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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Predicting the Size and Timing of Sunspot Maximum for Cycle 24

For cycle 24, the minimum value of the 12-month moving average (12-mma) of the AA-geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (AAm) appears to have occurred in September 2009, measuring about 8.4 nT and following sunspot minimum by 9 months. This is the lowest value of AAm ever recorded, falling below that of 8.9 nT, previously attributed to cycle 14, which also is the smallest maximum amplitude (RM) cycle of the modern era (RM = 64.2). Based on the method of Ohl (the preferential association between RM and AAm for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to have RM = 55+/-17 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval). Instead, using a variation of Ohl's method, one based on using 2-cycle moving averages (2-cma), one expects cycle 23's 2-cma of RM to be about 115.5+/-8.7 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval), inferring an RM of about 62+/-35 for cycle 24. Hence, it seems clear that cycle 24 will be smaller in size than was seen in cycle 23 (RM = 120.8) and, likely, will be comparable in size to that of cycle 14. From the Waldmeier effect (the preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to be a slow-rising cycle (ASC > or equal to 48 months), having RM occurrence after December 2012, unless it turns out to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Maximum Torque and Momentum Envelopes for Reaction Wheel Arrays

Spacecraft reaction wheel maneuvers are limited by the maximum torque and/or angular momentum that the wheels can provide. For an n-wheel configuration, the torque or momentum envelope can be obtained by projecting the n-dimensional hypercube, representing the domain boundary of individual wheel torques or momenta, into three dimensional space via the 3xn matrix of wheel axes. In this paper, the properties of the projected hypercube are discussed, and algorithms are proposed for determining this maximal torque or momentum envelope for general wheel configurations. Practical strategies for distributing a prescribed torque or momentum among the n wheels are presented, with special emphasis on configurations of four, five, and six wheels.

Markley, F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS2005

Generalized Maximum Entropy

A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

Cheeseman, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of C-Band Polarimetric Radar-Based Drop Size Distribution Measurements to Maximum Diameter Assumptions

The estimation of rain drop size distribution (DSD) parameters from polarimetric radar observations is accomplished by first establishing a relationship between differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) and the central tendency of the rain DSD such as the median volume diameter (D0). Since Z(sub dr) does not provide a direct measurement of DSD central tendency, the relationship is typically derived empirically from rain drop and radar scattering models (e.g., D0 = F[Z (sub dr)] ). Past studies have explored the general sensitivity of these models to temperature, radar wavelength, the drop shape vs. size relation, and DSD variability. Much progress has been made in recent years in measuring the drop shape and DSD variability using surface-based disdrometers, such as the 2D Video disdrometer (2DVD), and documenting their impact on polarimetric radar techniques. In addition to measuring drop shape, another advantage of the 2DVD over earlier impact type disdrometers is its ability to resolve drop diameters in excess of 5 mm. Despite this improvement, the sampling limitations of a disdrometer, including the 2DVD, make it very difficult to adequately measure the maximum drop diameter (D(sub max)) present in a typical radar resolution volume. As a result, D(sub max) must still be assumed in the drop and radar models from which D0 = F[Z(sub dr)] is derived. Since scattering resonance at C-band wavelengths begins to occur in drop diameters larger than about 5 mm, modeled C-band radar parameters, particularly Z(sub dr), can be sensitive to D(sub max) assumptions. In past C-band radar studies, a variety of D(sub max) assumptions have been made, including the actual disdrometer estimate of D(sub max) during a typical sampling period (e.g., 1-3 minutes), D(sub max) = C (where C is constant at values from 5 to 8 mm), and D(sub max) = M*D0 (where the constant multiple, M, is fixed at values ranging from 2.5 to 3.5). The overall objective of this NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM/PMM Science Team)-funded study is to document the sensitivity of DSD measurements, including estimates of D0, from C-band Z(sub dr) and reflectivity to this range of D(sub max) assumptions. For this study, GPM Ground Validation 2DVD's were operated under the scanning domain of the UAHuntsville ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar. Approximately 7500 minutes of DSD data were collected and processed to create gamma size distribution parameters using a truncated method of moments approach. After creating the gamma parameter datasets the DSD's were then used as input to a T-matrix model for computation of polarimetric radar moments at C-band. All necessary model parameterizations, such as temperature, drop shape, and drop fall mode, were fixed at typically accepted values while the D(sub max) assumption was allowed to vary in sensitivity tests. By hypothesizing a DSD model with D(sub max) (fit) from which the empirical fit to D0 = F[Z(sub dr)] was derived via non-linear least squares regression and a separate reference DSD model with D(sub max) (truth), bias and standard error in D0 retrievals were estimated in the presence of Z(sub dr) measurement error and hypothesized mismatch in D(sub max) assumptions. Although the normalized standard error for D0 = F[Z(sub dr)r] can increase slightly (as much as from 11% to 16% for all 7500 DSDs) when the D(sub max) (fit) does not match D(sub max) (truth), the primary impact of uncertainty in D(sub max) is a potential increase in normalized bias error in D0 (from 0% to as much as 10% over all 7500 DSDs, depending on the extent of the mismatch between D(sub max) (fit) and D(sub max) (truth)). For DSDs characterized by large Z(sub dr) (Z(sub dr) > 1.5 to 2.0 dB), the normalized bias error for D0 estimation at C-band is sometimes unacceptably large (> 10%), again depending on the extent of the hypothesized D(sub max) mismatch. Modeled errors in D0 retrievals from Z(sub dr) at C-band are demonstrated in detail and comparedo similar modeled retrieval errors at S-band and X-band where the sensitivity to D(sub max) is expected to be less. The impact of D(sub max) assumptions to the retrieval of other DSD parameters such as Nw, the liquid water content normalized intercept parameter, are also explored. Likely implications for DSD retrievals using C-band polarimetric radar for GPM are assessed by considering current community knowledge regarding D(sub max) and quantifying the statistical distribution of Z(sub dr) from ARMOR over a large variety of meteorological conditions. Based on these results and the prevalence of C-band polarimetric radars worldwide, a call for more emphasis on constraining our observational estimate of D(sub max) within a typical radar resolution volume is made

