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DOE OSTI2021

Confrontation of Observation and Theory: High-frequency QPOs in X-Ray Binaries, Tidal Disruption Events, and Active Galactic Nuclei

In this paper, we compile observations of high-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) around black holes, both stellar and supermassive, and compare their positions in the parameter space of black hole mass, spin, and oscillation frequency. We find that supermassive black holes occupy a separate region of parameter space than stellar, and further, that QPOs seen around tidal disruption events rather than Seyfert-type active galactic nuclei (AGN) occupy an entirely different space. We then compare these results to the orbital resonance, diskoseismic, warped disk, and disk–jet coupling theoretical models for the origin of high-frequency QPOs. We find that while oscillations around stellar mass black holes are generally consistent with the above models, supermassive black holes are decidedly not. Oscillations seen in tidal disruption events are consistent with oscillations near the frequency of the innermost stable circular orbit, while QPOs in AGN are not accounted for by any of the physical models in consideration. This indicates that despite the scale invariance of accretion processes implied by a decades-wide correlation between QPO frequency and black hole mass, any theory of high-frequency QPOs must relate the frequency to more than just the mass and spin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory investigation of hydraulic fracturing in granitic rocks using active and passive seismic monitoring

SUMMARY Knowledge of the fracturing processes can be important for the optimization of pressurized fluid injection operations in the deep underground rock mass. Active and passive seismic monitoring techniques have been used in the field for tracking or mapping the propagating hydraulic fracture. Although both these monitoring techniques provide valuable information about the generated fracture network, it is difficult for either technique to comprehensibly identify the different processes associated with hydraulic fracturing. The combined active and passive monitoring has the potential for better characterization of the complex hydraulic fracturing phenomena. In this study, laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments with combined active and passive seismic monitoring were conducted on true triaxially loaded Barre granite cubes with different fluid injection rates. The seismic inelastic fracturing was detected by 16 passive acoustic emission sensors, where 3678 and 2370 seismic source events were detected for the high and low injection rate experiments, respectively. For active monitoring, strong variations in the attributes of signals were observed which were transmitted through four source–receiver pairs, placed both perpendicular and parallel to the generated hydraulic fracture. Positive velocity changes were observed for active sensor pairs with ray paths passing through the generated hydraulic fracture indicating fluid permeation, whereas isolated dry deformation was characterized by a slight but permanent velocity decrease. Compared to velocity, the energy of the active signals was 1–2 orders of magnitude more sensitive to different hydraulic fracturing processes. However, the sensitivity and signatures of the active signal attributes were found to be dependent on the frequency range and direction of ray path with respect to the location of the generated fracture network. Using the coupled evaluation of the active and passive signals we were able to systematically identify various hydraulic fracturing processes including: (1) aseismic deformation, (2) fracture initiation and fluid permeation, (3) pressure build-up, (4) fracture propagation and (5) pressure release and leak-off. The results of this study showed that combining the respective advantages of active and passive seismic techniques and using both of them to monitor the failure processes can facilitate a more comprehensive understanding and better control of the hydraulic stimulations in subsurface operations.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark of numerical modeling approaches on the systematic performance evaluation of wave energy converters

Different numerical modeling methods have been developed and applied to evaluate a variety of performance indicators of wave energy converters (WECs), including the power performance, structural loads, levelized cost of energy, etc. Based on the modeling fidelity, the commonly used numerical modeling approaches can be classified as linear modeling, weakly nonlinear modeling and fully nonlinear modeling approaches. Each method differs in accuracy and computational efficiency, making them suitable for different stages of WEC design. However, the selection of modeling approach could significantly impact evaluation outcomes. For instance, simplified linear models may underestimate structural loads or overestimate energy production in some operational conditions, potentially leading to less cost-effective designs. Given the widespread utilization of these models, it is essential to understand the uncertainties brought by them in performance evaluations. This work is dedicated to benchmarking different linear-potential-flow-based numerical models for evaluating the systematic performance of WECs. Three representative numerical modeling approaches are considered in this work, including linear frequency-domain modeling, statistically linearized spectral-domain modeling and Cummins equation-based nonlinear time-domain modeling. A generic point absorber WEC is considered as the research reference in this work, and different sea sites are taken into account. The numerical models are utilized to predict critical performance indicators, including power performance, the annual energy production, the capacity factor, the levelized cost of energy and the PTO fatigue loads. By comparing the results, this work identifies the uncertainties associated with different modeling approaches in evaluating WEC performance.

