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Classification

A supervised learning task involves constructing a mapping from input data (normally described by several features) to the appropriate outputs. Within supervised learning, one type of task is a classification learning task, in which each output is one or more classes to which the input belongs. In supervised learning, a set of training examples---examples with known output values---is used by a learning algorithm to generate a model. This model is intended to approximate the mapping between the inputs and outputs. This model can be used to generate predicted outputs for inputs that have not been seen before. For example, we may have data consisting of observations of sunspots. In a classification learning task, our goal may be to learn to classify sunspots into one of several types. Each example may correspond to one candidate sunspot with various measurements or just an image. A learning algorithm would use the supplied examples to generate a model that approximates the mapping between each supplied set of measurements and the type of sunspot. This model can then be used to classify previously unseen sunspots based on the candidate's measurements. This chapter discusses methods to perform machine learning, with examples involving astronomy.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

Exploration Architecture with Quantum Inertial Gravimetry and In-Situ ChipSat Sensors

The Dual Exploration Architecture is a mission concept that combines remote sensing and in-situ observations into a single mission to answer planetary science questions that can only be answered with both types of data. Adoption of dual exploration architectures may short circuit the long, slow cycle of missions to inaccessible bodies by eliminating the need for separate precursor and follow-up missions. Additionally, the dual architecture possesses inherent flexibility that enables the design of adaptive, event-driven missions that are very different from traditional, largely pre-planned missions. Five key observations about the state and trends of planetary science exploration lead us to the dual architecture: increasing complexity of observations; scarcity of future mission opportunities; desire to capture transitory events; continued miniaturization of spacecraft components; and the Mars exploration cycle. Our goal in this study is to explore missions that can only happen using the dual architecture concept and find technology development needs that must be filled for those missions to compete. A survey of historical and current missions finds that opportunities for exploration are becoming less frequent, causing the flexibility and dual-nature elements of each mission to become more common. The dual exploration architecture takes these trends to their far conclusion, attempting to eliminate precursor and follow-up missions while still returning more scientific payoff. A study of the future of planetary science goals through the decadal survey reveals broad applicability of dual missions to solve mysteries that cannot be answered with a traditional mission architecture. These missions fall into three broad classes: choosing a local target from a global survey; dynamic/reactive science; and global in-situ networks. Two example missions of each class are notionally described. A deeper look at these dual architecture classes reveals four technology development needs that must be addressed for wide adoption of dual missions: passive landers; guided atmospheric probes; robust sensing packages; and small, precise orbital instruments. This study pursues a specific focus on two examples of such enabling technologies: the ChipSat and cold atom gravimetry. The ChipSat is a fully functional spacecraft-on-a-chip system that has broad versatility in the dual architecture mission space. Initial studies show that ChipSats could survive as passive impactor landers on bodies up to the size of Europa. Furthermore, COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) components could provide an in-situ sensor suite that readily answers a number of pressing planetary science questions. Cold atom gravimetry uses inertial sensors based on light-pulse atom interferometry in a small form factor to map the gravity field of a body to precision equaling what would normally require two full spacecraft to achieve. The cold atom gravimeter provides an example of how advanced remote sensing capability can enable dual missions by providing greater returns in a significantly smaller package. Using the above two technologies, we study an example dual-architecture mission to both characterize and sample the subsurface oceans at Europa. The greatest scientific return in terms of detecting extraterrestrial life is in those regions where Europa’s ice crust is thin. The identification of regions with thin ice should therefore precede the selection of surface targets and dispatch of probes to those targets. This two-step process, if accomplished by separate flagship-scale missions, might take decades. As a result, a combined mission to both identify thin areas of Europa’s ice and follow up with surface observations at those regions is a good candidate for the dual-exploration architecture. This example mission consists of an orbiter spacecraft carrying a cold atom gravimeter capable of sensing or inferring the ice thickness on regional to local scales, along with a number of ChipSat probes capable of landing on the moon. The small size and weight of the ChipSats allows large numbers of them to be carried, ensuring that enough can be dropped to ensure survival of a minimum number of probes and potentially allowing for the in-situ sampling of multiple locations on the moon. The example missions and Europa case study show that amazing scientific return can obtained from dual-exploration architecture missions with a single launch by breaking the long timescales of planetary exploration and providing the flexibility to capturing transitory events and collect data across the local, regional, and global scales.

