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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Divergent responses of historic rain-on-snow flood extremes to a warmer climate

Global warming is altering flood risks induced by rain-on-snow events. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how rain-on-snow induced extreme floods could be altered with warming. Here, storyline analyses using a kilometer-scale land surface model reveal diverse responses of four historically-impactful, decision-relevant rain-on-snow induced extreme flood events over the contiguous U.S. to warming, due to alterations in their water budgets. For the 2017-Feb California floods, runoff first increases and then decreases with warming, peaking under the +3 K scenario, while runoff of the 2017-Jan California floods increases monotonically by ~53%/K. Contrastingly, runoff of the 1996-Jan Mid-Atlantic floods decreases gradually with warming. Despite these differences, warming generally shifts flood-generating regimes along elevation profiles. High elevations could experience notably increased runoff, while low elevations encounter a shift from rain-on-snow-driven to rainfall-dominated runoff. These findings underscore the need for flood control planning to quantify region- and elevation-specific changes in rain-on-snow events in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather

Abstract Regional climate models can be used to examine how past weather events might unfold under different climate conditions by simulating analogue versions of those events with modified thermodynamic conditions (i.e., warming signals). Here, we apply this approach by dynamically downscaling a 40-year sequence of past weather from 1980–2019 driven by atmospheric re-analysis, and then repeating this 40-year sequence a total of 8 times using a range of time-evolving thermodynamic warming signals that follow 4 80-year future warming trajectories from 2020–2099. Warming signals follow two emission scenarios (SSP585 and SSP245) and are derived from two groups of global climate models based on whether they exhibit relatively high or low climate sensitivity. The resulting dataset, which contains 25 hourly and over 200 3-hourly variables at 12 km spatial resolution, can be used to examine a plausible range of future climate conditions in direct reference to previously observed weather and enables a systematic exploration of the ways in which thermodynamic change influences the characteristics of historical extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nucleosynthesis in outflows of compact objects and detection prospects of associated kilonovae

ABSTRACT We perform a comparative analysis of nucleosynthesis yields from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers, and core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) with the goal of determining which are the most dominant sources of r-process enrichment observed in stars. We find that BNS and BHNS binaries may eject similar mass distributions of robust r-process nuclei post-merger (up to third peak and actinides, A ∼ 200−240), after accounting for the volumetric event rates. Magnetorotational (MR) CCSNe likely undergo a weak r-process (up to A ∼ 140) and contribute to the production of light element primary process (LEPP) nuclei, whereas typical thermal, neutrino-driven CCSNe only synthesize up to first r-process peak nuclei (A ∼ 80−90). We also find that the upper limit to the rate of MR CCSNe is $\lesssim 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ the rate of typical thermal CCSNe; if the rate was higher, then weak r-process nuclei would be overproduced. Although the largest uncertainty is from the volumetric event rate, the prospects are encouraging for confirming these rates in the next few years with upcoming surveys. Using a simple model to estimate the resulting kilonova light curve from mergers and our set of fiducial merger parameters, we predict that ∼7 BNS and ∼2 BHNS events will be detectable per year by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (LSST), with prior gravitational wave (GW) triggers.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ekman-driven salt transport as a key mechanism for open-ocean polynya formation at Maud Rise

Open-ocean polynyas formed over the Maud Rise, in the Weddell Sea, during the winters of 2016–2017. Such polynyas are rare events in the Southern Ocean and are associated with deep convection, affecting regional carbon and heat budgets. Using an ocean state estimate, we found that during 2017, early sea ice melting occurred in response to enhanced vertical mixing of heat, which was accompanied by mixing of salt. The melting sea ice compensated for the vertically mixed salt, resulting in a net buoyancy gain. An additional salt input was then necessary to destabilize the upper ocean. This came from a hitherto unexplored polynya-formation mechanism: an Ekman transport of salt across a jet girdling the northern flank of the Maud Rise. Such transport was driven by intensified eastward surface stresses during 2015–2018. Our results illustrate how highly localized interactions between wind, ocean flow and topography can trigger polynya formation in the open Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Discrete Event Simulation-Based Timeline Validation Using R2U2

