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At least 793 records · Page 44

MONK10: A Monte Carlo Code for Criticality Analysis - 14574

The MONK{sup R} code, if we include its predecessor GEM, has now been in use for 50 years. It is a Monte Carlo code for nuclear criticality and reactor physics analyses which is used extensively in the UK nuclear industry and worldwide. In 2014 a major new version of the code, MONK10A, was released introducing many new features; these are described with example applications presented where appropriate. Experience with MONK9A models indicates that MONK10A has increased run-time performance for all cases and on average runs 2.4 times faster. New geometry options include the direct import of CAD generated models using the new IGES body, POLY body, TETMESH Hole and TETMESH Zone features. Example calculations for a selection of CAD import options are presented and compared with the intrinsic MONK geometry representation, with relative merits discussed. New Features are included to assist with the modeling of distributed parameters; such features include Unified Tally (UT), Action Tallies (AT) in UT and Shannon entropy. The latter is useful in assessing the convergence of distributed parameters, such as scalar neutron flux. As such it is an important tool in determining the appropriate point to stop settling and begin scoring stages in a Monte Carlo simulation. The utility of UT, AT-in-UT and Shannon entropy is demonstrated using calculations employing the new CAD import geometry options. Runtime Doppler broadening is included to allow accurate representation of temperature distributions within models. Example calculations which further demonstrate UT and AT-in-UT are presented for different bodies at different temperatures to evaluate the effects of temperature differences on k-effective and reaction rates. The MONK10A code was issued with a new set of continuous energy and group nuclear data libraries. These include JEFF3.1, JEFF3.1.1, JEFF 3.1.2, ENDF/B-VII.0 and CENDL 3.1 libraries. The inclusion of a range of libraries allows the user to evaluate the impact of different international nuclear data evaluations on their results and an example is provided to illustrate the differences that can arise from the use of different nuclear data evaluations. The code was also issued with a new version of the VisualWorkshop IDE to allow easy construction and editing of input decks, running of calculations and display of geometry and results. Examples are provided of the geometry and results display and showing how results can be superimposed upon the geometry. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

IGMS: An Integrated ISO-to-Appliance Scale Grid Modeling System

This paper describes the Integrated Grid Modeling System (IGMS), a novel electric power system modeling platform for integrated transmission-distribution analysis that co-simulates off-the-shelf tools on high performance computing (HPC) platforms to offer unprecedented resolution from ISO markets down to appliances and other end uses. Specifically, the system simultaneously models hundreds or thousands of distribution systems in co-simulation with detailed Independent System Operator (ISO) markets and AGC-level reserve deployment. IGMS uses a new MPI-based hierarchical co-simulation framework to connect existing sub-domain models. Our initial efforts integrate opensource tools for wholesale markets (FESTIV), bulk AC power flow (MATPOWER), and full-featured distribution systems including physics-based end-use and distributed generation models (many instances of GridLAB-D[TM]). The modular IGMS framework enables tool substitution and additions for multi-domain analyses. This paper describes the IGMS tool, characterizes its performance, and demonstrates the impacts of the coupled simulations for analyzing high-penetration solar PV and price responsive load scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Method to simultaneously facilitate all jet physics tasks

Machine learning has become an essential tool in jet physics. Due to their complex, high-dimensional nature, jets can be explored holistically by neural networks in ways that are not possible manually. However, innovations in all areas of jet physics are proceeding in parallel. We show that specially constructed machine learning models trained for a specific jet classification task can improve the accuracy, precision, or speed of all other jet physics tasks. This is demonstrated by training on a particular multiclass generation and classification task and then using the learned representation for different generation and classification tasks, for datasets with a different (full) detector simulation, for jets from a different collision system ($pp$ versus $ep$), for generative models, for likelihood ratio estimation, and for anomaly detection. We consider our omnilearn approach thus as a jet-physics foundation model. It is made publicly available for use in any area where state-of-the-art precision is required for analyses involving jets and their substructure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Grey-Box System Identification of Grid-Forming Inverters

This paper demonstrates the use of grey-box system identification methods for simplifying and understanding the nonlinear power dynamics of grid-forming inverters (GFMs). The power and frequency outputs of complex high-order GFM models are fed into system identification software in order to fit them to a predetermined LTI system and learn system parameters such as (synthetic) inertia and droop constants. The same process is then run for a high-order synchronous generator model, and the outputs are fit to the same set of LTI equations. Simulation of a network of GFM inverters with diverse control architecture is also performed for the same process. The intent is threefold: first, to demonstrate the appropriateness of unified LTI models for describing the power and frequency dynamics of individual resources and connected networks, in order to facilitate analysis of larger heterogeneous networked systems; second, to discover the relationship between internal control parameters of GFMs and their externally observed values; and third, to validate that grey-box data-driven system identification techniques can be a valuable tool to discover the values of important parameters in the absence of explicit vendor models.

analytical models↗

The July climate and a comparison of the January and July climates simulated by the GISS general circulation model

Results are presented for a study directed to evaluate the ability of the global general circulation model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in simulating seasonal differences as related to an experiment simulating the July climatology which parallels the January simulation presented by Somerville et al. (1974). The July and January simulations are compared with each other and with climatological data on seasonal changes, mainly for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere. The comparison shows that the model-generated energy cycle, distribution of winds, temperature, humidity and pressure, dynamical transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation and cloud cover are all realistic for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere in July. The model's simulation of seasonal differences is generally quite realistic since the systematic quantitative errors do not affect the simulation of relative changes, to first order. Defects that could seriously bias the model's performance in particular climate experiments are identified and discussed.

