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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.

Cohen, Stuart↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human limits in machine learning: prediction of potato yield and disease using soil microbiome data

Abstract Background The preservation of soil health is a critical challenge in the 21st century due to its significant impact on agriculture, human health, and biodiversity. We provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into the predictive potential of machine learning models for understanding the connections between soil and biological phenotypes. We investigate an integrative framework performing accurate machine learning-based prediction of plant performance from biological, chemical, and physical properties of the soil via two models: random forest and Bayesian neural network. Results Prediction improves when we add environmental features, such as soil properties and microbial density, along with microbiome data. Different preprocessing strategies show that human decisions significantly impact predictive performance. We show that the naive total sum scaling normalization that is commonly used in microbiome research is one of the optimal strategies to maximize predictive power. Also, we find that accurately defined labels are more important than normalization, taxonomic level, or model characteristics. ML performance is limited when humans can’t classify samples accurately. Lastly, we provide domain scientists via a full model selection decision tree to identify the human choices that optimize model prediction power. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating diverse environmental features and careful data preprocessing in enhancing the predictive power of machine learning models for soil and biological phenotype connections. This approach can significantly contribute to advancing agricultural practices and soil health management.

Aghdam, Rosa↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

The AEOLUS Center is dedicated to developing a unified optimization-under-uncertainty framework for (1) learning predictive models from data and (2) optimizing experiments, processes, and designs governed by these models, all driven by complex, uncertain energy systems. AEOLUS addressed the critical need for principled, rigorous, scalable, and structure-exploiting capabilities for exploring parameter and decision spaces of complex forward simulation models---the so-called outer loop. This report summarizes the work done under DE-SC0021077 on (1) nonlocal models for solidification problems, (2) a multifidelity method for a nonlocal diffusion model, and (3) multifidelity Monte Carlo methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems (Final Report for AEOLUS)

The AEOLUS Center is dedicated to developing a unified optimization-under-uncertainty framework for: (1) learning predictive models from data; and (2) optimizing experiments, processes, and designs governed by these models, all driven by complex, uncertain energy systems. AEOLUS addresses the critical need for principled, rigorous, scalable, and structure-exploiting capabilities for exploring parameter and decision spaces of complex forward simulation models. This report summarizes the key highlights of our research during the period of performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Cognitive engineering models in space systems

NASA space systems, including mission operations on the ground and in space, are complex, dynamic, predominantly automated systems in which the human operator is a supervisory controller. The human operator monitors and fine-tunes computer-based control systems and is responsible for ensuring safe and efficient system operation. In such systems, the potential consequences of human mistakes and errors may be very large, and low probability of such events is likely. Thus, models of cognitive functions in complex systems are needed to describe human performance and form the theoretical basis of operator workstation design, including displays, controls, and decision support aids. The operator function model represents normative operator behavior-expected operator activities given current system state. The extension of the theoretical structure of the operator function model and its application to NASA Johnson mission operations and space station applications is discussed.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Fidelity Stochastic Economic Dispatch for Operating Low Carbon Power Grids

Grid operators can address the inherently stochastic nature of renewables by solving a two-stage stochastic programming model that minimizes the cost of dispatch decisions while accounting for the complex grid dynamics. It is common to use a sample average approximation to estimate the expectation of the second stage costs in this model. However, the large sample count needed for numerical accuracy makes effective modeling large-scale electric grids computationally intractable. We introduce a control variate multi-fidelity estimator for the second-stage recourse that enables high quality dispatch decisions in real-time with a reduced computational burden. We obtain a hierarchy of model fidelities by linearizing the AC power flow system representation to DC power flow, and by relaxing transmission and voltage network constraints. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on a synthetic grid with 73 buses against a deterministic baseline with persistence forecast and a high-fidelity reference. Our analysis shows a computational speed-up of 7.62x with a minimal loss in accuracy. The multi-fidelity method is well suited to fidelity combinations that use a simplified network topology in their lower fidelity model and is an attractive option for applications where accurate grid modeling needed on a limited computational budget.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

Kim, Junyung↗
DOE OSTI2026

The birth of a field through a marriage of scales: urban meteorological modeling meets regional climate modeling

