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At least 793 records · Page 44

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Shaded-Color Picture Generation of Computer-Defined Arbitrary Shapes

SHADE computer program generates realistic color-shaded pictures from computer-defined arbitrary shapes. Objects defined for computer representation displayed as smooth, color-shaded surfaces, including varying degrees of transparency. Results also used for presentation of computational results. By performing color mapping, SHADE colors model surface to display analysis results as pressures, stresses, and temperatures. NASA has used SHADE extensively in sign and analysis of high-performance aircraft. Industry should find applications for SHADE in computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing. SHADE written in VAX FORTRAN and MACRO Assembler for either interactive or batch execution.

Cozzolongo, J. V.↗

Weight and the Future of Space Flight Hardware Cost Modeling

Weight has been used as the primary input variable for cost estimating almost as long as there have been parametric cost models. While there are good reasons for using weight, serious limitations exist. These limitations have been addressed by multi-variable equations and trend analysis in models such as NAFCOM, PRICE, and SEER; however, these models have not be able to address the significant time lags that can occur between the development of similar space flight hardware systems. These time lags make the cost analyst's job difficult because insufficient data exists to perform trend analysis, and the current set of parametric models are not well suited to accommodating process improvements in space flight hardware design, development, build and test. As a result, people of good faith can have serious disagreement over the cost for new systems. To address these shortcomings, new cost modeling approaches are needed. The most promising approach is process based (sometimes called activity) costing. Developing process based models will require a detailed understanding of the functions required to produce space flight hardware combined with innovative approaches to estimating the necessary resources. Particularly challenging will be the lack of data at the process level. One method for developing a model is to combine notional algorithms with a discrete event simulation and model changes to the total cost as perturbations to the program are introduced. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits are such that efforts should be focused on developing process based cost models.

Prince, Frank A.↗

Methodology and Application of Physical Security Effectiveness Based on Dynamic Force-on-Force Modeling

This report describes the research and development being performed at INL towards a dynamic modeling and simulation framework to enable physical security optimization at commercial nuclear power plants. The framework is based on the dynamic modeling tool EMRALD and is demonstrated for applications that can result in physical security optimization. Two main applications are presented: 1. Integrating FLEX portable equipment performance with FOF models of a plant’s physical security posture, and 2. Location optimization of bullet resistant enclosure. The generic framework for modeling FLEX portable equipment is described in detail, followed by a case study modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical PWR. Two distinct FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial FOF tool, AVERT, are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of FLEX performance is performed in RELAP5 and integrated with the EMRALD simulations to provide more realistic timelines in the models. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security. The objective of location optimization of BRE is to determine the best location in the plant for a new BRE being planned by the plant to enhance their physical security effectiveness. The plant physical security FOF model is integrated with EMRALD that performs Monte Carlo simulation to run different attack scenarios and a discrete set of potential BRE locations. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the most effective location for the BRE. The optimization approach can be extended to wide applications such as location optimization of remotely operated weapons and other strategic fixed assets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stability optimization of energetic particle driven modes in nuclear fusion devices: the FAR3d gyro-fluid code

The development of reduced models provide efficient methods that can be used to perform short term experimental data analysis or narrow down the parametric range of more sophisticated numerical approaches. Reduced models are derived by simplifying the physics description with the goal of retaining only the essential ingredients required to reproduce the phenomena under study. This is the role of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d, dedicated to analyze the linear and nonlinear stability of Alfvén Eigenmodes (AE), Energetic Particle Modes (EPM) and magnetic-hydrodynamic modes as pressure gradient driven mode (PGDM) and current driven modes (CDM) in nuclear fusion devices. Such analysis is valuable for improving the plasma heating efficiency and confinement; this can enhance the overall device performance. The present review is dedicated to a description of the most important contributions of the FAR3d code in the field of energetic particles (EP) and AE/EPM stability. FAR3d is used to model and characterize the AE/EPM activity measured in fusion devices as LHD, JET, DIII-D, EAST, TJ-II and Heliotron J. In addition, the computational efficiency of FAR3d facilitates performing massive parametric studies leading to the identification of optimization trends with respect to the AE/EPM stability. This can aid in identifying operational regimes where AE/EPM activity is avoided or minimized. This technique is applied to the analysis of optimized configurations with respect to the thermal plasma parameters, magnetic field configuration, external actuators and the effect of multiple EP populations. In addition, the AE/EPM saturation phase is analyzed, taking into account both steady-state phases and bursting activity observed in LHD and DIII-D devices. The nonlinear calculations provide: the induced EP transport, the generation of zonal structures as well as the energy transfer towards the thermal plasma and between different toroidal/helical families. Finally, FAR3d is used to forecast the AE/EPM stability in operational scenarios of future devices as ITER, CFETR, JT60SA and CFQS as well as possible approaches to optimization with respect to variations in the most important plasma parameters.