Fatigue↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resolution of a Few Problems in the Application of Quasilinear Theory to Calculating Diffusion Coefficients in Heliophysics

A theory of quasilinear diffusion for obliquely propagating electromagnetic waves was developed in the 1960's and applied in the 1970's to model scattering of relativistic electrons by a prescribed distribution of waves. In the latter work, a transformation of variables, from wavevector space to the temporal frequency and tangent of the wave normal angle, was used so that simple Gaussian functions of frequency and tangent of the wave normal angle could be multiplied together to define the distribution of wave power, although arbitrary distributions of power in these two variables is also permitted. Finally, in 2005, previous work was consolidated and has been widely used in heliophysics studies that require computation of quasilinear diffusion coefficients. Here it is shown that this transformation is inppropriate when the precise wave vector distribution is known. The correct transformation is derived and used to produce diffusion coefficients that can differ by orders of magnitude from those computed using the inappropriate transformation. The differences are largest when the distribution of wave power extends to wave normal angles near the resonance cone. When the ratio of the plasma frequency to the gyrofrequency is large, only low energies (keV) are affected, but as the ratio decreases higher energies (MeV) also show differences. It is also shown that the derivation from the 1960's uses a notation that results in the diffusion coefficients depending on the distribution of wave power with respect to the wave azimuthal angle whereas there should be no such dependence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

What Are the Similarities and Differences in Marine Boundary Layer Cloud and Drizzle Microphysical Properties During the ACE–ENA and MARCUS Field Campaigns?

This study compares macrophysical and microphysical properties of single-layered, liquid-dominant MBL clouds from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) (above 60°S) and the ARM East North Atlantic (ENA) site during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. A total of 1,136 (16.5% of clouds) and 6,034 5-min cloud samples are selected from MARCUS and ARM ENA in this study. MARCUS clouds have higher cloud-top heights, thicker cloud layers, larger liquid water path, and colder cloud temperatures than ENA. Thinner, warmer MBL clouds at ENA can contain higher layer-mean liquid water content due to higher cloud and ocean surface temperatures along with greater precipitable water vapor (PWV). MARCUS has a higher drizzle frequency rate (71.8%) than ENA (45.1%). Retrieved cloud and drizzle microphysical properties from each field campaign show key differences. MARCUS clouds feature smaller cloud droplets, whereas ENA clouds have larger cloud droplets, especially at the upper region of the cloud. From cloud top to cloud base, drizzle drop sizes increase while number concentrations decrease. Drizzle drop radius and number concentration decrease from cloud base to drizzle base due to net evaporation, and MARCUS' lower specific humidity leads to a higher drizzle base than ENA. In conclusion, the broader surface pressure and lower tropospheric stability (LTS) distributions during MARCUS have demonstrated that there are different synoptic patterns for selected cases during MARCUS with less PWV, while ENA is dominated by high pressure systems with nearly doubled PWV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Fluid and Kinetic Models of Partially Ionized Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection in partially ionized plasmas is a ubiquitous and important phenomena in both laboratory and astrophysical systems. Here, simulations of partially ionized magnetic reconnection with well-matched initial conditions are performed using both multi-fluid and fully-kinetic approaches. Despite similar initial conditions, the time-dependent evolution differs between the two models. In multi-fluid models, the reconnection rate locally obeys either a decoupled Sweet-Parker scaling, where neutrals are unimportant, or a fully coupled Sweet-Parker scaling, where neutrals and ions are strongly coupled, depending on the resistivity. In contrast, kinetic models show a faster reconnection rate that is proportional to the fully-coupled, bulk Alfv\'en speed, $v_A^\star$. These differences are interpreted as the result of operating in different collisional regimes. Multi-fluid simulations are found to maintain $\nu_{ni}L/v_A^\star \gtrsim 1$, where $\nu_{ni}$ is the neutral-ion collision frequency and $L$ is the time-dependent current sheet half-length. This strongly couples neutrals to the reconnection outflow, while kinetic simulations evolve to allow $\nu_{ni}L/v_A^\star < 1$, decoupling neutrals from the reconnection outflow. Differences in the way reconnection is triggered may explain these discrepancies.

