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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗
NASA NTRS1975

Hypersonic wing test structure design, analysis, and fabrication

An investigation was conducted to provide the analyses, data, and hardware required to experimentally validate the beaded panel concept and demonstrate its usefulness as a basis for design of a hypersonic research airplane (HRA). Combinations of beaded panel structure, heat shields, channel caps, and corrugated webs for ribs and spars were analyzed for the wing of a specified HRA to operate at Mach 8 with a life span of 150 flights. Detailed analyses, conducted in accordance with established design criteria, included aerodynamic heating and load predictions, transient structural thermal calculations, extensive NASTRAN computer modeling, and structural optimization. After geometry was established for the total wing, part of the wing (85 sq ft) was designed, fabricated, and assembled into a test structure to experimentally verify the structural adequacy of the beaded panel design concept.

Plank, P. P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The global energy footprint of information and communication technology electronics in connected Internet-of-Things devices

Information and communication technology (ICT) has been critical to the emergence of a new Internet-of-Things (IoT) era, as a rapidly increasing number and variety of IoT electronic devices in a wide range of end-use sectors require massive data communication in terms of volume, velocity/speed, and variety. Additionally, semiconductor technology advancements have played a key role in ICT and unlike the past ICT energy footprint analysis, which focused on the final electronic product, an attempt has been made to examine the global energy impacts for the period 2016–2025 based on the market forecasts of three major IoT IC types, i.e., sensors and actuators, connectivity, and processor ICs distributed among four major IoT device components.Total global IoT semiconductor primary energy demand is projected to increase from 2 EJ in 2016 to 35 EJ by 2025, resulting mainly from a substantial projected increase energy needed in the manufacturing of ICs, with growth in the use of sensors and energy-intensive next fab generation manufacturing. Unlike the trend in manufacturing energy, total global operational energy use is projected to decrease significantly with the development of smaller transistor size, low-power devices, and faster wireless data communication technology. Total operational energy is projected to significantly decrease from 118 TWh/year (1,2 EJ/year) to less than 1 TWh/year (0.003 EJ/year) in spite of a significantly higher anticipated growth in its market size during the 2016–2025 forecast period. Its annual share of total primary energy use is projected to reach an insignificant level of 0.01% by the end of 2025, consistent with the past limited electronic product life cycle analyses besides the analysis focus here limited to ICs in IoT devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Measuring the dynamics of structural changes in biological macromolecules from light scattering data

Examining techniques to study the dynamics of structural changes in various molecules has been an ongoing goal of the space program. Knowing how these phenomena occur in biological systems is fundamental to understanding what is necessary for life to remain functional in the space environment. A hierarchy of biological organization is functionally described when cells join together small organic molecules to form larger and more complex molecules. Characterizing the architecture of a particular macromolecule helps determine how that molecule works in the living cell and is basic to the diversity of life. Understanding this arrangement involves the correlation of the structure of macromolecules with their functions. A light scattering photometer was developed for detecting continuous measurement of the angular spectrum of light scattered by dynamically changing systems. The analysis of light scattered by biological macromolecules can be used to determine concentration, size, shape, molecular weight, and structural changes of cells, such as erythrocytes. Some light scattering photometers can collect and store 120 angular scattering spectra per minute, with an angular resolution of 0.2 deg which can be displayed with computer graphics. The light scattering photometer does the following: functions to produce and detect scattered light; determines scatter angles; and collects, stores, and analyzes data.

Johnson, Adriel D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗
NASA NTRS1974

Cyclic fatigue analysis of rocket thrust chambers. Volume 1: OFHC copper chamber low cycle fatigue

A three-dimensional finite element elasto-plastic strain analysis was performed for the throat section of a regeneratively cooled rocket combustion chamber. The analysis employed the RETSCP finite element computer program. The analysis included thermal and pressure loads, and the effects of temperature dependent material properties, to determine the strain range corresponding to the chamber operating cycle. The analysis was performed for chamber configuration and operating conditions corresponding to a hydrogen-oxygen combustion chamber which was fatigue tested to failure. The computed strain range at typical chamber operating conditions was used in conjunction with oxygen-free, high-conductivity (OHFC) copper isothermal fatigue test data to predict chamber low-cycle fatigue life.

