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NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impact Damage Tolerance of Composite Laminates with Through-The-Thickness Stitches

The ability of through-the-thickness stitches to contain damage during a low-velocity impact event and increase the residual strength of stitched panels was investigated in this research. The impact response, spread of interlaminar delaminations, dent depth, surface damage, and static residual strength after impact were studied for carbon-epoxy specimens fabricated from HTS40 TohoTenax standard modulus fibers, stitched together with Vectran 1200 denier thread and infused with API 1078 resin after through-the-thickness stitching. Three different stitch patterns were used to explore the ability to arrest impact damage during and after impact. Simply supported boundary conditions were maintained during the impact testing. Non-destructive evaluations were performed using ultrasonic C-scans and X-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging to determine the shape, size, and location of delaminations. Results indicate that while the dynamic response during the impact event was almost the same for the unstitched specimens and all stitch patterns considered, the extent of delamination and the compression strength after impact varied greatly. For both the 60 J and 80 J impact energies, the delamination area was significantly less for the stitched specimens than for the unstitched specimens, but the range of delamination areas among the stitch patterns was much larger for the lower impact energy than for the greater impact energy. Similarly, while the presence of stitching influenced the compression after impact strength, the strength values for all stitch patterns were very similar. These results are a step toward quantifying the influence of through-the-thickness stitching.

Ranatunga, Vipul↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Zircon (U-TH)/He Impact Crater Thermochronometry and the Effects of Shock Microstructures on Helium Diffusion Kinetics

Accurate age determinations of hyper-velocity impact and cratering events remains difficult and often controversial, while less than half of all known impact craters are regarded as accurately and precisely dated. Besides 40Ar/39Ar and U-Pb methods, zircon (U-Th)/He dating of impactites is a burgeoning technique to date large- to medium-sized impact structures. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages can be fully reset in minutes at 1000°C, T commonly reached in and directly adjacent to impact melt domains, whereas complete resetting of zircon (U-Th)/He at <300°C, which might be encountered near the crater margins or persist in post-impact hydrothermal systems, may take >103-4 years. However, there is a critical need to test the reliability of (U-Th)/He impact dating in shock deformed zircon, and to quantify helium diffusion kinetics in well-characterized grains with a broad spectrum of shock-induced defect substructures. For this purpose, we investigated samples from two impact structures, the 66 Ma Chicxulub multi-ring basin and the 15 Ma Ries complex crater, to compare zircon diffusion kinetics from impact structures with varying parameters, including size, age, and hydrothermal system longevity. Shock microstructures were characterized by backscattered-electron (BSE) imaging prior to determination of diffusion step-heating fractional release experiments using light-bulb furnace with prograde and retrograde incrementally 10°C steps from 300°C to 600°C. We find that zircon with low-level shock microstructures exhibit no significant deviation from helium diffusion kinetics of undamaged zircon. In contrast, zircon grains with planar deformation features and granular textures classified by SEM are characterized by a dramatic decrease in helium retentivity, similar to radiation damage, due to the reduction in the effective domain size and the introduction of fast diffusion pathways. This likely renders shocked grains more susceptible to impact-induced hydrothermal resetting. Hence, characterization of impact microstructure is critical for determining accurate impact ages, but also offers the opportunity to determine the magnitude and duration of post-impact hydrothermal circulation.

Catherine Ross↗
DOE OSTI2017

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly non-environmental.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Determining significance in social impact assessments (SIA) by applying both technical and participatory approaches: Methodology development and application in a case study of the concentrated solar power plant NOOR{sub O} I in Morocco

