unlikely to have resulted solely from degassing of a global magma ocean, magmatic degassing of eucrite melts, and/or volatile loss during thermal metamorphism. Although our results can be reconciled with the past presence of wide-scale melting on 4 Vesta (i.e., a partial magma ocean), any future models for eucrite petrogenesis involving a global magma ocean would need to account for the preservation of a heterogeneous eucrite source with respect to Cl/F ratios and Cl isotopes.

Francis M. Mccubbin↗
NASA NTRS1995

An approximate Kalman filter for ocean data assimilation: An example with an idealized Gulf Stream model

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximation of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudomeasurements are examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform an empirical nudging scheme used in a previous study. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

Fukumori, Ichiro↗
NASA NTRS1983

Ethane ocean on Titan

Voyager I radio occultation data is employed to develop a qualitative model of an ethane ocean on Titan. It is suggested that the ocean contains 25 percent CH4 and that the ocean is in dynamic equilibrium with an N2 atmosphere. Previous models of a CH4 ocean are discounted due to photolysis rates of CH4 gas. Tidal damping of Titan's orbital eccentricity is taken as evidence for an ocean layer approximately 1 km deep, with the ocean floor being covered with a solid C2H2 layer 100 to 200 m thick. The photolytic process disrupting the CH4, if the estimates of the oceanic content of CH4 are correct, could continue for at least one billion years. Verification of the model is dependent on detecting CH4 clouds in the lower atmosphere, finding C2H6 saturation in the lower troposphere, or obtaining evidence of a global ocean.

Lunine, J. I.↗