Miller, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Flexible materials technology

A survey of all presently defined or proposed large space systems indicated an ever increasing demand for flexible components and materials, primarily as a result of the widening disparity between the stowage space of launch vehicles and the size of advanced systems. Typical flexible components and material requirements were identified on the basis of recurrence and/or functional commonality. This was followed by the evaluation of candidate materials and the search for material capabilities which promise to satisfy the postulated requirements. Particular attention was placed on thin films, and on the requirements of deployable antennas. The assessment of the performance of specific materials was based primarily on the failure mode, derived from a detailed failure analysis. In view of extensive on going work on thermal and environmental degradation effects, prime emphasis was placed on the assessment of the performance loss by meteoroid damage. Quantitative data were generated for tension members and antenna reflector materials. A methodology was developed for the representation of the overall materials performance as related to systems service life. A number of promising new concepts for flexible materials were identified.

Steurer, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Small Stirling dynamic isotope power system for robotic space missions

The design of a multihundred-watt Dynamic Isotope Power System (DIPS), based on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) and small (multihundred-watt) free-piston Stirling engine (FPSE), is being pursued as a potential lower cost alternative to radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG's). The design is targeted at the power needs of future unmanned deep space and planetary surface exploration missions ranging from scientific probes to Space Exploration Initiative precursor missions. Power level for these missions is less than a kilowatt. The incentive for any dynamic system is that it can save fuel and reduce costs and radiological hazard. Unlike DIPS based on turbomachinery conversion (e.g. Brayton), this small Stirling DIPS can be advantageously scaled to multihundred-watt unit size while preserving size and mass competitiveness with RTG's. Stirling conversion extends the competitive range for dynamic systems down to a few hundred watts--a power level not previously considered for dynamic systems. The challenge for Stirling conversion will be to demonstrate reliability and life similar to RTG experience. Since the competitive potential of FPSE as an isotope converter was first identified, work has focused on feasibility of directly integrating GPHS with the Stirling heater head. Thermal modeling of various radiatively coupled heat source/heater head geometries has been performed using data furnished by the developers of FPSE and GPHS. The analysis indicates that, for the 1050 K heater head configurations considered, GPHS fuel clad temperatures remain within acceptable operating limits. Based on these results, preliminary characterizations of multihundred-watt units have been established.

Bents, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Comparison of Venous Return Characteristics with Right Ventricular Mechanics During Cephalic Fluid Shift

For my summer internship project, I organized a pilot study to analyze the effects of a cephalic fluid shift on venous return and right ventricular mechanics to increase right ventricular and venous knowledge. To accomplish this pilot study, I wrote a testing protocol, obtained Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval, completed subject payment forms, lead testing sessions, and analyzed the data. This experiment used -20deg head down tilt (20 HDT) as the ground based simulation for the fluid shift that occurs during spaceflight and compared it to data obtained from the seated and supine positions. Using echocardiography, data was collected for the right ventricle, hepatic vein, internal jugular vein, external jugular vein, and inferior vena cava. Additionally, non-invasive venous pressure measurements, similar to those soon to be done in-orbit, were collected. It was determined that the venous return from below the heard is increased during 20 HDT, which was supported by increased hepatic vein velocities, increased right ventricular inflow, and increased right ventricular strain at 20 HDT relative to seated values. Jugular veins in the neck undergo an increase in pressure and area, but no significant increase in flow, relative to seated values when a subject is tilted 20 HDT. Contrary to the initial expectations based on this jugular flow, there was no significant increase in central venous pressure, as evidenced by no change in Doppler indices for right arterial pressure or inferior vena cava diameter. It is suspected that these differences in pressure are due to the hydrostatic pressure indifference point shifting during tilt; there is a potential for a similar phenomenon with microgravity. This data will hopefully lead to a more in-depth understanding of the response of the body to microgravity and how those relate to the previously mentioned cardiovascular risk of fluid shift that is associated with spaceflight. These results were presented in greater detail to the Cardiovascular Laboratory and the Space Life Science Summer Institute, which helped me prepare for future graduate school research presentations. This internship allowed me to apply and expand the anatomy, physiology, and mechanics information I learned during my undergraduate degree in Biomedical Engineering to the cardiovascular system with the unique zero gravity perspective. Additionally, I was able to develop skills with data analysis techniques involving speckle tracking for ventricular strain and Doppler waveforms for blood velocities. Additionally, I was able to expand upon my previous work in the Cardiovascular Laboratory by writing a literature review on a data analysis project I completed last summer. Ultimately, this internship and venous relationship comparison project provided me with a significant learning experience and additional skill sets, which are applicable to my goals of attaining a Ph.D. in biomedical engineering with a focus on tissue engineering and the cardiovascular system.

