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At least 793 records · Page 44

(U) LNK3DNT Capability in SENSMG Tested with Transport Correction

The SENSMG multigroup neutron sensitivity code can read materials and geometry from redoin and lnk3dnt files written by the PARTISN multigroup discrete ordinates code or the MCNP6 Monte Carlo code. Reference 5 described an initial version of this capability. Reference 6 introduced two important extensions: 1) Reaction-rate ratios are now allowed as responses with redoin/lnk3dnt inputs; and 2) Sensitivities of reaction-rate ratios to mass densities and interface locations are now calculated (for all problems, not just redoin/lnk3dnt problems). In this report, we document the testing of the redoin/lnk3dnt capability when used with transport correction. PARTISN’s transport corrections are described in Ref. 3, and Refs. 7 and 8 discuss the calculation of cross-section sensitivities when transport corrections are applied. References 7 and 8 verify SENSMG for problems with transport correction using central differences. This report verifies the capability with redoin/lnk3dnt inputs by comparison with regular SENSMG inputs. Unlike Refs. 5 and 6, in this report we use a spherical test problem because the sensitivity of the response with respect to the highest-order scattering is zero in cylinders due to the use of flux moments in the inner products.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Interactive Mesh Generation and Comparison Tools for Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling & Simulation Phase I. Final Report

The promise of computer simulations for nuclear reactor designs is the opportunity to speed up the design process while also improving safety, providing more detail and higher fidelity, reducing cost, minimizing schedule risk, and avoiding many other potential problems; because simulations have the potential to be much less expensive and time-consuming than traditional development – where scale models and physical tests require construction and long lead times – it is possible to consider more alternatives and complete more comprehensive assessments before the design is finalized and constructed. As more design scenarios are studied by simulation, the speed that simulations promise is only available as long as bottlenecks are addressed for these scenarios. A frequent bottleneck is the amount of human labor required to describe the shape of the objects being designed and decompose the shape into simple elements, such as hexahedra, that are small enough to capture the physical phenomena of interest without being so small that even fast computers cannot perform the simulation in a reasonable amount of time. Recently, techniques for creating all-hexahedral decompositions have been developed, but they require some human input. Many simulation codes prefer all-hexahedral decompositions, so we proposed to evaluate the feasibility of these techniques on nuclear reactor geometries to see whether they required too much human input to be commercially viable. Our study concluded that they can be made viable with some additional software tools to reduce the amount of user input required.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Novel use of Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo to Model Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread

In this report, we evaluate a novel method for modeling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In this new approach we leverage methods and algorithms developed for fully-kinetic plasma physics simulations using Particle-In-Cell (PIC) Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) models. This approach then leverages Sandia-unique simulation capabilities, and High-Performance Computer (HPC) resources and expertise in particle-particle interactions using stochastic processes. Our hypothesis is that this approach would provide a more efficient platform with assumptions based on physical data that would then enable the user to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and forecast different phases of infection. This work addresses key scientific questions related to the assumptions this new approach must make to model the interactions of people using algorithms typically used for modeling particle interactions in physics codes (kinetic plasma, gas dynamics). The model developed uses rational/physical inputs while also providing critical insight; the results could serve as inputs to, or alternatives for, existing models. The model work presented was developed over a four-week time frame, thus far showing promising results and many ways in which this model/approach could be improved. This work is aimed at providing a proof-of-concept for this new pandemic modeling approach, which could have an immediate impact on the COVID-19 pandemic modeling, while laying a basis to model future pandemic scenarios in a manner that is timely and efficient. Additionally, this new approach provides new visualization tools to help epidemiologists comprehend and articulate the spread of this and other pandemics as well as a more general tool to determine key parameters needed in order to better predict pandemic modeling in the future. In the report we describe our model for pandemic modeling, apply this model to COVID-19 data for New York City (NYC), assess model sensitivities to different inputs and parameters and , finally, propagate the model forward under different conditions to assess the effects of mitigation and associated timing. Finally, our approach will help understand the role of asymptomatic cases, and could be extended to elucidate the role of recovered individuals in the second round of the infection, which is currently being ignored.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of MCNP, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results analysis methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Broadband Characterization and Circuit Model Development of Transmission-Scale Transformers