Alfv én Eigenmodes↗

Developing And Scaling an OpenFOAM Model to Study Turbulent Flow in a HFIR Coolant Channel

Improving the understanding of how computational fluid dynamics (CFD) direct numerical simulations (DNS) of flows in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) perform when run in parallel using the high performance computing (HPC) platform Summit at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) is of particular importance to boost the computational tools used to support HFIR conversion to low enriched fuel (LEU). Evaluation of scaling performance was driven by the increasing importance of graphics processing unit (GPU) usage in HPC, which is becoming the standard for modern supercomputers such as Summit. The desired results are to obtain a strong positive correlation between the computational resources dedicated to a problem and the relative speed-up of the simulation in comparison to a benchmark. This capability will allow substantially improvement in HFIR flow analytical capabilities, specifically when predicting turbulence properties at high Reynolds numbers. The study leverages previous simulation results performed with code PHASTA (finite element) on HPC platforms Cori (NERSC) and Theta (ALCF) [1] with computing options provided in the computing platform OpenFOAM (finite volume) at OLCF. Transitioning from PHASTA to OpenFOAM will (1) eliminate dependence on third-party software for mesh generation and manipulation, (2) reduce resource needs by employing modern architectures, and (3) build expertise for future modeling of HFIR-specific problems like heat transfer in involute geometry, entrance effects, flow structure in channel corners, and so on—all important issues when defining the available thermal margins in the transition to LEU. CPUs and GPUs differ significantly in their architecture and utilization, as discussed in the literature [2]. The most important differences are in the approach to computations and their memory. A single GPU contains a large quantity of cores, enabling it to perform with a much higher throughput than a CPU, but execution requires a different approach. GPU codes execute instructions using the Single-Instruction Multiple-Thread (SIMT) approach in which a single instruction is used for groups of threads called warps. A warp typically consists of 32 threads which must execute the same set of instructions, although on separate threads. Alternately, a CPU has far fewer cores that are much more flexible in their operation, excelling at quickly performing more complex serial computations. This is why GPUs have greater throughput when properly utilized. The second important difference is seen when comparing their memory spaces. Limited memory allocations and CPU–GPU communications cause a significant bottleneck in GPU-accelerated programs. Further study was required to properly take advantage of GPU resources. A comprehensive analysis of code performance and the model-specific features of turbulence constitutes the core of this work. In this study, a DNS simulation of HFIR channel turbulence was performed with the finite volume CFD code OpenFOAM v2112 and CUDA v11.0 on Red Hat Enterprise Linux v8.2. The OpenFOAM installation had AMGx integrated to enable GPU acceleration and utilizes the PETSc4FOAM library. The computational resources and the problem size were scaled on CPU and CPU + GPU architectures to gain a better understanding of the performance of a DNS problem on modern computing hardware. The study aimed to analyze the scaling of the code exclusively on CPUs and then to examine the scaling of the codes with GPU acceleration enabled. Scaling studies included CPU and GPU acceleration on a mesh of varying resolution to analyze the impact of problem size relative to computational resources. In the course of preparing the GPU configuration on Summit, mainly using the AMGX solvers, difficulties were encountered stemming from constant changes resulting from extensive ongoing development activities and the changing environment. This resulted in the inability to complete the GPU portion of the work. The code was compiled and tested, but production runs to assess acceleration were not performed because the used discretional compute time allocation expired as year-end approached. The Summit HPC platform is scheduled for decommissioning in 2024, making it unattractive for future use with Nvidia-based GPUs. Therefore, the work will be moved onto NERSC machines in FY24. An application was prepared and submitted, and sufficient node-hours were awarded to continue the research in the next calendar year. This report summarizes work performed thus far, which mostly focused on CPU OpenFOAM computing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Human Performance Modeling and Simulation for Launch Team Applications

This paper describes ongoing research into modeling and simulation of humans for launch team analysis, training, and evaluation. The initial research is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA)'s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) and NASA's Exploration Program and is focused on current and future launch team operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The paper begins with a description of existing KSC launch team environments and procedures. It then describes the goals of new Simulation and Analysis of Launch Teams (SALT) research. The majority of this paper describes products from the SALT team's initial proof-of-concept effort. These products include a nominal case task analysis and a discrete event model and simulation of launch team performance during the final phase of a shuttle countdown; and a first proof-of-concept training demonstration of launch team communications in which the computer plays most roles, and the trainee plays a role of the trainee's choice. This paper then describes possible next steps for the research team and provides conclusions. This research is expected to have significant value to NASA's Exploration Program.