Magnetic reconnection↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗

DOE OSTI2023

Amplitude- and frequency-dependent activation of layer II/III neurons by intracortical microstimulation

Intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) has been used for the development of brain machine interfaces. However, further understanding about the spatiotemporal responses of neurons to different electrical stimulation parameters is necessary to inform the design of optimal therapies. In this study, we employed in vivo electrophysiological recording, two-photon calcium imaging, and electric field simulation to evaluate the acute effect of ICMS on layer II/III neurons. Our results show that stimulation frequency non-linearly modulates neuronal responses, whereas the magnitude of responses is linearly correlated to the electric field strength and stimulation amplitude before reaching a steady state. Temporal dynamics of neurons’ responses depends more on stimulation frequency and their distance to the stimulation electrode. In addition, amplitude-dependent post-stimulation suppression was observed within ~500 μm of the stimulation electrode, as evidenced by both calcium imaging and local field potentials. These findings provide insights for selecting stimulation parameters to achieve desirable spatiotemporal specificity of ICMS.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electromagnetic power of lightning superbolts from Earth to space

Lightning superbolts are the most powerful and rare lightning events with intense optical emission, first identified from space. Superbolt events occurred in 2010-2018 could be localized by extracting the high energy tail of the lightning stroke signals measured by the very low frequency ground stations of the World-Wide Lightning Location Network. Here, we report electromagnetic observations of superbolts from space using Van Allen Probes satellite measurements, and ground measurements, and with two events measured both from ground and space. From burst-triggered measurements, we compute electric and magnetic power spectral density for very low frequency waves driven by superbolts, both on Earth and transmitted into space, demonstrating that superbolts transmit 10-1000 times more powerful very low frequency waves into space than typical strokes and revealing that their extreme nature is observed in space. We find several properties of superbolts that notably differ from most lightning flashes; a more symmetric first ground-wave peak due to a longer rise time, larger peak current, weaker decay of electromagnetic power density in space with distance, and a power mostly confined in the very low frequency range. Their signal is absent in space during day times and is received with a long-time delay on the Van Allen Probes. These results have implications for our understanding of lightning and superbolts, for ionosphere-magnetosphere wave transmission, wave propagation in space, and remote sensing of extreme events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning Based Frequency Stability Assessment in Power Grid with High Renewables

Frequency stability assessment is one critical aspect of power system security assessment. Traditional N-1 screening method is based on the simulations of a few typical daily and seasonal operation scenarios. However, the increasing integration of inverter-based renewables and the retirement of conventional synchronous generators result in decreasing system inertia and growing complexity of system operating conditions. Selecting a few typical operation scenarios cannot cover all operating conditions, and the time-domain simulation of all operation conditions requires tremendous time. This paper proposes a more efficient frequency stability assessment method based on deep learning. The affinity propagation clustering algorithm is used to divide the dataset into different clusters, so the selected dataset for training can cover the diversified operating conditions as much as possible. Also, feature normalization is applied to both the training dataset and testing dataset in order to remove any unnecessary bias. Especially, trained model based on full dataset normalization has bounded error in the prediction. The case study on the reduced 240-bus WECC system demonstrates that the proposed method can predict accurate frequency nadir with limited training dataset. The deep learning model using the revised feature normalization can predict more accurate frequency nadir than that using the traditional feature normalization and has very small maximum prediction error.

affinity propagation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stabilizing a strongly nonlinear structure through shaker dynamics in fixed frequency voltage control tests

