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At least 793 records · Page 44

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Capital Cost Scaling Methodology: Revision 4b Report

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) regularly updates legacy analysis with new studies and cases as the Department of Energy objectives change, technology performance improves, costs are reduced, regulations change, market drivers are established, fuel prices fluctuate, and any number of other relevant factors vary in the market. As legacy studies are updated by NETL, the underlying performance and cost of the cases presented changes, and as such, the methods for interpreting and scaling the cost estimates change. Therefore, it is important that NETL maintain public guidance documents associated with different sets of cost estimates that delineate how a specific set, based on report vintage and/or year published, should be scaled. This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies report, providing guidance on capital cost scaling, should generally be applied to NETL case costs included in the report “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity Revision 4b,” (NETL, 2025) or any cases derived from the cases presented in the referenced report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Weather Analysis for Xcel Energy's 2030 Colorado Preferred Plan

The Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy (Xcel), plans to meet its target of an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels by 2030 through its Preferred Plan1,2 that includes increasing the wind and solar energy on its system, reducing coal, and adjusting the operation and dispatch of new and existing thermal generation. The objective of our analysis reported here is to identify how the PSCo generation and transmission of its Preferred Plan might operate in the face of specific weather events. We investigate weather events that currently cause stress to PSCo’s system, such as winter storms and extreme heat. In addition, we explore how the future system responds to scenarios that may be considered normal weather conditions today, but that have a large impact on wind and solar generation potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A review of Geological Thermal Energy Storage for seasonal, grid-scale dispatching

Energy storage is essential for the decarbonization of the U.S. energy grid, especially with the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Geological thermal energy storage (GeoTES) has emerged as a promising long duration, grid scale solution, providing stability and security through flexible operations and valuable grid services. GeoTES utilizes subsurface reservoirs to store thermal energy for power generation and direct-use heating and cooling. This approach significantly enhances the use of low-temperature reservoirs, which would otherwise be unsuitable for geothermal power plants. It also aligns well with depleted oil and gas reservoirs, concentrating solar power, non-flexible renewables (photovoltaic and wind), and geothermal-related power cycles. Given the favorable marginal costs of GeoTES as storage duration increases, it becomes particularly competitive for seasonal, grid-scale dispatch, where few technologies are viable. This paper provides a comprehensive review of GeoTES systems and the research underpinning itsr development. This analysis begins by defining and categorizing the unique characteristics of thermal energy storage techniques, setting GeoTES apart from other technologies. The various components, configurations, subsurface characteristics, and modeling efforts that guide GeoTES development are then explored. Finally, challenges in GeoTES research, development, and deployment are discussed, along with mitigation strategies and lessons from related technologies. Beyond their economic benefits, GeoTES systems support grid resilience and decarbonize industrial processes. Their scalability, broad distribution, seasonal storage potential, and flexible dispatch capacity make GeoTES a valuable tool for expanding renewable energy deployment and addressing climate change.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Follow-Up from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW): Cost Modeling Capabilities to Evaluate Trends in PV Technologies

NREL's Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) team reviews live polling results from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) related to module technology trends believed to have the greatest reliability impacts. Then, the team reviews the publicly available tools and inputs necessary for evaluating reliability tradeoffs between initial module and system costs, degradation profiles, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). These tools include the online Detailed Cost Analysis Models (DCAM) and the DuraMAT LCOE calculator.

cost modeling↗

Integration and Optimization of a Waste Heat Driven Organic Rankine Cycle for Power Generation in Wastewater Treatment Plants

