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DOE OSTI2021

A History of Hanford Tank Waste, Implications for Waste Treatment and Disposal

More than 40 years of plutonium processing have left almost 56 million gallons of mixed radioactive waste sequestered in 177 underground tanks on the Hanford Site. Three different processing technologies were employed for plutonium purification in addition to uranium scavenging and fission product removal from the tank waste. All of these chemical processes have contributed to a complex waste stream that varies from tank to tank that presents downstream processing challenges to render the waste into a safe form for long-term storage. The current disposition pathway for Hanford tank waste is vitrification. To maximize waste loading and minimize the number of high-level waste canisters stored in a geologic repository, pretreatment of the waste is required. Both pretreatment and vitrification operations are impacted by the waste composition.

Separations, filtration, ion exchange↗

DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling CO 2 plume migration using an invasion-percolation approach that includes dissolution

Geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration has been proposed as a viable technique to decrease effective emissions of CO 2 into the atmosphere. However, the security of this sequestration is tied to our understanding of the long-term migration of CO 2 in subsurface. The dissolution of CO 2 in the reservoir brine is one of the main long-term trapping mechanisms. However, the assumptions used in large-scale reservoir simulations usually lead to an overestimation of the dissolution volume. We propose a modified approach based on the macroscopic invasion-percolation (MIP) theory that allows the dissolution of CO 2 into brine. We used a high-resolution geological model to compare the Darcy-, modified MIP-, and classic MIP-based simulation results. We observed a significant shrinkage in the nonaqueous plume volume when dissolution is considered during the MIP simulation. In the case of Darcy-based simulation, the plume was completely trapped inside the reservoir with limited migration even after a thousand-year simulation. On the other hand, the majority of the plume migrated out of the simulated reservoir in the case of MIP. Our approach provides more realistic estimation of the dissolution volume and nonaqueous plume extent while leveraging the computational efficiency enjoyed by MIP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Developing a roadmap for carbon capture, and storage in Oklahoma by assessing the viability of stacked storage

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) is critical for climate‐stabilizing energy transitions. In CCS, captured CO 2 is sequestered in saline aquifers within sedimentary basins. The CO 2 storage capacity and the rate of injection are functions of the geology of the saline aquifer, which is uncertain. To minimize impacts of this uncertainty, CCS projects could include backup plans, such as co‐locating geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) sites with or near existing CO 2 ‐enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 ‐EOR) operations. These “stacked storage” projects could hedge against uncertainty in the saline formation performance because captured CO 2 could be injected into either location in the event of unexpected events (e.g., the injectivity decreases). Here, we investigate the possibility and ramifications of developing CCS networks in Oklahoma that are amendable to stacked storage. We find that stacked storage is possible in Oklahoma but the counties with the lowest‐cost saline storage resources do not have existing CO 2 ‐EOR operations. At the systems level, we find it is slightly more expensive (e.g., $1/tCO 2 to $5/tCO 2 ) to site GCS in counties with CO 2 ‐EOR projects. This increased expense is largely due to increased CO 2 transportation costs because hundreds of km of additional pipeline is required to capture CO 2 from the lowest‐cost sources. Overall, our results suggest that it is optimal to build more pipelines and avoid injecting CO 2 in some of the lowest‐cost saline storage resources, to enable capturing CO 2 from the least‐cost sources. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A phased workflow to define permit‐ready locations for large volume CO 2 injection and storage

Abstract To‐date, only two UIC Class VI permits have been issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency. We illustrate a four‐phase workflow to first identify regional storage resources and then down‐select sites to yield permit‐ready locations that can accept and store large volumes of CO 2 . Specific permit requirements should guide objectives and define deliverables of respective workflow phases. In the first phase we used available regional data and screened structure and injection zones to locate resources that match CO 2 volumes planned to be captured. Available data were also used to assess presence and depth of usable groundwater, the key resource being protected via permitting. We then used advanced, closed‐form, analytical solutions (EASiTool) to estimate CO 2 injectivity into each hydrologically connected injection compartment. In the second phase we acquired and conditioned additional wireline logs and leased available seismic datasets. We interpreted the depositional systems from wireline well‐log character and mapped sandbody geometry to interpolate injection and confining‐zone distribution. Using available data, we mapped faults and locations of freshwater and overpressure (or other capacity‐limiting geologic parameters) in more detail. In the third phase, we used the augmented geologic data to develop a static model for the selected area, extracted the areas of highest interest, and generated and ran dynamic (flow) models. In a fourth phase, we reduced major uncertainties identified in earlier phases. Our case study indicates that to complete preparation of a permit application requires (1) improved lithologic characterization information (thicknesses and horizontal and vertical connectivity) and (2) better definition of poorly defined local faults. © 2023 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Storage in Fold‐and‐Thrust Belts: An Overlooked Gigatonne Storage Opportunity