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM), the top-level software control system in a distributed, hierarchical Autonomous System Management Architecture is, like most modern spacecraft software control systems, heavily data-driven. For example, schedules (timelines) will be developed on the ground and, due to the high degree of autonomy, contain complex procedures involving conditional branching, variable timing, and resource contention resolution. In order to verify that an uploaded timeline will function correctly, it is necessary to explore the feasible set of possible executions. While it is possible to test a timeline using a mission simulation, the complexity of the system and duration of a timeline limits the number of trials and therefore the test coverage. To address this problem, the VSM team is using a discrete event system model that can rapidly generate from a timeline sets of event sequences using Monte Carlo techniques. To achieve rapid and trustworthy checking of the event sequences, we use an offline version of the runtime model checking tool R2U2. This presentation describes the approach the VSM team is using to implement the discrete event simulation and evaluate event sequences using R2U2. The presentation will discuss: 1. Description of the timelines by VSM in the context of VSM operations 2. Expansion of a timeline into a sequence of atomic events 3. Adjustment, in the Monte Carlo environment, of an event sequence to account for uncertainty, external events, and failures 4. Definition of R2U2 input and mission-time linear temporal logic files 5. Generation and use of R2U2 verdict sequences 6. Lessons learned and future work

Verification↗
DOE OSTI2021

Active mechanisorption driven by pumping cassettes

Pumping macrocycles onto surfaces Numerous chemical processes, ranging from water purification to catalysis, involve sorption of small molecules onto surfaces. Typically, spontaneous attractive interactions favor the binding event. Feng et al . report a mechanisorption process that requires redox manipulations to pump macrocycles from bulk solution onto axles immobilized on a metal-organic framework. The resulting rotaxanes store energy through nonequilibrium charge concentration in their mechanical bonds. Ultimately, the technique could also prove useful for actively partitioning compounds with particular functionality between surface and bulk environments. —JSY

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Celeritas R&D Report: Accelerating Geant4

Celeritas is a new Monte Carlo (MC) detector simulation code designed for computationally intensive applications on high-performance heterogeneous architectures. In the past two years Celeritas has advanced from prototyping a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-based single physics model in infinite medium to implementing a full set of electromagnetic (EM) physics processes in complex geometries. The current release of Celeritas, version 0.4, has incorporated full device-based navigation, an event loop in the presence of magnetic fields, and detector hit scoring. New functionality incorporates a scheduler to offload electromagnetic physics to the GPU within a Geant4-driven simulation, enabling straightforward integration of Celeritas into the high energy physics (HEP) experimental frameworks CMSSW and ATLAS FullSimLight. On the Perlmutter supercomputer, Celeritas performs EM physics between 3× and 18× faster using the machine’s Nvidia GPUs compared to using only CPUs, corresponding to an electrical power efficiency up to a factor of 5. When running a multithreaded Geant4 ATLAS test beam application with full hadronic physics, using Celeritas to accelerate the EM physics results in an overall simulation speedup of 1.7–2.2× on GPU and 1.2× on CPU. In a CMS test application using tt¯ events and the prototype Run 4 configuration, compared to Geant4 CPU, Celeritas with a Nvidia A100 improves overall throughput up to a factor of 2.7× but cannot be efficiently shared with more than 8 cores.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2025

First-ever deployment of a SiPM-on-tile calorimeter in a collider: a parasitic test with 200 GeV p p collisions at RHIC.

We describe the testing of a prototype SiPM-on-tile iron-scintillator calorimeter at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) during its 200 GeV p p run in 2024. The prototype, measuring 20 × 20 cm 2 and 24 radiation lengths in depth, was positioned in the STAR experimental hall, approximately 8 m from the interaction point and 65 cm from the beam line, covering a pseudorapidity range of about 3.1 < η < 3.4. By using the dark current of a reference SiPM as a radiation monitor, we estimate that the prototype was exposed to a fluence of about 10 10 1-MeV n eq /cm 2 . Channel-by-channel calibration was performed in a data-driven way with the signature from minimum-ionizing particles during beam-on conditions. AGeant4 detector simulation, with inputs from thePythia8 event generator, describes measurements of energy spectra and hit multiplicities reasonably well. These results mark the first deployment, commissioning, calibration, and long-term operation of a SiPM-on-tile calorimeter in a collider environment. This experimental campaign will guide detector designs and operational strategies for the ePIC detector at the future EIC, as well as other applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two Marine Heatwave (MHW) Variants under a Basinwide MHW Conditioning Mode in the North Pacific and Their Atlantic Associations

