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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A physics-based ensemble machine-learning approach to identifying a relationship between lightning indices and binary lightning hazard

To convert lightning indices generated by numerical weather prediction experiments into binary lightning hazard, a machine-learning tool was developed. This tool, consisting of parallel multilayer perceptron classifiers, was trained on an ensemble of planetary boundary layer schemes and microphysics parameterizations that generated four different lightning indices over 1 week. In a subsequent week, the multi-physics ensemble was applied and the machine-learning tool was used to evaluate the accuracy. Unintuitively, the machine-learning tool performed better on the testing dataset than the training dataset. Much of the error may be attributed to mischaracterizing the convection. The combination of the machine learning model and simulations could not differentiate between cloud-to-cloud lightning and cloud-to-ground lightning, despite being trained on cloud-to-ground lightning. It was found that the simulation most representative of the local operational model was the most accurate simulation tested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of intracoronary hemodynamics identifies perturbations in vorticity

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is highly prevalent and associated with adverse events. Challenges have emerged in the treatment of intermediate coronary artery stenoses. These lesions are often interrogated with fractional flow reserve (FFR) testing to determine if a stenosis is likely to be causative for ischemia in a cardiac territory. This invasive test requires insertion of a pressure wire into a coronary vessel. Recently computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been used to noninvasively assess fractional flow reserve in vessels reconstructed from medical imaging data. However, many of these simulations are unable to provide additional information about intravascular hemodynamics, including velocity, endothelial shear stress (ESS), and vorticity. We hypothesized that vorticity, which has demonstrated utility in the assessment of ventricular and aortic diseases, would also be an important hemodynamic factor in CAD. Three-dimensional (3D), patient-specific coronary artery geometries that included all vessels >1 mm in diameter were created from angiography data obtained from 10 patients who underwent diagnostic angiography and FFR testing (n = 9). A massively parallel CFD solver (HARVEY) was used to calculate coronary hemodynamic parameters including pressure, velocity, ESS, and vorticity. These simulations were validated by comparing velocity flow fields from simulation to both velocities derived from in vitro particle image velocimetry and to invasively acquired pressure wire-based data from clinical testing. There was strong agreement between findings from CFD simulations and particle image velocimetry experimental testing (p < 0.01). CFD-FFR was also highly correlated with invasively measured FFR (ρ = 0.77, p = 0.01) with an average error of 5.9 ± 0.1%. CFD-FFR also had a strong inverse correlation with the vorticity (ρ = -0.86, p = 0.001). Simulations to determine the effect of the coronary stenosis on intravascular hemodynamics demonstrated significant differences in velocity and vorticity (both p < 0.05). Further evaluation of an angiographically normal appearing non-FFR coronary vessel in patients with CAD also demonstrated differences in vorticity when compared with FFR vessels (p < 0.05). The use of highly accurate 3D CFD-derived intravascular hemodynamics provides additional information beyond pressure measurements that can be used to calculate FFR. Vorticity is one parameter that is modified by a coronary stenosis and appears to be abnormal in angiographically normal vessels in patients with CAD, highlighting a possible use-case in preventative screening for early coronary disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Can Simple Metrics Identify the Process(es) Driving Extreme Precipitation?

This work seeks an automatic algorithm to determine the primary meteorological cause(s) of individual extreme precipitation events. Such determinations have been made before, but required a by-hand analysis of each separate event. This is very time-consuming and the field would benefit from an automatic process. This is especially relevant when comparing different datasets to determine which ones most closely hew towards reality. This paper tests three simple metrics over the continental United States using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). The metrics tested measure and compare the strength of three meteorological processes associated with extreme precipitation: fronts, convection, and cyclones. A multivariate statistical technique as well as individual case studies show evidence that the three meteorological processes of interest cannot be isolated from one another using these simple physical metrics. This shows the difficulty in finding “pure” cases of these precipitation-generating processes and suggests approaching these processes with an eye toward mixed-type events.

Swenson, Leif M. (ORCID:0000000199708735)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Full-Length ASFV B646L Gene Sequencing by Nanopore Offers a Simple and Rapid Approach for Identifying ASFV Genotypes

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute, highly hemorrhagic viral disease in domestic pigs and wild boars. The disease is caused by African swine fever virus, a double stranded DNA virus of the Asfarviridae family. ASF can be classified into 25 different genotypes, based on a 478 bp fragment corresponding to the C-terminal sequence of the B646L gene, which is highly conserved among strains and encodes the major capsid protein p72. The C-terminal end of p72 has been used as a PCR target for quick diagnosis of ASF, and its characterization remains the first approach for epidemiological tracking and identification of the origin of ASF in outbreak investigations. Recently, a new classification of ASF, based on the complete sequence of p72, reduced the 25 genotypes into only six genotypes; therefore, it is necessary to have the capability to sequence the full-length B646L gene (p72) in a rapid manner for quick genotype characterization. Here, we evaluate the use of an amplicon approach targeting the whole B646L gene, coupled with nanopore sequencing in a multiplex format using Flongle flow cells, as an easy, low cost, and rapid method for the characterization and genotyping of ASF in real-time.