One of the main objectives of impact assessments is to identify potentially significant impacts. However, determining this significance has received very limited attention as a procedural step in social impact assessments. Consequently, only limited research and documentation exists on approaches, survey tools and evaluation methods, especially with regard to participatory approaches and combined participatory-technical approaches. This study aims to address this research gap by developing and applying a joined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation. The approach is applied in a case study which analysed the livelihood impacts of the large-scale concentrated solar power plant NOOR{sub O} I in Ouarzazate, Morocco. The analysis shows that although different approaches and significance criteria must be applied when involving both local stakeholders and experts, the linked analysis offers more robust results and an improved basis for decision-making. Furthermore, it was observed in the case study that impacts affecting the social, cultural and political spheres were more often considered significant than impacts affecting the physical and material livelihood dimensions. Regarding sustainability assessments of large-scale renewable energy plants, these findings underline the importance (as for other large-scale infrastructure developments) of placing greater emphasis on the inclusion of social aspects in impact assessments. - Highlights: •Significance evaluation in social impact assessments lacks participatory aspects. •Combined participatory and technical impact significance evaluation developed •Application in a case study to analyse the livelihood impacts of a CSP plant •Involvement of local stakeholders and technical experts results in robust findings. •Social, cultural and political issues are often more relevant than material aspects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Insulation materials for commercial buildings in North America: An assessment of lifetime energy and environmental impacts

In the United States, commercial buildings accounted for about 19 percent of the total primary energy consumption in 2012. Further, 29 percent of the site energy in commercial buildings was consumed for space heating and cooling. Applying insulation materials to building envelopes is an effective way of reducing energy consumption for heating and cooling, and limiting the negative environmental impacts from the buildings sector. While insulation materials have a net positive impact on the environment due to reduced energy consumption, they also have some negative impacts associated with their 'embodied energy'. The total lifetime environmental impacts of insulation materials are a summation of: (1) direct impacts due to their embodied energy, and (2) indirect or impacts avoided due to the reduced building energy consumption. Here, assessments of the lifetime environmental impacts of selected insulation materials are presented. Direct and indirect environmental impact factors were estimated for the cradle-to-grave insulation life cycle stages. Impact factors were calculated for two categories: primary energy consumption and global warming potential. The direct impact factors were calculated using data from existing literature and a life cycle assessment software. The indirect impact factors were calculated through simulations of a set of standard whole-building models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping and Characterizing the Visual Impacts of the Existing US Wind Turbine Fleet

Visual impacts of wind turbines have been a persistent concern for wind energy development in the United States (US) for decades and remain a major source of project delays and cancellations. Assessments of visual impacts are frequently performed at a local scale for individual projects, but a comprehensive understanding of broader geographic patterns in visual impacts across the US is lacking. This paper presents a visual impact assessment of the existing land-based wind turbine fleet of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The assessment combines geographic information systems and 3D simulation methods to account for key factors driving the visual magnitude of impacts from the installed turbines. The results indicate that, despite the deployment of approximately 70,000 turbines and over 144 gigawatts of land-based wind in the CONUS, the visual impacts are very small when measured as a proportion of land area, population, and sensitive visual resources. Nonetheless, visual impacts are not evenly distributed: people experience a concentrated share in a small number of natural settings, primarily including plains, prairies, and deserts. Finally, we find that although increased density of wind development consistently leads to visual impacts across a greater proportion of land, it does not always lead to impacts to a greater share of the population. These findings suggest that visual impacts from wind energy are generally well-mitigated across the CONUS to date but also highlight the need for a deeper understanding of landscape sensitivity and individual perceptions of wind turbines in the most heavily impacted natural settings.