The study focuses on achieving energy self-sufficiency in Wastewater Treatment Plants by proposing a comprehensive model for integrating, sizing, and optimizing an Organic Rankine Cycle system. The Organic Rankine Cycle system is designed to utilize waste heat from the gensets at As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant in Jordan, where it will contribute to the overall electrical energy supply of the plant. Real data from As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant is used to model and calculate the available waste heat using TRNSYS® software. The Organic Rankine Cycle model is then developed using ASPEN PLUS® software to explore the impact of operational parameters and determine their optimal values for maximizing the plant's energy profile. An economic analysis is conducted to assess the feasibility of the proposed model, considering system components, installation, operation, and maintenance costs. To optimize the Organic Rankine Cycle system, the study employs the Multi-Output Support Vector Regression technique to capture nonlinear relationships between independent variables (fluid type, turbine inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, turbine outlet pressure, and mass flow rate) and dependent variables (pump power input, waste heat input, and turbine specific work). The Osprey optimization algorithm is used to address the multi-objective optimization problem, with the proposed Pareto-based Osprey Optimization Algorithm and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization technique being employed to evaluate critical performance and economic parameters such as system thermal efficiency, net power output, and the levelized cost of electricity. The results of the optimization strategies indicate that the M-SVR model's prediction accuracy is significantly improved after parameter optimization, with the model returning high R 2 and low Mean Square Error values of 0.991 and 0.00216, respectively. The Pareto-Based Osprey Optimization Algorithm optimizer identifies the best working fluid as Isobutane/Isopentane in a ratio of 66:34, with optimal turbine inlet pressure and temperature of 15 bars and 218 °C, respectively. In conclusion, the Organic Rankine Cycle model at these optimal conditions achieves a cycle efficiency of 19.93% and an Levelized Cost of Electricity value of 0.0353 USD/kWh.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Systematic Matter and Binding-Energy Distributions from a Dispersive Optical Model Analysis

We present the first systematic dispersive-optical-model analysis of 16,18 O, 40,48 Ca, 58,64 Ni, 112,124 Sn, and 208 Pb. In all systems, roughly half the total nuclear binding energy is associated with the most-bound 10% of the total nucleon density. The extracted neutron skins reveal interplay of asymmetry, Coulomb, and shell effects on the skin thickness. Here, our results indicate that optical-model fits on isotopic pairs are effective for constraining nuclear structural quantities otherwise difficult to observe experimentally.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison of Floating Wind Farms With and Without Shared Anchors

As part of the Innovative Deep-Water Mooring Systems for Floating Wind Farms (DeepFarm) R&D project, led by Principle Power Inc., the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) performed an LCOE analysis to compare the changes in LCOE between floating wind farms with individual anchors versus shared anchors. This report presents a comparative analysis of the LCOE of two different wind farms with different mooring systems: one with taut mooring lines each connected to individual suction pile anchors, and one with taut mooring lines connected to shared anchors. A brief description of the methodology employed to conduct the LCOE comparison is given, including the underlying assumptions. Then, results are presented with a compilation of key findings.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Monte Carlo-based Transmission and Subtransmission Recovery Simulation of Hurricanes

High-impact low-probability (HILP) events can wreak havoc on electric power systems without appropriate preparedness. In this paper, the recent development of a tool, named Recovery Simulator and Analysis (RSA), is described and demonstrated. While there are many issues to consider when recovering electric power systems, the focus of RSA is on the coordination of transmission and subtransmission recovery with generation dispatch to minimize unserved energy. RSA focuses on recovery simulation to evaluate resilience as part of a planning process. RSA is demonstrated on an approximately 1400-bus Puerto Rican power system for 100 simulated instances of Hurricane Maria. Analysis of the recovery determines how many lines are critical to the recovery and which loads may experience delayed recovery. The results demonstrate the potential uses of RSA for identifying recovery decisions with low unserved energy and for identifying assets critical to recovery which can then be hardened prior to a HILP event.

Maloney, Patrick R.↗

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) comprehensively analyzes possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its renewable energy goals while incorporating stakeholder perspectives and advancing energy resilience for all Puerto Ricans. PR100 is a wide-ranging and in-depth examination of Puerto Rico's energy system investment options. The findings are the culmination of two years of stakeholder engagement, scenario modeling, and impact analysis. The PR100 report and Implementation Roadmap contain a range of results and actions that reflect Puerto Rico's priorities around energy justice, resilience, and reliability. Led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the PR100 study leveraged and integrated dozens of best-in-class models and in-depth analyses from researchers across six national laboratories: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (which led the study), along with Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories (which conducted the study). For more information, please see the "PR100 Project Website" resource below.