This study presents numerical investigations of the trapping characteristics of fold-and-thrust belt structures, defining three carbon capture and storage (CCS) play types that could be used to store commercial volumes (millions of tonnes) of CO 2 . Specifically, we present simulations of CO 2 storage in three fold-and-thrust belt models comprising a thrust-ramp, duplex, and thrust-fold geometry. To constrain these play types in realistic geology, each model is based on a study site, including a novel investigation of a greenfield saline reservoir in Virginia, USA, being considered for commercial carbon storage and two well-characterized petroleum fields: the Wilburton field in Oklahoma, USA, and the Incahuasi field in Bolivia. Our results provide insight into several key parameters, such as the long-term security of injected CO 2 in these geologies and injection strategies for maximizing storage efficiency while reducing pressure-related risk. These results improve the understanding of CCS in fold-and-thrust belt storage sites globally by describing general storage parameters that may be applied to site-specific projects. We find that thrust-ramp geometries may securely trap CO 2 through solubility and hydrodynamic trapping under suitable reservoir conditions, duplex structures may store some quantities of CO 2 but are pressure-constrained, and that thrust-ramp structures may store large quantities of CO 2 by maximizing fetch volume, which simultaneously lowers geomechanical risk by reducing pressure buildup along zones of weakness.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of riverbed magnetic susceptibility for mapping biogeochemical hot spots in groundwater‐impacted rivers

Abstract Redox hot spots occurring as metal‐rich anoxic groundwater discharges through oxic wetland and river sediments commonly result in the formation of iron (Fe) oxide precipitates. These redox‐sensitive precipitates influence the release of nutrients and metals to surface water and can act as ‘contaminant sponges’ by absorbing toxic compounds. We explore the feasibility of a non‐invasive, high‐resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) technique to efficiently map the spatial variations of magnetic Fe oxide precipitates in the shallow bed of three rivers impacted by anoxic groundwater discharge. Laboratory analyses on Mashpee River (MA, USA) sediments demonstrate the sensitivity of MS to sediment Fe concentrations. Field surveys in the Mashpee and Quashnet rivers (MA, USA) reveal several discrete high MS zones, which are associated with likely anoxic groundwater discharge as evaluated by riverbed temperature, vertical head gradient, and groundwater chemistry measurements. In the East River (CO, USA), widespread cobbles/rocks exhibit high background MS from geological ferrimagnetic minerals, thereby obscuring the relatively small enhancement of MS from groundwater induced Fe oxide precipitates. Our study suggests that, in settings with low geological sources of magnetic minerals such as lowland rivers and wetlands, MS may serve as a complementary tool to temperature methods for efficiently mapping Fe oxide accumulation zones due to anoxic groundwater discharges that may function as biogeochemical hot spots and water quality control points in gaining systems.

Wang, Chen↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Colorado East River Community Observatory Data Collection

Abstract The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Colorado East River Community Observatory (ER) in the Upper Colorado River Basin was established in 2015 as a representative mountainous, snow‐dominated watershed to study hydrobiogeochemical responses to hydrological perturbations in headwater systems. The ER is characterized by steep elevation, geologic, hydrologic and vegetation gradients along floodplain, montane, subalpine, and alpine life zones, which makes it an ideal location for researchers to understand how different mountain subsystems contribute to overall watershed behaviour. The ER has both long‐term and spatially‐extensive observations and experimental campaigns carried out by the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA), led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and researchers from over 30 organizations who conduct cross‐disciplinary process‐based investigations and modelling of watershed behaviour. The heterogeneous data generated at the ER include hydrological, genomic, biogeochemical, climate, vegetation, geological, and remote sensing data, which combined with model inputs and outputs comprise a collection of datasets and value‐added products within a mountainous watershed that span multiple spatiotemporal scales, compartments, and life zones. Within 5 years of collection, these datasets have revealed insights into numerous aspects of watershed function such as factors influencing snow accumulation and melt timing, water balance partitioning, and impacts of floodplain biogeochemistry and hillslope ecohydrology on riverine geochemical exports. Data generated by the SFA are managed and curated through its Data Management Framework. The SFA has an open data policy, and over 70 ER datasets are publicly available through relevant data repositories. A public interactive map of data collection sites run by the SFA is available to inform the broader community about SFA field activities. Here, we describe the ER and the SFA measurement network, present the public data collection generated by the SFA and partner institutions, and highlight the value of collecting multidisciplinary multiscale measurements in representative catchment observatories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Livestock Exclusion on Stream Habitat and Aquatic Biota: A Review and Recommendations for Implementation and Monitoring

