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DOE OSTI2025

Polaris-PARCS Sensitivity Study on LWR Fuel Cycles: Polaris Input Options

This study is the first of a multi-phase effort to assess the sensitivity of light-water reactor (LWR) core-level prediction biases to changes in lattice-level calculation parameters. Prediction bias is the measured-to-predicted difference in a core-level quantity of interest (QOI) which can be estimated by comparing the simulation results with the plant-measured data for key nuclear parameters. The LWR two-step neutronics codes employed herein are the SCALE–Polaris lattice physics code (v6.3.1) and the Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) nodal diffusion simulator (v3.4.2), both funded and used for confirmatory analysis to support licensing by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Polaris–PARCS is used to model Watts Bar Unit 1 cycles 1–3 and Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3. This study focuses on the impact of changes to Polaris input options such as scattering treatment or quadrature settings and how these input options induce changes in core-level quantities of interest (QOIs)bias. The report documents multiple bias assessments for different modeling choices and compares the bias magnitude to the QOI measurement uncertainties. Future companion reports will investigate the sensitivity of core-level LWR prediction bias to Polaris input options and Polaris-computed QOIs such as few-group assembly-homogenized cross sections to gain an understanding of the key drivers of prediction bias at lattice and core levels for application of a two-step LWR neutronics procedure in a licensing scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating soil N 2 O emissions induced by organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs using a Tier-2, regression-based meta-analytic approach for U.S. agricultural lands

Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Peanut allergy burden survey: Factors associated with health‐related quality of life in adolescents

Abstract Background Patients with peanut allergy (PA) experience significant burden of illness, which impacts health‐related quality of life (HRQoL), particularly in adolescence. There is a paucity of research evaluating drivers of HRQoL scores. Methods A prospective, online survey of adolescents with self‐reported, provider‐diagnosed PA completed from November 2018 to January 2019 was used to explore drivers of the real‐world impact of PA on HRQoL using the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 (PedsQL) and other measures. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify potential factors associated with PedsQL scores and to understand the level of association. Results A total of 102 adolescents were included. The final model included 10 variables: race, reported strict peanut avoidance, satisfaction with prophylaxis, moderate‐to‐severe reaction within the past 12 months, touching peanut as cause of most severe reaction, fear of reaction, age, gender, comorbidities, and daily life limitations. In total, three items were shown to be strong predictors of the PedsQL total score including cause of severe reaction was touching peanut (yes), level of agreement with avoiding peanut (completely agree), and satisfaction with prophylaxis (not very much/not at all). Conclusions There is substantial heterogeneity in the impact of the burden of PA on PedsQL scores across patients. This indicates the importance of shared and individualized decision making for PA management to optimize outcomes and improve HRQoL.

McCann, William A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting demand for hydrogen station fueling

Full function hydrogen stations are a reality; fuel cell electric vehicle drivers can pull up to commercial fueling stations and receive 3–5 kg in less than 5 min, for an approximately 300-mile range. The demand for hydrogen is increasing, driven by an increase in the fueling of public and private fuel cell vehicles. This study describes the development and value of a model that simulates stochastic future demand at a hydrogen filling station. The predictive hydrogen demand model described in this article is trained from mathematical models constructed from actual hydrogen fill count, amount, and frequency data. Future fill probabilities inform the hour-by-hour demand profile and the station state of either “available, ready to fill” or “available, filling”. For example, a prediction for a station generally dispensing 5,000 kg a week on a Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. is 16 fills, totaling 48.7 kg, with a 0.52 proportion of time spent in “available, filling” state yielding 31 min of filling time. This is a first-of-its kind, published study on predicting future hydrogen demand by the time of day (e.g., hour-by-hour intervals) and day of week. This study can be used for hydrogen station requirements and operation and maintenance strategies and to assess the impact of demand variations and scenarios. Finally, this article presents the current status of hydrogen demand, the model development methods, a set of sample results. Discussion and conclusions concentrate on the value and use of the proposed model.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploratory Investigation of Disengagements and Crashes in Autonomous Vehicles Under Mixed Traffic: An Endogenous Switching Regime Framework