Elliott, Morgan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The GeneLab Buffet: A Bioinformatic MATRIX of MANGO and TOAST

The GeneLab data repository provides an unparalleled resource for exploring how spaceflight affects organisms with omics-level insights. However, two major interlinked challenges to capitalizing on the information within these data are their vast breadth and the often-specialized expertise that has been required in the past for their analysis. How do you compare responses within and between studies, especially if you are a non-bioinformatics specialist? This presentation will discuss how Space Biology data can be accessed using software to help provide these data resources to address research questions and generate new hypotheses. The presentation will cover a wide range of the available space life science tools but will focus on TOAST, MANGO, the MATRIX, RadBioApp and other interactive relational databases (https://genelab.nasa.gov/external-vis-apps). These exploration environments have been developed to search the GeneLab data repository for new insights that inform how model organisms respond to microgravity, radiation and other factors associated with spaceflight. The presentation will be interactive, and participants will have the opportunity to ask questions and learn more about the data viz and modeling tools that are available to them.

AstroBotany↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Micro-XRF : Elemental Analysis for In Situ Geology and Astrobiology Exploration

The ability to make close-up measurements of rock chemistry is one of the most fundamental tools for astrobiological exploration of Mars and other rocky bodies of the solar system. When conducting surface-based exploration, lithochemical measurements provide critical data that enable interpretation of the local geology, which in turn is vital for determining habitability and searching for evidence of life. The value of lithochemical measurements for geological interpretations has been repeatedly demonstrated with virtually every landed Mars mission over the past four decades.

Mars↗
DOE OSTI2024

LiAISON (Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) [SWR-24-01]

We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE)7. We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming. Scientific publication available here: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.2c04246

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Acoustic Analysis of Batteries

The project explored development and commercialization of an acoustical approach to battery diagnostics. The technology has significant potential impacts for battery manufacturing and quality assurance, battery management during operation, and could be an enabler for the second-life battery market. Research was focused on inspecting and analyzing the physical condition of batteries using ultrasound. This consisted of designing and building hardware for gathering high-quality acoustic data, as well as using battery charge-discharge cyclers and temperature chambers to operate and age the batteries. Over the course of the 2-year program, we were able to build our first prototypes that are robust enough to be used by industry partners to evaluate our technology. Using the same prototypes, we also showed preliminary evidence that our acoustic inspection method may have distinct advantages over standard electrical methods in terms of detecting differences in the physical quality of battery cells. The project also expanded the participant’s core capabilities beyond time-of-flight acoustic measurements.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Demonstration of Intelligent Container Surveillance Using Stationary and Mobile Camera Platforms

Surveillance of nuclear material storage containers is required to ensure that the container safety boundary is maintained during the service life of the container. As many of these container types are the first and only containment barrier to release protecting the worker, public, and environment, it is imperative to develop robust surveillance tools to characterize container degradation. Machine learning (ML) techniques have matured quickly in the past decade and are slowly becoming a routine application in data analysis. While more popular architectures have been developed with different applications in mind, these can be easily translated to container surveillance requirements. In this study, we developed a ML model based on the Detectron2 framework to identify slip lid containers and common exterior container defects, primarily dents. Commercial-off-the-shelf cameras are combined into a stationary camera array or are mounted to a robotic arm to provide more mobility for positioning needs. Results from the model evaluations on the images indicate that the stationary camera arrays outperform the accuracy of the mobile camera systems for both individual camera and composite image detections. Overall, however, the detection accuracies of the systems fell short of 50% and were less than satisfactory. Future efforts to improve the system involve focusing on a single camera deployable solution that combines a controllable light source that eliminates one of the biggest environmental factors that influence ML model detection performance. Additional training set collection is planned to build a more robust model that enables accurate detection from a wider range of imaging conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