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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program’s (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States’ largest estuary. The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework’s current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detachment scalings derived from 1D scrape-off-layer simulations

Fusion power plants will require detachment to mitigate sputtering and keep divertor heat fluxes at tolerable levels. Controlling detachment on these devices may require the use of real-time scrape-off-layer modeling to complement the limited set of available diagnostics. In this work, we use the configurable Hermes-3 edge modeling framework to perform time-dependent, fixed-fraction-impurity 1D detachment simulations. Although currently far from real-time, these simulations are used to investigate time-dependent effects and the minimum physics set required for control-relevant modeling. We show that these simulations reproduce the expected rollover of the target ion flux — a typical characteristic of detachment onset. We also perform scans of the input heat flux and impurity concentration and show that the steady-state results closely match the scalings predicted by the 0D time-independent Lengyel–Goedheer model. This allows us to indirectly compare to SOLPS simulations, which find a similar scaling but a lower value for the impurity concentration required for detachment for given upstream conditions. We use this result to suggest a series of improvements for the Hermes simulations, and finally show simulations demonstrating the impact of time-dependence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Next-Generation Reverse Logistics Networks of Photovoltaic Recycling: Perspectives and Challenges

With the growing adoption of solar energy as a key component of the global energy transition and its new industrial policy (the Inflation Reduction Act and others), the United States is witnessing a significant increase in solar investments. This surge in installations and domestic and reshored manufacturing of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels brings with it a pressing issue: the proper management of end-of-life (EoL) PV panels. As these panels are decommissioned, either due to reaching the end of their lifespans or due to breakage across the various stages of the forward supply chain, it becomes crucial to establish efficient reverse supply chain logistics systems to address the challenges associated with their disposal, while also unlocking the value of the inherent materials that are of critical value for other forward supply chains. This perspective article examines the challenges regarding EoL PV panels and relevant reverse supply chain and logistics networks, and proposes future research directions based on the gaps observed among academic research, industry, and policy-making challenges. We identify the main bottlenecks and hurdles including, among others, the lack of supportive regulations and absence of structured, optimized recycling infrastructure. To this end, it is proposed that the key to achieving a sustainable reverse supply chain network for solar PV panels lies in relentless end-to-end supply chain cost optimization efforts supported by enabling policies. Moreover, it is proposed that designing systematic decision-making modeling frameworks is vital for examining different possibilities and scenarios for state, region or nation-wide optimization of solar PV reverse supply chain networks. Indicative to this effect, we discuss the development of a Resource-Task-Network (RTN)-based model and demonstrate its application and benefits through a case study. We wrap up with conclusions and future research directions.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers

Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.

Compound flooding↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal Freight Energy Model for Emerging Freight Technology Analysis

While freight movement represents a small portion of the volume in the transportation sector, they are a critical contributor for energy consumed in that sector. To reduce logistics costs, energy consumption and negative environmental impact, emerging technologies, such as digitalization of logistics and alternative powertrain, have been developed and extended applications in freight. These trends are expected to grow and provide opportunities for greater efficiencies in freight movement and corresponding energy use. Still, the complexity of freight systems present challenges in evaluating these benefits, especially in the multimodal inter-city freight. Addressing the research need, this paper develops a multimodal freight energy modeling framework for the analysis of emerging freight technology scenarios. The framework is a bi-level optimization problem: network cost minimization problem (lower-level) and energy minimization problem (upper-level). The lower-level problem is a mode-path assignment problem in multimodal inter-city freight networks, where commodity-specific congestion effects on trans-shipment links are considered. For this model, an inverse modeling approach is applied to infer parameters of the lower-level model. The upper-level problem is designed to search for an optimal scenario that has the lowest energy consumption among different levels of technology applications. The proposed model is empirically tested to analyze truck load-pooling and multimodal load-pooling scenarios through stand-alone and mixed applications using freight shipments originating from or destined to the Chicago region. This framework can be used to explore the impact of emerging freight technologies on mode-path freight flow and energy consumption in the national multimodal freight network.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating Thermochemical Equilibrium Calculations for Nuclear Reactor Applications