3D simulation↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating impacts of development and conservation projects using sustainability indicators: Opportunities and challenges

There has been an increased interest in using sustainability indicators for evaluating the impacts of development and conservation projects. Past and recent experiences have shown that sustainability indicators can be powerful tools for measuring the outcomes of various interventions, when used appropriately and adequately. Currently, there is a range of methods for applying sustainability indicators for project impact evaluation at the environment–development interface. At the same time, a number of challenges persist which have implication for impact evaluation processes especially in developing countries. We highlight some key and recurrent challenges, using three cases from Kenya, Indonesia and Brazil. In this study, we have conducted a comparative analysis across multiple projects from the three countries, which aimed to conserve biodiversity and improve livelihoods. The assessments of these projects were designed to evaluate their positive, negative, short-term, long term, direct and indirect impacts. We have identified a set of commonly used sustainability indicators to evaluate the projects and have discussed opportunities and challenges associated with their application. Our analysis shows that impact evaluation processes present good opportunities for applying sustainability indicators. On the other hand, we find that project proponents (e.g. managers, evaluators, donors/funders) face challenges with establishing full impacts of interventions and that these are rooted in monitoring and evaluation processes, lack of evidence-based impacts, difficulties of measuring certain outcomes and concerns over scale of a range of impacts. We outline key lessons learnt from the multiple cases and propose ways to overcome common problems. Results from our analysis demonstrate practical experiences of applying sustainability indicators in developing countries context where there are different prevailing socio-economic, cultural and environmental conditions. The knowledge derived from this study may therefore be useful to a wider range of audience who are concerned with sustainable integration of development and environmental conservation. - Highlights: • Sustainability indicators are increasingly used for evaluating project impacts. • Lessons learnt are based on case studies from Africa, Asia and South America. • Similar challenges when assessing impacts of development and conservation projects • Need for pragmatic solutions to overcome challenges when assessing project impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A comparative method of air emission impact assessment for building construction activities

Highlights: • Impact assessment comparisons for various construction activities are presented. • Impacts of activities are compared from global, regional and local perspectives. • Excavation related activities have the highest POFP impact contributions at local level. • Material related activities have the highest GWP contribution. - Abstract: Different construction activities may indicate distinct environmental impacts due to their uniqueness. Ability to assess and compare the environmental impacts from different construction activities can aid the process of minimising emissions at different building construction processes. The study presents a comparative impact assessment methodology to evaluate environmental impacts at different activities during the building construction stage. Significant impact related construction activities for five major impact categories namely global warming potential (GWP 100), acidification potential (AP), Eutrophication potential (EP), Photochemical oxidation formation potential (POFP) and Human toxicity potential (HTP) are compared from the global, regional and local perspectives. A case study of a residential building in Australia is used to demonstrate the application of the functions of the developed method. The results of the case study indicated that the method can be effectively used to compare environmental impacts of different construction activities at different geographical perspectives considered. The method can be used by designers and contractors in comparing impacts of various construction activities to identify the most emission effective construction processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens

1. We investigated the impacts of wind power development on the demography, movements, and population genetics of Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) at three sites in northcentral and eastern Kansas for a 7-year period. Only 1 of 3 sites was developed for wind power, the 201MW Meridan Way Wind Power Facility at the Smoky Hills site in northcentral Kansas. Our project report is based on population data for prairie chickens collected during a 2-year preconstruction period (2007-2008), a 3-year postconstruction period (2009-2011) and one final year of lek surveys (2012). Where relevant, we present preconstruction data from our field studies at reference sites in the northern Flint Hills (2007-2009) and southern Flint Hills (2006-2008). 2. We addressed seven potential impacts of wind power development on prairie chickens: lek attendance, mating behavior, use of breeding habitat, fecundity rates, natal dispersal, survival rates, and population numbers. Our analyses of pre- and postconstruction impacts are based on an analysis of covariance design where we modeled population performance as a function of treatment period, distance to eventual or actual site of the nearest wind turbine, and the interaction of these factors. Our demographic and movement data from the 6-year study period at the Smoky Hills site included 23 lek sites, 251 radio-marked females monitored for 287 bird-years, and 264 nesting attempts. Our genetic data were based on genotypes of 1,760 females, males and chicks that were screened with a set of 27 microsatellite markers that were optimized in the lab. 3. In our analyses of lek attendance, the annual probability of lek persistence during the preconstruction period was ~0.9. During the postconstruction period, distance to nearest turbine did not have a significant effect on the probability of lek persistence. However, the probability of lek persistence increased from 0.69 at 0 m to 0.89 at 30 km from turbines, and most abandoned lek sites were located <5 km from turbines. Probability of lek persistence was significantly related to habitat and number of males. Leks had a higher probability of persistence in grasslands than agricultural fields, and increased from ~0.2 for leks of 5 males, to >0.9 for leks of 10 or more males. Large leks in grasslands should be a higher priority for conservation. Overall, wind power development had a weak effect on the annual probability of lek persistence. 3. We used molecular methods to investigate the mating behavior of prairie chickens. The prevailing view for lek-mating grouse is that females mate once to fertilize the clutch and that conspecific nest parasitism is rare. We found evidence that females mate multiple times to fertilize the clutch (8-18% of broods, 4-38% of chicks) and will parasitize nests of other females during egg-laying (~17% of nests). Variable rates of parentage were highest in the fragmented landscapes at the Smoky Hills field site, and were lower at the Flint Hills field site. Comparisons of the pre- and postconstruction periods showed that wind energy development did not affect the mating behaviors of prairie chickens. 4. We examined use of breeding habitats by radio-marked females and conducted separate analyses for nest site selection, and movements of females not attending nests or broods. The landscape was a mix of native prairie and agricultural habitats, and nest site selection was not random because females preferred to nest in grasslands. Nests tended to be closer to turbines during the postconstruction period and there was no evidence of behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during nest site selection. Movements of females not attending nests or broods showed that females crossed the site of the wind power development at higher rates during the preconstruction period (20%) than the postconstruction period (11%), and that movements away from turbines were more frequent during the postconstruction period. Thus, wind power development appears to affect movements in breeding habitats but not nest site selection of female prairie chickens during the breeding season. 5. We tested the effects of wind power development on five components of female fecundity: timing of clutch initiation, clutch size of first nests and renests, nest survival, and hatchability of eggs. Average date of clutch initiation was 26 April, clutch size was 12.7 and 10.6 eggs for first nests and renests, probability of nest survival was low at 0.18, but egg hatchability was high at 0.79. Wind power development had no impact on reproductive effort or nesting success, and all five components of fecundity were not related to treatment period or distance to turbine. Nest survival was the main factor limiting reproductive output of female prairie chickens and most losses were due to predation. Daily nest survival was strongly related to vegetative cover at the nest. Changes to rangeland management practices that would double nesting cover from 2.5 to 5 dm would triple the probability of nest survival from 0.17 to 0.52. Grass and forb cover had weak positive effects on daily nest survival whereas shrub cover, proximity to woodlands, and recent rainfall had negative effects. Reproductive performance of prairie chickens is low in managed rangelands in northcentral Kansas and efforts to improve range conditions and reduce predator activity would aid recovery of prairie chicken populations. 6. We used molecular methods to investigate patterns of natal dispersal in prairie chickens. High rates of nest failure limited the number of young that we could sample. Direct detections of natal dispersal were limited because survival of newly hatched chicks to become adults were low and because we were unable to detect dispersal distances outside of our study area. Direct observations of natal movements were limited and were inadequate to make conclusions about the potential impacts of wind energy development on natal dispersal. Spatial correlograms of genetic distance among males at leks were a more sensitive measure of population structure, and indicated a weak effect of wind energy development on the spatial genetic structure of prairie chickens. 7. We tested the effects of wind power development on female survival with time-to-event models, and on residual body mass of males with analyses of covariance. Distance to turbine and the interaction of distance and treatment period had no effect on female survival. Contrary to predictions of negative impacts of wind power development, the probability of female was lowest during the preconstruction period (0.274) and increased significantly during the postconstruction period (0.543). Inspection of hazard functions indicated that the difference in annual survival could be attributed to a higher risk of mortality during the lekking season in the preconstruction period. We suggest that wind power development may have improved ecological conditions for prairie chickens by disrupting the foraging behavior of diurnal raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek sites. In support of this idea, raptor kills tended to be farther from turbines during the postconstruction period whereas mammalian kills were closer. Analyses of the major causes of mortality did not support our hypothesis because the odds of raptor predation were greater after development was completed. Most mortality losses of radio-marked females were due to predation, and losses to collision mortality or harvest were rare events. Low rates of natural mortality during fall and winter imply that harvest is likely to be additive mortality in prairie chickens. Wind energy development reduced the residual body mass of male Greater Prairie-Chickens at lek sites near turbines. Low values of residual body mass could have a negative impact on individual survival or fecundity rates, or may be related to predation risk and flight performance of males displaying at open lek sites. 8. We tested for impacts of wind power development on population numbers of prairie chickens with monitoring of male numbers at leks, and with genetic measures of population structure. Lek counts indicated that wind power development did not affect the population size of prairie chickens. Peak counts of males at leks were recorded the first year after construction was completed and the highest rates of population change were observed during the interval when the wind power facility was constructed. Population numbers of prairie chickens near and distant from turbines appeared to covary in parallel, probably because bird numbers were linked by dispersal movements. Estimates of population viability based on genetic diversity, effective population size and rates of population exchange did not show annual changes and were unaffected by wind development during our study. Estimates of relatedness among males at the same and different leks suggested that wind power development has either reduced dispersal rates or changed settlement patterns, leading to higher rates of relatedness among males displaying at the same lek site. 9. Greater Prairie-Chickens were not strongly affected by wind power development in Kansas. Negative impacts of wind power development included a trend for reductions in lek persistence near turbines, behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during their breeding season movements, and changes in the genetic structure of males at leks that were consistent with reduced dispersal or recruitment rates. We found no impacts of wind power development on nest site selection, female reproductive effort or nesting success, or population numbers. Positive impacts of wind power development included an increase in female survival rates. We hypothesized that the unexpected increase in female survival was related to changes in trophic interactions and disruption of the foraging behavior of raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek site. 10. Research funding for this project included a grant from the 20% Wind by 2030 Program of the Department of Energy (this final report), and grants from the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism, the National Fish and Wildlife Federation, and initial funding from the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative. Research products from data collected during the preconstruction period have included five peer-reviewed research articles and two PhD dissertations at Kansas State University. Additional manuscripts are in review for possible publication in 2013-2014.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Experimental Measurement of Frozen and Partially Melted Water Droplet Impact Dynamics

