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Forward for the new edition of: “What Every Engineer Should Know About Risk Engineering and Management"

In aerospace and engineering in general, the major metrics are capability, cost, and safety/risk. With the increasingly rapid emergence and utilization of new technologies and systems of increasing complexity, ensuring safety becomes more difficult. The technology and practice/applications of safety/risk technologies require updating in concert with capability and systems technology changes. Hence the new, updated edition of this risk engineering book. Major changes in technology and applications, now and going forward, increasingly involve artificial intelligence (AI)/autonomy and complex systems, which are rapidly developing and moving targets when it comes to risk/safety analysis. These introduce both new risks and safety issues, and they alter more usual ones. The current reality is that often the best AI is when it is “Black Boxed”, developed “independently”, without detailed human understanding of how and by what processes decisions and results are produced. There are ongoing efforts to make the AI processes more understandable by humans, with results to be determined. Also, trusted and true autonomy is free of human intervention, which would require machines to ideate to solve in real time issues that arise due to unknown unknowns and even known unknowns. Machines using generative adversarial network (GANs) and other approaches are beginning to ideate. Overall, the capabilities and practice of AI/autonomy utilization is a work in progress with the rate of progress substantial and the impacts upon system risk/safety major.

Dennis M. Bushnell↗

High End Computing Technologies for Earth Science Applications: Trends, Challenges, and Innovations

Earth science applications of the future will stress the capabilities of even the highest performance supercomputers in the areas of raw compute power, mass storage management, and software environments. These NASA mission critical problems demand usable multi-petaflops and exabyte-scale systems to fully realize their science goals. With an exciting vision of the technologies needed, NASA has established a comprehensive program of advanced research in computer architecture, software tools, and device technology to ensure that, in partnership with US industry, it can meet these demanding requirements with reliable, cost effective, and usable ultra-scale systems. NASA will exploit, explore, and influence emerging high end computing architectures and technologies to accelerate the next generation of engineering, operations, and discovery processes for NASA Enterprises. This article captures this vision and describes the concepts, accomplishments, and the potential payoff of the key thrusts that will help meet the computational challenges in Earth science applications.

Parks, John↗

Application of ESE Data and Tools to Air Quality Management: Services for Helping the Air Quality Community use ESE Data (SHAirED)

The goal of this REASoN applications and technology project is to deliver and use Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) data and tools in support of air quality management. Its scope falls within the domain of air quality management and aims to develop a federated air quality information sharing network that includes data from NASA, EPA, US States and others. Project goals were achieved through a access of satellite and ground observation data, web services information technology, interoperability standards, and air quality community collaboration. In contributing to a network of NASA ESE data in support of particulate air quality management, the project will develop access to distributed data, build Web infrastructure, and create tools for data processing and analysis. The key technologies used in the project include emerging web services for developing self describing and modular data access and processing tools, and service oriented architecture for chaining web services together to assemble customized air quality management applications. The technology and tools required for this project were developed within DataFed.net, a shared infrastructure that supports collaborative atmospheric data sharing and processing web services. Much of the collaboration was facilitated through community interactions through the Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) Air Quality Workgroup. The main activities during the project that successfully advanced DataFed, enabled air quality applications and established community-oriented infrastructures were: develop access to distributed data (surface and satellite), build Web infrastructure to support data access, processing and analysis create tools for data processing and analysis foster air quality community collaboration and interoperability.

Falke, Stefan↗

Propulsion technology for an advanced subsonic transport

Engine design studies for future subsonic commercial transport aircraft were conducted in parallel with airframe studies. These studies surveyed a broad distribution of design variables, including aircraft configuration, payload, range, and speed, with particular emphasis on reducing noise and exhaust emissions without severe economic and performance penalties. The results indicated that an engine for an advanced transport would be similar to the currently emerging turbofan engines. Application of current technology in the areas of noise suppression and combustors imposed severe performance and economic penalties.

Beheim, M. A.↗

Technology forecast and applications for autonomous, intelligent systems

Significant research products which have emerged from the core program of NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) are discussed. The Space Station Thermal Control System, the Space Shuttle Integrated Communications Officer Station, the Launch Processing System, the Expert Scheduling System for Pioneer Venus Spacecraft, a Bayesian classification system, and a spaceborne multiprocessor system are included. The technology trends which led to these results are discussed and future developments in technology are forecasted.