This report describes broadband measurements of transmission-scale transformers typical in the electric power grid. This work was performed as part of the EMP Resilient Grid LDRD project at Sandia National Laboratories to generate circuit models that can be used for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) coupling simulations and response predictions. The objective of the work was to obtain characterization data of substation yard equipment across a frequency range relevant to HEMP. Vector network analyzer measurements up to 100 MHz were performed on two power transformers at ABB-Hitachi and a single ITEC potential transformer. Custom cable breakouts were designed to interface with the transformer terminals and provide ground connections to the chassis at the base of the transformer bushings. The three-phase terminals of the power transformers were measured as a common mode impedance using a parallel resistive splitter, and the single-phase terminals of the potential transformer were measured directly. A vector fitting algorithm was used to empirically fit circuit models to the resulting two-port networks and input impedances of the measured objects. Simplified circuit representations of the input impedances were also generated to assess the degree of precision needed for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse response predictions, which were performed in Sandia's XYCE circuit simulator platform. HEMP coupling simulations using the transformer models showed significant reduction in the voltage peak and broadening in the pulse width seen at the power transformer compared to the traveling wave voltage. This indicated the importance of the load condition when defining the coupled insult in an electric power substation. Simplified circuit models showed a similar voltage at the transformer with a smoothed waveform. The presence of potential transformers in the simulation did not significantly change the simulated voltage at the power transformer. Single-port input impedance models were also developed to define load conditions when transfer characteristics were not necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advancing Measurements and Understanding of the Rate and Structure of Atmospheric Warming

The rate and geographic pattern of atmospheric warming are key indicators of historical climate change and play a role in modulating future changes in Earth’s climate. The past and future evolution of atmospheric temperature is simulated using global climate models while observational estimates of past warming are derived from satellite microwave measurements. Individual climate models simulate widely varying rates of past and future atmospheric warming and most model simulations exhibit greater tropospheric (lowest ~10 km of atmosphere) temperature change than satellite observations between 1979 and 2020. This project examined intermodel differences in the pattern of atmospheric warming and how these differences influence climate feedbacks that can amplify or damp the rate of global surface warming. A key result is that climate model representation of the current climate can influence climate feedbacks and the simulation of future changes in climate. Another focus of this project was to analyze how models respond to different input datasets, such as volcanic aerosols or sea surface temperature (in atmosphere-only simulations). We find that different prescribed inputs can affect simulated changes in atmospheric temperature, even though “input uncertainty” is often unconsidered in model-observational comparisons. A final focus of this research project was to consider the influence of natural internal climate variability on satellite era changes in climate. Although the Earth is warming substantially due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the observed warming rate can be modulated by natural variations in the Earth’s climate. We find that natural climate variability has slowed the rate of tropical tropospheric warming, which explains model-satellite differences in the rate of tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Parameterized Neural Ordinary Differential Equations: Applications to Computational Physics Problems

This work proposes an extension of neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) by introducing an additional set of ODE input parameters to NODEs. This extension allows NODEs to learn multiple dynamics specified by the input parameter instances. Our extension is inspired by the concept of parameterized ordinary differential equations, which are widely investigated in computational science and engineering contexts, where characteristics of the governing equations vary over the input parameters. We apply the proposed parameterized NODEs (PNODEs) for learning latent dynamics of complex dynamical processes that arise in computational physics, which is an essential component for enabling rapid numerical simulations for time-critical physics applications. For this, we propose an encoder-decoder-type framework, which models latent dynamics as PNODEs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PNODEs with important benchmark problems from computational physics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Innovations in Building Energy Modeling: Research and Development Opportunities for Emerging Technologies

