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At least 793 records · Page 44

Theoretical and Observational Determination of Global and Regional Radiation Budget, Forcing and Feedbacks at the Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface

Report consists of: 1. List of accomplishments 2. List of publications 3. Abstracts of published or submitted papers and 4. Subject invention disclosure. The accomplishments of the grant listed are: 1. Improved the third-order turbulence closure in cloud resolving models to remove the liquid water oscillation. 2. Used the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) large-eddy simulation (LES) model to provide data for radiation transfer testing. 3. Revised shortwave k-distribution models based on HITRAN 2000. 4. Developed a gamma-weighted two-stream radiative transfer model for radiation budget estimate applications. 5. Estimated the effect of spherical geometry to the earth radiation budget. 6. Estimated top-of-atmosphere irradiance over snow and sea ice surfaces. 7. Estimated the aerosol direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. 8. Estimated the top-of-atmosphere reflectance of the clear-sky molecular atmosphere over ocean. 9. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES TRMM satellite instrument (tropical) 10. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES Terra satellite instrument (global) 11. Quantified the top-of-atmosphere direct radiative effect of aerosols over global oceans from merged CERES and MODIS observations 12 Clarified the definition of TOA flux reference level for radiation budget studies 13. Developed new algorithm for unfaltering CERES measured radiances 14. Used multiangle POLDER measurements to produce narrowband angular distribution models and examine the effect of scene identification errors on TOA albedo estimates 15. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Reflectance Matching (MRM) model for inferring TOA albedos from ice clouds using multi-angle satellite measurements. 16. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Polarized Reflectance Matching (MPRM) model for inferring particle shapes from ice clouds using multi-angle polarized satellite measurements. 17. Developed 4 advanced light scattering models including the three-dimensional (3D) uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model. 18. Develop sunglint in situ measurement and study reflectance distribution in the sunglint area. 19. Lead a balloon-borne radiometer TOA albedo validation effort. 20. Developed a CERES surface UVB, UVA, and UV index product.

Loeb, Norman G.↗

Fermi’s Golden Rule Rate Expression for Transitions Due to Nonadiabatic Derivative Couplings in the Adiabatic Basis

Starting from a general molecular Hamiltonian expressed in the basis of adiabatic electronic and nuclear position states, where a compact and complete expression for the nonadiabatic derivative coupling (NDC) Hamiltonian term is obtained, we provide a general analysis of the Fermi’s golden rule (FGR) rate expression for nonadiabatic transitions between adiabatic states. We then consider a quasi-adiabatic approximation that uses crude adiabatic states and NDC couplings, both evaluated at the minimum potential energy configuration of the initial adiabatic state, for the definition of the zeroth and first-order terms of the Hamiltonian. Although the application of this approximation is rather limited, it allows deriving a general FGR rate expression without further approximation while accounting for non-Condon contribution to the FGR rate arising from momentum operators of NDC terms and its coupling with vibronic displacements. For a generic and widely used model where all nuclear degrees of freedom and environmental effects are represented as linearly coupled harmonic oscillators, we derive a closed-form FGR rate expression that requires only Fourier transform. The resulting rate expression includes quadratic contributions of NDC terms and their couplings to Franck–Condon modes, which require evaluation of two additional bath spectral densities in addition to the conventional one that appears in a typical FGR rate theory based on the Condon approximation. Model calculations for the case where nuclear vibrations consist of both a sharp high-frequency mode and an Ohmic bath spectral density illustrate new features and implications of the rate expression. We then apply our theoretical expression to the nonradiative decay from the first excited singlet state of azulene, which illustrates the utility and implications of our theoretical results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Fuzzy logic techniques for rendezvous and docking of two geostationary satellites

Large assemblings in space require the ability to manage rendezvous and docking operations. In future these techniques will be required for the gradual build up of big telecommunication platforms in the geostationary orbit. The paper discusses the use of fuzzy logic to model and implement a control system for the docking/berthing of two satellites in geostationary orbit. The system mounted in a chaser vehicle determines the actual state of both satellites and generates torques to execute maneuvers to establish the structural latching. The paper describes the proximity operations to collocate the two satellites in the same orbital window, the fuzzy guidance and navigation of the chaser approaching the target and the final Fuzzy berthing. The fuzzy logic system represents a knowledge based controller that realizes the close loop operations autonomously replacing the conventional control algorithms. The goal is to produce smooth control actions in the proximity of the target and during the docking to avoid disturbance torques in the final assembly orbit. The knowledge of the fuzzy controller consists of a data base of rules and the definitions of the fuzzy sets. The knowledge of an experienced spacecraft controller is captured into a set of rules forming the Rules Data Base.