Lum, Henry, Jr.↗

Tropical medicine: Telecommunications and technology transfer

The potential for global outbreaks of tropical infectious diseases, and our ability to identify and respond to such outbreaks is a major concern. Rapid, efficient telecommunications is viewed as part of the solution to this set of problems - the means to link a network of epidemiological field stations via satellite with U.S. academic institutions and government agencies, for purposes of research, training in tropical medicine, and observation of and response to epidemic emergencies. At a workshop, telecommunications and technology transfer were addressed and applications of telecommunications technology in long-distance consultation, teaching and disaster relief were demonstrated. Applications in teaching and consultation in tropical infectious diseases is discussed.

Legters, Llewellyn J.↗

MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗

MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗

Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO)

STEReO brings together several technologies in Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM), Autonomy, Communications, Human Factors, and Domain Expertise & Tools, aimed at providing scalability and flexibility, as well as operational resiliency to dynamic changes during a disaster event. Some of the concepts STEReO explores are: collaborative tools to ingest remote sensing information and distribute a common mission operating picture, apply ad-hoc communication networks to facilitate timely information sharing and communication of changes, vehicle-to-vehicle and onboard autonomy technologies ensure the safety and resiliency of operations, and apply NASA’s UAS traffic management system (UTM) as a public safety UAS Service Supplier (USS) to access and coordinate use of the airspace by both manned and unmanned operations. The potential benefits of STEReO include: standardized, cross-platform communication means increased interoperability and ease of cooperation/collaboration, increased situation awareness and common operating picture allow for earlier detection and decision making, and scalable to size and complexity of environment, operations, and mission objectives. This presentation gives an informational overview of the STEReO project to attendees of the AIAA Aviation conference.

emergency response operations↗

Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO)

STEReO brings together several technologies in Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM), Autonomy, Communications, Human Factors, and Domain Expertise & Tools, aimed at providing scalability and flexibility, as well as operational resiliency to dynamic changes during a disaster event. Some of the concepts STEReO explores are: collaborative tools to ingest remote sensing information and distribute a common mission operating picture, apply ad-hoc communication networks to facilitate timely information sharing and communication of changes, vehicle-to-vehicle and onboard autonomy technologies ensure the safety and resiliency of operations, and apply NASA’s UAS traffic management system (UTM) as a public safety UAS Service Supplier (USS) to access and coordinate use of the airspace by both manned and unmanned operations. The potential benefits of STEReO include: standardized, cross-platform communication means increased interoperability and ease of cooperation/collaboration, increased situation awareness and common operating picture allow for earlier detection and decision making, and scalable to size and complexity of environment, operations, and mission objectives. This flyer gives an overview of the STEReO project, to be used a handout given to atteendees of the ARMD Wildfire Management Workshop.

traffic management↗

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 1: Executive summary

Over the past two decades, fiber optics has emerged as a highly practical and cost-efficient communications technology. Its competitiveness vis-a-vis other transmission media, especially satellite, has become a critical question. This report studies the likely evolution and application of fiber optic networks in the United States to the end of the century. The outlook for the technology of fiber systems is assessed and forecast, scenarios of the evolution of fiber optic network development are constructed, and costs to provide service are determined and examined parametrically as a function of network size and traffic carried. Volume 1 consists of the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic technology and long distance fiber optic networks. Volume 3 develops a traffic and financial model of a nationwide long distance transmission network. Among the study's most important conclusions are: revenue requirements per circuit for LATA-to-LATA fiber optic links are less than one cent per call minute; multiplex equipment, which is likely to be required in any competing system, is the largest contributor to circuit costs; the potential capacity of fiber optic cable is very large and as yet undefined; and fiber optic transmission combined with other network optimization schemes can lead to even lower costs than those identified in this study.

Source record↗

Proton Effects and Test Issues for Satellite Designers: Ionization Effects - Section 4

This portion of the Short Course is divided into two segments to separately address the two major proton-related effects confronting satellite designers: ionization effects and displacement damage effects. While both of these topics are deeply rooted in "traditional" descriptions of space radiation effects, there are several factors at play to cause renewed concern for satellite systems being designed today. For example, emphasis on Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) technologies in both commercial and government systems increases both Total Ionizing Dose (TID) and Single Event Effect (SEE) concerns. Scaling trends exacerbate the problems, especially with regard to SEEs where protons can dominate soft error rates and even cause destructive failure. In addition, proton-induced displacement damage at fluences encountered in natural space environments can cause degradation in modern bipolar circuitry as well as in many emerging electronic and opto-electronic technologies. A crude, but nevertheless telling, indication of the level of concern for proton effects follows from surveying the themes treated in papers presented at this conference. The table lists themes found in the IEEE Transaction on Nuclear Science (TNS) December issue from the past year and compares them with the December issue's content a decade earlier. Ten years ago there were nine papers, or about 10% of the total, dealing with the four indicated topics. At that time, single event effects from protons were the primary concern, and these were thought to be possible only when a nuclear reaction initiated energetic recoil atoms. This is shown in the table as the 'traditional" SEE subject. A decade later, submissions addressing this topic had doubled, while papers devoted to displacement damage studies had increased from one to nine! More importantly, displacement damage effects in the natural space environments have become a concern for degradation in modern devices (other than solar cells), and this was not so ten years earlier.