Virology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Interaction Location in SuperCDMS Detectors

The Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) experiment uses silicon and germanium particle detectors operated at temperatures of ∼ 30 mK to search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs), which are candidate dark matter particles that interact weakly with nuclei in the detectors. In operating these detectors, it is required not only to measure the energy of the interaction between the WIMP and the nuclei, but also to reconstruct where the interaction occurred, as the location can be used to separate background interactions from signal and to correct for variations with the location of the energy response. In this project, we, as a team from the University of Minnesota, aim to address the problem of accurately reconstructing the locations of interactions in the SuperCDMS detectors using machine learning methods. The dataset we provided here includes interactions at thirteen different locations from test data taken at the University of Minnesota. For each interaction, a set of parameters was extracted from the signals from each of the five sensors. These parameters represent information known to be sensitive to interaction location, including the relative timing between pulses in different channels, and features like the pulse shape. The relative amplitudes of the pulses are also relevant but due to instabilities in amplification during the test, this data is not included. The parameters included for each interaction are described in our project document. For more details, feel free to check our Github page: https://fair-umn.github.io/FAIR-UMN-CDMS/

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Sizes of z ∼ 9−10 Galaxies Identified in the Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies (BoRG) Survey

Redshift z = 9–10 object selection is the effective limit of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging capability, even when confirmed with Spitzer. If only a few photometry data points are available, it becomes attractive to add criteria based on their morphology in these J- and H-band images. One could do so through visual inspection, a size criterion, or alternate morphometrics. We explore a vetted sample of Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies (BoRG) z ∼ 9 and z ∼ 10 candidate galaxies and the object rejected by Morishita+ to explore the utility of a size criterion in z = 9–10 candidate selection. A stringent, point-spread function (PSF)-corrected effective radius criterion ([[Formula]]) would result in the rejection of 65%–70% of the interlopers visually rejected by Morishita et al. It may also remove up to ∼20% of bona fide brightest (L≫L{sup ∗}) z = 9 or 10 candidates from a BoRG selected sample based on the Mason et al. luminosity functions, assuming the Holwerda et al. z∼9 size–luminosity relation. We argue that including a size constraint in lieu of a visual inspection may serve in wide-field searches for these objects in, e.g., Euclid or HST archival imaging with the understanding that some brightest (L≫L{sup ∗}) candidates may be missed. The sizes of the candidates found by Morishita et al. follow the expected size distribution of z ∼ 9 for bright galaxies, consistent with the log normal in Shibuya et al. and single objects. Two candidates show high star formation surface density (Σ{sub SFR}>25M{sub ⊙} kpc{sup −2}) and all merit further investigation and follow-up observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Missing Quasars from the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) cosmology survey includes a Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS), which will yield spectra for over 10 million bright galaxies (r < 20.2 AB mag). The resulting sample will be valuable for both cosmological and astrophysical studies. However, the star/galaxy separation criterion implemented in the nominal BGS target selection algorithm excludes quasar host galaxies in addition to bona fide stars. While this excluded population is comparatively rare (∼3–4 per square degrees), it may hold interesting clues regarding galaxy and quasar physics. Therefore, we present a target selection strategy that was implemented to recover these missing active galactic nuclei (AGN) from the BGS sample. The design of the selection criteria was both motivated and confirmed using spectroscopy. The resulting BGS-AGN sample is uniformly distributed over the entire DESI footprint. According to DESI survey validation data, the sample comprises 93% quasi-stellar objects (QSOs), 3% narrow-line AGN or blazars with a galaxy contamination rate of 2%, and a stellar contamination rate of 2%. Peaking around redshift z = 0.5, the BGS-AGN sample is intermediary between quasars from the rest of the BGS and those from the DESI QSO sample in terms of redshifts and AGN luminosities. The stacked spectrum is nearly identical to that of the DESI QSO targets, confirming that the sample is dominated by quasars. We highlight interesting small populations reaching z > 2, which are either faint quasars with nearby projected companions or very bright quasars with strong absorption features including the Lyα forest, metal absorbers, and/or broad absorption lines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distant Relatives: The Chemical Homogeneity of Comoving Pairs Identified in Gaia

