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DOE OSTI2026

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aero-Mechanical Design Methodology for Subsonic Civil Transport High-Lift Systems

In today's highly competitive and economically driven commercial aviation market, the trend is to make aircraft systems simpler and to shorten their design cycle which reduces recurring, non-recurring and operating costs. One such system is the high-lift system. A methodology has been developed which merges aerodynamic data with kinematic analysis of the trailing-edge flap mechanism with minimum mechanism definition required. This methodology provides quick and accurate aerodynamic performance prediction for a given flap deployment mechanism early on in the high-lift system preliminary design stage. Sample analysis results for four different deployment mechanisms are presented as well as descriptions of the aerodynamic and mechanism data required for evaluation. Extensions to interactive design capabilities are also discussed.

vanDam, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗

DOE OSTI2022

WBS 1.2.3.405 - Life Cycle Assessment of Storage Technologies

Recent commitments by the Biden administration have established targets to achieve a net-zero energy system by 2050. Meeting these targets will spur a rapid transition to clean energy technologies and a commensurate need to develop and deploy energy storage technologies at scale. Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) is expected to be part of this solution because its ability to provide grid flexibility and stability and enable the dispatching of disparate variable renewable energy technologies. Despite PSH being a mature technology with a history of deployment dating back several decades, there is very little information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of PSH as compared to other storage technologies. The objective of this project is to perform a full lifecycle assessment (LCA) of new PSH projects in the U.S. This LCA includes all project phases (resource extraction, construction, operation, maintenance, end-of-life). The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh electricity delivered by system to grid substation connection point and the estimated lifetime for our base case is 80 years. Data used in this study are based on over 30 potential PSH projects that are in preliminary planning phases and are represent a wide range of potential closed-loop PSH systems in terms of location, technology, and capacity. The project approach, data sources, and modeling assumptions have been informed by a technical review committee of stakeholders that include experts from academia, national and international government, industry, and utilities. The GHGs and energy return on investment (EROI) from PSH will be compared to other storage technologies (e.g., stationary battery storage). Results from this project will improve the PSH community's understanding of the environmental impacts and sustainability of new PSH projects and how PSH compares to other storage technologies. The approach used in this project relies on open-source programming. The analysis framework (source code and data) and will be made publicly available at the end of the project. In addition to reporting results for the base case, we will perform rigorous sensitivity analysis to identify the major drivers, understand impacts of different configurations, and future energy markets. Results from this project will be published in a suitable journal.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Hierarchical Local Electricity Market for a DER-rich Grid Edge

We report with increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in the distribution system, it is critical to design market structures that enable smooth integration of DERs. A hierarchical local electricity market (LEM) structure is proposed in this paper with a secondary market (SM) at the lower level representing secondary feeders and a primary market (PM) at the upper level, representing primary feeders, in order to effectively use DERs to increase grid efficiency and resilience. The lower level SM enforces budget, power balance, and flexibility constraints and accounts for costs related to consumers, such as their disutility, flexibility limits, and commitment reliability, while the upper level PM enforces grid physics constraints such as power balance and capacity limits, and also minimizes line losses. The hierarchical LEM is extensively evaluated using a modified IEEE-123 bus with high DER penetration, with each primary feeder consisting of at least three secondary feeders. Data from a GridLAB-D model is used to emulate realistic power injections and load profiles over the course of 24 hours. The performance of the LEM is illustrated by delineating the family of power-injection profiles across the primary and secondary feeders as well as corresponding local electricity tariffs that vary across the distribution grid. Through numerical simulations, the hierarchical LEM is shown to improve the efficiency of the market in terms of lowering overall costs, including both the distribution-level locational marginal prices (d-LMP) as well as retail tariffs paid by customers. Together, it represents an overall framework for a Distribution System Operator (DSO) who can provide the oversight for the entire LEM.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Li-ion Battery Performance for Impurity-doped NMC Cathodes Using Deep Learning