Thermochemical properties play a key role in modeling and simulation of several key phenomena in nuclear reactors. There has been an increasing interest in incorporating CALPHAD-based formulations in multiphysics simulations including for Molten Salt Reactors where knowledge of phase evolution of the salt and the chemical potentials of various elements are of utmost importance in source term analyses and redox control. However, the size of such simulations is often limited by the high computational cost of full thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. This work discusses the current efforts aimed at accelerating thermochemical equilibrium calculations for multiphysics simulations performed using the open-source finite element / finite volume code Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [1]. While several methods have been proposed for accelerating phase equilibrium calculations [2], most focus on relatively small systems and often rely on a- priori knowledge of the state-space of the system. Nuclear materials, however, are often multi-component systems owing to the evolution of composition under irradiation and an approach based on a-priori mapping of phase diagram is often not enough. This work is aimed at demonstrating an on-the-fly surrogate modeling framework that uses active learning to reduce the number of full equilibrium calculations that must be performed. By combining with efficient coupling approaches, the surrogate framework helps in reducing the computational cost of thermodynamic equilibrium informed multiphysics simulations of nuclear materials. The performance is benchmarked against full coupling with the thermochemistry library Thermochimica [3]. This work uses a machine learning based approach for constructing surrogate models to predict the stable phases in a multicomponent system. The surrogates were constructed using neural networks and Gaussian process classification. In this work, we compare the relative performance of the two methods. We also demonstrate the use of caching previous calculations by interpolating the values from nearest neighbors. References [1] Lindsay, A.D., et al. "2.0 – MOOSE: Enabling massively parallel multiphysics simulation", SoftwareX, 20 (2022): 101202. [2] Roos, W.A. and Zietsman J.H. "Accelerating complex chemical equilibrium calculations – A Review", Calphad, 77 (2022): 102380. [3] Piro, M.H.A., et al. "The thermochemistry library Thermochimica", Computational Materials Science, 67 (2013): 266-272.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis and modeling of tungsten emission and net erosion in the DIII-D divertor using updated atomic data

Tungsten (W) is one of the leading candidate materials for plasma-facing components. However, its main drawback is its high radiative efficiency; if W penetrates the plasma, it can lead to core degradation or even collapse. Since eroded tungsten tends to ionize in the sheath and redeposit promptly, the net erosion flux that escapes prompt redeposition can differ significantly from the gross erosion. This work presents a modeling framework to estimate net erosion and photon emission from W coatings exposed to the lower divertor of DIII-D using the DiMES material exposure probe. The approach couples RustBCA for sputtering yields with a Monte Carlo transport code (LPTMC) that models redeposition and W emission. Computation is carried out with new atomic data, based on R-matrix and Mons calculations, leading to lower ionization probabilities and a twofold increase in net erosion estimates compared to calculations done with OPEN-ADAS atomic data. The model results are benchmarked against experimental measurements, showing quantitative agreement for erosion, although the trends in W emission are reproduced only qualitatively. The model is also used to assess whether W II emission can serve as a direct measurement of the net erosion of W in the lower divertor of DIII-D. Simulations show that this is not valid if the electron pressure is above ~120 Pa or if the toroidal length of the eroded material is smaller than the parallel-to-B distance traveled by impurity ions before steady-state conditions are reached. Finally, simulations suggest that when W is sputtered by carbon ions with high impact energies (≳300 eV) in DIII-D, W net erosion scales with W gross erosion and can be numerically approximated using W I flux alone as input.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electrothermal Design of a Modular Multilevel Converter for Medium-Voltage Grid-Tied Applications

As a key feature of modular multilevel converters (MMCs), a large number of semiconductor devices are employed in the converter and distributed over a stack of submodules. Each submodule has a strict temperature limit that imposes constraints on the operating range of the converter. Different loading conditions/losses in the submodules lead to unavoidable temperature variations inside the MMC, which consequently affect the system-level performance and reliability. This paper is focused on the electrothermal analysis and design of a medium-voltage silicon carbide (SiC)-based MMC system, from submodule power semiconductors to the overall MMC system integration of multiple submodules, for grid-connected applications. Loss calculations are performed to estimate the cooling requirements and aid thermal design at different levels. The performance of a forced-air cooling approach is analyzed within a numerical modeling framework. Maximum temperature of the SiC power modules is predicted using numerical tools. Thermal design of the MMC cabinet with various arrangements of air inlet(s) and outlet(s) is investigated and compared from a cooling performance perspective. A fully resolved model of the arrangement that yields optimal results is developed to accurately predict the temperature profile of the essential components in the submodules.