Ortega, Guillermo↗

Automated Generation of Integrated Digital and Spiking Neuromorphic Machine Learning Accelerators

The growing numbers of application areas for artificial intelligence (AI) methods have led to an explosion of domain-specific accelerators that could support every new machine learning (ML) algorithm advancement, clearly highlighting the need for a capability to quickly and automatically transition from algorithm definition to hardware implementation and explore design space along a variety of SWaP (size, weight and Power). The software defined architectures (SODA) synthesizer implements a compiler-based modular infrastructure for the end-to-end generation of machine learning accelerators from high-level frameworks to hardware description language. At the same time, neuromorphic computing, by mimicking how the brain operates, promises to perform artificial intelligence tasks at efficiencies orders of magnitude higher than the current conventional tensor-processing based accelerators, as demonstrated by a variety of specialized designs leveraging Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs). Nevertheless, the mapping of an artificial neural network (ANN) to solutions supporting SNNs is still a non-trivial and very device-specific task, and completely lack the possibility to design hybrid systems that integrate conventional and spiking neural models. In this paper we discuss the support for such an integrated generation leveraging the SODA Synthesizer framework and its modular structure. In particular, we present a new MLIR dialect (part of the SODA frontend) that allows expressing spiking neural network features (e.g., available resources, spiking sequences, analog signal reading, etc.) and illustrate how it enables mapping to Spiking Neurons and deployment to the related specialized hardware (which, in the digital domain, could be generated through the other existing layers of the SODA Synthesizer). We then discuss the opportunities for even deeper integration afforded by the hardware compilation infrastructure, providing a path towards the generation of complex heterogeneous artificial intelligence systems.

Curzel, Serena↗

Shear coaxial injector instability mechanisms

There is no definitive knowledge of which of several concurrent processes ultimately results in unstable combustion within liquid rocket chambers employing shear coaxial injectors. Possible explanations are a detrimental change in the atomization characteristics due to a decrease in the gas-to-liquid velocity ratio, a change in the gas side injector pressure drop allowing acoustic coupling to the propellant feed system or the disappearance of a stabilizing recirculation region at the base of the LOX post. The aim of this research effort is to investigate these proposed mechanisms under conditions comparable to actual engine operation. Spray characterization was accomplished with flash photography and planar laser imaging to examine the overall spray morphology and liquid jet breakup processes and with a PDPA to quantify the spatial distribution of droplet size and mean axial velocity. A simplified stability model based on the Rayleigh criterion was constructed for the flow dynamics occurring within the chamber and injector to evaluate the potential coupling between the chamber and injector acoustic modes and was supported by high frequency measurements of chamber and injector pressure oscillations. To examine recirculation within the LOX post recess, velocity measurements were performed in the recess region by means of LDV. Present experiments were performed under noncombusting conditions using LOX/GH2 stimulants at pressures up to 4 MPa.

Puissant, C.↗

ON THE LANGUAGE OF RELIABILITY: A SYSTEM ENGINEER PERSPECTIVE

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences and how likely is it to occur. While this definition makes sense in a regulatory based framework to estimate risk associated to power plants (in terms of core damage frequency and large early release frequency), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant. A possible alternate path can start by redefining the word “risk” to a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision making process. Rather than asking how likely an event can occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. We will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring/diagnostic/prognostic centers, a margin can be described and determined for all type of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We will show how to link SSC margin-based reliability models to system reliability models (i.e., fault trees) in order to assess system/plant health and how to perform margin-based system calculations. These calculations are not solved using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed by any PRA code) but, instead, through metric spaces operations (i.e., distance/margin based approach).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Initial assessment of the effects of energetic ion injections in the magnetosphere due to the transport of satellite power system components from low earth orbit to geosynchronous earth orbit

Potentially serious environmental effects exist when cargo orbital transfer vehicle (COTV) ion propulsion is used on the scale proposed in the preliminary definition studies of the Satellite Power System. These effects of the large scale injections of ion propulsion exhaust in the plasmasphere and in the outer magnetosphere were shown to be highly model dependent with major differences existing in the predicted effects of two models, the ion cloud model and the ion sheath model. The expected total number density deposition of the propellant Ar(+) in the plasmasphere, the energy spectra of the deposited Ar(+) and time dependent behavior of the Ar(+) injected into the plasmasphere by a fleet of COTV vehicles differ drastically between the two models. The ion sheath model was demonstrated to be applicable to the proposed Ar(+) beam physics if the beam was divergent and turbulent whereas the ion cloud model was not a realistic approximation for such a beam because the "frozen-field" assumption on which it is based is not valid.

