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At least 793 records · Page 44

Development of braided rope seals for hypersonic engine applications: Flow modeling

A new type of engine seal is being developed to meet the needs of advanced hypersonic engines. A seal braided of emerging high temperature ceramic fibers comprised of a sheath-core construction was selected for study based on its low leakage rates. Flexible, low-leakage, high temperature seals are required to seal the movable engine panels of advanced ramjet-scramjet engines either preventing potentially dangerous leakage into backside engine cavities or limiting the purge coolant flow rates through the seals. To predict the leakage through these flexible, porous seal structures new analytical flow models are required. Two such models based on the Kozeny-Carman equations are developed herein and are compared to experimental leakage measurements for simulated pressure and seal gap conditions. The models developed allow prediction of the gas leakage rate as a function of fiber diameter, fiber packing density, gas properties, and pressure drop across the seal. The first model treats the seal as a homogeneous fiber bed. The second model divides the seal into two homogeneous fiber beds identified as the core and the sheath of the seal. Flow resistances of each of the main seal elements are combined to determine the total flow resistance. Comparisons between measured leakage rates and model predictions for seal structures covering a wide range of braid architectures show good agreement. Within the experimental range, the second model provides a prediction within 6 to 13 percent of the flow for many of the cases examined. Areas where future model refinements are required are identified.

Mutharasan, Rajakkannu↗

Creating Aerosol Types Form CHemistry (CATCH): a New Algorithm to Extend the Link Between Remote Sensing and Models

Current remote sensing methods can identify aerosol types within an atmospheric column, presenting an opportunity to incrementally bridge the gap between remote sensing and models. Here a new algorithm was designed for Creating Aerosol Types from CHemistry (CATCH). CATCH-derived aerosol types—dusty mix, maritime, urban, smoke, and fresh smoke—are based on first-generation airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-1) retrievals during the Ship-Aircraft Bio-Optical Research (SABOR) campaign, July/August 2014. CATCH is designed to derive aerosol types from model output of chemical composition. CATCH-derived aerosol types are determined by multivariate clustering of model-calculated variables that have been trained using retrievals of aerosol types from HSRL-1. CATCH-derived aerosol types (with the exception of smoke) compare well with HSRL-1 retrievals during SABOR with an average difference in aerosol optical depth (AOD) <0.03. Data analysis shows that episodic free tropospheric transport of smoke is underpredicted by the Goddard Earth Observing System- with Chemistry (GEOS-Chem) model. Spatial distributions of CATCH-derived aerosol types for the North American model domain during July/August 2014 show that aerosol type-specific AOD values occurred over representative locations: urban over areas with large population, maritime over oceans, smoke, and fresh smoke over typical biomass burning regions. This study demonstrates that model-generated information on aerosol chemical composition can be translated into aerosol types analogous to those retrieved from remote sensing methods. In the future, spaceborne HSRL-1 and CATCH can be used to gain insight into chemical composition of aerosol types, reducing uncertainties in estimates of aerosol radiative forcing.

K W Dawson↗

Modeling 233 Pa Generation in Thorium-fueled Reactors for Safeguards

Thorium has been considered as a possible alternative to uranium for nuclear fuel for many decades. It is three to four times more abundant in the earth than uranium and produces significantly less long-lived transuranic nuclear waste. Some claim thorium poses fewer proliferation concerns than other fuel types largely due to 232 U buildup (and associated high energy gamma-emitting decay products) in the irradiated thorium fuel. However, to fully explore potential proliferation concerns, generation and subsequent decay of 233 Pa produced in the reactor core still must be studied. With its half-life of 27 days, 233 Pa decays to 233 U, which is an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defined special fissionable material that can be used for nuclear weapons production. With more research being dedicated to thorium-fueled reactors, and several of these reactor designs possessing online fuel processing (allowing for on-site protactinium separation), it is important to understand this potential proliferation pathway. In particular, it is theoretically possible to extract protactinium from the irradiated fuel salt before it decays into 233 U. This hypothetical potential diversion can become an even greater proliferation concern if the extracted protactinium is purified through a second separation of protactinium approximately ten days later to remove the short half-life decay products of 232 Pa and 234 Pa, thus resulting in a higher concentration of the 233 Pa isotope, which decays into weapons usable 233 U with hardly any 232 U or 234 U in it. To estimate the concern of this potential proliferation challenge of thorium, different nuclear material accountancy techniques were reviewed for their viability to quantify 233 Pa if extracted from used thorium fuel. Characteristics of interest included technology maturity, cost, precision, and time taken to acquire results. Some technologies, like hybrid K-edge densitometry and passive gamma spectroscopy, appear to be viable techniques based on current literature. Due to the limited scope of this project, only passive gamma spectroscopy was further investigated. Three different reactor types (PWR, CANDU, MSR) were modeled with mixed thorium-uranium oxide fuels that were burned until the fuel was spent. The protactinium in the used fuel was extracted at the time of shutdown and the change in isotopic content of the protactinium quantified. Gamma spectroscopy simulations were performed for the protactinium isotopes and their decay products at various decay times. Given the simplicity of the models and large assumptions made (e.g. no background, no shielding, no self-attenuation), the initial results indicate that though 233 Pa is detectible for all the reactor types modeled at all decay times (0 to 300 days), more work should be done with higher fidelity models.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