Exploration↗

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Low Count and Background Radionuclides Analysis - 20488

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is often faced with the need to evaluate radionuclides at low concentrations. When site sample data are likely to be close to threshold activity concentrations of interest, then the means by which the radiochemical analysis is performed and reported is critical. This situation can occur when differentiating from zero (presence/absence) for radionuclides that do not occur naturally, close comparison with environmental background for naturally occurring radionuclides, close comparison with a risk- or dose-based threshold concentrations of interest, or even comparisons across studies. There are several analytical issues that are of concern, but the two that appear to cause incorrect decisions to be made most often involve establishing detection limits and subtracting ambient background conditions in the laboratory. These issues are not critical when radionuclide activity concentrations are large relative to thresholds of concern, but they seem to be poorly understood when it matters. When the comparisons are important and are likely to be close to a threshold of interest, then the general contract with the analytical laboratories needs to be changed so that the right or appropriate data are obtained. The concern is that important decisions are made incorrectly more often as greater scrutiny is placed on DoE's radionuclide cleanup or monitoring decisions by the public and other stakeholders. Examples are presented of problems that have been observed for different projects, both within and outside the realm of DOE and NRC remediation and radioactive waste disposal problems, and solutions are offered that should lead to better data from which important decisions need to be made. The first example is from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and involves radionuclide concentrations in soil and rock beneath LANL's Material Disposal Area (MDA) G. An initial review of the data led to a conclusion that americium and plutonium are a long way present beneath MDA G. A more thorough review of the data that accounted properly for ambient background and the detection limits that had been established led to the opposite conclusion. Another example is from the Nevada National Security Site where tritium results from one of the wells were unexpectedly high. Proper understanding and analysis of ambient background led to the conclusion that the increased concentrations were not so obvious, and that a different contract with the analytical laboratory was needed to provide more appropriate data to support a better determination. Other examples are used from regulatory review of projects in Nevada, where background levels and secular equilibrium for naturally occurring radionuclides are not established correctly because of analytical issues. The same basic issues have also been found to create difficulties analyzing historical data from the West Valley Demonstration Project. There is evidence in the data that the apparent lack of secular equilibrium where it is expected to exist is related to ambient background subtraction or other analytical issues. A final example is presented for analysis of Tc-99 in samples of depleted uranium. In this case, two different studies that were performed only three months apart provide quite different results. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the data quality objectives (DQO) process in the mid-1980's to establish decision performance criteria for data collection. EPA guidance (EPA G-4, for example) clearly distinguishes between DQOs and measurement performance objectives (MQOs) that should be addressed for laboratory analysis of samples. The language of DQOs and MQOs has become confused over time it seems, and the subsequent effects seem to include a lack of attention to decision performance and a routine approach to measurement quality. In order to better address radionuclide sample analysis when the concentrations are close to thresholds of concern, which might be zero for some radionuclides, background for others, and risk-based thresholds for yet others, it is important that routine laboratory analysis methods are adjusted, and that the project team and the laboratory work closely together to ensure that the data meets the MQO requirements of laboratory analysis and reporting of results, and that the MQOs effectively support project-specific DQOs. This basic approach will be applied in Los Alamos in the coming year to the collection of moisture data from underneath MDA T that will be analyzed for americium and neptunium isotopes. Proper understanding of the radiochemistry methods and reporting, and of appropriate statistical methods is critical to the success of such projects, ensuring that the right decisions are made. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