Urban meteorological modeling and regional climate modeling developed largely independently, with each discipline addressing different aspects of atmospheric processes across space and time. In this review, I show that urban climate modeling did not arise as a simple scaling extension of urban meteorological modeling or an add-on to regional climate modeling, but instead emerged through the selective inheritance of complementary strengths from its parents after both disciplines reached sufficient methodological maturity. By tracing the parallel evolution of these disciplines, I demonstrate that urban climate modeling inherited the physically explicit treatment of the built environment developed within urban meteorological modeling, and the hierarchical scale translation and climatological framing that matured within regional climate modeling, allowing urban effects to influence climate-relevant outcomes. Building on this synthesis, I propose an objective, and methodologically-grounded definition of urban climate modeling that distinguishes it from urban meteorological modeling. This distinction is increasingly important as urban climate data informs decisions with long-lived societal consequences, and as ambiguity in terminology risks conflating fundamentally different modeling frameworks with distinct physical meaning and decision relevance. In addition to a clarifying definition, this review outlines a research framework for advancing urban climate modeling through scale-aware coupling strategies that preserve physically consistent urban-atmosphere interactions.

regional climate↗
NASA NTRS2019

Shockwave/Boundary-Layer Interaction Studies Performed in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel

This paper highlights results from a collaborative study performed by The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) and NASA Langley Research Center on the Shockwave/Boundary-Layer Interaction (SWBLI) generated by a cylindrical protuberance on a flat plate in a Mach 6 flow. The study was performed in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center and consisted of two separate entries. In the first entry, simultaneous high-speed schlieren and high-speed pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) imaging – which was performed for the first time in the 20-Inch Mach 6 facility at NASA Langley – were performed as well as simultaneous high-speed schlieren and oil-flow imaging. In the second entry, the model configuration was modified to increase the size of the interaction region. High-speed schlieren and infrared thermography (IR) surface imaging were performed in this second entry. The goal of these tests was to characterize the SBLI in the presence of a laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layer using high-speed optical imaging techniques. AoA = sting angle-of-attack (°) dcylinder = cylinder diameter (mm) dtrip = cylindrical tripping element diameter (mm) Δshock = shock stand-off distance (mm) hcylinder = cylinder height (mm) htrip = cylindrical tripping element height (mm) HSS = high-speed schlieren M∞ = freestream Mach number PSP = pressure-sensitive paint Re∞ = freestream unit Reynolds number (m-1) SWBLI = shockwave/boundary-layer interaction θplate = model plate angle (°) Introduction his paper highlights two experimental entries performed in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Blowdown Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center in collaboration with The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI). The purpose of these entries was to characterize the dynamic shockwave/boundary-layer interaction (SWBLI) between a vertical cylinder on a flat plate and laminar, transitional (XSWBLI), and turbulent (SWTBLI) boundary layers with a freestream Mach number of 6 using non-intrusive optical diagnostics. Experiments performed by Murphree et al.1,2 were among the first to specifically characterize XSWBLI induced by a vertical cylinder on a flat plate geometry using several optical measurement techniques. Recent optical studies of XSWBLI phenomenon have been performed by UTSI at Mach 2 in their low-enthalpy blow wind tunnel3-8 and by Texas A&M University and UTSI at Mach numbers of 6 and 7 in their Adjustable Contour Expansion wind tunnel.9 The experiments described in this paper were intended to complement previous studies by expanding the freestream unit Reynolds number range, Re∞, over which the XSWBLI phenomena has been observed. Additionally these experiments, made possible under NASA’s new facility funding model under the Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project, promoted collaboration between university and NASA researchers. The initial entry in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley occurred in December of 2016. Originally, testing was to occur in November of 2016 in the 31-Inch Mach 10 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley. This facility was chosen so that the XSWBLI phenomenon could be observed at much higher Mach numbers than had previously been attempted in ground test experiments. The model selected for this experiment, a 10° half-angle wedge with a sharp leading edge (described in detail in section II.B), had previously been used by Danehy et al. [10] for boundary layer transition studies using the nitric oxide planar laser-induced fluorescence (NO PLIF) flow visualization technique. In that work, it was determined that transition could be induced downstream of a single htrip = 1-mm tall, dtrip = 4-mm diameter cylindrical tripping element and that the streamwise location of the transition could be changed for a single Re∞ by changing the model angle-of-attack (AoA) (see Fig. A3 in Ref. [10] for more details). Based on the findings of that