Peaden, Cary J.↗

Sensitivity analyses of a homogeneous model and a RZ model of the MYRRHA reactor in its critical configuration

Two homogenized models of the MYRRHA (Multi-purpose hybrid Research Reactor for High-tech Applications) reactor in its critical configuration are presented in this study. Both models will be verified by comparing the main reactor parameters (K{sub eff}, β{sub eff} and Λ) with those of the heterogeneous model and a sensitivity analysis will be performed. A sensitivity analysis of some important parameters related to reactivity, namely the vacuum coefficient, the Doppler and the power peaking factors, is also presented. The study of the vacuum coefficient has been carried out by analyzing two possible scenarios: 50% vacuum in the coolant (lead bismuth eutectic) and 100%, obtaining a list of the 10 reactions and nuclides that most affect the k{sub eff} value. With respect to the Doppler coefficient, it will be seen that a 300 degree increase in fuel temperature (starting at 800 K) results in a reduction of the total reactivity of the system by 134 pcm.. Finally, the map of the power peaking factors will be shown, as well as a sensitivity analysis. For making the sensitivity calculations Serpent-2 reactor physics Monte Carlo code has been used and JEFF-3.3 library has been chosen in order to continue with the OECD/NEA WPEC SG46 work evaluating the nuclear data of this library. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Seal Analysis for the Ares-I Upper Stage Fuel Tank Manhole Cover

Techniques for studying the performance of Naflex pressure-assisted seals in the Ares-I Upper Stage liquid hydrogen tank manhole cover seal joint are explored. To assess the feasibility of using the identical seal design for the Upper Stage as was used for the Space Shuttle External Tank manhole covers, a preliminary seal deflection analysis using the ABAQUS commercial finite element software is employed. The ABAQUS analyses are performed using three-dimensional symmetric wedge finite element models. This analysis technique is validated by first modeling a heritage External Tank liquid hydrogen tank manhole cover joint and correlating the results to heritage test data. Once the technique is validated, the Upper Stage configuration is modeled. The Upper Stage analyses are performed at 1.4 times the expected pressure to comply with the Constellation Program factor of safety requirement on joint separation. Results from the analyses performed with the External Tank and Upper Stage models demonstrate the effects of several modeling assumptions on the seal deflection. The analyses for Upper Stage show that the integrity of the seal is successfully maintained.

Phillips, Dawn R.↗

Progressive Damage Failure Analysis of a Multi-Stringer Post-Buckled Panel

Validation of a progressive damage finite element analysis model using the CompDam material model was performed on a large multi-stringer panel subjected to compressive loading. The panel had a Teflon insert embedded between the skin panel and stiffener to cause an ultimate failure mode of stiffener separation. The compressive loading of the panel caused the skin between the stiffeners to locally buckle before any damage began to occur. The post-buckled behavior of the panel was the driving mechanism to the onset of damage and the damage growth that led to skin-stiffener separation. An integrated global-local modeling approach was used to validate several aspects the overall behavior of the panel from start to failure. The global region captured the pre-buckled stiffness of the test panel within 10% and the buckling load of the skin panel at the critical location within 2%. The skin’s five half-wave buckled mode shape was accurately predicted by the model. The integrated local model captured the load corresponding to the onset of damage within 5% of the average test data. Comparisons are made for key aspects of the damage morphology, such as a growth pattern that included a significant matrix split in the first ply of the skin and a migration of the delamination from the skin-stiffener interface to the skin’sply1-ply2 interface. The ultimate failure mode was shown to be an unstable growth of delamination damage under the stiffeners which led to a peak load of the analysis that was approximately 5% above the average peak load of the testing. The validated global-local modeling approach used on the multi-stringer post-buckled panel with a Teflon insert used a methodology and lessons learned using smaller specimens applied to a subcomponent that captured several aspects of a modern aircraft design.

Jason Action↗

Elucidating Photoinduced Processes of Photosystem I Via Multidimensional Electronic and Vibrational Spectroscopies