IDAES-PSE 2.1.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.1.0 Release Highlights New IDAES Examples Repository Starting with this release, the IDAES examples are developed in the new IDAES/examples repository. Along with many content and usability improvements, the most significant changes are: To install the examples, after installing IDAES, run pip install idaes-examples The idaes get-examples command, previously used for this, has been removed The HTML version is now available at https://idaes-examples.readthedocs.io The previous URL, https://idaes.github.io/examples-pse, will not be updated and may be removed at some point in the future For more details, refer to the resources available at IDAES/examples. Removal of Non-Functional Apps A review of the code in the idaes/apps and idaes/models_extra folders was undertaken, and a number of tools were identified as being outdated or non-functional and no longer supported by their development teams. Due to this, the following tools have been removed: idaes/apps/alamopy_depr (note that the new ALAMOpy interface remains avaialble in idaes/core/surrogates) idaes/apps/helmet idaes/apps/ripe idaes/apps/roundingRegression idaes/models_extra/carbon_capture Pyomo 6.6 This version of IDAES is the first requiring Pyomo 6.6. This version of Pyomo contains multiple internal improvements and refactorings. While for the majority of cases this should have positive or no impact on solvability of IDAES models, we are aware of a small number of models that have been affected as a result of these changes. For more information, refer to the Pyomo 6.6.1 release notes. Other highlights Model Initialization A prototype API for a new approach to initializing IDAES models is now available which makes available some new techniques for initializing models. This is documented in the Initializing Models Reference Guide Modular Properties Framework Support for some transport properties Helmholtz Equation of State properties Better error checking for case where unit models are set to include phase equilibrium but the property package is set to support only a single phase Multi-Stream Contactor model: a new base model for systems involving contacting of two or more streams with mass transfer. This model is intended to be used as the foundation for models such as membrane separators, solvent extraction and other similar processes. This is documented in the Multi-Stream Contactor Reference Guide idaes/models_extra/power_generation report() methods for unit models using Helmholtz equation of state General Code Maintenance Streamlining of dependencies and creation of new optional dependency groupings to support non-core tools General linting of codebase to ensure compliance with most pylint checks Spell checking of all code and doc strings Removal of backward compatibility code for Python 2

IDAES↗

IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release Highlights Upcoming Changes IDAES will be switching to the new Pyomo solver interface in the next release. Whilst this will hopefully be a smooth transition for most users, there are a few important changes to be aware of. The new solver interface uses a different version of the IPOPT writer (“ipopt_v2”) and thus any custom configuration options you might have set for IPOPT will not carry over and will need to be reset. By default, the new Pyomo linear presolver will be activated with ipopt_v2. Whilst are working to identify any bugs in the presolver, it is possible that some edge cases will remain. IDAES will begin deploying a new set of scaling tools and APIs over the next few releases that make use of the new solver writers. The old scaling tools and APIs will remain for backward compatibility but will begin to be deprecated. New Models, Tools and Features New Intersphinx extension automatically linking Jupyter notebook examples to project documentation New end-to-end diagnostics example demonstrated on a real problem New complementarity formulation for VLE with cubic equations of state, backward compatibility for old formulation New solver interface with presolve (ipopt_v2) in support of upcoming changes to the initialization and APIs methods, with default set to ipopt to maintain backwards compatibility; this will deprecate once all examples have been updated New forecaster and parameterized bidder methods within grid integration library Updated surrogates API and examples to support Keras 3, with backwards compatibility for older formats such as TensorFlow SavedModel (TFSM) Updated costing base dictionary to include the 2023 cost year index value Updated ProcessBlock to include information on the constructing block class Updated Flowsheet Visualizer to allow visualize() method to return value and functions Bug Fixes Fixed bug in the Modular Property Framework that would cause errors when trying to use phase-based material balances with phase equilibria. Fixed bug in Modular Properties Framework that caused errors when initializing models with non-vapor-liquid phase equilibria. Fixed typos flagged by June update to crate-ci/typos and removed DMF-related exceptions Minor corrections of units of measurement handling in power plant waste/transport costing expressions, control volume material holdup expressions, and BTX property package parameters Fixed throwing >7500 numpy deprecation warnings by replacing scalar value assignment with element extraction and item iteration calls Testing and Robustness Migrated slow tests (>10s) to integration, impacting test coverage but also yielding a nearly 30% decrease in local test runtime Pinned pint to avoid issues with older supported Python versions Pinned codecov versions to avoid tokenless upload behavior with latest version Bumped extensions to version 3.4.2 to allow pointing to non-standard install location Deprecations and Removals Python 3.8 is no longer supported. The supported Python versions are 3.9 through 3.12 The Data Management Framework (DMF) is no longer supported. Importing idaes.core.dmf will cause a deprecation warning to be displayed until the next release The SOFC Keras surrogates have been removed. The current version of the SOFC surrogate model in the examples repository is a PySMO Kriging model.

