Results for “model structural error” — Page 44

NASA NTRS1988

Pointing control for LDR

One important aspect of the LDR control problem is the possible excitations of structural modes due to random disturbances, mirror chopping, and slewing maneuvers. An analysis was performed to yield a first order estimate of the effects of such dynamic excitations. The analysis involved a study of slewing jitters, chopping jitters, disturbance responses, and pointing errors, making use of a simplified planar LDR model which describes the LDR dynamics on a plane perpendicular to the primary reflector. Briefly, the results indicate that the command slewing profile plays an important role in minimizing the resultant jitter, even to a level acceptable without any control action. An optimal profile should therefore be studied.

Yam, Y.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Nonparametric Estimation of Operators between Infinite Dimensional Spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA Tech Briefs, June 2006

Topics covered include: Magnetic-Field-Response Measurement-Acquisition System; Platform for Testing Robotic Vehicles on Simulated Terrain; Interferometer for Low-Uncertainty Vector Metrology; Rayleigh Scattering for Measuring Flow in a Nozzle Testing Facility; "Virtual Feel" Capaciflectors; FETs Based on Doped Polyaniline/Polyethylene Oxide Fibers; Miniature Housings for Electronics With Standard Interfaces; Integrated Modeling Environment; Modified Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation of Data; Sizing Structures and Predicting Weight of a Spacecraft; Stress Testing of Data-Communication Networks; Framework for Flexible Security in Group Communications; Software for Collaborative Use of Large Interactive Displays; Microsphere Insulation Panels; Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Anodes for Lithium Cells; Tantalum-Based Ceramics for Refractory Composites; Integral Flexure Mounts for Metal Mirrors for Cryogenic Use; Templates for Fabricating Nanowire/Nanoconduit- Based Devices; Measuring Vapors To Monitor the State of Cure of a Resin; Partial-Vacuum-Gasketed Electrochemical Corrosion Cell; Theodolite Ring Lights; Integrating Terrain Maps Into a Reactive Navigation Strategy; Reducing Centroid Error Through Model-Based Noise Reduction; Adaptive Modeling Language and Its Derivatives; Stable Satellite Orbits for Global Coverage of the Moon; and Low-Cost Propellant Launch From a Tethered Balloon

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneous Mixtures of Dictionary Functions to Approximate Subspace Invariance in Koopman Operators: Why Deep Koopman Operators Work

Abstract Koopman operators model nonlinear dynamics as a linear dynamic system acting on a nonlinear function as the state. This nonstandard state is often called a Koopman observable and is usually approximated numerically by a superposition of functions drawn from a dictionary . In a widely used algorithm, extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD), the dictionary functions are drawn from a fixed class of functions. Deep learning combined with EDMD has been used to learn novel dictionary functions in an algorithm called deep dynamic mode decomposition (deepDMD). The learned representation both (1) accurately models and (2) scales well with the dimension of the original nonlinear system. In this paper, we analyze the learned dictionaries from deepDMD and explore the theoretical basis for their strong performance. We explore State-Inclusive Logistic Lifting (SILL) dictionary functions to approximate Koopman observables. Error analysis of these dictionary functions show they satisfy a property of subspace approximation, which we define as uniform finite approximate closure. Typically, a Koopman dictionary’s nonlinear functions are homogeneous. In this paper, we discover that structured mixing of heterogeneous dictionary functions drawn from different classes of nonlinear functions achieve the same accuracy and dimensional scaling as the deep-learning-based deepDMD algorithm Yeung et al. ( In: 2019 American Control Conference (ACC), 2019). We specifically show this by building a heterogeneous dictionary comprised of SILL functions and conjunctive radial basis functions (RBFs). This mixed dictionary achieves similar accuracy and dimensional scaling to deepDMD with an order of magnitude reduction in parameters, while maintaining geometric interpretability. These results strengthen the viability of dictionary-based Koopman models to solving high-dimensional nonlinear learning problems.