Marshall, Paul W.↗

1999 NSREC Short Course: Proton Effects and Test Issues for Satellite Designers: Displacement Effects

This portion of the Short Course is divided into two segments to separately address the two major proton-related effects confronting satellite designers: ionization effects and displacement damage effects. While both of these topics are deeply rooted in "traditional" descriptions of space radiation effects, there are several factors at play to cause renewed concern for satellite systems being designed today. For example, emphasis on Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) technologies in both commercial and government systems increases both Total Ionizing Dose (TID) and Single Event Effect (SEE) concerns. Scaling trends exacerbate the problems, especially with regard to SEEs where protons can dominate soft error rates and even cause destructive failure. In addition, proton-induced displacement damage at fluences encountered in natural space environments can cause degradation in modern bipolar circuitry as well as in many emerging electronic and opto-electronic technologies.

Marshall, Cheryl J.↗

Emergency vehicle alert system (EVAS)

The Emergency Vehicle Alert System (EVAS) program is sponsored by the NASA/MSFC Technology Utilization (TU) office. The program was conceived to support the needs of hearing impaired drivers. The objective of the program is to develop a low-cost, small device which can be located in a personal vehicle and warn the driver, via a visual means, of the approach of an emergency vehicle. Many different technologies might be developed for this purpose and each has its own advantages and drawbacks. The requirements for an acoustic detection system, appear to be pretty stringent and may not allow the development of a reliable, low-cost device in the near future. The problems include variations in the sirens between various types of emergency vehicles, distortions due to wind and surrounding objects, competing background noise, sophisticated signal processing requirements, and omni-directional coverage requirements. Another approach is to use a Radio Frequency (RF) signal between the Emergency Vehicle (EV) and the Personal Vehicle (PV). This approach requires a transmitter on each EV and a receiver in each PV, however it is virtually assured that a system can be developed which works. With this approach, the real technology issue is how to make a system work as inexpensively as possible. This report gives a brief summary of the EVAS program from its inception and concentrates on describing the activities that occurred during Phase 4. References 1-3 describe activities under Phases 1-3. In the fourth phase of the program, the major effort to be expended was in development of the microcontroller system for the PV, refinement of some system elements and packaging for demonstration purposes. An EVAS system was developed and demonstrated which used standard spread spectrum modems with minor modifications.

Reed, Bill↗

Verification and Validation of Safety-Critical Aircraft Systems Operating under Off-Nominal, Contingency, and Emergency Conditions

Verification and validation (V&V) of safety-critical technologies developed for loss of control (LOC) prevention and recovery and other aviation safety concerns pose significant challenges. Aircraft LOC can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination, which cannot be fully replicated during evaluation. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of hazardous and uncertain conditions, and the verification and validation of these technologies must provide some measure of assurance that the new vehicle safety technologies do no harm (i.e., that they themselves do not introduce new safety risks). V&V technologies must also enable the identification of system limitations and constraints, as well as enable the identification of safe and unsafe operating conditions (and their boundaries). Additionally, the V&V of complex, increasingly autonomous systems is a fundamental concern. Scalable, reproducible and cost-effective techniques for the assurance of safety critical systems during their design and operation is a key barrier to fielding new systems or updating current systems. Moreover, these techniques need to provide artifacts that enable a comprehensive evidence-based approach to certification. This briefing summarizes research performed under NASA’s Aviation Safety Program and follow-on research for the V&V of safety-critical aircraft system technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery and increasingly autonomous systems, and for a broad assurance capability in both current and emerging aviation applications. Note that, in this briefing, the term “validation” refers to a confirmation that the system implementation (e.g., algorithms etc.) is performing the intended function(s), as well as an affirmation of effectiveness in these functions. “Verification” refers to a confirmation that the system implementation in the software and hardware meets its (hopefully validated) specifications (e.g., correctly executes algorithms as designed).