Building energy modeling (BEM) is a multipurpose tool for building energy efficiency (EE). The U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office (BTO) seeks to expand the use and effectiveness of BEM in the design and operation of commercial and residential buildings with the goal of achieving lasting reductions in total and peak energy use. This report identifies gaps and outlines recommended initiatives to achieve this goal, based on a combination of technical analysis and stakeholder input. In addition to BTO, this report can benefit BEM professionals (architects, mechanical engineers, energy consultants, building auditors, equipment manufacturers, and BEM software vendors) and BEM clients (building owners and operators, EE program administrators, EE service providers, policymakers, and policy and code jurisdictions such as states and cities). This report was developed in two phases. In the first, BTO worked with a team from Navigant Consulting (now Guidehouse) to characterize objectives, opportunities, and current activities; identify gaps and barriers; and define initiatives. To collect input, Navigant conducted telephone interviews and workshops with industry experts. The initial phase produced a draft report, which was released for public review in 2016 and yielded over 400 comments. Based on these comments, BTO compiled a second draft report that addressed many of those comments while acknowledging changes that had occurred both at BTO and in the industry. Unlike the first draft report, the second focused much more heavily on BTO’s own role, portfolio, and activities. BTO is a direct player in the BEM field - it funds the development of several significant software packages that are embedded in commercial products - and transparency about its goals and future plans is requisite. BTO recognizes that a great number of other public and private organizations contribute to the BEM enterprise. With the second draft report, BTO did not attempt to produce a blueprint for the industry as a whole, but rather a working document BTO can use to iteratively solicit stakeholder input and synthesize it into a program. BTO released the second draft report for public review in 2019. The second round of review generated 83 pages of feedback and comments - almost exactly the length of the draft report itself - a significant portion of which was collected and synthesized by IBPSA-USA Advocacy Committee. This final report incorporates this feedback. This report does not address the use of BEM in support of building-based grid services, a recent BTO initiative called Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB). In 2019, BTO published a report that specifically addresses the role of BEM - and other “integration” technologies - in GEB.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) con firm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exempli fied through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Benched: Upgrading and Updating the Los Alamos Benchmark Suite for the 21st Century [Slides]

The presentation begins by stating that most organizations make choices to handle specific things when preparing input files for validation, such as which elemental abundance data to use, how to decompose specific elements, and setting calculation precision. It also discusses the consequences, which include differing calculation results between different organizations for the same case, even when using the same code. This is illustrated by the intercomparison exercise and input files that are prepared by one organization and are not necessarily correct for another. The presentation explains that the Los Alamos Benchmark Suite is a centralized repository of high-quality benchmark models currently under development at LANL. The objectives of the new repository are to remain up to date with the latest ICSBEP revision, to have a formal review and revision process, to (eventually) be an open-source repository, and to provide new tools for improved input and output file generation and review.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

MELCOR 2.2 Benchmarks of Peach Bottom NUREG/CR 7155 Uncertainty Analysis

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) performed a first-of-a-kind uncertainty analysis (UA) of the accident progression, radiological releases, and offsite consequences for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) of an unmitigated long-term station blackout (LTSBO) severe accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The objective of the UA was to evaluate the robustness of the SOARCA deterministic "best estimate results and conclusions documented in NUREG-1935, and to develop insight into the overall sensitivity of the SOARCA results to uncertainty in key modeling inputs. The study was completed in 2015 and documented in NUREG/CR-7155. Since 2015, two other SOARCA UAs were completed for two pressurized water reactor (PWR) plants. The PWR UAs incrementally updated the approach and methodology, including using the latest release of the MELCOR 2.2 computer code. There were also advances made in the state-of-the-art modeling related to NRC efforts using the Peach Bottom model in NUREG-2206, which provided the technical basis for the containment protection and release reduction rulemaking for boiling water reactors with Mark I and Mark II containments. This report documents the input model changes from the NUREG/CR-7155 study and performs a small number of reference calculations to assess the changes of the new computer code and the model input updates. The objective of the work is to verify whether the updated Peach Bottom MELCOR model and updated version of MELCOR support the conclusions formed in the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA by performing these representative calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Using Verified Lifting to Optimize Legacy Stencil Codes (Final Project Report)

