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DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Yarrowia lipolytica as a platform for designed consortia that incorporate in situ nitrogen fixation to enable ammonia-free bioconversion

Bioconversion processes require nitrogen for growth and production of intracellular enzymes to produce biofuels and bioproducts. Typically, this is supplied as reduced nitrogen in the form of ammonia, which is produced offsite from N 2 and H 2 via the Haber-Bosch process. While this has revolutionized industries dependent on fixed nitrogen (e.g., modern agriculture), it is highly energy-intensive and its reliance on natural gas combustion results in substantial global CO 2 emissions. Here we investigated the feasibility of in situ biological nitrogen fixation from N 2 gas as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas impacts of aerobic bioconversion processes. We developed an efficient and cost-effective method to screen fungal bioconversion hosts for compatibility with the free-living diazotrophic bacterium Azotobacter vinelandii under nitrogen fixing conditions. Our screening revealed that the genus Yarrowia is particularly enriched during co-culture experiments. Follow-up experiments identified four Y. lipolytica strains (NRRL Y-11853, NRRL Y-7208, NRRL Y-7317, and NRRL YB-618) capable of growth in co-culture with A. vinelandii. These strains utilize ammonium secreted during diazotrophic fixation of N 2 , which is provided as a component of the air input stream during aerobic fermentation. This demonstrates the feasibly of in situ biological nitrogen fixation to support heterotrophic fermentation processes for production of fuels and chemicals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Safety and efficacy of peripheral nerve blocks to treat refractory headaches after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage – A pilot observational study

Objectives: Headache after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (HASH) is common, severe, and often refractory to conventional treatments. Current treatment standards include medications including opioids, until the pain is mitigated. Peripheral nerve blocks (PNBs) may be an effective therapeutic option for HASH. We conducted a small before-and-after study of PNBs to determine safety, feasibility, and efficacy in treatment of HASH. Methods: We conducted a pilot before-and-after observational study and collected data for 5 patients in a retrospective control group and 5 patients in a prospective intervention PNB group over a 12-month period. All patients received a standard treatment of medications including acetaminophen, magnesium, gabapentin, dexamethasone and anti-spasmodics or anti-emetics as needed. Patients in the intervention group received bilateral greater occipital, lesser occipital, and supraorbital PNBs in addition to medications. The primary outcome was pain severity, measured by Numeric pain rating scale (NPRS). All patients were followed for 1 week following enrollment. Results: The mean ages in the PNB group and control group were 58.6 and 57.4, respectively. One patient in the control group developed radiographic vasospasm. Three patients in both groups had radiographic hydrocephalus and IVH, requiring external ventricular drain (EVD) placement. The PNB group had an average reduction in mean raw pain score of 2.76 (4.68, 1.92 p = 0.024), and relative pain score by 0.26 (0.48, 0.22 p = 0.026), compared to the control group. The reduction occurred immediately after PNB administration. Conclusion: PNB can be a safe, feasible and effective treatment modality for HASH. Further investigations with a larger sample size are warranted.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decoding the EEG patterns induced by sequential finger movement for brain-computer interfaces

Objective In recent years, motor imagery-based brain–computer interfaces (MI-BCIs) have developed rapidly due to their great potential in neurological rehabilitation. However, the controllable instruction set limits its application in daily life. To extend the instruction set, we proposed a novel movement-intention encoding paradigm based on sequential finger movement. Approach Ten subjects participated in the offline experiment. During the experiment, they were required to press a key sequentially [i.e., Left→Left (LL), Right→Right (RR), Left→Right (LR), and Right→Left (RL)] using the left or right index finger at about 1 s intervals under an auditory prompt of 1 Hz. The movement-related cortical potential (MRCP) and event-related desynchronization (ERD) features were used to investigate the electroencephalography (EEG) variation induced by the sequential finger movement tasks. Twelve subjects participated in an online experiment to verify the feasibility of the proposed paradigm. Main results As a result, both the MRCP and ERD features showed the specific temporal–spatial EEG patterns of different sequential finger movement tasks. For the offline experiment, the average classification accuracy of the four tasks was 71.69%, with the highest accuracy of 79.26%. For the online experiment, the average accuracies were 83.33% and 82.71% for LL-versus-RR and LR-versus-RL, respectively. Significance This paper demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed sequential finger movement paradigm through offline and online experiments. This study would be helpful for optimizing the encoding method of motor-related EEG information and providing a promising approach to extending the instruction set of the movement intention-based BCIs.