With the electric vehicle (EV) market expansion and the energy sector's shift towards electrification, the demand for battery metals, including lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), and nickel (Ni), is set to surpass supply. A critical knowledge gap exists in the purity standards for battery precursors and the impact of impurities on battery performance. Addressing this, our study employs a Deep Machine Learning (DL) based multi-objective optimization approach to interpret the relationship between metal impurities in domestic battery resources and their effects on battery performance. We analyze experimental data from Li-ion batteries with NMC (Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt oxide) cathodes over 1000 cycles, representing approximately ~6-8 months of operation, to establish a baseline of performance without impurities. Leveraging this data, we develop a Physics-Informed Deep Learning (PIDL) framework to extend our findings to cases that include metal impurities (e.g., Fe, Cu, Al) ranging from (0.001 - 0.01) %, respectively. By incorporating physics-based features, our PIDL model can accurately estimate the performance of NMC cathodes doped with various metal impurities to provide rapid design decisions. This research paves the way for informed decisions in Li-ion battery material design and optimization, ensuring the sustainable growth of the EV market and the broader energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thriving in the Carbon-Aware Market: How to Account for Emissions in the Era of Carbon-Centered Trade Policies

Emerging global policies, such as the European Union's enacted Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and similar policies under development in Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom, will place a premium on goods traded into their territories with higher embedded emissions than those produced domestically. U.S. manufacturers could stand to benefit from such policies; given the investments U.S. industry has made to reduce the energy and emission intensities of its operations. For example, the overall GHG intensity of U.S. steel production in 2019 was ~0.96 t CO2/t steel, less than half that of China (~1.97 t CO2/t steel), and bested only by Italy. To realize these benefits, transparent, accurate, interoperable and accepted embedded emissions accounting and calculation methods are required. Achieving this requires overcoming challenges related to data availability, boundary definitions, and product definitions among others, both at individual facilities as well as through value chains. We will present technical findings on methodology considerations and data-availability constraints for determining the emissions of traded goods, using steel as a pilot and leveraging publicly available data. Issues such as determining the appropriate scope for emissions accounting, implications of the specificity of product chosen, emissions allocation in multi-product facilities, and enumeration of emissions for products manufactured across multiple facilities will be discussed. By sharing the results of our efforts, we aim to inform the development and execution of embedded emissions accounting methods from a technical perspective such that U.S. manufacturers can thrive in emerging global markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sources of Propane Consumed in California

Project Scope: The objective of this study is to specify the sources of propane consumed in California. It answers the questions, where does the propane used in California come from and how was it produced? The results of this study provide comprehensive, transparent, and verifiable estimates, based on the 2018 market. The information provided in this report is suitable for use to assess the life cycle carbon intensity of propane used as a transportation fuel in California. As the 2009 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) aims to reduce California’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other smog-forming and toxic air pollutants, the appropriate designation of carbon intensity for propane as a transportation fuel is important for evaluating propane’s potential to contribute to GHG goals and understandings in the context of various actions. This study focuses on estimating the shares of total propane consumed in the state of California produced from petroleum refineries, natural gas plants, and bituminous sands sources inside California and elsewhere. Results: An estimated 590 million gallons of propane were consumed in California in 2018, of which, 59.5% originated from refinery production and 40.5% originated from natural gas plants. The majority of this was sourced from refinery production in California, 334 million gallons. Most of the propane imported to California for consumption was sourced from natural gas plants, 113 million gallons, with over half of the imported volume sourced from Canada. The volume sourced from bituminous sand upgrader and fractionator operations was negligible. Details from this analysis are presented in the table below which provides an overview of the propane flows estimated in this study by region and production method. The shares and volumes presented here represent a snapshot for 2018. A significant increase in propane demand, such as could be caused by increased use of propane as a transportation fuel in the state, would affect California’s propane production, imports, and exports. The method and data sources used for the estimates provided in this report also provide the framework which could be used for future updates. Key Method Considerations: The values presented here are based on a two-step approach where the first step was to determine the flows of propane into and out of California from different regions and the second step was to estimate the propane production methods in each region. A volume balance approach is used as the primary method for tracking the volume of propane in and out of California as propane production and import volumes are available by Petroleum Administration of Defense District (PADD) from EIA and neither inter-PADD propane transfers nor state-specific non-prime supplier consumption are available from a public data source. The volume balance performed for this study covered PADD 5 (the West Coast), which includes Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. The volume balance used all available public datasets to determine propane production, imports, exports, and consumption. Volumes unaccounted for by these datasets were estimated using the resulting volume balance by assuming market equilibrium. Consumption within each state in PADD 5 was estimated based on known import, export, and production volumes and this amount was used to develop the volume balance. EIA only tracks consumption at the state level by prime supplier sales. The volume balance approach provides the basis to correct for additional propane consumed in-states where propane is transferred to California. To determine the California propane sources and trade in 2018. volume of propane consumed in California, the volume balance approach is again used where it was estimated all imported volumes not specifically flagged for re-export were consumed, and the remaining consumption was produced in-state. The California Energy Commission (CEC) provided the total volume of propane imported and exported from California in 2018; this volume data set along with commodity tracking from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) and the International Trade Commission (ITC) which tracks port of entry and final destination was used to determine where propane originated from and where it was ultimately consumed. For example, the CER tracks propane leaving Canada and entering each state within the U.S. Imported propane from Canada to California – marked for California – is assumed to be consumed in California. When no further data were available, import volumes were assumed to be consumed in California without pass-through (i.e., no propane imported to California was directly sold and exported). In most cases, the production method for each propane source region was applied to the volume of propane transferred to California. In other words, the shares of propane sourced from natural gas and refineries for each production region was assigned to California imports based on their contribution to the total volume flows into California to determine the production method for propane consumed in-state. For volumes imported into California from PADD 4, Washington State, Canada, and the rest of the world (Argentina, Chile, Norway, Peru, South Korea, and Trinidad and Tobago), the volumes sourced from petroleum refineries and natural gas plants reflect the either production ratio for the region or, in cases where the sources specific to the amounts exported to California could be determined, the sources specific to the volumes transferred to California.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Highlights of this year’s update include: -10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states. -94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.32$/WAC (or $\$1.07$/WDC) in 2022. -Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$39$/MWh in 2022 ($\$29$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20-30$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. -In 2022, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 40% to $\$71$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 4 of the 7 ISOs/RTOs and 11 of 18 other balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from ~100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -the end of 2022, there were at least 947 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 456 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1971