High-speed video of single frozen water droplets impacting a surface was acquired. The droplets diameter ranged from 0.4 mm to 0.9 mm and impacted at velocities ranging from 140 m/sec to 309 m/sec. The techniques used to freeze the droplets and launch the particles against the surfaces is described in this paper. High-speed video was used to quantify the ice accretion area to the surface for varying impact angles (30 deg, 45 deg, 60 deg), impacting velocities, and break-up angles. An oxygen /acetylene cross-flow flame used to ensure partial melting of the traveling frozen droplets is also discussed. A linear relationship between impact angle and ice accretion is identified for fully frozen particles. The slope of the relationship is affected by impact speed. Perpendicular impacts, i.e. 30 deg, exhibited small differences in ice accretion for varying velocities, while an increase of 60% in velocity from 161 m/sec to 259 m/sec, provided an increase on ice accretion area of 96% at an impact angle of 60 deg. The increase accretion area highlights the importance of impact angle and velocity on the ice accretion process of ice crystals. It was experimentally observed that partial melting was not required for ice accretion at the tested velocities when high impact angles were used (45 and 60 deg). Partially melted droplets doubled the ice accretion areas on the impacting surface when 0.0023 Joules were applied to the particle. The partially melted state of the droplets and a method to quantify the percentage increase in ice accretion area is also described in the paper.