AS↗

Consolidated Hydropower Data Repository: Value and Opportunities

Hydropower is one of several types of generating assets that provides energy, capacity, and services to electric power systems. It does so under rubrics and objectives—market driven and regulated, internal and external to asset and fleet owners—that address reliability, cost, price, and, increasingly, flexibility of output. The aggregation of data from multiple hydropower units can provide insights into asset operations and maintenance practices and needs and assist in meeting hydropower objectives. This paper examines the concept and potential benefits of aggregating hydropower asset data—primarily supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) information—with examples of insights developed from data aggregated by the Hydropower Research Institute (HRI). Data aggregation as discussed herein, and as implemented by the HRI, extends beyond multiple units in a powerhouse and beyond multiple hydropower facilities in an electric utility fleet or river system. Examples of research and analytics from such aggregated datasets range from unit load dependency analyses to modeling sensor measurements to detect and diagnose anomalies in assets. These examples showed the benefits of utilizing the entire dataset for insights into how the sensor layout of a single unit or set of units compares to the hydropower industry overall. Such insights include whether additional sensors are needed to complete analyses or to make decisions. In addition, utilizing multiple sensors of the same kind within a unit can provide an indication of possible current or upcoming problems with equipment. Although other analyses are possible, their use requires the development of complex models and, potentially, access to types of data that are currently not included with the example dataset used in this study. However, the examples studied herein confirmed the value of data aggregation in the fleet and unit contexts, and the value extends beyond multiple units in a powerhouse and beyond multiple hydropower facilities in an electric utility fleet or river system. The assessments also provided insights into potential extensions to the data aggregation concept that could further add to their value to the hydropower community, and these are included in this document as a set of recommendations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Dynamic, Adaptive, Systems and Materials: Complex, Simple and Emergent Behaviors

This program has been funded by DoE/BES for twenty years. It has moved into and out of various subjects as it has developed, but it has retained its focus on complexity and complex systems. The project has evolved in the following way: Self-Assembly and Biomimetic Self-Assembly: All self-assembling systems depend upon a minimum of two types of interaction: a repulsion and an attraction. For the familiar molecular systems, attractive interactions are typically hydrogen bonds and electrostatic interactions. Repulsive interactions include steric effects, hydrophobic effects (in biological systems), and charge-charge repulsion. We have expanded this repertoire to include surface interactions, magnetic interactions, and others. I list these systems in the order in which we have explored them: i) A key emphasis in current work is in understanding how the movement of ions in a magnetic field (the Lorentz effect) interacts with catalytic systems. We have demonstrated that an acceleration in rate of reduction of CO 2 to CO can be accomplished by applying an external magnetic field. This acceleration is largely due to the application of the Lorentz effect on mass transport at the catalyst’s surface. ii) We have also extensively explored the influence of electrostatics, as exhibited in self-assembling systems, by tribocharging. iii) Another key system involves surface tension effects; examples include interactions between heavy particles floating at a liquid-air interface, and interacting by changes in surface area; interactions of bubbles and bubble rafts, behaviors of bubble trains in microfluidic networks, and behaviors of microorganisms in constraining environments. iv) This work has intentionally de-emphasized biological systems; but it does include some work on protein-ligand interactions and interactions among microorganisms. v) We have also explored applications of some of these effects, these explorations include bubble rafts as diffraction gratings, exploration of the structures that can be obtained by tribocharging and uses of these structures in exploring nucleation and melting of crystals. vi) Although not a major focus of this work, several other topics have emerged and offer opportunities for future work. These include the behavior of bubble trains and bubble rafts in microfluidic systems. A particularly interesting example is the formation of bubble trains that repeat in the alteration of large and small bubbles according to rules we do not presently understand, but are uniquely large-period oscillating systems. These systems offer a new route into understanding the instabilities of the type represented by oscillations. vii) We have also begun exploratory projects on magnetic levitation (especially to determine molecular density), and information storage (in molecules). Magnetic Levitation: Self-assembling and biomimetic systems require both attraction and repulsion. We have used electrostatics (tribocharging), interfacial free-energies (surface tension and related forces) and others. Potential uses include reconfigurable diffraction gratings and liquid lenses; exploration of mechanisms in tribocharging; tunneling in EGaIn junctions; and bubble trains (especially in micro-fluidic systems). Examples of systems representing these topics is included in the following papers: Complexity: Disks rotating at a water-air interface; Benard-Marangoni effects; Vortex-Crystals from spinning magnetic disks (Marangoni effects); EGaIn Electrode to study quantum tunneling; Self-Assembly of electrostatically-charged metallic spheres (electrets); Dynamically reconfigurable lens; Using computational designs of ligands for enzymes; Electrostatic self-assembly by tribocharging; Monodisperse bubble trains in microchannel systems; Inverted dripping faucet; Flames; Printing of micro-organisms to regenerate the “ink” of printing device; Using micro-organisms to move loads (“microoxen”); Motion of bacterial swarms near surfaces; Making monodisperse particles in microfluidic systems; Coding/decoding of information stored in droplet trains in microfluidic networks; Magnetic levitation; and Information storage. i) Tribocharging. The change in focus of this work on electrets from the fundamentals of charging to applications of these materials in studying self-assembly using electrostatic interactions. ii) Bubbles in Microchannels. The realization that systems of bubbles in microchannels represented a major opportunity to study complexity in a very tractable system, and the development of a semi-quantitative theory of this subject. iii) Flames. The growth of “flames” remains an exploratory subject for the research, although their currently relatively little active work involving it ongoing. iv) Systems with Microorganisms. The removal of work in biological systems from this project. Based on work supported in this program, we now have a significant project on the development of microfluidic tools for studying C. elegans (a nematode), but this work was not appropriate for a program focused on complexity, and we developed separate support for it. (It is, however, an example of successful seeding of a new area by BES.) The work on electrets has gone through a period in which a part of the program was the subject of a MURI; the focus of this work was to develop materials that did not charge electrostatically on friction or contact. The MURI is now over, and the work on dynamic self-assembly (supported by BES) is the major focus. “Flames” has also enjoyed synergistic support, in terms of a project supported by DARPA on flame suppression (in the absence of extinguishing agents, using acoustic and electrostatic interactions). This work was helpful in understanding some of the basics of flames, but is entirely distinct from the BES focus in complexity. A growing interest is in the Lorentz effect. The Lorentz effect is the force exerted on charged particles (electrons, ions, charged molecules) when they move through a perpendicular magnetic field. The Lorentz effect is almost ubiquitous in modern technology: examples of applications include electric motors, dynamos, cathode ray tubes, many batteries, and most systems that control electrical currents with magnetic forces. We have begun to explore the Lorentz effect in electrochemical systems and heterogeneous catalytic systems involving charged organic species and inorganic ions. This work is still at an early stage, but initial studies that Lorentz effects can be large when ions move through magnetic fields, or magnetic fields move in the presence of ions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Determining rules for closing customer service centers: A public utility company's fuzzy decision