work, a decision was made to use the wedge model with the cylindrical tripping element to trip the boundary layer flow ahead of a cylindrical protuberance in order to achieve a XSWBLI. Unfortunately, the 31-Inch Mach 10 facility had been taken offline for repairs in October of 2016 and a decision was made to move the test to the 20-Inch Mach 6 facility. Since the behavior of the boundary layer with the chosen model configuration had not been studied before in that facility and the available test time was limited, the entry was considered to be exploratory and was used to collect spatially-resolved and time-resolved flow and surface visualization data that would be used to inform a second entry. Test techniques included simultaneous high-speed schlieren (HSS) captured at 160 kHz and high-speed pressure sensitive paint captured at 10 kHz as well as oil flow visualization, captured at 750 Hz. The second entry in the 20-Inch Mach 6 facility occurred in June and July of 2017. In this follow-on test, modifications to the wind tunnel model were made based on observations made during the first entry and included removing the cylindrical tripping element, increasing the size of the cylinder used to induce the SWBLI to increase the size of the interaction while simultaneously improving spatial resolution, and using a swept ramp array, similar to that described in Ref. [11], to trip the flow to turbulence. Simultaneous HSS (captured at 140 kHz, 100 kHz, and 40 kHz) and conventional IR thermography (captured at 30 Hz) imaging were performed simultaneously in this follow-on entry. This paper is intended to serve as a summary of the work performed during these two entries, to detail lessons learned from each entry, and to highlight some of the datasets acquired. Details on the experimental setup, model configuration, and techniques used are provided. Papers providing a more rigorous analysis of data acquired during the second entry, including statistical, spectral, and modal decomposition methods, can be found in Refs. [12,13]. An entry examining XSWBLI in the 31-Inch Mach 10 Blowdown Wind Tunnel facility is currently planned for mid-to-late calendar year 2019, pending the success of facility repairs. The work performed and described in this paper and the upcoming entry in the 31-Inch Mach 10 facility at NASA Langley have been made possible by NASA’s new facility funding model under the Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project. Wind Tunnel Facility All experiments discussed in this paper were performed in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. Specific details pertaining to this facility can be found in Refs. [14,15], with only a brief description of the facility provided here. For both entries, the nominal freestream unit Reynolds number was varied between 1.8×106 m-1 (0.5×106 ft-1) and 26.3×106 m-1 (8×106 ft-1). The nominal stagnation pressure was varied between 0.21 MPa and 3.33 MPa and the nominal stagnation temperature was varied between 480 K and 520 K to achieve the desired Re∞ condition. For all runs, the nominal freestream Mach number was 6. The nearly square test section is 520.7-mm (20.5-inches) wide by 508-mm (20-inches) high. Two 431.8-mm (17-inch) diameter windows made of Corning 7940, Grade 5F schlieren-quality glass serve as the side walls of the tunnel and provide optical access for the high-speed schlieren measurements. A rectangular window made of the same material as the side windows served as the top wall of the test section and provided optical access for the high-speed PSP and oil flow measurements. For the second entry, this top window was replaced with a Zinc Selenide (ZnSe) window with an anti-reflection coating capable of passing IR wavelengths between 8μm and 12μm with greater than 98% transmittance. The model was sting supported by a strut attached to a hydraulic system that allows for the model pitch angle to be adjusted between -5° to +55°. For the first entry, an initial pitch/pause sweep of the model AoA was performed to observe the resulting SWBLI. Ultimately, however, the sting pitch angle for this entry was fixed at +10.0° so that the angle of the top surface of the wedge relative to the streamwise axis of the tunnel (referred to herein as the plate angle, θplate), was θplate = 0°. For the second entry, θplate = 0° and θplate = -13.25° were initially tested with the swept ramp array (discussed in the following section) to determine which orientation produced conditions most favorable for XSWBLI to occur based on the heating signatures observed over the top surface of the model in the IR thermography images. Based on these initial tests, θplate = -13.25° was set for the remainder of the runs in the second entry. For both entries, any model changes were performed in a housing located beneath the closed test section. Prior to performing a run of the tunnel, the housing was sealed and the tunnel started. Once the appropriate freestream conditions were achieved, the model was injected into the test section using a hydraulic injection system. B. Model Geometry For all runs, a 10° half-angle (20° full-angle) wedge model with a sharp leading edge was used. The model is described in detail in Refs. [10,16]. The top surface of the sharp leading edge of the model extended 47.8 mm from its upstream-most edge to a junction with the upstream edge of a stainless steel top plate that then extended an (a) (c) (b) Fig. 1 (a) Schematic of top surface of wedge model with gas seeding insert, (b) perspective view of the model in the 20-Inch Mach 6 tunnel with centerline pressure orifices on sharp leading edge, and (c) a perspective view of the model with stainless steel (top) and SLA middle insert (bottom) during the first entry. Flow occurs from left to right.