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have a large potential to improve traffic safety but also pose some critical challenges. While AVs may help reduce crashes caused by human error, they still may experience failures of technologies and sensing, as well as decision-making errors in a mixed traffic environment. A disengagement refers to an AV transitioning control from autonomous systems to the trained test driver. The safety critical nature of disengagements makes it imperative to analyze disengagements and crashes together. In this study, we analyze both crashes and disengagements from real-world AV driving in California to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between disengagements and crashes in a mixed traffic environment. A nested logit model was calibrated using three different outcomes: (1) disengagement with a crash, (2) disengagement with no crash, and (3) no disengagement with a crash. Furthermore, endogenous switching regime models were also calibrated to draw distinctions between the relation of disengagements and crashes while accounting for endogeneity effects. The results show that factors related to AV systems (such as software failures) and other roadway participants increase the propensity of a disengagement without a crash. Furthermore, AVs were observed to disengage less often as the technology matured over time. Marginal effects revealed an 8% decrease. The results thus suggest that disengagements are a part of AVs' safe performance and disengagement alerts may need to be triggered in order to avoid certain failures with current technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Fast Charging Infrastructure Requirements to Fully Electrify Ride-Hailing Fleets Across the United States

Ride-hailing electrification is made challenging by a variety of factors, including limited driver access to overnight charging and a nascent network of public direct-current fast charging (DCFC). This article projects the DCFC infrastructure needed to electrify ride-hailing across 384 cities in the United States. Research leveraging a novel infrastructure projection tool, Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Tool for On-Demand Mobility Services model (EVI-OnDemand), estimates that 25,400 DCFC ports capable of charging vehicles at a mean power of 150 kW are required to electrify 1.45 million ride-hailing vehicles in the baseline scenario. Results show that ride-hailing vehicles require 17.5 DCFC ports per 1000 vehicles, three times that of personal electric vehicles (EVs). Infrastructure demand is also shown to vary across cities; 63% more DCFC ports are needed to support 1000 battery EVs in Chicago versus Miami. The analysis also includes sensitivity studies that explore variation in charging demand across input assumptions, finding that charging power, vehicle class, overnight charging access rates, and port utilization influence the network size needed. Projections vary from 18,600 to 41,300 DCFC ports across sensitivity scenarios, indicating that ride-hailing electrification will require significant expansion of access to fast charging even in the most optimistic scenarios, and investments into supporting assets can reduce the scale of the public charging expansion needed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Deep Soil Organic Carbon Response to Global Change

Over 70% of soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored at a depth greater than 20 cm belowground. A portion of this deep SOC actively cycles on annual to decadal timescales and is sensitive to global change. However, deep SOC responses to global change likely differ from surface SOC responses because biotic controls on SOC cycling become weaker as mineral controls predominate with depth. Here, we synthesize the current information on deep SOC responses to the global change drivers of warming, shifting precipitation, elevated CO 2 , and land use and land cover change. Most deep SOC responses can only be hypothesized because few global change studies measure deep soils, and even fewer global change experiments manipulate deep soils. We call on scientists to incorporate deep soils into their manipulations, measurements, and models so that the response of deep SOC can be accounted for in projections of nature-based climate solutions and terrestrial feedbacks to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Report on the Use and Function of the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Platform (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP)

