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Emerging and Reemeriging Human Bunyavirus Infections and Climate Change

The Bunyaviridae family includes a growing number of viruses that have contributed to the burden of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases around the globe. Many of these viruses cause severe clinical outcomes in human and animal populations, the results of which can be detrimental to public health and the economies of affected communities. The threat to endemic and non-native regions is particularly high, and national and international public health agencies are often on alert. Many of the bunyaviruses cause severe clinical disease including hemorrhage, organ failure, and death leading to their high-risk classification. Hantaviruses and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) (genus Phlebovirus) are National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Category A priority pathogens in the United States. Viral hemorrhagic fevers, a classification that includes many bunyaviruses, are immediately notifiable in the European Union. The emergence of new and reemerging bunyaviruses has resulted in numerous human and animal fatalities. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in East Africa (1997/1998, 2006/2007), Sudan (2007), Southern Africa (2008-2010), Kenya (1997/1998, 2006/2007) (Anyamba et al., 2009, 2010; Breiman et al., 2010; Grobbelaar et al., 2011; Woods et al., 2002) and Saudi Arabia & Yemen (2000, 2010) (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2000; Hjelle and Glass, 2000; Madani et al., 2003) and the emergence of Sin Nombre virus (1993) (Hjelle and Glass, 2000) and most recently Schmallenberg virus (2011) (DEFRA, 2012) are prime examples of the devastating and worldwide toll bunyaviruses have on health and economies. Climate variability (precipitation and temperature in particular) greatly influence the ecological conditions that drive arboviral disease outbreaks across the globe. Several human and animal disease outbreaks have been influenced by changes in climate associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon including the bunyaviruses RVFV and Sin Nombre (an etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS)), as well as Murray Valley encephalitis, chikungunya, and malaria to name but a few (Anyamba et al., 2009; Bouma and Dye, 1997; Chretien et al., 2007; Engelthaler et al., 1999; Kovats et al., 2003; Linthicum et al., 1999; Nicholls, 1986). Most bunyaviruses exhibit episodic outbreak patterns with seasonal or annual trends dependent upon climate conditions, vector abundance, and the proximity of a susceptible population. The implications for continued climate change are dire, especially with regard to vector-borne diseases, many of which can cause severe morbidity, sequelae, and death. Increased rainfall and widening endemicity as a result of climate change, compounded by the emergence of new viruses, poses a serious threat to a greater geographic range beyond the regions of endemicity.

Bunyavirus↗

Management of Leshmaniases in the Era of Climate Change in Morocco

The proliferation of vector-borne diseases are predicted to increase in a changing climate and Leishmaniases, as a vector-borne diseases, are re-emerging diseases in several regions of the world. In Morocco, during the last decade, a sharp increase in cutaneous leishmaniases cases has been reported. Nevertheless, in Morocco, leishmaniases are a major public health problem, and little interest was given to climate change impacts on the distribution and spread of these diseases. As insect-borne diseases, the incidence and distribution of leishmaniases are influenced by environmental changes, but also by several socio-economic and cultural factors. From a biological point of view, environmental variables have effects on the survival of insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs, which, in turn, affects transmission. Here, we highlight the effects of climate change in Morocco and discuss its consequences on the epidemiology of leishmaniases to identify challenges and define targeted recommendations to fight this disease.