Validation↗

Biomaterials and Magnetic fields for Cancer Therapy

The field of biomaterials has emerged as an important topic in the purview of NASA s new vision of research activities in the Microgravity Research Division. Although this area has an extensive track record in the medical field as borne out by the routine use of polymeric sutures, implant devices, and prosthetics, novel applications such as tissue engineering, artificial heart valves and controlled drug delivery are beginning to be developed. Besides the medical field, biomaterials and bio-inspired technologies are finding use in a host of emerging interdisciplinary fields such as self-healing and self-assembling structures, biosensors, fuel systems etc. The field of magnetic fluid technology has several potential applications in medicine. One of the emerging fields is the area of controlled drug delivery, which has seen its evolution from the basic oral delivery system to pulmonary to transdermal to direct inoculations. In cancer treatment by chemotherapy for example, targeted and controlled drug delivery has received vast scrutiny and substantial research and development effort, due to the high potency of the drugs involved and the resulting requirement to keep the exposure of the drugs to surrounding healthy tissue to a minimum. The use of magnetic particles in conjunction with a static magnetic field allows smart targeting and retention of the particles at a desired site within the body with the material transport provided by blood perfusion. Once so located, the therapeutical aspect (radiation, chemotherapy, hyperthermia, etc.) of the treatment, now highly localized, can be implemented.

Ramachandran, Narayanan↗

Toward Right-Fidelity Rotorcraft Conceptual Design

The aviation Advanced Design Office (ADO) of the US Army Aeroflightdynamics Directorate (AMRDEC) performs conceptual design of advanced Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) concepts in support of the Army's development and acquisition of new aviation systems. In particular, ADO engages in system synthesis to assess the impact of new technologies and their application to satisfy emerging warfighter needs and requirements. Fundamental to ADO being successful in accomplishing its role; is the ability to evaluate a wide array of proposed air vehicle concepts, and independently synthesize new concepts to inform Army and DoD decision makers about the tradespace in which decisions will be made (Figure 1). ADO utilizes a conceptual design (CD) process in the execution of its role. Benefiting from colocation with NASA rotorcraft researchers at the Ames Research Center, ADO and NASA have engaged in a survey of the current rotorcraft PD practices and begun the process of improving those capabilities to enable effective design and development of the next generation of VTOL systems. A unique aspect of CD in ADO is the fact that actual designs developed in-house are not intended to move forward in the development process. Rather, they are used as reference points in discussions about requirements development and technology impact. The ultimate products of ADO CD efforts are technology impact assessments and specifications which guide industry design activity. The fact that both the requirement and design are variables in the tradespace adds to the complexity of the CD process. A frequent need is ability to assess the relative "cost" of variations in requirement for a diverse set of VTOL configurations. Each of these configurations may have fundamentally different response characteristics to this requirement variation, and such insight into how different requirements drive different designs is a critical insight ADO attempts to provide decision makers. The processes and tools utilized are driven by the timeline in which questions must be answered. This can range from quick "back-of-the-envelope" assessments of a configuration made in an afternoon, to more detailed tradespace explorations that can take upwards of a year to complete. A variety of spreadsheet based tools and conceptual design codes are currently in use. The in-house developed conceptual sizing code RC (Rotorcraft) has been the preferred tool of choice for CD activity for a number of years. Figure 2 illustrates the long standing coupling between RC and solid modeling tools for layout, as well as a number of ad-hoc interfaces with external analyses. RC contains a sizing routine that is built around the use of momentum theory for rotors, classic finite wing theory, a referred parameter engine model, and semi-emperical weight estimation techniques. These methods lend themselves to rapid solutions, measured in seconds and minutes. The successful use of RC, however requires careful consideration of model input parameters and judicious comparison with existing aircraft to avoid unjustified extrapolation of results. RC is in fact a legacy of a series of codes whose development started in the early 1970s, and is best suited to the study of conventional helicopters and XV-15 style tiltrotors. Other concepts have been analyzed with RC, but typically it became necessary to modify the source code and methods for each unique configuration. Recent activity has lead to the development of a new code, NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC). NDARC uses a similar level of analytical fidelity as RC, but is built on a new framework intended to improve modularity and ability to rapidly model a wider array of concepts. Critical to achieving this capability is the decomposition of the aircraft system into a series of fundamental components which can then be assembled to form a wide-array of configurations. The paper will provide an overview of NDARC and its capabilities.

Sinsay, Jeffrey D.↗

A mission operations architecture for the 21st century

An operations architecture is proposed for low cost missions beyond the year 2000. The architecture consists of three elements: a service based architecture; a demand access automata; and distributed science hubs. The service based architecture is based on a set of standard multimission services that are defined, packaged and formalized by the deep space network and the advanced multi-mission operations system. The demand access automata is a suite of technologies which reduces the need to be in contact with the spacecraft, and thus reduces operating costs. The beacon signaling, the virtual emergency room, and the high efficiency tracking automata technologies are described. The distributed science hubs provide information system capabilities to the small science oriented flight teams: individual access to all traditional mission functions and services; multimedia intra-team communications, and automated direct transparent communications between the scientists and the instrument.

Tai, W.↗