This project was motivated by an overarching goal to elucidate the mechanism of energy and electron transfer that governs the efficient charge separation in photosystem I (PSI) complexes. PSI is a natural light harvesting complex that drives oxygenic photosynthesis in plants, algae, and cyanobacteria. It uses ~300 tightly packed chlorophylls (Chls) to absorb photons, transfer the excitation energy to the reaction center (RC), and generate a charge separated state with near unity quantum efficiency (QE). A better understanding of the mechanism of energy transfer and charge separation in PSI is required for understanding the high QE of natural light harvesting complexes, and it could lead to the further development of artificial photosynthetic systems for solar energy conversion and modification of light harvesting complexes to improve crop yields. We applied two-dimensional optical spectroscopies to different cyanobacterial photosystem I complexes, including PSI complexes that contain Chl f molecules, to map energy transfer pathways and gain insight into the efficient light harvesting of PSI. We used two-dimensional electronic spectroscopies (2DES) to map energy transfer in Chl a and Chl f containing PSI complexes. To investigate the Chl f PSI complexes, we modified our spectrometer to probe the lower energy states associated with Chl f molecules. We interpreted the 2DES spectra through global analysis procedures to generate maps of energy transfer. We also constructed a two-dimensional electronic vibrational (2DEV) spectrometer that will be used to investigate charge transfer transitions and dynamics within PSI complexes. Measurements were performed on model systems to establish general data analysis procedures for interpreting 2D spectra and gain insight into protein cofactor interactions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Modeling Tool to Analyze the Performance of Industrial Cooling Towers

Energy efficiency and energy savings have become an important factor as industries look for ways to save energy and minimize their energy consumption while reducing their carbon footprint. Cooling towers are utilized significantly in industries for either serving chillers or process cooling. Depending on the size of the cooling tower, it can use a surprising amount of energy and water, which is why it is crucial to make sure that the facility has optimized their cooling tower.A modeling tool has been developed to perform a thorough analysis of a cooling tower and its various operations to ensure that the facility has optimized its cooling tower. This model analyzes an annual base case in comparison with the revised case of a cooling tower operation. This modeling tool simulates 8,760 hourly calculations for fan power for various fan controls, water consumption, and pumping energy consumption and demand based on the user’s location and its corresponding Typical Meteorological Year 3 (TMY3) weather data. This model is capable to simulate up to five cooling tower cells as one large tower utilizing one pump or parallel pumping. The successful validated cooling tower model should assist industry to save energy at their facility through their cooling tower, whether they use it for process cooling or heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) applications. The entering/leaving water temperatures based on a monthly operating schedule or a wet-bulb temperature schedule will be used as inputs, and the model can calculate savings in energy for various conditions including variable-frequency drive (VFD) on the fan/pump, drift eliminators, number of cycles of concentration, reduced water flow rate, etc.

Hooper, Josh↗

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft

The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) software is an aircraft system analysis tool intended to support both conceptual design efforts and technology impact assessments. The principal tasks are to design (or size) a rotorcraft to meet specified requirements, including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) operation, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of conditions. For broad and lasting utility, it is important that the code have the capability to model general rotorcraft configurations, and estimate the performance and weights of advanced rotor concepts. The architecture of the NDARC code accommodates configuration flexibility; a hierarchy of models; and ultimately multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization. Initially the software is implemented with lowfidelity models, typically appropriate for the conceptual design environment. An NDARC job consists of one or more cases, each case optionally performing design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance calculation, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. For analysis tasks, the aircraft description can come from the sizing task, from a previous case or a previous NDARC job, or be independently generated (typically the description of an existing aircraft). The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. For each component, attributes such as performance, drag, and weight can be calculated; and the aircraft attributes are obtained from the sum of the component attributes. Description and analysis of conventional rotorcraft configurations is facilitated, while retaining the capability to model novel and advanced concepts. Specific rotorcraft configurations considered are single main-rotor and tailrotor helicopter; tandem helicopter; coaxial helicopter; and tiltrotors. The architecture of the code accommodates addition of new or higher-fidelity attribute models for a component, as well as addition of new components.

Johnson, Wayne R.↗

Gas-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PB-HTGR) reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. The reference plant models have been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, which is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analysis. It incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of the work that was performed was to assess BlueCRAB’s level of readiness for modeling a PB-HTGR. To do so, we first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology to ensure an adequate level of fidelity for modeling PB-HTGR core performance and for performing multiphysics simulations for equilibrium core conditions and different accident scenarios. Then we simulated transient scenarios, including depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling accidents, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events with delayed and prompt supercritical reactivity insertions. The analysis in this report includes comparisons of the 2D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, and comparisons of coupled SAM/Griffin/SAM and coupled Pronghorn/Griffin for depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events. In addition, we compare 3D, 2D, and 0D/PKE neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with coupled Pronghorn/Griffin. The comparisons show that the BlueCRAB models lead to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields, such as neutron flux, power, temperature, density, pressure, and velocity, are within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained by the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. This work further highlights the need for flexible tools with various levels of fidelity to cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations of the PB-HTGR. We believe that the BlueCRAB capabilities will be a significant asset for confirmatory analyses in order to resolve important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