climate change↗

DOME: Directional medical embedding vectors from Electronic Health Records

Motivation: The increasing availability of Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems has created enormous potential for translational research. Recent developments in representation learning techniques have led to effective large-scale representations of EHR concepts along with knowledge graphs that empower downstream EHR studies. However, most existing methods require training with patient-level data, limiting their abilities to expand the training with multi-institutional EHR data. On the other hand, scalable approaches that only require summary-level data do not incorporate temporal dependencies between concepts. Methods: We introduce a DirectiOnal Medical Embedding (DOME) algorithm to encode temporally directional relationships between medical concepts, using summary-level EHR data. Specifically, DOME first aggregates patient-level EHR data into an asymmetric co-occurrence matrix. Then it computes two Positive Pointwise Mutual Information (PPMI) matrices to correspondingly encode the pairwise prior and posterior dependencies between medical concepts. Following that, a joint matrix factorization is performed on the two PPMI matrices, which results in three vectors for each concept: a semantic embedding and two directional context embeddings. They collectively provide a comprehensive depiction of the temporal relationship between EHR concepts. Results: We highlight the advantages and translational potential of DOME through three sets of validation studies. First, DOME consistently improves existing direction-agnostic embedding vectors for disease risk prediction in several diseases, for example achieving a relative gain of 5.5% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for lung cancer. Second, DOME excels in directional drug-disease relationship inference by successfully differentiating between drug side effects and indications, correspondingly achieving relative AUROC gain over the state-of-the-art methods by 10.8% and 6.6%. Finally, DOME effectively constructs directional knowledge graphs, which distinguish disease risk factors from comorbidities, thereby revealing disease progression trajectories. The source codes are provided at https://github.com/celehs/Directional-EHRembedding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Inhibition of ethylene involved in resistance to E. turcicum in an exotic-derived double haploid maize population

Northern corn leaf blight (NCLB) is an economically important disease of maize. While the genetic architecture of NCLB has been well characterized, the pathogen is known to overcome currently deployed resistance genes, and the role of hormones in resistance to NCLB is an area of active research. The objectives of the study were (i) to identify significant markers associated with resistance to NCLB, (ii) to identify metabolic pathways associated with NCLB resistance, and (iii) to examine role of ethylene in resistance to NCLB. We screened 252 lines from the exotic-derived double haploid BGEM maize population for resistance to NCLB in both field and greenhouse environments. We used a genome wide association study (GWAS) and stepwise regression to identify four markers associated with resistance, followed by a pathway association study tool (PAST) to identify important metabolic pathways associated with disease severity and incubation period. The ethylene synthesis pathway was significant for disease severity and incubation period. We conducted a greenhouse assay in which we inhibited ethylene to examine the role of ethylene in resistance to NCLB. We observed a significant increase in incubation period and a significant decrease in disease severity between plants treated with the ethylene inhibitor and mock-treated plants. Our study confirms the potential of the BGEM population as a source of novel alleles for resistance. We also confirm the role of ethylene in resistance to NCLB and contribute to the growing body of literature on ethylene and disease resistance in monocots.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Label-Free In Situ Chemical Characterization of Amyloid Plaques in Human Brain Tissues

The accumulation of amyloid plaques and increased brain redox burdens are neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease. Altered metabolism of essential biometals is another feature of Alzheimer’s, with amyloid plaques representing sites of disturbed metal homeostasis. Despite these observations, metal-targeting disease treatments have not been therapeutically effective to date. A better understanding of amyloid plaque composition and the role of the metals associated with them is critical. To establish this knowledge, the ability to resolve chemical variations at nanometer length scales relevant to biology is essential. Here, we present a methodology for the label-free, nanoscale chemical characterization of amyloid plaques within human Alzheimer’s disease tissue using synchrotron X-ray spectromicroscopy. Our approach exploits a C–H carbon absorption feature, consistent with the presence of lipids, to visualize amyloid plaques selectively against the tissue background, allowing chemical analysis to be performed without the addition of amyloid dyes that alter the native sample chemistry. Using this approach, we show that amyloid plaques contain elevated levels of calcium, carbonates, and iron compared to the surrounding brain tissue. Chemical analysis of iron within plaques revealed the presence of chemically reduced, low-oxidation-state phases, including ferromagnetic metallic iron. The zero-oxidation state of ferromagnetic iron determines its high chemical reactivity and so may contribute to the redox burden in the Alzheimer’s brain and thus drive neurodegeneration. Ferromagnetic metallic iron has no established physiological function in the brain and may represent a target for therapies designed to lower redox burdens in Alzheimer’s disease. Additionally, ferromagnetic metallic iron has magnetic properties that are distinct from the iron oxide forms predominant in tissue, which might be exploitable for the in vivo detection of amyloid pathologies using magnetically sensitive imaging. We anticipate that this label-free X-ray imaging approach will provide further insights into the chemical composition of amyloid plaques, facilitating better understanding of how plaques influence the course of Alzheimer’s disease.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Identification and distribution of pathogens coinfecting with Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii and Rift Valley fever virus in humans, livestock and wildlife