Carey, Lawrence D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Solar Maximum on the Earth's Satellite Population and Space Situational Awareness

The rapidly approaching maximum of Solar Cycle 24 will have wide-ranging effects not only on the number and distribution of resident space objects, but also on vital aspects of space situational awareness, including conjunction assessment processes. The best known consequence of high solar activity is an increase in the density of the thermosphere, which, in turn, increases drag on the vast majority of objects in low Earth orbit. The most prominent evidence of this is seen in a dramatic increase in space object reentries. Due to the massive amounts of new debris created by the fragmentations of Fengyun-1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 during the recent period of Solar Minimum, this effect might reach epic levels. However, space surveillance systems are also affected, both directly and indirectly, historically leading to an increase in the number of lost satellites and in the routine accuracy of the calculation of their orbits. Thus, at a time when more objects are drifting through regions containing exceptionally high-value assets, such as the International Space Station and remote sensing satellites, their position uncertainties increase. In other words, as the possibility of damaging and catastrophic collisions increases, our ability to protect space systems is degraded. Potential countermeasures include adjustments to space surveillance techniques and the resetting of collision avoidance maneuver thresholds.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling and Maximum Likelihood Fitting of Gamma-Ray and Radio Light Curves of Millisecond Pulsars Detected with Fermi

Pulsed gamma rays have been detected with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from more than 20 millisecond pulsars (MSPs), some of which were discovered in radio observations of bright, unassociated LAT sources. We have fit the radio and gamma-ray light curves of 19 LAT-detected MSPs in the context of geometric, outermagnetospheric emission models assuming the retarded vacuum dipole magnetic field using a Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood technique. We find that, in many cases, the models are able to reproduce the observed light curves well and provide constraints on the viewing geometries that are in agreement with those from radio polarization measurements. Additionally, for some MSPs we constrain the altitudes of both the gamma-ray and radio emission regions. The best-fit magnetic inclination angles are found to cover a broader range than those of non-recycled gamma-ray pulsars.