The GMRT archive atomic gas survey – II. Mass modelling and dark matter halo properties across late-type spirals

Studying the kinematics and mass modelling of galaxies from H i 21 cm data provides valuable insights into the properties of both the baryonic components and the dark matter halo in nearby galaxies. Despite many observational studies, mass modelling of galaxies remains challenging due to different limitations. For example, most of the previous studies involving mass modelling are based on rotation curves derived from 2D velocity fields from H i or H α spectroscopic observation which are often affected by beam smearing and projection effect. However, kinematic modelling done by fitting the ‘Tilted ring model’ to 3D data cube is not affected by these issues. In this study, we present and compare 3D kinematic modelling of a pilot sample of 11 galaxies from the GMRT archive atomic gas survey (GARCIA) using two different publicly available pipelines. We model the observed H i rotation curve using 3.6-μm infrared data and SDSS r-band data for stellar contribution, H i surface density profile for gas, and Navarro–Frenk–White profile for dark matter halo; and employ the Markov chain Monte Carlo optimization method for parameter estimation. Further, to validate our analysis, we revisit important scaling relations, e.g. the M gas –M star relation, M star –M halo relation, M gas –M halo relation and Baryonic Tully–Fisher relation. Here, the scaling relations from our analysis are broadly consistent with that reported in the literature. A larger sample of galaxies from GARCIA in the near future will allow studying these scaling relations in greater details.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

The Early Light Curve of the Type Ia Supernova 2021hpr in NGC 3147: Progenitor Constraints with the Companion Interaction Model

The progenitor system of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is expected to be a close binary system consisting of a carbon/oxygen white dwarf (WD) and a nondegenerate star or another WD. Here, we present results from high-cadence monitoring observations of SN 2021hpr in a spiral galaxy, NGC 3147, and constraints on the progenitor system based on its early multicolor light-curve data. First, we classify SN 2021hpr as a normal SN Ia from its long-term photometric and spectroscopic data. More interestingly, we found a significant "early excess" in the light curve over a simple power-law ~t 2 evolution. The early light curve evolves from blue to red to blue during the first week. To explain this, we fitted the early part of the BVRI-band light curves with a two-component model consisting of ejecta–companion interaction and a simple power-law model. The early excess and its color can be explained by shock-cooling emission due to a companion star having a radius of 8.84 ± 0.58 R ⊙ . We also examined Hubble Space Telescope preexplosion images, finding no detection of a progenitor candidate, consistent with the above result. However, we could not detect signs of a significant amount of stripped mass from a nondegenerate companion star (≲0.003 M ⊙ for Hα emission). The early excess light in the multiband light curve supports a nondegenerate companion in the progenitor system of SN 2021hpr. At the same time, the nondetection of emission lines opens the door for other methods to explain this event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between the real world and the model. The result of model validation can be used to either improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on estimating the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap geometry configuration given the uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. A procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs is outlined. The work also assesses the impact of using different high-fidelity solvers and different turbulence models. The goal of performing this comparison is to provide a quantifiable measurement of the accuracy of each solver and turbulence model for this type of design. A low-fidelity analysis is also performed to get a model-form uncertainty for this type of analysis. The two high-fidelity CFD solvers used here are VULCAN-CFD and FUN3D, and the low-fidelity results comes from Cart3D.The experimental data comes from the 20-inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The work here shows that the models used tend to under-predict the drag and moment aerodynamic coefficients for this type of design leading to a model-form uncertainty estimate which can account for up to an 86% of the total uncertainty in the model predictions.

