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At least 793 records · Page 44

A rigorous physics-based enhanced parameter estimation (EPE) methodology for calibration of building energy simulations

Buildings rarely perform as designed/simulated and there are numerous tangible benefits if this gap is reconciled. A new scientifically rigorous yet pragmatic methodology for calibrating building energy simulations - called Enhanced Parameter Estimation (EPE) - is proposed that allows physically relevant parameter estimation rather than a blind force-fit to energy use data. Starting with a rapidly created simulation model, calibration is performed in two stages: (a) building shell calibration with the HVAC system replaced by an ideal system that meets the loads (b) HVAC system calibration with the building shell and all internal loads replaced by a box with only process loads. In the first stage, EPE identifies a small number of high-level heat flows in the energy balance, calculates them with specifically tailored individual driving functions, introduces physically significant parameters to best accomplish energy balance, and, estimates the parameters and their uncertainty bounds. Calibration is thus done with corrective heat flows without any arbitrary tuning of input parameters. Calibration accuracy is enhanced by machine learning of the residual errors. The EPE methodology is demonstrated by means of: a synthetic building and an actual 75,000 sq. ft. building in Pennsylvania. Future work needed for widespread application is discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Limiting masses and radii of neutron stars and their implications

We combine the equation of state of dense matter up to twice nuclear saturation density 𝑛 sat obtained using chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT) and recent observations of neutron stars to gain insights about the high-density matter encountered in their cores. A key element in our study is the recent Bayesian analysis of correlated EFT truncation errors based on order-by-order calculations up to next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order in the 𝜒⁢EFT expansion. We refine the bounds on the maximum mass imposed by causality at high densities and provide stringent limits on the maximum and minimum radii of ∼1.4M ⊙ and ∼2.0M ⊙ stars. Including 𝜒⁢EFT predictions from 𝑛sat to 2𝑛 sat reduces the permitted ranges of the radius of a ~1.4M ⊙ star, 𝑅 1.4 , by ∼3.5km. If observations indicate 𝑅 1.4 < 11.2km, then our study implies that either the squared speed of sound 𝑐$^{2}_{𝑠}$ > 1/2 for densities above 2𝑛 sat or that 𝜒⁢EFT breaks down below 2𝑛 sat . Here, we also comment on the nature of the secondary compact object in GW190814 with mass ≃ 2.6M ⊙ and discuss the implications of massive neutron stars > 2.1⁢M ⊙ ⁡(2.6M ⊙ ) in future radio and gravitational-wave searches. Some form of strongly interacting matter with 𝑐$^{2}_{𝑠}$ > 0.35⁢(0.55) must be realized in the cores of such massive neutron stars. In the absence of phase transitions below 2𝑛 sat , the small tidal deformability inferred from GW170817 lends support for the relatively small pressure predicted by 𝜒⁢EFT for the baryon density 𝑛 B in the range 1–2𝑛 sat . Together they imply that the rapid stiffening required to support a high maximum mass should occur only when 𝑛 B ≳ 1.5–1.8 𝑛 sat .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Error control techniques for satellite and space communications

During the period June 1, 1986 through November 30, 1986, progress was made in the following areas: undetected error probability and throughput analysis of a concatenated coding scheme; capacity and cutoff rate analysis of concatenated codes; concatenated codes using bandwidth efficient trellis inner codes; bounds on the minimum free Euclidean distance of bandwidth efficient trellis codes; and construction of multidimensional bandwidth efficient trellis codes for use as inner codes in a concatenated coding system.

Costello, Daniel J., Jr.↗

Low-earth-orbit effects on strength of glasses

The effects of a 5.8-y exposure to low-earth-orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of five commercial glasses and a low-expansion-coefficient glass-ceramic have been examined. The radiation components of the earth-orbit environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. Statistical problems arising from the low frequency of micrometeorite or space debris impacts upon the samples precluded statistically valid measurement of impacted sample strengths. Upper bounds for the magnitude of the impact event damage upon the strengths for impacted samples have been determined.

Wiedlocher, David E.↗

Complex Correlation Calculation of e-H Total Cross Sections

Calculation of e-H total and elastic partial wave cross sections is being carried out using the complex correlation variational T-matrix method. In this preliminary study, elastic partial wave phase shifts are calculated with the correlation functions which are confined to be real. In that case the method reduces to the conventional optical potential approach with projection operators. The number of terms in the Hylleraas-type wave function for the S phase shifts is 95 while for the S it is 56, except for k=0.8 where it is 84. Our results, which are rigorous lower bounds, are given. They are seen to be in general agreement with those of Schwartz, but they are of 0 greater accuracy and outside of his error limits for k=0.3 and 0.4 for S. The main aim of this approach' is the application to higher energy scattering. By virtue of the complex correlation functions, the T matrix is not unitary so that elastic and total scattering cross sections are independent of each other. Our results will be compared specifically with those of Bray and Stelbovics.