Abstract To inform riparian restoration, research, and monitoring and to provide management recommendations, we reviewed published studies evaluating the physical and biological effectiveness of livestock exclusion and grazing reduction on various metrics in riparian and aquatic areas. We identified 95 North American studies that reported the effects of livestock grazing reduction on physical habitat (channel morphology, mesohabitats, substrate, and bank stability), biological assemblages (riparian vegetation, macroinvertebrates, fish, and birds), and water quality metrics (temperature, nitrates, phosphorus, and turbidity). Most studies reported that methods to reduce or exclude livestock decreased channel width, width-to-depth ratio, bank erosion, soil bulk density, bare ground, water temperature, nitrogen, and phosphorus and increased riparian vegetation (cover, height, productivity, biomass, and abundance), riparian bird abundance, and young-of-the-year fishes. Results for channel depth, instream substrate, mesohabitats, water depth, juvenile and adult fishes, and macroinvertebrates showed no consistent response to exclusion. Project success was influenced by the time since exclusion; whether there was complete exclusion or continued grazing; and local climate, geology, and soils. Apart from bank erosion and stability, most of the physical and biological metrics took more than a decade to respond to livestock exclusion. However, coupling exclusion with planting and other restoration measures decreased the recovery time. Complete exclusion of livestock produced more consistent improvements in riparian condition and other metrics than rest–rotation or other grazing management strategies. Understanding how physical and biological metrics respond to livestock exclusion will require (1) focused, long-term studies using before–after or before–after, control–impact designs; and (2) monitoring of metrics that most consistently respond to exclusion. Ultimately, the design of exclusions should be driven by local climate, geology, biophysical conditions, and management history. Our results highlight the need for watershed-scale approaches to excluding livestock from broad areas and the need for implementation monitoring to ensure that fencing and other exclusion measures continue to exclude livestock and produce the desired responses.

Krall, Michelle↗

DOE OSTI2024

A preliminary investigation into the feasibility of laser ablation U–Pb isotope ratio measurement via all‐faraday cup detection with 10 11 ‐ and 10 13 ‐Ω amplifiers on the Neoma multicollector‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometer

Rationale Signal detection for uranium–lead (U–Pb) dating of zircon is typically performed via ion counters. Here, we develop a preliminary understanding of the strengths and limitations of faraday‐cup‐based detection. Methods A suite of zircon reference materials and the NIST‐610 glass were sampled using laser ablation followed by U–Pb isotope ratio measurement on a Neoma multicollector‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometer. Results We were able to produce geologically accurate 207 Pb/ 206 Pb, 206 Pb/ 238 U, and 207 Pb/ 235 U ratios for the NIST‐610 glass and the zircon standards, with ages ranging from ~2.5 Ga to ~337 Ma (TanBrown A, Oracle, 91550, Mud Tank, Temora, and Plešovice). Two of the younger zircon standards examined (94‐35, ~55.6 Ma, and Fish Canyon, 28.6 Ma) yielded accurate 206 Pb/ 238 U but not 207 Pb/ 235 U or 207 Pb/ 206 Pb ratios, whereas the youngest zircon standard (Penglai, ~4.4 Ma) failed for all three ratios of interest. The accuracy and precision of the all‐faraday method are directly tied to signal intensity, with reliable data capable of being produced even when both isotopes in a ratio have signals below ~0.001 V (equivalent to ~62 500 cps on an ion counter). Conclusion The all‐faraday cup multicollection method provides sufficient sensitivity to obtain geologically meaningful U–Pb data, with possible advantages being that laser pit depth‐dependent changes in the observed interelemental fractionation behavior may be easier to correct using a static collector configuration compared to when the ion beam is swept across a single detector while also removing the need for an interdetector‐type calibration. Further work is needed to refine the all‐faraday cup method (e.g., application of background subtraction and common Pb corrections, outlier removal, and interelement as well as down‐hole fractionation corrections), but our initial results demonstrate that the faraday detector method has sufficient sensitivity to warrant further study.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncovering the Size-dependent Thermal Solid Transformation of Akaganéite