Liu, Chang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of the U.S. inflation reduction act on SMR economics

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation—specifically the PTC and ITC—on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR’s net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner’s optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Modeling, Trajectory Optimization, and Linear Control of Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

The construction industry faces a growing need for automation to reduce costs, improve accuracy and productivity, and address labor shortages. One area that stands to benefit significantly from automation is panelized prefabricated building envelope retrofits, which can improve a building’s energy efficiency in heating and cooling interior spaces. In this paper, we propose using cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs), which can effectively lift and handle large objects, to install these panels. However, implementing CDPRs presents significant challenges because of their nonlinear dynamics, complex trajectory planning, and precise control requirements. To tackle these challenges, this work focuses on a new application of established control and trajectory optimization theories in a CDPR simulation of a building envelope retrofit under real-world conditions. We first model the dynamics of CDPRs, highlighting the critical role of damping in system behavior. Building on this dynamic model, we formulate a trajectory optimization problem to generate feasible and efficient motion plans for the robot under operational and environmental constraints. Given the high precision required in the construction industry, accurately tracking the optimized trajectory is essential. However, challenges such as partial observability and external vibrations complicate this task. To address these issues, a Linear Quadratic Gaussian control framework is applied, enabling the robot to track the optimized trajectories with precision. Simulation results show that the proposed controller enables precise end effector positioning with errors under 4 mm, even in the presence of external wind disturbances. Through comprehensive simulations, our approach allows for an in-depth exploration of the system’s nonlinear dynamics, trajectory optimization, and control strategies under controlled yet highly realistic conditions. The results demonstrate the feasibility of CDPRs for automating panel installation and provide insights into their practical deployment.

CDPR↗

DOE OSTI2021

Crystal Structure and Preparation of Li7La3Zr2O12 (LLZO) Solid-State Electrolyte and Doping Impacts on the Conductivity: An Overview

As an essential part of solid-state lithium-ion batteries, solid electrolytes are receiving increasing interest. Among all solid electrolytes, garnet-type Li7La3Zr2O12 (LLZO) has proven to be one of the most promising electrolytes because of its high ionic conductivity at room temperature, low activation energy, good chemical and electrochemical stability, and wide potential window. Since the first report of LLZO, extensive research has been done in both experimental investigations and theoretical simulations aiming to improve its performance and make LLZO a feasible solid electrolyte. These include developing different methods for the synthesis of LLZO, using different crucibles and different sintering temperatures to stabilize the crystal structure, and adopting different methods of cation doping to achieve more stable LLZO with a higher ionic conductivity and lower activation energy. It also includes intensive efforts made to reveal the mechanism of Li ion movement and understand its determination of the ionic conductivity of the material through molecular dynamic simulations. Nonetheless, more insightful study is expected in order to obtain LLZO with a higher ionic conductivity at room temperature and further improve chemical and electrochemical stability, while optimal multiple doping is thought to be a feasible and promising route. This review summarizes recent progress in the investigations of crystal structure and preparation of LLZO, and the impacts of doping on the lithium ionic conductivity of LLZO.

Raju, Md Mozammal (ORCID:0000000319040523)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electromagnetic Design Optimization Integrated with Mechanical Stress Analysis of PM-Assisted Synchronous Reluctance Machine Topologies Enabled with a Blend of Magnets