Laura M White↗

Toward integrating high-fidelity CFD approaches in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of turbulent dry cask systems

Nuclear power plants have been supplying resilient and reliable electricity for decades, contributing to energy independence of the U.S.. However, nuclear waste management remains one of the most significant challenges in the industry. The safety of dry cask storage systems relies heavily on their thermal-hydraulic performance. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are often used to demonstrate this performance and ensure that the system design meets safety standards. This study presents reduced numerical models for various types of dry cask systems. These numerical models can produce efficient and fast results based on the employed modeling strategies. Additionally, the study uses a novel approach to high-fidelity simulations to evaluate modeling assumptions in dry cask modeling. Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are used for this purpose, particularly in regions where fluid velocity is relatively high and the turbulence characteristics become important. Furthermore, the results of these high-fidelity simulations will enhance the interpretation of outcomes produced from a lower-fidelity CFD model.

CFD↗

A Fast Time-Stepping Strategy for Dynamical Systems Equipped with a Surrogate Model

Simulation of complex dynamical systems arising in many applications is computationally challenging due to their size and complexity. Model order reduction, machine learning, and other types of surrogate modeling techniques offer cheaper and simpler ways to describe the dynamics of these systems but are inexact and introduce additional approximation errors. In order to overcome the computational difficulties of the full complex models, on one hand, and the limitations of surrogate models, on the other, this work proposes a new accelerated time-stepping strategy that combines information from both. This approach is based on the multirate infinitesimal general-structure additive Runge--Kutta framework. The inexpensive surrogate model is integrated with a small time step to guide the solution trajectory, and the full model is treated with a large time step to occasionally correct for the surrogate model error and ensure convergence. Here, we provide a theoretical error analysis, and several numerical experiments, to show that this approach can be significantly more efficient than using only the full or only the surrogate model for the integration.

Surrogate models↗

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Advancing our understanding of instabilities in high-energy-density systems through the study of benchmark datasets with advanced modeling tools

Numerous types of pulsed power driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high energy density (HED) systems rely on implosion stability to achieve desired temperatures, pressures, and densities. Sandia National Laboratories Pulsed Power Sciences Center’s main ICF platform, Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF), suffers from implosion instabilities which limit attainable fuel conditions and can compromise fuel confinement. This Truman Fellowship research primarily focused on computationally exploring (a) methods for improving our understanding of hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic instabilities that form during cylindrical liner implosions, (b) methods for mitigating implosion instabilities, particularly those that degrade performance of MagLIF targets, and (c) novel MagLIF target designs intended to improve target performance primarily via enhanced implosion stability. Several multi-dimensional computational tools were used, including the magnetohydrodynamics code ALEGRA, the radiation-magnetohydrodynamics code HYDRA, and the magnetohydrodynamics code KRAKEN. This research succeeded in executing and analyzing simulations of automagnetizing liner implosions, shockless MagLIF implosions, dynamic screw pinch driven cylindrical liner implosions, and cylindrically convergent HED instability studies. The methods and tools explored and developed in this Truman Fellowship research have been published in several peer-reviewed journal articles and will serve as useful contributions to the fields of pulsed power science and engineering, particularly pertaining to pulsed power ICF and HED science.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-scale models of whole cells: progress and challenges

Whole-cell modeling is “the ultimate goal” of computational systems biology and “a grand challenge for 21st century”. These complex, highly detailed models account for the activity of every molecule in a cell and serve as comprehensive knowledgebases for the modeled system. Their scope and utility far surpass those of other systems models. In fact, whole-cell models (WCMs) are an amalgam of several types of “system” models. The models are simulated using a hybrid modeling method where the appropriate mathematical methods for each biological process are used to simulate their behavior. Given the complexity of the models, the process of developing and curating these models is labor-intensive and to date only a handful of these models have been developed. While whole-cell models provide valuable and novel biological insights, and to date have identified some novel biological phenomena, their most important contribution has been to highlight the discrepancy between available data and observations that are used for the parametrization and validation of complex biological models. Another realization has been that current whole-cell modeling simulators are slow and to run models that mimic more complex (e.g., multi-cellular) biosystems, those need to be executed in an accelerated fashion on high-performance computing platforms. In this manuscript, we review the progress of whole-cell modeling to date and discuss some of the ways that they can be improved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting the Supernova Engines in the 3C 397 and W49B Supernova Remnants