Bifurcations are commonly encountered during force controlled swept and stepped sine testing of nonlinear structures, which generally leads to the so-called jump-down or jump-up phenomena between stable solutions. There are various experimental closed-loop control algorithms, such as control-based continuation and phase-locked loop, to stabilize dynamical systems through these bifurcations, but they generally rely on specialized control algorithms that are not readily available with many commercial data acquisition software packages. A recent method was developed to experimentally apply sequential continuation using the shaker voltage that can be readily deployed using commercially available software. By utilizing the stabilizing effects of electrodynamic shakers and the force dropout phenomena in fixed frequency voltage control sine tests, this approach has been demonstrated to stabilize the unstable branch of a nonlinear system with three branches, allowing for three multivalued solutions to be identified within a specific frequency bandwidth near resonance. Recent testing on a strongly nonlinear system with vibro-impact nonlinearity has revealed jumping behavior when performing sequential continuation along the voltage parameter, like the jump phenomena seen during more traditional force controlled swept and stepped sine testing. Here, this paper investigates the stabilizing effects of an electrodynamic shaker on strongly nonlinear structures in fixed frequency voltage control tests using both numerical and experimental methods. The harmonic balance method is applied to the coupled shaker-structure system with an electromechanical model to simulate the fixed voltage control tests and predict the stabilization for different parameters of the model. The simulated results are leveraged to inform the design of a set of experiments to demonstrate the stabilization characteristics on a fixture-pylon assembly with a vibro-impact nonlinearity. Through numerical simulation and experimental testing on two different strongly nonlinear systems, the various parameters that influence the stability of the coupled shaker-structure are revealed to better understand the performance of fixed frequency voltage control tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Tool Size Study for Computer-Controlled Optical Surfacing

Over the past few decades, computer-controlled optical surfacing (CCOS) systems have become more deterministic. A target surface profile can be predictably achieved with a combination of tools of different sizes. However, deciding the optimal set of tool sizes that will achieve the target residual error in the shortest run time is difficult, and no general guidance has been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we present a computer-assisted study on choosing the proper tool size for a given surface error map. First, we propose that the characteristic frequency ratio (CFR) can be used as a general measure of the correction capability of a tool over a surface map. Second, the performance of different CFRs is quantitatively studied with a computer simulation by applying them to guide the tool size selection for polishing a large number of randomly generated surface maps with similar initial spatial frequencies and root mean square errors. Finally, we find that CFR = 0.75 achieves the most stable trade-off between the total run time and the number of iterations and thus can be used as a general criterion in tool size selection for CCOS processes. To the best of our knowledge, the CFR is the first criterion that ties tool size selection to overall efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning for seismic low-frequency extrapolation

The cycle-skipping problem that plagues full waveform inversion (FWI) can be at least partially mitigated if low frequencies (which encode the kinematics of wave propagation in seismic data) are recorded. However, seismic sources and receivers are band-limited, so seismic data does not generally include signals down to 0 Hz. To improve our ability to solve the seismic inverse problem, one can synthesize this missing low-frequency (LF) content from the recorded high-frequency (HF) data using machine learning (ML) models. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) demonstrate impressive ability to perform low frequency extrapolation. However, such models require powerful hardware (GPU machines) and careful training. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of three different ML models that do not require GPU machines, namely, random forest, Gaussian process regression and gradient boosting, on both synthetic and real data. Experimental results on two synthetic data sets (generated from a low velocity lens embedded in a homogeneous medium, and the Marmousi model) demonstrate that FWI applied to the extrapolated data consistently improves inversion accuracy relative to FWI applied to the original data sets that do not contain low frequencies. Application of low-frequency extrapolation to real data from the Northwest Shelf of Australia demonstrates that tree-based ML models such as gradient boosting can outperform CNNs in terms of both accuracy and computational cost on non-GPU architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Factors That Influence Variability in Stress-Drop Measurements Using Spectral Decomposition and Spectral-Ratio Methods for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop is a fundamental parameter related to earthquake source physics, but is hard to measure accurately. To better understand how different factors influence stress-drop measurements, we compare two different methods using the Ridgecrest stress-drop validation data set: spectral decomposition (SD) and spectral ratio (SR), each with different processing options. Here, we also examine the influence of spectral complexity on source parameter measurement. Applying the SD method, we find that frequency bandwidth and time-window length could influence spectral magnitude calibration, while depth-dependent attenuation is important to correctly map stress-drop variations. For the SR method, we find that the selected source model has limited influence on the measurements; however, the Boatwright model tends to produce smaller standard deviation and larger magnitude dependence than the Brune model. Variance reduction threshold, frequency bandwidth, and time-window length, if chosen within an appropriate parameter range, have limited influence on source parameter measurement. For both methods, wave type, attenuation correction, and spectral complexity strongly influence the result. The scale factor that quantifies the magnitude dependence of stress drop show large variations with different processing options, and earthquakes with complex source spectra deviating from the Brune-type source models tend to have larger scale factor than earthquakes without complexity. Based on these detailed comparisons, we make a few specific suggestions for data processing workflows that could help future studies of source parameters and interpretations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantum critical dynamics of a Josephson junction at the topological transition