Permanent Magnet-Assisted Synchronous Reluctance Machines (PMASynRM) provide a low-cost alternative to Surface PM Machines due to the use of relatively lower grades of rare-earth (RE) or RE-free magnets, as the performance degradation due to weaker magnets is compensated by the presence of reluctance torque. However, the weaker magnets suffer from a high risk of demagnetization, leading to unreliable motor operation. Using a blend of RE and RE-free magnets has the potential to overcome this issue. This paper proposes to blend different grades of various rare-earth (RE) and rare-earth-free (RE-free) magnets in six different combinations and utilizes them in two-layer and three-layer U-shaped PMASynRM topologies with both eight-pole and six-pole variations. The rotor of the various designs is then optimized using a differential evolution (DE) based optimization algorithm to obtain low-cost designs with reduced RE magnet volume and minimum demagnetization risk. The optimization of each design is also integrated with the evaluation of mechanical stresses in the rotor laminations so as to maintain the stresses below the material yield strength. Furthermore, the various performance metrics, such as toque–speed/power–speed characteristics, demagnetization, and efficiency maps, are evaluated for each of the optimized and mechanically feasible designs. A quantitative comparison of the various optimized designs is also obtained to highlight the various trade-offs. The results indicate the feasibility of meeting the baseline torque requirement across the entire speed range, even with a 100% reduction in RE magnet volume and less than 5% demagnetization risk, while achieving a cost reduction exceeding 50%. Moreover, the two-layer, eight-pole designs exhibit relatively higher performance, whereas the three-layer, eight-pole designs are found to be the most economical option.

design optimization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operation at Reduced Atmospheric Pressure and Concept of Reliability Redundancy for Optimized Design of Insulation Systems

Electrified transportation is calling for insulation design criteria that is adequate to provide elevated levels of power density, power dynamics and reliability. Increasing voltage levels are expected to cause accelerated intrinsic and extrinsic aging effects which will not be easily predictable at the design stage due to a lack of suitable modeling. Designing reliable insulation systems would require finding solutions able to control accelerated aging due to an unpredictable increase of intrinsic stresses and the onset of extrinsic stresses as partial discharges. This paper proposes the concept of reliability redundancy for the insulation design of aerospace electrical asset components, which is also validated at lower-than-standard atmospheric pressure. The principle is that extrinsic-aging-free design might be achieved upon determining the aging stress or abnormal service stresses distribution and being sure that aging will not generate conditions that can incept extrinsic aging (partial discharges) during operation life. However, such information is never, in practice, fully available to insulation system designers. Hence, especially in critical applications such as electrified aircraft, aerospace, and combat ships a further level of reliability should be added to a partial-discharge-free design, which can consist of the use of corona-resistant materials and/or of life models able to consider the accelerated aging effect of partial discharges (or any other type of extrinsic-accelerated aging factor). Innovative life modeling considering both extrinsic and intrinsic aging stresses, insulating material testing to estimate model parameters, and a metric for quantifying the extent of corona (or partial discharge) resistance can lead to establishing feasibility and limit conditions for optimized or fully reliability-redundant design. It is shown in the paper that if an extrinsic-aging-free design is not feasible, and it is therefore replaced by a redundant design, a further level of reliability redundancy can be provided by effective condition monitoring plans.

Montanari, Gian Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physical Background, Computations and Practical Issues of the Magnetohydrodynamic Pressure Drop in a Fusion Liquid Metal Blanket

In blankets of a fusion power reactor, liquid metal (LM) breeders, such as pure lithium or lead-lithium alloy, circulate in complex shape blanket conduits for power conversion and tritium breeding in the presence of a strong plasma-confining magnetic field. The interaction of the magnetic field with induced electric currents in the breeder results in various magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) effects on the flow. Of them, high MHD pressure losses in the LM breeder flows is one of the most important feasibility issues. To design new feasible LM breeding blankets or to improve the existing blanket concepts and designs, one needs to identify and characterize sources of high MHD pressure drop, to understand the underlying physics of MHD flows and to eventually define ways of mitigating high MHD pressure drop in the entire blanket and its sub-components. This article is a comprehensive review of earlier and recent studies of MHD pressure drop in LM blankets with a special focus on: (1) physics of LM MHD flows in typical blanket configurations, (2) development and testing of computational tools for LM MHD flows, (3) practical aspects associated with pumping of a conducting liquid breeder through a strong magnetic field, and (4) approaches to mitigation of the MHD pressure drop in a LM blanket.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Framework for Assessing Impact of Wave-Powered Desalination on Resilience of Coastal Communities