Johnson, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Relation between Coronal Holes and Coronal Mass Ejections during the Rise, Maximum, and Declining Phases of Solar Cycle 23

We study the interaction between coronal holes (CHs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using a resultant force exerted by all the coronal holes present on the disk and is defined as the coronal hole influence parameter (CHIP). The CHIP magnitude for each CH depends on the CH area, the distance between the CH centroid and the eruption region, and the average magnetic field within the CH at the photospheric level. The CHIP direction for each CH points from the CH centroid to the eruption region. We focus on Solar Cycle 23 CMEs originating from the disk center of the Sun (central meridian distance ≤15deg) and resulting in magnetic clouds (MCs) and non-MCs in the solar wind. The CHIP is found to be the smallest during the rise phase for MCs and non-MCs. The maximum phase has the largest CHIP value (2.9 G) for non-MCs. The CHIP is the largest (5.8 G) for driverless (DL) shocks, which are shocks at 1 AU with no discernible MC or non-MC. These results suggest that the behavior of non-MCs is similar to that of the DL shocks and different from that of MCs. In other words, the CHs may deflect the CMEs away from the Sun-Earth line and force them to behave like limb CMEs with DL shocks. This finding supports the idea that all CMEs may be flux ropes if viewed from an appropriate vantage point.

CMEs↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data. Part II: Using Maximum Covariance Analysis to Effectively Compare Spatiotemporal Variability of Satellite and AERONET Measured Aerosol Optical Depth

Moderate Resolution Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiomater (MISR) provide regular aerosol observations with global coverage. It is essential to examine the coherency between space- and ground-measured aerosol parameters in representing aerosol spatial and temporal variability, especially in the climate forcing and model validation context. In this paper, we introduce Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA), also known as Singular Value Decomposition analysis as an effective way to compare correlated aerosol spatial and temporal patterns between satellite measurements and AERONET data. This technique not only successfully extracts the variability of major aerosol regimes but also allows the simultaneous examination of the aerosol variability both spatially and temporally. More importantly, it well accommodates the sparsely distributed AERONET data, for which other spectral decomposition methods, such as Principal Component Analysis, do not yield satisfactory results. The comparison shows overall good agreement between MODIS/MISR and AERONET AOD variability. The correlations between the first three modes of MCA results for both MODIS/AERONET and MISR/ AERONET are above 0.8 for the full data set and above 0.75 for the AOD anomaly data. The correlations between MODIS and MISR modes are also quite high (greater than 0.9). We also examine the extent of spatial agreement between satellite and AERONET AOD data at the selected stations. Some sites with disagreements in the MCA results, such as Kanpur, also have low spatial coherency. This should be associated partly with high AOD spatial variability and partly with uncertainties in satellite retrievals due to the seasonally varying aerosol types and surface properties.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2014

Simple Statistical Model to Quantify Maximum Expected EMC in Spacecraft and Avionics Boxes

This study shows cumulative distribution function (CDF) comparisons of composite a fairing electromagnetic field data obtained by computational electromagnetic 3D full wave modeling and laboratory testing. Test and model data correlation is shown. In addition, this presentation shows application of the power balance and extention of this method to predict the variance and maximum exptected mean of the E-field data. This is valuable for large scale evaluations of transmission inside cavities.

Models↗
NASA NTRS2015

High Output Maximum Efficiency Resonator (HOMER) Laser for NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar Mission

The Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is a planned mission sending a LIDAR instrument to the International Space Station that will employ three NASA laser transmitters. This instrument will produce parallel tracks on the Earth's surface that will provide global 3D vegetation canopy measurements. To meet the mission goals a total of 5 High Output Maximum Efficiency Resonator lasers will to be built (1 ETU + 3 Flight + 1 spare) in-house at NASA-GSFC. This presentation will summarize the HOMER design, the testing the design has completed in the past, and the plans to successfully build the units needed for the GEDI mission.

soil↗
NASA NTRS2016

Curating NASA's Future Extraterrestrial Sample Collections: How Do We Achieve Maximum Proficiency?

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10E "Curation of Extraterrestrial Materials", JSC is charged with "The curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions." The Directive goes on to define Curation as including "... documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for research, education, and public outreach." Here we describe some of the ongoing efforts to ensure that the future activities of the NASA Curation Office are working towards a state of maximum proficiency.