computational fluid dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Multiscale Modeling for Design of Robust 3D Solid-State Lithium Batteries - FY21 Annual Report

This project is developing a multiscale, multi-physics modeling framework for probing the effects of materials microstructure and device architecture on ion transport within 3D ceramic solid-state battery materials, with the goal of enhancing performance and reliability. The project has three primary objectives: (1) integrate multi physics and multiscale model components; (2) understand interface- and microstructure-derived limitations on ion transport; and (3) derive key structure-performance relations for enabling future optimization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Godiva IV Thermal Neutron Dosimetry Modeling and Variance Reduction

The transfer of the Godiva IV experiment from the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) to the National Critical Experiments Research Center (NCERC) introduced a vastly different experiment room return to the neutron flux. The contribution of the background to the burst neutron energy spectrum is significant in the thermal and epithermal neutron energies. Target materials may be placed in various locations in the Godiva room, or outside of the room, for thermal neutron activation. Modeling of this dosimetry problem in Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) presented a novel challenge compared to previous Godiva IV glory hole irradiation simulations. An advanced dosimetry modeling framework for high efficiency calculations in locations far from the Godiva IV fission source was desired. The mesh-based weight windows and point detector advanced variance reduction techniques in MCNP were implemented and tested using adaptations of the critical experiment benchmark model of the Godiva IV problem. The models were validated against measured activations of Nickel, Indium, Scandium, and Cobalt foils at locations 2 meters from the Godiva IV core. Dosimetry measurements were performed in collaboration with Sandia National Laboratory. The weight windows and point detector variance reduction coupled method resulted in the highest problem efficiency.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Low Cloud Feedbacks Globally With E3SM High‐Res MMF: Agreement With LES but Stronger Shortwave Effects

This study investigates low cloud feedback in a warmer climate using global simulations from the High-Resolution Multi-scale Modeling Framework (HR-MMF), which explicitly simulates small-scale eddies globally. Two 5-year simulations—one with present-day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a second with SSTs warmed uniformly by 4 K—reveal a positive global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE = 0.3 W/m 2 /K), comparable to estimates from CMIP models. As the climate warms, significant reductions in low cloud cover occur over stratocumulus regions. This study is the first attempt to compare HR-MMF results with predictions from idealized large-eddy simulations from the CGILS intercomparison. Despite different underlying assumptions, we find qualitative agreement in SWCRE and inversion height changes between HR-MMF and CGILS predictions. This suggests reasonable credibility for the CGILS framework in predicting cloud responses under the out-of-sample conditions found in HR-MMF. However, the HR-MMF exhibits stronger SWCRE changes than predicted by CGILS. We explore potential causes for this discrepancy, examining variations in cloud-controlling factors (CCFs) and cloud conditions. Our results show a fairly homogeneous SWCRE response, with little systematic variation tied to the variations in CCFs. This reveals a dominant role for SST forcing in modulating SWCRE.

boundary-layer clouds↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Dispersion Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring

Studying hydrogen dispersion is crucial for ensuring the safe and effective deployment of hydrogen as an energy carrier. This study presents a comprehensive CFD modeling framework for simulating hydrogen dispersion at a real-world hydrogen production, storage, and utilization facility. Utilizing the Hydrogen Research Facility under the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Flatirons campus, controlled hydrogen releases at 27 kg-H2/hr were simulated. The model incorporated site-specific atmospheric conditions, including hourly wind speeds and temperatures recorded between 8 AM and 8 PM from October to December 2023. To reduce computational demands, a statistical reduction technique was applied to condense the dataset to 100 representative scenarios, validated by statistical tests for wind speeds and power law coefficients. Simulations were conducted using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Results demonstrated that wind speed substantially influences hydrogen dispersion, with low wind conditions forming concentrated clouds and higher wind speeds stretching the plume. Additionally, clustering analysis informed optimal sensor placement at various elevations with up to 10 sensor locations on each elevation. This framework offers a robust approach for understanding hydrogen behavior in ambient conditions and informing detection strategies.

08 HYDROGEN↗