Impact Dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2011

Economic Impacts of Wind Turbine Development in U.S. Counties

The objective is to address the research question using post-project construction, county-level data, and econometric evaluation methods. Wind energy is expanding rapidly in the United States: Over the last 4 years, wind power has contributed approximately 35 percent of all new electric power capacity. Wind power plants are often developed in rural areas where local economic development impacts from the installation are projected, including land lease and property tax payments and employment growth during plant construction and operation. Wind energy represented 2.3 percent of the U.S. electricity supply in 2010, but studies show that penetrations of at least 20 percent are feasible. Several studies have used input-output models to predict direct, indirect, and induced economic development impacts. These analyses have often been completed prior to project construction. Available studies have not yet investigated the economic development impacts of wind development at the county level using post-construction econometric evaluation methods. Analysis of county-level impacts is limited. However, previous county-level analyses have estimated operation-period employment at 0.2 to 0.6 jobs per megawatt (MW) of power installed and earnings at $9,000/MW to $50,000/MW. We find statistically significant evidence of positive impacts of wind development on county-level per capita income from the OLS and spatial lag models when they are applied to the full set of wind and non-wind counties. The total impact on annual per capita income of wind turbine development (measured in MW per capita) in the spatial lag model was $21,604 per MW. This estimate is within the range of values estimated in the literature using input-output models. OLS results for the wind-only counties and matched samples are similar in magnitude, but are not statistically significant at the 10-percent level. We find a statistically significant impact of wind development on employment in the OLS analysis for wind counties only, but not in the other models. Our estimates of employment impacts are not precise enough to assess the validity of employment impacts from input-output models applied in advance of wind energy project construction. The analysis provides empirical evidence of positive income effects at the county level from cumulative wind turbine development, consistent with the range of impacts estimated using input-output models. Employment impacts are less clear.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as an umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact assessment. • Our methodology allows distinguishing corporate impacts from contextual changes. • Promptly observing context changes and impacts enables companies to react nimbly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Theory and experiments characterizing hypervelocity impact plasmas on biased spacecraft materials

Space weather including solar activity and background plasma sets up spacecraft conditions that can magnify the threat from hypervelocity impacts. Hypervelocity impactors include both meteoroids, traveling between 11 and 72 km/s, and orbital debris, with typical impact speeds of 10 km/s. When an impactor encounters a spacecraft, its kinetic energy is converted over a very short timescale into energy of vaporization and ionization, resulting in a small, dense plasma. This plasma can produce radio frequency (RF) emission, causing electrical anomalies within the spacecraft. In order to study this phenomenon, we conducted ground-based experiments to study hypervelocity impact plasmas using a Van de Graaff dust accelerator. Iron projectiles ranging from 10{sup -16} g to 10{sup -11} g were fired at speeds of up to 70 km/s into a variety of target materials under a range of surface charging conditions representative of space weather effects. Impact plasmas associated with bare metal targets as well as spacecraft materials were studied. Plasma expansion models were developed to determine the composition and temperature of the impact plasma, shedding light on the plasma dynamics that can lead to spacecraft electrical anomalies. The dependence of these plasma properties on target material, impact speed, and surface charge was analyzed. Our work includes three major results. First, the initial temperature of the impact plasma is at least an order of magnitude lower than previously reported, providing conditions more favorable for sustained RF emission. Second, the composition of impact plasmas from glass targets, unlike that of impact plasmas from tungsten, has low dependence on impact speed, indicating a charge production mechanism that is significant down to orbital debris speeds. Finally, negative ion formation has a strong dependence on target material. These new results can inform the design and operation of spacecraft in order to mitigate future impact-related space weather anomalies and failures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simulating plasma production from hypervelocity impacts