In the present work, we consider the general problem of knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. A commonly used method is to learn by examples. We observe how the expert solves specific cases and from this infer some rules by which the decision was made. Unique to this work is the fuzzy set representation of the conditions or attributes upon which the decision make may base his fuzzy set decision. From our examples, we infer certain and possible rules containing fuzzy terms. It should be stressed that the procedure determines how closely the expert follows the conditions under consideration in making his decision. We offer two examples pertaining to the possible decision to close a customer service center of a public utility company. In the first example, the decision maker does not follow too closely the conditions. In the second example, the conditions are much more relevant to the decision of the expert.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

Wire Detection Algorithms for Navigation

In this research we addressed the problem of obstacle detection for low altitude rotorcraft flight. In particular, the problem of detecting thin wires in the presence of image clutter and noise was studied. Wires present a serious hazard to rotorcrafts. Since they are very thin, their detection early enough so that the pilot has enough time to take evasive action is difficult, as their images can be less than one or two pixels wide. Two approaches were explored for this purpose. The first approach involved a technique for sub-pixel edge detection and subsequent post processing, in order to reduce the false alarms. After reviewing the line detection literature, an algorithm for sub-pixel edge detection proposed by Steger was identified as having good potential to solve the considered task. The algorithm was tested using a set of images synthetically generated by combining real outdoor images with computer generated wire images. The performance of the algorithm was evaluated both, at the pixel and the wire levels. It was observed that the algorithm performs well, provided that the wires are not too thin (or distant) and that some post processing is performed to remove false alarms due to clutter. The second approach involved the use of an example-based learning scheme namely, Support Vector Machines. The purpose of this approach was to explore the feasibility of an example-based learning based approach for the task of detecting wires from their images. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have emerged as a promising pattern classification tool and have been used in various applications. It was found that this approach is not suitable for very thin wires and of course, not suitable at all for sub-pixel thick wires. High dimensionality of the data as such does not present a major problem for SVMs. However it is desirable to have a large number of training examples especially for high dimensional data. The main difficulty in using SVMs (or any other example-based learning method) is the need for a very good set of positive and negative examples since the performance depends on the quality of the training set.