Investigating the structural evolution and phase transformation of iron oxides is crucial for gaining a deeper understanding of geological changes on diverse planets and preparing oxide materials suitable for industrial applications. In this study, we employed in-situ heating techniques in conjunction with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations and ex-situ characterization to thoroughly analyze the thermal solid-phase transformation of akaganéite one-dimensional (1D) nanostructures with varying diameters. Our findings offer compelling evidence for a size-dependent morphology evolution in akaganéite 1D nanostructures, which can be attributed to the transformation from akaganéite to maghemite (?-Fe2O3) and subsequent crystal growth. Specifically, we observed that akaganéite nanorods with a diameter of around 50 nm transformed into hollow polycrystalline maghemite nanorods, which demonstrated remarkable stability without arresting crystal growth under continuous heating. In contrast, smaller akaganéite nanoneedles or nanowires with a diameter ranging from 20 to 8 nm displayed a propensity for forming single-crystal nanoneedles or nanowires through phase transformation and densification. By manipulating the size of the precursors, we have developed a straightforward method for the synthesis of single-crystal and polycrystalline maghemite nanowires through solid-phase transformation. These significant findings provide new insights into the size-dependent structural evolution and phase transformation of iron oxides at the nanoscale.

Wang, Xiang↗

DOE OSTI2021

Earliest Traces of Life as a Window on Life's Origins

Life is the outcome of a complex network of chemical reactions and mo-lecular interactions that emerged on Earth once primitive chemical automata could self-assemble in such a way that enabled them to self-reproduce and evolve. Yet exactly how, where and when life first appeared on our planet remains unknown. Various lines of evidence from fossilized traces of early life preserved in the geological record provide fundamental, albeit often rudimentary, insight into early life. The oldest fossils record the nature of life more than half a billion years after it emerged on Earth and suggest that considerable metabolic diversity had already evolved by this time. Microfossils, microbial mats, stromatolites and organic and inorganic geochemical signatures have been interpreted as compelling evidence for Archean biodiversity. In spite of the chemical enigmas of the earliest life and its limited record, characterization of the various classes of biosignatures indicative of life in its geological context provides guidance as to the earliest co-evolution of the geosphere and biosphere.

Cavalazzi, Barbara↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structure and thermodynamics of calcium rare earth silicate oxyapatites, Ca 2 RE 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 (RE = Pr, Tb, Ho, Tm)

Calcium rare earth silicate oxyapatites, (Ca 2 RE 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 ), are of interest as components of glass-ceramic nuclear waste forms. To assess their long-term behavior in a geologic repository, it is essential to determine their structure and thermodynamic stability at relevant conditions. Here, in this work, we performed detailed structural and thermodynamic investigations on Ca 2 Pr 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 , Ca 2 Tb 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 , Ca 2 Ho 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 , and Ca 2 Tm 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 by high energy synchrotron powder X-ray diffraction combined with Rietveld analysis and high temperature oxide melt drop solution calorimetry. Enthalpies of formation from constituent oxides (ΔH f,ox ) were determined to be -765.1 ± 22.8 kJ/mol for Ca 2 Pr 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 ; -638.9 ± 20.5 kJ/mol for Ca 2 Tb 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 ; -643.3 ± 10.3 kJ/mol for Ca 2 Ho 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 ; and -403.2 ± 5.1 kJ/mol for Ca 2 Tm 8 (SiO 4 ) 6 O 2 . These thermodynamic parameters were used in assessing the thermochemical stability of these phases in the presence of water vapor from room temperature to 600 K, as encountered in the subsurface environments of a geological repository.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sol–gel synthesis of iodosodalite precursors and subsequent consolidation with a glass binder made from oxides and sol–gel routes

Radioiodine accumulates in aqueous solutions and off-gas streams during nuclear fuel reprocessing due to its solubility in aqueous solutions and volatility, respectively. Additionally, radioiodine is highly mobile in geological environments and iodine-129 has been found to be one of the largest long-term contributors to chronic dose to humans in scenarios of radionuclide migration from geological repositories. Most of the radioiodine can be captured during fuel reprocessing in off-gas streams using solid sorbents and scrubbing solutions. Once iodine is captured, it must be stored in a durable form for eventual disposal. Iodosodalite has been investigated as a waste form for radioiodine, however these synthesis processes typically result in mixed products and iodine volatilization during consolidation. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel approach to synthesizing iodosodalite utilizing a sol-gel method. This method was chosen to lower processing temperatures and improve product yield. Preliminary experiments conducted to determine the viability of this synthetic method are presented. Additionally, consolidation of sol-gel derived iodosodalite with a glass-binder was explored using three different methods: 1) incorporating the glass-binder during gel preparation using alkoxide precursors; 2) separately preparing the glass binder using a sol-gel method; and 3) separately preparing the glass-binder using a melt-quench technique. Glass-bonded iodosodalite was successfully synthesized using these novel sol-gel approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Imaging and Measurements of Micrometer-Scale Fracture Aperture Fields Within a Heterogeneous Rock Using PET and X-ray CT