Bhatia, A. K.↗

Indirect M-MRAC for Systems with Time Varying Parameters and Bounded Disturbances

The paper presents a prediction-identification model based adaptive control method for uncertain systems with time varying parameters in the presence of bounded external disturbances. The method guarantees desired tracking performance for the system s state and input signals. This is achieved by feeding back the state prediction error to the identification model. It is shown that the desired closed-loop properties are obtained with fast adaptation when the error feedback gain is selected proportional to the square root of the adaptation rate. The theoretical findings are confirmed via a simulation example.

Stepanyan, Vahram↗

Isochronous and period-doubling diagrams for symplectic maps of the plane

Symplectic mappings of the plane serve as key models for exploring the fundamental nature of complex behavior in nonlinear systems. Central to this exploration is the effective visualization of stability regimes, which enables the interpretation of how systems evolve under varying conditions. While the area-preserving quadratic Hénon map has received significant theoretical attention, a comprehensive description of its mixed parameter-space dynamics remain lacking. This limitation arises from early attempts to reduce the full two-dimensional phase space to a one-dimensional projection, a simplification that resulted in the loss of important dynamical features. Consequently, there is a clear need for a more thorough understanding of the underlying qualitative aspects. This paper aims to address this gap by revisiting the foundational concepts of reversibility and associated symmetries, first explored in the early works of G.D. Birkhoff. We extend the original framework proposed by Hénon by adding a period-doubling diagram to his isochronous diagram, which allows to represents the system’s bifurcations and the groups of symmetric periodic orbits that emerge in typical bifurcations of the fixed point. A qualitative and quantitative explanation of the main features of the region of parameters with bounded motion is provided, along with the application of this technique to other symplectic mappings, including cases of multiple reversibility. Modern chaos indicators, such as the Reversibility Error Method (REM) and the Generalized Alignment Index (GALI), are employed to distinguish between various dynamical regimes in the mixed space of variables and parameters. These tools prove effective in differentiating regular and chaotic dynamics, as well as in identifying twistless orbits and their associated bifurcations. Additionally, we discuss the application of these methods to real-world problems, such as visualizing dynamic aperture in accelerator physics, where our findings have direct relevance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Analysis of the spectral vanishing viscosity method for periodic conservation laws

The convergence of the spectral vanishing method for both the spectral and pseudospectral discretizations of the inviscid Burgers' equation is analyzed. It is proven that this kind of vanishing viscosity is responsible for a spectral decay of those Fourier coefficients located toward the end of the computed spectrum; consequently, the discretization error is shown to be spectrally small independent of whether the underlying solution is smooth or not. This in turn implies that the numerical solution remains uniformly bounded and convergence follows by compensated compactness arguments.

Maday, Yvon↗

Frame synchronization for a channel with different data rates

In some communication links, different data rates are used at different times on the same channel and each is assigned a separate frame synchronization (sync) marker. The frame search is completed within a finite number of frame intervals once both phase-lock and bit-sync are achieved because the incoming data rate can change. The probability of failure to frame-lock, and an upper bound of probability of false frame-lock in a frame search mode are derived for a communication link with a 10 to the -5th bit error probability. The probability of failure to detect data-rate change and the probability of false detection of data-rate change in a frame-lock mode are discussed. In a frame-lock mode, the probability of failure to detect data-rate change and probability detection of data-rate change an equal to 4.96 x 10 to the -12th. A frame-lock device can be used for the Space Station Freedom Ku-band return link.

Kwon, Hyuck M.↗

Wavefront Controls for a Large Submillimeter-Wave Observatory

The 25-m aperture Cornell Caltech Atacama Telescope (CCAT) will have a primary mirror that is divided into 162 individual segments, each of which is equipped with 3 positioning actuators. This paper presents a mathematical description of the telescope, its actuators and sensors, and uses it to derive control laws for figure maintenance. A Kalman Filter-based Optical State Estimator is used to continuously estimate the aberrations of the telescope; these are used in a state-feedback controller to maintain image quality. This approach provides the means to correct for the optical effects of errors that occur in unactuated degrees of freedom, such as lateral translations of the segments. The control laws are exercised in Monte Carlo and covariance analysis, to bound the closed-loop performance of the telescope and to conduct control design trades.