Coastal communities face unique challenges in maintaining continuous service from critical infrastructure. This research advances capabilities for evaluating the impact of using wave energy to desalinate water on the resilience of coastal communities. The study focuses on the feasibility of using wave energy conversion to provide drinking water to communities in need and applying resilience metrics to quantify its impact on the community. To assess the feasibility of wave-powered desalination, this research couples the open-source software Wave Energy Converter SIMulator (WEC-Sim) and Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR). This research explores variations in both the wave resource (location, seasonality, and duration) and the ability to maintain drinking water service during a disruption scenario by applying the simulation framework to three case studies, which are based on communities in Puerto Rico. The simulation framework provides a contextualized assessment of the ability of wave-powered desalination to improve the resilience of coastal communities, which can serve as a methodology for future studies seeking the integration of wave-powered desalination with water distribution systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Assessment of Tidal Energy Extraction in the Western Passage

Numerical models have been widely used for the resource characterization and assessment of tidal instream energy. The accurate assessment of tidal stream energy resources at a feasibility or project-design scale requires detailed hydrodynamic model simulations or high-quality field measurements. This study applied a three-dimensional finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM) to simulate the tidal hydrodynamics in the Passamaquoddy–Cobscook Bay archipelago, with a focus on the Western Passage, to assist tidal energy resource assessment. IEC Technical specifications were considered in the model configurations and simulations. The model was calibrated and validated with field measurements. Energy fluxes and power densities along selected cross sections were calculated to evaluate the feasibility of the tidal energy development at several hotspots that feature strong currents. When taking both the high current speed and water depth into account, the model results showed that the Western Passage has great potential for the deployment of tidal energy farms. The maximum extractable power in the Western Passage was estimated using the Garrett and Cummins method. Different criteria and methods recommended by the IEC for resource characterization were evaluated and discussed using a sensitivity analysis of energy extraction for a hypothetical tidal turbine farm in the Western Passage.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quality Investigation of Pultruded Carbon Fiber Panels Subjected to Four-Point Flexure via Fiber Optic Sensing

Pultruded carbon fiber-reinforced composites are attractive to the wind energy industry due to the rapid production of highly aligned unidirectional composites with enhanced fiber volume fractions and increased specific strength and stiffness. However, high volume carbon fiber manufacturing remains cost-prohibitive. This study investigates the feasibility of a pultruded low-cost textile carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy composite as a promising material in spar cap production was undertaken based on mechanical response to four-point flexure loading. As spar caps are primarily subjected to flexural loading, large-span four-point flexure was considered, and coupon testing was restricted to tensile modulus and compression strength assessment. High-resolution spatial fiber optic strain sensing was utilized to determine spatial strain distribution during four-point flexure, revealing consistent strain along the length of the part and proved to be an excellent option for process manufacturing quality examination. Additionally, holes with diameters of 2.49 mm, 5.08 mm, and 1.93 mm were drilled through the thickness of full-width parts to determine the feasibility of structural health monitoring of pultruding parts internal to wind blades via fiber optic strain sensing.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Is Genetic Engineering a Route to Enhance Microalgae-Mediated Bioremediation of Heavy Metal-Containing Effluents?

Contamination of the biosphere by heavy metals has been rising, due to accelerated anthropogenic activities, and is nowadays, a matter of serious global concern. Removal of such inorganic pollutants from aquatic environments via biological processes has earned great popularity, for its cost-effectiveness and high efficiency, compared to conventional physicochemical methods. Among candidate organisms, microalgae offer several competitive advantages; phycoremediation has even been claimed as the next generation of wastewater treatment technologies. Furthermore, integration of microalgae-mediated wastewater treatment and bioenergy production adds favorably to the economic feasibility of the former process—with energy security coming along with environmental sustainability. However, poor biomass productivity under abiotic stress conditions has hindered the large-scale deployment of microalgae. Recent advances encompassing molecular tools for genome editing, together with the advent of multiomics technologies and computational approaches, have permitted the design of tailor-made microalgal cell factories, which encompass multiple beneficial traits, while circumventing those associated with the bioaccumulation of unfavorable chemicals. Previous studies unfolded several routes through which genetic engineering-mediated improvements appear feasible (encompassing sequestration/uptake capacity and specificity for heavy metals); they can be categorized as metal transportation, chelation, or biotransformation, with regulation of metal- and oxidative stress response, as well as cell surface engineering playing a crucial role therein. This review covers the state-of-the-art metal stress mitigation mechanisms prevalent in microalgae, and discusses putative and tested metabolic engineering approaches, aimed at further improvement of those biological processes. Finally, current research gaps and future prospects arising from use of transgenic microalgae for heavy metal phycoremediation are reviewed.