Zoonotic diseases, such as brucellosis, Q fever and Rift Valley fever (RVF) caused by Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii and RVF virus, respectively, can have devastating effects on human, livestock, and wildlife health and cause economic hardship due to morbidity and mortality in livestock. Coinfection with multiple pathogens can lead to more severe disease outcomes and altered transmission dynamics. These three pathogens can alter host immune responses likely leading to increased morbidity, mortality and pathogen transmission during coinfection. Developing countries, such as those commonly afflicted by outbreaks of brucellosis, Q fever and RVF, have high disease burden and thus common coinfections. A literature survey provided information on case reports and studies investigating coinfections involving the three focal diseases. Fifty five studies were collected demonstrating coinfections of Brucella spp., C. burnetii or RVFV with 50 different pathogens, of which 64% were zoonotic. While the literature search criteria involved ‘coinfection’, only 24/55 studies showed coinfections with direct pathogen detection methods (microbiology, PCR and antigen test), while the rest only reported detection of antibodies against multiple pathogens, which only indicate a history of co-exposure, not concurrent infection. These studies lack the ability to test whether coinfection leads to changes in morbidity, mortality or transmission dynamics. We describe considerations and methods for identifying ongoing coinfections to address this critical blind spot in disease risk management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Characterizing the Defense Hierarchy of Populus trichocarpa

The U.S. Departments of Energy and Agriculture are developing bioenergy crops as a sustainable alternative to traditional fossil fuels. Plant disease threatens this effort by inhibiting the efficient production of plant feedstocks for bioenergy. In particular, biotrophic Melampsora leaf rust pathogens can increase morbidity in Populus trichocarpa and its hybrids (aka poplars), the primary woody feedstocks for bioenergy. Controlling rust disease in plantations is thus critical to the success of the poplar bioenergy program. Current efforts to control rust disease focus on plant genetic resistance. However, with novel pathogenic variation generated by the global movement of pathogens and their hybridization, it is increasingly clear that controlling rust disease in a long-lived plant like Populus depends on our ability to understand and manage not only genes for rust resistance, but also short-lived plant microorganisms that contribute to defense against rust (aka “defense mutualists”). Our proposed research thus seeks to develop an integrative, hierarchical model of P. trichocarpa defense that integrates genetic resistance and defense mutualists. Our overarching hypothesis is that defense against Melampsora rust is biologically degenerate, with major and minor plant resistance genes, plant defense compounds, and defense mutualists within the microbiome each contributing to rust resistance under different circumstances. The specific aims of our study will test the placement of each of these factors in the defense hierarchy. Ultimately, it is our hope that disease management strategies harnessing both resistance genes and naturally occurring defense mutualists of P. trichocarpa, and an appreciation of the ecological circumstances in which each is effective, will maximize plant resistance and productivity while minimizing impacts on the surrounding ecological landscape.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Genetics and Genomics of Pathogen Resistance in Switchgrass (Final Report)