Hypervelocity particles, such as meteoroids and space debris, routinely impact spacecraft and are energetic enough to vaporize and ionize themselves and as well as a portion of the target material. The resulting plasma rapidly expands into the surrounding vacuum. While plasma measurements from hypervelocity impacts have been made using ground-based technologies such as light gas guns and Van de Graaff dust accelerators, some of the basic plasma properties vary significantly between experiments. There have been both ground-based and in-situ measurements of radio frequency (RF) emission from hypervelocity impacts, but the physical mechanism responsible and the possible connection to the impact-produced plasma are not well understood. Under certain conditions, the impact-produced plasma can have deleterious effects on spacecraft electronics by providing a new current path, triggering an electrostatic discharge, causing electromagnetic interference, or generating an electromagnetic pulse. Multi-physics simulations of plasma production from hypervelocity impacts are presented. These simulations incorporate elasticity and plasticity of the solid target, phase change and plasma formation, and non-ideal plasma physics due to the high density and low temperature of the plasma. A smoothed particle hydrodynamics method is used to perform a continuum dynamics simulation with these additional physics. By examining a series of hypervelocity impacts, basic properties of the impact produced plasma plume (density, temperature, expansion speed, charge state) are determined for impactor speeds between 10 and 72 km/s. For a large range of higher impact speeds (30–72 km/s), we find the temperature is unvarying at 2.5 eV. We also find that the plasma plume is weakly ionized for impact speeds less than 14 km/s and fully ionized for impact speeds greater than 20 km/s, independent of impactor mass. This is the same velocity threshold for the detection of RF emission in recent Van de Graaff experiments, suggesting that the RF is correlated to the formation of fully ionized plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Low Velocity Sphere Impact of a Borosilicate Glass

This report summarizes US Army TARDEC sponsored work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) involving low velocity (< 30 m/s or < 65 mph) ball impact testing of Borofloat borosilicate glass, and is a follow-up to a similar study completed by the authors on Starphire soda-lime silicate glass last year. The response of the borosilicate glass to impact testing at different angles was also studied. The Borofloat glass was supplied by the US Army Research Laboratory and its tin-side was impacted or indented. The intent was to better understand low velocity impact response in the Borofloat. Seven sphere materials were used whose densities bracket that of rock: borosilicate glass, soda-lime silicate glass, silicon nitride, aluminum oxide, zirconium oxide, carbon steel, and a chrome steel. A gas gun or a ball-drop test setup was used to produce controlled velocity delivery of the spheres against the glass tile targets. Minimum impact velocities to initiate fracture in the Borofloat were measured and interpreted in context to the kinetic energy of impact and the elastic property mismatch between the seven sphere-Borofloat-target combinations. The primary observations from this low velocity (< 30 m/s or < 65 mph) testing were: (1) BS glass responded similarly to soda-lime silicate glass when spherically indented but quite differently under sphere impact conditions; (2) Frictional effects contributed to fracture initiation in BS glass when it spherically indented. This effect was also observed with soda-lime silicate glass; (3) The force necessary to initiate fracture in BS glass under spherical impact decreases with increasing elastic modulus of the sphere material. This trend is opposite to what was observed with soda-lime silicate glass. Friction cannot explain this trend and the authors do not have a legitimate explanation for it yet; (4) The force necessary to initiate contact-induced fracture is higher under dynamic conditions than under quasi-static conditions. That difference decreases with increasing elastic modulus mismatch between the sphere material and borosilicate This trend was opposite in soda-lime silicate glass; (5) Fracture in borosilicate glass occurs at lower velocities (i.e., easier) at 24° than at 0° (orthogonal) and 46° of impact for the same probability of failure. Though not analyzed yet, this suggests that a convolution of kinetic energy and friction is contributing to that trend; (6) There is a subtle indication there was intra-tile differences in spherical indentation RCIF. This likely is not a material property nor exclusive to borosilicate glass, rather, it is a statistical response of a combination of local, surface-located flaw and imposed tensile stress. Understanding of the surface flaw population and flaw positioning can likely enable prediction of spherical indentation RCIF; and (7) Contact-induced fracture did not initiate in the Borofloat BS for impact kinetic energies up to ~ 20 mJ. For kinetic energies between ~ 20-150 mJ, fracture sometimes initiated. Contact-induced fracture would always occur for impact energies > 150 mJ. The energy values, and their boundaries, were much lower for BS glass than they were for soda-lime silicate glass.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Determination of the Impact of Glycolate on ARP and MCU Operations