Bathel, Brett F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long duration battery sizing, siting, and operation under wildfire risk using progressive hedging

Battery sizing and siting problems are computationally challenging due to the need to make long-term planning decisions that are cognizant of short-term operational decisions. This paper considers sizing, siting, and operating batteries in a power grid to maximize their benefits, including price arbitrage and load shed mitigation, during both normal operations and periods with high wildfire ignition risk. Here we formulate a multi-scenario optimization problem for long duration battery storage while considering the possibility of load shedding during Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events that de-energize lines to mitigate severe wildfire ignition risk. To enable a computationally scalable solution of this problem with many scenarios of wildfire risk and power injection variability, we develop a customized temporal decomposition method based on a progressive hedging framework. Extending traditional progressive hedging techniques, we consider coupling in both placement variables across all scenarios and state-of-charge variables at temporal boundaries. This enforces consistency across scenarios while enabling parallel computations despite both spatial and temporal coupling. The proposed decomposition facilitates efficient and scalable modeling of a full year of hourly operational decisions to inform the sizing and siting of batteries. With this decomposition, we model a year of hourly operational decisions to inform optimal battery placement for a 240-bus WECC model in under 70 min of wall-clock time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Dynamic Digital Twin for Test Scenario Generation

Vehicle testing has been an important part in the development of both highly automated vehicles (HAV) and advanced driving assistant systems (ADAS). Obtaining a good representation of the Vehicle Under Test (VUT) is crucial for test scenario library generation (TSLG). Current vehicle testing methods often involve calibrating car-following models using vehicle trajectory data to create static representations that cannot be dynamically updated. For instance, when multiple vehicle trajectories are collected, it is difficult to automatically determine whether a new trajectory improves the model's representativeness or degrades its accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a dynamically updated digital twin modeling framework featuring an adaptive mechanism that evaluates new trajectory data. This mechanism can decide whether to incorporate newly collected data into the current model or create a separate digital twin model when the trajectory significantly differs from prior data. Vehicle location, speed, and acceleration extracted from the newly collected trajectory data are used to support the dynamic update decision. By integrating this digital twin model into the test library generation process, we demonstrate its ability to assist in generating test libraries while effectively handling newly collected data.

Chen, Hanlin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165087715)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Frequency Analysis of Simulated versus Observed Variability in Tropospheric Temperature

Studies seeking to identify a human-caused global warming signal generally rely on climate model estimates of the “noise” of intrinsic natural variability. Assessing the reliability of these noise estimates is of critical importance. We evaluate here the statistical significance of differences between climate model and observational natural variability spectra for global-mean mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT). We use TMT information from satellites and large multimodel ensembles of forced and unforced simulations. Our main goal is to explore the sensitivity of model-versus-data spectral comparisons to a wide range of subjective decisions. These include the choice of satellite and climate model TMT datasets, the method for separating signal and noise, the frequency range considered, and the statistical model used to represent observed natural variability. Of particular interest is the amplitude of the interdecadal noise against which an anthropogenic tropospheric warming signal must be detected. We find that on time scales of 5–20 years, observed TMT variability is (on average) overestimated by the last two generations of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This result is relatively insensitive to different plausible analyst choices, enhancing confidence in previous claims of detectable anthropogenic warming of the troposphere and indicating that these claims may be conservative. A further key finding is that two commonly used statistical models of short-term and long-term memory have deficiencies in their ability to capture the complex shape of observed TMT spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters

Abstract Climate change is having significant impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and carbon budgets, and in the Arctic may drive a shift from an historic carbon sink to a source. Large uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to forecast Arctic changes demonstrate the challenges of determining the timing and extent of this possible switch. This spread in model predictions can limit the ability of TBMs to guide management and policy decisions. One of the most influential sources of model uncertainty is model parameterization. Parameter uncertainty results in part from a mismatch between available data in databases and model needs. We identify that mismatch for three TBMs, DVM-DOS-TEM, SIPNET and ED2, and four databases with information on Arctic and boreal above- and belowground traits that may be applied to model parametrization. However, focusing solely on such data gaps can introduce biases towards simple models and ignores structural model uncertainty, another main source for model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the Arctic and boreal ecosystem that includes unquantified, and thus unmodeled, processes. We map model parameters to processes in the CLD and assess parameter vulnerability via the internal network structure. One important substructure, feed forward loops (FFLs), describe processes that are linked both directly and indirectly. When the model parameters are data-informed, these indirect processes might be implicitly included in the model, but if not, they have the potential to introduce significant model uncertainty. We find that the parameters describing the impact of local temperature on microbial activity are associated with a particularly high number of FFLs but are not constrained well by existing data. By employing ecological models of varying complexity, databases, and network methods, we identify the key parameters responsible for limited model accuracy. They should be prioritized for future data sampling to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Strategy for Integrating a Large Finite Element Model Using MSC NASTRAN/PATRAN: X-33 Lessons Learned