Stone, P. H.↗

Sarnoff JND Vision Model for Flat-Panel Design

This document describes adaptation of the basic Sarnoff JND Vision Model created in response to the NASA/ARPA need for a general-purpose model to predict the perceived image quality attained by flat-panel displays. The JND model predicts the perceptual ratings that humans will assign to a degraded color-image sequence relative to its nondegraded counterpart. Substantial flexibility is incorporated into this version of the model so it may be used to model displays at the sub-pixel and sub-frame level. To model a display (e.g., an LCD), the input-image data can be sampled at many times the pixel resolution and at many times the digital frame rate. The first stage of the model downsamples each sequence in time and in space to physiologically reasonable rates, but with minimum interpolative artifacts and aliasing. Luma and chroma parts of the model generate (through multi-resolution pyramid representation) a map of differences-between test and reference called the JND map, from which a summary rating predictor is derived. The latest model extensions have done well in calibration against psychophysical data and against image-rating data given a CRT-based front-end. THe software was delivered to NASA Ames and is being integrated with LCD display models at that facility,

Brill, Michael H.↗

Climate Predicts Geographic and Temporal Variation in Mosquito-Borne Disease Dynamics on Two Continents

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88%for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Climate-change ecology↗

Modeling Transitions to Connected and Automated Vehicles

Determine how cost, technology, and stakeholder behavior can accelerate or impede CAV adoption and affect energy use, both during transition and at end states with varying CAV use, through development of a semi-quantitative 'CAV scenario generation' model, identifying data gaps needing future research.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

The ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III competition: Overview and results

In late 2019, ASHRAE hosted the Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) machine learning competition on the Kaggle platform. This launch marked the third energy prediction competition from ASHRAE and the first since the mid-1990s. In this updated version, the competitors were provided with over 20 million points of training data from 2,380 energy meters collected for 1,448 buildings from 16 sources. This competition’s overall objective was to find the most accurate modeling solutions for the prediction of over 41 million private and public test data points. Furthermore, the competition had 4,370 participants, split across 3,614 teams from 94 countries who submitted 39,403 predictions. In addition to the top five winning workflows, the competitors publicly shared 415 reproducible online machine learning workflow examples (notebooks), including over 40 additional, full solutions. This paper gives a high-level overview of the competition preparation and dataset, competitors and their discussions, machine learning workflows and models generated, winners and their submissions, discussion of lessons learned, and competition outputs and next steps. The most popular and accurate machine learning workflows used large ensembles of mostly gradient boosting tree models, such as LightGBM. Similar to the first predictor competition, preprocessing of the data sets emerged as a key differentiator.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of Enhanced Risk Monitors for Use on Advanced Reactors

This study provides an overview of the methodology for integrating time-dependent failure probabilities into nuclear power reactor risk monitors. This prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology was evaluated using a hypothetical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, generated using a simplified design of a liquid-metal-cooled advanced reactor (AR). Component failure data from industry compilation of failures of components similar to those in the simplified AR model were used to initialize the PRA model. Core damage frequency (CDF) over time were computed and analyzed. In addition, a study on alternative risk metrics for ARs was conducted. Risk metrics that quantify the normalized cost of repairs, replacements, or other operations and management (O&M) actions were defined and used, along with an economic model, to compute the likely economic risk of future actions such as deferred maintenance based on the anticipated change in CDF due to current component condition and future anticipated degradation. Such integration of conventional-risk metrics with alternate-risk metrics provides a convenient mechanism for assessing the impact of O&M decisions on safety and economics of the plant. It is expected that, when integrated with supervisory control algorithms, such integrated-risk monitors will provide a mechanism for real-time control decision-making that ensure safety margins are maintained while operating the plant in an economically viable manner.

ECA↗

dfnWorks, Version 2.0

DFNWorks is a suite of software for generating and solving flow and transport physics on a Discrete Fracture Network (DFN). The suite is composed of three components: DFNGen: Stochastic fracture generation, mesh generation, model setup; DFNFlow: Flow solution using PFLOTRAN or FEHM control volume formulation solver; DFNTrans: Particle tracking transport; DFNGen Algorithm Description: This is a workflow that uses C++ software version for fracture generation, Python scripts written by the authors and the LaGriT software to generate computational mesh. DFNFlow The solution of flow in porous media is accomplished by coupling DFNGen output with the existing software packages FEHM and PFLOTRAN. The DFNWorks workflow involves modules and scripts that translate DFNGen output to formats compatible with FEHM and PFLOTRAN input. FEHM LA-CC-2012-083 PFLOTRAN LA-CC-09-047 LaGriT LA-CC-07-38 DFNTrans Stand-alone particle tracking algorithm that takes FEHM/PFLOTRAN flow solution as output and computes velocity field and advects particles.