Comoving pairs, even at the separations of $\mathcal{O}$(10 6 ) are a predicted reservoir of conatal stars. Here we present detailed chemical abundances of 62 stars in 31 comoving pairs with separations of 10 2 –10 7 au and 3D velocity differences <2 km s -1 . This sample includes both bound comoving pairs/wide binaries and unbound comoving pairs. Observations were taken using the Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectrograph on board the Magellan/Clay Telescope at high resolution (R~ 45,000) with a typical signal-to-noise ratio of 150 pixel -1 . With these spectra, we measure surface abundances for 24 elements, including Li, C, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Sr, Y, Zr, Ba, La, Nd, and Eu. Taking iron as the representative element, our sample of wide binaries is chemically homogeneous at the level of 0.05 dex, which agrees with prior studies on wide binaries. Importantly, even systems at separations 2 × 10 5 –10 7 au are homogeneous to 0.09 dex, as opposed to the random pairs, which have a dispersion of 0.23 dex. Assuming a mixture model of the wide binaries and random pairs, we find that 73 ± 22% of the comoving pairs at separations 2 × 10 5 –10 7 au are conatal. Our results imply that a much larger parameter space of phase space may be used to find conatal stars, to study M-dwarfs, star cluster evolution, exoplanets, chemical tagging, and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Circumgalactic Medium Absorption in QSO Spectra: A Bayesian Approach

We present a study of candidate galaxy–absorber pairs for 43 low-redshift QSO sightlines (0.06 < z < 0.85) observed with the Hubble Space Telescope/Cosmic Origins Spectrograph that lie within the footprint of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey with a statistical approach to match absorbers with galaxies near the QSO lines of sight using only the SDSS Data Release 12 photometric data for the galaxies, including estimates of their redshifts. Our Bayesian methods combine the SDSS photometric information with measured properties of the circumgalactic medium to find the most probable galaxy match, if any, for each absorber in the line-of-sight QSO spectrum. We find ~630 candidate galaxy–absorber pairs using two different statistics. The methods are able to reproduce pairs reported in the targeted spectroscopic studies upon which we base the statistics at a rate of 72%. The properties of the galaxies comprising the candidate pairs have median redshift, luminosity, and stellar mass, all estimated from the photometric data, $z$ = 0.13, L = 0.1$L$ * , and $\mathrm{log}({M}_{* }/{M}_{\odot })=9.7$. The median impact parameter of the candidate pairs is ~430 kpc, or ~3.5 times the galaxy virial radius. The results are broadly consistent with the high Ly$α$ covering fraction out to this radius found in previous studies. In conclusion, this method of matching absorbers and galaxies can be used to prioritize targets for spectroscopic studies, and we present specific examples of promising systems for such follow-up.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Possibility to Identify the Contributions from Collapsars, Supernovae, and Neutron Star Mergers from the Evolution of the r-process Mass Abundance Distribution

We study the evolution of rapid neutron-capture process (r-process) isotopes in the galaxy. We analyze relative contributions from core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), neutron star mergers, and collapsars under a range of astrophysical conditions and nuclear input data. Here we show that, although the r-process in each of these sites can lead to a similar (universal) elemental distribution, the detailed isotopic abundances can differ from one site to another. These differences may allow for the identification of which sources contributed to the early evolution of r-process material in the galaxy. Our simulations suggest that the early evolution was dominated by CCSNe and collapsar r-process nucleosynthesis. This conclusion may be testable if the next generation of observatories can deduce isotopic r-process abundances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fermi-LAT Captures a Late-2024 Gamma-Ray Outburst near Two Newly Identified Gamma-Ray-emitting Galactic Supernova Remnants, without Evidence of Physical Association

We report the gamma-ray study of two neighboring in the sky Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs), namely, 3C 434.1 (or G094.0+01.0) and G093.7–00.2. In the vicinity of the two SNRs, a late-2024 gamma-ray outburst—not physically connected to the SNRs—was detected with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Employing 16.5 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we report the first firm detection of the gamma-ray counterpart of 3C 434.1 at a 7.2σ significance and a likely detection of an enhanced gamma-ray emission signal at a 4.5σ level from G093.7–00.2. The late-2024 gamma-ray outburst is detected at a ∼12σ significance level over a duration of 3 days. For all three objects, a comprehensive morphological and spectral analysis of the corresponding gamma-ray data was conducted. The prevalent scenario for the nature of the gamma-ray emission of both SNRs is attributed to their surrounding environment. Both are likely interacting with nearby dense material, resulting in hadronically induced gamma-ray emission. We deduce that the outburst source is most likely a blazar in flare, linked to the compact, flat-spectrum radio source TXS 2138+527 (also known as NVSS J213953+530016). Further, the spectral analysis of the gamma-ray source conducted within the 100 MeV–800 GeV energy range using the complete LAT data sets, which yielded a soft averaged spectral shape, supports the hypothesis of a flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) origin for the source; with a most likely leptonically induced scenario for the observed gamma-ray outburst as inferred from the obtained hard spectral shape when utilizing short time intervals focusing on the outburst.