We find the admittance Y(ω) of a Josephson junction at or near a topological transition. The dependence of the admittance on frequency and temperature at the critical point is universal and determined by the symmetries of the system. Despite the absence of a spectral gap at the transition, the dissipative response may remain weak at low energies: ReY(ω)∝max(ω,T) 2 . This behavior is strikingly different from the electromagnetic response of a normal metal. Away from the critical point, the scaling functions for the dependence of the admittance on frequency and temperature are controlled by at most two parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spatially varying colloidal phase behavior on multi-dimensional energy landscapes

A method is reported to determine equilibrium concentration profiles and local phase behavior for colloids on multi-dimensional energy landscapes. A general expression is derived based on local particle concentration and osmotic pressure differences that are balanced by forces on colloids due to energy landscape gradients. This analysis is applied to colloidal particles in high frequency AC electric fields within octupolar electrodes, where the energy landscape can be shaped in two dimensions. These results are also directly applicable to any particles having induced dipoles in spatially non-uniform electromagnetic fields. Predictions based on modelling colloids with an effective hard disk equation of state indicate inhomogeneous solid and fluid states coexisting on different shaped energy landscapes including multiple minima. Model predictions show excellent agreement with time-averaged Brownian Dynamic simulations at equilibrium. Findings demonstrate a general approach to understand colloidal phase behavior on energy landscapes due to external fields, which could enable control of colloidal microstructure on morphing energy landscapes and the inverse design of fields to assemble hierarchically structured colloidal materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Origin of spin-driven ferroelectricity and effect of external pressure on the complex magnetism of the 6⁢ H perovskite Ba 3 ⁢Ho⁢Ru 2⁢ O 9

The compound Ba 3 HoRu 2 O 9 magnetically orders at 50 K (T N1 ), followed by another complex magnetic ordering at 10.2 K (T N2 ). The second magnetic phase transition was characterized by the coexistence of two competing magnetic ground states associated with two different magnetic wave vectors (K 1 = 0.5 0 0 and K 2 = 0.25 0.25 0). The multiferroicity and magnetoelectric coupling were predicted below T N2 in these 4d-based materials. Here, in this work, we have discussed the origin of spin-driven ferroelectricity, which is not known yet, and the nature of magnetoelectric domains. We have investigated the compound through time-of-flight neutron diffraction, synchrotron x-ray diffraction (XRD), ac susceptibility, frequency-dependent complex dielectric spectroscopy, and dc magnetization under external pressure. We have demonstrated that the noncollinear structure involving two different magnetic ions, Ru (4d) and Ho (4f), breaks the spatial inversion symmetry via inverse Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya (DM) interaction through strong 4d-4f magnetic correlation, which shifts the oxygen atoms and results in nonzero polarization. Such an observation of inverse DM interaction from two different magnetic ions which cause ferroelectricity is rarely observed. The stronger spin-orbit coupling of 4d orbital might play a major role in creating DM interaction of noncollinear spins. We have systematically studied the spin and dipolar dynamics, which exhibit intriguing behavior with shorter coherence lengths of second magnetic phase associated with the k 2 wave vector. The results manifest the development of finite-size magnetoelectric domains instead of true long-range ordering, which justifies the experimentally obtained low value of ferroelectric polarization. The lattice parameters and volume show a sharp anomaly at T N2 obtained by analyzing the temperature-dependence XRD, which is consistent with the ferroelectric transition, predicting a noncentrosymmetric space group, $P\bar{6}2c$, for this compound. Furthermore, we have investigated the effect of external pressure on this complex magnetism. The result reveals an enhancement of ordering temperature by the application of external pressure (~1.6 K/GPa). The external pressure might favor stabilizing the magnetic ground state associated with second magnetic phase. Our study shows an unconventional mechanism of spin-driven ferroelectricity involving inverse DM interaction between Ru (4d) and Ho (4f) magnetic ions due to strong 4d-4f cross coupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