This project was funded by DOE under Grant no. DE-SC0016108. Originally approved for the 2016-2019 period, two no-cost extensions were solicited and approved, which prolonged the lifespan through July 2021. This final report informs on the results obtained so far from the research implemented. The research hinged on integrating genomics (genomic selection, RNAseq, virus-plant interactions) with classical genetics (conventional breeding) to incorporate durable resistance to fungal (rust) and viral (mosaic) diseases in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) populations being bred for bioenergy. Higher biomass yield, higher quality (low lignin content), and durable disease resistance are key features to make lignocellulosic switchgrass feedstocks economically competitive and sustainable. Genomic selection is being applied on three generations of a switchgrass population derived from crossing two ecotypes (Kanlow as lowland female and Summer as upland male) with differential performance in terms of biomass yield and quality, disease resistance, and winter survivability. Target populations were screened for rust and mosaic in field and/or lab and phenotyped for biomass yield and quality traits. Genetic analyses were applied across generations to capture the joint inheritance of the targeted traits and predict breeding values for parents and progeny with greater accuracy. Parental and a panel of different switchgrass populations were genotyped with the DArTseq technology to develop SNP (0, 1, 2) and in-silico (presence/absence) DArT markers. Rust inoculations techniques were developed and applied successfully on switchgrass. The original populations (Kanlow and Summer) were sequenced with RNAseq to capture the gene expression profiles across sequential time-points and appraise the basis of greater resistance in the Kanlow vs the Summer ecotype. Constructs of PMV and sPMV mosaic virus were assembled and tested first on proso millet to find the best protocol to use later on switchgrass. Results from the preliminary analyses indicate that 1) ample additive genetic variation is available for selection and improving this inter-ecotypic population for yield, quality, and disease traits, 2) significant gains are to be expected with the genetic correlations being favorable between yield and lignin content and between yield and disease ratings, 3) substantial differences exist in the genetic regions controlling rust resistance in the two ecotypes, 4) co-infection with PMV isolates from Nebraska and its satellite from Kansas elicit severe mosaic symptoms, and 5) two different genetic systems are responsible for imparting resistance to rust and virus in switchgrass.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Small Particle Aerosol Exposure of African Green Monkeys to MERS-CoV as a Model for Highly Pathogenic Coronavirus Infection

Emerging coronaviruses are a global public health threat because of the potential for person-to-person transmission and high mortality rates. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged in 2012, causing lethal respiratory disease in $\gg$35% of cases. Primate models of coronavirus disease are needed to support development of therapeutics, but few models exist that recapitulate severe disease. For initial development of a MERS-CoV primate model, 12 African green monkeys were exposed to 10 3 , 10 4 , or 10 5 PFU target doses of aerosolized MERS-CoV. We observed a dose-dependent increase of respiratory disease signs, although all 12 monkeys survived for the 28-day duration of the study. This study describes dosedependent effects of MERS-CoV infection of primates and uses a route of infection with potential relevance to MERSCoV transmission. Aerosol exposure of African green monkeys might provide a platform approach for the development of primate models of novel coronavirus diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km 2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Association of clonal hematopoiesis mutations with clinical outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) mutations are common among individuals without known hematologic disease. CH mutations have been associated with numerous adverse clinical outcomes across many different studies. We systematically reviewed the available literature for clinical outcomes associated with CH mutations in patients without hematologic disease. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus for eligible studies. Three investigators independently extracted the data, and each study was verified by a second author. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We identified 32 studies with 56 cohorts that examine the association between CH mutations and clinical outcomes. We conducted meta-analyses comparing outcomes among individuals with and without detectable CH mutations. We conducted meta-analyses for cardiovascular diseases (nine studies; HR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.26–2.07, p = .0002), hematologic malignancies (seven studies; HR = 5.59, 95% CI = 3.31–9.45, p < .0001), therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (four studies; HR = 7.55, 95% CI = 4.3–13.57, p < .001), and death (nine studies; HR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.2–1.5, p < .0001). The cardiovascular disease analysis was further stratified by variant allele fraction (VAF) and gene, which showed a statistically significant association only with a VAF of ≥ 10% (HR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.24–1.62, p < .0001), as well as statistically significant associations for each gene examined with the largest magnitude of effect found for CH mutations in JAK2 (HR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.84–6.68, p < .0001). Analysis of the association of CH mutations with hematologic malignancy demonstrated a numeric stepwise increase in risk with increasing VAF thresholds. This analysis strongly supports the association of CH mutations with a clinically meaningful increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes among individuals without hematologic disease, particularly with increasing VAF thresholds.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Restrictive spirometry pattern among construction trade workers