Johnson, Charles A.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity to Physical and Numerical Aspects of Large-Eddy Simulation of Stratocumulus

Abstract A series of numerical experiments where both physical and numerical model parameters are varied with respect to a reference setup is used to investigate the physics of a stratocumulus cloud and the performance of a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. The simulations show a delicate balance of physical processes with some sensitivities amplified by numerical model features. A strong feedback between cloud liquid, cloud-top radiative cooling, and turbulence leads to slow grid convergence of the turbulent fluxes. For a methodology that diagnoses cloud liquid from conserved variables, small errors in the total water amount result in large liquid water errors, which are amplified by the cloud-top radiative cooling leading to large variations of buoyancy forcing. In contrast, when the liquid–radiation–buoyancy feedback is not present in simulations without radiation, the turbulence structure of the boundary layer remains essentially identical for grid resolutions between 20 and 1.25 m. The present runs suggest that the buoyancy reversal instability significantly enhances the entrainment rate. Even though cloud-top radiative cooling is regarded as a key attribute of stratocumulus, the present simulations suggest that surface fluxes and surface shear significantly contribute to the total turbulent kinetic energy. Turbulence spectra exhibit inertial range scaling away from the confinement effects of the surface and inversion. Fine grid resolution LESs agree with observations, especially with respect to cloud liquid and vertical velocity variance, and exhibit grid convergence without any model tuning or ad hoc model choices.

Matheou, Georgios↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of irradiated graphite property models under high temperatures

Graphite under high temperatures and irradiation is central to advanced reactors. We develop a Bayesian calibration framework for graphite property models that explicitly represents model-data mismatch via a Gaussian-process discrepancy. The approach propagates uncertainty from parameters, experimental noise, and model form, with a hierarchical variance structure to capture group and cross-group noise. Using two predictive models across five grades (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA, NBG-17, 2114) and four properties-irradiation-induced dimension change, creep, Young’s modulus change ratio, and coefficient of thermal expansion change ratio-we obtain average predictive-error reductions of 54%, 65%, 17%, and 17% when discrepancy is included. We illustrate engineering impact with a multiphysics model of a very-high-temperature reactor prismatic reflector brick, analyzing stresses under high fluence and temperature. Accounting for model discrepancy markedly improves predictive accuracy and provides a robust basis for reliable graphite component design in advanced reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quadrature Based Neural Network Learning of Stochastic Hamiltonian Systems

Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs) provide structure-preserving learning of Hamiltonian systems. In this paper, we extend HNNs to structure-preserving inversion of stochastic Hamiltonian systems (SHSs) from observational data. We propose the quadrature-based models according to the integral form of the SHSs’ solutions, where we denoise the loss-by-moment calculations of the solutions. The integral pattern of the models transforms the source of the essential learning error from the discrepancy between the modified Hamiltonian and the true Hamiltonian in the classical HNN models into that between the integrals and their quadrature approximations. This transforms the challenging task of deriving the relation between the modified and the true Hamiltonians from the (stochastic) Hamilton–Jacobi PDEs, into the one that only requires invoking results from the numerical quadrature theory. Meanwhile, denoising via moments calculations gives a simpler data fitting method than, e.g., via probability density fitting, which may imply better generalization ability in certain circumstances. Numerical experiments validate the proposed learning strategy on several concrete Hamiltonian systems. The experimental results show that both the learned Hamiltonian function and the predicted solution of our quadrature-based model are more accurate than that of the corrected symplectic HNN method on a harmonic oscillator, and the three-point Gaussian quadrature-based model produces higher accuracy in long-time prediction than the Kramers–Moyal method and the numerics-informed likelihood method on the stochastic Kubo oscillator as well as other two stochastic systems with non-polynomial Hamiltonian functions. Moreover, the Hamiltonian learning error εH arising from the Gaussian quadrature-based model is lower than that from Simpson’s quadrature-based model. These demonstrate the superiority of our approach in learning accuracy and long-time prediction ability compared to certain existing methods and exhibit its potential to improve learning accuracy via applying precise quadrature formulae.

Mathematics↗

NASA NTRS1983

Experiments using least square lattice filters for the identification of structural dynamics

An approach for identifying the dynamics of large space structures is applied to a free-free beam. In this approach the system's order is determined on-line, along with mode shapes, using recursive lattice filters which provide a least square estimate of the measurement data. The mode shapes determined are orthonormal in the space of the measurements and, hence, are not the natural modes of the structure. To determine the natural modes of the structure, a method based on the fast Fourier transform is used on the outputs of the lattice filter. These natural modes are used to obtain the modal amplitude time series which provides the input data for an output error parameter identification scheme that identifies the ARMA parameters of the difference equation model of the modes. the approach is applied to both simulated and experimental data.