Ranjbar, Saeed (ORCID:0000000256518605)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technoeconomic Assessment of Phosphoric Acid and Rare Earth Element Recovery from Phosphoric Acid Sludge

Sustainability faces many challenges, including the availability of materials necessary for technological advancement. Rare earth elements (REEs), for example, are key materials for several manufacturing industries that can unlock renewable energy and sustainable development. In this study, a decanter centrifuge has been employed to successfully separated phosphoric acid and REE-containing particles from phosphoric acid sludge with concentrations ranging from 1000 to 2200 ppm REEs. Operating efficiently with up to 35 wt.% solids, the centrifuge was demonstrated to achieve approximately 95% phosphoric acid recovery and 90% REE recovery in a single pass, eliminating the need for additional processing steps. This breakthrough supports a proposed rare earth oxide (REO) recovery process integrating phosphoric acid (PA), elemental phosphorus (P4), and REO into two potential pathways: PA-REO and PA-P4-REO. These processes aim to reintroduce recovered phosphoric acid into the main product to significantly increase output and revenue. Post-separation, phosphorus-rich particles can be converted to P4, while REE-containing solids undergo further treatment including acid leaching, extraction/stripping, precipitation, and calcination to produce a marketable REO material. Technoeconomic analysis indicates promising profitability, with the PA-REO process showing a delta net present value (ΔNPV) of USD 441.8 million over a 12-year period and expected return within a year of construction, while the PA-P4-REO process yields a ΔNPV of USD 178.7 million over a 12-year return period. Both pathways offer robust financial prospects and demonstrate the feasibility of commercial-scale REO recovery from phosphoric acid sludge, offering an economically feasible approach to produce REEs for future sustainable development challenges related to sustainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Analytics for Hydropower Fleet Intelligence

A primary challenge in hydropower industry is the ability to maintain cost-competitiveness, reliability, and security of hydropower assets through evolving power system contexts and aging of the fleet. Maintaining cost-effective and reliable operations under these conditions is expected to require new modernization and maintenance paradigms for changing contexts. Changes in existing practices for O&M will require an understanding of the current state and health of hydropower assets, and the impact of changing paradigms on asset health and reliability. The Hydropower Fleet Intelligence project is developing and evaluating standardized methodologies and analysis tools for data-driven asset reliability and management technologies for hydropower, leading to eventual predictive maintenance planning, repair/replacement decision making, and asset-reliability and cost-optimized operations. A key question is the feasibility of using existing data sets at hydropower facilities to perform assessments of asset reliability. This document uses data from hydropower facilities to assess the potential for using available analytics methods for asset reliability estimates. In addition to reliability assessments, the feasibility of using existing analytics techniques for several other potential applications is discussed. Finally, a case study that a data-driven model is trained to learn nominal operations via vibration data from an asset of a certain plant, and then utilized to identify anomalies on a similar asset from a different plant, highlighting the generic use of proposed Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) approaches.

Yucesan, Yigit↗

DOE OSTI2023

Additive Manufacturing for Powering the Blue Economy Applications: A Tidal Turbine Blade Case Study: Preprint

As the marine renewable energy industry continues to expand, innovation in the manufacturing space must grow accordingly to reduce costs and ensure the economic feasibility of new technologies. Additive manufacturing, more commonly known as 3D printing, provides an alternative for rapid prototyping of marine hydrokinetic technologies, particularly supporting Powering the Blue Economy initiatives of the U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office. This study explores the application of additive manufacturing in the development of marine hydrokinetic structures, focusing on material and printing method selection, design, and analysis of a 3D-printed spar for an axial-flow tidal turbine blade. Corrosion-resistant metals were deemed ideal due to the loads and harsh marine environment the blade would experience. Laser metal deposition methods were determined to be the most effective and scalable for the considered scale. The designed spar adapts its geometry to the blade - a feature uniquely suited to additive manufacturing - and is intended to serve as the blade's primary structural component. A finite element model was used to study stresses and deformations under loading conditions. The spar was manufactured using 316L stainless steel through direct energy deposition, and defects were assessed and recorded. Future efforts will include mechanical testing of the spar. This research establishes a benchmark process for using additive manufacturing in developing marine hydrokinetic structures, paving the way for future optimization and techno-economic analysis.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5

Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