Study of aircraft in intraurban transportation systems, volume 1

An analysis of an effective short range, high density computer transportation system for intraurban systems is presented. The seven county Detroit, Michigan, metropolitan area, was chosen as the scenario for the analysis. The study consisted of an analysis and forecast of the Detroit market through 1985, a parametric analysis of appropriate short haul aircraft concepts and associated ground systems, and a preliminary overall economic analysis of a simplified total system designed to evaluate the candidate vehicles and select the most promising VTOL and STOL aircraft. Data are also included on the impact of advanced technology on the system, the sensitivity of mission performance to changes in aircraft characteristics and system operations, and identification of key problem areas that may be improved by additional research. The approach, logic, and computer models used are adaptable to other intraurban or interurban areas.

Stout, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

EOS workstation

This final report summarizes the work done from mid-1989 until January 1992 to develop a prototype set of tools for the analysis of EOS-type images. Such images are characterized by great multiplicity and quantity. A single 'snapshot' of EOS-type imagery may contain several hundred component images so that on a particular pixel, one finds multiple gray values. A prototype EOS-sensor, AVIRIS, has 224 gray values at each pixel. The work focused on the ability to utilize very large images and continuously roam through those images, zoom and be able to hold more than one black and white or color image, for example for stereo viewing or for image comparisons. A second focus was the utilization of so-called 'image cubes', where multiple images need to be co-registered and then jointly analyzed, viewed, and manipulated. The target computer platform that was selected was a high-performance graphics superworkstation, Stardent 3000. This particular platform offered many particular graphics tools such as the Application Visualization System (AVS) or Dore, but it missed availability of commercial third-party software for relational data bases, image processing, etc. The project was able to cope with these limitations and a phase-3 activity is currently being negotiated to port the software and enhance it for use with a novel graphics superworkstation to be introduced into the market in the Spring of 1993.

Leberl, Franz↗

NASA NTRS1993

Technology utilization office data base analysis and design

NASA Headquarters is placing a high priority on the transfer of NASA and NASA contractor developed technologies and expertise to the private sector and to other federal, state and local government organizations. The ultimate objective of these efforts is positive economic impact, an improved quality of life, and a more competitive U.S. posture in international markets. The Technology Utilization Office (TUO) currently serves seven states with its technology transfer efforts. Since 1989, the TUO has handled over one-thousand formal requests for NASA related technologies assistance. The technology transfer process requires promoting public awareness of NASA related soliciting requests for assistance, matching technologies to specific needs, assuring appropriate technology transfer, and monitoring and evaluating the process. Each of these activities have one very important aspect in common: the success of each is dissemination of appropriate high quality information. The purpose of the research was to establish the requirements and develop a preliminary design for a database system to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the TUO's technology transfer function. The research was conducted following the traditional systems development life cycle methodology and was supported through the use of modern structured analysis techniques. The next section will describe the research and findings as conducted under the life cycle approach.