Sundararajan, N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A simulation of the pointing performance of the Solar Optical Telescope

The Space Shuttle-based Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) will be able to resolve details subtending 0.1 arcsec for continuous viewing over several hours. The SOT's jitter must contribute only 0.03 arcsec rms pointing error over the observation periods; this requirement is addressed with several control system layers encompassing the Shuttle, the Instrument Pointing System, the Prime Focus Image Control Functional System, and the Gregorian Focus Image Control Functional System. The mathematical models for system pointing stability presented give attention to the interaction of the structural and control systems on pointing stability and to Space Shuttle disturbances.

Bundas, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The cleanroom case study in the Software Engineering Laboratory: Project description and early analysis

This case study analyzes the application of the cleanroom software development methodology to the development of production software at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The cleanroom methodology emphasizes human discipline in program verification to produce reliable software products that are right the first time. Preliminary analysis of the cleanroom case study shows that the method can be applied successfully in the FDD environment and may increase staff productivity and product quality. Compared to typical Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) activities, there is evidence of lower failure rates, a more complete and consistent set of inline code documentation, a different distribution of phase effort activity, and a different growth profile in terms of lines of code developed. The major goals of the study were to: (1) assess the process used in the SEL cleanroom model with respect to team structure, team activities, and effort distribution; (2) analyze the products of the SEL cleanroom model and determine the impact on measures of interest, including reliability, productivity, overall life-cycle cost, and software quality; and (3) analyze the residual products in the application of the SEL cleanroom model, such as fault distribution, error characteristics, system growth, and computer usage.

Green, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2001

Infrared Communications for Small Spacecraft: From a Wireless Bus to Cluster Concepts

Nanosatellites operating singly or in clusters are anticipated for future space science missions. To implement this new communications paradigm, we are approaching cluster communications by first developing an infrared (IR) intra-craft wireless bus capability, following initially the MIL-STD-1553B protocol. Benefits of an IR wireless bus are low mass, size, power, and cost, simplicity of implementation, ease of use, minimum EMI, and efficient and reliable data transfer. Our goals are to maximize the reliable link margin in order to afford greater flexibility in receiver placement, which will ease technology insertion. We have developed a concept demonstration using a high-speed visible-band silicon PIN photodiode and a high-efficiency visible LED operating at a data rate up to 4 Mb/sec. In designing an internal IR wireless bus, we have characterized various candidate materials, emitters, and geometries, assuming a single reflection. Thus, we have measured the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) for five different materials characteristic of typical spacecraft structures, which range from nearly Lambertian to highly specular. We have fit our data to empirical BRDF functions and modeled the detected irradiance anywhere in the plane of incidence for a divergent (LED) emitter. We have also determined the angular limits on the link geometry to remain within the required bit error rate by determining the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for minimum values of irradiance received at the detector.

Webb, Suzanne C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Origin and Evolution of Deep Plasmaspheric Notches

Deep plasmaspheric notches can extend over more than 2 R(sub E) in radial distance and 3 hours MLT in the magnetic equatorial plane, as observed by the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imager on the IMAGE mission. They are among the largest evacuated features in the exterior plasmaspheric boundary. They can last for days and exhibit a variety of shapes. It appears that weak convection and limited erosion precedes notch formation at the westward, near-Earth edge of the convection plume. Eighteen clear notch events were found and analyzed in 2000. Among these events, notches were found to drift as slowly as 44% of corotation. In only one case was a notch found to drift at the corotation rate within measurement error. On average, these notches drift at about 21.5 h d(sup -1) or 90% of the corotational rate. Notches sometimes exhibit an interior structure that appears as an extended prominence of dense plasma, which forms a W- or M-like feature in IMAGE/EUV images, depending on viewing perspective. Initial modeling suggests that notches and notch prominences may be caused in part by intense small-scale potential structures that result from the localized injection of ring current plasma. Plasma filling rates during recovery are examined in three L shell ranges from L = 2 to L = 3.5 with rates ranging from 5 to 140 cm(sup -3) d(sup -1). Plasma loss during a minor substorm is found to extend to surprisingly low L shell with rates ranging from 100 to 130 cm(sup -3) d(sup -1) across the L shells examined.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks for Constraining Cosmological Parameters Across Multiple Data Sets