This project investigated new techniques for compiling stencil and stencil-like computations. Stencils computations are commonly found in applications such as image processing, physical simulations, image processing, and machine learning. In recent years, many high-performance domain-specific languages (DSLs) have been proposed to optimize stencil computations. To leverage such DSLs, however, existing codes often need to be rewritten. Such rewriting is manual, labor intensive, and error-prone. To alleviate such issues, this project investigated the application of program synthesis and artificial learning techniques to enable stencil computations to automatically leverage new high-performance DSLs. Rather than constructing syntax driven rules, verified lifting uses program synthesis to search for a target code fragment to compile the given input code into. In addition, it also searches for a proof that validates how the found target code fragment preserves the semantics of the original input. Thus, the target code fragment is guaranteed to be semantically equivalent to the input.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NMDQi Thermal-hydraulic Optimization, Analysis, and Scoping Tool (TOAST)

The Thermal-hydraulic Optimization, Analysis, and Scoping Tool (TOAST) is developed to support the thermal-hydraulic aspects for the design of optimal irradiation vehicles for the Nuclear Materials Discovery and Qualification initiative (NMDQi). TOAST is currently a MATLAB-based tool that utilizes a simplified steady-state analytical model where a radial thermal resistance circuit is utilized to account for conduction through up to 2 capsules, a gas gap, a thermal bond, a sample cladding, and a sample, as well as the convection from a water coolant outside the capsules. The geometry is discretized axially along the user-defined height of a basket with a user-defined number of points/nodes, essentially turning TOAST into a semi-2D heat transfer analysis utility for cylindrical irradiation vehicles with practically any configuration, solving for temperatures radially at multiple axial locations. TOAST utilizes a Graphical User Interface (GUI) in-which a user can define the geometrical layout, the materials utilized for each component, the coolant characteristics, and the required solution. The user can define the geometry by inputting the diameters, thicknesses, and heights for each component, whereas the materials are defined via the user-provided constant or variable thermal conductivities. The user can select the coolant's inlet temperature, pressure, and the pressure drop across the height of the problem (which is used to calculate the velocity of the flow). Finally, the user can choose to solve for a sample heat generation rate limit by inputting temperature limits for the sample and capsules or can choose to purely solve for the axial temperature distributions of each component by inputting a pre-selected heat generation rate. Either way, TOAST provides the user with axial temperature distributions of all the components including the coolant, and the heat generation rate limit as well as the maximum outlet coolant temperature. The user can also choose to do one of 6 sensitivity analyses in TOAST. The sensitivity analyses yield plots of the sensitivity of the heat generation rate limit, the maximum coolant temperature, and the pressure limit for the annular components due to perturbations in 1-2 unknown variables based on the selected sensitivity analysis. Benchmarks between computations in TOAST and equivalent 2D axis symmetric ABAQUS models are presented, showing that TOAST results are within less than 3% of ABAQUS results in most cases, and a maximum of 8% difference in some cases. The benchmarks also revealed that this uncertainty is tied to the selection of an appropriate Nusselt number correlation and appropriate thermal conductivities, which the user can do from the GUI. Regardless, TOAST is demonstrated as a computationally efficient, highly accessible, and accurate utility for optimization and scoping s of studies different irradiation vehicles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Validation of energetic particle transport models for time-dependent integrated simulations of burning plasmas (Final ST Report)

The major goal of this project is to deliver a suite of validated energetic particle (EP) modeling tools for time-dependent integrated tokamak simulations (with the code TRANSP) that can be used for modeling plasma discharges featuring a substantial EP content, such as burning plasmas. During FY20, issues were resolved with an energetic particle transport model called TGLF-EP, with improvements made to the TGLF-EP workflow, generation of input files, and interpretation of runs on the NERSC supercomputing cluster. The recipient also gave input on simulations with the code TRANSP to reproduce the reference JET discharge, and assessed the accuracy and uncertainties of the simulated B field, current evolution, thermal plasma profiles, stored energy, etc. Input was also given on interpretation of fast-ion instability calculations and recommendations for modifications to JET afterglow discharge for the upcoming DT campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE Deep Energy Retrofit Cost Survey