The commercial nuclear power industry has achieved excellent safety and reliability performance but is struggling to survive in an electricity market that is increasingly dominated by subsidized renewables and cheap natural gas. These challenges have forced utilities to explore previously uncharted avenues to drastically reduce the operations and maintenance costs of their plants which are the primary drivers of the total cost to produce electricity. The petrochemical industry faced similar challenges some years ago as the costs of extraction and processing were rising while their reservoirs were being depleted along with a drop-in commodity prices that resulted in unsustainable operations. In this challenging climate, they developed a business model called Integrated Operations (IO) that sought to utilize technology to enable news ways of working through the integration of people, technology, process and governance changes. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, working with IFE have developed an operating model via transferable learnings from the North Sea O&G industry. This framework is termed “Integrated Operations for Nuclear” (ION). ION is a transformation model that integrates the benefits and features of four principal factors: People, Technology, Process and Governance. The purpose of this report is to describe how to generate an ION business process analysis and utilize this information to reduce O&M costs. In order to make this job easier, DOE LWRS has created a suite of tools that will allow a person who is involved in a transformation effort at their company to build a solid documented business case for embarking on a major transformation effort. These tools, the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Model (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP) are described herein with instructions on their use. Instructions on how the interface with the EPRI Business Case Analysis Method (BCAM) are also provided.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

The future of computing beyond Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore’s Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. Here, this article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science’.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Firm Synthesizer and Supply-chain Simulator (SynthFirm) v1.0

SynthFirm is a large-scale agent-based freight demand model which generates a complete synthetic population of firms in the U.S. and the business-to-business commodity flows between them. Using publicly available data sources as inputs, SynthFirm simulates detailed firm and fleet characteristics, commodity production and consumption, formation of supply chains, and selection of shipping modes, all of which are essential drivers of commodity flow at a disaggregate level.

Xu, Xiaodan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

With the support of DOE's Vehicle Technologies Office and the DOE/DOT Joint Office (JO), NREL has applied the EVI-X modeling suite to conduct a National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Needs Assessment. This report considers a 2030 scenario in which 50% of light-duty sales are electric (including plug-in hybrids), resulting in an on-road stock of 33 million vehicles. We consider the needs of vehicles used for typical daily driving, drivers without access to residential charging, corridor charging supporting long-distance travel, and ride-hailing electrification. We find that a cumulative capital investment of $82 billion in public and private charging infrastructure will be necessary in our baseline scenario (approximately 3x greater than our estimate of planned investments to date). This result is framed as a conservative estimate as the assumed costs include charging equipment and installation but exclude the cost of grid upgrades and distributed energy resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling U.S. Light-Duty Demand for EV Charging Infrastructure in 2030

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Clonal Expansion Using CarcSeq Measurement of Lung Cancer Driver Mutations and Correlation With Mouse Strain- and Sex-Related Incidence of Spontaneous Lung Neoplasia

Quantification of variation in levels of spontaneously occurring cancer driver mutations (CDMs) was developed to assess clonal expansion and predict future risk of neoplasm development. Specifically, an error-corrected next-generation sequencing method, CarcSeq, and a mouse CarcSeq panel (analogous to human and rat panels) were developed and used to quantify low-frequency mutations in a panel of amplicons enriched in hotspot CDMs. Mutations in a subset of panel amplicons, Braf, Egfr, Kras, Stk11, and Tp53, were related to incidence of lung neoplasms at 2 years. This was achieved by correlating median absolute deviation (MAD) from the overall median mutant fraction (MF) measured in the lung DNA of 16-week-old male and female, B6C3F1 and CD-1 mice (10 mice/sex/strain) with percentages of spontaneous alveolar/bronchioloalveolar adenomas and carcinomas reported in bioassay control groups. A total of 1586 mouse lung mutants with MFs > x 10-4 were recovered. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations was used to assess the proportion of recovered mutations conferring a positive selective advantage. The greatest ratio was observed in what is considered the most lung tumor-sensitive model examined, male B6C3F1 mice. Of the recurrent, nonsynonymous mouse mutations recovered, 55.5% have been reported in human tumors, with many located in or around the mouse equivalent of human cancer hotspot codons. MAD for the same subset of amplicons measured in normal human lung DNA samples showed a correlation of moderate strength and borderline significance with age (a cancer risk factor), as well as age-related cumulative lung cancer risk, suggesting MAD may inform species extrapolation.

Toxicology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