Spirometry-based studies of occupational lung disease have mostly focused on obstructive or mixed obstructive/restrictive outcomes. We wanted to determine if restrictive spirometry pattern (RSP) is associated with occupation and increased mortality. Study participants included 18,145 workers with demographic and smoking data and repeatable spirometry. The mortality analysis cohort included 15,445 workers with known vital status and cause of death through December 31, 2016. Stratified analyses explored RSP prevalence by demographic and clinical variables and trade. Log-binomial regression models explored RSP risk factors while controlling for important confounders such as smoking, obesity, and comorbidities. Cox regression models explored mortality risk by spirometry category. Prevalence of RSP was very high (28.6%). Mortality hazard ratios for RSP were 1.50 for all causes, 1.86 for cardiovascular diseases, 2.31 for respiratory diseases, and 1.66 for lung cancer. All construction trades except painters, machinists, and roofers had significantly elevated risk for RSP compared to our internal reference group. RSP was significantly associated with both parenchymal and pleural changes seen by chest X-ray. Construction trade workers are at significantly increased risk for RSP independent of obesity. Individuals with RSP are at increased risk for all-cause mortality as well as mortality attributable to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and lung cancer. RSP deserves greater attention in occupational medicine and epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Calibration and Validation of a Mechanistic COVID-19 Model for Translational Quantitative Systems Pharmacology – A Proof-of-Concept Model Development for Remdesivir

With the ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there is an urgent need to accelerate the traditional drug development process. Many studies identified potential COVID-19 therapies based on promising nonclinical data. However, the poor translatability from nonclinical to clinical settings has led to failures of many of these drug candidates in the clinical phase. In this study, we propose a mechanism-based, quantitative framework to translate nonclinical findings to clinical outcome. Adopting a modularized approach, this framework includes an in silico disease model for COVID-19 (virus infection and human immune responses) and a pharmacological component for COVID-19 therapies. Here, the disease model was able to reproduce important longitudinal clinical data for patients with mild and severe COVID-19, including viral titer, key immunological cytokines, antibody responses, and time courses of lymphopenia. Using remdesivir as a proof-of-concept example of model development for the pharmacological component, we developed a pharmacological model that describes the conversion of intravenously administered remdesivir as a prodrug to its active metabolite nucleoside triphosphate through intracellular metabolism and connected it to the COVID-19 disease model. After being calibrated with the placebo arm data, our model was independently and quantitatively able to predict the primary endpoint (time to recovery) of the remdesivir clinical study, Adaptive Covid-19 Clinical Trial (ACTT). Our work demonstrates the possibility of quantitatively predicting clinical outcome based on nonclinical data and mechanistic understanding of the disease and provides a modularized framework to aid in candidate drug selection and clinical trial design for COVID-19 therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Aggregation and analysis of indication-symptom relationships for drugs approved in the USA

Abstract Purpose Drug indications and disease symptoms often confound adverse event reports in real-world datasets, including electronic health records and reports in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS). A thorough, standardized set of indications and symptoms is needed to identify these confounders in such datasets for drug research and safety assessment. The aim of this study is to create a comprehensive list of drug-indication associations and disease-symptom associations using multiple resources, including existing databases and natural language processing. Methods Drug indications for drugs approved in the USA were extracted from two databases, RxNorm and Side Effect Resource (SIDER). Symptoms for these indications were extracted from MedlinePlus and using natural language processing from PubMed abstracts. Results A total of 1361 unique drugs, 1656 unique indications, and 2201 unique symptoms were extracted from a wide variety of MedDRA System Organ Classes. Text-mining precision was maximized at 0.65 by examining Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) scores of the disease-symptom associations. Conclusion The drug-indication associations and disease-symptom associations collected in this study may be useful in identifying confounders in other datasets, such as safety reports. With further refinement and additional drugs, indications, and symptoms, this dataset may become a quality resource for disease symptoms.