A survey was conducted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on deep energy retrofit (DER) market drivers, opportunities, and challenges. The survey was part a research study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to gather information on the costs of DER from home performance contractors and stakeholders. Cost data was gathered from DER projects that use a comprehensive, whole-home approach to drastically reduce energy use and improve performance. DER projects often aim at reducing energy use by 50% or more. In addition, these projects can improve home comfort and potentially benefiting occupant health. Yet, market adoption of DER has been limited. Major limiting factors include complex projects, high costs, perceived risks, extensive disruption, and unfamiliar work scopes to some contractors. In order to better understand what motivates and deters DER projects in today’s market, a survey was conducted to gather this information, and to learn about promising approaches and technologies from the industry perspective. Past surveys on homeowners and home energy performance professionals have studied the motivations and barriers of energy efficiency retrofits. Two surveys of home energy performance professionals were conducted in recent years. The Resources for the Future (RFF) Home Energy Audit and Retrofit Survey was conducted in 2011 by recruiting energy auditors and retrofit installers through members of Efficiency First and Building Performance Institute (BPI) accredited contractors. The survey asked about the business and services that respondents provide, how often homeowners follow their recommendations to retrofit their homes, and the respondents’ opinion on barriers faced by the industry. The survey found that not enough homeowners know about energy audits, but more importantly, it is the high cost of retrofits compared to low energy prices that is responsible for few energy audits and retrofits being completed. The RESNET Deep Retrofit Industry Stakeholder Survey was conducted shortly after launching of the EnergySmart Home Performance Team program. The EnergySmart Team program involves a formal agreement among allied contractors who are engaged in high performance retrofits. Using this allied team approach, teams can pool their expertise and provide each other with customer referrals. The survey asked EnergySmart Team members and outside stakeholders on questions about market and technical barriers in performing home energy retrofits. Survey respondents identified lack of consumer awareness and lack of affordable financing for consumers as the leading market barriers to home energy retrofits. In their written comments, many survey respondents also echoed that the high costs of retrofit compared to low energy prices is a market barrier. Respondents found “certain housing characteristics that prevent effective retrofit” and “energy analysis software inaccuracy or limitations” are the two leading technical barriers. Their choices for technical barriers were reflective of the energy rater/auditor role played by the majority (78%) of the survey respondents. In comparison to past surveys, this work aimed to gather inputs from a broader segment of the home performance industry to identify the opportunities and barriers faced by DERs from all perspectives. The survey asks for project costs to help breakdown the high costs of DERs. This survey is also motivated by a need to better understand the role of DERs in reducing energy use by the residential sectors and meeting climate goals. The survey is designed towards obtaining more substantive inputs from survey respondents by encouraging written comments, rather than setting the goal to reach a large number of respondents. We took this approach because DER is currently still a niche market, so it is more valuable to gather in-depth inputs from individuals who are performing this work rather than getting to the masses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

RAVEN Theory Manual

RAVEN is a software framework able to perform parametric and stochastic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed at providing dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the thermohydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose stochastic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable of communicating with any system code. In fact, the provided Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by input files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating system response and explore input space using various sampling schemes such as Monte Carlo, grid, or Latin hypercube. However, RAVEN strength lies in its system feature discovery capabilities such as: constructing limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, and using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN started in 2012 when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework arose. RAVEN’s principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concepts developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just to identify the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the proximity (or lack thereof) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. Most of the capabilities, implemented having RELAP-7 as a principal focus, are easily deployable to other system codes. For this reason, several side activates have been employed (e.g. RELAP5-3D, any MOOSE-based App, etc.) or are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with several different software. The aim of this document is to provide a set of commented examples that can help the user to become familiar with the RAVEN code usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