Abstract During 2013–16 and 2018–22, marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the North Pacific, exhibiting similar extensive coverage, lengthy duration, and significant intensity but with different warming centers. The warming center of the 2013–16 event was in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), while the 2018–22 event had warming centers in both the GOA and the coast of Japan (COJ). Our observational analysis indicates that these two events can be considered as two MHW variants induced by a basinwide MHW conditioning mode in the North Pacific. Both variants were driven thermodynamically by atmospheric wave trains propagating from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, within the conditioning mode. The origin and propagating path of these wave trains play a crucial role in determining the specific type of MHW variant. When a stronger wave train originates from the tropical central (western) Pacific, it leads to the GOA (COJ) variant. The cross-basin nature of the wave trains enables the two MHW variants to be accompanied by a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic but with opposite phases. The association of these two MHW variants with the Atlantic Ocean also manifests in the decadal variations of their occurrence. Both variants tend to occur more frequently during the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation but less so during the negative phase. This study underscores the importance of cross-basin associations between the North Pacific and North Atlantic in shaping the dynamics of North Pacific MHWs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 Earthquake in Northeastern Utah, United States: An Archetypal Continental Mantle Event

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 earthquake in northeastern Utah, United States, had a focal depth 68 km beneath sea level, which is ∼20–25 km greater than estimates of local crustal thickness, making it a rare example of a continental mantle earthquake (CME). The focal depth is well resolved from arrival-time inversion (nearest station ∼13 km away) and moment tensor inversion of regional waveforms. Similar to other CMEs in the Intermountain West, there were no obvious aftershocks or foreshocks, and the waveforms were enriched in high-frequency energy. Spectral modeling gives a stress drop of ∼80 MPa and a radiation efficiency of ∼0.08, albeit with large uncertainties. The high stress drop and low radiation efficiency are consistent with a dissipative source process such as thermal runaway. Also similar to previous Intermountain West CMEs, the event occurred along the boundary of the Archean Wyoming craton, where pressure–temperature conditions favor ductile deformation. We hypothesize that edge-driven or regional-scale mantle convection produces increased strain rates near the craton boundary that make either conventional brittle failure or thermal runaway feasible at relatively high pressure–temperature conditions. High conductivity inferred around the edge of the craton may suggest that fluids also contribute to CME occurrence.

Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗
NASA NTRS2000

Recent Changes in Tropospheric Ozone in the Tropics

This paper presents a detailed characterization of tropical tropospheric column ozone variability on time scales varying from a few days to a solar cycle. The study is based on more than 20 years (1979 to the present) of tropospheric column ozone time series derived from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method using total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data. Results indicate three distinct regions in the tropics with distinctly three different zonal characteristics related to seasonal, interannual and solar variabilities. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Tropospheric column ozone in the Atlantic region peaks at about the same time (September-October) from 20 N to 20 S. The amplitude of the annual cycle, however, varies from about 3 to 6 Dobson unit (DU) from north to south of the equator. In comparison, the annual cycle in both the eastern and western Pacific is generally week and the phase varies from peak values in March and April in the northern hemisphere to September and October in the southern hemisphere. The interannual pattern in the three regions are also very different. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi biennial oscillation in the tropospheric column ozone which is out of phase with the stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region caused by high pollution and high concentration of ozone producing precursors. The observed pattern, however, does not seem to be related to the interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead, it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events, there is anomalously low ozone in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific indicating the effects of convectively driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in tropospheric column ozone in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale forest fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Total Dust Deposition Flux During Precipitation in Toyama, Japan, in the Spring of 2009: A Sensitivity Analysis with the NASA GEOS-5 Model

We compared the observed total dust deposition fluxes during precipitation (TDP) mainly at Toyama in Japan during the period January - April 2009 with results available from four NASA GEOS-5 global model experiments. The modeled results were obtained from three previous experiments and carried out in one experiment, which were all driven by assimilated meteorology and simulating aerosol distributions for the time period. We focus mainly on the observations of two distinct TDP events, which were reported in Osada et al. (2011), at Toyama, Japan, in February (Event B) and March 2009 (Event C). Although all of our GEOS-5 simulations captured aspects of the observed TDP, we found that our low horizontal spatial resolution control experiment performed generally the worst. The other three experiments were run at a higher spatial resolution, with the first differing only in that respect from the control, the second adding imposed a prescribed corrected precipitation product, and the final experiment adding as well assimilation of aerosol optical depth based on MODIS observations. During Event C, the increased horizontal resolution could increase TDP with precipitation increase. There was no significant improvement, however, due to the imposition of the corrected precipitation product. The simulation that incorporated aerosol data assimilation performed was by far the best for this event, but even so could only reproduce less than half of the observed TDP despite the significantly increased atmospheric dust mass concentrations. All three of the high spatial resolution experiments had higher simulated precipitation at Toyama than was observed and that in the lower resolution control run. During Event B, the aerosol data assimilation run did not perform appreciably better than the other higher resolution simulations, suggesting that upstream conditions (i.e., upstream cloudiness), or vertical or horizontal misplacement of the dust plume did not allow for significant improvement in the simulated aerosol distributions. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of observed hourly precipitation and surface particulate mass concentration data suggests that the observed TDP during Event B was highly dependent on short periods of weak precipitation correlated with elevated dust surface concentrations, important details possibly not captured well in a current global model.