McCubbin, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Gradient Compression Garments as a Countermeasure to Post-Space Flight Orthostatic Intolerance: Potential Interactions with the Maximum Absorbency Garment

Astronauts and cosmonauts may experience symptoms of orthostatic intolerance during re-entry, landing, and for several days post-landing following short- and long-duration spaceflight. Presyncopal symptoms have been documented in approximately 20% of short-duration and greater than 60% of long-duration flyers on landing day specifically during 5-10 min of controlled (no countermeasures employed at the time of testing) stand tests or 80 deg head-up tilt tests. Current operational countermeasures to orthostatic intolerance include fluid loading prior to and whole body cooling during re-entry as well as compression garments that are worn during and for up to several days after landing. While both NASA and the Russian space program have utilized compression garments to protect astronauts and cosmonauts traveling on their respective vehicles, a "next-generation" gradient compression garment (GCG) has been developed and tested in collaboration with a commercial partner to support future space flight missions. Unlike previous compression garments used operationally by NASA that provide a single level of compression across only the calves, thighs, and lower abdomen, the GCG provides continuous coverage from the feet to below the pectoral muscles in a gradient fashion (from approximately 55 mm Hg at the feet to approximately 16 mmHg across the abdomen). The efficacy of the GCG has been demonstrated previously after a 14-d bed rest study without other countermeasures and after short-duration Space Shuttle missions. Currently the GCG is being tested during a stand test following long-duration missions (~6 months) to the International Space Station. While results to date have been promising, interactions of the GCG with other space suit components have not been examined. Specifically, it is unknown whether wearing the GCG over NASA's Maximum Absorbency Garment (MAG; absorbent briefs worn for the collection of urine and feces while suited during re-entry and landing) will interfere with the effectiveness of the GCG or conversely whether the GCG will reduce the fluid absorption capabilities of the MAG. Methods: This operational, directed study, will (1) determine whether the effectiveness of the GCG is affected by the MAG with regard to cardiovascular responses to head-up tilt, the standard orthostatic intolerance test employed for astronauts and bed rest subjects; (2) determine whether the effectiveness of the MAG is compromised by the GCG tested by injecting a standard fluid volume (950 ml in 3 separate simulated "urine voids") at a standardized rate (30 ml/sec); and (3) determine whether comfort is affected by wearing the MAG under the GCG using a standardized questionnaire. Results from this study will guide future development and operational use of the GCG and MAG to maximize crew health, safety, and comfort.

Lee, S. M. C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Alternative Trait-Scaling Hypotheses for the Maximum Photosynthetic Carboxylation Rate (V (sub cmax)) on Global Gross Primary Production

The maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (V (sub cmax)) is an influential plant trait that has multiple scaling hypotheses, which is a source of uncertainty in predictive understanding of global gross primary production (GPP). Four trait-scaling hypotheses (plant functional type, nutrient limitation, environmental filtering, and plant plasticity) with nine specific implementations were used to predict global V(sub cmax) distributions and their impact on global GPP in the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM). Global GPP varied from 108.1 to 128.2 petagrams of Carbon (PgC) per year, 65 percent of the range of a recent model intercomparison of global GPP. The variation in GPP propagated through to a 27percent coefficient of variation in net biome productivity (NBP). All hypotheses produced global GPP that was highly correlated (r equals 0.85-0.91) with three proxies of global GPP. Plant functional type-based nutrient limitation, underpinned by a core SDGVM hypothesis that plant nitrogen (N) status is inversely related to increasing costs of N acquisition with increasing soil carbon, adequately reproduced global GPP distributions. Further improvement could be achieved with accurate representation of water sensitivity and agriculture in SDGVM. Mismatch between environmental filtering (the most data-driven hypothesis) and GPP suggested that greater effort is needed understand V(sub cmax) variation in the field, particularly in northern latitudes.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Group Maximum Entropy Model for Translational Non-Equilibrium

The aim of the current work is to describe a new model for flows in translational non- equilibrium. Starting from the statistical description of a gas proposed by Boltzmann, the model relies on a domain decomposition technique in velocity space. Using the maximum entropy principle, the logarithm of the distribution function in each velocity sub-domain (group) is expressed with a power series in molecular velocity. New governing equations are obtained using the method of weighted residuals by taking the velocity moments of the Boltzmann equation. The model is applied to a spatially homogeneous Boltzmann equation with a Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook1(BGK) model collision operator and the relaxation of an initial non-equilibrium distribution to a Maxwellian is studied using the model. In addition, numerical results obtained using the model for a 1D shock tube problem are also reported.