Kasturi, Rangachar↗

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Butler, James J.↗

NASA/ESMD Analogue Mission Plans

A viewgraph presentation exploring Earth and its analogues is shown. The topics include: 1) ESMD Goals for the Use of Earth Analogues; 2) Stakeholders Summary; 3) Issues with Current Analogue Situation; 4) Current state of Analogues; 5) External Implementation Plan (Second Step); 6) Recent Progress in Utilizing Analogues; 7) Website Layout Example-Home Page; 8) Website Layout Example-Analogue Site; 9) Website Layout Example-Analogue Mission; 10) Objectives of ARDIG Analog Initiatives; 11) Future Plans; 12) Example: Cold-Trap Sample Return; 13) Example: Site Characterization Matrix; 14) Integrated Analogue Studies-Prerequisites for Human Exploration; and 15) Rating Scale Definitions.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

Training Software in Artificial-Intelligence Computing Techniques

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Toolkit is a computer program for training scientists, engineers, and university students in three soft-computing techniques (fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms) used in artificial-intelligence applications. The program promotes an easily understandable tutorial interface, including an interactive graphical component through which the user can gain hands-on experience in soft-computing techniques applied to realistic example problems. The tutorial provides step-by-step instructions on the workings of soft-computing technology, whereas the hands-on examples allow interaction and reinforcement of the techniques explained throughout the tutorial. In the fuzzy-logic example, a user can interact with a robot and an obstacle course to verify how fuzzy logic is used to command a rover traverse from an arbitrary start to the goal location. For the genetic algorithm example, the problem is to determine the minimum-length path for visiting a user-chosen set of planets in the solar system. For the neural-network example, the problem is to decide, on the basis of input data on physical characteristics, whether a person is a man, woman, or child. The AI Toolkit is compatible with the Windows 95,98, ME, NT 4.0, 2000, and XP operating systems. A computer having a processor speed of at least 300 MHz, and random-access memory of at least 56MB is recommended for optimal performance. The program can be run on a slower computer having less memory, but some functions may not be executed properly.

Howard, Ayanna↗

Vortobots

The term vortobots denotes proposed swimming robots that would have dimensions as small as micrometers or even nanometers and that would move in swarms through fluids by generating and exploiting vortices in a cooperative manner. Vortobots were conceived as means of exploring confined or otherwise inaccessible fluid environments: they are expected to be especially attractive for biomedical uses like examining the interiors of blood vessels. The main advantage of the vortobot concept, relative to other concepts for swimming microscopic robots, is that the mechanisms for locomotion would be relatively simple and, therefore, could be miniaturized more easily. For example, only a simple spinning paddle would be required to generate a vortex around a vortobot (see Figure 1). The difficulty is that a smart swarming and cooperative control algorithm would be necessary for purposeful locomotion. This necessity arises because, as a consequence of basic principles of vortex dynamics, an isolated single vortex cannot move by itself because its induced flow at the center is zero; however, a vortex can move other vortices by the induced flow. By cleverly adjusting the strength and sign of each member in a group of vortices, the group can achieve net translational motion in the preferred direction through cooperation. Figure 2 presents two simple examples that serve to illustrate the principle of cooperative motion of vortobots. For the sake of simplicity, these examples are based on an idealized two-dimensional potential flow of an inviscid, incompressible liquid. The example of the upper part of the figure is of two vortices of equal magnitude and opposite sign. The centers of the vortices would move along parallel paths. The example of the lower part of the figure is of two vortices of the same magnitude and sign. In this case, both vortices would move in a circle in diametrically opposite positions. More complex motions can be obtained by introducing more vortices (or pairs of vortices) and choosing different vortex strengths and orientations.

Park, Han↗

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

Efficient Active Learning for New Domains

The promise of active learning is to reduce the number of labeled examples required by supervised machine learning algorithms. The largest potential benefits lie in entirely new domains, for which no labeled examples yet exist. Yet to date, most active learning studies are retroactive and demonstrate the benefits that could have been gained if active learning had been used. What are the barriers to true adoption and utilization of active learning? We focus on two: (1) the cold start or class discovery problem, in which active learning methods may struggle to make progress with zero labeled examples, and (2) the cost of having the classifier in the loop to select the next example to be labeled. We assess different active learning approaches in the context of these two barriers and conclude with recommendations for how to employ active learning in new domains. As an example, we report on the use of active learning on a large, novel data set of Mars surface images.

Lu, Steven↗

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