Curtis, S. A.↗

The Laser Ranging Experiment of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter: Five Years of Operations and Data Analysis

We describe the results of the Laser Ranging (LR) experiment carried out from June 2009 to September 2014 in order to make one-way time-of-flight measurements of laser pulses between Earth-based laser ranging stations and the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) orbiting the Moon. Over 4,000 hours of successful LR data are obtained from 10 international ground stations. The 20-30 centimeter precision of the full-rate LR data is further improved to 5-10 centimeter after conversion into normal points. The main purpose of LR is to utilize the high accuracy normal point data to improve the quality of the LRO orbits, which are nomi- nally determined by the radiometric S-band tracking data. When independently used in the LRO precision orbit determination process with the high-resolution GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) gravity model, LR data provide good orbit solutions, with an average difference of approximately 50 meters in total position, and approximately 20 centimeters in radial direction, compared to the definitive LRO trajectory. When used in combination with the S-band tracking data, LR data help to improve the orbit accuracy in the radial direction to approximately 15 centimeters. In order to obtain highly accurate LR range measurements for precise orbit determination results, it is critical to closely model the behavior of the clocks both at the ground stations and on the spacecraft. LR provides a unique data set to calibrate the spacecraft clock. The LRO spacecraft clock is characterized by the LR data to a timing knowledge of 0.015 milliseconds over the entire 5 years of LR operation. We here present both the engineering setup of the LR experiments and the detailed analysis results of the LR data.

Mao, Dandan↗

Mapping Bone Mineral Density Obtained by Quantitative Computed Tomography to Bone Volume Fraction

Methods for relating or mapping estimates of volumetric Bone Mineral Density (vBMD) obtained by Quantitative Computed Tomography to Bone Volume Fraction (BVF) are outlined mathematically. The methods are based on definitions of bone properties, cited experimental studies and regression relations derived from them for trabecular bone in the proximal femur. Using an experimental range of values in the intertrochanteric region obtained from male and female human subjects, age 18 to 49, the BVF values calculated from four different methods were compared to the experimental average and numerical range. The BVF values computed from the conversion method used data from two sources. One source provided pre bed rest vBMD values in the intertrochanteric region from 24 bed rest subject who participated in a 70 day study. Another source contained preflight vBMD values from 18 astronauts who spent 4 to 6 months on the ISS. To aid the use of a mapping from BMD to BVF, the discussion includes how to formulate them for purpose of computational modeling. An application of the conversions would be used to aid in modeling of time varying changes in vBMD as it relates to changes in BVF via bone remodeling and/or modeling.

Pennline, James A.↗

New Data-Driven Estimation of Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes in Asia Using a Standardized Database of Eddy Covariance Measurements, Remote Sensing Data, and Support Vector Regression

The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated carbon dioxide fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8 days are reproduced (e.g., r (exp 2) =0.73 and 0.42 for 8 day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r (exp 2)=1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land carbon dioxide fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land carbon dioxide fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land carbon dioxide fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗

Efficient Implementation of an Optimal Interpolator for Large Spatial Data Sets

Scattered data interpolation is a problem of interest in numerous areas such as electronic imaging, smooth surface modeling, and computational geometry. Our motivation arises from applications in geology and mining, which often involve large scattered data sets and a demand for high accuracy. The method of choice is ordinary kriging. This is because it is a best unbiased estimator. Unfortunately, this interpolant is computationally very expensive to compute exactly. For n scattered data points, computing the value of a single interpolant involves solving a dense linear system of size roughly n x n. This is infeasible for large n. In practice, kriging is solved approximately by local approaches that are based on considering only a relatively small'number of points that lie close to the query point. There are many problems with this local approach, however. The first is that determining the proper neighborhood size is tricky, and is usually solved by ad hoc methods such as selecting a fixed number of nearest neighbors or all the points lying within a fixed radius. Such fixed neighborhood sizes may not work well for all query points, depending on local density of the point distribution. Local methods also suffer from the problem that the resulting interpolant is not continuous. Meyer showed that while kriging produces smooth continues surfaces, it has zero order continuity along its borders. Thus, at interface boundaries where the neighborhood changes, the interpolant behaves discontinuously. Therefore, it is important to consider and solve the global system for each interpolant. However, solving such large dense systems for each query point is impractical. Recently a more principled approach to approximating kriging has been proposed based on a technique called covariance tapering. The problems arise from the fact that the covariance functions that are used in kriging have global support. Our implementations combine, utilize, and enhance a number of different approaches that have been introduced in literature for solving large linear systems for interpolation of scattered data points. For very large systems, exact methods such as Gaussian elimination are impractical since they require 0(n(exp 3)) time and 0(n(exp 2)) storage. As Billings et al. suggested, we use an iterative approach. In particular, we use the SYMMLQ method, for solving the large but sparse ordinary kriging systems that result from tapering. The main technical issue that need to be overcome in our algorithmic solution is that the points' covariance matrix for kriging should be symmetric positive definite. The goal of tapering is to obtain a sparse approximate representation of the covariance matrix while maintaining its positive definiteness. Furrer et al. used tapering to obtain a sparse linear system of the form Ax = b, where A is the tapered symmetric positive definite covariance matrix. Thus, Cholesky factorization could be used to solve their linear systems. They implemented an efficient sparse Cholesky decomposition method. They also showed if these tapers are used for a limited class of covariance models, the solution of the system converges to the solution of the original system. Matrix A in the ordinary kriging system, while symmetric, is not positive definite. Thus, their approach is not applicable to the ordinary kriging system. Therefore, we use tapering only to obtain a sparse linear system. Then, we use SYMMLQ to solve the ordinary kriging system. We show that solving large kriging systems becomes practical via tapering and iterative methods, and results in lower estimation errors compared to traditional local approaches, and significant memory savings compared to the original global system. We also developed a more efficient variant of the sparse SYMMLQ method for large ordinary kriging systems. This approach adaptively finds the correct local neighborhood for each query point in the interpolation process.

Memarsadeghi, Nargess↗

Gene co-expression network analysis in zebrafish reveals chemical class specific modules

Zebrafish is a popular animal model used for high-throughput screening of chemical hazards, however, investigations of transcriptomic mechanisms of toxicity are still needed. Here, our goal was to identify genes and biological pathways that Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor 2 (AHR2) Activators and flame retardant chemicals (FRCs) alter in developing zebrafish. Taking advantage of a compendium of phenotypically-anchored RNA sequencing data collected from 48-h post fertilization (hpf) zebrafish, we inferred a co-expression network that grouped genes based on their transcriptional response. Genes responding to the FRCs and AHR2 Activators localized to distinct regions of the network, with FRCs inducing a broader response related to neurobehavior. AHR2 Activators centered in one region related to chemical stress responses. We also discovered several highly co-expressed genes in this module, including cyp1a, and we subsequently show that these genes are definitively within the AHR2 signaling pathway. Systematic removal of the two chemical types from the data, and analysis of network changes identified neurogenesis associated with FRCs, and regulation of vascular development associated with both chemical classes. We also identified highly connected genes responding specifically to each class that are potential biomarkers of exposure. Overall, we created the first zebrafish chemical-specific gene co-expression network illuminating how chemicals alter the transcriptome relative to each other. In addition to our conclusions regarding FRCs and AHR2 Activators, our network can be leveraged by other studies investigating chemical mechanisms of toxicity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Globular cluster photometry with the Hubble Space Telescope. 3: Blue stragglers and variable stars in the core of M3