The X-33 vehicle is an advanced technology demonstrator sponsored by NASA. For the past 3 years the Structural Dynamics and Loads Branch of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has had the task of integrating the X-33 vehicle structural finite element model. In that time, five versions of the integrated vehicle model have been produced and a strategy has evolved that would benefit anyone given the task of integrating structural finite element models that have been generated by various modelers and companies. The strategy that has been presented here consists of six decisions that need to be made: purpose of models, units, common materials list, model numbering, interface control, and archive format. This strategy has been proven and expanded from experience on the X-33 vehicle.

McGhee, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Continuously Improving Parametric Modeling with Historical Data on the ICESat-2 Mission

This paper delves into the details of the Joint Confidence Level (JCL) process performed for the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)-2 mission and how past performance was incorporated into subsequent JCL models to enable the project to continuously analyze potential slips to their launch readiness date (LRD). One year prior to the mission Preliminary Review (mPDR), the JCL model development process began. The first model was well received at the mPDR, held on October 10, 2012, and the input received by the Standing Review Board was incorporated into the model for the official data drop for key decision point (KDP)-C. The 70% JCL results of the October 2012 mPDR model forecast an LRD of February 2017 and associated cost of $830M. This result in 2012 immediately highlighted potential challenges with the project-planned LRD of July 2016. The year following the mPDR, the project had sustained a oneyear slip in the LRD due to problematic systems engineering requirement issues which impacted all project subsystems. This slip moved the project planned LRD from July 2016 to July 2017, an additional 5 months beyond the 2012 model’s 70% JCL result for the LRD of February 2017. As the project was quickly approaching the mission Critical Design Review (mCDR), the need for reliable JCL results increased significantly. The project held discussions on the JCL modeling process and focused on the input uncertainty distributions. Specifically, to identify the uncertainty distributions that the 2012 mPDR model would have needed to produce a 70% LRD result of July 2017. This led the project to compare multiple uncertainty distributions, and ultimately spurred the project to utilize uncertainty distributions that incorporated project past performance and historical data to forecast potential LRD slips. The revised results, created in 2014 and utilizing the new uncertainty distributions, showed that with 70% confidence, the ICESat-2 mission would launch in August 2018 with a cost of $1,044M. Today, ICESat-2 is scheduled to launch on September 15, 2018 with a project management (PM) agreement value of $1,056M. This illustrates how a JCL model can be continuously improved to produce valuable results for a project, even in cases of LRD delays. The primary reason for the ICESat-2 LRD delay is due to a laser failure on the primary instrument. Laser failure was one of the highest risk and uncertainty drivers within the JCL model. The project placed the most risk in this area of the model, and the model further identified the laser as the top risk driver and contributor to the LRD result. This further illustrates how a JCL can be used to predict and quantify possible issues on new technology missions.

Krygiel, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1990

Microgravity acceleration modeling for orbital systems

In view of the decisive importance of a disturbance-free environment on the Space Station, and on other orbital systems, for materials processing experiments, a theoretical and semi-experimental analysis of the acceleration environment to be expected on large orbiting spacecraft was undertaken. A unified model of such spacecraft cannot be established; therefore, a number of sub-models representing major components of typical large spacecraft must be investigated. In order to obtain experimental data of forces, a typical spacecraft - an engineering model of the Spacelab - was suspended on long ropes in a high-bay hangar, and equipped with a number of accelerometers. Active components on the Spacelab (fans, pumps, air conditioners, valves, levers) were operated, and astronautics moved boxes, drawers, sleds, and their own bodies. Generally speaking, the response of the Spacelab structure was very similar to the environment measured on Spacelabs SL-1, SL-2, and D-1. At frequencies in the broad range between 1 and about 100 Hz, acceleration peaks reached values of 10(exp -3) and 10(exp -2) g sub o, and even higher.

Knabe, Walter↗