Deep learning models have been shown to outperform methods that rely on summary statistics, like the power spectrum, in extracting information from complex cosmological data sets. However, due to differences in the subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations across different simulation suites, models trained on data from one cosmological simulation show a drop in performance when tested on another. Similarly, models trained on any of the simulations would also likely experience a drop in performance when applied to observational data. Training on data from two different suites of the CAMELS hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, we examine the generalization capabilities of Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs). By utilizing GNNs, we capitalize on their capacity to capture structured scale-free cosmological information from galaxy distributions. Moreover, by including unsupervised domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we enable our models to extract domain-invariant features. We demonstrate that DA-GNN achieves higher accuracy and robustness on cross-dataset tasks (up to $28\%$ better relative error and up to almost an order of magnitude better $\chi^2$). Using data visualizations, we show the effects of domain adaptation on proper latent space data alignment. This shows that DA-GNNs are a promising method for extracting domain-independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scaling up the transcorrelated density matrix renormalization group

Explicitly correlated methods, such as the transcorrelated method which shifts a Jastrow or Gutzwiller correlator from the wave function to the Hamiltonian, are designed for high-accuracy calculations of electronic structures, but their application to larger systems has been hampered by the computational cost. We develop improved techniques for the transcorrelated density-matrix renormalization group (DMRG), in which the ground state of the transcorrelated Hamiltonian is represented as a matrix product state (MPS), and demonstrate large-scale calculations of the ground-state energy of the two-dimensional Fermi-Hubbard model. Our developments stem from three technical inventions: (i) constructing matrix product operators (MPOs) of transcorrelated Hamiltonians with low bond dimension and high sparsity, (ii) exploiting the entanglement structure of the ground states to increase the accuracy of the MPS representation, and (iii) optimizing the nonlinear parameter of the Gutzwiller correlator to mitigate the nonvariational nature of the transcorrelated method. Here, we examine systems of size up to 12×12 lattice sites, four times larger than previous transcorrelated DMRG studies, and demonstrate that transcorrelated DMRG yields significant improvements over standard nontranscorrelated DMRG for equivalent computational effort. Transcorrelated DMRG reduces the error of the ground-state energy by 2.4×–14×, with the smallest improvement seen for a small system at half filling and the largest improvement in a dilute closed-shell system.

Density matrix renormalization group↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ligand Many-Body Expansion as a General Approach for Accelerating Transition Metal Complex Discovery

Methods that accelerate the evaluation of molecular properties are essential for chemical discovery. While some degree of ligand additivity has been established for transition metal complexes, it is underutilized in asymmetric complexes, such as the square pyramidal coordination geometries highly relevant to catalysis. To develop predictive methods beyond simple additivity, we apply a many-body expansion to octahedral and square pyramidal complexes and introduce a correction based on adjacent ligands (i.e., the cis interaction model). We first test the cis interaction model on adiabatic spin-splitting energies of octahedral Fe(II) complexes, predicting DFT-calculated values of unseen binary complexes to within an average of 1.4 kcal/mol. Uncertainty analysis reveals the optimal basis, comprising the homoleptic and mer symmetric complexes. We next show that the cis model (i.e., the cis interaction model solved for the optimal basis) infers both DFT- and CCSD(T)-calculated model catalytic reaction energies to within 1 kcal/mol on average. The cis model predicts low-symmetry complexes with reaction energies outside the range of binary complex reaction energies. We observe that trans interactions are unnecessary for most monodentate systems but can be important for some combinations of ligands, such as complexes containing a mixture of bidentate and monodentate ligands. Lastly, we demonstrate that the cis model may be combined with Δ-learning to predict CCSD(T) reaction energies from exhaustively calculated DFT reaction energies and the same fraction of CCSD(T) reaction energies needed for the cis model, achieving around 30% of the error from using the CCSD(T) reaction energies in the cis model alone.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