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of fracture apertures is essential for reliable characterization of flow and transport processes in fractured systems and for better understanding of physicochemical matrix–fracture interactions. Here, we propose and test two image-based methods, thereby extending the current experimental capabilities to characterize aperture size distribution in structurally heterogeneous geologic porous media noninvasively. The first approach utilizes an inversion method based on the dataset acquired from positron emission tomography (PET) and the second approach considers an extension of the classic missing attenuation technique that relies on clinical X-ray computed tomography (X-ray CT). Independent sets of imaging experiments are conducted on a fractured basalt core with heterogeneous matrix properties and aperture distributions to compare the two methodologies. A repeat of each experiment is conducted to verify the proposed workflows. The performance of these two imaging techniques is systematically evaluated through the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio, minimum fracture size detectability, and measurement errors. While both approaches provide a reliable estimation of fracture aperture distributions, PET yields a signal-to-noise ratio that is substantially higher than the corresponding X-ray CT measurements. Furthermore, uncertainties of the aperture values for PET are considerably lower ($\bar {\sigma}_{\text {d}} = 15\%$) compared to those obtained from X-ray CT ($\bar {\sigma}_{\text {d}} = 29\%$), allowing for the detection of minimum aperture sizes of 20 $\mu$m with 70% confidence level. Finally, these approaches provide key experimental tools for better understanding dynamic hydromechanical fracture properties in geologic systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A spatial-statistical investigation of surface expressions associated with cyclic steaming in the Midway-Sunset Oil Field, California

In the Midway Sunset Oil Field in Central California, operators inject steam into the shallow diatomite formation to enhance heavy oil recovery through imbibition, wettability alteration, and viscosity reduction, among other mechanisms. The injected steam, however, does not always remain in the reservoir or return through the wells. In two zones in the study area, the steam comes out at the surface, creating sinkholes, seeps, and steam outlets. These phenomena, called “surface expressions,” pose safety and environmental hazards. Even though these surface expressions are a widespread problem in Central California, they are not well documented and understood. Possible causes of the surface expressions include: high injection pressure, structurally controlled flow patterns, leakage of steam through old improperly abandoned wells, high injection volumes, or flow along naturally occurring faults, among other possible factors. This work examines attributes of the zones with surface expressions in order to determine factors that may contribute to their occurrence. Spatial statistical analysis using logistic regression, random forests, and classification trees is used to explore the relationship between the surface expressions and geological and production-related attributes. The results point to a significant spatial correlation between the surface expressions and two predictors: concentration of plugged wells and geologic seal thickness. The results guide follow-up studies to further investigate the role of well abandonment and seal thickness in the occurrence of surface expressions.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?

Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness, which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it. The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth's orbit twice a year at its nodes. Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Onset dynamics of air-water menisci on rock fracture surfaces

Information on menisci dynamics and equilibrium contact angles, θ e , is needed for modeling multiphase flow of fluids in geologic formations. The wettability of fracture faces is relevant to applications such as waterflooding in enhanced oil recovery and evaluation of caprock integrity for geologic carbon sequestration. We investigated the vertical capillary rise of air-water menisci on exposed fracture faces for a sandstone, a shale, and three granites. The experimental design approximated that employed in the Wilhelmy plate method. Replicate fracture faces were prepared by fracturing cylindrical rock cores using the Brazilian method and splitting the fractured cores apart along their fracture planes. Meniscus onset was imaged from a cross-sectional perspective using dynamic neutron radiography, and quantified with change point analysis. An existing model for meniscus onset fitted the experimental data very well (median R 2 = 0.96). Capillary rise was typified by t 2/3 scaling (where t is time), followed by a constant equilibrium height, z e . The average time taken for the menisci to reach z e was 0.39 s, with no differences between rock types. The menisci achieved a greater vertical extent on the fracture faces of the sedimentary rocks as compared to those of the granites. Apparent θ e values were calculated from the best fit estimates of z e using the Wilhelmy plate equation for a smooth and planar vertical surface. Despite the fractal roughness of some of the fracture faces, there was a significant linear relationship (R 2 = 0.80) between the apparent θ e values and intrinsic θ e values measured on polished surfaces of the same rocks using the sessile drop method. The regression equation indicated the apparent θ e values were consistently greater than the intrinsic values. This overestimation may be due to averaging of pixels at the air-water-solid interface, a required step in the image analysis. Further exploration of the range of applicability and measurement accuracy of this proposed new technique would be valuable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