Punyala, Ananth↗

Integrated Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis Identifies Plasma Biomarkers of Hepatocellular Failure in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a form of liver failure with high short-term mortality. Recent results have shown that HNF4a defective function and systemic inflammation are major disease drivers of AH. Plasma biomarkers of hepatocyte function could be useful for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Herein an integrative analysis of hepatic RNAseq and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was performed to identify plasma protein signatures for mild and severe AH patients. Alcohol-related liver disease cirrhosis (ALD)(AC), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NALFD), and healthy subjects (HC) were used as comparator groups. Identified proteins primarily involved in hepatocellular function were decreased in AH patients which included hepatokines, clotting factors, complement cascade components, and hepatocyte growth activators. A protein signature of AH disease severity was identified including thrombin (THRB), hepatocyte growth factor alpha (HGFA), clusterin (CLUS), human serum factor H-related protein (FHR1) and kallistatin (KAIN), which exhibited large abundance shifts between severe and non-severe AH. The combination of THRB and HGFA discriminated between severe and non-severe AH with high sensitivity and specificity. These findings were correlated with the liver expression of genes encoding secreted proteins in a similar cohort, finding a highly consistent plasma protein signature reflecting HNF4A and HNF1A functions. This unbiased proteomic-transcriptome analysis identified plasma protein signatures and pathways associated with disease severity, reflecting HNF4A/1A activity useful for diagnostic assessment in AH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multi-modal characterization and simulation of human epileptic circuitry

Temporal lobe epilepsy is the fourth most common neurological disorder, with about 40% of patients not responding to pharmacological treatment. Increased cellular loss is linked to disease severity and pathological phenotypes such as heightened seizure propensity. While the hippocampus is the target of therapeutic interventions, the impact of the disease at the cellular level remains unclear. Here, we show that hippocampal granule cells change with disease progression as measured in living, resected hippocampal tissue excised from patients with epilepsy. We show that granule cells increase excitability and shorten response latency while also enlarging in cellular volume and spine density. Single-nucleus RNA sequencing combined with simulations ascribes the changes to three conductances: BK, Cav2.2, and Kir2.1. In a network model, we show that these changes related to disease progression bring the circuit into a more excitable state, while reversing them produces a less excitable, “early-disease-like” state.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Low Peripheral Blood Counts and Elevated Proinflammatory Cytokines Signal a Poor CD19 Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cell Response in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy has significantly improved outcomes for patients with relapsed/refractory B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R B-ALL). However, approximately 20% of patients fail to achieve a complete remission (CR), and some develop severe, life-threatening toxicities. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying both dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity is essential for optimizing patient management and improving therapeutic efficacy. This study aimed to (1) characterize cytokine profiles associated with dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity following CAR-T infusion, (2) examine the timing and trajectory of cytokine changes in relation to treatment outcomes, and evaluate potential strategies for mitigating toxicity and treatment failure. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of serum cytokine profiles in 86 adult and pediatric patients undergoing autologous CD19 CAR-T therapy for B-ALL. Patients were categorized into three groups: (1) Dysfunctional response—Patients who failed to achieve a minimal residual disease-negative CR (MRD-CR) by Day 63 or who experienced recurrence of CD19+ disease in the setting ongoing CAR-T cell detection before Day 63. (2) Functional response with severe cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and/or neurotoxicity (NTX)—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who experienced grade 3 or higher CRS or NTX. (3) Functional response without severe CRS or NTX—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who did not experience grade =3 CRS or NTX. Cytokine levels were measured during the first-week postinfusion and correlated with treatment efficacy, toxicity outcomes, complete blood counts, and CAR-T expansion dynamics. This analysis aimed to better understand how cytokine profiles relate to patient outcomes and immune responses in CAR-T therapy. Patients with dysfunctional response exhibited decreased neutrophils, platelets, and levels of granulocytic cytokines (suggestive of low bone marrow reserve) alongside elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines by Day 1. Functional response with severe toxicity patients showed a progressive rise in proinflammatory cytokines, reaching similar levels to dysfunctional response patients by Day 7. We observed that high cytokines at both the Day 1 and Day 7 time points were associated with poor survival. These findings remained significant when adjusting for high disease burden, a known predictor of severe inflammatory toxicity and lack of response. Early post-CAR-T infusion inflammation is associated with both dysfunctional response and severe toxicity—even after adjusting for disease burden. This suggests that inflammation, in addition to disease burden, plays a role in determining patient outcome. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing the pro-inflammatory state prior to or early after CAR-T cell infusion may improve outcomes for R/R B-ALL patients.

Serum cytokines↗

Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map

Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model’s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model’s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