Michailidis, Miltiadis [Stanford Univ., CA (United↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-World Driving Features for Identifying Intelligent Driver Model Parameters

Driver behavior models play a significant role in representing different driving styles and the associated relationships with traffic patterns and vehicle energy consumption in simulation studies. The models often serve as a proxy for baseline human driving when assessing energy-saving strategies that alter vehicle velocity. Such models are especially important in connectivity-enabled energy-saving strategy research because they can easily adapt to changing driving conditions like posted speed limits or change in traffic light state. While numerous driver models exist, parametric driver models provide the flexibility required to represent variability in real-world driving through different combinations of model parameters. These model parameters must be informed by a representative set of parameter values for the driver model to adequately represent a real-world driver. It stands to reason that determining the parameter values from real-world driving data would serve the purpose of representing a real-world driver. Although the published literature is replete with techniques and consequences of using real-world driving data to determine parameter values for parametric driver models, none have explored them in the context of using shorter driving features where the parameter values may change over the course of a single trip for the same driver. In this study we consider the “intelligent driver model” (IDM) as our driver behavior model and use real-world driving data from the Transportation Secure Data Center (TSDC) maintained at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The TSDC includes real-world travel data from across the United States, from which NREL has created a wide range of driving routes consisting of road features such as speed limits, stop locations, and turn locations. The real-world driving data are categorized into different driving regimes and extracted into driving features. The driving features are then used to calibrate the parameter values for the IDM. The distribution of the parameters and the relationships among them are reported. The insights obtained from this study enable judicious usage of IDM or similar parametric driver models to represent baseline human driver behavior in simulations.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations

We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29 ± 9 Tg-SO 2 /yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91 ± 0.44 %). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO 2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05 K ± 0.42 K and 2.28 ± 0.80 %, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081–2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (–3.79 ± 0.76 % for G6sulfur compared to –2.07 ± 0.40 % for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying synoptic controls on boundary layer thermodynamic and cloud properties in a regional forecast model

Although most of our understanding of boundary layer cloudiness is based on idealized, subtropical, barotropic marine environments, boundary layer clouds exist across a range of conditions. In this study, we use the Naval Research Laboratory's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and an automated cold-front-relative analysis framework to explore the boundary layer structure associated with low clouds across a transect through the cold front of a midlatitude synoptic cyclone. The model credibly captures boundary layer structure in line with conceptual models of midlatitude cyclones and ground-based observations at Graciosa Island in the Azores. The warm sector is conditionally unstable, with clouds that are too shallow and with too little liquid water, compared to cloud property retrievals from satellite and surface-based instruments. The cold-frontal region exhibits convection associated with weak stability and ascent. Northwest of the cold front, the boundary layer is well mixed, deeper, and capped by a strong inversion maintained by large-scale subsidence. Simulated clouds in frontal and post-frontal regions are mostly too thick, with too much liquid water and too little cloud base drizzle. The post-frontal clouds are associated with grid-scale updrafts, which appear to be the model's attempt to represent mesoscale organization of cellular convection typically observed in the cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. The deep, well-mixed post-frontal boundary layers and cloudiness are maintained by strong surface fluxes, as in cold air outbreaks. Our analysis framework serves as a unique approach to model verification, and our results offer insights into differences in boundary layer cloud behavior between subtropical and synoptic cold-sector regimes.

Eissner, Jordan M. [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying atmospheric rivers and their poleward latent heat transport with generalizable neural networks: ARCNNv1

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme weather events that can alleviate drought or cause billions of US dollars in flood damage. By transporting significant amounts of latent energy towards the poles, they are crucial to maintaining the climate system's energy balance. Since there is no first-principle definition of an AR grounded in geophysical fluid mechanics, AR identification is currently performed by a multitude of expert-defined, threshold-based algorithms. The variety of AR detection algorithms has introduced uncertainty into the study of ARs, and the thresholds of the algorithms may not generalize to new climate datasets and resolutions. We train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect ARs while representing this uncertainty; we name these models ARCNNs. To detect ARs without requiring new labeled data and labor-intensive AR detection campaigns, we present a semi-supervised learning framework based on image style transfer. This framework generalizes ARCNNs across climate datasets and input fields. Using idealized and realistic numerical models, together with observations, we assess the performance of the ARCNNs. We test the ARCNNs in an idealized simulation of a shallow-water fluid in which nearly all the tracer transport can be attributed to AR-like filamentary structures. In reanalysis and a high-resolution climate model, we use ARCNNs to calculate the contribution of ARs to meridional latent heat transport, and we demonstrate that this quantity varies considerably due to AR detection uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