Dust; Wet deposition; Numerical modeling; Japan; P↗
NASA NTRS2021

X-ray Quasi-Periodic Eruptions from Two Previously Quiescent Galaxies

Quasi-Periodic Eruptions (QPEs) are extreme high-amplitude bursts of X-ray radiation recurring every few hours and originating near the central supermassive black holes in galactic nuclei. It is currently unknown what triggers these events, how long they last and how they are connected to the physical properties of the inner accretion flows. Previously, only two such sources were known, found either serendipitously or in archival data, with emission lines in their optical spectra classifying their nuclei as hosting an actively accreting supermassive black hole. Here we present the detection of QPEs in two further galaxies, obtained with a blind and systematic search over half of the X-ray sky. The optical spectra of these galaxies show no signature of black hole activity, indicating that a pre-existing accretion flow typical of active nuclei is not required to trigger these events. Indeed, the periods, amplitudes and profiles of the newly discovered QPEs are inconsistent with current models that invoke radiation-pressure driven accretion disk instabilities. Instead, QPEs might be driven by an orbiting compact object. Furthermore, their observed properties require the mass of the secondary object to be much smaller than the main body and future X-ray observations may constrain possible changes in the period due to orbital evolution. This scenario could make QPEs a viable candidate for the electromagnetic counterparts of the so-called extreme mass ratio inspirals, with considerable implications for multi-messenger astrophysics and cosmology.

R Arcodia↗
NASA NTRS2022

Extreme Energetic Particle Events By Superflare-Associated CMES From Solar-Like Stars

Discovery of frequent superflares on active cool stars opened a new avenue in understanding the properties of eruptive events and their impact on exoplanetary environments. Solar data suggest that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) should be associated with superflares on active solar-like planet hosts and produce solar/stellar energetic particle (SEP/StEP) events. Here, we apply the 2D Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere model to simulate the SEPs accelerated via CME-driven shocks from the Sun and young solar-like stars. We derive the scaling of SEP fluence and hardness of energy spectra with CME speed and associated flare energy. These results have crucial implications for the prebiotic chemistry and expected atmospheric biosignatures from young rocky exoplanets as well as the chemistry and isotopic composition of circumstellar disks around infant solar-like stars.

Junxiang Hu↗
DOE OSTI2018

Process-Specific Contributions to Anomalous Java Mixed Layer Cooling During Positive IOD Events

Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events first appear in the seasonal upwelling zone along the southern coast of Java during May–July. The evolution of anomalous SSTs in this coastal region is analyzed by computing a temperature budget using output from a strongly eddy-active ocean general circulation model. The seasonal cooling south of Java in May–July is driven by a reduction in incoming shortwave radiation and by vertical mixing, consistent with earlier studies in the region; however, the model budget also shows an advective contribution that drives anomalous cooling at the onset of pIOD events. To identify which process(es) are responsible for the anomalous advective cooling during pIOD events, a novel process index regression method is used to estimate the contributions of wind stress, equatorial Kelvin waves, mesoscale eddies, and Lombok Strait flow to anomalous cooling south of Java. Using this method, wind stress forcing along the west coast of Sumatra is found to make the most substantial contribution to anomalous cooling south of Java, with lesser contributions from equatorially sourced Kelvin waves and local wind stress. Mesoscale eddies redistribute heat from the Lombok Strait outflow, and have an anomalous warming effect on the eastern side of the upwelling region. The process-specific temperature budget south of Java highlights the importance of wind stress forcing west of Sumatra relative to equatorial and local forcing, and explains most of the mixed layer temperature anomaly evolution associated with advection during pIOD events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