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is evaluating an alternate flowsheet for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) using glycolic acid as a reductant. An important aspect of the development of the glycolic acid flowsheet is determining if glycolate has any detrimental downstream impacts. Testing was performed to determine if there is any impact to the strontium and actinide sorption by monosodium titanate (MST) and modified monosodium titanate (mMST) or if there is an impact to the cesium removal, phase separation, or coalescer performance at the Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Processing Unit (MCU). Sorption testing was performed using both MST and modified MST (mMST) in the presence of 5000 and 10,000 ppm (mass basis) glycolate. 10,000 ppm is the estimated bounding concentration expected in the DWPF recycle stream based on DWPF melter flammable gas model results. The presence of glycolate was found to slow the removal of Sr and Pu by MST, while increasing the removal rate of Np. Results indicate that the impact is a kinetic effect, and the overall capacity of the material is not affected. There was no measurable effect on U removal at either glycolate concentration. The slower removal rates for Sr and Pu at 5000 and 10,000 ppm glycolate could result in lower DF values for these sorbates in ARP based on the current (12 hours) and proposed (8 hours) contact times. For the highest glycolate concentration used in this study, the percentage of Sr removed at 6 hours of contact decreased by 1% and the percentage of Pu removed decreased by nearly 7%. The impact may prove insignificant if the concentration of glycolate that is returned to the tank farm is well below the concentrations tested in this study. The presence of glycolate also decreased the removal rates for all three sorbates (Sr, Pu, and Np) by mMST. Similar to MST, the results for mMST indicate that the impact is a kinetic effect, and the overall capacity of the material is not affected. The presence of glycolate did not change the lack of affinity of mMST for U. Pre-contacting the MST or mMST with glycolate did not have a significant effect on the performance of the materials when compared to tests having the same concentration of glycolate present in the simulant. These findings suggest that the glycolate is likely influencing removal by sorbate complexation and not by depositing onto or forming a film on the surface of the MST solids. Since the DF values are salt batch dependent, it is not possible to a priori quantify the impacts of glycolate on future processing campaigns. However, we recommend that the impacts of glycolate be evaluated during each salt batch qualification when a final processing concentration is defined, and recommendations can then be made on how to mitigate negative impacts, if needed. Impacts to the performance of the MST or mMST could be mitigated by increasing contact time or increasing sorbent concentrations. Testing was performed to determine if there is an impact to the cesium removal at Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Processing Unit (MCU). An Extraction-Scrub-Strip (ESS) test routine was used to simulate cesium removal at the MCU. For this, SRNL performed three ESS tests, using the same basic aqueous waste simulant and solvent. For one test, SRNL added 5000 ppm (mass basis) of glycolate and added 10,000 ppm of glycolate to a second test. A control test contained no glycolate. The results of all three tests were virtually identical for all the extraction, scrub and strip tests.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1990

Development of impact design methods for ceramic gas turbine components

Impact damage prediction methods are being developed to aid in the design of ceramic gas turbine engine components with improved impact resistance. Two impact damage modes were characterized: local, near the impact site, and structural, usually fast fracture away from the impact site. Local damage to Si3N4 impacted by Si3N4 spherical projectiles consists of ring and/or radial cracks around the impact point. In a mechanistic model being developed, impact damage is characterized as microcrack nucleation and propagation. The extent of damage is measured as volume fraction of microcracks. Model capability is demonstrated by simulating late impact tests. Structural failure is caused by tensile stress during impact exceeding material strength. The EPIC3 code was successfully used to predict blade structural failures in different size particle impacts on radial and axial blades.

Song, J.↗