This paper describes Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/Planetary Camera-I images of the core of the dense globular cluster M3 (NGC 5272). Stellar photometry in the F555W (V) and F785LP (I) bands, with a 1-sigma photometric accuracy of about 0.1 mag, has been used to construct color-magnitude diagrams of about 4700 stars above the main-sequence turnoff within r less than or approximately equal to 1 min of the cluster center. We have also analyzed archival HST F336W (U) images of M3 obtained by the Wide Field/Planetary Camera-I Instrument Definition Team. The UVI data are used to identify 28 blue straggler (BS) stars within the central 0.29 sq. arcmin. The specific frequency of BSs in this region of M3, N(sub BS)/N(sub V less than (V(HB)+2)) = 0.094 +/- 0.019, is about a factor of 2 - 3 higher than that found by Bolte et al. in a recent ground-based study of the same region, but comparable to that seen in the sparse outer parts of the same cluster and in HST observations of the core of the higher density cluster 47 Tuc. The BSs in M3 are slightly more centrally concentrated than red giant branch stars while horizontal branch stars are somewhat less concentrated red giants. The radial distribution of V-selected subgiant and turnoff stars is well fit by a King model with a core radius r(sub core) = 28 arcmin +/- 2 arcmin (90% confidence limits), which corresponds to 1.4 pc. Red giant and horizontal branch stars selected in the ultraviolet data (U less than 18) have a somewhat more compact distribution (r(sub core) = 22.5 arcmin). The HST U data consist of 17 exposures acquired over a span of three days. We have used these data to isolate 40 variable stars for which relative astrometry, brightnesses, colors, and light curves are presented. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test indicates that, typically, the variability for each star is significant at the 95% level. We identify two variable BS candidates (probably of the SX Phe type), out of a sample of approximately 25 BSs in which variability could have been detected. Most of the variables are RR Lyrae stars on the horizontal branch. All of them have periods P greater than or approximately equal 8 h.

Guhathakurta, Puragra↗

An internally consistent gamma ray burst time history phenomenology

A phenomenology for gamma ray burst time histories is outlined. Order of their generally chaotic appearance is attempted, based on the speculation that any one burst event can be represented above 150 keV as a superposition of similarly shaped increases of varying intensity. The increases can generally overlap, however, confusing the picture, but a given event must at least exhibit its own limiting characteristic rise and decay times if the measurements are made with instruments having adequate temporal resolution. Most catalogued observations may be of doubtful or marginal utility to test this hypothesis, but some time histories from Helios-2, Pioneer Venus Orbiter and other instruments having one-to several-millisecond capabilities appear to provide consistency. Also, recent studies of temporally resolved Solar Maximum Mission burst energy spectra are entirely compatible with this picture. The phenomenology suggested here, if correct, may assist as an analytic tool for modelling of burst processes and possibly in the definition of burst source populations.

Cline, T. L.↗

Comparison of Ice Cloud Particle Sizes Retrieved From Satellite Data Derived From In Situ Measurements

Cloud microphysical parameterizations have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years due to their effect on cloud radiative properties and cloud-related hydrological processes in large-scale models. The parameterization of cirrus particle size has been demonstrated as an indispensable component in the climate feedback analysis. Therefore, global-scale, long-term observations of cirrus particle sizes are required both as a basis of and as a validation of parameterizations for climate models. While there is a global scale, long-term survey of water cloud droplet sizes (Han et al. 1994), there is no comparable study for cirrus ice crystals. In this paper a near-global survey of cirrus ice crystal sizes is conducted using ISCCP satellite data analysis. The retrieval scheme uses phase functions based upon hexagonal crystals calculated by a ray tracing technique. The results show that global mean values of D(e) are about 60 micro-m. This study also investigates the possible reasons for the significant difference between satellite retrieved effective radii (approx. 60 micro-m) and aircraft measured particle sizes (approx. 200 micro-m) during the FIRE I IFO experiment. They are (1) vertical inhomogeneity of cirrus particle sizes; (2) lower limit of the instrument used in aircraft measurements; (3) different definitions of effective particle sizes; and (4) possible inappropriate phase functions used in satellite retrieval.

Han, Qingyuan↗

Transverse cracking and stiffness reduction in composite laminates

A study of transverse cracking mechanism in composite laminates is presented using a singular hybrid finite element model. The model provides the global structural response as well as the precise local crack-tip stress fields. An elasticity basis for the problem is established by employing Lekhnitskii's complex variable potentials and method of eigenfunction expansion. Stress singularities associated with the transverse crack are obtained by decomposing the deformation into the symmetric and antisymmetric modes and proper boundary conditions. A singular hybrid element is thereby formulated based on the variational principle of a modified hybrid functional to incorporate local crack singularities. Axial stiffness reduction due to transverse cracking is studied. The results are shown to be in very good agreement with the existing experimental data. Comparison with simple shear lag analysis is also given. The effects of stress intensity factors and strain energy density on the increase of crack density are analyzed. The results reveal that the parameters approach definite limits when crack densities are saturated, an evidence of the existence of characteristic damage state.

Yuan, F. G.↗

Evaluation of semiempirical atmospheric density models for orbit determination applications

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.

Cox, C. M.↗