Floyd, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Next Space Race is in IT

The next Space Race will be in the economic applications from space and science technology. As NASA science and technology has global application; IT is global, economics is global; surely there are great untapped potentials in finding the IT links of commonality among these three. The Economics of IT will continue to depend upon solution providers creating new methods that capitalize on linking information and information centers with the applications community for business and economic functions.. New and innovative IT vendors whose increased efforts to apply evolving technologies and principles that power the e-business revolution are now seeing the business of government being transformed in a similar fashion. NASA will be a prime example of IT transformation. Potential benefits of e-government are identical to the benefits of e-commerce, which start from value derived from capabilities and assets. The capability and asset wealth of NASA technology and data mass scattered through hundreds of archives will one day provide incredible economic benefit across international and corporate boundaries. Yet the ability to economically benefit from bridging the gap between capability to billable service has yet to find it's first major market. Ultimately the role of government, science, and technology linking to the business world will find greater dependence from this increasingly common ground of IT solutions and technologies. Therefore the future role of the IT industry may be as much administrative as technical, ultimately of critical importance furthering the role of science into application.

Alger, George↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Added Value of SMAP Soil Moisture in Crop Yield Forecasting Over Argentina

Argentina is one of the major producers and exporter of soybeans, corn, and wheat to the world market; therefore, the accurate and timely forecasting of those crops yield is crucial to national crop management and global food security. Previous studies have mainly focused on developing forecasting models for a specific crop type and location using a single source of data (e.g., vegetation indices), thus providing little insight into the forecasting models' performance on different crop types and regions. Besides, these models are based on traditional statistical regression algorithms, while more advanced machine learning approaches have not been explored. This study investigated the estimation of crop yields of three major crops (corn, soybean, and winter wheat) using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), over major growing provinces in Argentina. Our models were trained and evaluated on data from 2015 to 2020, where three remote sensing products (Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), SMAP soil moisture, and MODIS evapotranspiration) were used as predictors. Our results indicated that accurate crop yield forecasts using the developed regression models could be made one to two months before harvest. The MLR and SVM model performance varied among different crop types, where soybean and corn exhibited better predictability compare to the wheat. In most cases, the SVM outperformed the multiple linear regression model due to its ability to capture the nonlinear and complex features of the crop-production process. The forecasted model that combines data from multiple sources outperformed single-source satellite data. The highest accuracy was obtained when the three data sources were all considered in the model development. Results also indicated that the inclusion of SMAP soil moisture improved crop yield forecasting in most provinces, and the most significant improvements occurred in the drier region.

Nazmus Shams Sazib↗

DOE OSTI2020

Building commissioning costs and savings across three decades and 1500 North American buildings

B.V. Building commissioning (Cx) is a process for assuring efficient building operations that can be applied to new construction and existing buildings, resulting in energy and non-energy benefits. Quantifying the benefits of commissioning is challenging, but a 2009 study of 643 commercial buildings provided a solid initial data set to which we added 839 additional buildings for a significantly expanded and updated meta-analysis representing 34.7 million square meters (373 million square feet) of floor area. Since 2009 the commissioning industry has continued to grow, driven by building codes, utility programs, and rising awareness of commissioning benefits. In parallel, building controls have become more sophisticated, and analytics software has emerged to assist with commissioning. We find that delivery mechanism and market segment are key determinants of outcomes, although significant and cost-effective savings are found across the spectrum. Median primary energy savings for Cx projects in existing buildings ranged from 5 percent for those conducted under utility programs, 9 percent for monitoring-based commissioning utility programs (i.e., augmented with submetering and diagnostics), and 14 percent for Cx projects outside of utility programs. Across all project types, median savings ranged from 3 percent for the lodging market segment to 16 percent for public order and safety facilities. Outcomes did not vary significantly by building size or by market segment. Energy savings are rarely estimated for new construction commissioning. We found that the median costs of Cx were lower for the 2018 sample than for the 2009 sample—$\$$2.85 per square meter ($\$$0.26 per square foot) for existing buildings (a 33 percent reduction) and $\$$8.78 per square meter ($\$$0.82 per square foot) for new construction (a reduction of almost 50 percent). The median simple payback time for existing buildings was 1.7 years, with a 25th–75th percentile range of 0.8–3.5 years. Overall, this article summarizes these and other key findings, and discusses how the 2018 data reflects shifts in commissioning practice and outcomes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods

This report assesses the potential for nationwide adoption of thermostat setbacks in appropriate applications. Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses various data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The “baseline” model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology of the baseline model is discussed in the ComStock Reference Documentation. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that cover market-ready technologies and study their mass-adoption impact on the baseline building stock. “Measures” refers to various “what-if” scenarios that can be applied to buildings. The results for the baseline and measure scenario simulations are published in public datasets that provide insights into building stock characteristics, operational behaviors, utility bill impacts, and annual and sub-hourly energy usage by fuel type and end use. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single ComStock measure scenario— Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods—and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public dataset enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use cases (e.g., filter to a specific county or building type).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2000

Hardware Development Process for Human Research Facility Applications

The simple goal of the Human Research Facility (HRF) is to conduct human research experiments on the International Space Station (ISS) astronauts during long-duration missions. This is accomplished by providing integration and operation of the necessary hardware and software capabilities. A typical hardware development flow consists of five stages: functional inputs and requirements definition, market research, design life cycle through hardware delivery, crew training, and mission support. The purpose of this presentation is to guide the audience through the early hardware development process: requirement definition through selecting a development path. Specific HRF equipment is used to illustrate the hardware development paths. The source of hardware requirements is the science community and HRF program. The HRF Science Working Group, consisting of SCientists from various medical disciplines, defined a basic set of equipment with functional requirements. This established the performance requirements of the hardware. HRF program requirements focus on making the hardware safe and operational in a space environment. This includes structural, thermal, human factors, and material requirements. Science and HRF program requirements are defined in a hardware requirements document which includes verification methods. Once the hardware is fabricated, requirements are verified by inspection, test, analysis, or demonstration. All data is compiled and reviewed to certify the hardware for flight. Obviously, the basis for all hardware development activities is requirement definition. Full and complete requirement definition is ideal prior to initiating the hardware development. However, this is generally not the case, but the hardware team typically has functional inputs as a guide. The first step is for engineers to conduct market research based on the functional inputs provided by scientists. CommerCially available products are evaluated against the science requirements as well as modifications needed to meet program requirements. Options are consolidated and the hardware development team reaches a hardware development decision point. Within budget and schedule constraints, the team must decide whether or not to complete the hardware as an in-house, subcontract with vendor, or commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) development. An in-house development indicates NASA personnel or a contractor builds the hardware at a NASA site. A subcontract development is completed off-site by a commercial company. A COTS item is a vendor product available by ordering a specific part number. The team evaluates the pros and cons of each development path. For example, in-bouse developments utilize existing corporate knowledge regarding bow to build equipment for use in space. However, technical expertise would be required to fully understand the medical equipment capabilities, such as for an ultrasound system. It may require additional time and funding to gain the expertise that commercially exists. The major benefit of subcontracting a hardware development is the product is delivered as an end-item and commercial expertise is utilized. On the other hand, NASA has limited control over schedule delays. The final option of COTS or modified COTS equipment is a compromise between in-house and subcontracts. A vendor product may exist that meets all functional requirements but req uires in-house modifications for successful operation in a space environment. The HRF utilizes equipment developed using all of the paths described: inhouse, subcontract, and modified COTS.

Bauer, Liz↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets

Global agricultural commodity markets are highly integrated among major producers. Prices are driven by aggregate supply rather than what happens in individual countries in isolation. Furthermore, estimating the effects of weather-induced shocks on production, trade patterns and prices hence requires a globally representative weather data set. Recently, two data sets that provide daily or hourly records, GMFD and ERA5-Land, became available. Starting with the US, a data rich region, we formally test whether these global data sets are as good as more fine-scaled country-specific data in explaining yields and whether they estimate similar response functions. While GMFD and ERA5-Land have lower predictive skill for US corn and soybeans yields than the fine-scaled PRISM data, they still correctly uncover the underlying non-linear temperature relationship. All specifications using daily temperature extremes under any of the weather data sets outperform models that use a quadratic in average temperature. Correctly capturing the effect of daily extremes has a larger effect than the choice of weather data. In a second step, focusing on Sub Saharan Africa, a data sparse region, we confirm that GMFD and ERA5-Land have superior predictive power to CRU, a global weather data set previously employed for modeling climate effects in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