Makedonska, Nataliia↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Measuring the Survey Transfer Function with Balrog

Abstract We describe an updated calibration and diagnostic framework, Balrog , used to directly sample the selection and photometric biases of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data set. We systematically inject onto the single-epoch images of a random 20% subset of the DES footprint an ensemble of nearly 30 million realistic galaxy models derived from DES Deep Field observations. These augmented images are analyzed in parallel with the original data to automatically inherit measurement systematics that are often too difficult to capture with generative models. The resulting object catalog is a Monte Carlo sampling of the DES transfer function and is used as a powerful diagnostic and calibration tool for a variety of DES Y3 science, particularly for the calibration of the photometric redshifts of distant “source” galaxies and magnification biases of nearer “lens” galaxies. The recovered Balrog injections are shown to closely match the photometric property distributions of the Y3 GOLD catalog, particularly in color, and capture the number density fluctuations from observing conditions of the real data within 1% for a typical galaxy sample. We find that Y3 colors are extremely well calibrated, typically within ∼1–8 mmag, but for a small subset of objects, we detect significant magnitude biases correlated with large overestimates of the injected object size due to proximity effects and blending. We discuss approaches to extend the current methodology to capture more aspects of the transfer function and reach full coverage of the survey footprint for future analyses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics.

Spar, J.↗

Simulation and diagnosis of water vapor imagery with mesoscale model output

The present simulation of 6.7-micron channel water vapor imagery employs March 6-7, 1982 soundings from the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) mesoscale model as inputs to a radiative transfer scheme. A comparison of model-generated and observed brightness temperatures indicates that LAMPS was able to replicate major features of the VAS imagery, including the pronounced warm, dry development streak and a cold cloud area. The model was not, however, able to resolve such finer-scaled details as the double structure of the development portion of the streak.

Muller, Bradley M.↗

Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

dfnWorks, Version 2.0

DFNWorks is a suite of software for generating and solving flow and transport physics on a Discrete Fracture Network (DFN). The suite is composed of three components: DFNGen: Stochastic fracture generation, mesh generation, model setup; DFNFlow: Flow solution using PFLOTRAN or FEHM control volume formulation solver; DFNTrans: Particle tracking transport; DFNGen Algorithm Description: This is a workflow that uses C++ software version for fracture generation, Python scripts written by the authors and the LaGriT software to generate computational mesh. DFNFlow The solution of flow in porous media is accomplished by coupling DFNGen output with the existing software packages FEHM and PFLOTRAN. The DFNWorks workflow involves modules and scripts that translate DFNGen output to formats compatible with FEHM and PFLOTRAN input. FEHM LA-CC-2012-083 PFLOTRAN LA-CC-09-047 LaGriT LA-CC-07-38 DFNTrans Stand-alone particle tracking algorithm that takes FEHM/PFLOTRAN flow solution as output and computes velocity field and advects particles.

Makedonska, Nataliia↗

Using gap-filled MAIAC AOD and WRF-Chem to estimate daily PM 2.5 concentrations at 1 km resolution in the Eastern United States

To link short-term exposures of air pollutants to health outcomes, scientists must use high temporal and spatial resolution estimates of PM 2.5 concentrations. We develop a daily PM 2.5 product at 1 × 1 km 2 spatial resolution across the eastern United States (east of 90° W) with the aid of 1 × 1 km 2 MAIAC aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, 36 × 36 km 2 WRF-Chem output, 1 × 1 km 2 land-use type from the National Land Cover Database, and 0.125° × 0.125° ERA-Interim re-analysis meteorology. A gap-filling technique is applied to MAIAC AOD data to construct robust daily estimates of AOD when the satellite data are missing (e.g., areas obstructed by clouds or snow cover). The input data are incorporated into a multiple-linear regression model trained to surface observations of PM 2.5 from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring network. The model generates a high-fidelity estimate (r 2 = 0.75 using a 10-fold random cross-validation) of daily PM 2.5 throughout the eastern United States. Of the inputs to the statistical model, WRF-Chem output (r 2 = 0.66) is the most important contributor to the skill of the model. MAIAC AOD is also a strong contributor (r 2 = 0.52). Daily PM 2.5 output from our statistical model can be easily integrated into county-level epidemiological studies. The novelty of this project is that we are able to simulate PM 2.5 in a computationally efficient manner that is constrained to ground monitors, satellite data, and chemical transport model output at high spatial resolution (1 × 1 km 2 ) without sacrificing the temporal resolution (daily) or spatial coverage (>2,000,000 km 2 ).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