The nature of the supernova remnants (SNRs) 3C 397 and W49B has long been a subject of debate, with prior studies offering conflicting interpretations between thermonuclear and core-collapse scenarios. To help settle this debate, we present a systematic, spatially resolved, spectroscopic analysis of both remnants using XMM-Newton. By applying multicomponent thermal models, we derive key physical properties including elemental abundances, ejecta temperatures, ambient densities, and explosion energetics. We compare the inferred metal abundance ratios to a wide range of core-collapse and thermonuclear nucleosynthesis models, including new models whose explosion energies differ from the canonical value of 10 51 erg. We find that the observed Fe/Si and Ca/Si ratios in both SNRs are best matched by certain thermonuclear models. However, no model fully reproduces the complete set of observed abundance patterns. In 3C 397, high Fe enrichment and spatial abundance variations suggest interaction with a dense progenitor environment, and W49B’s composition is overall consistent with a thermonuclear origin; however, both require a low-energy (∼10 50 erg) supernova explosion. We additionally map the Fe Kα line centroid energies and find a spread, with W49B falling within the core-collapse region—highlighting both environmental complexity and the limitations of this diagnostic for supernova classification. Our results highlight the need for caution in relying on any single diagnostic or nucleosynthesis model for supernova typing, underscore the need for improved nucleosynthesis models, and motivate future high-resolution, high-throughput observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utilization of the NASA/MSFC diffusion model in support of aerospace air quality analyses

The basic types of diffusion models available for aerospace air quality analyses are reviewed in terms of meteorological input differences. The NASA/MSFC rocket exhaust effluent diffusion (REED) code is summarized and discussed as a tool for aerospace air quality analyses. The generic approach to a climatological air quality analysis using the NASA/MSFC REED code is considered.

Stephens, J. B.↗

Space station models, mockups and simulators

Schematic outlines for space station models, mockups, and simulators are presented. The types of Boeing models, mockups, and simulators are given along with the classes and characteristics. The use of models in the 767 program is briefly given. Computerized human factors tools are outlined. The use of computer aided design and computer aided manufacturing in the approach for the space station is advocated.

Miller, K. H.↗

Electronic Health Management

Accelerated aging methodologies for electrolytic components have been designed and accelerated aging experiments have been carried out. The methodology is based on imposing electrical and/or thermal overstresses via electrical power cycling in order to mimic the real world operation behavior. Data are collected in-situ and offline in order to periodically characterize the devices' electrical performance as it ages. The data generated through these experiments are meant to provide capability for the validation of prognostic algorithms (both model-based and data-driven). Furthermore, the data allow validation of physics-based and empirical based degradation models for this type of capacitor. A first set of models and algorithms has been designed and tested on the data.

Celaya, Jose R.↗

Ontologies for Aviation Data Management

Managing complex aviation data can be a significant challenge for any enterprise – whether a government agency, airline, airframe manufacturer, or aviation service provider. To handle this challenge, data models are typically developed to characterize and manage the data generated, used, and stored by a given enterprise. Unfortunately, different data providers employ qualitatively different data models, and this gives rise to problems exchanging data across organizational boundaries. Over the past decade, these problems have motivated data producers and consumers to look toward standardized data exchange models to address data interoperability. In this paper we examine some of these standardized data exchange models and compare them with a new type of data model based on ontologies. Ontology models have emerged in recent years from a confluence of research in the artificial intelligence, semantic web, and information science communities. This paper introduces ontology models, provides several use cases for ontologies relevant to aviation data management, and summarizes state of the art aviation prototype applications that utilize ontologies.

artificial intelligence↗

A Nucleosynthetic Origin for the Southwestern Fe-rich Structure in Kepler's Supernova Remnant

Chandra X-ray observations of Kepler's supernova remnant indicate the existence of a high-speed Fe-rich ejecta structure in the southwestern region. We report strong K-shell emission from Fe-peak elements (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni), as well as Ca, in this Fe-rich structure, implying that those elements could be produced in the inner area of the exploding white dwarf. We found Ca/Fe, Cr/Fe, Mn/Fe, and Ni/Fe mass ratios of 1.0%–4.1%, 1.0%–4.6%, 1%–11%, and 2%–30%, respectively. In order to constrain the burning regime that could produce this structure, we compared these observed mass ratios with those in 18 one-dimensional Type Ia nucleosynthesis models (including both near-M Ch and sub-M Ch explosion models). The observed mass ratios agree well with those around the middle layer of incomplete Si burning in Type Ia nucleosynthesis models with a peak temperature of ~(5.0–5.3) × 10(exp 9) K and a high metallicity, Z > 0.0225. Based on our results, we infer the necessity for some mechanism to produce protruding Fe-rich clumps dominated by incomplete Si-burning products during the explosion. We also discuss the future perspectives of X-ray observations of Fe-rich structures in other Type Ia supernova remnants.

Toshiki Sato↗