edge sensors↗

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Lisano, Michael E.↗

Adjustment of Sensor Locations During Thermal Property Parameter Estimation

The temperature dependent thermal properties of a material may be evaluated from transient temperature histories using nonlinear parameter estimation techniques. The usual approach is to minimize the sum of the squared errors between measured and calculated temperatures at specific locations in the body. Temperature measurements are usually made with thermocouples and it is customary to take thermocouple locations as known and fixed during parameter estimation computations. In fact, thermocouple locations are never known exactly. Location errors on the order of the thermocouple wire diameter are intrinsic to most common instrumentation procedures (e.g., inserting a thermocouple into a drilled hole) and additional errors can be expected for delicate materials, difficult installations, large thermocouple beads, etc.. Thermocouple location errors are especially significant when estimating thermal properties of low diffusively materials which can sustain large temperature gradients during testing. In the present work, a parameter estimation formulation is presented which allows for the direct inclusion of thermocouple positions into the primary parameter estimation procedure. It is straightforward to set bounds on thermocouple locations which exclude non-physical locations and are consistent with installation tolerances. Furthermore, bounds may be tightened to an extent consistent with any independent verification of thermocouple location, such as x-raying, and so the procedure is entirely consonant with experimental information. A mathematical outline of the procedure is given and its implementation is illustrated through numerical examples characteristic of light-weight, high-temperature ceramic insulation during transient heating. The efficacy and the errors associated with the procedure are discussed.

Milos, Frank S.↗

Robust Stabilization of Inverter-Based Resources Using Virtual Resistance-Based Control

This letter proposes a virtual resistance-based nonlinear control to stabilize and robustify the current layer of inverter-based resources, subject to the grid voltage disturbances, and the grid parameter uncertainties. A class of virtual resistances is proposed and analyzed using concepts from dissipative systems theory. Moreover, specific nonlinear virtual resistance-based controllers are derived, with their corresponding performance analytically bounded. Here, the theoretical and simulation results show that the proposed nonlinear virtual resistance-based controllers significantly reduce the L 2 gain of the closed-loop error system to grid voltage variation and parametric uncertainties. Significant improvements of the transient and steady-state current responses are also demonstrated over linear virtual resistance counterparts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Performance analysis of a frame sync algorithm for uncoded PSK telemetry

The optimum procedure for locating a frame sync word periodically inserted in uncoded binary data received over a binary symmetric channel is based on the Hamming distance metric. In this paper, a practical frame sync acquisition and maintenance algorithm is described, and its performance is analyzed. Specifically, with respect to this algorithm, an upper bound on the probability of false sync acquisition, the mean time to sync acquisition, and the subsequent mean time to loss of sync are computed for arbitrary bit error rates, frame lengths, sync word lengths, and algorithm parameters.

Levitt, B. K.↗

The detailed chemistry and thermodynamics of sodium in oxygen-rich flames

Measurement of sodium and OH concentrations in ten oxygen-rich H2/O2/N2 flames by respective saturated and low-power laser induced fluorescence techniques have permitted a detailed examination of the pronounced flame chemistry of sodium in such oxygen rich media. Previous interpretations have been shown to be largely incomplete or in error. The flame downstream profiles indicate that the amount of free sodium tracks the decay of H-atom and as the flame radicals decay sodium becomes increasingly bound in a molecular form. A detailed kinetic model indicates that the sodium is distributed between NaOH and NaO2 species. Concentrations of NaO are very small and NaH negligible. The actual distribution is controlled by the state of equilibrium of the flames' basic free radicals. Na, NaO2 and NaOH are all coupled to one another by fast reactions which can rapidly interconvert one to another as flame conditions vary. Above about 2000K, NaOH becomes dominant whereas NaO2 plays an increasingly important contribution at lower temperatures.

Hynes, A. J.↗

An improved method for simultaneous determination of frictional pressure drop and vapor volume fraction in vertical flow boiling

The two-phase frictional pressure drop and vapor volume fraction in the vertical boiling and adiabatic flow of the refrigerant, R11, have been simultaneously measured by a liquid balancing column and differential magnetic reluctance pressure transducers. An account is given of the experimental apparatus and procedure, data acquisition and analysis, and error estimation employed. All values of two-phase multipliers evaluated on the basis of the measured frictional pressure drop data in vertical upflow fall in the range bounded by the predictions of the Chisholm correlation and the homogeneous model.

Klausner, J. F.↗

Effects of machine learning errors on human decision-making: manipulations of model accuracy, error types, and error importance

Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