Array↗

Transformation of a ceramic precursor to a biomedical (metallic) alloy: Part I – sinterability of Ta 2 O 5 and TiO 2 mixed oxides

Mixed Ta 2 O 5 – TiO 2 binary system was studied by a combination of differential thermal analysis (DTA), scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive spectrometry (SEM-EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and in situ high temperature X-ray diffraction (HT-XRD) techniques. Different compositions of the mixed oxide powders were fabricated by ball–milling the powdered compositions, pelletizing the homogenized composite powders, and heating the green pellets in air at different temperatures for fixed time intervals. The sintered pellets were evaluated and characterized with respect to porosity, morphology, and phase distribution. DTA runs of the un-sintered powders indicated the onset temperatures for both exothermic and endothermic changes in the binary system. Significant amount of sintering was observed to take place at temperatures higher than 900 °C. Both room and high temperature X-ray diffraction patterns exhibited consistency in phase formation. A ternary compound (TaTiO 4 ) and a ternary solid solution (Ti 0.33 Ta 0.67 O 2 ) were observed to form in both room and high temperatures in addition to the respective binary phases (Ta 2 O 5 and TiO 2 ). A sintering temperature in the range 900–1000 °C was observed to be adequate to achieve the requisite mechanical strength and optimum internal porosity (40–48%) for subsequent electrochemical polarization experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SAM Software Quality Assurance Plan Implementation and NQA-1 Assessment

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool being developed at Argonne National Laboratory under the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. As a modern-day software, SAM development included efforts to follow best practices in software development. These best practices include version control using git, independent reviews of development activities, and detailed descriptions of developments and bug fixes using the GitLab issue and merge request system. In Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23), the SAM development team set out to formalize a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) program that allowed industry partners to credit the informal steps being taken by the SAM development team to ensure the quality of the software. As part of formalizing an SQA program, a SQA Plan (SQAP) was developed, implemented, and assessed. The SAM SQAP targets compliance with NQA-1-2008/2009 Addenda. The SQAP builds on the MOOSE SQAP and the Argonne SSQAPP while accounting for the needs of the multi-organization SAM development team. Modifications to the SAM repository structure, including a new testing system, updated test cases, and the development of an internal website, facilitate the implementation of the SAM SQAP. The initial assessment of the SAM SQAP indicated that the SAM SQAP was adequately and effectively implemented and additional work was required to improve the compliance of the SAM SQAP with NQA-1 2008/2009 Addenda. Several improvements to the SQAP have already been drafted to address these assessments and future work is planned to further improve the SAM SQAP in support of end-user needs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Demonstration of the carbon capture with building make-up air unit

Building-integrated carbon capture technology has the potential to reduce the cost of CO 2 capture while improving indoor air quality (IAQ). To promote the adoption of CO 2 capture in a building environment, this study investigated the possibility of integrating carbon capture technology with an existing rooftop make-up air unit (MAU) system to trap CO 2 . Here, in this study, a modular compact CO 2 capture system containing amine-functionalized polymer fibers was examined. The system, which was installed at the exhaust of the MAU, captures CO 2 before it leaves the building to enter the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. The demonstrated average amount of CO 2 captured was 1.1–1.4 mmol/g of adsorbent material. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) was further performed on the CO 2 capture system, considering material costs, energy costs, as well as transportation and regeneration costs. These results were then used to estimate the levelized cost per ton CO 2 captured (LCOC). To achieve LCOC below $\$$100/t-CO 2 , adsorbents should have working capacities of 4.9 t and 3 t-CO 2 /year for 5 years and 10 years of operation, respectively. In summary, this study highlights a viable path toward the decarbonization of the commercial buildings sector and provides quantitative performance and economic insight on the suitability of building-integrated carbon capture technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Desalination metamodels and a framework for cross-comparative performance simulations

There is an opportunity to save energy and reduce operational expenses when choosing a suitable desalination method aided by computational modeling. Existing models are not conducive to generalized comparisons between different desalination methods. Therefore, the work in this study developed metamodels for six desalination methods, grouped them into thermal and molecular transport families, and validated their predictive performance within 9% difference from published data. This validated framework allowed comparisons of desalination methods at their prescribed ranges of operational conditions that they were designed for. These conditions specify feed salinity ranges of 1.6 to 2.4 g/kg for Capacitive Deionization and Reverse Osmosis (RO), 2.8 to 4.2 g/kg for Electrodialysis, 28 to 42 g/kg for Thermovapor Compression and Humidification-Dehumidification, and 37 to 55 g/kg for Multi-Effect Distillation (MED). Despite different operational conditions, all models exhibit non-linear, positive correlation between energy consumption and system size in response to feed salinity and production rate. The framework is also employed in a cross-comparative analysis between MED and RO whose results suggest that energy intensity for MED is an order of magnitude greater than RO for the same operational conditions, but actual operational costs are comparable. Overall, the framework is ready for deployment in case studies of actual desalination plants.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