Entropy↗
NASA NTRS2017

Aerial Vehicles to Detect Maximum Volume of Plume Material Associated with Habitable Areas in Extreme Environments

Current technologies of exploring habitable areas of icy moons are limited to flybys of space probes. This research project addresses long-term navigation of icy moons by developing a MATLAB adjustable trajectory based on the volume of plume material observed. Plumes expose materials from the sub-surface without accessing the subsurface. Aerial vehicles capable of scouting vapor plumes and detecting maximum plume material volumes, which are considered potentially habitable in inhospitable environments, would enable future deep-space missions to search for extraterrestrial organisms on the surface of icy moons. Although this platform is still a prototype, it demonstrates the potential aerial vehicles can have in improving the capabilities of long-term space navigation and enabling technology for detecting life in extreme environments. Additionally, this work is developing the capabilities that could be utilized as a platform for space biology research. For example, aerial vehicles that are sent to map extreme environments of icy moons or the planet Mars, could also carry small payloads with automated cell-biology experiments, designed to probe the biological response of low-gravity and high-radiation planetary environments, serving as a pathfinder for future human missions.

Vehicles Extreme Environment↗
NASA NTRS2017

Causes of Interannual Variability over the Southern Hemispheric Tropospheric Ozone Maximum

We examine the relative contribution of processes controlling the interannual variability (IAV) of tropospheric ozone over four sub-regions of the southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone maximum (SHTOM) over a 20-year period. Our study is based on hindcast simulations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model (NASA GMI-CTM) of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, driven by assimilated Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. Our analysis shows that over SHTOM region, the IAV of the stratospheric contribution is the most important factor driving the IAV of upper tropospheric ozone (270 hectopascals), where ozone has a strong radiative effect. Over the South Atlantic region, the contribution from surface emissions to the IAV of ozone exceeds that from stratospheric input at and below 430 hectopascals. Over the South Indian Ocean, the IAV of stratospheric ozone makes the largest contribution to the IAV of ozone with little or no influence from surface emissions at 270 and 430 hectopascals in austral winter. Over the tropical South Atlantic region, the contribution from IAV of stratospheric input dominates in austral winter at 270 hectopascals and drops to less than half but is still significant at 430 hectopascals. Emission contributions are not significant at these two levels. The IAV of lightning over this region also contributes to the IAV of ozone in September and December. Over the tropical southeastern Pacific, the contribution of the IAV of stratospheric input is significant at 270 and 430 hectopascals in austral winter, and emissions have little influence.

Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport mod↗
NASA NTRS2018

Further Evaluation of Swept Wing Icing Scaling with Maximum Combined Cross Section Ice Shape Profiles

This study reports results from recent icing scaling tests conducted in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) using recommended scaling methods that were developed for swept wing icing applications. The aluminum test articles used in this study were NACA 0012 Adjustable Sweep Airfoil Models. The reference and scale airfoils have a 36 inch and 15 inch chord measured normal to the leading edge, and a 60 inch and 24 inch span respectively. Reference tests were run with airspeeds of 100, 140.3 and 150 knot and MVD of 41.4, 44.4, 93 and 150 micron. All tests were set at 0⁰ angle of attack (AOA) and 30⁰ sweep angle. Results will be presented for stagnation freezing fractions ranging from 0.3 to 1.0. For non-dimensional reference & scale ice shape comparison, a new post-scanning ice shape digitization procedure was applied to extract 2-D "hand-tracing like" ice shape profiles, i.e. the Maximum Combined Cross Section or MCCS, at selected span-wise locations from the high fidelity 3-D scanned ice shapes obtained in the IRT. Preliminary assessment of ice shape comparison with MCCS showed that good scaling was achieved for the test conditions by using the recommended scaling methods developed for swept wing icing.

MCCS↗